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  • Despite patchy record, US climate exit will still pinch

    Why in the News?

    The USA formally exited the UNFCCC framework and associated climate institutions following Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, completing a process initiated during his first term. This move reverses post-2021 re-engagement. This creates a quantified emissions gap toward 2030 targets, and transfers leadership space to China. Furthermore, this makes it a significant departure from prior multilateral climate engagement.

    Why is the US withdrawal from the climate regime significant despite its mixed record?

    1. Institutional Influence: The US shaped global climate action through bodies such as the IPCC, International Solar Alliance, and International Renewable Energy Agency, enabling coordination, research, and monitoring.
    2. Scientific Capacity: Ensured global access to climate modelling, emissions tracking, and data-collection networks critical for mitigation planning.
    3. Policy Signalling: Anchored climate ambition through participation rather than absolute emissions outcomes.

    How does this decision disrupt global emissions reduction efforts?

    1. Mitigation Gap: US withdrawal contributes to a shortfall that pushes global emissions beyond pathways needed to meet 2030 targets.
    2. Burden Redistribution: Places disproportionate pressure on developing countries to compensate for reduced ambition.
    3. Credibility Deficit: Weakens enforcement norms within the Paris Agreement framework.

    What are the consequences for India’s decarbonisation pathway?

    1. External Pressure: Increases international expectations on India to deliver faster emissions reductions.
    2. Technology Access: Affects collaboration on clean energy research and innovation platforms.
    3. Investment Climate: Risks slowing capital inflows for renewable infrastructure dependent on global policy certainty.

    How does US disengagement alter global climate leadership dynamics?

    1. Strategic Vacuum: Creates space for China to dominate renewable manufacturing, supply chains, and deployment.
    2. Economic Leverage: Strengthens China’s position in equipment, infrastructure, and financing ecosystems.
    3. Geopolitical Shift: Transfers normative leadership in climate governance away from Western institutions.

    What does the withdrawal mean for climate finance and multilateral commitments?

    1. Finance Gap: Reduces availability of concessional funding for mitigation and adaptation.
    2. Institutional Weakening: Undermines credibility of collective responsibility frameworks.
    3. Operational Uncertainty: Affects ongoing funding mechanisms for developed and developing countries.

    Why is the impact larger than US domestic emissions alone?

    1. Systemic Role: The US functioned as a coordinator, funder, and standard-setter.
    2. Network Effects: Withdrawal disrupts global research, verification, and compliance systems.
    3. Long-Term Costs: Creates structural weaknesses that outlast the current political cycle.

    Conclusion

    The US climate exit, despite its inconsistent mitigation record, weakens global climate governance by eroding institutional capacity, financing mechanisms, and leadership credibility. For India, the withdrawal raises decarbonisation pressures while simultaneously constraining access to capital and technology, underscoring the fragility of voluntary multilateral climate regimes.

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2019] “Too little cash, too much politics, leaves UNESCO fighting for life’. Discuss the statement in the light of US’ withdrawal and its accusation of the cultural body as being ‘ anti- Israel bias’.

    Linkage: The UNESCO PYQ illustrates how US withdrawal and politicisation weaken multilateral institutions through funding gaps and credibility loss. Similarly, the US exit from the climate regime undermines UNFCCC effectiveness, shifts leadership space to China, and increases the burden on developing countries like India.

  • US Withdraws from UNFCCC and IPCC

    Why in the News?

    US President Donald Trump has signed a presidential memorandum withdrawing the United States from 66 international organisations, including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This makes the US the first country to formally exit the UNFCCC.

    United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

    The UNFCCC is the foundational global treaty that governs international cooperation on climate change. It provides the legal and institutional framework under which global climate negotiations take place.

    Established

    • Adopted in 1992 at the Rio Earth Summit
    • Entered into force in 1994
    • Nearly universal membership among UN countries

    Key role

    • Organises annual Conference of Parties (COP) climate negotiations
    • Hosts the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming
    • Establishes systems for
      • Emissions reporting
      • Transparency and accountability
      • Climate finance mechanisms
      • Carbon markets and rule making

    Legal implications of US withdrawal

    • Withdrawal takes effect one year after formal notice
    • Exit from UNFCCC automatically means exit from the Paris Agreement
    • US will no longer be a Party to COP negotiations
    • Can attend meetings only as an observer, without bargaining rights

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

    The IPCC is the UN body that assesses and synthesises global scientific research on climate change, its impacts, and mitigation and adaptation options.

    Functions

    • Produces comprehensive assessment reports
    • Provides scientific benchmarks for climate negotiations
    • Informs global and national climate policy

    Impact of US exit

    • Reduces US influence over global climate science assessments
    • Limits formal nomination of US experts to IPCC author teams
    • US scientists may still contribute as reviewers or through non government nominations
    [2009] The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international treaty drawn at: 

    (a) United Conference on the Human Environment, Stockholm, 1972 

    (b) UN Conference on Environment and Development, Rio de Janeiro, 1992 

    (c) World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002 

    (d) UN Climate Change Conference, Copenhagen, 2009

  • Doomsday Glacier Destabilisation and the Future of Antarctic Ice Sheets

    Why in the News?

    A recent scientific study has revealed increasing fracturing in the Thwaites Glacier, also known as the Doomsday Glacier, indicating how large parts of the Antarctic ice sheets could collapse in the future. The findings were published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface.

    Thwaites Glacier (Doomsday Glacier)

    The Thwaites Glacier is a massive glacier in West Antarctica that drains ice from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet into the Amundsen Sea. It is one of the fastest changing glacier systems on Earth.

    Why it is called the Doomsday Glacier

    • Complete collapse could raise global sea levels by about 65 cm
    • Acts as a gateway glacier whose destabilisation can trigger wider ice sheet collapse
    • Focus area: Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS), a floating extension of the glacier

    Pinning point and shear zone

    • TEIS is attached to an undersea ridge called a pinning point
    • Pinning points slow ice flow but also cause compression and fracturing
    • Upstream of the pinning point lies a shear zone where ice deforms intensely

    Fracture patterns observed

    • Ice fracturing occurred in two stages
      • Long fractures parallel to ice flow
      • Smaller fractures perpendicular to ice flow
    • Annual fracture length increased sharply
      • From about 165 km in 2002
      • To about 335 km in 2022

    Consequences of fracturing

    • Breakdown of the shear zone accelerates ice flow
    • Faster ice flow increases ice discharge into the ocean
    • Raises risk of destabilisation of the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet

    Prelims Pointers

    • Thwaites Glacier is located in West Antarctica
    • Known as the Doomsday Glacier due to sea level rise potential
    • Complete melt could raise sea levels by about 65 cm
    • Study used satellite and GPS data over two decades
    • West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a global climate tipping element
    [2021] With reference to the water on the planet Earth, consider the following statements: 

    1. The amount of water in the rivers and lakes is more than the amount of groundwater

    2. The amount of water in polar ice caps and glaciers is more than the amount of groundwater

    Which of the statements given above is/are correct? 

    (a) 1 only (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2

  • India Becomes First Nation to Commercially Produce Bio Bitumen

    Why in the News?

    India has become the first country in the world to commercially produce bio bitumen, according to Union Minister for Road Transport and Highways Nitin Gadkari. The announcement highlights India’s push towards sustainable infrastructure and green alternatives in road construction.

    Bio Bitumen

    Bio bitumen is an eco friendly binding material used in road construction. It is produced from renewable biological sources instead of petroleum based crude derivatives.

    Raw materials used

    • Vegetable oils
      • Crop stubble and agricultural residue
      • Other forms of organic and agro waste

    Economic significance

    • With 15 percent blending, India can save nearly ₹4,500 crore in foreign exchange
      • Lowers import bill for petroleum based bitumen
      • Opens new income streams for farmers through agro waste supply
      • Generates rural employment and livelihood opportunities

    Prelims Pointers

    • India is the first nation to commercially produce bio bitumen
      • Bio bitumen is made from renewable biological sources
      • Used in road construction as a binding material
      • Helps reduce stubble burning and crude oil imports
      • Contributes to circular economy and sustainable development
    [2011] In the Union Budget 2011-12, a full exemption from the basic customs duty was extended to the bio-based asphalt (bioasphalt). What is the importance of this material? 

    1. Unlike traditional asphalt, bio-asphalt is not based on fossil fuels

    2. Bioasphalt can be made from non-renewable resources

    3. Bioasphalt can be made from organic waste materials

    4. It is eco-friendly to use bioasphalt for surfacing of the roads

    Select the correct answer using the code given below: 

    (a) 1, 2 and 3 only (b) 1, 3 and 4 only (c) 2 and 4 only (d) 1, 2, 3 and 4

  • India Bangladesh Ganga Water Sharing Treaty (1996)

    Why in the News?

    Senior officials from the Union Jal Shakti Ministry visited Farakka Barrage as the India–Bangladesh Ganga Water Sharing Treaty is set to expire in December 2026, ahead of renewal discussions between India and Bangladesh.

     About 

    • A bilateral treaty governing the sharing of Ganga (Ganges) river waters between India and Bangladesh during the dry season, with regulated releases at Farakka Barrage in West Bengal
    • Signed on 12 December 1996
    • Valid for 30 years
    • Renewable by mutual consent
    • Downstream monitoring at Hardinge Bridge in Bangladesh

    Background

    • Dry season water disputes date back to the 1950s
    • Interim arrangements were signed in 1977, 1982, and 1985
    • The 1996 treaty introduced a stable, rule based and long term framework for cooperation

    Key features

    • Ten day sharing schedule (January to May): Water allocation based on a formula using historical average flows from 1949 to 1988
    • Low flow consultation clause: If river flow falls below 50,000 cusecs in any ten day period, immediate bilateral consultation is required
    • Minimum release assurance: India ensures downstream releases, allowing limited withdrawals up to 200 cusecs for reasonable uses between Farakka and the Bangladesh border
    • Joint Committee mechanism: Equal representation from both countries. Daily monitoring at Farakka and Hardinge Bridge. Annual reports on implementation and dispute resolution
    • Review and renewal: Review every five years or earlier if necessary. Renewal only by mutual agreement.
    [2017] With reference to river Teesta, consider the following statements: 

    1. The source of river Teesta is the same as that of Brahmaputra but it flows through Sikkim. 

    2. River Rangeet originates in Sikkim and it is a tributary of river Teesta

    3. River Teesta flows into Bay of Bengal on the border of India and Bangladesh

    Which of the statements given above is/ are correct? 

    (a) 1 and 3 only (b) 2 only (c) 2 and 3 only (d) 1, 2 and 3

  • White dwarf system

    Why in the News?

    NASA’s Imaging X-ray Polarization Explorer (IXPE) has, for the first time, probed the internal structure of a white dwarf binary system by studying X ray polarisation. Observations of EX Hydrae revealed unexpected details about gas flows, magnetic accretion, and reflected X ray emission.

    Significance of IXPE observations

    • Enabled estimation of the height of hot accretion columns.
    • Detected X rays reflected off the white dwarf surface, a first for such systems.
    • Provided direct evidence to test theories of accretion physics, magnetic fields, and extreme states of matter.

    White Dwarf System

    A white dwarf system usually consists of a white dwarf and a companion star bound in a binary system. Matter from the companion is pulled towards the white dwarf due to its strong gravity.

    How it forms

    • A Sun like star exhausts nuclear fuel and sheds outer layers as a planetary nebula.
    • The leftover dense core becomes a white dwarf.
    • In binary systems, gas from the companion star accretes onto the white dwarf.
    • EX Hydrae belongs to a class called intermediate polars, where a moderate magnetic field partially disrupts the accretion disc and channels gas along magnetic field lines.

    Key characteristics

    • Extreme density: Mass comparable to the Sun, radius similar to Earth.
    • Degenerate matter: Supported by electron degeneracy pressure based on the Pauli Exclusion Principle, not fusion.
    • High energy emissions: Infalling gas heats to tens of millions of degrees, producing X rays.
    • Magnetic accretion: Gas flows in columns rising thousands of kilometres above the surface.
    • Chandrasekhar limit: Maximum stable mass about 1.4 times the Sun.

    Prelims Pointers

    • IXPE studies X ray polarisation, not imaging alone.
    • EX Hydrae is an intermediate polar type white dwarf system.
    • Accretion driven X ray emission occurs due to magnetic channeling.
    • White dwarfs are supported by electron degeneracy pressure.
    [2009] Who of the following scientists proved that the stars with mass less than 1.44 times the mass of the Sun end up as White Dwarfs when they die? 

    (a) Edwin Hubble 

    (b) S. Chandrashekhar 

    (c) Stephen Hawking 

    (d) Steven Weinberg

  • 🔴[UPSC Webinar for 2026] By Shivali Thakur, IRMS,UPSC CSE 2024 | Solve UPSC Prelims 2025 Paper Live with Me | Join on 9th Dec at 7PM

    🔴[UPSC Webinar for 2026] By Shivali Thakur, IRMS,UPSC CSE 2024 | Solve UPSC Prelims 2025 Paper Live with Me | Join on 9th Dec at 7PM

    Register for the session


    Read about Webinar

    Most aspirants analyse Prelims after the exam.
    Very few learn how to think during the paper.

    In this live session, I’ll solve the UPSC Prelims 2025 paper live with you, exactly the way I approached it, question by question, without hindsight bias.

    This is not about answers alone.
    It’s about decision making under pressure.

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    What I’ll do in this live session:

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    You will see how the same paper looks completely different when approached with the right framework.

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    Most aspirants:
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    Join us, for a 45 minute live Zoom session on 9th Jan at 7PM.

    See you in masterclass.



    It will be a 45 minute session, post which we will open up the floor for all kinds of queries which a beginner must have. No questions are taboo and Shivali Ma’am is known to be patiently solving all your doubts.

    Join us for a Zoom session on 9th Jan at 7 PM. This session is a must attend for you If you are attempting UPSC for the first time or have attempted earlier and now preparing for 2026/2027, then it is going to be a valuable session for you too.

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  • [8th Jaunary 2026] The Hindu OpED: Natgrid, the search engine of digital authoritarianism

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2023] What are the internal security challenges being faced by India? Give out the role of Central Intelligence and Investigative Agencies tasked to counter such threats.

    Linkage: NATGRID represents the technological backbone of intelligence coordination among central agencies. The question allows analysis of how intelligence reforms post-26/11 rely increasingly on data integration, while raising concerns of accountability and oversight.

    Mentor’s Comment

    This article examines the transformation of India’s intelligence architecture through the National Intelligence Grid (NATGRID). It evaluates how a system conceived after the 26/11 terror attacks for intelligence coordination is evolving into a large-scale, algorithm-driven surveillance infrastructure. The piece raises constitutional, institutional, and ethical concerns relevant to internal security, governance, civil liberties, and democratic accountability.

    Introduction

    Conceived as a technological “crown jewel,” NATGRID aimed to enable seamless intelligence coordination. However, its evolution from a post-crisis intelligence grid into a population-wide surveillance architecture marks a fundamental shift in India’s security-liberty balance.

    Why in the News?

    NATGRID has re-emerged as a major policy concern due to recent reports highlighting its expanded operationalisation, widening user base, and integration with the National Population Register (NPR). Intelligence access has shifted from post-event investigation to real-time, algorithmic risk assessment. The scale is unprecedented, around 45,000 queries per month, extended to state police officers down to the Superintendent of Police rank, marking a sharp departure from earlier centralised intelligence control. This expansion occurs without a statutory framework or independent oversight, raising fears of institutionalised mass surveillance and digital authoritarianism.

    Why did NATGRID emerge after 26/11?

    1. Intelligence Fragmentation: Identified failure to synthesise scattered inputs such as visa records, travel itineraries, hotel stays, and financial trails related to David Headley.
    2. Post-Crisis Imperative: Positioned as a technological fix to prevent future terror attacks through real-time data aggregation.
    3. Institutional Expansion: Envisioned as middleware enabling 11 central agencies to query databases across 21 categories, spanning identity, travel, telecom, finance, and assets.

    How did NATGRID evolve institutionally?

    1. Administrative Clearance: Operationalised through executive decisions rather than Parliamentary legislation.
    2. Delayed Rollout: Long gestation period led to perceptions of “vapourware” until post-2020 acceleration.
    3. Operational Activation: Publicly announced in 2009; cleared in 2012 without statutory safeguards; rebranded under Mission Mode Project “Horizon.”

    What scale of intelligence access does NATGRID now enable?

    1. Query Volume: Handles approximately 45,000 intelligence queries per month.
    2. User Expansion: Access widened beyond central agencies to state police officers up to SP rank.
    3. Routine Policing Shift: Intelligence access integrated into everyday law enforcement rather than exceptional counter-terror operations.

    Why does integration with NPR mark a structural break?

    1. Population Mapping: NPR data includes demographic, biometric, residential, lineage, and identity details.
    2. Function Creep: Converts a population register into an intelligence query platform.
    3. Paradigm Shift: Moves intelligence from tracking discrete events to continuous surveillance of individuals.
    4. Political Sensitivity: NPR’s linkage with NRC debates amplifies concerns of profiling and citizenship filtering.

    How does algorithmic policing change the nature of surveillance?

    1. Entity Resolution: Deployment of “Gandiva,” an analytics engine capable of linking fragmented datasets to identify individuals.
    2. Predictive Risk Assessment: Uses facial recognition, KYC databases, and driving licence records.
    3. Inference at Scale: Algorithms determine intent based on pattern recognition rather than human judgment.
    4. Bias Amplification: Existing social biases embedded in data risk reinforcing caste, religious, and geographic profiling.

    Why is lack of oversight a central concern?

    1. Absence of Statute: No dedicated law governing scope, limits, or accountability of NATGRID.
    2. Judicial Gap: Legality of large-scale intelligence surveillance remains unadjudicated despite pending cases.
    3. Clerical Overload: Tens of thousands of monthly requests undermine meaningful scrutiny.
    4. Autonomous Surveillance: Weak Parliamentary oversight allows self-justifying intelligence architectures.

    Why does the argument of “intelligence necessity” fall short?

    1. Operational Failures: 26/11 highlighted deficits in training and ground-level policing, not data scarcity.
    2. Over-Reliance on Technology: Intelligence failures often stem from institutional silos, not lack of databases.
    3. False Positives Risk: Automated “hits” can trigger irreversible harm without due process.
    4. Learning Deficit: Local police lacked firearm training during 26/11 despite intelligence availability.

    What constitutional values are at stake?

    1. Privacy Erosion: Expansive surveillance contradicts proportionality standards laid down in privacy jurisprudence.
    2. Due Process Deficit: Automated suspicion undermines presumption of innocence.
    3. Chilling Effect: Normalisation of surveillance reshapes citizen-state relations.
    4. Judicial Precedent: Reliance on Justice K.S. Puttaswamy (Retd.) v. Union of India (2017) contrasts with unchecked surveillance growth.

    Conclusion

    NATGRID reflects a decisive shift in India’s internal security architecture from intelligence coordination to continuous, technology-driven surveillance. While conceived to prevent failures like 26/11, its expansion in scale, scope, and access, without a clear statutory framework or independent oversight, raises fundamental concerns about privacy, proportionality, and democratic accountability. Intelligence systems that rely on algorithmic inference and population-wide data integration risk normalising suspicion and eroding constitutional safeguards. Effective counter-terrorism requires not only technological capability but also institutional accountability, legal clarity, and professional capacity-building. Without these correctives, NATGRID risks functioning less as a preventive security instrument and more as an enduring infrastructure of digital authoritarianism.

  • Why silver prices surfed at 160% wave in 2025

    Introduction

    Silver’s price escalation in 2025 reflects a transformation from a quasi-precious metal into a critical industrial and financial asset. Unlike gold, silver’s value is increasingly driven by its role in energy transition technologies, electronics, and advanced manufacturing, compounded by global supply constraints and portfolio diversification strategies amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

    Why in the News?

    Silver prices recorded an unprecedented 160% rise in 2025, crossing ₹1,00,000 per kg for the first time in December and extending gains into early 2026. This surge marks a sharp departure from earlier years when silver lagged behind gold despite industrial relevance. The rally is significant due to the simultaneous occurrence of global supply shortages, rising industrial demand, financial market inflows, and policy-driven monetary easing, indicating a structural rather than speculative price shift.

    Why did silver prices rise steadily through 2025?

    1. Price escalation trend: Silver spot prices rose from ₹85,913 per kg in January 2025 to ₹2,46,889 per kg by January 2026, reflecting sustained monthly gains rather than episodic spikes.
    2. Contrast with gold: While gold reached record highs, silver outperformed gold in percentage terms, breaking its traditional role as a lagging asset.

    How did monetary policy fuel silver’s rally?

    1. Interest rate expectations: Anticipation of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve reduced opportunity costs of holding non-yielding assets.
    2. Liquidity expansion: Easing global monetary conditions increased capital flows into commodities as inflation hedges.
    3. Debasement trade: Weakening of the US dollar revived investor preference for hard assets, including silver.

    What role did industrial demand play in driving prices?

    1. Energy transition demand: Silver usage expanded in solar panels, batteries, and electronics, making it integral to climate-transition infrastructure.
    2. Artificial Intelligence applications: AI-driven data centres and electronics increased silver consumption across high-conductivity components.
    3. Demand breadth: Unlike gold, silver’s value is supported by simultaneous investment and consumption demand, amplifying price momentum.

    Why did global supply fail to keep pace with demand?

    1. By-product mining constraint: Silver production depends largely on extraction alongside other metals, limiting supply responsiveness.
    2. Supply-demand imbalance: Global silver output did not rise proportionately despite demand expansion in renewables and electronics.
    3. Critical mineral status: The US Geological Survey added silver to its critical minerals list, highlighting strategic vulnerability.
    4. Geopolitical signalling: China’s inclusion of silver in its critical minerals list reinforced scarcity perceptions.

    How did physical shortages in global markets amplify prices?

    1. London market disruption: Physical silver shortages emerged in London, a key global trading hub.
    2. Inventory depletion: Stockpiles in the US declined sharply as inventories were drawn down to meet rising demand.
    3. Delivery constraints: Supply mismatches reduced confidence in paper silver contracts, increasing preference for physical holdings.

    What role did financialisation and ETFs play?

    1. ETF inflows: Silver Exchange Traded Funds attracted strong inflows, especially after September 2025.
    2. Passive investment growth: Low-cost ETFs expanded retail and institutional exposure to silver.
    3. Momentum reinforcement: ETF buying converts price expectations into actual market demand.

    Why did fear psychology matter in this rally?

    1. Stockpiling behaviour: US inventory accumulation triggered expectations of prolonged shortages.
    2. Self-fulfilling cycle: Fear of missing out encouraged accelerated buying, pushing prices higher.
    3. Market signalling: Rising prices validated scarcity narratives, reinforcing investor confidence.

    Conclusion

    The 2025 silver rally represents a structural realignment driven by industrial indispensability, constrained supply, financialisation, and macroeconomic easing. Unlike past speculative cycles, silver’s price surge reflects deeper shifts in global production systems and energy priorities. Managing such strategic commodities will be central to future economic resilience and sustainable growth.

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2024] What are the causes of persistent high food inflation in India? Comment on the effectiveness of the monetary policy of the RBI to control this type of inflation.

    Linkage: The silver rally shows how global liquidity and supply constraints drive commodity inflation beyond the reach of monetary policy. It helps explain limits of RBI tools in controlling cost-push inflation, strengthening GS-III answers on inflation management.

  • India’s progress on its climate targets

    Introduction

    India’s climate commitments under the Paris Agreement reflect the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities, balancing development imperatives with environmental responsibility. While headline indicators show substantial compliance, deeper analysis reveals incomplete decoupling between growth and emissions, structural dependence on coal, and gaps between capacity creation and actual decarbonisation outcomes.

    Why in the News?

    India has recorded significant progress on climate metrics such as emissions intensity reduction and non-fossil power capacity expansion. Emissions intensity declined by nearly 36% between 2005 and 2020, placing India ahead of its 2030 target of 33-35% reduction. Installed non-fossil capacity crossed 40% of total capacity, achieving a Paris commitment nearly a decade early. However, absolute emissions continue to rise, forest carbon sinks remain overstated, and renewable capacity has not proportionally translated into electricity generation. The divergence between numerical targets and real climate outcomes makes this a critical inflection point.

    Has India Successfully Reduced Its Emissions Intensity?

    1. Emissions Intensity Reduction: Declined by approximately 36% from 2005 to 2020, exceeding the 2030 target of 33-35%.
    2. Comparative Performance: Intensity decline outperforms most G20 peers despite lower per-capita emissions.
    3. Structural Drivers: Renewable capacity expansion, efficiency improvements in power generation, and sectoral shifts towards services.
    4. Limitation: Intensity reduction masks rising absolute emissions due to economic expansion.

    Why Do Absolute Emissions Continue to Rise?

    1. Incomplete Decoupling: GDP growth has outpaced emissions growth, but emissions have not declined in absolute terms.
    2. Emission Levels: Territorial greenhouse gas emissions stood at ~2,959 MtCO₂e in 2020 and continue to increase.
    3. Sectoral Divergence: Power sector emissions grow faster than industrial emissions due to coal dependence.
    4. Policy Implication: Intensity-based targets delay hard choices on fossil fuel phase-down.

    Has Renewable Capacity Expansion Translated into Clean Power Generation?

    1. Installed Capacity: Non-fossil capacity crossed 40% by 2025, nearly ten years ahead of schedule.
    2. Generation Share: Non-fossil generation remains substantially lower due to grid constraints and intermittency.
    3. Coal Dominance: India retains 253 GW of coal-based capacity, providing baseload power.
    4. Curtailment Losses: Grid congestion and state-level regulatory bottlenecks limit renewable utilisation.
    5. Storage Gap: Against a projected requirement of 336 GWh of storage by 2029-30, only 500 MW of battery storage is operational as of September 2025.

    Are Forest-Based Carbon Sink Targets Credible?

    1. Official Claim: India reports 30.43 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent forest carbon stock.
    2. 2030 Target: Additional 2.5-3 billion tonnes CO₂e sequestration through forests.
    3. Measurement Issue: Forest Survey of India defines “forest cover” as land above one hectare with over 10% canopy, including plantations and monocultures.
    4. Satellite Evidence: Natural forest cover increased only 156 sq km between 2015-2023, while recorded forest cover rose by over 75,000 sq km.
    5. CAMPA Utilisation: Of ₹95,000 crore available, only 23% utilised between 2019-20 and 2023-24.
    6. Policy Risk: Over-reliance on plantations weakens biodiversity and long-term carbon stability.

    Why Does the Gap Persist Between Targets and Outcomes?

    1. Capacity vs Output Gap: Renewable installations do not proportionately increase clean electricity generation.
    2. Grid Infrastructure Deficit: Transmission, balancing capacity, and storage expansion lag behind capacity addition.
    3. Policy Fragmentation: Climate governance prioritises accounting compliance over ecological restoration.
    4. Administrative Frictions: Delays in land acquisition, approvals, and state coordination limit execution.

    What Are the Critical Challenges Ahead?

    1. Coal Lock-in: Continued investment in coal infrastructure constrains long-term decarbonisation.
    2. Storage Scaling: Energy transition hinges on rapid deployment of battery and pumped storage.
    3. Data Transparency: Overstated forest metrics undermine credibility of carbon sink commitments.
    4. Climate Stress: Rising heatwaves and water stress challenge forest productivity and carbon assimilation.

    Conclusion

    India has delivered on quantified climate commitments but remains short of achieving ecological transformation. The next phase requires shifting from intensity-led compliance to outcome-oriented decarbonisation through coal phase-down, grid modernisation, credible carbon accounting, and governance reform.

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2021] Describe the major outcome of the 26th session of the Conference of Parties [COP] to the United Nations Framework conversation on climate change [UNFCCC]. What are the commitments made by India in this conference.

    Linkage: This question links to the article’s evaluation of India’s COP-26 commitments, showing that while emissions intensity reduction and non-fossil capacity targets are being met, absolute emissions continue to rise. It highlights the UPSC focus on assessing climate pledges against actual outcomes, especially coal dependence and gaps in real decarbonisation.

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