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  • [op-ed snap] Iran’s tightrope

    Context

    In the aftermath of recent events, Iran needs a new compact to deal with the domestic crisis and also a framework to deal with the US.

    The threat of “regime change” in Iran

    • The US policy-The temptation for a policy of “regime change” in Iran has never disappeared from the US policy towards Iran.
      • The policy is based on the hope that mounting external pressure and deepening internal dissent will combine to produce a “regime collapse” in Tehran.
      • US President has often insisted that he is not seeking to overthrow the clerical regime in Tehran led by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
      • The Us demands were an end to the nuclear and missile programmes, stop supporting terror in the region and end the interference in the internal affairs of its Arab neighbours.
    • Iran’s success in fending off these threats: Iran has been successful so far in fending off these external and internal challenges.
      • Iran has put down repeated mass uprisings and neutered attempts from within the elite to reform the system.

    De-escalation of the tension after the war-like situation

    • Fear of escalation: The widespread assessment after the killing of Soleimani was that Iran would inevitably escalate the confrontation.
      • Tehran set up a token retaliation for domestic political consumption and quickly called for de-escalation.
    • The message of peace from the US: Trump also told the Iranian leaders that America “is ready to embrace peace with all who seek it”.

    The shooting of a passenger jet and the aftermath 

    • The shooting of the jet:
      • The Ukrainian passenger jet was shot-down near Tehran killing all 176 passengers and crew on-board.
      • It included 82 Iranian nationals and many Canadian citizens of Iranian origin
    • After initial denial, Tehran was forced to accept responsibility for shooting down the plane.
    • The aftermath of the shooting of the plane
      • Protests: Soon after the confession, protests broke out against the government.
      • Demand for accountability: Iranians are angry at the attempt of the government to cover up initially and are demanding full accountability.

    The general discontent of the people against the government

    • The latest round of protests must be seen as a continuation of those that have raged since the end of 2017.
    • Reasons for the discontent: Economic grievances, frustration with widespread corruption, demands for liberalising the restrictions on women and political opposition to the regime are the reasons.
    • Discontent against external adventures: There was also strong criticism of the government’s costly external adventures in the Middle East amidst the deteriorating economic conditions.
      • There is little love for the Revolutionary Guards, the principal face of state oppression.
    • External pressure: As the regime cracks down on the protests against the airliner shooting, the external pressures against Iran are only likely to mount.

    Available option and their dangers

    • As sanctions squeeze the Iranian economy, the costs of regional overreach become apparent, and internal protests become persistent, Khamenei has few good options.
    • The option of the new political compact: Offering a new political compact to the people of Iran or a new framework to deal with the Arab neighbours and the US would seem reasonable goals.
      • But they involve considerable risk for the regime.
    • The option of pragmatism: All revolutionary regimes come to a point when they need to replace ideological fervour with pragmatism.
      • But the change from ideological fervour to pragmatism is also the time of the greatest vulnerability for the regime.

    Conclusion

    India as a friend of Iran will surely begin to debate if privately, the implications of the deepening regime crisis in Iran.

  • Police Commissionerate System

    The UP Cabinet has approved the Commissionerate system of policing for state capital Lucknow, and Noida.

    The Police Commissionerate System

    • The system gives more responsibilities, including magisterial powers, to IPS officers of Inspector General of Police (IG) rank posted as commissioners.
    • Under the 7th Schedule of the Constitution, ‘Police’ is under the State list, meaning individual states typically legislate and exercise control over this subject.
    • In the arrangement in force at the district level, a ‘dual system’ of control exists, in which the Superintendent of Police (SP) has to work with the District Magistrate (DM) for supervising police administration.
    • At the metropolitan level, many states have replaced the dual system with the commissionerate system, as it is supposed to allow for faster decision-making to solve complex urban-centric issues.

    Additional powers to Police

    • In this system, the Commissioner of Police (CP) is the head of a unified police command structure, is responsible for the force in the city, and is accountable to the state government.
    • The office also has magisterial powers, including those related to regulation, control, and licensing.
    • The CP is drawn from the Deputy Inspector General rank or above, and is assisted by Special/Joint/Additional/Deputy Commissioners.

    Where is the system in force?

    • Previously, only four cities had the system: Kolkata, Mumbai, Hyderabad and Chennai.
    • However, with rapid urbanisation, states felt an increasing need to replicate the system in more places.
    • The sixth National Police Commission report, which was released in 1983, recommended the introduction of a police Commissionerate system in cities with a population of 5 lakh and above, as well as in places having special conditions.
    • Over the years, it has been extended to numerous cities, including Delhi, Pune, Bangalore and Ahmedabad. By January 2016, 53 cities had this system, a PRS study said.
    • Depending on its success, the policing system may gradually be implemented in other districts as well.

  • Raisina Dialogue 2020

     

    India`s annual global conference on geopolitics and geo-economics, Raisina Dialogue 2020 has began with the participation of over 100 countries.

    Raisina Dialogue

    • The Raisina Dialogue is a multilateral conference committed to addressing the most challenging issues facing the global community.
    • It is jointly organised by the Ministry of External Affairs and the Observer Research Foundation.
    • Every year, global leaders in policy, business, media and civil society are hosted in New Delhi to discuss cooperation on a wide range of pertinent international policy matters.
    • The Dialogue is structured as a multi-stakeholder, cross-sectoral discussion, involving heads of state, cabinet ministers and local government officials, as well as major private sector executives, members of the media and academics.

    This years’ agenda

    • The fifth edition of the Dialogue 2020 has been India`s contribution to global efforts to discover solutions, identify opportunities and provide stability to a century that has witnessed an eventful two decades.
    • This year`s Dialogue titled `Navigating the Alpha Century` is structured as a multi-stakeholder, cross-sectoral discussion, involving heads of states, cabinet ministers and local government officials as well as major private sector executives, members of the media and academics.

    Significance of the dialogue

    • The Raisina Dialogue has acquired an enviable global profile uniting the best strategic thinkers of the world.
    • The synergies and collaborations in the Raisina Dialogue represent India`s deliberative ethos, as well as its international credibility and convening power.
    • The Dialogue has grown along with India`s diplomatic profile and will set the tone for its intensive diplomatic engagement this year.

  • Fastest growing cities in India

     The Economist has put Malappuram at the top of the “Top ten fastest-growing cities” in the world.

    Anomalies in the data

    • The total fertility rate (TFR, the number of children a woman is likely to have in the childbearing age of 15-49) in Kerala is 1.8 as per NITI Aayog data from 2016 — below the replacement rate of 2.1.
    • Another Kerala city, Thrissur, is No. 13, and the capital Thiruvananthapuram is No. 33 on the UN list.
    • Tiruppur in Tamil Nadu — which has an even lower TFR of 1.6 — is No. 30.
    • Surat in Gujarat (TFR of 2.2) is No. 27. There is no representation on the list from high population growth states like Bihar and UP.

    What does “fastest growing” refer to? How is a “city” defined?

    • The list based on data from the UN Population Division refers to “urban agglomerations” (UA), which are extended areas built around an existing town along with its outgrowths — typically villages or other residential areas or universities, ports, etc., on the outskirts of the town.
    • The Census defines a UA as “a continuous urban spread consisting of a town and its adjoining urban outgrowths or two or more physically contiguous towns together”.
    • The NCT of Delhi is a UA that includes the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) and New Delhi Municipal Council (NDMC) areas, as well as 107 “Census towns” — erstwhile surrounding villages where more than 75% of the population is now engaged in non-agricultural pursuits.

    A pace of urbanization

    • The Economist has listed the rate at which the populations of the UAs are expected to increase between 2015 and 2020.
    • Since data on India and many other countries were not available for 2015 (the last Census in India was in 2011), the UN report used projections of UAs’ populations — estimates based on past population growth data.
    • The rate of growth between 2015 and 2020 thus calculated provides a measure of the pace of urbanisation.

    How does urban population grow?

    • Urban populations can grow when the birth rate exceeds the death rate when workers migrate to the city in search of jobs; when more areas get included within the boundaries of the city; or when existing rural areas are reclassified as urban.
    • The low fertility rate in Kerala means the increase in the population of Malappuram and other cities is not because women are having more children; rather it is because more villages are being transformed into towns, and city borders are expanding.
    • According to the Census definition, an urban area is either a census town (CT) or a statutory town (ST). An ST is any place with a municipal corporation, municipal council, or cantonment board.
    • A CT can be a village with “urban characteristics” — a population more than 5,000, population density more than 400 people per sq km, and with more than 75% of the population not engaged in agriculture for their livelihood.
    • When a village becomes a CT, its population is included in the urban population of the district.

    Could migration have caused the increase?

    • Migration can either increase or decrease the population of a town.
    • Kerala sees both emigration — migration from the state to other places — and immigration — the migration of workers to the state.
    • Also the remittances that emigrants send allow the residents of villages to move away from agriculture, which changes the status of a village to census town.

    Why these cities are growing so fast?

    • These cities are seeing rapid urbanisation, and the main reason is the inclusion of new areas in the UA’s limits.
    • In 2001, there were two municipal corporations within the UA of Malappuram. In 2011, the number of municipal corporations had doubled to four, and an additional 37 CTs were included within Malappuram.
    • The population of the UA (excluding the residents of the outgrowths) increased almost 10 times in the same period — from 1,70,409 to 16,99,060 — obviously because of the inclusion of existing urban areas in the town.
    • Similarly, Kollam UA grew from one municipal corporation in 2001 to 23 CTs, one municipal corporation, and one municipal council in 2011.
    • Its population increased by 130%, even though the population of the original ST of Kollam actually decreased by 4%.

    Why is this not seen elsewhere in India?

    • In Kerala, urbanisation is driven by a move away from agriculture, which leads to a change in a village’s Census classification status.
    • This is evident from the large number of CTs that were included in the UAs of the state since the last Census. On the other hand, except Delhi, the more populous cities in the North had fewer CTs in 2011.
    • While the pace of urbanisation has been slower in the North, some unnaturally high increases in the population can be expected after the 2021 Census — because in some cases, villages on the peripheries were brought within the administrative boundaries of the cities.

    Is it good for the economy?

    • Urbanisation leads to the growth of cities, which are sites of infrastructure like universities, hospitals, and public transport facilities.
    • There are more opportunities for the youth, which is why they attract young people and entrepreneurs.
    • In India, people moving to cities leave behind (to some extent) caste and class divisions that dominate life in the villages, and can hope to climb up the social ladder.
    • However, unplanned urbanisation can be “exclusionary”, making it difficult for migrants to live there given the high cost.
    • Unregulated housing, lack of reliable public transport, and longer commutes within these towns puts a strain on the meagre resources of migrants.

  • Virtual human’ NEON

    NEONs are being called the world’s first artificial humans. They look and behave like real humans, and could develop memories and emotions — though from behind a 4K display.

    NEON

    • Star Labs is headed by India-born scientist Pranav Mistry who underlines that what was showcased at CES was the product of just four months’ work.
    • The company says NEONs are computationally created virtual humans — the word derives from NEO (new) + humaN.
    • For now, the virtual humans can show emotions when manually controlled by their creators.
    • But the idea is for NEONs to become intelligent enough to be fully autonomous, showing emotions, learning skills, creating memories, and being intelligent on their own.
    • Star Labs thinks they can be “friends, collaborators, and companions”, but all that is a few years away.

    How does it work?

    There are two core technologies behind his virtual humans.

    • First, there is the proprietary CORE R3 technology that drives the “reality, real time and responsiveness” behind NEONs.
    • It is the front-end reality engine that is able to give you that real expression.
    • The company claims CORE R3 “leapfrogs in the domains of Behavioral Neural Networks, Evolutionary Generative Intelligence and Computational Reality”, and is “extensively trained” on how humans look, behave and interact.
    • But in the end, it is like a rendition engine, converting the mathematical models to look like actual humans.
    • The next stage will be SPECTRA, which will complement CORE R3 with the “spectrum of intelligence, learning, emotions and memory”.
    • But SPECTRA is still in development, and is not expected before NEONWORLD 2020 later this year.

    How could NEONs be used?

    • NEONs are the interface for technologies and services.
    • They could answer queries at a bank, welcome you at a restaurant, or read out the breaking news on television at an unearthly hour.
    • This form of virtual assistance would be more effective, for example, while teaching languages, as NEONs will be capable of understanding and sympathizing.

    How are they different from Virtual Assistants?

    • Virtual Assistants now learn from all the data they are plugged into. NEONs will be limited to what they know and learn.
    • Their leaning could potentially be limited to the person they are catering to, and maybe her friends — but not the entire Internet.
    • They will not be an interface for you to request a song, rather they will be a friend to speak to and share experiences with.
    • Currently, its developer doesn’t want NEONs to have collective memory, or to share data among themselves.

  • How IAS Aspirants Can Ensure Perfect Memory Part- 2

     

    A good memory is a prerequisite for performing well in not just CSE, but also in almost every other part of life. This video discusses how IAS aspirants can make their memory stronger and sharper.

    NOTE: Want to speak to a mentor at Civilsdaily for your IAS Prep queries? Please fill out this form, we will call you back [Click2Fill]

  • 14th January 2020| Daily Answer Writing Enhancement

    The topics covered in the upcoming AWE on 15th January are:

    Q.1) Important Geophysical phenomena such as earthquakes, Tsunami, Volcanic activity, cyclone, etc.

    Q.4) Concept of public service; Philosophical basis of governance and probity.

     

    Question 1)

    Cotton textile industry in India is highly decentralized. Analyze the factors for this decentralization? (15 Marks)

    Question 2)

    Whether the ‘anti-exclusion principle’ expounded in the Sabarimala verdict can be a better alternative to the ‘essential practice’ doctrine in balancing the religious freedom with the individual’s rights. Examine. (15 Marks)

    Question 3)

    ‘While seemingly underdogs in the Indian financial markets, NBFCs punched above their weight in destabilising the Indian economy’. In light of the above statement examine the role of NBFCs in the Indian economy. Also, explain the reasons for the recent crisis they are facing and the role of Credit Rating Agencies in the crisis. (15 Marks)

    Question 4)

    Critically examine the importance of ethics in international relations and elucidate with suitable illustrations. (15 Marks)

    Reviews will be provided in a week. (In the order of submission- First come first serve basis). In case the answer is submitted late the review period may get extended to two weeks.

    *In case your answer is not reviewed in a week, reply to your answer saying *NOT CHECKED*. If Parth Sir’s tag is available then tag him.

    For the philosophy of AWE and payment, check  here: Click2Join

  • [op-ed of the day] Revisiting the NBFC Crisis

    Context

    While India was trying to deal with the problems arising out of the large NPA accumulated by the commercial banks, the Indian financial sector was dealt with another blow in the form of the NBFC crisis.

    Effects of IL&FS and DHFL collapse:

    • Balance sheets affected: The collapse of these two big entities affected the balance sheets of banks and mutual fund companies.
    • Credit crunch: It also resulted in a credit crunch that dampened demand and pushed a slowing economy towards recession.
    • Tarnished image of NBFCs: Being leaders in the industry, their failure has tarnished the image of the NBFC sector as a whole.

    Types of NBFCs and their numbers

    • Total number: As of September 2019 there were a total 9,642 NBFCs in India.
    • Deposit-taking NBFC (NBFCs-D): Only 82 of India’s NBFCs were deposit-taking institutions (NBFCs-D) permitted to mobilise and hold deposits.
    • Non-deposit taking NBFCs (NBFCs-ND): The rest of the NBFCs which are not deposit-taking, are categorised as non-deposit taking NBFCs.
      • They did not have access to the savings of ordinary households.
      • For this reason, the majority of these institutions were not considered to be entities that needed strict regulation
    • Systematically important (NBFCs-ND-SI): Of a large number of non-deposit taking NBFCs (NBFCs-ND), only 274 were identified as being systematically important (NBFCs-ND-SI), by virtue of having an asset size of ₹500 crores or more.

    Significance of NBFCs as expressed by assets holdings

    • A significant player in the financial markets: As at the end of March 2019, these two sets-NBFCs-D and NBFC-ND-SI- held assets that amounted to almost a fifth of that held by the scheduled commercial banks.
      • This made them significant players in the web of credit, as well as large enough as a group to affect the health of the financial sector.
    • Non-deposit taking NBFCs must rely on resources garnered from the “market,” including the banking system, besides the market for bonds, debentures, and short-term paper.
    • Extension of financial entities: Individual investors would only be marginally involved in direct investment in these instruments.
      • So, the NBFCs are essentially extensions of the activity of other financial entities such as banks, insurance companies, and mutual funds.

    Concentrated lending by NBFCs

    • Industry getting lion’s share: Industry accounted for the biggest chunk of lending, amounting to 57% of gross advances in September 2019.
      • Much of this lending to industry went to the infrastructural sector.
    • At second place-retail sector: A second major target for lending by the NBFCs was the retail sector, with retail loans accounting for 20% of gross advances.
      • Within the retail sector, vehicle/auto loans accounted for as much as 44% of loans.

    What went wrong?

    • Diversification by commercial banks: Following a surge in capital flows into India which began in 2004, banks were flush with liquidity.
      • Under pressure to lend and invest to cover the costs of capital and intermediation and earn a profit, banks were looking for new areas into which they could move
      • Increase in retail lending by banks: The pressure resulted in a significant increase in retail lending, with lending for housing, automobiles and consumer durables.
      • There was also a substantial increase in lending to the infrastructural sector and commercial real estate.
    • Why NBFCs flourished even in the face of competition by banks? What the growth of the NBFCs indicates is that banks were unable to exhaust the liquidity at their disposal.
      • Banks were also unable to satisfy the potential for lending to these sectors, providing a space for NBFCs to flourish.
    • The willingness of NBFCs suited the banks: The willingness of the NBFCs to enter these areas suited the banks in two ways.
      • First, it permitted the banks to use their liquidity even when they themselves were stretched and could not discover, scrutinise and monitor new borrowers.
      • Banks could lend to the NBFCs, which could then take on the tasks associated with expanding the universe of borrowers to match the increased access to liquid funds.
      • The second was that it helped the banks to move risks out of their own books.
    • Short term lending to NBFCs, and long-term lending by NBFCs: Banks accepts short term deposits, so there is limit in their ability to lend that short term deposits as a long term debt.
      • On the other hand, these were the sectors to which additional credit could be easily pushed.
      • Lending to NBFCs that in turn lent to these sectors, appeared to be a solution to the problem.
      • Bank lending to the NBFCs was short term, and the latter used these short-term funds to provide long-maturity loans
      • NBFCs expected that they would be able to roll over much of these loans so that they were not capital short.
      • Role of rating agencies: What they needed for the purpose were ratings that ranked their instruments as safe.
      • The ratings companies were more than willing to provide such ranks.
    • The two risks involved in this model: The NBFC-credit build-up was an edifice that was burdened with two kinds of risks.
      • First risk: A possible default on the part of borrowers.
      • The probability of which only increases as the universe of borrowers is expanded rapidly to exhaust the liquidity at hand.
      • The second risk: The second was the possibility that developments in the banking sector and other segments of the financial sector would reduce the appetite of these investors for the debentures, bonds and commercial paper issued by the NBFCs
      • Since the NBFCs banked on being able to roll-over short-term debt to sustain long-term lending.
      • A slowdown in or halt to the flow of funds would lead to a liquidity crunch that can damage the balance sheet of these institutions.
    • Which of the two risks is involved in the present crisis? The crisis that affected the NBFCs was a result of both kinds of setbacks.
      • First setback: Loans to areas like infrastructure, commercial real estate and housing went bad.
      • Second setback: With the non-performing assets problem in the commercial banking sector curtailing their access to bank lending.
    • Why the problem turned systemic? Given the importance of ratings and “image” in ensuring access to capital, some firms with the requisite image were able to mobilise large sums of capital and expand their business.
      • When entities like that go bust, the response of lenders and investors to the event tends to be drastic, with systemic effects on the sector as a whole.

    Conclusion

    The episode was a shadow banking crisis that has had far-reaching consequences for the economy as a whole. Therefore, its high time that measures are taken to avoid the occurrence of such a crisis in the future.

  • [CD Exclusive] SWOT Analysis Questions for 3 Types of IAS Mains Qualified Aspirants

    [CD Exclusive] SWOT Analysis Questions for 3 Types of IAS Mains Qualified Aspirants

    Let’s face the facts. Very few of us can face an IAS interview with gusto.

    The remaining lion’s share of aspirants wails from self-doubt, no matter how much data and mocks we claim to have attempted and cramped.

    Remember, we have a few hours within which we have to impress the panel. You may be an engineer of the first water, an aspirant with dogged determination and a story to reckon with, but it is what transpires during those few hours is what matters.

    You need the best to come out of you, period.

    Back in 2017, Civilsdaily was one of the few institutions which brought about a change in the way an aspirant approaches the IAS exam. We have been very meticulous with our Samanvaya Calls (Mentoring interventions on phone) and invited aspirants (our students or not) to come and fill the form and share their preparation related issues.

    TRANSCEND (Interview Guidance by CD) module vs. other mock interview programs

    SWOT Analysis

    The interview preparation in our Transcend module is now enhanced with questions that are expected from you given your life-stage during this preparation journey. Much more beyond your hobbies and childhood dreams.

    We have profiled you in 3 broad buckets in our announcement post for Transcend 2019-20.

    Once you fill-up the form and submit your DAF, we have requested you to send us a selfie video with candid answers to 6 standard questions.

    Post that, we will analyze and build personalized interventions depending upon UPSC readiness bucket.

    Here’s a preview of what those questions are going to be and their importance.

    Profile 1: UPSC Senior

    Q1. You have failed in your previous attempt/s, why do you think we should consider your candidature seriously this time?

    This question tests the psychology of the candidate. The language has been deliberately made harsh to push the candidate on the back foot. The candidate is expected to remain optimistic and calm despite the provocative language and give logical points about why she is amongst the best choices for civil services.

    Q2. What do you think about the Citizenship Amendment Bill?

    This seemingly simple question has been asked to test the neutrality, articulation, logical exposition and critical thinking skills of the candidate. The issue of CAB is extremely complex with strong opinions aired by all sides. The candidate is expected to be aware of all the viewpoints and also have her own opinion on the issue. Normally, senior aspirants tend to avoid sharing their personal opinions on complicated and controversial national issues, but a candidate who has reached interview stage multiple times is expected to have the maturity to deal with such issues. In order to further test the candidate’s balance of judgement and ability to handle pressure, the interview board might counter the candidate’s arguments with strong (and even extreme) counter-arguments.

    Profile 2: The Working Professional (let’s say from steel & iron sector)

    Q1. How is India faring in the Iron and steel sector, both globally and domestically? What will be the impact of the National Steel Policy, 2017 on the sector? What are the latest technologies in steel manufacturing? Etc

    These kinds of Qs are asked to gauge how well the candidate understands the sector she works in. The candidate is expected to know the factual details with examples. Not answering such questions will go well with the board.

    Q2. Some Qs around your hobbies might be asked.

    The purpose of such Qs is to judge the significance you accord to ‘quality of life’. Your answer must reflect that despite the busy schedule, you do find some time to relax and recuperate from the stress of modern life.

    Profile 3: The Fresher

    Q1. Ideally, UPSC preparation should be managed alongside one’s studies and does not demand dedicated and exclusive preparation. Why did you need to invest a year specifically for it?

    Normally, aspirants think that many years of dedicated hard work is needed to crack the UPSC. This Q is intended to ‘stun’ the candidate by stressing on a point contrary to her belief. The purpose is to test the self-confidence and mental strength of the candidate. If the interviewee has a weak mind, she might blank out in this situation, and might not be able to answer properly anything that follows.

    Q2. What is your opinion about the encounter of the rape accused by Hyderabad police?

    Young people are often swayed by their emotions, and therefore, these kinds of questions are asked. They are intended to test qualities like maturity, the balance of judgment, critical power of assimilation, emotional intelligence of the candidate, faith in constitutional values, etc. Such questions can arouse very strong and knee-jerk reactions which can cost you the interview. These have to be avoided at all costs.

    We hope you have been watching our “How’s the josh videos” on the Civilsdaily Youtube channel. Rakesh Sir will be actively looking into your DAFs and reviewing your videos to ensure that every hour gets counted.

  • 13th January 2020 | Prelims Daily with Previous Year Questions

    [WpProQuiz 336]

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