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Subject: Bilateral Relations

1. Major World Events
2. India’s Interests in neighbourhood
3. Effects of our Policies

  • [20th May 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Understanding India’s relationship with Turkey and Azerbaijan

    PYQ Relevance:

    [UPSC 2013] ‘The expansion and strengthening of NATO and a stronger US-Europe strategic partnership works well in India.’ What is your opinion about this statement? Give reasons and examples to support your answer.

    Linkage: Turkiye is a NATO member, and its foreign policy decisions (like supporting Pakistan or Azerbaijan) are influenced by its position within such alliances, which in turn affects India’s relationships and interests in the region.

     

    Mentor’s Comment: India, Turkey, and Azerbaijan entered into diplomatic tensions after Turkey and Azerbaijan openly supported Pakistan following the Pahalgam massacre. This support sparked a sharp rise in regional political conflicts and strong public reactions. Social media anger quickly escalated, prompting top Indian institutions to pause agreements and causing many travelers to cancel trips to Turkey and Azerbaijan, as reported by travel websites.

    Today’s editorial explains the diplomatic tensions between India, Turkey, and Azerbaijan and their implications. This topic will be included in GS Paper I (Unity in Society) and GS Paper II (International Relations).

    _

    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    Data shows that even if India officially bans trade with Azerbaijan and Turkey, it is likely to experience minimal losses due to limited economic dependence on these countries.

    What triggered the boycott of Turkiye and Azerbaijan in India?

    • Support for Pakistan: Turkiye and Azerbaijan backed Pakistan following India’s military confrontation after the Pahalgam massacre, which angered many Indians.
    • Social media-driven calls for boycott: The support sparked calls on social media to boycott both countries, leading to a surge in travel cancellations. Eg: Sharp spike in cancellations of tour bookings to Turkiye and Azerbaijan reported by travel platforms.
    • Institutional actions: Indian institutions suspended ties, and trader associations resolved to boycott trade and commercial ties with these countries. Eg: IIT Bombay and IIT Roorkee suspended MoUs with Turkish universities.

    Why do Azerbaijan and Turkey oppose India? 

    • Support for Pakistan in the Kashmir conflict: Historically, Turkiye has aligned with Pakistan on the Kashmir issue, opposing India’s sovereignty over the region. Eg: Turkiye’s consistent diplomatic backing of Pakistan’s claims on Kashmir since the partition of India in 1947.
    • Azerbaijan’s conflict with Armenia: India has historically supplied arms and support to Armenia, Azerbaijan’s adversary in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, creating tensions with Azerbaijan. Eg: India’s provision of surface-to-air missile systems to Armenia, opposing Azerbaijan’s territorial claims.

    How have arms trade relations evolved between Turkiye and Pakistan?

    • Long-term arms exports since the 1990s: Turkiye has been supplying arms to Pakistan continuously for over three decades. Eg: SIPRI data shows arms exports from Turkiye to Pakistan starting in the 1990s.
    • Major focus on artillery systems: A significant part of the trade involves artillery like naval guns, howitzers, self-propelled guns, and multiple rocket launchers. Eg: Pakistan has received multiple rocket launchers and howitzers from Turkiye.
    • Supply of armored vehicles: Turkiye exports tanks, armored cars, and personnel carriers to Pakistan’s military. Eg: Delivery of armored vehicles strengthens Pakistan’s ground forces.
    • Mutual strategic and political support: Arms trade is supported by reciprocal backing in geopolitical issues such as Kashmir and Cyprus. Eg: Turkiye supports Pakistan on Kashmir; Pakistan supports Turkiye on Cyprus disputes.
    • Strengthened ties during regional conflicts: The relationship deepened as Turkiye provided diplomatic and military backing to Pakistan in various geopolitical standoffs. Eg: Turkiye’s vocal support for Pakistan during Kashmir-related tensions.

    Who stands to lose more economically if trade is banned?

    • India’s low dependency on crude oil: The combined share of crude oil imports from these two countries is less than 1% of India’s total crude imports. Eg: Charts show less than 1% crude import share over the past six years.
    • Azerbaijan’s significant reliance on India: India was Azerbaijan’s third largest destination for crude oil exports in 2023. Eg: Azerbaijan could face a bigger impact if India bans trade.

    • Limited trade volume in machinery: Turkiye accounts for only about 1% of India’s total imports in machinery, including nuclear reactors and boilers. Eg: India relies more on countries like China and Germany for such equipment.

    • India’s diversified import sources: India’s major imports come from several other countries, making it less vulnerable to a ban on trade with Turkiye and Azerbaijan. Eg: China and Germany are larger suppliers of machinery than Turkiye.
    • Greater economic impact likely on Azerbaijan: Azerbaijan stands to lose more from India’s trade ban because India is a major crude oil buyer for them. Eg: India being the third largest market for Azerbaijan’s crude oil exports highlights this dependence.

    Where has there been a notable rise in Indian tourism and student migration recently?

    Indian tourism

    • Significant increase in Indian tourists to Turkey: In 2024, about 330,000 Indian tourists visited Turkey, marking a 20.7% increase from the previous year. This growth was due to better air connectivity and Turkey’s appeal as a budget-friendly European destination.
    • Rapid growth of Indian tourists in Azerbaijan: Indian tourist arrivals in Azerbaijan jumped from around 60,700 in 2022 to over 243,000 in 2024, fueled by affordability and rich cultural heritage.

     Student migration

    • Increase in Indian students in Turkey: Indian student numbers in Turkey have grown from less than 100 in 2017 to several hundreds by 2024, attracted by diverse programs and competitive costs.
    • Rising Indian student in Azerbaijan: The number of Indian students in Azerbaijan also increased significantly, supported by institutions like Türkiye-Azerbaijan University established in 2024.

    Note: This 2024 data is from before Operation Sindoor. The real effects on tourism and student migration will be seen later because it takes time for such events to show their impact. 

    Way forward: 

    • Promote diplomatic dialogue: India should engage in sustained diplomatic efforts with Turkiye and Azerbaijan to address mutual concerns and reduce geopolitical tensions.
    • Expand people-to-people and economic ties: Enhancing cultural exchanges, trade, and educational cooperation can build trust and diversify relations beyond political differences.

  • Why Northeast-Kolkata link via Myanmar — not Bangladesh — is significant

    Why in the News?

    Recently, the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) has approved a 166.8-km four-lane highway from Shillong to Silchar. This highway will later be extended to Zorinpui in Mizoram and will link the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMMTTP) with a fast road network running through the center of Northeast India.

    What is the Kaladan project’s role in Northeast India’s connectivity?

    • The Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMMTTP) offers a strategic alternative to the narrow and vulnerable Siliguri Corridor (“Chicken’s Neck”), currently the only land route connecting the Northeast to the rest of India. Eg: Direct Kolkata–Mizoram route via Myanmar.
    • The project significantly shortens the transport distance (by around 1,000 km) and time (3–4 days), facilitating faster movement of goods and people, and promoting trade and investment in the resource-rich but infrastructure-poor Northeast.  

    Why have India-Bangladesh ties worsened recently?

    • Political Shift and Leadership Change: The ousting of pro-India Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 disrupted longstanding bilateral ties. Her party, the Awami League, was subsequently banned by the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, raising concerns in India about democratic processes and political inclusivity.
    • Strained Diplomatic Exchanges: Interim leader Muhammad Yunus made statements perceived as antagonistic by India, such as referring to Northeast India as “landlocked” and suggesting Bangladesh as the “only guardian of the ocean.” These remarks, especially during his visit to China, were viewed by India as a shift towards a more China-aligned stance, causing diplomatic unease.
    • Trade Restrictions and Economic Tensions: In response to Bangladesh’s interim government’s approach, India imposed restrictions on Bangladeshi exports to its Northeast region.

    Why has the Kaladan project been delayed?

    • Security Concerns: Ongoing civil unrest in Myanmar, especially in Rakhine State, has disrupted construction and posed risks to workers. Eg: In 2024, the Arakan Army seized Paletwa, making the area unsafe for project activities.
    • Incomplete Infrastructure: Critical segments of the project, especially the road link from Paletwa to Zorinpui, remain unfinished. Eg: The 109 km road stretch needed to connect the waterway to the Indian border is still under construction.
    • Operational Hurdles: Difficult terrain, weak contractor coordination, and reliance on local sub-contracting have caused delays. Eg: Despite awarding the contract to IRCON in 2022, progress has been slow due to logistical difficulties.

    How does the new Shillong-Silchar-Zorinpui highway enhance the connectivity of the Kaladan project?

    • Strategic Redundancy: The highway provides an alternative route to the vulnerable Siliguri Corridor, ensuring uninterrupted access to the Northeast. Eg: In response to Bangladesh’s “landlocked” remark, India approved the ₹22,864 crore Shillong–Silchar highway to bypass Bangladesh.
    • Integrated Multi-Modal Link: It seamlessly connects to the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, facilitating efficient cargo movement between Kolkata and the Northeast. Eg: The Shillong–Silchar highway acts as a continuation of the Kaladan project, linking the Northeast to Kolkata via Myanmar.
    • Economic Development: Enhanced connectivity boosts trade, tourism, and economic activities in the Northeast region. Eg: The new corridor is expected to spur economic development by improving road connectivity and reducing travel time.
    • Reduced Transit Time: The highway shortens travel time between key cities, facilitating faster movement of goods and people. Eg: The 166.8 km highway will cut travel time between Shillong and Silchar from 8.5 hours to 5 hours.

    Way forward: 

    • Strengthen Security and Coordination: Enhance cooperation with Myanmar and local stakeholders to ensure safe and timely completion of the Kaladan project’s remaining sections, addressing security challenges in Rakhine State.
    • Expand Infrastructure Integration: Accelerate development of connecting highways and transport networks in Northeast India to fully leverage the Kaladan corridor for economic growth and strategic resilience.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2013] The protests in Shahbag Square in Dhaka in Bangladesh reveal a fundamental split in society between the nationalists and Islamic forces. What is its significance for India?

    Linkage: The political and social changes happening inside Bangladesh are important for India to understand, because they can affect India’s security and ties with its neighbour. Recently, Bangladesh’s  sentiments (like cut the “Chicken’s Neck” of India) have raised concerns for India, especially around the narrow “Chicken’s Neck” – the only land link between mainland India and the Northeast. That’s why the Kaladan project is very important. It will give the Northeast a direct link to the Bay of Bengal, reducing dependence on Bangladesh.

  • Terror, treaties, and civilisations: Indus through the centuries

    Why in the News?

    On April 22, a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, killed 26 civilians. In response, the Indian government took several diplomatic steps, including suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).

    Why is the Indus Waters Treaty crucial for India-Pakistan ties?

    • Framework for Water Sharing: The IWT provides a clear, legally binding agreement on how the Indus River and its tributaries are shared, reducing the risk of water conflicts between India and Pakistan. Eg: India controls the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), while Pakistan manages the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab), helping avoid disputes over water access.
    • Endurance Amid Political Tensions: Despite wars and terrorist attacks (e.g., 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2019 Pulwama attack), the treaty has endured for over six decades, maintaining a vital channel of cooperation between two hostile neighbors. Eg: Even after the 2019 Pulwama terror attack, the treaty remained a key framework for managing shared water resources.
    • Diplomatic Leverage and Stability: The treaty serves as a strategic tool in diplomatic relations, with India occasionally using it as leverage while ensuring continued water flow, preventing escalation into broader conflict. Eg: After the 2023 Pahalgam attack, India announced suspension of some treaty provisions as a diplomatic response.

    How does climate change affect the Indus Basin?

    • Glacial Melt and Water Flow Variability: The Indus Basin depends heavily on glacier-fed rivers, with about 80% of water coming from glacial melt. Climate change accelerates glacier melting, causing short-term floods and long-term water shortages during dry seasons.
    • Rising Water Demand and Scarcity: Growing population and agricultural needs increase pressure on limited water resources, worsening water scarcity in the basin, especially in Pakistan, where water availability has dropped below critical levels. Eg: Irrigation losses in Pakistan exceed 50% in some areas, threatening food security.
    • Impact on Agriculture and Livelihoods: Reduced and unpredictable water flow due to climate change affects crop yields and fisheries, destabilizing rural economies dependent on the Indus Basin.

    How did colonial irrigation projects influence post-independence water disputes?

    • Extensive Canal Systems Built by British: The British developed large canal networks for irrigation, creating shared water infrastructure across regions. Eg: The 1915 Triple Canal Project linked major tributaries, affecting river flows between future India and Pakistan.
    • Altered Natural River Flow: British dams and barrages controlled floods and irrigation but changed river courses, leading to downstream access issues. Eg: Barrages on the Indus and its tributaries shifted water availability patterns.
    • No Formal Water Sharing Post-Partition: At independence, India and Pakistan inherited interconnected irrigation but lacked agreements on water distribution. Eg: This led to conflicts over the use of eastern and western rivers after 1947.
    • Regional Water Imbalances: Colonial irrigation prioritized certain areas, creating uneven water distribution that fueled disputes. Eg: Punjab’s canal systems served both countries but became points of contention.

    What lessons can India draw from other river treaties? (Way forward)

    • Promote Cooperative Water Management: Successful treaties often emphasize joint management and data sharing to build trust and avoid conflicts. Eg: The Mekong River Commission involves multiple countries collaborating on water usage and flood control.
    • Include Climate Change Adaptation: Modern treaties factor in environmental changes and sustainable usage to address future water challenges. Eg: The Nile Basin Initiative incorporates climate resilience strategies for water-sharing among East African nations.
    • Establish Dispute Resolution Mechanisms: Effective treaties have clear, impartial conflict resolution processes to handle disagreements peacefully. Eg: The Danube River Protection Convention includes mechanisms for arbitration and mediation among European countries.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2020] In what way have the science-based technologies triggered off striking changes in agriculture?

    Linkage: Genome editing is a science-based technology that represents a significant advancement capable of triggering changes in agriculture by developing improved crop varieties.

  • Caution and optimism: On India’s FTA with the United Kingdom

    Why in the News?

    India and the United Kingdom have signed a landmark Free Trade Agreement (FTA), under which 99% of Indian exports to the U.K. will have no import duties, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced on Tuesday.

    Free Trade Agreement

    What are the key benefits for India under the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the United Kingdom?

    • Zero-Duty Access for 99% of Indian Exports: This significantly enhances India’s export competitiveness in the U.K. market. Eg: Indian gems and jewellery, apparel, and engineering goods will enter the U.K. without customs duties, making them more attractive to British buyers.
    • Social Security Relief for Indian Workers in the U.K: Indian professionals and their employers will be exempt from social security contributions for up to 3 years. Eg: Indian IT professionals on temporary assignments in the U.K. will take home higher net salaries, encouraging Indian firms to send more workers abroad.
    • Boost to Services Trade and Investment Flows: The FTA facilitates easier movement of professionals and investors, promoting service sector growth and foreign direct investment (FDI). Eg: Indian consultancy firms or startups may find it easier to operate or invest in the U.K., supporting India’s goal of becoming a services export hub.

    Who are the major Indian stakeholders expressing optimism about the FTA with the U.K., and why?

    • Engineering Goods Sector: Expects a significant boost in exports due to reduced or zero tariffs. Eg: The Engineering Export Promotion Council (EEPC) projects engineering exports to the U.K. to nearly double to $7.55 billion by 2029-30.
    • Apparel and Textile Industry: Gains price competitiveness in the U.K. market through zero-duty access. Eg: Indian garments become more competitive against Bangladeshi or Vietnamese exports, enhancing market share in Europe.
    • Gems and Jewellery Sector: Welcomes duty-free access for high-value products, boosting profitability. Eg: Indian jewellers can export gold and diamond jewellery to the U.K. with lower cost structures.
    • Information Technology (IT) and Professional Services: Benefits from easier mobility and recognition of qualifications for professionals. Eg: Indian IT firms can deploy professionals to the U.K. more efficiently, with less visa friction.
    • Indian Employers of Workers in the U.K: Gain from exemption from social security contributions for Indian workers temporarily in the U.K. Eg: Firms hiring Indian talent in the U.K. will save on mandatory contributions for 3 years, reducing costs and encouraging cross-border placements.

    Why are Indian farmer organisations opposing the India-U.K. FTA?

    • Threat from Imported Agricultural Products: Reduced tariffs on U.K. agri-exports like lamb, salmon, and dairy products may hurt Indian farmers. Eg: Cheaper U.K. lamb and salmon could enter the Indian market, undercutting local producers who already operate on thin margins.
    • Concerns Over Low-Income, Low-Margin Conditions: Indian farmers fear intensified competition could worsen their already precarious economic situation. Eg: Many Indian farmers rely on traditional and small-scale farming, which cannot compete with heavily subsidised U.K. agriculture.
    • Lack of Protective Mechanisms: The FTA lacks clear safeguards to protect Indian farmers from market shocks due to sudden import surges. Eg: No countervailing duties or quotas have been announced to cushion farmers from a flood of imported agri-goods.

    How could the India-U.K. FTA influence future trade agreements with the European Union and the United States?

    • Establishing a Negotiation Template: The India-U.K. FTA may serve as a reference framework for structuring future trade deals. Eg: If India agrees to liberalise tariffs on 85% of imports from the U.K., similar expectations may arise in talks with the EU and U.S..
    • Precedent for Sensitive Sector Concessions: Concessions on agricultural and alcohol imports set a precedent for market access in sensitive sectors. Eg: The cut in whiskey and gin tariffs for the U.K. may lead to similar demands from U.S. bourbon producers or EU wine exporters.
    • Pressure on Domestic Manufacturing and Policy: As India lowers duties and opens its markets, pressure may grow on its industrial and trade policy in upcoming FTAs. Eg: With less than 2% share in global exports, India’s manufacturing sector could be exposed if future FTAs follow the U.K. model without strong support policies.

    Way forward: 

    • Safeguard Vulnerable Sectors: Introduce protective clauses such as trigger safeguards, quotas, or phased liberalisation to shield Indian farmers and MSMEs from import surges. Eg: Gradual tariff cuts with review mechanisms for sensitive agri-products.
    • Strengthen Domestic Competitiveness: Enhance manufacturing capacity, R&D incentives, and export infrastructure to fully capitalise on new market access. Eg: Support engineering and textile sectors with technology upgradation and logistics hubs.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2024] The West is fostering India as an alternative to reduce dependence on China’s supply chain and as a strategic ally to counter China’s political and economic dominance.’ Explain this statement with examples.

    Linkage: The India-UK FTA, and its potential use as a template for agreements with the EU and the US mentioned in article, can be viewed within the broader context of strengthening India’s economic and strategic ties with Western countries. This PYQ explores the reasons behind such partnerships, which provides a geopolitical backdrop to India’s trade negotiations with the UK and other Western nations.

  • The building blocks of an India-U.S. energy future

    Why in the News?

    U.S. Vice-President J.D. Vance recently mentioned that the U.S. is ready to work more closely with India on energy and defense.

    What are the main areas of India-U.S. cooperation?

    • Energy Security: Strengthening access to sustainable, reliable, and affordable energy resources is central to India-U.S. ties. Eg: In 2024, both countries signed an MoU to diversify supply chains for critical minerals like lithium and rare earths, crucial for clean energy and EV technologies.
    • Defence and Technology Cooperation: Enhancing strategic and technological collaboration helps address common security challenges and promote innovation. Eg: Under the iCET framework, India and the U.S. are collaborating on defence co-production and advanced systems, including Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) for civilian nuclear use.
    • Mobility and Innovation Exchange: Facilitating people-to-people ties and high-tech partnerships boosts economic growth and shared innovation ecosystems. Eg: India and the U.S. are working to ease skilled labor mobility and co-develop innovation corridors in areas like semiconductors and AI.

    Why is a minerals partnership vital for both countries?

    • Strategic Resource Security: Critical minerals are essential for clean energy, electronics, and defence, and current supply chains are overly dependent on China. Eg: China controls nearly 90% of global rare earth processing, creating a strategic vulnerability for both India and the U.S.
    • Economic and Technological Collaboration: Joint exploration and processing of minerals supports cross-sector innovation and economic resilience. Eg: India and the U.S. signed an MoU in 2024 to co-invest in third-country mineral projects in Africa and South America.
    • Supply Chain Diversification: A minerals partnership helps build resilient, transparent, and traceable supply chains to withstand geopolitical shocks. Eg: Proposal for an India-U.S. Mineral Exchange and blockchain-based traceability standards to ensure secure mineral sourcing.

    How can nuclear energy help India meet its energy goals?

    • Low-Carbon Energy Source: Nuclear energy provides a firm, low-emission alternative to fossil fuels, aiding in decarbonisation efforts. Eg: Nuclear power contributes just over 8 GW currently but is crucial for India’s net-zero by 2070 targets.
    • Base Load Power Stability: It ensures continuous electricity supply, complementing the intermittency of solar and wind sources. Eg: Nuclear plants provide uninterrupted power, stabilising the grid as renewable sources fluctuate.
    • High Energy Output with Small Land Use: Nuclear energy offers high output per unit of land, which is vital in land-scarce regions. Eg: Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) have lower land requirements and are suitable for water-scarce areas due to air-cooling.
    • Industrial Decarbonisation Support: Nuclear power can drive clean energy transitions in sectors like steel and AI-based data centres. Eg: SMRs can power green steel manufacturing and meet rising energy needs of AI infrastructure.
    • Strategic Energy Independence: Reducing reliance on fossil fuel imports enhances national energy security. Eg: With a 100 GW nuclear target by 2047, India aims to lower its dependence on imported oil and coal.

    Which reforms are key to expanding India’s nuclear capacity?

    • Faster Deployment and Standardisation: Accelerate construction timelines and adopt standardized reactor designs to lower costs and ensure quick scaling of nuclear energy capacity. Eg: Reducing construction time from 9 to 6 years could reduce electricity costs by 8%, helping India meet its 2047 nuclear capacity goal.
    • Private Sector Involvement: Facilitate private investments by providing clear incentives and long-term purchase commitments, especially for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Eg: SMRs, with lower capital expenditure and land requirements, become financially viable when supported by private capital and stable offtake agreements.
    • Legislative and Policy Reforms: Amend existing laws to encourage private investment in nuclear energy and enhance the ease of doing business in this sector. Eg: Amending the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act, 2010, would allow private companies to participate in nuclear projects, boosting investment and technological growth.

    What are the steps taken by the Indian government? 

    • Expansion of Nuclear Power Infrastructure: The government has set a target to achieve 100 GW of nuclear power by 2047, and is working on commissioning new plants to achieve this, including collaborations with international partners. Eg: The Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant and new reactors under construction are key initiatives to expand nuclear capacity.
    • Regulatory and Policy Reforms: India has been reforming nuclear energy laws, including the amendment of the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act, to attract private sector participation and investment in nuclear projects. Eg: The approval for the transfer of Small Modular Reactor (SMR) technology by Holtec International to Indian companies.
    • International Collaborations and Technology Transfer: India is fostering strategic partnerships with global nuclear technology leaders to enable technology transfer, co-production, and joint ventures for nuclear power development. Eg: India’s collaboration with the U.S. on advanced nuclear technology and the approval of SMRs to meet energy goals.

    Way forward: 

    • Enhanced Public-Private Partnerships: Encourage greater private sector participation through incentives, policy clarity, and long-term contracts, especially for emerging technologies like Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). This will drive innovation, investment, and rapid scaling of nuclear energy.
    • Strengthen International Collaboration and Technology Transfer: Expand partnerships with global leaders in nuclear technology to accelerate the adoption of advanced reactors and improve operational efficiency, positioning India as a global leader in clean nuclear energy.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2013] With growing scarcity of fossil fuels, the atomic energy is gaining more and more significance in India. Discuss the availability of raw material required for the generation of atomic energy in India and in the world.

    Linkage: Nuclear energy as a “next frontier” for India-U.S. linkages and a reliable source complementing renewables. This question directly addresses the significance and resources for atomic/nuclear energy in India.

  • [6th May 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: The messaging from putting the IWT in ‘abeyance’ 

    PYQ Relevance:

    [UPSC 2016] Present an account of the Indus Water Treaty and examine its ecological, economic and political implications in the context of changing bilateral relations.

    Linkage: The decision to put the IWT in ‘abeyance’ is discussed in the article within the context of changing bilateral relations between India and Pakistan following a terror attack. The article highlights the political implications and the strategic considerations behind the decision, which aligns with examining the treaty’s implications in changing bilateral relations.

     

    Mentor’s Comment:  On April 24, India declared that it would temporarily suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 until Pakistan stops supporting cross-border terrorism. The term “abeyance” means a temporary pause, with the possibility of restarting the treaty if Pakistan takes real actions to stop terrorism, especially following the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22.

    Today’s editorial discusses India’s temporary suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960. This topic is relevant for GS Paper II (International Relations).

    _

    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    Using water resources as a strategic tool may offer short-term gains, but it could ultimately harm India in the long run.

    Why has India placed the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance?

    • Response to Cross-Border Terrorism: India used the IWT as a strategic pressure tool following the Pahalgam terror attack (April 22, 2024), holding Pakistan accountable for supporting terrorism. Eg: Similar to the 2016 Uri attack response (surgical strikes), this move sends a message of zero tolerance.
    • Political Messaging and Public Sentiment: The decision caters to domestic outrage and shows a firm stance, particularly after recurring terror incidents. It helps the government project decisive action without immediate military escalation. Eg: After the Pulwama attack in 2019, India took firm actions like revoking Article 370 — a similar pattern of assertiveness is evident.
    • Leverage to Expedite Infrastructure Projects: India aims to use this pause to accelerate stalled or disputed hydropower and irrigation projects like Ratle and Tulbul Navigation on western rivers. Eg: Pakistan’s objections delayed the Kishenganga and Baglihar projects — abeyance reduces procedural hurdles temporarily.
    • Legal Dispute over Treaty Mechanism: India had already accused Pakistan of violating dispute resolution provisions of the IWT by unilaterally approaching the Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2023. Eg: India considers this a material breach and is using “abeyance” as a middle path instead of outright termination.
    • Strategic Signalling Amid Regional Instability: Given Pakistan’s current political and economic instability, India sees an opportunity to reshape the narrative and strengthen its own water security posture. Eg: With Pakistan’s military losing public support and the government under pressure, India is testing diplomatic leverage.

    Can using water resources strategically bring short-term gains but harm India long-term?

    • Diplomatic Strain: Using water as a tool for leverage can strain diplomatic relations with neighbouring countries, potentially leading to prolonged conflicts. Eg: If India disrupts water-sharing agreements under the Indus Waters Treaty, it could escalate tensions with Pakistan, affecting regional stability.
    • International Reputation: Strategic manipulation of water resources may damage India’s global image as a responsible water-sharing partner, undermining trust in future agreements. Eg: India’s suspension of the IWT may invite international criticism for violating treaty obligations, harming its reputation in the international community.

    What are the legal limitations under the IWT and international law regarding unilateral suspension or abeyance of a treaty?

    • Principle of Pacta Sunt Servanda: Under international law, treaties must be honored in good faith. This principle (pacta sunt servanda) ensures that once a treaty is ratified, it cannot be unilaterally suspended or abrogated without serious justification. Eg: In the IWT, India and Pakistan are obligated to maintain water-sharing arrangements despite political tensions.
    • Article 60 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties: A treaty can only be suspended or terminated unilaterally if there is a “material breach” or a fundamental change in circumstances (rebus sic stantibus), and this must be declared after due process. Eg: If one party to a treaty deliberately violates its terms, the other party might argue that the treaty is no longer binding.
    • Specific Treaty Provisions: Many treaties, including the IWT, include specific provisions about suspension, termination, or modification in certain circumstances. These provisions must be followed. Eg: In the IWT, disputes are to be resolved through a permanent commission rather than unilateral suspension of obligations.
    • Dispute Resolution Mechanisms: Most treaties include mechanisms for resolving disputes rather than allowing unilateral suspension, reinforcing the need for cooperation and dialogue. Eg: The IWT mandates the use of a Permanent Indus Commission to address any disputes regarding the water-sharing arrangement.

    How might India use the term “abeyance” to affect procedural cooperation mechanisms under the Indus Waters Treaty?

    • Suspension of Dispute Resolution Mechanism: The term “abeyance” suggests temporarily putting something on hold rather than full termination, which could lead to the suspension of mechanisms like the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) for resolving water-sharing disputes. Eg: If India places certain provisions of the IWT in abeyance, it could halt the regular meetings and communication under the PIC, leading to delayed resolutions.
    • Impact on Technical Cooperation: The IWT relies on continuous technical cooperation to monitor water flows and manage the shared river systems. “Abeyance” may disrupt such technical collaboration, affecting data sharing and joint assessments. Eg: India’s use of “abeyance” could delay joint inspections or data exchange related to water quality or infrastructure projects, impacting the treaty’s smooth functioning.
    • Erosion of Trust: Using “abeyance” could signal a lack of commitment to the treaty, potentially undermining trust between India and Pakistan and hindering future cooperation under the IWT. Eg: If India temporarily halts cooperation on the IWT, Pakistan may view it as a breach of good faith, weakening the foundation of trust that is critical for long-term collaboration.
    • Escalation of Diplomatic Tensions: The term could be interpreted as a politically motivated pause, which may lead to diplomatic tensions between the two countries. This would make it harder to revive procedural cooperation when needed. Eg: India’s declaration of “abeyance” after the 2019 Pulwama attack could escalate tensions and make it more difficult to resume dialogue on water-related issues, as the diplomatic focus shifts to security concerns.

    Way forward: 

    • Engage in Diplomatic Dialogue: India and Pakistan should prioritize re-engaging through the Permanent Indus Commission to address grievances and resume cooperation on water-sharing, ensuring that the IWT remains intact while managing political tensions.
    • Strengthen Dispute Resolution Mechanisms: Both countries should strengthen the dispute resolution mechanisms under the IWT, ensuring that any concerns over violations are addressed through legal channels rather than unilateral actions, preserving long-term stability and trust.

  • [2nd May 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: China’s strategic push — Asia ties amid tariff tensions

    PYQ Relevance:

    [UPSC 2017] China is using its economic relations and positive trade surplus as tools to develop potential military power status in Asia’, In the light of this statement, discuss its impact on India as her neighbor.

    Linkage: China’s economic relations to its strategic power status in Asia and asks about the impact on India, which aligns with the broader implications of China’s growing regional influence discussed in the source.

     

    Mentor’s Comment:  Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia from April 14-18, 2025, aimed to present China as the most reliable partner in the region. With a 145% tariff on Chinese goods imposed by the Trump administration, China is rethinking its foreign trade strategies, particularly with countries in Southeast Asia where it has strong ties and supportive partners. This visit is not just regular diplomacy but a strategic move by China to ease economic pressure, show stability, and strengthen its leadership role in the Indo-Pacific region.

    The editorial today analyzes Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia. This analysis can help in understanding the broader dynamics of China’s foreign policy and its impact on international relations, which is relevant for GS Paper 2 in the UPSC exam.

    _

    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    Beijing’s efforts to engage with Southeast Asia could make it harder for the U.S. to form a coalition aimed at isolating or limiting China economically.

    What was the aim of Xi Jinping’s Southeast Asia tour?

    • Counter U.S. Economic Pressure and Protectionism: In response to the 145% tariff on Chinese exports by the Trump administration, China used the tour to strengthen trade ties with receptive Southeast Asian partners like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia.
    • Position China as a Stable and Reliable Partner in the Indo-Pacific: Xi signed 45 agreements with Vietnam and over 30 with Malaysia, showcasing China’s willingness to invest in digital economy, AI, agriculture, and infrastructure — directly contrasting U.S. policies perceived as protectionist or security-centric.
    • Promote China’s Regional Leadership and Soft Power: Xi emphasized non-interference, cultural ties, and the Belt and Road Initiative, including major projects like the Funan Techo Canal in Cambodia, to build a “community with a shared future” and present China as the regional leader.

    Why is Southeast Asia key to China’s trade strategy?

    • Buffer Against U.S. Trade Pressures: As the U.S. imposes tariffs (e.g., 145% on Chinese exports under Trump), China needs trade partners less influenced by Washington. Eg: Cambodia, Vietnam, and Malaysia are not aligned with U.S. protectionism and offer alternate trade routes.
    • Alternative Manufacturing Base: Rising labor costs and export restrictions push China to shift low-cost manufacturing to nearby countries. Eg: Many Chinese firms are investing in Vietnamese and Malaysian industrial parks as part of their “China Plus One” strategy.
    • Gateway to Regional Supply Chains: Southeast Asia is integrated into global value chains and is a key node in East Asian manufacturing. Eg: The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) links China with ASEAN, allowing tariff-free trade on many goods.
    • Diplomatic and Economic Receptiveness: ASEAN countries are generally open to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and infrastructure investment. Eg: The Funan Techo Canal in Cambodia, funded by China, improves logistics and deepens economic ties.
    • Market Expansion and Political Influence: Growing middle classes and urbanization offer long-term markets for Chinese goods and services. Eg: Digital economy and AI agreements with Malaysia expand Chinese tech firms’ reach while strengthening bilateral ties.

    Which agreements were signed with Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia?

    • Vietnam – Strategic and Economic Deepening: China and Vietnam signed 45 cooperation agreements covering infrastructure, trade, connectivity, and border management. Eg: Agreements included railway connectivity, digital economy initiatives, and boosting cross-border trade.
    • Malaysia – Tech and Economic Collaboration: Over 30 agreements were signed focusing on the digital economy, artificial intelligence, agriculture, and infrastructure. Eg: MoUs on AI cooperation, palm oil trade, and joint development of industrial parks were key highlights.
    • Cambodia – Investment and Infrastructure Expansion: China reaffirmed its role as Cambodia’s largest investor and trading partner, with a focus on large-scale infrastructure projects. Eg: The Funan Techo Canal project was a major outcome, seen as a symbol of deepened strategic and economic ties.

    How does China’s approach differ from the U.S. in the region?

    • Economic Diplomacy vs. Security-Centric Strategy: China emphasizes infrastructure, trade, and investment, while the U.S. often leads with security alliances and military cooperation. Eg: China’s Belt and Road projects (like the Funan Techo Canal in Cambodia) contrast with U.S.-led initiatives like AUKUS and the Quad.
    • Non-Interference vs. Value-Based Engagement: China promotes a policy of non-interference and economic cooperation without imposing political conditions. The U.S. ties engagement to democracy, human rights, and strategic alignment. Eg: China’s warm ties with Cambodia, despite its authoritarian governance, contrast with U.S. criticism of its human rights record.
    • Tangible Deliverables vs. Abstract Frameworks: China offers clear economic incentives (like market access and investments), while U.S. initiatives often lack concrete trade benefits. Eg: China signs dozens of bilateral agreements; the U.S.’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) has been criticized for lacking market access.

    What could be the impact on India? 

    • Strategic Space Shrinkage in Southeast Asia: As China deepens ties with ASEAN countries, India may find it harder to expand its influence in the region. Eg: Vietnam engaging with China despite maritime tensions may dilute India’s strategic partnership with Hanoi.
    • Competitive Pressure on Infrastructure and Trade Diplomacy: China’s aggressive investment through BRI challenges India’s outreach via initiatives like the Act East Policy or Mekong–Ganga Cooperation. Eg: China’s infrastructure push in Cambodia (e.g., Funan Techo Canal) may overshadow India’s developmental efforts in the region.
    • Risk of Regional Economic Isolation: Closer China-ASEAN integration may sideline India from key trade and supply chains unless it accelerates its economic engagement. Eg: India’s exit from RCEP and China’s expanding trade deals with ASEAN may reduce India’s leverage in setting regional economic norms.

    Way forward: 

    • Strengthen Economic and Infrastructure Diplomacy: India should deepen its engagement with Southeast Asia through large-scale infrastructure projects, trade agreements, and digital economy initiatives to compete with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Eg: Focusing on improving connectivity, like the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway, and enhancing regional supply chains could help.
    • Foster Strategic Partnerships and Multilateral Cooperation: India should prioritize strengthening its strategic ties with ASEAN countries through multilateral platforms like the East Asia Summit (EAS) and the Quad, focusing on security and regional stability. Eg: India must increase its participation in economic partnerships to counter China’s growing influence.

  • [1st May 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: The impact of suspending a water treaty

    PYQ Relevance:

    [UPSC 2016]  Present an account of the Indus Water Treaty and examine its ecological, economic and political implications in the context of changing bilateral relations.

    Linkage:  India’s action regarding the IWT due to strained bilateral relations stemming from terrorism and outlines potential economic impacts on Pakistan and political/diplomatic implications for India.

     

    Mentor’s Comment:  In response to the terrorist attack by The Resistance Front that killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, India’s Cabinet Committee on Security decided to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 immediately. This suspension will remain in place until Pakistan completely stops supporting cross-border terrorism. The decision essentially means ending the water treaty, which was signed in 1960, but there is no clause in the treaty that allows for it to be cancelled unilaterally.

    Today’s editorial looks at the recent halt of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) after a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. This topic is useful for GS Paper II (International Relations).

    _

    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    India may defend its decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, but this could affect its relationships with neighbouring countries.

    Why did India suspend the Indus Waters Treaty?

    • Response to Cross-Border Terrorism: India suspended the IWT as a strong retaliatory measure after The Resistance Front, a Pakistan-backed terrorist group, killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. Eg: The Cabinet Committee on Security declared the suspension until Pakistan “credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.”
    • Strategic Leverage Against Pakistan: India views the IWT as a tool of strategic pressure, given that Pakistan’s agriculture and hydropower heavily rely on water from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. Eg: By suspending water-sharing obligations and planning to increase storage and diversion, India aims to weaken Pakistan’s water security.

    What legal challenges arise from this suspension under international law?

    • Lack of Exit Clause in the IWT: The IWT does not have a provision for unilateral termination or suspension by either party. Article XII (4) specifies that the treaty shall continue unless a duly ratified treaty for termination is concluded. Eg: India’s suspension of the treaty violates this provision, as there is no formal exit mechanism within the IWT itself.
    • Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT) Challenges: India’s use of VCLT provisions, particularly Article 62 on treaty modification or termination due to a fundamental change in circumstances, is problematic. India is not a party to the VCLT, and Pakistan has signed but not ratified it, making its application complex. Eg: Using VCLT to justify the suspension may face legal challenges since it doesn’t apply directly in the context of the IWT.
    • Violation of International Legal Norms: Unilateral suspension of the IWT without mutual consent may be viewed as a violation of customary international law, which favors the continuation of treaties unless both parties agree to their termination. Eg: Legal experts argue that India’s actions undermine the principle of pacta sunt servanda (agreements must be kept), which is a core tenet of international law.
    • Possible Retaliation and Legal Action by Pakistan: Pakistan has legal recourse to challenge India’s suspension, including bringing the issue to international forums such as the ICJ, UN Security Council, or the Permanent Court of Arbitration. Eg: Pakistan could argue that India’s suspension violates the VCLT or raises a dispute regarding the treaty’s interpretation, seeking a legal ruling on the matter.

    How could the move impact water disputes within Pakistan?

    • Intensification of Inter-Provincial Water Conflicts: Pakistan’s provinces, particularly Punjab and Sindh, already face longstanding water disputes. India’s suspension of the IWT could exacerbate these internal conflicts, especially as the western rivers are critical to both agriculture and hydroelectric power in Pakistan. Eg: Punjab and Sindh have previously clashed over water allocations, and a reduction in water flow from India could heighten tensions, particularly over the allocation of Indus river waters.
    • Increased Political Instability: A reduction in the water flow from India could lead to widespread agricultural damage and water shortages, particularly in Punjab, which is the country’s agricultural heartland. This could spark public protests and political instability within Pakistan. Eg: The ongoing disputes over projects like the Cholistan Canal between provinces may intensify if Pakistan faces reduced water availability, leading to political pressures on the federal government to resolve these disputes.

    Which infrastructure projects support India’s water strategy?

    • Hydroelectric Projects: Projects like Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project and Ratle Dam utilize water from the western rivers for power generation, in line with India’s share under the Indus Waters Treaty.
    • Run-of-the-River Dams: Baglihar Dam and Salal Dam regulate river flows for electricity generation, without significant water storage, supporting India’s strategy to manage water resources.
    • Irrigation and Flood Control: Infrastructure like the Srinagar flood control project and irrigation systems in Jammu and Kashmir helps manage water for agricultural use and regional stability.

    What are the regional diplomatic consequences of India’s decision?

    • Strained Relations with Pakistan: Suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) may worsen India-Pakistan relations, particularly over water access, potentially leading to diplomatic protests. Eg: Pakistan could raise the issue at international platforms like the UN or the International Court of Justice.
    • Impact on India-China Relations: China, as an upper riparian of India’s rivers, may use India’s suspension to justify withholding hydro data on rivers like the Brahmaputra. Eg: During the 2017 Doklam crisis, China did not share hydro data with India but did with Bangladesh.
    • Influence on India-Bangladesh Ties: India’s suspension could affect the renewal of the Ganga Water Treaty with Bangladesh in 2026. Eg: Bangladesh could be concerned about water-sharing agreements, given the geopolitical tensions.

    Way forward:

    • Engage in Diplomatic Dialogue: India should initiate diplomatic discussions with Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh to mitigate tensions and seek mutually beneficial water-sharing agreements, ensuring regional stability.
    • Strengthen Water Infrastructure: India must invest in enhancing its water storage and management infrastructure to maximize its treaty entitlements and reduce reliance on fluctuating water flows.

  • India raises Continental Shelf claim in Arabian Sea Region

    Why in the News?

    India has recently expanded its claim in the Central Arabian Sea by nearly 10,000 square kilometers as part of its ‘extended continental shelf,’ modifying an earlier claim to resolve a dispute with Pakistan.

    India raises Continental-Shelf claim in Arabian Sea Region

    About Extended Continental Shelf (ECS):

    • ECS refers to the area beyond 200 nautical miles that countries can claim by submitting geological and geophysical evidence to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS).
    • These claims allow countries to explore resources like oil, gas, and minerals on and beneath the seabed.
    • Coastal states have rights to an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) up to 200 nautical miles from their coastline.
    • However, such States can claim additional seabed area beyond this limit if they prove scientifically that the continental shelf extends naturally from their landmass.

    Back2Basics: Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS)

    • The CLCS estd. In 1997, is a UN body under the UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) that helps states determine the outer limits of their continental shelf beyond 200 nautical miles.
    • The CLCS reviews the scientific data provided by states and makes binding recommendations on the extent of the outer shelf limits.
    • The commission comprises 21 experts from geology, geophysics, and hydrography, ensuring legal compliance and peaceful boundary resolution.

    India’s Modified Claims and Pakistan:

    • India first submitted a claim in 2009 for an extended shelf in the Bay of Bengal, Indian Ocean, and Arabian Sea, claiming an additional 1.2 million square kilometers.
    • After Pakistan’s objections, India modified its claim, splitting it into two parts to resolve disputes and ensure uncontroversial areas in the Central Arabian Sea.
    • India also increased its claim by 10,000 square kilometers using new scientific data.
    • The Sir Creek area, a disputed waterway between India and Pakistan, remains a point of contention, but India’s modification aims for peaceful resolution.
    • India’s claim overlaps with Oman’s shelf, but the two countries have an agreement to keep the delimitation open without conflict.
    [UPSC 2022] With reference to the United Nations Convention on the Law of Sea, consider the following statements:

    1. A coastal state has the right to establish the breadth of its territorial sea up to a limit not exceeding 12 nautical miles, measured from baseline determined in accordance with the convention.

    2. Ships of all states, whether coastal or land-locked, enjoy the right of innocent passage through the territorial sea.

    3. The Exclusive Economic Zone shall not extend beyond 200 nautical miles from the baseline from which the breadth of the territorial sea is measured.

    Which of the statements given above are correct?

    Options: (a) 1 and 2 only (b) 2 and 3 only (c) 1 and 3 only (d) 1, 2 and 3*

     

  • Indus Waters Treaty, Simla Agreement ‘in abeyance’: What this means

    Why in the News?

    After the Pahalgam terror attack, India responded by putting the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) on hold and announced several other diplomatic steps. In return, Pakistan said it would also consider suspending all bilateral agreements with India, including the Simla Agreement.

    What are the key reasons cited by India for holding the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) “in abeyance”?

    • Fundamental Change in Circumstances: India argues that since the treaty’s signing in 1960, there has been a drastic shift in population demographics and developmental needs, especially the urgent requirement for clean energy. Eg: India’s push for hydropower projects on western rivers like Kishanganga and Ratle reflects its clean energy goals.
    • Violation of Good Faith Principle: India claims that Pakistan has not acted in good faith, as evidenced by its continuous sponsorship of cross-border terrorism, which undermines mutual trust required under international treaties. Eg: The recent Pahalgam terror attack is cited as part of a pattern of hostile actions.
    • Obstruction in Treaty Implementation: India points to Pakistan’s resistance and obstructionist approach in dispute resolution and infrastructure development under the treaty framework. Eg: In 2016, Pakistan bypassed the Neutral Expert process and approached the Permanent Court of Arbitration directly, delaying dam projects.

    Why is the term “hold in abeyance” not considered valid under international law, especially in the context of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT)?

    • “Abeyance” Not Recognised in VCLT Terminology: The VCLT only recognises terms like “termination” and “suspension” of treaties—not “abeyance.” Hence, “holding a treaty in abeyance” has no formal legal status or procedural clarity under international law. Eg: Article 62 of the VCLT provides for treaty termination due to fundamental change in circumstances, but does not mention or define “abeyance.”
    • High Threshold for Fundamental Change: Even under Article 62, “fundamental change in circumstances” must directly relate to the core purpose of the treaty, and meet strict criteria set by international jurisprudence, particularly the ICJ. Eg: In the 1984 Nicaragua v. United States case, the ICJ rejected the US claim that a political shift in Nicaragua was a fundamental change justifying treaty exit.

    How does the dispute resolution mechanism under the Indus Waters Treaty function? & What are its three tiers?

    • Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) – First Tier: Both India and Pakistan appoint Commissioners who meet regularly to resolve technical and implementation issues bilaterally. This is the first step in resolving disputes. Eg: Disagreements over annual data sharing or small projects are often addressed at this level.
    • Neutral Expert – Second Tier: If the issue remains unresolved, either country can request the World Bank to appoint a Neutral Expert for technical matters such as design parameters of projects. Eg: In 2005, a Neutral Expert was appointed to resolve the Baglihar Dam dispute between India and Pakistan.
    • Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) – Third Tier: If the issue is legal or political, or if technical resolution fails, the matter can be escalated to the Permanent Court of Arbitration, facilitated by the World Bank. Eg: In 2016, Pakistan skipped the Neutral Expert stage and approached the PCA over the Kishanganga and Ratle projects, which India opposed.

    When did Pakistan previously bypass the neutral expert stage under the IWT?

    • Bypassing in 2016 Over Indian Hydropower Projects: In 2016, Pakistan directly approached the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) over India’s construction of the Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects, skipping the Neutral Expert stage meant for resolving technical disputes. Eg: Pakistan alleged that India’s designs violated the IWT’s specifications regarding spillway structures and pondage levels.
    • India’s Objection to Parallel Proceedings: India strongly opposed this move, stating that the IWT does not allow parallel proceedings at both the Neutral Expert and PCA stages for the same issue. India refused to participate in the PCA process and called for dispute resolution through the Neutral Expert instead. Eg: India maintained that allowing parallel processes undermines the treaty’s dispute resolution structure.

    Which Simla Agreement clauses are “best endeavour clauses” and why are they non-binding?

    • Nature of Language – Non-Mandatory Phrasing: Clauses in the Simla Agreement use soft language such as “shall prevent” or “pending final settlement” rather than definitive legal commands. This implies a diplomatic intention rather than enforceable obligations. Eg: “Pending the final settlement… both sides shall prevent… acts detrimental to peaceful relations” is advisory, not obligatory.
    • Absence of Enforcement or Penalty Mechanism: The agreement does not specify consequences for violations, nor does it include a dispute resolution framework. This makes compliance a matter of political will rather than legal duty. Eg: Despite ceasefire violations and the 1999 Kargil conflict, no legal action could be taken under the Simla Agreement.
    • Meant to Guide, Not Compel: These clauses are seen as guiding principles or diplomatic assurances, commonly called “best endeavour clauses” in international law, which reflect a commitment to try but not an obligation to achieve. Eg: The agreement promotes bilateralism, but repeated internationalization of Kashmir by Pakistan hasn’t attracted treaty penalties.

    Way forward: 

    • Treaty Modernisation Through Bilateral Dialogue: India and Pakistan should initiate structured negotiations to update the Indus Waters Treaty, aligning it with present-day challenges like climate change, clean energy needs, and population growth.
    • Strengthen Dispute Resolution with Third-Party Mediation Rules: Introduce clear procedural timelines and limitations on bypassing dispute tiers (e.g., Neutral Expert stage) to ensure consistency, transparency, and mutual trust in treaty enforcement.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2016] Present an account of the Indus Water Treaty and examine its ecological, economic and political implications in the context of changing bilateral relations.

    Linkage: The Indus Water Treaty is very important in the current situation where it’s being “put on hold.” It directly relates to the changing relationship between India and Pakistan, which is the main reason behind this move.