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Subject: Economics

  • Bank frauds

    Context

    The biggest banking scam in India has come to the forefront; in this case, DHFL has hoodwinked a consortium of banks driven by the Union Bank of India to the tune of ₹35,000 crore through financial misrepresentation.

    How scams affect economy

    • The banking system of any country is the backbone of its economy.
    • Excessive losses to banks affect every person in the country because the amounts deposited in banks belong to the citizens of the country.
    • The NPAs that banks incur are mainly due to bad loans and scams.
    • The data by the RBI also show that one of the fundamental problems in the way of the development of banking in India is on account of rising bank scams and the costs consequently forced on the framework.
    • Strangely, as in a Global Banking Fraud survey (KPMG), the issue is not just for India alone; it is a worldwide issue.

    Reasons for scams

    •  Frauds in the banking industry can be grouped under four classifications: ‘Management’, ‘Outsider’, ‘Insider’ and ‘Insider and Outsider’ (jointly).
    • Operational failures: All scams, whether interior or outside, are results of operational failures.
    • Limited asset monitoring: Research by Deloitte has shown that limited asset monitoring after disbursement (38%) was the foremost reason behind stressed assets and insufficient due diligence before disbursement (21%) was among the major factors for these NPAs.
    • Poor bank corporate governance: A study by the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore has shown that poor bank corporate governance is the cause behind rising bank scams and NPAs.

    The problems of high NPA

    • In a Financial Stability Report released by the RBI in December 2021, there is a projection of the gross NPAs of banks rising from 6.9% in September 2021 to 8.1% of total assets by September 2022 (under a baseline scenario) and to 9.5% under a severe stress scenario.
    • A high NPA also reduces the net interest margin of banks besides increasing their operating cost; these banks meet this cost by increasing the convenience fee from their small customers on a day-to-day basis.

    Suggestions

    • Banks have to exercise due diligence and caution while offering funds.
    • Regulation and control of CAs: The regulation and the control of chartered accountants is a very important step to reduce non-performing assets of banks.
    • Banks should be cautious while lending to Indian companies that have taken huge loans abroad.
    • Tightening audit system: There is also an urgent need to tighten the internal and external audit systems of banks.
    • Fast rotation of employees: The fast rotation of employees of a bank’s loan department is very important.
    • Public sector banks should set up an internal rating agency for rigorous evaluation of large projects before sanctioning loans.
    • Effective MIS: Further, there is a need to implement an effective Management Information System (MIS) to monitor early warning signals about business projects.
    • CIBIL score of the borrower: The CIBIL score of the borrower (formerly the Credit Information Bureau (India) Limited) should be evaluated by the bank concerned and RBI officials.
    • Use of AI: Financial fraud can be reduced to a great extent by the use of artificial intelligence (AI) to monitor financial transactions.
    • Improve loan recovery process: Rather than having to continuously write off the bad loans of large corporates, India has to improve its loan recovery processes and establish an early warning system in the post-disbursement phase.
    • Risk assessment: Banks need to carry out fraud risk assessments every quarter.
    • Only establishment of National Asset Reconstruction Company Ltd. (NARCL) or the ‘bad bank’ is not a real solution.
    • These measures can help only after a loan is bad but not the process of a loan going bad.

    Conclusion

    While the Government of India and the RBI have taken several measures to try and resolve the issue of scams in the banking industry, the fact is that there is still a long way to go.

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  • India must prepare for 5G technology

    Context

    5G technology is going to make inroads into the country very soon.

    Making Digital India project successful

    • With over 117 crore telecom users and more than 82 crore internet subscribers, India is one of the fastest-growing markets for digital consumers.
    • A 2019 Mckinsey study rated India as the second-fastest digitising economy. 
    • Internet connectivity is critical for making the Digital India project inclusive, and widespread use of optical fibre in the remotest corners of the country is vital to ensure that no one is left behind in this endeavour.

    Digital infrastructure for 5G

    • Digital infrastructure, which seamlessly integrates with physical and traditional infrastructure, is critical to India’s growth story and the country’s thrust towards self-reliance.
    • Networking equipment that relies on optical fibre and other semiconductor-based device ecosystems are at the heart of building the infrastructure that will be needed when the country takes the next step in its digital journey.
    • The government has taken several measures to build the next generation of digital infrastructure.
    • A basic requirement of 5G will be data transmission networks.
    • Optical fibre is the backbone of the digital infrastructure required for this purpose — the data is transmitted by light pulses travelling through long strands of thin fibre.

    Optical fibre industry in India

    • In the last 10 years, domestic manufacturers invested more than Rs 5,000 crore in optical fibre industry, which has generated direct and indirect employment for around 4 lakh individuals.
    • Exports from India: India exported optical fibre worth $138 million to over 132 countries between April 2020 and November 2021.
    • India’s annual optic fibre manufacturing capacity is around 100 million fibre km (fkm) and the domestic consumption is around 46 million fkm. Indian optical fibre cable consumption is predicted to increase to 33 million fkm by 2026 from 17 million fkm in 2021.
    • A little more than 30 per cent of mobile towers have fibre connectivity; this needs to be scaled up to at least 80 per cent.

    Unfair competition from cheap imports

    • India’s optical fibre industry has also seen unfair competition from cheap imports from China, Indonesia and South Korea.
    • These countries have been dumping their products in India at rates lower than the market price.
    • What is dumping? The World Trade Organisation defines dumping as “an international price discrimination situation in which the price of a product offered in the importing country is less than the price of that product in the exporting country’s market”.
    • Way ahead: Imposing anti-dumping duties is one way of protecting the domestic industry.
    • The Directorate General of Trade Remedies has recently begun investigations against optical fibre imports.

    Suggestions

    • India needs to invest in R&D, offer production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes to support indigenous high-tech manufacturing and develop intellectual property in critical aspects of digital connectivity.

    Conclusion

    The need of the hour is to unlock the full potential of India’s optical fibre industry and enable India to emerge as a major manufacturing and technology hub while achieving atmanirbharta in its 5G journey.

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    Back2Basics: About optical fibre

    • Fiber optics, also spelled fibre optics, the science of transmitting data, voice, and images by the passage of light through thin, transparent fibers.
    • In telecommunications, fiber optic technology has virtually replaced copper wire in long-distance telephone lines, and it is used to link computers within local area networks.
    • Fibre optics is also the basis of the fiberscopes used in examining internal parts of the body (endoscopy) or inspecting the interiors of manufactured structural products.
    •  Through a process known as total internal reflection, light rays beamed into the fibre can propagate within the core for great distances with remarkably little attenuation or reduction in intensity.

  • States, freebies and the costs of fiscal profligacy

    Context

    Many states are pursuing the freebie culture, which raises several questions.

    About freebies

    • Why do governments give freebies? The obvious motivation for States in expanding freebies is to use the exchequer to build vote banks.
    • Electoral calculations tempt them to place short-term gains ahead of long-term sustainability.
    • Case in which it is necessary? A certain amount of spending on transfer payments to provide safety nets to the most vulnerable segments of the population is not only desirable but even necessary.
    • What is the problem? The problem arises when such transfer payments become the main plank of discretionary expenditure, the spending is financed by debt, and the debt is concealed to circumvent the FRBM targets.
    • Opportunity cost: The more States spend on transfer payments, the less they have for spending on physical infrastructure such as, for example, power and roads, and on social infrastructure such as education and health, which can potentially improve growth and generate jobs.

    Questioning the logic of freebie culture

    • Sustainability: Is borrowing and spending on freebies sustainable?
    • Best use: Is this the best possible use of public money?
    • Opportunity cost: What is their opportunity cost — what is it that the public are collectively giving up so that the government can fund these payments?
    • Checks and balances: Should not there be some checks on how much can be spent on them?

    Where should government spend the borrowed money?

    • Ideally, governments should use borrowed money to invest in physical and social infrastructure that will generate higher growth, and thereby higher revenues in the future so that the debt pays for itself.
    • On the other hand, if governments spend the loan money on populist giveaways that generate no additional revenue, the growing debt burden will eventually implode.

    But what is the problem with freebies if states are confirming to the FRBM targets?

    • Any analysis of State Budgets by the Reserve Bank of India shows that State finances are in good health and that all of them are conforming to the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) targets.
    • This is a misleading picture.
    • Off budget borrowing: Much of the borrowing that funds these freebies happens off budget, beyond the pale of FRBM tracking.
    • The typical modus operandi for States has been to borrow on the books of their public enterprises, in some cases by pledging future revenues of the State as guarantee.
    • Effectively, the burden of debt is on the State exchequer, albeit well concealed.
    • The Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) had in fact pointed out that in respect of some States.
    • Huget cost: The costs of fiscal profligacy at the State level can be huge.
    • The amount States borrow collectively every year is comparable in size to the Centre’s borrowing which implies that their fiscal stance has as much impact on our macroeconomic stability as does that of the Centre.
    • The need, therefore, for instituting more effective checks that can make wayward States fall in line is compelling.

    What are the institutional checks and balances? What are the reasons of their failure?

    • 1] Legislature and opposition: In theory, the first line of defence has to be the legislature, in particular the Opposition, whose responsibility it is to keep the Government in line.
    • But the Opposition does not dare speak up for fear of forfeiting vote banks that are at the end of these freebies.
    • 2] Lag in CAG reports: Another constitutional check is the CAG audit which should enforce transparency and accountability.
    • In practice, it has lost its teeth since audit reports necessarily come with a lag, by when political interest has typically shifted to other hot button issues.
    • 3] The market: The market is another potential check.
    • It can signal the health or otherwise of State finances by pricing the loans floated by different State governments differently, reflecting their debt sustainability.
    • But in practice this too fails since the market perceives all State borrowing as implicitly guaranteed by the Centre, never mind that there is no such guarantee in reality.

    Suggestions

    • 1] Amend FRBM Act for complete disclosure: First, the FRBM Acts of the Centre as well as States need to be amended to enforce a more complete disclosure of the liabilities on their exchequers.
    • Even under the current FRBM provisions, governments are mandated to disclose their contingent liabilities, but that disclosure is restricted to liabilities for which they have extended an explicit guarantee.
    • The provision should be expanded to cover all liabilities whose servicing obligation falls on the Budget, or could potentially fall on the Budget, regardless of any guarantee.
    • 2] Centre should impose conditionalities: Under the Constitution, States are required to take the Centre’s permission when they borrow.
    • The Centre should not hesitate to impose conditionalities on wayward States when it accords such permission.
    • 3] Use of financial emergency provision: There is a provision in the Constitution of India which allows the President to declare a financial emergency in any State if s/he is satisfied that financial stability is threatened.
    • This provision has never been invoked so far for fear that this will turn into a political weapon.
    • But the provision is there in the Constitution for a reason.
    • After all, the root cause of fiscal irresponsibility is the lure of electoral nirvana. It will stop only if the political leadership fears punishment.
    • 4] Course correction by the Centre: The Centre itself has not been a beacon of virtue when it comes to fiscal responsibility and transparency.
    • To its credit, it has embarked on course correction over the last few years.
    • It should complete that task in order to command the moral authority to enforce good fiscal behaviour on the part of States.

    Conclusion

    The state governments, as well as the Central government, need to avoid the freebies that harm financial health and cause long-term harm. For that, there is a need to implement the suggestions mentioned above.

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    Back2Basics: FRBM Act

    • The FRBM is an act of the parliament that set targets for the Government of India to establish financial discipline, improve the management of public funds, strengthen fiscal prudence and reduce its fiscal deficits.
    • It was first introduced in the parliament of India in the year 2000 by Vajpayee Government for providing legal backing to the fiscal discipline to be institutionalized in the country.
    • Subsequently, the FRBM Act was passed in the year 2003.

  • RBI sets up system to settle International Trade in Rupees

    RBI has decided to put in place an additional arrangement of international trade for invoicing, payment, and settlement of exports / imports in INR.

    • Banks acting as authorised dealers for such transactions would have to take prior approval from the regulator to facilitate this.
    • All exports and imports under the invoicing arrangement may be denominated and invoiced in Rupee.
    • Exchange rate between the currencies of the two trading partner countries may be market determined.
    • Exporters and importers can now use a Special Vostro Account linked to the correspondent bank of the partner country for receipts and payments denominated in rupees.
    • These accounts can be used for payments for projects and investments, import or export advance flow management, and investment in Treasury Bills subject to Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999 (FEMA).
    • Also, the bank guarantee, setting-off export receivables, advance against exports, use of surplus balance, approval process, documentation, etc., related aspects would be covered under FEMA rules.

    Nostro and Vostro Accounts

    • Nostro and vostro are terms used to describe the same bank account; the terms are used when one bank has another bank’s money on deposit.
    • They are used to differentiate between the two sets of accounting records kept by each bank.
    • Nostro comes from the Latin word for “ours,” as in “our money that is on deposit at your bank.”
    • Vostro means “yours,” as in “your money that is on deposit at our bank.”

    Why such move?

    • The rupee is at a historic low against the dollar.
    • The mechanism is meant to facilitate trade with countries under sanction.
    • Payments had become a pain point for exporters immediately after the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, especially after Russia was cut off from the SWIFT payment gateway.
    • As a result of the trade facilitation mechanism, we see easing of payment issues with Russia.
    • The move would also reduce the risk of forex fluctuation specially looking at the Euro-rupee parity.
    • We see this as a first step towards 100% convertibility of rupee.
    • It will also help stabilize rupee.

    What does the change mean for exports?

    • Several countries including Sri Lanka and some in Africa and Latin America are facing forex shortage.
    • As such, the new mechanism will help India promote its exports.
    • It will also help buy discounted crude oil from Russia, which now accounts for 10% of all imported crude.

    Will the move help narrow trade deficit?

    • The gap between India’s exports and imports widened to record highs.
    • This puts pressure on the current account deficit, which some economists estimate would nearly double to more than 3% of GDP in FY23.
    • RBI’s decision may not benefit the external account immediately, but over the medium term, demand for dollars may come down.
    • This is partly because opening of new vostro accounts between banks may take some time.

    Back2Basics: Currency Convertibility

    • Convertibility is the ease with which a country’s currency can be converted into gold or another currency through global exchanges.
    • It indicates the extent to which the regulations allow inflow and outflow of capital to and from the country.
    • Currencies that aren’t fully convertible, on the other hand, are generally difficult to convert into other currencies.
    • Having a convertible currency allows a government to pay for goods and services in a currency that may not be the buyer’s own.

    Convertibility of Rupee

    • In order to face the serious current account deficit in the balance of payments, the Government of India introduced the partial convertibility of rupee from March 1, 1992.
    • This was an inevitable move for the expeditious integration of Indian economy with that of the world.
    • Under this system, 60 per cent of the exchange earnings were convertible in rupees at market-determined exchange rate and the remaining 40 per cent were at the officially determined exchange rate.
    • Current account convertibility relates to the removal of restrictions on payments relating to the international exchange of goals, services and factor incomes.
    • Capital account convertibility refers to a similar liberalization of a country’s capital transactions such as loans and investment, both short term and long term.

     

    A bit difficult, but pls take an effort to try this PYQ from CSP 2020:

    If another global financial crisis happens in the near future, which of the following actions/policies are most likely to give some immunity to India?

    1. Not depending on short-term foreign borrowings
    2. Opening up to more foreign banks
    3. Maintaining full capital account convertibility

    Select the correct answer using the code given below:

    (a) 1 only

    (b) 1 and 2 only

    (c) 2 only

    (d) 1, 2 and 3

     

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”3pp3us2fwp” question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here. Detailed explanation will be provided.[/wpdiscuz-feedback]

     

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  • As GST compensation ends, state governments need to be provided certainty of revenues

    Context

    The five-year transition period after the adoption of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on July 1, 2017, came to an end on June 30, 2022. With this, the era of GST compensation that the state governments were entitled to has ended.

    High estimated loan issuance

    • Many state governments have asked for the compensation period to be extended by a few years.
    • To tangibly assess the near-term outlook for state finances, we have to rely on the states’ own estimates for their market borrowing requirements for the second quarter of 2022-23.
    • The indicative calendar of market borrowings by 23 state governments and two Union territories for the second quarter has pegged their total state development loan issuance — the primary source of financing state government deficits — at Rs 2.1 trillion.
    •  This projected issuance is 29 per cent higher than the same period last year, and at an eight-quarter high.
    • This high level of issuance projected by states reflects concerns that some of them might rightfully have regarding the uncertainty of their cash flows in the post-GST compensation era.
    • High dependence on GST compensation: Of these 23 states, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab and Gujarat have indicated large increases in borrowings.
    • Most of these states have an above-average dependence on GST compensation.

    Implications of discontinuation of GST compensation

    • Alter the revenue compensation: The discontinuation of the GST compensation flows would alter the revenue composition of some states adversely, particularly those with a relatively larger share of such receipts in their overall revenue streams.
    • Increase in debt level: To offset a portion of the associated revenue loss, such states are likely to enhance their borrowings and/or to undertake some expenditure adjustments in the quarters ahead.

    Adjustment of borrowing limit of the States by the Centre

    • At the time of communicating to states their annual borrowing limits for the ongoing year, we understand that the Centre had informed state governments that their off-budget borrowings for the past two years (2020-21 and 2021-22) would be adjusted from their borrowing ceiling this year.
    • Data on off-budget borrowing: It appears that the calculation of the adjusted borrowing limit required the submission of detailed data by the state governments related to their off-budget borrowings for the last two fiscal years, followed by a thorough assessment of the same by the Centre.

    Need for early step up in tax-devolution

    • On the whole, though, states appear to have entered the year with a comfortable cash flow position.
    • This follows from the back-ended release of the tax devolution to states for 2021-22 — nearly half of the full-year amount was released in the fourth quarter.
    • Additionally, the total amount was also well above the revised estimate, providing an unexpected gain to states.
    • This may have allowed them to temporarily withstand the changes related to their borrowing permission.
    • Subsequently, the release of the GST compensation grant of Rs 869 billion for several months in May is likely to have further eased their cash flows.
    • If the government does decide to step-up tax devolution to the states in the near term, instead of back-ending it as was done in the last year, it may reduce the size of state borrowings in the second quarter.
    • But more significantly, such revenue certainty, despite the end of the GST compensation era, may embolden states to ringfence their capital spending, providing a positive impulse to the economy.

    Conclusion

    The discontinuation of the GST compensation flows would alter the revenue composition of some states adversely, tax devolution to the states in the near term could cushion the blow of the discontinuation.

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    Back2Basics: Compensation under GST regime

    • The adoption of the GST was made possible by the States ceding almost all their powers to impose local-level indirect taxes and agreeing to let the prevailing multiplicity of imposts be subsumed under the GST.
    • While the States would receive the SGST (State GST) component of the GST, and a share of the IGST (Integrated GST), it was agreed that revenue shortfalls arising from the transition to the new indirect taxes regime would be made good from a pooled GST Compensation Fund for a period of five years that is set to end in 2022.
    • This corpus in turn is funded through a compensation cess that is levied on so-called ‘demerit’ goods.
    • This GST Compensation Cess or GST Cess is levied on five products considered to be ‘sin’ or luxury as mentioned in the GST (Compensation to States) Act, 2017 and includes items such as- Pan Masala, Tobacco, and Automobiles etc.

  • Impact of GST on inflation

    Context

    The monumental indirect tax reform, the Goods and Services Tax (GST), has completed five years in existence. The article analyses the impact of GST on inflation.

    Background

    • Before the implementation, it was said that it would be a boon to the economy in terms of higher revenue buoyancy, lower inflation, higher revenue, higher growth etc.
    • During the 12 months preceding GST implementation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was 3.66%, while it increased to 4.24% post-GST in the next 12 months.
    •  A similar pattern was observed in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada.
    • An Australian Competition and Consumer Commission study showed that GST initially increases inflation.

    How GST can affect prices

    • In theory, implementing GST should not lead to a change in overall inflation.
    • The revenue-neutral rate (RNR) is calculated so that it would not cause higher inflation.
    • But revenue neutrality does not mean that prices would not go up or down in the economy.
    • This is because the weight of goods in the consumption basket and their contributions to indirect tax collections are not the same.
    • Importantly, the effect of GST on the prices of certain goods and services depends on the structure and design of taxation.
    • The RBI, in a 2017 report, showed that about half of the groups of items that GST covers are not in the CPI basket.
    • So, the effect of GST on prices was expected to be small.
    • Finally, prior to the GST implementation, it was expected that prices would go down because GST harmonises indirect tax rates and eliminates the cascading effect.
    • Thus, whether GST has any effect depends on how different factors affect each other.

    So, how can we ascertain whether GST has had an inflationary impact in India?

    • Inflationary impact can be assessed by turning to statistical modeling?
    • Statistical results provide us with an interesting picture of the impact of GST on price levels.
    • First, we look into the overall price index (CPI).
    • Here, the actual CPI growth in the study period is 4.61%, whereas the counterfactual estimate of inflation is 3.24%.
    • This implies that without the GST implementation, the CPI inflation would have been 3.24%.
    • This indicates that with the implementation of GST, CPI increased by 1.37 percentage points (pp).
    • Second,  CPI core inflation (which strips off volatile components such as food and fuel from the headline inflation) increased by 1.04pp in the post-GST period (actual inflation was 4.57%, counterfactual inflation was 3.53%).
    • Third, GST is found to have a significant positive impact on inflation of commodity groups such as paan, tobacco and intoxicants, clothing.

    What explains rise in inflation post GST?

    • Rise in tax rate of some goods: The rise in inflation post-GST implementation could be due to the rise in the tax rate of some goods and services, the inclusion of business activities that were not taxed earlier, or the market structure.
    • The average weighted GST rate was designed to be neutral, so it might not have contributed much to the observed higher inflation.
    • Coverage of business activities under GST not taxed earlier would result in higher prices since the firms would pass on the cost to the consumers.
    • Market power: There is another possibility which would cause result inflation after the GST implementation.
    • As Joseph Stiglitz opined, rising market power is bad for the economy as it raises economic inefficiency and inequality and lowers the economy’s resiliency.
    • Further, taking advantage of market power, it is possible that most firms would have passed the taxes to end consumers.
    • With the existence of market power, firms’ price includes a significant mark-up over marginal costs.
    • Some results point out the possibility of profiteering in select segments after GST.
    • To pre-empt this possibility, the government set up National Anti-profiteering Authority (NAA).

    Way forward

    •  NAA should monitor the prices of critical or essential goods and services to see the price impact of GST.
    • Similarly, the Competition Commission of India should observe anti-competitive producer behaviour that hurts consumers via excessive price increases.
    • These measures may ensure that producers do not take advantage of the GST.

    Conclusion

    Statistical results suggest that GST implementation has resulted in a decrease in inflation of food items and raised inflation of non-food items.

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  • Why the criticisms of the RBI are misplaced

    Context

    All emerging markets (EMs), including India, are facing outflows of foreign portfolio investment as the US Fed tightens.

    Inflatioon and exchange rate

    • Exchange rate as response to capital flow: Canonical inflation targeting wants exchange rates to float as the correct response to capital flows.
    • Policy should respond to exchange rate fluctuations only after they affect inflation or output.
    • Any interest rate defence of the exchange rate would reduce the focus on inflation.
    • But most EMs intervene in foreign exchange (FX) markets in order to reduce volatility.
    • A research paper by Edward F Buffie and co-authors indicate that  FX intervention greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting.
    • Two instruments for two targets work better than trying to do everything through the interest rate.
    • Excess depreciation of currency can raise inflation.
    • Other researches such as from the IMF, argues for the use of prudential capital flow management techniques and finds reserve accumulation and its use reduces risks and crises in EMs.

    Policies followed by RBI to reduce volatility

    • Not fully convertible: RBI’s sequenced approach to capital account convertibility, where, for example, debt inflows are only allowed as a percentage of domestic markets, saved it from the kind of interest rate volatility Indonesia experienced during the taper tantrum and is helping it now.
    • More liberalisation measures can be taken when needed.
    • India’s large foreign exchange reserves have allowed rupee depreciation to be lower than most other countries as the dollar strengthens.
    • The cost of holding foreign exchange: There are costs of holding large reserves and of too much intervention.
    • The central bank ends up supporting the US and not its own government borrowing and it sacrifices interest income.
    • But holding reserves and then not using them when required is the most costly.
    • Again use of multiple instruments can mitigate over-reliance on intervention.
    • Much research and recent experience suggest that all available instruments should be used to moderate volatility in nominal variables.

    Why increasing interest rates will be ineffective in reducing capital outflow

    •  A common suggestion is to raise policy rates to maintain a historical gap with US Fed rates.
    • But such an interest rate defence did not prevent outflows during the taper tantrum or in 2018 and only triggered a slowdown.
    • It forgets that interest-sensitive flows are only about 8 per cent of India’s foreign liabilities.
    • There have been no debt outflows in 2022 despite a narrowing interest differential.
    • Equity outflows also seem to be tapering.
    • Monetary tightening that dampens expectations of growth, induces more outflows as country risk-premiums rise.

    Issues with less intervention

    • Some want less intervention and more rupee depreciation in order to improve the current account deficit.
    •  But less intervention can lead to a chaotic fall and jittery markets as we saw in 2011.
    • It is best for policy to prevent over-depreciation due to global risks.
    • After about 4 per cent nominal depreciation, India’s real effective exchange rate against a basket of 40 countries is approaching 100.
    • That implies the real exchange rate is too depreciated since India has had relatively more structural reform and productivity growth.
    • Future corrections toward equilibrium will require a rise of the rupee.
    • High oil prices are a risk for India’s balance of payments, but multiple types of adjustments have the best chance of succeeding.

    Why sometimes policy changes are introduced as surprise?

    • Market participants want clear communication and no surprises for markets.
    • Forward guidance is an important part of inflation targeting. But when markets tend to overreact and are influenced more by the US than by Indian policy, the best way to introduce a policy change may be by surprise.
    • Thus markets had priced in excessive rate hikes after the US Fed began tightening.
    • The steep surprise hike in Indian repo rates prevented additional rate hikes from being priced in as domestic rate-rising began.

    Conclusion

    Inflation targeting is an art that requires skill, attention to context and an open mind.

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    Back2Basics: Real Effective Exchange Rate

    • The real effective exchange rate (REER) is the weighted average of a country’s currency in relation to an index or basket of other major currencies.
    • The weights are determined by comparing the relative trade balance of a country’s currency against that of each country in the index.
    • An increase in a nation’s REER is an indication that its exports are becoming more expensive and its imports are becoming cheaper.
    • It is losing its trade competitiveness.

  • Draft Development of Enterprise and Service Hubs (DESH) Bill

    The Centre plans to table the Development of Enterprise and Service Hubs (DESH) Bill in the monsoon session of the Parliament, which will overhaul the special economic zones (SEZ) legislation.

    What are SEZs?

    • A Special Economic Zone (SEZ) is an area in which the business and trade laws are different from the rest of the country.
    • SEZs are located within a country’s national borders, and their aims include increasing trade balance, employment, increased investment, job creation, and effective administration.
    • Additionally, companies may be offered tax holidays, where upon establishing themselves in a zone, they are granted a period of lower taxation.

    SEZs in India

    • The SEZ policy in India first came into inception on April 1, 2000.
    • The prime objective was to enhance foreign investment and provide an internationally competitive and hassle-free environment for exports.
    • The idea was to promote exports from the country and realize the need for a level playing field must be made available to the domestic enterprises and manufacturers to be competitive globally.
    • Subsequently, the SEZ Act 2005, was enacted to provide the umbrella legal framework, covering all important legal and regulatory aspects of SEZ development as well as for units operating in SEZs.
    • SEZ units used to enjoy 100% income tax exemption on export income for the first five years, 50% for the next five years, and 50% of the ploughed back export profit for another five years

    Why replace the existing SEZ Act?

    • The World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement panel has ruled that India’s export-related schemes, including the SEZ Scheme, were inconsistent with WTO rules.
    • India has been accused of giving tax benefits to exports through SEZs.
    • Countries aren’t allowed to directly subsidize exports as it can distort market prices.
    • SEZs also started losing their allure after the introduction of minimum alternate tax and a sunset clause to remove tax sops.

    How is the DESH legislation different?

    • The DESH legislation goes beyond promoting exports.
    • It has a much wider objective of boosting domestic manufacturing and job creation through ‘development hubs’.
    • These hubs will no longer be required to be net foreign exchange positive cumulatively in five years (i.e, export more than they import) as mandated in the SEZ regime.
    • They will be allowed to sell in the domestic area more easily. The hubs will, therefore, be WTO-compliant.
    • DESH legislation also provides for an online single-window portal for the grant of time-bound approvals for establishing and operating the hubs.

    Will there be any tax benefits at these hubs?

    • It’s not clear yet.
    • However, the draft Bill does state that states and the Centre will be allowed to give further incentives in the form of tax rebates, incentives, exemptions, and duty drawbacks.
    • Subsidy schemes may be offered for goods and services at these hubs.
    • States and the Centre may take fresh measures to speed up clearances and simplify compliance.

    Will it be easier to sell in the domestic market?

    • Companies can sell in the domestic market with duties only to be paid on the imported inputs and raw materials instead of the final product.
    • In the current SEZ regime, duty is paid on the final product when a product is sold in the domestic market.
    • Besides, there is no mandatory payment requirement in forex, unlike in the case of SEZs.
    • However, the government may impose an equalization levy on goods or services supplied to the domestic market to bring taxes at par with those provided by units outside

    What role will states play in DESH?

    • DESH is expected to play a larger role, definitely.
    • In the SEZ regime, most decisions were made by the commerce department at the Centre.
    • Now, states will be able to participate and even directly send recommendations for development hubs to a central board for approval.
    • Besides, state boards would be set up to oversee the functioning of the hubs.
    • They would have the powers to approve imports or procurement of goods, and monitor the utilization of goods or services, warehousing, and trading in the development hub.

    Way forward

    • If indeed India needs the special hubs, the govt must address the critical gaps in existing SEZ law through the DESH bill and it must be thought through before bringing it to the Parliament.
    • Effective implementation of the law could act as a lever to India’s growth.

     

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  • Aviation sector in India: Issue and Challenges

    What is the issue?

    Policymakers ought to recognise the country’s untapped potential and work towards dismantling the many hurdles.

    What is the significance of aviation sector?

    India is the world’s third-largest market in aviation sector.

    • Aviation is integral to equitable economic growth, for a country to be globally competitive and to change the situation of poverty and unemployment.
    • Passenger airlines and air cargo overcome geography and connect remote areas that are alienated from the mainstream.
    • They can drive investment deep into the country, giving people access to markets.
    • They also boost tourism, which is the largest employment generator in the unorganised sector.

    What is the status of aviation sector in India?

    • Pre-economic reform period– India had only two airlines – Air India and Indian Airlines.
    • Post 1991 reforms– The reforms that opened up the aviation sector in 1991 and ended the licence raj and the monopoly of Indian Airlines and Air India changed the sector.
    • Numerous private sector airlines were given the licence to fly, but Jet Airways and Sahara, survived, resulting in cartelisation.
    • The concept of low cost airlines in India took shape in 2003 which overcame the cost barrier.
    • Sadly, Indian aviation has become ‘the sick man of India’.

    What are the barriers in Indian aviation sector?

    • Per capita consumption of air tickets – The number of Indians who buy air tickets in 2019 is 140 million of which 35 million to 40 million frequent flyers form the bulk of ticket buyers.
    • It translates to less than 4% of the population who can afford air travel, placing India just alongside some poorer African countries, in terms of the per capita consumption of air tickets.
    • Factors affecting the growth of aviation sector– The growth of aviation has been affected by
      • Choking regulations
      • Tough entry barriers for new entrants
      • High fuel prices on account of sky high taxes
      • Inefficient public sector airports that pave the way for monopoly airports
    • Frequent and knee-jerk changes point to the absence of a long-term visionary strategic policy for the entire gamut of sectors in aviation.

    How efficient are government schemes in the development of the airline sector?

    • Boosting entrepreneurship- Start-up India initiative was started with the objective of supporting entrepreneurs, building a robust startup ecosystem and transforming India into a country of job creators.
    • Regional connectivity– Ude Desh Ka Aam Naagrik (UDAN) scheme aims to connect small and medium cities with big cities through air service.
    • Low cost airlines– UDAN plans to connect the underserved airports to key airports through flights that will cost Rs 2,500 for per hour flight.
    • Comprehensive development– The National Civil Aviation Policy 2016 aims to take flying to the masses and covers 22 areas of the Civil Aviation sector.

    What reforms are needed?

    • Reforms in all sectors– It is critical to understand that for passenger airlines to grow, there have to be reforms in all areas of aviation – air cargo, airports, aviation fuel taxes and Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO).
    • Updated laws– India’s Aircraft Act, 1934 and Aircraft Rules, 1937 need to be updated to keep pace with modern technology in aerospace, increasing costs to the industry and ultimately affecting passenger growth.
    • Overhaul DGCA – India’s statutory regulatory authority, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), needs to be modernised, well-staffed, motivated and incentivized.
    • Need for aviation professionals– There need to be aviation professionals in charge rather than the ubiquitous bureaucrat from the Indian Administrative Service.

  • What are Critical Minerals?

    India and Australia have decided to strengthen their partnership in the field of projects and supply chains for critical minerals.

    What is the news?

    • Australia has confirmed that it would commit A$5.8 million to the three-year India-Australia Critical Minerals Investment Partnership”.

    What are Critical Minerals?

    • Critical minerals are elements that are the building blocks of essential modern-day technologies, and are at risk of supply chain disruptions.
    • These minerals are now used everywhere from making mobile phones, computers to batteries, electric vehicles and green technologies like solar panels and wind turbines.
    • Based on their individual needs and strategic considerations, different countries create their own lists.
    • However, such lists mostly include graphite, lithium, cobalt, rare earths and silicon which is a key mineral for making computer chips, solar panels and batteries.
    • Aerospace, communications and defence industries also rely on several such minerals as they are used in manufacturing fighter jets, drones, radio sets and other critical equipment.

    Why is this resource critical?

    • As countries around the world scale up their transition towards clean energy and digital economy, these critical resources are key to the ecosystem that fuels this change.
    • Any supply shock can severely imperil the economy and strategic autonomy of a country over-dependent on others to procure critical minerals.
    • But these supply risks exist due to rare availability, growing demand and complex processing value chain.
    • Many times the complex supply chain can be disrupted by hostile regimes, or due to politically unstable regions.
    • They are critical as the world is fast shifting from a fossil fuel-intensive to a mineral-intensive energy system.

    What is China ‘threat’?

    • China is the world’s largest producer of 16 critical minerals.
    • China alone is responsible for some 70% and 60% of global production of cobalt and rare earth elements, respectively, in 2019.
    • The level of concentration is even higher for processing operations, where China has a strong presence across the board.
    • China’s share of refining is around 35% for nickel, 50-70% for lithium and cobalt, and nearly 90% for rare earth elements.
    • It also controls cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, from where 70% of this mineral is sourced.
    • In 2010, China suspended rare earth exports to Japan for two months over a territorial dispute.

    What are countries around the world doing about it?

    • US has shifted its focus on expanding domestic mining, production, processing, and recycling of critical minerals and materials.
    • India has set up KABIL or the Khanij Bidesh India Limited to ensure mineral security of the nation.
    • Australia’s Critical Minerals Facilitation Office (CMFO) and KABIL had recently signed an MoU aimed at ensuring reliable supply of critical minerals to India.
    • The UK has unveiled its new Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre to study the future demand for and supply of these minerals.

     

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