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  • Festival in news: Harela Festival

    Villagers across Uttarakhand celebrated Harela, a festival of greenery, peace, prosperity and environmental conservation.

    Harela Festival

    • Harela means ‘day of green’ and is celebrated in the month of Shravan (the fifth month of the Hindu lunar calendar) to worship Lord Shiva and Goddess Parvati.
    • People across Uttarakhand, especially the Kumaun region, associate greenery with prosperity.
    • The seeds of five to seven types of crops —  maize, til (sesame), urad (black gram), mustard, oats —  are sown in donas (bowl made of leaves) or ringalare (hill bamboo baskets) nine days before the festival.
    • They are harvested on the ninth day and distributed to neighbours, friends and relatives.
    • The flourish of the crops symbolizes prosperity in the year ahead.
    • People make clay statues of Lord Shiva and Goddess Parvati, known as Dikare, and worship them a day before the festival.
    • Harela is also linked to the Barahnaza system (12 types of crops), a crop diversification technique followed in the region.

    Answer this PYQ in the comment box:

    Q.Consider the following pairs:
    Tradition: State
    1. Chapchar Kut: festival Mizoram
    2. Khongjom Parba ballad: Manipur
    3. Thang Ta dance: Sikkim
    Which of the pairs given above is/are correct?

    (a) 1 only
    (b) 1 and 2
    (c) 3 only
    (d) 2 and 3

  • 22nd July 2021| Daily Answer Writing Enhancement(AWE)

    Topics for Today’s questions:

    GS-1  Role of women and women’s organization.

    GS-2  India and its neighborhood- relations.

    GS-3  Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization, of resources, growth, development and employment.

     GS-4  Public/Civil service values and Ethics in Public administration: Status and problems; ethical concerns and dilemmas in government and private institutions;

     

    Questions:

    Question 1)

     

    Q.1) Violence and discrimination against women justify strong laws, however there are instances when such laws are also being misused. Why do such issues exist in the Indian society? Discuss the reasons behind it. (10 Marks)

     

    Question 2)

    Q.2) In a rapidly shifting Afghan geopolitical landscape, outreach to the Taliban is a necessity rather than an option for India. In light of this, examine the reasons for India’s hesitancy in its engagement with the Taliban and also explain why engaging the Taliban is necessary for India. (10 Marks)

    Question 3)

    Q.3) What are the regulatory changes the RBI seeks to make in the regulation of the microfinance sector proposed in its consultation document? Also give suggestions to strengthen the framework. (10 Marks)

    Question 4)  

    Q.4) What do you understand by public service values? Name three public service values which you think are important for civil servants. Also, explain their utility for civil servants? (10 Marks)

    NOTE- Since it’s a two month program last date to write answers is July 30th. All the questions will be evaluated latest by August 5th.
    After that this program will end as we need to focus on Prelims. So write all the answers before 30th July.

    HOW TO ATTEMPT ANSWERS IN DAILY ANSWER WRITING ENHANCEMENT(AWE)?

    1. Daily 4 questions from General studies 1, 2, 3, and 4 will be provided to you.

    2. A Mentor’s Comment will be available for all answers. This can be used as a guidance tool but we encourage you to write original answers.

    3. You can write your answer on an A4 sheet and scan/click pictures of the same.

    4.  Upload the scanned answer in the comment section of the same question.

    5. Along with the scanned answer, please share your Razor payment ID, so that paid members are given priority.

    6. If you upload the answer on the same day like the answer of 1st June is uploaded on 1st June then your answer will be checked within 72 hours. Also, reviews will be in the order of submission- First come first serve basis

    7. If you are writing answers late, for example, 1st June is uploaded on 3rd June, then these answers will be evaluated as per the mentor’s schedule.

    8. We encourage you to write answers on the same day. However, if you are uploading an answer late then tag the mentor like @Swatantra so that the mentor is notified about your answer.

    *In case your answer is not reviewed, reply to your answer saying *NOT CHECKED*. Swatantra Sir’s tag is available, tag him.

    For the philosophy of AWE and payment: 

    CLICK HERE To join Daily AWE

  • How To Start Preparation For IAS Exam – A Complete Guide To UPSC Civil Services Exam for Beginners & Working Professionals || Fill Registration form and get a Personalised Timetable till Prelims 2022 & Initial Study Material to begin Preparation

    Key Takeaways:

    1. Civilsdaily Monthly Magazine (Latest Two Months)
    2. Mentorship Call for Personlised Daily Timetable
    3. Beginners Guide / All Important sample Videos and Notes
    4. PDFs of Important Go-To Subjects to Begin with.

    UPSC Civil Services Exam for the recruitment of IAS, IFS, IRS and 21 other services is one of the most difficult exams in India. More than 10 Lakh aspirants give the UPSC exam every year making the exam competitive. But that does not mean YOU cannot crack it!

    Here’s what you need to know before you start preparing for UPSC Exam.

    Get your personalised daily timetable and initial study material

    FACT: UPSC Civil Service exam requires Hard Work + Strategy + Guidance This is the Holy Trinity that will help you become an IAS officer. 

    So, how do you start?

    1) The UPSC Exam Schedule: 

    UPSC exam is held in 3 stages – Prelims, Mains, And Interview. Prelims are based on objective questions, Mains is subjective, and Interview is a personality test. Fortunately, you can prepare for these stages together and online!

    2) Understanding the syllabus: 

    UPSC exam has a vast syllabus. It is important to know the scope of preparation before you start preparing for the exam. Here are some of the questions you need to ask yourself:

    a) What are the scope and the nature of the syllabus?

    b) What to study and what not to study?

    c) What is the question pattern?

    d) What are your weak areas and what are your strengths?

    e) What kind of guidance will you need? Etc.

    Our guidance program, for example, helps students understand the syllabus and develop a  strategy around it. The mentors at Civils Daily handhold the candidates and guide them at each step. They explain to the students about the Dos and Don’ts of the exam and train them how to develop a good study pattern.

    GET YOUR PERSONALISED DAILY TIMETABLE AND INITIAL STUDY MATERIAL

    3) Developing a Smart Strategy: 

    Developing a strategy that delivers results is very important for this exam. We believe that every student learns at their own pace and each student should have a personal study plan that suits their learning curve.

    This is why our mentors do the following:

    a) They assess the students and understand their requirements.

    b) They develop a study plan for the students that match their learning abilities.

    c) They provide the important study material so that the student doesn’t feel lost. 

    d) They provide regular feedback to students to help them remain focused.

    We believe that students should have strong strategies that are tried and tested, and our experienced mentors customise these strategies for each student.

    4) Managing Current Affairs: 

    Current Affairs is the heart and soul of UPSC preparation. But there is so much news every day that it becomes difficult for the student to cope. That is why we tie Current Affairs with static knowledge and share it with students. This makes it easy for students to remember important details and score more in the exam.

    You can also practice reading newspapers daily and making notes. This will keep you updated. And you can always receive the Current Affairs study material from us in consolidated form for quick revision.

    5) Choosing Optionals:

    This is what topper do when choosing optional:

    a) They narrow down the subjects to 3-4 options based on their background.

    b) They go through the syllabus thoroughly before making a decision.

    c) They also analyse the previous years’ question papers to understand the pattern.

    d) They consult with their mentors to develop a study plan that could work.

    Speaking with a mentor is highly helpful in making this decision because they keep analysing the exam pattern. The mentors know what kind of questions may come and how to study for them. Having an experienced guiding hand for optionals can take your preparation to the next level.

    GET YOUR PERSONALISED DAILY TIMETABLE AND INITIAL STUDY MATERIAL

    6) Writing Practice 

    Answer-writing practice and essay writing practice is a must for any candidate. But the most important thing is getting feedback and evaluation.

    a) Getting feedback from the beginning will help you practice the best way of writing answers.

    b) Getting your essays evaluated will help you avoid making mistakes.

    c) Getting the right guidance can save you a lot of effort.

    Starting with the right guidance can help you avoid mistakes and save you a lot of time.  Why waste time doing things that don’t work and why not start with the right guidance itself? 

    7) Getting The Right Guidance 

    Do not waste your time and energy in reinventing the wheel! 

    It is important to engage with someone who understands your needs. Experienced mentors know the common mistakes that students make, they understand how overwhelming this experience can be. The mentors know how much time and effort goes into the right preparation. And they know how to help students in all these situations.

    The best thing to do is to get in touch with a mentor who can help you avoid making mistakes and guide you to the right preparation techniques.

    This is why our programs are designed to help students at each stage of their preparation.  Any problem you face, you can speak with us and we will find a solution for you. We believe in working with our students and providing the guidance that can make your dream come true!

    GET YOUR PERSONALISED DAILY TIMETABLE AND INITIAL STUDY MATERIAL

  • [Yojana Archive] The Pandemic & Global Synergy

    June 2021

    Context

    • The notion of correlation between various countries characterized by interconnectedness played an important role in the proliferation of the COVID.
    • India’s vaccine diplomacy provides the scope to reflect its cultural values imbued with democratic ethos, cooperation, humanity, development and compassion.
    • It is coupled with the vision of India as a responsible global player deserving the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) permanent membership.
    • India assumes a significant position in the global supply chain of the vaccine due to its time-tested production capabilities and being the world’s largest producer of vaccines.

    Vaccines and India

    • India’s Covid-19 vaccines are the cheapest in the world with two frontrunners; “Covishield” developed by the Serum Institute of India and the “Covaxin” developed by the collaboration of ICMR and NIV with Bharat Biotech (Mondal, 2021).
    • A third vaccine, Russia’s Sputnik V has been approved for emergency use in India by Drugs Controller General of India (DGCI).
    • The local production of Sputnik V will begin in July 2021 and Hyderabad-based Dr Reddy’s Laboratories will manufacture the vaccine in India.

    India’s vaccine diplomacy

    • India has supplied vaccines to nations including Bhutan, Maldives, Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar, Mauritius, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, the UAE, Brazil, Morocco, Bahrain, Oman, Egypt, Algeria, Kuwait, and South Africa.
    • Supplies made under grant amount to 56 lakh doses and commercial supplies amounting to over 100 lakh doses.
    • Indian vaccines have reached Afghanistan and also it is reaching the shores of CARICOM countries in the Caribbean, Pacific Island States, Nicaragua etc.
    • India’s ubiquitous vaccine delivery programme to the rest of the world is situated within the framework of Vaccine Maitri which is quite synonymous with the SAGAR doctrine of India.
    • This gives legitimacy to India’s vaccine efforts further.

    Why need vaccine diplomacy?

    • The aspect of health is central to welfare.
    • Such centrality when disrupted or threatened creates a humongous clamor for instant relief; in this case such action was observed in the pursuit for a vaccine to end this interlude.
    • The field of vaccine development cuts across the national boundaries.
    • This was witnessed in the various collaborative international efforts between various manufacturing companies and laboratories engaged in research.

    India’s efforts

    • The launch of India’s vaccine outreach initiative known as “Vaccine Maitri” demonstrates India’s concern to bring down the curve of the pandemic as a powerful booster to economic recovery prospect.
    • In this context, the recognition is earned as Indian vaccines reflected her pool of scientific skill and professionalism.
    • Besides, India assumes a significant position in the global supply chain of the vaccine due to its time-tested production capabilities and being the world’s largest producer of vaccines.

    Significance of India’s vaccine diplomacy

    • This can be understood if we take into account the nature of action of the developed countries which shows their propensity to reserve doses much beyond the need of their population.
    • The situation of the developing countries, on the contrary, is messy because majority of people in the developing and poor countries could remain unprotected if they cannot afford to pay for the vaccine.
    • Put in this perspective, the nobility of India’s moves stands upon her commitment to share her mastery.
    • India has shared its vaccines with all fellow countries not only those situated in South Asia but also to different countries of the Middle East to Africa and beyond.

    It is undoubtedly a great achievement so far as the domain of our foreign policy and soft power are concerned.

    Utility of vaccine diplomacy

    • Sometimes we can get the outcomes we want without tangible threats or payoffs. This is what is called “second face of power”.
    • A country may obtain the outcomes it wants in world politics because other countries—admiring its values, emulating its example, aspiring to its level of prosperity and openness— want to follow it.
    • Vaccine diplomacy as the nomenclature to define this phenomenon, bends towards the soft power perspective.
    • Soft power rests on the ability to shape the preferences of others.

    Reflecting India’s wisdom

    • Vaccine diplomacy provides India with the scope to reflect its cultural values imbued with democratic ethos, cooperation, humanity, development and compassion.
    • The idea of compassion and generosity are a distinct hallmark of Indian wisdom which is engraved both within the domestic public space as well as its institutions.

    Benefits reaped

    • In today’s world heavily loaded by hard power there is no gainsaying the fact that our dependence on soft power potentialities cannot be absolute.
    • Nevertheless, to succeed in world politics; the path that India adopts with regard to her vaccine diplomacy provides her with unique advantage.
    • For instance, India’s well-positioned stature in terms of vaccine manufacturing has been recognised by Canadian PM, Justin Trudeau.

    Way forward

    • Diplomacy is all about the conduct of international relations with other countries based on certain parameters of connectedness and cooperation.
    • It is worth noting that India’s first supply of vaccine dosage went to Bhutan and Maldives, these two countries being India’s closest ally in the South Asian region.
    • India should follow a preferential and prudential line of judgement when it comes to vaccine distribution.
    • Being generous is a great virtue but generosity should be backed by judicious calculation.

  • How To Start Preparation For IAS Exam – A Complete Guide To UPSC Civil Services Exam for Beginners & Working Professionals || Fill Registration form and get a Personalised Timetable till Prelims 2022 & Initial Study Material to begin Preparation

    Key Takeaways:

    1. Civilsdaily Monthly Magazine (Latest Two Months)
    2. Mentorship Call for Personlised Daily Timetable
    3. Beginners Guide / All Important sample Videos and Notes
    4. PDFs of Important Go-To Subjects to Begin with.

    UPSC Civil Services Exam for the recruitment of IAS, IFS, IRS and 21 other services is one of the most difficult exams in India. More than 10 Lakh aspirants give the UPSC exam every year making the exam competitive. But that does not mean YOU cannot crack it!

    Here’s what you need to know before you start preparing for UPSC Exam.

    Get your personalised daily timetable and initial study material

    FACT: UPSC Civil Service exam requires Hard Work + Strategy + Guidance This is the Holy Trinity that will help you become an IAS officer. 

    So, how do you start?

    1) The UPSC Exam Schedule: 

    UPSC exam is held in 3 stages – Prelims, Mains, And Interview. Prelims are based on objective questions, Mains is subjective, and Interview is a personality test. Fortunately, you can prepare for these stages together and online!

    2) Understanding the syllabus: 

    UPSC exam has a vast syllabus. It is important to know the scope of preparation before you start preparing for the exam. Here are some of the questions you need to ask yourself:

    a) What are the scope and the nature of the syllabus?

    b) What to study and what not to study?

    c) What is the question pattern?

    d) What are your weak areas and what are your strengths?

    e) What kind of guidance will you need? Etc.

    Our guidance program, for example, helps students understand the syllabus and develop a  strategy around it. The mentors at Civils Daily handhold the candidates and guide them at each step. They explain to the students about the Dos and Don’ts of the exam and train them how to develop a good study pattern.

    GET YOUR PERSONALISED DAILY TIMETABLE AND INITIAL STUDY MATERIAL

    3) Developing a Smart Strategy: 

    Developing a strategy that delivers results is very important for this exam. We believe that every student learns at their own pace and each student should have a personal study plan that suits their learning curve.

    This is why our mentors do the following:

    a) They assess the students and understand their requirements.

    b) They develop a study plan for the students that match their learning abilities.

    c) They provide the important study material so that the student doesn’t feel lost. 

    d) They provide regular feedback to students to help them remain focused.

    We believe that students should have strong strategies that are tried and tested, and our experienced mentors customise these strategies for each student.

    4) Managing Current Affairs: 

    Current Affairs is the heart and soul of UPSC preparation. But there is so much news every day that it becomes difficult for the student to cope. That is why we tie Current Affairs with static knowledge and share it with students. This makes it easy for students to remember important details and score more in the exam.

    You can also practice reading newspapers daily and making notes. This will keep you updated. And you can always receive the Current Affairs study material from us in consolidated form for quick revision.

    5) Choosing Optionals:

    This is what topper do when choosing optional:

    a) They narrow down the subjects to 3-4 options based on their background.

    b) They go through the syllabus thoroughly before making a decision.

    c) They also analyse the previous years’ question papers to understand the pattern.

    d) They consult with their mentors to develop a study plan that could work.

    Speaking with a mentor is highly helpful in making this decision because they keep analysing the exam pattern. The mentors know what kind of questions may come and how to study for them. Having an experienced guiding hand for optionals can take your preparation to the next level.

    GET YOUR PERSONALISED DAILY TIMETABLE AND INITIAL STUDY MATERIAL

    6) Writing Practice 

    Answer-writing practice and essay writing practice is a must for any candidate. But the most important thing is getting feedback and evaluation.

    a) Getting feedback from the beginning will help you practice the best way of writing answers.

    b) Getting your essays evaluated will help you avoid making mistakes.

    c) Getting the right guidance can save you a lot of effort.

    Starting with the right guidance can help you avoid mistakes and save you a lot of time.  Why waste time doing things that don’t work and why not start with the right guidance itself? 

    7) Getting The Right Guidance 

    Do not waste your time and energy in reinventing the wheel! 

    It is important to engage with someone who understands your needs. Experienced mentors know the common mistakes that students make, they understand how overwhelming this experience can be. The mentors know how much time and effort goes into the right preparation. And they know how to help students in all these situations.

    The best thing to do is to get in touch with a mentor who can help you avoid making mistakes and guide you to the right preparation techniques.

    This is why our programs are designed to help students at each stage of their preparation.  Any problem you face, you can speak with us and we will find a solution for you. We believe in working with our students and providing the guidance that can make your dream come true!

    GET YOUR PERSONALISED DAILY TIMETABLE AND INITIAL STUDY MATERIAL

  • For Cairns dispute, international arbitration is not the way forward

    Context

    The recent move by Cairn to seize India’s sovereign assets in order to enforce its arbitration award has brought into focus the dispute and the related issues.

    Utility of Bilateral Investment Treaties (BIT)

    • After the World Wars, as more countries gained sovereignty, they tended to look at foreign investments as a form of neo-colonialism.
    • Bilateral investment treaties became the primary tool to forge relationships between developed and developing countries.
    • The BITs help to adopt standards for prompt, adequate and effective compensation in case of expropriation.
    • With the advent of globalisation, BITs became the means for foreign investment in developing countries.
    • Although the impact of investment agreements on foreign investments remains highly contextualised and inconclusive, these came to govern international investment relations.
    • The BITs retained the old-world construct that allowed international arbitration.
    • However, many developing countries view arbitration of tax matters as a breach of their sovereign right to tax.

    The Cairn Energy case

    • In 2012, explanations were added to the Income Tax Act 1961 — these provisions were deemed as having a retrospective effect.
    • This was more in response to the Supreme Court’s decision in the Vodafone case which denied the income tax department’s assertion of tax claims arising from the offshore transfer of interest that substantially derived their value from India.
    • The 2012 explanations to the IT Act indeed sought to fix tax avoidance. 
    • Looking into the details of the Cairn case, one can see the series of reorganisations that tip-toed around tax laws of multiple jurisdictions, resulting in the non-payment of tax. 
    • Taxing offshore indirect transfers — a structuring device to gain tax advantage from the indirect sale of assets — is not unique to India (336 tax treaties contain such an article).
    • It is also possible to see that the underlying assets of the subsidiaries were immovable assets in India.
    • The UK-India tax treaty allowed for taxation of capital gains as per Indian law.
    • India challenged the admissibility of the case before the arbitration tribunal.
    • However, the case rests on a distinction between tax and tax-related investment.
    • Surely, all investments have tax implications and the acceptance of such a distinction could create problems even where tax is explicitly carved out from the bilateral investment treaties.
    • The option of arbitration upon an unsuccessful Mutual Agreement Procedure (MAP) resolution is not available in India.
    •  For this reason, over the years, there has been a rising trend in tax disputes involving BITs.
    • The Cairn case is one such instance where arbitration was invoked especially since MAP was not an option.

    Way forward

    • The case raises many questions that administrators must address through reform.
    • India’s model BIT introduced in 2016 rectifies the issue of the distinction between tax dispute and investment-related taxation dispute through the specific exclusion of taxation.
    •  The recognition of a tax-related investment dispute, distinct from a tax dispute, should not undermine such a carve-out.

    Conclusion

    It is also important to note even if the award is enforced, the matter of tax avoidance stands pending before the High Court. Given the complexity, the only reasonable solution would be a negotiated settlement. Even if there’s a resolution in the Cairns case, questions of law would remain.

  • 22nd July 2021 | Prelims Daily with Previous Year Questions

    [WpProQuiz 708]

    [WpProQuiz_toplist 708]

  • 21st July 2021 | Prelims Daily with Previous Year Questions

    [WpProQuiz 707]

    [WpProQuiz_toplist 707]

  • Cover ENTIRE Syllabus Of Indian Society And Social Issues For Absolutely FREE! | Siddharth sir’s podcast inside.

    Complete Coverage, Revision, MPQs, Answer-writing Tips, And More

    Join Habitat for FREE session on social issues

    Dear aspirants,

    Indian society and social issues make a huge part of the UPSC syllabus. The knowledge can be used to enrich your answers in all the GS papers in Mains as well as your Essays. Do not miss this session by Siddharth sir for absolutely FREE!

    https://youtu.be/KMzbbP56iV8

    Complete Package Includes:

    1. Complete syllabus coverage
    2. Revisions
    3. Practice Questions
    4. Answer-writing tips and analysis
    5. Doubt clearing sessions
    6. How To Use These Topics To Score More In Essays.
    7. Expected Questions In Prelims!

    And more…

    It’s Absolutely FREE, Join Now!

    Daily Sessions at 6:30 P.M.

    This Can Help You Score In BOTH Prelims And MAINS! Don’t wait!

    What do you have to do?

    1. Join Habitat For Absolutely Free Sessions!
    2. Read The Discussions Happening On The General Page.
    3. Click On The Blue Box To Join The Discussion.
    4. Participate, Ask Questions, Engage, And Learn!

    Don’t Miss Out On The Questions That May Help You Succeed!

    Here is a list of topics and discussions you can join immediately:

    Revise Economics for IAS PrelimsRavi Ranjan11:00 am
    Essay WritingAnand Prakash12:30 pm
    Science and TechDr. Keerti1:00 pm
    Samadhan CSATRavi Ranjan2:00 pm
    UPSC EPFORohit Yadav3:00 pm
    Chat pe News: Current AffairsAnjum Sharma4:30 pm
    Polity Laxmikant Amoghavarsha5:30 pm
    Indian society and Social IssuesSiddharth 6:00 pm
    Abhyaas: Answer WritingGarima7:00 pm
    Samvad: Indian AgricultureRadhika Didwania7:30 pm
    Prelims HeistParth Verma8:30 pm
    Parakram Answer Writing sessionRohit Yadav9:30 pm
    Post dinner MCQs for IAS prelimsAmitB10:15 pm

    And many more…

    Whatever you need, we have it here.

    Join the club of your choice here (for free)

    How to join a discussion?

    After you have joined/registered on Habitat for free, go to the General club. Click on the blue box of the session you want to attend.

  • India’s equity market bubble

    Context

    Even as the real economy returns to the doldrums after being hit by the second wave of COVID-19 infections, the continuing bull run in India’s equity market in the April-June quarter has baffled many observers.

    V-shaped recovery of equity market

    • The benchmark BSE Sensex had nosedived to below 28,000 in March-April 2020, following the nationwide lockdown.
    • The equity market posted a sharp V-shaped recovery in 2020-21.
    • The Sensex surged beyond 50,000 in February 2021 and is currently closing on the 53,000 level.

    Factors suggesting bubble in equity market

    • There was an 81%-plus growth in the Sensex between April 2020 and March 2021 in the backdrop of real GDP growth plummeting to -7.3% during the same period.
    • While output contraction had reversed from the third quarter of 2020-21, the inflation rate also rose and remained way ahead of the real GDP growth rate in the last two quarters (Chart 1).
    • It is difficult to find any rationality behind the skyrocketing BSE Sensex in the context of such stagflation in the real economy.
    • Just like the fall in the equity prices was driven by the exit of foreign portfolio investors (FPI), the return of massive FPI inflows has driven the Indian equity bubble since then (Chart 2).
    • Net FPI inflows clocked an unprecedented ₹2.74 lakh crore in 2020-21, the previous high being ₹1.4 lakh crore in 2012-13.
    • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s annual report (2020-21) to state stated that: “This order of asset price inflation in the context of the estimated 8 per cent contraction in GDP in 2020-21 poses the risk of a bubble.”

    Global factors

    • The global liquidity glut, following the expansionary, easy money policies adopted by the fiscal and monetary authorities of the OECD and G20 countries, has led to equity price inflation in several markets driven by FPIs, especially in Asia.
    • Following cues from the U.S. and the U.K., Asian equity markets in Singapore, India, Thailand, Malaysia and Hong Kong are currently witnessing price-earnings (P/E) ratios significantly above their historic means.
    • The BSE Sensex’s P/E ratio of 32 in end-June 2021 is way above its historic mean of around 20.

    What could burst the bubble?

    • Change in monetary policy: With COVID-19 vaccination and economic recovery proceeding apace in the U.S., the U.K. and Europe, fiscal and monetary policy stances will change soon.
    • Exit of FPIs: Once the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks start raising interest rates, the direction of FPI flows will invariably change bringing about corrections in equity markets across Asia.
    • India remains particularly vulnerable to a major correction in the equity market because of two reasons.
    • Low pace of vaccination: The pace of COVID-19 vaccination in India, given the vast population, lags behind most large countries.
    • In the absence of a substantial increase in the vaccination budget and procurement, large segments of the Indian population will remain vulnerable to a potential third wave of COVID-19, with its attendant deleterious impact on the real economy.
    • Weak fiscal stimulus: India’s economic recovery from the recession will remain constrained by the weak fiscal stimulus that has been delivered by the Central government.
    • Data from the IMF clearly show that while the total global stimulus consisted of additional public spending or revenue foregone measures amounting to 7.4% of global GDP, India’s fiscal measures amounted to 3.3% of GDP only.

    Consider the question “What are the factors driving equity market boom globally? What are the factors that could threaten such boom with a major correction?” 

    Conclusion

    With all agencies, including the RBI, downsizing India’s growth projections for 2021-22, it remains to be seen how long India’s equity bubble lasts.

    Back2Basics: P/E ratio

    • The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its per-share earnings (EPS).
    • The price-to-earnings ratio is also sometimes known as the price multiple or the earnings multiple.
    • To determine the P/E value, one simply must divide the current stock price by the earnings per share (EPS).

    P/E Ratio=Earnings per share / Market value per share

     

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