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Subject: Bilateral Relations

1. Major World Events
2. India’s Interests in neighbourhood
3. Effects of our Policies

  • Myanmar’s internal situation shouldn’t hobble India’s ‘Act East’ policy

    Context

    The military takeover in Myanmar on February 1, 2021 and its aftermath have seen an adverse impact on India’s Act East policy.

    What happened in Myanmar?

    • The 2021 coup occurred in the aftermath of the general election on 8 November 2020, in which the NLD won 396 out of 476 seats in parliament, an even larger margin of victory than in the 2015 election. The military’s proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party, won only 33 seats. The Army claimed the results of the election were rigged and did not acknowledge the results.
    • On February 3 2021, Aung San Suu Kyi was placed under house arrest under charges for breaking COVID-19 laws. Additional charges included importing and using radio and communication devices from her security team which is prohibited in Myanmar and require clearances from intelligence agencies.
    • Aung San Suu Kyi received an additional criminal charge for violating the National Disaster Act on 16 February, and two additional charges for violating communications laws and an intent to incite public unrest on 1 March.

    Events of the Myanmar Coup

    • By March 31st 2021, at least 520 civilians have been killed by military or police forces and at least 3070 pope. At least three members from the NLD have died in police custody
    • About 400 elected parliament members were placed under house arrest. Following the coup, the NLD arranged for the MPs to remain housed in the complex until 6 February.
    • When the Myanmar ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, condemned the coup by the military, he was fired from his post the following day.
    • Civil resistance efforts have emerged within the country, in opposition to the. Numerous acts of civil disobedience labour strokes, military boycott campaign, and formal recognition of the election results by elected officials
    • Since the onset of the coup, residents in urban centres such as Yangon staged cacerolazos, striking pots and pans in unison every evening as a symbolic act to drive away evil, as a method of expressing their opposition to the coup.

    India’s stance regarding the Myanmar Coup

    • Ever since the protests started, there have been reports of defections from the Myanmar Police Force. On March 11, 2021, 11 officers crossed the India-Myanmar border into the state of Mizoram with their families. The Myanmar government reached out to India to extradite them, with the Indian government replying that they would make a decision regarding that matter.
    • The Assam Rifles were given orders to tighten security along the India–Myanmar border. From 10 March, the border has been closed after 48 nationals from Myanmar have crossed it.
    • Officially, the Indian government has expressed its deepest concern regarding the developing situation in Myanmar. While supporting a smooth and transitional process towards democracy, it is also concerned that the instability in Myanmar may affect the northeastern states.

    Look East Policy

    • In order to recover from the loss of the strategic partner -USSR (end of the Cold war 1991), India sought to build up a relationship with the USA and allies of the USA in Southeast Asia.
    • In this pursuit, former Prime minister of India P V Narasimha Rao launched Look East policy in 1992, to give a strategic push to India’s engagement with the South-East Asia region, to bolster its standing as a regional power and a counterweight to the strategic influence of the People’s Republic of China.

     

    Difference Between Look East and Act East:

    Look East:

    • Look East policy focused on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries + Economic Integration.
    • India became a dialogue partner of ASEAN in 1996 and summit level partner in 2002.
    • In 2012 the relationship got up-graded into a Strategic Partnership.
    • The time when India launched the Look East Policy in 1992, India’s trade with ASEAN was USD 2 billion. After signing the Free Trade Agreement in 2010 with ASEAN, the trade has grown to USD 72 billion (2017-18).
    • India is also an active participant in several regional forums like the East Asia Summit (EAS), ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) etc.

     

    Act East:

    Act East Policy focused on ASEAN countries + Economic Integration + East Asian countries + Security cooperation.

    Prime minister of India highlighted 4C’s of Act East Policy.

    • Culture
    • Commerce
    • Connectivity
    • Capacity building

     

    • Security is an important dimension of India’s Act East Policy.
    • In the context of growing Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, securing freedom of navigation and India’s own role in the Indian Ocean is a key feature of Act East Policy.
    • In pursuance of this, India has been engaged under the narrative of Indo-pacific and informal grouping called Quad.

    Impact on Act East policy

    • With the present dispensation in Myanmar, the Act East policy is going nowhere.
    • Impact on outreach: This has not only stymied New Delhi’s initiatives in terms of land outreach towards the vibrant economies of South East Asia, but has retarded development in the Northeast.
    • Pragmatism demands that an ambitious policy that had fired the aspirations of the Northeast does not become a casualty to the inertia of policymakers.
    • There seems to be a full-bodied recalibration exercise among insurgent groups operating from the Sagaing Division and Chin State in Myanmar.
    • In the north, the ULFA which was until recently in a submissive mood and had declared three back-to-back unilateral ceasefires has suddenly turned belligerent.
    • Need for a relook at Act East policy: In this background, a fresh look needs to be taken at both the furtherance of the Act East policy and the security matrix that governs the Northeast.

    Suggestions

    1] Opening a new axis of land-sea connectivity

    • Promoting trade and commerce: Favourable bilateral relations with Bangladesh offer an opportunity for opening a new axis of land-sea connectivity for promoting trade and commerce with Southeast Asia.
    • Upgrade land routes: There is a need to upgrade the multitude of land routes to the seaports of Mongla and Chittagong in Bangladesh, from Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Tripura.
    • The key land linkages from the Northeast are — Agartala via Akhaura, Dawki (Meghalaya) via Tamabil, Sutarkandi (Assam), and Srimantapur (Tripura) via Bibir Bazar.
    • Exploit shared river connectivity: In addition, there is a need to use inland water transport (IWT) to exploit the shared river connectivity of the Brahmaputra and Barak rivers.

    2] Continued engagement with Myanmar

    • The land gateway to South East Asia does not seem likely in the near future.
    • But there should be no dilution in our initiatives to ensure that peace and stability return to Myanmar at the earliest.
    • For this, there is a need for continued engagement, both formal and informal, with the warring factions in Myanmar.

    3] Develop appropriate infrastructure

    • Appropriate infrastructure such as container depots, cold storage facilities and seamless highways will have to be developed on a war footing.
    • Indian manufactured goods will have to be transported to the rail/roadheads in the Northeast like Guwahati for ready access to the seaports of Bangladesh.

    4] Integrated defence zones

    • To make ineffective the strike capability of the insurgent groups there is a need to create “integrated defence zones”.
    •  These should be jointly manned by the Tatmadaw (Myanmar army) and the Indian Army/Assam Rifles
    • To enthuse dynamism and empower the Assam Rifles, there is a need to retain its current structure of being officered by the Indian Army, as it ensures systemic command and control.
    • This force needs to be mandated to undertake intelligence operations for greater transparency of the events within Myanmar and further the national strategy.

    Conclusion

    The Act East policy is intertwined with India’s Northeast policy. Let not the dismal scenario of Myanmar impede our vision for the actualisation of our ambitious Act East to go East, as alternates exist. To that end, there is a need to ensure the continued economic development of Northeastern states.

     

  • India-Pakistan ties and the mirror of 2019

    Context

    An official delegation from Pakistan was in New Delhi recently to hold talks with its Indian counterparts under the aegis of the Indus Water Treaty.

    Positive developments in the relations

    • Starting from February, India has been sending through Pakistan consignments of wheat, via the World Food Programme, to the Taliban-run Afghanistan.
    • Evidently, channels of communication between the two governments are working and open hostility has subsided, if not vanished completely.
    • China factor: The change has been driven by realist considerations that surfaced during the Ladakh border crisis on the Line of Actual Control with China in the summer of 2020.
    • The recent change of government in Pakistan, including Imran Khan’s removal, is seen as a positive in New Delhi.
    • The official Indian establishment has had close ties with both the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and the Pakistan Peoples Party that are now part of the government.

    Countering the collusive military threat from China and Pakistan

    • The border crisis in Ladakh raised the spectre of a collusive military threat between China and Pakistan.
    • Such a challenge cannot be effectively dealt with by the military alone and would need all the instruments of the state — diplomatic, economic, informational, and military — to act in concert.
    •  To prevent such a situation, India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval opened backchannel talks with Pakistan.

    Way ahead

    • There are some low-hanging fruits which can be plucked the moment a political go-ahead is given.
    • These include a deal on the Sir Creek dispute, an agreement for revival of bilateral trade, return of High Commissioners to the missions in Delhi and Islamabad, and build-up of diplomatic missions to their full strength.
    • Demilitarisation of the Siachen glacier is still seen to be off the table as the Indian proposal is believed to be unacceptable to the Pakistan Army.
    • A window of opportunity would possibly open in Pakistan after the next elections, which are scheduled next year but could be held earlier.

    Conclusion

    India must shift course from the belligerence it has displayed and profited from earlier in favour of proper diplomatic and political engagement with Pakistan.

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  • Why India must engage Taliban

    Context

    It is good that India has extended humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan at this time through international agencies and not let its unhappiness with the Taliban’s policies come in the way.

    India’s  recent engagement with Afghanistan

    • Recently, the Ministry of External Affairs announced that a team led by J P Singh, Joint Secretary (PAI) “is currently on a visit to Kabul to oversee the delivery operations of our humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan”.
    • The MEA clearly implied that this engagement should be seen only in the limited context of assistance to the Afghan people
    • The continuance of humanitarian assistance can be only one, though an important, segment of interaction; other aspects, especially security issues and later, connectivity and investments, as Afghanistan stabilises, have to be part of the dialogue with the Taliban.

    Why Afghanistan matters to India’s security

    • Afghanistan impacts India’s security.
    •  It has, in the past, provided space to al Qaeda with which the Taliban had a special relationship.
    • Afghanistan has an ISIS presence too.
    • Of special concern to India are the Taliban’s ties with the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.
    • A recent United Nations report has emphasised that the Taliban’s connections with these groups have not been severed.

    So, what should be India’s approach toward the Taliban?

    • It is argued that both “principle and pragmatism” demand that India should not do business with the Taliban.
    • However, Pakistan has continued to sponsor terror and yet India has continued to engage it and has maintained a diplomatic presence in Islamabad. 
    • India cannot argue that the diplomatic door must be kept open for Pakistan because it’s a neighbour while it can be shut on the Taliban because Afghanistan directly impacts Indian security.
    • Engagement with Taliban: An engagement with the Taliban would at least give an opportunity to convey Indian concerns directly and encourage those elements within the group who wish to open up its diplomatic choices.
    • Exploit contradiction: Far from being a monolith, the Taliban has significant tribal and regional contradictions.
    • Therefore, India should not leave the Afghan arena entirely to Pakistan and China because of the social manifestation of Taliban theology.
    • The Taliban is here to stay and for India, there is no alternative but to deal with it even while repeating, if it wishes, the mantra of inclusive government.
    • India should also maintain contacts with the leaders of the ousted Republic, especially as the Taliban itself wants them to return to the country.

    Conclusion

    All in all, the sooner India establishes a permanent presence in Kabul the better for the pursuit of national interests in the external sphere. This is not an exercise in evangelism but the cold and undeterred pursuit of interests.

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  • Why the Gulf matters for India?

    India has hit out at the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) over its statement condemning the comments made by two Indian leaders in retaliation to the insults on Hindu deities.

    The spread of religious hatred should be condemned in any form.

    But do you think that the onus of secularism has been bestowed only on a particular religious community?

    It is often observed that the other community is free to make blasphemous comments on various deities in guise of the exercise of their freedom of speech!

    What is the news?

    • The remark had triggered outrage in the Islamic world.
    • Qatar and Kuwait summoned India’s Ambassadors and handed over to them protest notes.
    • India has categorically rejected and condemned the controversial remarks.

    Why is Gulf outraging?

    • Barring the Jewish state of Israel, the 10 other countries of the Gulf region — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Oman, Jordan and Yemen — together account for one-fifth of the world’s Muslim population.
    • They are among the strongest voices of the Muslim world.

    Gulf countries and India

    • India has enjoyed centuries of good relations with countries like Iran, while smaller gas-rich nation Qatar is one of India’s closest allies in the region.
    • India shares good relations with most of the countries in the Gulf.
    • The two most important reasons for the relationship are oil and gas, and trade.
    • Two additional reasons are the huge number of Indians who work in the Gulf countries, and the remittance they send back home.

    How much trade does India do with countries in this region?

    • The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) substantial oil and gas reserves are of utmost importance for India’s energy needs.
    • The GCC includes UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait.
    • It has emerged as a major trading partner of India and has vast potential as India’s investment partner for the future.

    (1) UAE

    • The UAE was India’s third largest trading partner in 2021-2022, and second largest for both exports ($28 billion) and imports ($45 billion) when these are counted individually.
    • In terms of total trade volume, the UAE ($72.9 billion) was behind the United States ($1.19 trillion) and China ($1.15 trillion).
    • The UAE accounted for 6.6% of India’s total exports and 7.3% of imports in the last financial year, up 68.4% since the previous year when international trade was impacted by the pandemic.

    (2) Saudi Arabia

    • At a total volume of $42.9 billion in 2021-22, Saudi Arabia was India’s fourth largest trading partner.
    • While exports were low at $8.76 billion (2.07% of India’s total exports), imports from Saudi Arabia were the fourth largest at $34.1 billion (7%), up 50% from the previous year.
    • Most of it was crude oil.

    (3) Iraq

    • It was India’s fifth largest trading partner in 2021-22 at $34.3 billion.

    (4) Qatar

    • The total trade was $15 billion, accounting for just 1.4% of India’s total trade, but the country is India’s most important supplier of natural gas.
    • Qatar accounts for 41% of India’s total natural gas imports.
    • The UAE accounts for another 11%.

    How much oil does India import?

    • More than 84% of India’s petroleum demand, which included crude oil and petroleum products, was met with imports.
    • The share of Persian Gulf countries in India’s crude imports has remained at around 60% over the last 15 years.
    • India sourced crude oil from 42 countries in 2021-22, up from 27 countries in 2006-07. Hence the sources are now more diversified.
    • In 2021-2022, the largest exporter of oil to India was Iraq, whose share has gone up from 9% in 2009-2010 to 22%.
    • Saudi Arabia has accounted for 17-18% of India’s oil imports for over a decade. Kuwait and UAE remain major oil exporters to India.
    • Iran used to be the second largest oil exporter to India in 2009-2010, its share went down to less than 1% in 2020-21, due to US sanctions.

    Why Gulf matters?

    Ans. Huge remittances

    • More than 13.46 million Indian citizens work abroad. If Persons of Indian Origin are added, this number goes up to over 32 million.
    • Counting only the 13.4 million non-resident Indians (NRIs), the Gulf has the largest numbers.
    • The UAE (3.42 million), Saudi Arabia (2.6 million) and Kuwait (1.03 million) together account for over half of all NRIs.
    • In terms of remittances from abroad, India was the largest recipient in 2020 at $83.15 billion, according to World Bank data.
    • This was nearly twice the remittances to the next highest recipient, Mexico, at $42.9 billion.
    • The UAE accounted for 26.9%, Saudi Arabia for 11.6%, Qatar for 6.4%, Kuwait for 5.5% and Oman for 3%.
    • Beyond the GCC, remittances from the US accounted for 22.9%, second only to the UAE.

     

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  • What are Mutual Legal Assistance Treaties (MLATs)?

    The CBI is in the process of sending requests to several countries seeking information under the MLATs about those involved in the online sexual abuse of minors and circulation of child pornographic material on social media platforms.

    What are MLATs?

    • The MLATs in criminal matters are the bilateral treaties entered between the countries for providing international cooperation and assistance.
    • These agreements allow for the exchange of evidence and information in criminal and related matters between the signing countries.

    Benefits of Treaty

    • It enhances the effectiveness of participating countries in the investigation and prosecution of crime, through cooperation and mutual legal assistance.
    • It will provide a broad legal framework for tracing, restrain and confiscation of proceeds and instruments of crime as well as the funds meant to finance terrorist acts.
    • It will be instrumental in gaining better inputs and insights in the modus operandi of organized criminals and terrorists.
    • These in turn can be used to fine-tune policy decisions in the field of internal security.

    Enforcing MLATs in India

    • The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) is the nodal Ministry and the Central authority for seeking and providing mutual legal assistance in criminal law matters.
    • The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) may be involved in this process when such requests are routed through diplomatic channels by these Ministries.
    • Section 105 of the Criminal Procedure Code (CrPC) speaks of reciprocal arrangements to be made by the Centre with the Foreign Governments

     

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  • India Bangladesh Relations

    Two years after they were stopped due to the onset of the pandemic, passenger train services between India and Bangladesh resumed with the Bandhan Express setting off from Kolkata for Khulna and the Maitree Express starting its run from Dhaka for Kolkata.

    History of Rail Connectivity

    • The Bandhan Express was resumed by rebooting a long-forgotten rail link between Kolkata and the industrial hub of Khulna, the third-largest city of Bangladesh.
    • In 1965, this route was served by the Barisal Express, which was stopped due to the India-Pakistan war.
    • The Modi government along with the Sheikh Hasina regime restarted that with Bandhan in 2017.
    • The Bandhan Express was the second train to be flagged off after the introduction of Maitree Express between Kolkata and Dhaka Cantonment in April, 2008.
    • It covers the distance between Kolkata and Khulna via Petrapole and Benapole border route to cater to the demands of the people from both the countries.
    • The Bandhan Express was resumed in 2017 by rebooting a long-forgotten rail link between Kolkata and the industrial hub of Khulna.

    Beyond passenger travel

    • The governments of both the countries have been working towards strengthening the rail link between them, and not just through passenger trains.
    • In August 2021, the two sides started regular movement of freight trains between the newly-restored link between Haldibari in India and Chilahati in Bangladesh.
    • The Haldibari-Chilahati rail link between India and the then East Pakistan was also operational till 1965 and stopped due to the war.
    • This was part of the broad gauge main route from Kolkata to Siliguri at the time of Partition.
    • The two sides envisage at least 20 freight trains to cross the border per month on this link.

    Rail infrastructure

    • Once part of a single, seamless railway network under British rule, trains continued to pass between the two countries even after the Partition.
    • The infrastructure to connect the two sides through railways was, therefore, largely present.
    • Policymakers on both sides viewed this as an opportunity to deepen diplomatic ties using cross-border movements of goods and passengers.
    • Five rail links have so far been rebooted between India and Bangladesh:

    Petrapole (India)-Benapole (Bangladesh), Gede (India)- Darshana (Bangladesh), Singhabad (India)-Rohanpur (Bangladesh), Radhikapur (India)-Birol (Bangladesh) and the Haldibari-Chilahati link

     

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  • Pak delegation in India for Indus Water Treaty talks

    A five-member Pakistani delegation has arrived in India for talks over the ongoing water dispute under the Indus Water Commission between the two countries.

    Why in news?

    • India is building 10 hydro plant projects to cut excess water into Pakistan.
    • Pakistan is expected to raise the projects being constructed by India under the Indus treaty.

    What is Indus Water Treaty?

    • The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank signed in Karachi in 1960.
    • According to this agreement, control over the water flowing in three “eastern” rivers of India — the Beas, the Ravi and the Sutlej was given to India
    • The control over the water flowing in three “western” rivers of India — the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum was given to Pakistan.

    Basis of the treaty: Equitable water-sharing

    • Back in time, partitioning the Indus rivers system was inevitable after the Partition of India in 1947.
    • The sharing formula devised after prolonged negotiations sliced the Indus system into two halves.
    • Equitable it may have seemed, but the fact remained that India conceded 80.52 percent of the aggregate water flows in the Indus system to Pakistan.
    • It also gave Rs 83 crore in pounds sterling to Pakistan to help build replacement canals from the western rivers.
    • Such generosity is unusual of an upper riparian.
    • India conceded its upper riparian position on the western rivers for the complete rights on the eastern rivers.
    • Water was critical for India’s development plans.

    What were the rights accorded to India?

    • The treaty allowed India to use western rivers water for limited irrigation use and unrestricted use for power generation, domestic industrial and non-consumptive uses such as navigation, floating of property, fish culture, etc.
    • It lays down precise regulations to build any water or hydel projects.
    • India has been given the right to generate hydroelectricity through run-of-the-river projects on the western rivers subject to specific criteria for design and operation.
    • The pact also gives the right to Pakistan to raise objections to designs of Indian hydroelectric projects on the western rivers.

    Significance of the treaty

    • It is a treaty that is often cited as an example of the possibilities of peaceful coexistence that exist despite the troubled relationship.
    • It has survived 3 crucial wars.
    • It may be listed among the most successful international treaties as it has withstood the test of time.

    Why has the treaty survived?

    • It is for India’s generosity on Pakistan for sharing waters of its own rivers.
    • India has refrained from weaponizing waters. Pakistan cannot survive without this treaty.
    • About 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on Indus and the riparian rivers waters.
    • Backtracking on the treaty could affect India’s stand as global reliable partner who disrespects bilateral agreements.

    A tacit nerve of terroristan

    • Responding to state sponsor of terrorism by Pakistan, India can escalate a water war , which can kill the crippling economy of Pakistan.
    • If India wants, it can either flood or drought-starve Pakistan by not obligating to this treaty.

    Need for a rethink

    • But PM Modi’s words equally hold relevance that “Blood and waters cannot flow together”.
    • There is no reason to believe that India could start a water war with Pakistan on humanitarian grounds.
    • Floods and droughts will starve ordinary Pakistanis while their politicians would still live in luxury.

    Way forward

    • The role of India, as a responsible upper riparian abiding by the provisions of the treaty, has been remarkable.
    • However, India needs to rethink or re-negotiate this treaty.
    • Just like water affects ordinary Pakistanis, so does terrorism affects Indians.

     

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  • Understanding the nature of US-Taiwan Relations

    The US President made a controversial statement on whether the US will come to the aid of Taiwan militarily in case of an invasion by China.

    What is the Taiwan issue?

    • Taiwan is an island territory located off the coast of mainland China, across the Taiwan Strait.
    • After their defeat to the communist forces in the Chinese civil war (1945-1949), the ruling Kuomintang (Nationalist) government of China fled to Taiwan.
    • They transplanted the Republic of China (ROC) government in Taiwan, while the Communist Party of China (CPC) established the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the mainland.
    • Since then, the PRC considers the island as a renegade province awaiting reunification by peaceful means, if possible.

    Game changer: Cold war affiliations

    • Meanwhile, the ROC retained its membership at the United Nations and its permanent seat at the UN Security Council (UNSC).
    • The cross-strait relations became strained as a result of the Cold War, with the PRC allying itself with the Soviet Union (USSR) and ROC with the U.S.
    • This resulted in the two Taiwan Strait crises of the 1950s.

    The US and One-China Principle

    • With the shifting geopolitics of the Cold War, the PRC and the U.S. were forced to come together in the 1970s to counter the growing influence of the USSR.
    • This led to the US-China rapprochement demonstrated by the historic visit of then US President Richard Nixon to PRC in 1972.
    • The same year, the PRC displaced ROC as the official representative of the Chinese nation at the UN.
    • Diplomatic relations with the PRC became possible only if countries abided by its “One China Principle” — recognizing PRC and not the ROC as China.

    Rise of Taiwan

    • Taiwan transitioned from a single party state to a multi-party democracy.
    • At the same time that China reformed its economic system under Deng Xiaoping, and by the end of the Cold War they became economically entangled.
    • Nevertheless, they continue to compete for international recognition and preparing themselves for the worst possible scenario.

    How has the US’s stance on the Taiwan question evolved vis-à-vis China?

    • The very foundation of the US rapprochement as well as its recognition of the PRC is a mutual understanding on the Taiwan question.
    • This has been outlined in three documents — the Shanghai Communique (1972), the Normalisation Communique (1979) and the 1982 Communique.
    • According to the 1972 communique, the US agreed to the ‘one China principle’, with an understanding that it “acknowledges” and “does not challenge” that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait.
    • It maintained that there is one China and Taiwan is a part of China.
    • However, the US also established unofficial relations with Taiwan through this communique in the name of the people of both the countries.

     Why is the issue significant today?

    • As Taiwan’s democracy flourished, the popular mood drifted towards a new Taiwanese identity and a pro-independence stance on sovereignty.
    • The past decade has seen considerable souring of ties across the Strait, as the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) became the most powerful political force in Taiwan.
    • The DPP government has been catering to the pro-independence constituency in Taiwan and seeks to diversify economic relations away from China.
    • China has always seen Taiwan as a territory with high geopolitical significance.
    • This is due to its central location in the First Island Chain between Japan and the South China Sea, which is seen as the first benchmark or barrier for China’s power projection.

    Why is China so obsessed with Taiwan?

    • Taiwan is at China’s geostrategic calculus.
    • Moreover, its reunification will formally bury the remaining ghosts of China’s “century of humiliation”.
    • China under Xi Jinping seems to have lost its patience and currently sees very slim chances of a peaceful reunification.
    • China usually makes aerial transgressions in Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ).
    • Also, this build-up of tensions is happening simultaneously and drawing parallels with the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

    Is US strategy towards Taiwan witnessing a major transformation?

    • The US strategy towards Taiwan in light of the unresolved nature of the cross-Strait relations has been marked by what has been called “strategic ambiguity”.
    • This is under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979.
    • As per the TRA, the US has stated clearly that the establishment of bilateral relations with the PRC rests upon “the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means”.
    • It also states the US policy to maintain the capacity to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardise the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.
    • Hence, there is no clear guarantee here that the US will militarily involve in a situation where China attempts to invade Taiwan, short of supplying “defensive weapons”.

    Enjoying the ambiguity

    • The US has for long utilized this strategic ambiguity with its own interpretation of the ‘one China principle to maintain its strategic interests in the Western Pacific.
    • It is in this context that Mr. Biden’s statements have made controversy.

     

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  • For a better South Asian neighbourhood

    Context

    Recent developments — in Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Pakistan — underline the geographic imperative that binds India to its neighbours in the Subcontinent.

    Need for intensive regional cooperation for managing the new dangers

    • Working with the logic of geography has become an unavoidable necessity amidst the deepening regional and global crises accentuated by Russia’s war in Ukraine.
    • As higher oil and food prices trigger inflation and popular unrest across the region, more intensive regional cooperation is one of the tools for managing the new dangers.

    Hope for transcending internal divide between India and Sri Lanka

    • India’s relations with Sri Lanka underline the importance of continuous tending of political geography.
    • Tradition of hosting political exile: India has had a long tradition of hosting political exiles from the region.
    • Whether it was the Dalai Lama from Tibet or Prachanda from Nepal, Delhi has welcomed leaders from the neighbourhood taking shelter in India.
    • Negative consequences: There is a dangerous flip side to this positive tradition in the Subcontinent.
    • India has paid a high price for the decision in the early 1980s to train and arm Sri Lankan Tamil rebels.
    • Hope for transcending internal divide: The current crisis in Sri Lanka raised hopes for transcending the internal ethnic divide in the island nation and rebuilding political confidence between Colombo and Delhi.
    • Material and financial support to Sri Lanka: Delhi’s unstinting support — both material and financial — for Colombo during this unprecedented economic and political crisis has generated much goodwill in Sri Lanka.

    Relations with Nepal and role of cultural ties

    • Possibilities in cultural geography: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Lumbini, the birthplace of Lord Buddha in Nepal, highlights the immense possibilities of cultural geography in reshaping the Subcontinent’s regional relations.
    • The idea of a “Buddhist circuit” connecting the various pilgrimage sites across the India-Nepal border has been around for a long time.
    • India and Nepal have come together in developing the Buddhist circuit.
    • Religion and culture are deeply interconnected in South Asia.
    • Developing all religious pilgrimage sites across the region, and improving the transborder access to them could not only improve tourist revenues of all the South Asian nations, but could also have a calming effect on the troubled political relations
    • That China has built a new airport near Lumbini and Modi is avoiding it points to the turbulent triangular dynamic between Delhi, Kathmandu, and Beijing.
    • Revitalising the shared cultural geography inevitably involves better management of economic geography.
    • Infrastructure development on Indian side: The last few years have seen the Indian government step up on infrastructure development on the Indian side and accelerate transborder transport and energy connectivity in the eastern subcontinent.

    Recent trends in India-Pakistan relations

    • Cultural ties: Despite their frozen bilateral political relationship, Delhi and Islamabad had agreed to open the Kartarpur corridor at the end of 2019 across their militarised Punjab border.
    • There is much more to be done on reconnecting the Subcontinent’s sacred geographies — including the Ramayana trail and Sufi shrines.
    • While parts of the region are aligning their policies with the geographic imperative, Pakistan would seem to be an exception.
    • Ignoring the geographic imperative: Given the depth of its macro economic crisis and massive inflation, one might have thought Pakistan would want to expand trade ties with India in its own economic interest.
    • But Pakistan’s politics are hard-wired against the logic of geography.
    • Delhi had little reason to believe that Pakistan’s new government can alter its self-defeating policy towards India.
    • But it must continue to bet that the geographic imperative will eventually prevail over Islamabad’s policies.

    Conclusion

    Realists might want to argue that current trends in the Subcontinent point to India’s growing agency in shaping its neighbourhood and that Pakistan will not forever remain an exception. For Delhi, the policy question is whether India can do something to hasten the inevitable change in Pakistan.

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  • US to host ASEAN leaders

    US President Joe Biden will host leaders and top officials of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Washington DC.

    About ASEAN

    • ASEAN is a political and economic union of 10 member states in Southeast Asia.
    • It brings together ten Southeast Asian states – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam – into one organisation.
    • It was established on 8th August 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand with the signing of the Bangkok Declaration by the founding fathers of the countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines.
    • The preceding organisation was the Association of Southeast Asia (ASA) comprising of Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia.
    • Five other nations joined the ASEAN in subsequent years making the current membership to ten countries.

    Why in news?

    (A) Political purpose

    • ASEAN’s ‘Five Point Consensus’ to end the turmoil in Myanmar has not progressed since it was released in April last year.
    • In addition to discussing Myanmar, leaders are also expected to discuss Ukraine as well as regional issues.

    (B) Economic purpose

    • It is expected to discuss his administration’s economic plan for the region — the Indo Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) — during this week’s summit.
    • The framework will structure cooperation across several pillars from infrastructure and supply chains to taxation.

    What is Indo Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)?

    • The proposed IPEF is the Biden administration’s answer to questions about the United States’ economic commitment to the vital Indo-Pacific region.
    • IPEF will consist of four “pillars” of work:
    1. Fair and resilient trade (encompassing seven subtopics, including labor, environmental, and digital standards)
    2. Supply chain resilience
    3. Infrastructure, clean energy, and decarbonization
    4. Tax and anti-corruption

     

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