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Subject: Bilateral Relations

1. Major World Events
2. India’s Interests in neighbourhood
3. Effects of our Policies

  • Amidst regional ferment, Kurds’ quest for statehood

    Why in the News?

    The chances of Kurds achieving statehood have improved, but they are still divided by national, tribal, and internal ethnic differences.

    What is the current geopolitical situation in West Asia?

    • Rising Tensions Between Israel and Arab States: The Israeli government’s hardline stance on the Palestinian issue is at odds with Arab nations’ insistence on a two-state solution. The expansion of the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and certain Arab countries, is now being challenged by this conflict. Eg, the Israeli government’s policies have led to a strained relationship with countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, who continue to push for Palestinian statehood.
    • Weakened Iran and Resumption of U.S. Pressure: Iran’s geopolitical influence is diminishing due to both internal instability and external pressure from the U.S., including sanctions and military threats. Iran has agreed to negotiate its nuclear program as part of this dynamic. Eg, the U.S. has imposed “maximum pressure” tactics, leading to renewed discussions on Iran’s nuclear capabilities, showing a shift in regional power balances.
    • Economic Instability Due to Declining Oil Prices: The decline in oil prices by 20% in 2025 has raised concerns about the economic stability of the region, which heavily depends on oil exports. This has already caused volatility in the economies of Gulf countries, impacting countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, where the oil sector is a significant source of revenue.

    How is it impacting the Kurdish quest for statehood?

    • Weakened Regional Powers Create Opportunities for Kurdish Autonomy: The instability and weakening of central authorities in Iraq, Syria, and Iran have created opportunities for Kurdish groups to assert autonomy and establish a foothold in the region. Eg, the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq has gained considerable autonomy since the 1990s, and the Kurdish Self Defense Forces (SDF) control significant portions of northern Syria, both reflecting a push for Kurdish statehood amidst regional chaos.
    • Absence of a Unifying Kurdish National Movement: Despite these opportunities, the Kurds lack a unifying ideology or transnational political entity to consolidate their ambitions for statehood. Eg, while some Kurdish factions in Iraq and Syria have made strides towards self-governance, the absence of a coordinated regional Kurdish political structure has hindered their ability to form a fully recognized Kurdish state.

    Why did the Kurds fail to achieve statehood after the 1920 Treaty of Sevres?

    • Opposition from the Turkish Nationalists: The Treaty of Sevres in 1920 promised the Kurds an autonomous state in eastern Turkey, but it was thwarted by the rise of Turkish nationalism under Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. Eg, the Turkish nationalist movement rejected the idea of a Kurdish state, and Atatürk’s forces succeeded in establishing the Republic of Turkey, which vehemently opposed Kurdish autonomy.
    • Geopolitical Interests of Western Powers: The Western powers, who supported the Treaty of Sevres, were more focused on dismantling the Ottoman Empire and securing their own geopolitical interests in the region, rather than prioritizing Kurdish self-determination. Eg, the Treaty was eventually replaced by the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923, which ignored Kurdish aspirations and reinforced the territorial integrity of Turkey, sidelining the Kurds.

    How has Turkish repression of Kurds led to the formation of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party)?

    • Suppression of Kurdish Identity: Turkish repression of Kurdish culture, language, and political rights led to widespread resentment among the Kurdish population. Eg, in the 1980s, the Turkish government officially classified Kurds as “mountain Turks” and banned the use of the Kurdish language, which prompted a reaction from Kurdish activists.
    • Formation of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party): In 1978, Abdullah Öcalan founded the PKK to demand Kurdish independence through armed struggle, responding to decades of discrimination and oppression. Eg, the PKK launched an insurgency in 1984, which led to a prolonged conflict with the Turkish state, causing tens of thousands of deaths.

    What role has the Kurdish Self-Defence Force (SDF) played in Syria? 

    • Fighting Against Terrorist Groups: The Kurdish Self Defence Force (SDF) played a crucial role in fighting against ISIS and al-Qaeda in Syria, particularly in the northern regions. Eg, the SDF, with support from the U.S., was instrumental in the liberation of Raqqa, the de facto capital of ISIS, in 2017.
    • Control Over Syrian Territories: The SDF currently controls nearly 40% of Syria, establishing significant political and military influence. Eg, the SDF’s control over areas like Kobani and Manbij has been a source of tension with Turkey, which accuses the SDF of having links to the PKK.

    How is the potential reduction of American military presence affecting their future?

    • Loss of Strategic Support for Kurdish Forces: The reduction of American military presence in Syria could undermine the Kurdish Self-Defense Forces (SDF), who have heavily relied on U.S. military support in their fight against groups like ISIS. Without this backing, the SDF may face greater vulnerability to Turkish military operations, which view the Kurdish forces as aligned with the PKK. Eg: The SDF’s influence in Syria could diminish, particularly in regions where they have fought hard to establish autonomy, such as in the northeast of the country.
    • Increased Regional Instability: The pullback of U.S. forces could embolden regional powers like Turkey, Iran, and Syria to exert more control over Kurdish regions, weakening their position in any future negotiations for statehood or autonomy. It could lead to more internal conflict and repression within Kurdish-majority areas. Eg: Turkey, already critical of the SDF’s alignment with PKK, could launch more aggressive military operations, further displacing Kurdish communities in Syria.

    How can India take advantage of it? (Way Forward)

    • Strategic Partnerships and Influence in West Asia: India can leverage the evolving geopolitical dynamics in West Asia to strengthen its strategic ties with Kurdish regions, particularly in Iraq and Syria. India can increase its diplomatic and economic engagement with Kurdish political entities to gain influence in the region. Eg: India can build stronger relations with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq, offering support in areas like education, healthcare, and infrastructure, which may enhance India’s influence in the region.
    • Energy and Trade Opportunities: As Kurdish regions, especially in Iraq, are rich in oil resources, India can increase its energy imports from Kurdish-controlled areas. Securing energy deals with the KRG could help India diversify its energy supply sources and reduce reliance on traditional suppliers. Eg: India could expand its participation in oil exploration and infrastructure projects in the Kurdish region, similar to its involvement in the development of oil fields in Iraq.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2019] Explain how the foundations of the modern world were laid by the American and French revolution.

    Linkage: Both the American and French Revolutions championed the ideals of self-determination and nationalism, which have been significant drivers for various ethnic groups, including the Kurds, seeking statehood. Understanding the impact of these revolutions on the formation of the modern nation-state system provides a broader context for the Kurdish quest.

  • Pakistan suspends 1972 Simla Agreement

    Why in the News?

    Pakistan has announced its decision to suspend the Simla Agreement with India, a landmark peace accord signed in 1972 following the India-Pakistan war.

    Simla Agreement

    About the Simla Agreement

    • The Simla Agreement was signed on July 2, 1972, between Indira Gandhi (India) and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto (Pakistan) following the 1971 India-Pakistan war and the creation of Bangladesh.
    • The agreement aimed to establish lasting peace, address issues arising from the war, and reaffirm respect for the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir.

    Key Terms of the Agreement:

    1. Respect for Territorial Integrity: Both countries agreed to respect sovereignty and internal affairs, with the LoC as the de facto boundary in Kashmir.
    2. Line of Control (LoC): Both parties agreed not to alter the LoC unilaterally, maintaining its status established after the 1971 ceasefire.
    3. Promotion of Durable Peace: A commitment to resolve disputes peacefully and normalize relations, including transportation, postal services, and trade.
    4. Dispute Resolution: The agreement emphasized bilateral dialogue for resolving issues, particularly the Kashmir dispute, without third-party intervention.
    5. Non-interference & No Use of Force: Both nations pledged to refrain from interfering in internal matters and from using force or threats of force.

    Line of Control (LoC) and the 1949 Karachi Agreement:

    • Following the 1947-48 India-Pakistan war, a UN-brokered ceasefire led to the establishment of the LoC.
    • The 1949 Karachi Agreement demarcated the ceasefire line, running from Manawar (south) to the glaciers (north), forming the basis for the LoC.
    • Despite the Simla Agreement, there have been multiple conflicts, such as Siachen (1984) and Kargil War (1999), where Pakistan attempted to alter the LoC, leading to military responses from India.

    Challenges in Implementing the Agreement

    • Kargil War (1999): Pakistan’s violation of the LoC during the Kargil War highlighted ongoing tensions.
    • Siachen Glacier: Pakistan’s actions in the Siachen Glacier conflict violated the agreement, leading to military action (Operation Meghdoot, 1984) by India.
    [UPSC 2003] Consider the following statements regarding the relations between India and Pakistan:

    1. During Shimla Agreement, Indira Gandhi and Zulfikar Bhutto agreed to maintain the sanctity of LOC.

    2. Lahore Summit took place in the year 1997.

    3. Islamabad Summit was held between Rajiv Gandhi and Nawaz Sharif.

    Which of these statements is/are correct?

    Options: (a) 1, 2 and 3 (b) 1 and 3 (c) Only 2 (d) Only 1*

     

  • India suspends Indus Water Treaty

    Why in the News?

    In response to the Pahalgam Terror Attack, India has officially announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan.

    About the Indus Water Treaty (IWT)

    • IWT was signed between India and Pakistan on September 19, 1960, with mediation from the World Bank.
    • The treaty allocates the Western rivers (Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum) to Pakistan, and the Eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) to India.
    • Approximately 80% of the water is allocated to Pakistan, with 20% to India.
    • The Permanent Indus Commission was established to facilitate communication and dispute resolution.
    • The treaty includes a three-step process for resolving disputes, which involves the Permanent Indus Commission, Neutral Experts (appointed by World Bank), and a Court of Arbitration if needed.

    Implications of Suspension:

    • India’s Opportunities:
      • Though not immediately, but India can now control the water flow from the Indus River system, allowing it to divert, stop, or alter the flow of water.
      • India can expand hydroelectric projects on the Western rivers, such as the Kishanganga and Ratle Hydroelectric Projects, with more projects under scrutiny.
    • Impact on Pakistan:
      • Agriculture: Pakistan’s agricultural sector heavily depends on the Indus River, and any disruption could cause food insecurity and economic distress for millions of farmers.
      • Power Supply: Pakistan’s hydroelectric power generation depends on the water flow, with Tarbela Dam (on the Indus River) and Mangla Dam (on the Jhelum River) facing reduced water supplies, leading to electricity shortages.

    Alternatives for Pakistan:

    • No Legal Exit: No legal exit clause in the treaty; also, India cannot unilaterally suspend it.
    • Dispute Resolution: Pakistan can approach the Permanent Indus Commission, request Neutral Experts, or escalate to the World Bank’s Court of Arbitration.
    • International Diplomacy: Pakistan may seek diplomatic solutions through international forums, including leveraging support from other nations.
    [UPSC 2009] Consider the following statements:

    1. The Baglihar Power Project had been constructed within the parameters of the Indus Water Treaty.

    2. The project was completely built by the Union Government with loans from Japan and the World Bank.

    Options: (a) 1 only * (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2

    [UPSC 2021] With reference to the Indus River system, among the following four rivers, one of them joins the Indus directly:

    Options: (a) Chenab (b) Jhelum (c) Ravi (d) Sutlej

     

  • [22th April 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: India, China at 75 — a time for strategy, not sentiment

    PYQ Relevance:

    [UPSC 2024] The West is fostering India as an alternative to reduce dependence on China’s supply chain and as a strategic ally to counter China’s political and economic dominance.’ Explain this statement with examples.

    Linkage: The strategic dimension of India’s position in relation to China and the West. This article also touches upon this aspect, noting the potential pressure on India to align more closely with the U.S. to counter China.

     

    Mentor’s Comment:  China is now the biggest external influence on India’s foreign policy. From border issues to trade and defence, every move is shaped by the “China lens.” Tensions remain high at the LAC since the 2020 Galwan clash. While India stays alert militarily, trade ties continue, showing a paradox—India deters China at the border but relies on it economically.

    Today’s editorial explains how China affects India’s foreign policy, especially in areas like trade and border tensions. It highlights how India is trying to manage both security concerns and economic ties with China. This topic is useful for GS Paper 2 (Mains) under International Relations.

    _

    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    As India and China mark 75 years of ties, their relationship faces border tensions and rivalry, yet offers chances for cooperation, economic links, and shared responsibility in ensuring regional peace.

    What are the key challenges in India-China relations, especially regarding borders and strategic rivalry?

    • Contested Borders and Military Tensions: The Line of Actual Control (LAC) remains heavily militarized, with both countries having stationed thousands of troops in sensitive regions like Eastern Ladakh. Eg: The 2020 Galwan Valley clash resulted in casualties on both sides and highlighted the vulnerability of the LAC to conflict and miscalculation.
    • Historical Border Disputes: The unresolved boundary dispute, particularly over regions like Aksai Chin (claimed by India) and Arunachal Pradesh (claimed by China), continues to strain relations. Eg: The 1962 Sino-Indian War remains a traumatic event in India-China relations, and its legacy still influences border security strategies.
    • Strategic Rivalry in South Asia: China’s growing presence in South Asia through infrastructure projects and loans has directly challenged India’s regional influence. Eg: China’s involvement in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port and infrastructure projects in Nepal and the Maldives are seen as part of China’s strategic push into India’s traditional sphere of influence.
    • Economic Interdependence vs. National Security: Despite military tensions, India remains economically tied to China, particularly in trade, electronics, and pharmaceuticals, creating a paradox between economic cooperation and security concerns. Eg: China is India’s largest trading partner, but India faces a trade imbalance of around $100 billion in favor of China, raising concerns over economic over-dependence.
    • China’s Regional Ambitions and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and growing influence in neighboring countries challenge India’s leadership role in the region.Eg: China’s infrastructure investments in Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) pass through contested regions like Gilgit-Baltistan, which India claims as part of Jammu and Kashmir.

    Why does the “China lens shape India’s foreign policy”?

    • Security and Border Infrastructure Concerns: China poses the most significant military threat to India, especially along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), necessitating constant vigilance and preparedness. Eg: The permanent deployment of over 60,000 Indian troops in Eastern Ladakh after the 2020 Galwan clash reflects how China shapes India’s defense planning.
    • Economic Dependencies and Trade Imbalance: India relies heavily on Chinese imports for critical sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and machinery, creating a dilemma between strategic autonomy and economic needs. Eg: In 2024-25, India’s trade deficit with China approached $100 billion, despite efforts to diversify supply chains and ban certain Chinese apps.
    • Geopolitical and Strategic Competition in the Region: China’s growing influence in South Asia and its partnerships with India’s neighbors challenge India’s regional leadership and influence. Eg: China’s funding of Pokhara Airport in Nepal and strategic ties with countries like Bangladesh and Maldives push India to recalibrate its diplomacy and regional engagement strategies.

    How has India’s approach to China evolved since the 1962 war and the 2020 Galwan clash?

    • From Idealism to Realism in Diplomacy: The early vision of Asian solidarity post-1947 has given way to a more cautious and pragmatic approach, shaped by hard security realities. Eg: After the 1962 war, India abandoned Nehruvian idealism and began strengthening its military and forging new alliances.
    • Shift from Engagement to Strategic Deterrence: Post-Galwan, India has moved away from soft engagement to a policy of firm deterrence and military preparedness. Eg: Permanent deployment of troops and infrastructure upgrades in Eastern Ladakh reflect a proactive defense posture.
    • Emergence of “Competitive Coexistence”: India now balances economic engagement with strategic competition, avoiding full decoupling while safeguarding national interests. Eg: Despite border tensions, India continues trade with China, participates in platforms like SCO and BRICS, and simultaneously deepens ties with the Quad.

    What does “competitive coexistence” mean? 

    “Competitive coexistence” refers to India’s strategy of managing its complex relationship with China by simultaneously competing in strategic and regional influence while maintaining economic and diplomatic engagement. It balances military vigilance with dialogue, allowing India to protect its interests without complete decoupling, fostering stability amid rivalry and interdependence.

    How does it balance India’s strategy with economic ties to China?

    • Selective Economic Engagement: India continues trade in non-strategic sectors (like consumer goods, raw materials) while restricting Chinese influence in critical infrastructure and tech. Eg: India imports electronics and machinery from China, but bans Chinese apps like TikTok and restricts Huawei from 5G rollout.
    • Investment Scrutiny with Trade Continuity:India tightens FDI rules from neighboring countries (especially China) post-Galwan (2020), while not blocking trade outright. Eg: Chinese firms need government approval to invest in Indian startups, but bilateral trade crossed $135 billion in 2023.
    • Self-Reliance Push (Atmanirbhar Bharat): India reduces dependence on Chinese imports by incentivizing local manufacturing and diversifying suppliers. Eg: Through the PLI Scheme, India promotes domestic production of electronics, APIs (for pharma), and solar panels.
    • Strategic Dialogue + Border Vigilance: India engages diplomatically with China (e.g., 19th Corps Commander-level talks) while reinforcing military presence at LAC. Eg: Border patrol protocols resumed in Jan 2025 in Eastern Ladakh, showing balance between dialogue and deterrence.
    • Multilateral Cooperation Without Alignment: India cooperates with China in BRICS and SCO, while counterbalancing through Quad and Indo-Pacific strategies. Eg: India joins China-led New Development Bank, yet also conducts Malabar naval exercises with the U.S., Japan, and Australia.

    Way forward: 

    • Enhanced Diplomatic Engagement with Strategic Boundaries: India should continue to strengthen diplomatic channels while ensuring border security through regular high-level talks, establishing confidence-building measures to reduce tensions along the LAC.
    • Diversification of Economic Partnerships and Technological Independence: India should further reduce economic dependency on China by promoting indigenous industries and exploring alternative trade routes and partnerships with other countries to balance economic growth with national security concerns.

  • Understanding India’s China conundrum

    Why in the News?

    Today’s China is clearly very different from the time of Deng Xiaoping. Since Xi Jinping took power in 2013, China has changed even more, and there’s little sign that it plans to go back to its earlier approach.

    Why is China’s reference to its past and civilisational wrongs worrying for neighbours like India?

    • Revival of Imperial Borders: China increasingly invokes the idea of restoring historical boundaries, particularly from the Qing Dynasty era, as part of its national rejuvenation narrative. This fuels aggressive territorial claims along its borders, including the Himalayas. Eg: Galwan Valley clash (2020) and Doklam standoff (2017) stemmed from China’s assertion of areas it considers historically part of its territory.
    • Narrative of Victimhood and Justification for Aggression: By portraying itself as a wronged civilisation that suffered during the “Century of Humiliation,” China seeks to justify its assertive and sometimes aggressive policies. This historical grievance can be weaponised to rationalise border incursions or political pressure. Eg: China’s repeated provocations in Ladakh are often accompanied by narratives about safeguarding sovereignty and correcting past “injustices”.
    • Undermining Trust and Stability in the Region: Civilisational rhetoric makes China appear unpredictable and ideologically rigid, reducing the room for compromise or pragmatic dialogue. Diplomatic efforts may be overshadowed by a deep-seated belief in historical entitlement, affecting long-term peace and confidence-building. Eg: Despite de-escalation talks, China maintains over a lakh soldiers with heavy weaponry in Ladakh, showing the mismatch between words and actions.

    What do incidents reveal about China’s border ambitions?

    • Assertion of Historical Claims: China seeks to enforce its version of historical borders, often disregarding settled agreements or established boundaries. Eg: In Doklam (2017), China attempted to build a road near the India-Bhutan-China tri-junction, claiming it as part of “historical Chinese territory”.
    • Testing India’s Military and Diplomatic Response: Provocations are used to gauge India’s preparedness, resolve, and red lines in high-altitude and remote border regions. Eg: The Galwan clash (2020) tested India’s military presence in Eastern Ladakh, where both sides suffered casualties.
    • Salami Slicing Strategy: China advances its territorial ambitions incrementally—occupying small patches of disputed land to gradually shift the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Eg: Reports of Chinese infrastructure buildup in Depsang Plains and Demchok indicate creeping occupation tactics.

    How does China’s military and tech build-up affect India’s defence readiness?

    • Late 2024 – Signs of De-escalation: A thaw began in late 2024, marked by steps to ease tensions at border friction points. Eg: De-escalation started just before the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia (October 2024).
    • Border Patrolling Agreement Announced: An India-China Border Patrolling Agreement was informally referenced as a framework to manage patrolling in the Himalayas. Eg: Though details remained sketchy, the agreement was viewed as a tentative breakthrough in restoring order along the LAC.
    • Chinese Defence Ministry’s Statement (November 2024): China officially acknowledged progress in implementing the disengagement and patrolling settlement. Eg: A Chinese Defence Ministry spokesperson stated the hope for a “harmonious dance between the Chinese Dragon and the Indian Elephant.”
    • India’s PM Statement in the U.S. (February 2025): Indian PM, during a visit to the U.S., declared that normalcy had returned to the border. Eg: He emphasized cooperation with China as essential for global peace and prosperity.

    Which regional moves call for a foreign policy rethink by India?

    • China’s Outreach to Bangladesh: After the political transition in Bangladesh, China deepened ties with the new leadership. Eg: Visit of Bangladesh’s Chief Adviser Mohammed Yunus to China in March 2025, after Sheikh Hasina’s eclipse.
    • China’s Inroads in India’s Neighbourhood: China actively seeks new alliances in South Asia, undermining India’s traditional influence. Eg: Countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka, and now Bangladesh are being courted by China with investments and diplomatic engagement.
    • Neglect of West Asia and North Africa: India’s recent foreign focus has tilted towards the U.S., while West Asia and North Africa have seen less engagement. Example: China’s growing presence in energy partnerships and infrastructure in the Middle East and Africa poses strategic challenges.
    • China’s Advance in African Nuclear Sector: China is gaining access to nuclear energy resources in Africa, positioning itself as a key energy partner.Eg: China’s strategic energy investments in Africa give it leverage over future global energy security, where India lags behind.
    • Great Power Competition and China’s Strategic Penetration: China’s rapid expansion through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) creates a web of influence around India. Eg: Strategic infrastructure in Myanmar, Maldives, and the Indian Ocean region reshapes regional geopolitics in China’s favour.

    What are the steps taken by the Indian government?

    • Act East Policy Revamp: Strengthening ties with Southeast Asian nations like Vietnam, Philippines, and Indonesia. Eg: India’s maritime cooperation and defence agreements with ASEAN countries.
    • Neighbourhood First Policy: Renewed focus on diplomatic and developmental engagement with South Asian neighbours.Eg: Infrastructure and energy projects in Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka, including India-funded railways and power grids.
    • Deepening Quad and Indo-Pacific Strategy: Enhanced coordination with USA, Japan, and Australia under the Quad framework. Eg: Joint naval exercises like Malabar, and focus on free and open Indo-Pacific.
    • Strategic Infrastructure Development: Accelerated development of border infrastructure in sensitive regions to counter Chinese encroachments. Eg: Fast-tracking roads, tunnels, and airstrips in Arunachal Pradesh, Ladakh, and Sikkim.
    • Enhanced Defence Diplomacy: Upgrading military-to-military engagements and arms exports to friendly nations. Eg: Supplying Tejas fighter jets to Argentina and BrahMos missiles to the Philippines.

    Way forward: 

    • Build a Multi-Domain Deterrence Framework: India must develop coordinated military, cyber, space, and maritime capabilities to counter China’s growing influence across all strategic domains. Eg: Strengthening the Defence Cyber Agency, expanding India’s space surveillance, and enhancing undersea monitoring in the Indian Ocean to deter any surprise escalation.
    • Expand Strategic Partnerships Beyond the Quad: India should diversify its strategic alignments by engaging European powers (like France and Germany), Middle East partners (like UAE, Israel), and Africa through trade, defence, and technological cooperation. Eg: India-France Indo-Pacific cooperation and India-UAE-France trilateral initiatives can counterbalance China’s BRI-led influence.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2020] What is the significance of Indo-US defence deals over Indo-Russian defence deals? Discuss with reference to stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

    Linkage: India’s strategic partnerships play an important role in maintaining peace in the region, especially as China grows stronger militarily, acts aggressively like in Galwan, and expands its influence in the Indo-Pacific.

  • India holds fire as Trump announces tariffs

    Why in the News?

    India faces lower U.S. tariffs than its rivals, making its exports more competitive. This can help expand market share and strengthen trade ties, possibly securing better terms through a future Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA).

    India faces lower U.S. tariffs than its rivals, making its exports more competitive. This can help expand market share and strengthen trade ties, possibly securing better terms through a future Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA).

    Why did Trump impose “reciprocal tariffs” on countries like India?

    • Addressing Trade Deficits: Trump viewed large U.S. trade deficits as a national emergency and sought to correct them. Eg: India had a $30+ billion trade surplus with the U.S. in 2019, prompting higher tariffs.
    • High Tariffs by Trading Partners: Claimed that countries like India imposed higher tariffs on U.S. goods while enjoying low tariffs in return. Eg: India’s 52% tariff on U.S. goods (as per Trump’s claim) led to a 27% tariff on Indian exports.
    • Legal Justification Under IEEPA (1977): Used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify tariffs as a response to economic threats. Eg: Trump declared April 2 as “Liberation Day”, marking U.S. retaliation against trade imbalances.
    • Targeting Specific Sectors with Unfair Trade Practices: Accused India of protecting key industries with high tariffs and non-tariff barriers. Eg: India’s high tariffs on motorcycles (100% in 2017, later reduced to 30%) were cited as unfair.
    • Political Strategy for U.S. Domestic Industry: Aimed to protect American jobs and industries by reducing competition from low-cost imports. Eg: Tariffs targeted India’s gems, jewelry, and textiles sectors to favor U.S. producers.

    Why was India’s response to the U.S. tariffs muted compared to others?

    • Ongoing Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) Talks: India was engaged in negotiations with the U.S. for a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) and did not want to escalate tensions. Eg: The Commerce Ministry stated that India values its Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership with the U.S. and remained committed to BTA discussions.
    • Lower Tariff Impact Compared to Regional Competitors: India’s 27% tariff penalty was lower than those imposed on Vietnam (46%), Thailand (37%), Bangladesh (37%), and Sri Lanka (44%), offering a slight comparative advantage. Eg: Indian exports faced less severe tariffs than competitors, reducing the immediate urgency for a retaliatory response.
    • Focus on Exploring New Trade Opportunities: Instead of retaliation, India sought to leverage shifting global trade patterns and assess how the tariffs might create new export opportunities. Eg: The Commerce Ministry stated that it was studying “opportunities that may arise due to this new development.”
    • Avoiding Direct Confrontation with a Key Strategic Partner: India prioritized maintaining strong diplomatic and strategic ties with the U.S., especially given their defense, geopolitical, and economic partnerships. Eg: Unlike China or the EU, which threatened countermeasures, India’s official statement was measured and non-confrontational.
    • Selective Impact on Indian Industries: While some sectors like gems and jewelry were hit hard, others, such as automobiles and auto parts, were not significantly affected, reducing the immediate urgency for a strong reaction. Eg: The Gems & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) called for a quick resolution but did not demand aggressive retaliation.

    Which Indian sectors are most affected by the 27% U.S. tariff?

    • Gems & Jewelry Industry: The U.S. accounts for over 30% of India’s $32 billion annual gems and jewellery exports, making it the hardest-hit sector. Eg: The Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) warned that sustaining India’s $10 billion export volume to the U.S. would be challenging.
    • Textile & Apparel Sector: India is a major exporter of textiles and garments to the U.S., and higher tariffs could reduce price competitiveness against rivals like Vietnam and Bangladesh. Eg: The tariff increase could lead to order cancellations or a shift in sourcing to lower-tariff countries.
    • Processed Food & Agricultural Exports: India exports rice, tea, spices, and processed food to the U.S., which are now subject to higher tariffs, making them more expensive for American consumers. Eg: Indian basmati rice and processed mango products could face a drop in demand due to higher costs.

    How could India gain a comparative advantage? (Way forward) 

    • Lower Tariff Impact Compared to Competitors: India’s 27% tariff is lower than Vietnam (46%), Thailand (37%), Bangladesh (37%), and Sri Lanka (44%), making Indian goods relatively cheaper in the U.S. market. Eg: Indian textile and leather exports could remain more competitive than those from Bangladesh or Vietnam.
    • Potential Market Share Expansion: Higher tariffs on regional competitors may shift U.S. import preferences toward India, increasing Indian exports in affected sectors. Eg: If Bangladesh’s apparel exports become too costly, U.S. buyers may turn to Indian manufacturers for sourcing.
    • Strengthened Trade Relations with the U.S: By maintaining a measured diplomatic response and continuing trade negotiations, India can secure long-term benefits through a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). Eg: A favorable BTA could lead to tariff reductions or exemptions for key Indian industries like pharmaceuticals and IT services.

    Mains PYQ:

    Question: How would the recent phenomena of protectionism and currency manipulations in world trade affect the macroeconomic stability of India? [UPSC 2022]

    Linkage: The potential impact of protectionist measures (like tariffs) on India’s economy.

  • Bangladesh events, a reflection of South Asia’s minorities

    Why in the News?

    The removal of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 has raised concerns about violence against Hindus in Bangladesh. Religious minorities in South Asia, especially India and Pakistan, are facing increasing challenges that have worsened since Partition.

    What are the key factors contributing to the decline in the status of religious minorities in South Asia since Partition?

    • Majoritarian Nationalism & Religious Extremism: Rise of Hindutva politics in India, Islamization of laws in Pakistan, and political Islamization in Bangladesh have led to exclusionary policies and attacks on minorities. Eg:  Pakistan’s blasphemy laws disproportionately target Christians, Hindus, and Ahmadis, often leading to mob violence.
    • Communal Violence & Targeted Persecution: Repeated riots, lynchings, and attacks on places of worship have created fear and displacement among minorities. Eg: The 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War saw mass violence against Hindus; attacks on Hindus during Durga Puja 2021 in Bangladesh highlight continued persecution.
    • Legal & Institutional Discrimination: Laws and policies systematically disadvantage minorities, restricting their rights to education, property, and political participation. Eg: India’s Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), 2019, excludes Muslims from fast-track citizenship; Pakistan’s separate electorate system (before 2002) marginalized minorities.
    • Political Instability & State Apathy: Changing political dynamics often leave minorities vulnerable to state inaction or deliberate neglect.Eg: The deposition of Sheikh Hasina in 2024 has led to increased violence against Hindus in Bangladesh, reflecting the role of political shifts in minority safety.
    • Cross-Border Tensions & Geopolitical Factors: Tensions between India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh over religious issues fuel polarization and hostility towards minorities. Eg: 1992 Babri Masjid demolition in India led to retaliatory violence against Hindus in Pakistan and Bangladesh, worsening interfaith relations.

    How did the Nehru-Liaquat Ali Pact aim to address minority concerns?

    • Protection of Minority Rights: The pact, signed in 1950, aimed to safeguard the rights of religious minorities in India and Pakistan, ensuring security, freedom of movement, and non-discrimination. Eg: It assured that minorities in both countries could practice their religion freely without fear of persecution.
    • Creation of Minority Commissions & Legal Safeguards: Both nations agreed to set up Minority Commissions to address grievances and ensure the implementation of protective measures. Eg: The pact led to the establishment of a Branch Secretariat of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) in Calcutta to monitor the situation.
    • Prevention of Forced Migration & Refugee Crisis Management: The pact sought to reduce communal tensions and prevent forced migration by ensuring the safety of minorities in both countries. Eg: It aimed to halt mass population exchanges, which were being considered by leaders like Sardar Patel in response to escalating refugee crises.

    What were its limitations?

    • Failure to Prevent Long-Term Religious Persecution: Despite assurances, violence against religious minorities continued in both India and Pakistan, undermining the pact’s effectiveness. Eg: Large-scale anti-Hindu riots in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) in 1950 and later events like the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War led to mass Hindu migration to India.
    • Lack of Strong Enforcement Mechanisms: The pact lacked binding enforcement mechanisms, relying on political goodwill rather than legal obligations, making it difficult to sustain over time. Eg: The Minority Commissions proposed under the pact had limited authority, leading to weak implementation and minimal impact on ground realities.

    What are the implications of political developments in Bangladesh on India-Bangladesh relations?

    • Increased Strain Due to Minority Persecution: Rising violence against Hindus in Bangladesh creates diplomatic tensions, as India sees itself as a protector of South Asian Hindus. Eg: Attacks on Hindu temples and communities after Sheikh Hasina’s deposition in 2024 have led to concerns in India about the safety of minorities.
    • Security Concerns & Border Management: Political instability in Bangladesh can lead to illegal migration, cross-border insurgency, and smuggling, affecting India’s internal security. Eg: India has strengthened border security along the India-Bangladesh border to curb illegal immigration and Rohingya refugee movements.

    How can South Asian nations develop a more inclusive framework to protect religious minorities and promote regional stability? (Way forward)

    • ​​Strengthen Legal & Institutional Safeguards: Implement strict anti-discrimination laws and establish independent minority rights commissions to monitor violations. Eg: India’s National Commission for Minorities (NCM) works to safeguard minority rights, but a regional body could ensure cross-border protection.
    • Promote Regional Cooperation & Crisis Response: Develop joint mechanisms for refugee protection, minority safety, and early conflict resolution. Eg: The SAARC framework could be expanded to include a South Asian Minority Rights Charter, ensuring accountability.
    • Ensure Socio-Economic Inclusion: Invest in education, employment, and political participation programs for minority communities. Eg: Bangladesh’s Ashrayan Project provides housing to marginalized groups, a model that can be scaled regionally.

    Mains PYQ:

    Question: The protests in Shahbag Square in Dhaka in Bangladesh reveal a fundamental split in society between the nationalists and Islamic forces. What is its significance for India? [UPSC 2013]

    Linkage: The significant socio-political event in Bangladesh and asks about its implications for India. The underlying tensions between nationalist and religious forces, are crucial for understanding the context of minority issues in Bangladesh.

  • 50th Anniversary of Biological Weapons Convention (BWC)

    Why in the News?

    March 26, 2025, marked the 50th anniversary of the entry into force of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), the first multilateral disarmament treaty to ban an entire category of weapons of mass destruction.

    About the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC)

    • The BWC also known as the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC), is a disarmament treaty aimed at banning biological and toxin weapons.
    • It prohibits activities related to the development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpiling, and use of biological and toxin weapons.

    Negotiation and Adoption of BWC: 

    • Negotiated in Geneva, Switzerland, from 1969 to 1971.
    • Draft versions were tabled by the USA and USSR in August 1971.
    • The treaty was opened for signature on April 10, 1972, in London, Moscow, and Washington, D.C.
    • It entered into force on March 26, 1975, after the required ratifications.

    Key Provisions of BWC:

    • Article I: Prohibits development, production, stockpiling, and use of biological weapons.
    • Article II: Requires destruction or conversion of biological agents, toxins, and weapons to peaceful purposes before joining.
    • Article III: Prohibits transfer or assistance in acquiring biological weapons.
    • Article VI: Allows states to file complaints with the UN Security Council about treaty violations.
    • Article X: Promotes the exchange of materials and information for peaceful purposes.

    Structure and Membership of BWC:

    • Depositaries: United States, United Kingdom, and Russian Federation are the depositary governments.
    • Membership: As of February 2025, 188 states are parties to the treaty, with 4 states having signed but not ratified, and 9 states have neither signed nor ratified.
    • Review Conferences: Held every 5 years to assess the treaty’s implementation and strengthen confidence-building measures.

    India and the BWC:

    • India is a party to the BWC.
    • India has implemented national measures and established legal frameworks to comply with the provisions of the BWC, preventing the development or use of biological weapons.
    [UPSC 2017] With reference to the Biological Weapons Convention, consider the following statements:

    1.It prohibits the development, production, stockpiling or use of biological and toxin weapons.

    2. It has a verification mechanism to check compliance by member States.

    3. It is an umbrella treaty under the aegis of the United Nations.

    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

    (a) 1 only (b) 2 and 3 only (c) 1 and 3 only (d) 1, 2 and 3

     

  • China-India ties across the past and into the future

    Why in the News?

    On April 1, China and India celebrated 75 years of diplomatic relations. Despite some challenges, their bond has kept growing, just like the Yangtze and Ganges rivers.

    What are the key factors that have influenced China-India relations over the past 75 years?

    • Strategic Leadership & Diplomatic Initiatives: Leaders have played a pivotal role in shaping ties at critical junctures. Example: In 1950, Nehru and Mao established diplomatic relations, and in 1988, Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to China helped normalize relations after the 1962 war.
    • Border Disputes & Security Concerns: The unresolved boundary issue has been a major friction point. Example: The 1962 India-China War and recent tensions in Ladakh (Galwan clash, 2020) highlight ongoing territorial disputes.
    • Economic Engagement & Trade Relations: Bilateral trade has expanded significantly, despite political tensions. Example: Trade increased from under $3 billion in 2000 to $138.5 billion in 2024, making China India’s largest trading partner.
    • Multilateral Cooperation & Global Governance: Both nations collaborate in international forums but also compete for regional influence. Example: India and China work together in BRICS, SCO, and G-20 but differ in strategies for regional dominance (e.g., Indo-Pacific and BRI).
    • Cultural & People-to-People Ties: Historical and civilizational ties continue to foster mutual understanding. Example: The influence of scholars like Rabindranath Tagore and the contribution of Dr. Kotnis in China during WWII symbolize enduring cultural bonds.

    How have the leaders of China and India guided their bilateral relations during critical historical junctures?

    • Establishment of Diplomatic Ties (1950): Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Chairman Mao Zedong formalized relations, making India the first non-socialist country to recognize the People’s Republic of China.
    • Normalization Post-1962 War (1988): Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to China marked a turning point, leading to agreements on peace and cooperation, setting the stage for improved ties.
    • Economic & Strategic Engagement (2003-2013): Under Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Hu Jintao, India recognized Tibet as part of China, and China acknowledged Sikkim as part of India, fostering trade and diplomatic ties.
    • Informal Summits for Stability (2018-2019): Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping held informal summits in Wuhan (2018) and Mamallapuram (2019) to ease tensions and enhance strategic trust.
    • Crisis Management & Recent Diplomatic Talks (2023-2024): Amid border tensions, diplomatic channels, such as the Special Representatives’ talks and Foreign Minister-level dialogues helped maintain stability and explore solutions.

    How can China and India promote a multipolar world and protect developing countries’ interests?

    • Strengthening Multilateral Organizations: Both nations actively contribute to BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and the G-20 to ensure developing countries have a greater voice in global governance.
    • Advocating for Fair Trade and Economic Policies: They push for reforms in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) to make global trade and financial systems more inclusive and equitable.
    • Enhancing South-South Cooperation: Initiatives like China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and India’s Development Partnership Administration (DPA) can support infrastructure, healthcare, and education in Africa, Latin America, and Asia.
    • Promoting an Inclusive Global Order: China and India have called for United Nations (UN) Security Council reforms to give more representation to emerging economies, ensuring a balanced global power structure.
    • Joint Climate and Sustainable Development InitiativesThey collaborate in forums like the International Solar Alliance (ISA) and advocate for climate justice, ensuring fair access to green technology and funding for developing nations.

    What steps can China and India take to strengthen their bilateral economic and trade cooperation? (Way forward)

    • Enhancing Trade Facilitation and Reducing Barriers: Both nations can work towards reducing tariffs and non-tariff barriers to improve market access. Example: Streamlining customs procedures and regulatory harmonization can facilitate smoother trade in key sectors like pharmaceuticals, electronics, and textiles.
    • Boosting Investments and Joint Ventures: Encouraging mutual investments in infrastructure, manufacturing, and technology sectors to foster economic interdependence. Example: China’s investment in India’s mobile phone sector (e.g., Xiaomi and Oppo factories in India) can be expanded to other industries like renewable energy and automobile manufacturing.
    • Strengthening Supply Chain Resilience: Both countries can collaborate to create diversified supply chains and reduce overdependence on Western markets. Example: Joint production and R&D in semiconductor manufacturing to reduce dependency on third-party nations.
    • Promoting Digital and Financial Cooperation: Expanding digital economy collaboration, including fintech, e-commerce, and AI-driven solutions. Example: Enabling regulated entry of Indian fintech firms into China’s market and vice versa, similar to how Chinese tech firms like Alibaba and Tencent have invested in Indian startups.
    • Expanding Multilateral and Regional Cooperation: Strengthening collaboration in platforms like BRICS, SCO, and RCEP to enhance economic integration. Example: Coordinating policies on global trade issues like WTO reforms, climate finance, and digital trade governance to promote shared economic interests.

    Mains question for practice:

    Question: ‘Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)’ is transforming itself into a trade bloc from a military alliance, in present times – Discuss. [UPSC 2020]

    Linkage: Quad, a strategic dialogue involving India, the US, Japan, and Australia, which is widely seen as a counter to China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. Understanding the Quad’s evolving nature is crucial for analyzing India’s strategic choices in relation to China.

  • India’s geopolitical vision should be larger

    Why in the News?

    Earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin thanked leaders, including PM of India, for helping to end the Ukraine- Russia war. This was appreciated in India, but it raises a key question—why doesn’t India engage more in global conflict resolution?

    Why has India refrained from playing a more active political role in global conflicts despite its past interventions in regional crises?

    • Focus on Economic Growth: India has prioritized economic development over geopolitical interventions to strengthen its position as the world’s fifth-largest economy. Example: Since the early 2000s, India has focused on domestic growth and international trade rather than direct involvement in conflicts like the Syrian civil war.
    • Risk of Straining Bilateral Relations: Engaging in conflicts could upset key diplomatic partnerships and economic ties with different nations. Example: India has refrained from directly criticizing Russia over the Ukraine war to maintain strong trade relations, especially in energy and defense.
    • Multi-Alignment Strategy over Direct Intervention: India prefers to maintain balanced relations with global powers rather than taking sides in conflicts. Example: During the Israel-Gaza crisis, India condemned terrorism but avoided taking an active role in mediation.
    • Regional Conflicts Best Handled by Key Players: India often views conflicts as better managed by regional stakeholders or major global powers. Example: In West Asia, India has significant economic interests but does not intervene like Turkey or Saudi Arabia in conflicts such as the Yemen civil war.
    • Avoiding Overstretching Diplomatic and Military Resources: Actively engaging in multiple conflicts could strain India’s diplomatic bandwidth and military capacity. Example: While India plays a crucial role in Indo-Pacific security (e.g., QUAD), it has avoided direct involvement in conflicts like the South China Sea dispute.

    What are the key reasons behind India’s geopolitical reticence, and how do they impact its global ambitions?

    • Economic Prioritization Over Geopolitical Involvement: India has focused on economic growth, infrastructure development, and poverty reduction rather than engaging in global conflicts. This has strengthened India’s economy but has limited its influence in global strategic affairs. Example: India avoided a major role in the Ukraine-Russia war to protect trade and energy interests.
    • Balancing Strategic Partnerships: India follows a multi-alignment policy, maintaining good relations with diverse global powers. This ensures economic and diplomatic stability but restricts India from taking firm stances on contentious global issues. Example: India has strong ties with both the U.S. and Russia, leading to neutral stances in conflicts like Ukraine.
    • Reluctance to Meddle in Complex Regional Conflicts: India prefers not to intervene in regions where dominant players (e.g., U.S., China, EU) have vested interests. This often makes India appear as a passive actor rather than a decisive global leader. Example: India refrained from mediating in the Israel-Palestine conflict, unlike Qatar and Turkey.
    • Lack of Institutional Mechanisms for Conflict Mediation: India does not have a formal diplomatic framework for mediation in global conflicts. This limits India’s credibility as a conflict-resolution leader despite its historical role in peacekeeping. Example: Unlike Norway’s role in the Sri Lanka peace process, India avoided direct mediation post-2009.
    • Fear of Strategic Overstretch and Retaliation: Actively engaging in conflicts could lead to economic sanctions, diplomatic backlash, or military confrontations. This cautious approach preserves internal stability but weakens India’s claim for a UNSC permanent seat and a stronger global role. Example: India has not taken a proactive role in Afghanistan’s political transition to avoid provoking regional powers like China and Pakistan.

    Which countries or regions are currently filling the space left by India’s limited involvement in international conflict mediation?

    • China – Expanding Diplomatic and Strategic Mediation: China has positioned itself as a key mediator in conflicts, using economic influence and strategic partnerships. Example: In 2023, China brokered a historic diplomatic agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, reducing tensions in the Middle East.
    • Turkey and Qatar – Active Engagement in Regional Conflicts: These countries have taken up mediation roles, particularly in the Middle East and Afghanistan, leveraging their geopolitical positions and relationships with conflicting parties. Example: Qatar facilitated negotiations between the U.S. and the Taliban, leading to the 2020 U.S.-Taliban peace deal.
    • European Union – Diplomatic Initiatives and Soft Power: The EU engages in conflict resolution through diplomatic channels, economic incentives, and humanitarian aid. Example: The EU has played a mediatory role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, facilitating peace talks and ceasefire agreements.

    Way forward: 

    • Develop Institutional Frameworks for Mediation and Peacebuilding: Establish specialized diplomatic institutions focused on conflict resolution, leveraging India’s experience in UN peacekeeping and historical ties with developing nations. Example: Creating an “India Peace Mediation Initiative” under the Ministry of External Affairs to offer diplomatic and humanitarian support in global conflicts.
    • Strengthen Strategic and Economic Diplomacy for Conflict Prevention: Enhance regional cooperation through trade, infrastructure projects, and multilateral platforms like BRICS and the G20 to prevent conflicts at their roots. Example: Expanding India’s diplomatic role in West Asia and Africa through economic investments and diplomatic engagement to foster long-term stability.

    Mains question for practice:

    Question: The West is fostering India as an alternative to reduce dependence on China’s supply chain and as a strategic ally to counter China’s political and economic dominance.’ Explain this statement with examples. [UPSC 2024]

    Linkage: India’s potential role in the global balance of power and how external actors perceive India’s strategic significance in countering a major global power is an important theme. A larger geopolitical vision for India would involve strategically navigating such external expectations and leveraging its position to advance its own interests.