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Subject: Economics

  • Count work, not workers

    Context

    India is one of the few countries in the world where women’s work participation rates have fallen sharply — from 29 per cent in 2004-5 to 22 per cent in 2011-12 and to 17 per cent in 2017-18.

    What could be the possible explanations for the decline?

    • No consensus among economists: Trying to explain whether women are choosing to focus on domestic responsibilities or whether they are pushed out of the workforce has become a minor industry among economists.
    • Can the quality of data be the explanation? Strangely, the one explanation we have not looked at is whether the declining quality of economic statistics may account for this trend.
      • Our pride in the statistical system built by PC Mahalanobis is so great that we find it unimaginable that it could fail to provide us with reliable employment data.
      • However, as challenges to economic statistics have begun to emerge in such diverse areas as GDP data and consumption expenditure, perhaps it is time to consider the unimaginable.
      • Issue of data collection: Is the decline in women’s labour force participation real or is it a function of the way in which employment data are collected?

    Anatomy of the decline in participation rates

    • Driven by rural women: The anatomy of the decline in women’s work participation rates shows that it is driven by rural women.
    • Data of the prime working-age group: In the prime working-age group (25-59)-
      • Urban area data: Urban women’s worker to population ratios (WPR) fell from 28 per cent to 25 per cent between 2004-5 and 2011-12, stagnating at 24 per cent in 2017-18.
      • Rural area data: However, compared to these modest changes, rural women’s WPR declined sharply from 58 per cent to 48 per cent and to 32 per cent over the same period.
    • Among rural women, the largest decline seems to have taken place in women categorised as unpaid family helpers — from 28 per cent in 2004-5 to 12 per cent in 2017-18.
      • This alone accounts for more than half of the decline in women’s WPR. The remaining is largely due to a drop of about 9 percentage points in casual labour.
    • In contrast, women counted as focusing solely on domestic duties increased from 21 per cent to 45 per cent.

    What are the explanations for this massive change?

    • Data collection issue: It is the change in our statistical systems that drives these results.
      • Change of workforce collecting data: The questionnaires through which the National Statistical Office (NSO) collects employment data have not changed, but the statistical workforce has, and the surveys that performed reasonably well in the hands of seasoned interviewers are too complex for poorly trained contract data collectors.
    • How data is collected? The National Sample Surveys (NSS) do not have a script that the interviewer reads out. They have schedules that must be completed. The interviewer is trained in concepts to be investigated and then left to fill the schedules to the best of his or her ability.
      • The NSS increasingly relies on contract investigators hired for short periods, who lack
    • Need for redesigning the surveys: Do we need to return to the days of permanent employees or can we design our surveys to overcome errors committed by relatively inexperienced interviewers?
      • A survey design experiment led by Neerad Deshmukh at the NCAER-National Data Innovation Centre provides an intriguing solution.
      • In this experimental survey, interviewers first asked about the primary and secondary activity status of each household member, mimicking the NSS structure.
      • They then asked a series of simple questions that included ones like, “do you cultivate any land?” If yes, “who in your household works on the farm?”
      • Similar questions were asked about livestock ownership and about people caring for the livestock, ownership of petty business and individuals working in these enterprises.
    • What was the result of survey experiment: The results show that the standard NSS-type questions resulted in a WPR of 28 per cent for rural women in the age group 21-59, whereas the detailed activity listing found a WPR of 42 per cent — for the same women.
      • This is an easily implementable module that does not require specialised knowledge on the part of the interviewer.

    Identifying the sectors from which women are excludes

    • Missing the identification of sector: In our concern with ostensibly declining women’s work participation, we have missed out on identifying sectors from which women are excluded and more importantly, in which women are included.
    • What data for men indicate? For rural men, ages 25-59, between 2004-5 and 2017-18, casual labour declined by about 6 percentage points.
      • However, this decline is counterbalanced by regular salaried work which increased by 4 percentage points.
      • Thus, it seems likely that men are exchanging precarious employment with higher-quality jobs.
    • What data for women indicate? In contrast, women’s casual work has declined by 9 percentage points while their regular salaried work increased by a mere 1 percentage point.
      • Moreover, the usual route to success, gaining formal education, has little impact on women’s ability to obtain paid work.
    • The explanation for the disparity: Rural men with a secondary level of education have options like working as a postman, driver or mechanic — few such opportunities are open to women.
      • It is not surprising that women with secondary education have only half the work participation rate compared to their uneducated sisters.
    • Takeaway: The focus on employment for women needs to be on creating high-quality employment rather than getting preoccupied with declining employment rates.

    Conclusion

    It may be time for us to return to the recommendations of ‘Shramshakti: Report of National Commission on Self Employed Women and Women in the Informal Sector’ and develop our data collection processes from the lived experiences of women and count women’s work rather than women workers. Without this, we run the risks of developing misguided policy responses.

  • Short Selling of Stocks

    The stock exchanges have clarified that the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) was not considering any proposal regarding a ban on short selling to curb the ongoing volatility and equity sell-off.

    What is Short Selling?

    • Short-selling allows investors to profit from stocks or other securities when they go down in value.
    • In order to do a short sale, an investor has to borrow the stock or security through their brokerage company from someone who owns it.
    • The investor then sells the stock, retaining the cash proceeds.
    • The short-seller hopes that the price will fall over time, providing an opportunity to buy back the stock at a lower price than the original sale price.
    • Any money left over after buying back the stock is profit to the short-seller.

    When does short-selling makes sense?

    • Most investors own stocks, funds, and other investments that they want to see rise in value.
    • Over time, the stock market has generally gone up, albeit with temporary periods of downward movement along the way.
    • For long-term investors, owning stocks has been a much better bet than short-selling the entire stock market.
    • Sometimes, though, you’ll find an investment that you’re convinced will drop in the short term (as in case of COVID 19 outbreak).
    • In those cases, short-selling can be the easiest way to profit from the misfortunes that a company is experiencing.
    • Even though short-selling is more complicated than simply going out and buying a stock, it can allow making money when others are seeing their investment portfolios shrink.

    The risks of short-selling

    • Short-selling can be profitable when one makes the right call, but it carries greater risks than what ordinary stock investors experience.
    • When we buy a stock, the most we can lose is what you pay for it. If the stock goes to zero, we suffer a complete loss, but will never lose more than that.
    • By contrast, if the stock soars, there’s no limit to the profits one can enjoy. With a short sale, however, that dynamic is reversed.

    Example:

    • For instance, say you sell 100 shares short at a price of $10 per share. Your proceeds from the sale will be $1,000.
    • If the stock goes to zero, you’ll get to keep the full $1,000. However, if the stock soars to $100 per share, you’ll have to spend $10,000 to buy the 100 shares back.
    • That will give you a net loss of $9,000 — nine times as much as the initial proceeds from the short sale.

  • [pib] Employees’ Pension Scheme (Amendment) Scheme, 2020

    The Union Ministry of Labour & Employment has informed about the total enrollments under EPS.

    Employees Pension Scheme (EPS)

    • EPS is a social security scheme that was launched in 1995 and is facilitated by EPFO.
    • The scheme makes provisions for pensions for the employees in the organized sector after retirement at the age of 58 years.
    • Employees who are members of EPFO automatically become eligible for EPS.
    • Both employer and employee contribute 12% of employee’s monthly salary (basic wages plus dearness allowance) to the Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF) scheme.
    • EPF scheme is mandatory for employees who draw a basic wage of Rs. 15,000 per month.
    • Of the employer’s share of 12 %, 8.33 % is diverted towards the EPS.

    Features of the 2020 Amendment

    • EPS pensioners will get normal pension even after getting a reduced pension due to commutation.
    • On retirement, if the employee opts for commutation of pension, a portion is paid as a lump sum based on the commutation factor while on the balance the pension begins.
    • In simple terms, commutation means a lump sum payment in lieu of periodic payments of pension.
    • In such a case, the amount of pension will be lower than the amount of pension without any commutation.
    • The amendment seeks to restore the original amount of pension as per the commutation table, after 15 years equal to the same amount as it would have been without commutation.

  • India can use Yes Bank debacle to chase China in Crypto

    Context

    There’s an opportunity to stabilize the financial system and prevent a rival power from widening its lead.

    The backdrop of YES bank failure time for cryptocurrency

    • Perfect time for cryptocurrency: Confidence in the Indian financial system has been breaking down for some time. Instead of trying to restore trust, it may be time to require less of it — with the help of an official rupee cryptocurrency.
    • The last straw: The collapse of corporate lender Yes Bank Ltd. was the last straw, which failed in slow motion in full view of authorities.
      • Depositors have been assured that their $20 billion-plus in stuck funds will be released after a rescue by the government-controlled State Bank of India.
      • What could be the impact on the sentiment of the people? While that may help prevent widespread panic, even temporarily stopping people from accessing their funds would mean that from now on, not all savings and current accounts will be treated by individuals and businesses as a perfect substitute for cash.

    Why it would be costly and difficult to revive the public faith?

    • It will be both difficult and costly to revive the public’s dwindling faith.
    • Nationalisation not an option: A nuclear option is to nationalize the banks and non-bank finance firms that provide $1.75 trillion in annual funding. Doing so would be a doomed throwback to the late 1960s when India lurched toward stultifying socialist-style state controls.
    • Corruption in banking won’t go away: Similarly, it would be unrealistic to assume that the Yes Bank embarrassment would trigger an improvement in the status quo.
      • Deep crony-capital relationship: The crony-capital relationships between financiers and borrowers in India are steeped in its colonial history.
      • Basel III won’t solve the problem: Putting on the gloss of Basel III capital requirements, which are supposed to make lenders less prone to failure, doesn’t make corruption in banking go away.

    Can cryptocurrency be an answer?

    • It offers hope: Blockchain technology, which the Indian establishment is trying to snuff out in finance, offers hope. Government should consider official crypto to obviate the need for trusted intermediaries, which are in short supply, anyway.
    • China expected to launch digital currency: Before the coronavirus outbreak, China was widely expected to start its own central bank digital currency this year.
      • But India’s need is greater, and its motivation very different from Beijing’s desire to shake the hegemony of the dollar.
    • After the Yes Bank debacle and botched rescue, deposits in India will probably gravitate toward four or five large lenders, whose managers may be emboldened to make risky bets with other people’s money. The remaining banks will struggle for liquidity. A perennially unstable credit delivery network will always be one misstep away from the next blowup. While every country has its share of manias, panics and crashes, to be gripped by absolute financial mistrust every few years is not an environment where growth can flourish.
    • Opportunity to think afresh: Earlier this month, India’s highest court set aside the Reserve Bank of India’s directive that asked banks to not offer services to cryptocurrency traders and exchanges.
      • A legal defeat has provided the opportunity to think afresh.
      • But in parallel, the government is considering a blanket ban on private virtual tokens. The crypto activity could get slammed again.
    • Possibility of misuse: To be sure, one popular use of technology is money laundering.
      • But to kill the industry and send practitioners packing would be to lose out on a valuable innovation at a time when India needs to build on the globally recognized successes of its digital payments industry, which has gained users’ trust just as banks and shadow banks have lost it.

    Implications for deposit in the aftermath of Yes bank debacle

    • Deposits may gravitate towards big banks: After the Yes Bank debacle and botched rescue, deposits in India will probably gravitate toward four or five large lenders, whose managers may be emboldened to make risky bets with other people’s money.
      • The remaining banks will struggle for liquidity.
    • Next blowup: A perennially unstable credit delivery network will always be one misstep away from the next blowup.
    • Impact on growth: While every country has its share of manias, panics and crashes, to be gripped by absolute financial mistrust every few years is not an environment where growth can flourish.

    Possible pathways for central banks digital currency

    • Pathways suggested by BIS: After surveying 17 projects around the world — from Norway and Sweden to China, Cambodia and South Africa — the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has identified four possible pathways for a central bank digital currency.
    • Starting point- Rupee token: Of the pathways suggested by the BIS, a rupee token that doesn’t require the holder to have an account with anyone but has value guaranteed by the Reserve Bank of India could be a starting point.
    • Who should enable the fund transfer? Cryptography (“I know a secret, therefore I own the funds”) rather than an account relationship (“I am who I say I am, therefore I own the funds”) would be used to enable transfers.
      • Later, the RBI can open up the validation of transactions to authorized parties on distributed ledgers.
    • What is the current system and issues with it? Currently, a deposit holder has to rely on everyone from the bank’s management and board to the auditors, the rating firms and the regulator to do their jobs.
      • When they all fail, as in the case of Yes, the bank’s chequebook, ATM card, and online banking password cease to generate liquidity.
      • Deposits stop being the same as cash, even if the state guarantees their safety.
      • It would be far less painful if deposit owners only had to trust the RBI, not as a banking regulator but as a money-printing authority that could never run out of resources to settle its IOUs.

    Conclusion

    • China’s ambition challenge dollars position as a reserve currency: China wants the yuan to take over from the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. A tech-enabled global alternative to the greenback — of the kind that Facebook Inc.’s proposed Libra had threatened to be — would have been an obstacle. Hence, Beijing accelerated its tokenized currency initiative.
    • India should jump the bandwagon: India needs to jump on the bandwagon for self-preservation. If the RBI doesn’t make easy-to-transact digital rupees available and leaves ordinary folks at the mercy of poorly run and supervised banks like Yes, people would rather store their wealth in Silicon Valley-sponsored tokenized money — or Beijing’s digital yuan — whenever they arrive.

  • Growth and the farmer

    Context

    Last month, Montek Singh Ahluwalia’s book, Backstage: The Story Behind India’s High Growth Years, was released. Which tilt in favour of consumer in food policy reduces incentives for farmers, makes it difficult to unlock resources for growth.

    What is covered in the book

    • Besides some very interesting episodes pertaining to author’s personal and professional life, the book is full of useful insights into policy debates and their complexities.
    • At many places, it provides evidence of the impact of these policies.
    • This can be extremely useful as we try to rejuvenate the country’s sluggish economy and abolish poverty.

    Inclusive growth and agriculture

    • Growth in agriculture must for inclusive growth: During the UPA period, from 2004-05 to 2013-14, it was believed that inclusive growth is not feasible unless agriculture grows at about 4 per cent per year while the overall economy grows at about 8 per cent annually.
    • The reason was simple: More than half of the working force at that time was engaged in agriculture and much of their income was derived from agriculture.
      • But many political heavyweights, did not believe that agri-growth could reduce poverty fast enough.
    • Main instrument of agricultural strategy: The main instrument of agricultural strategy was the Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY), which gave more leverage to states to allocate resources within agriculture-related schemes.

    What was the impact of strategy?

    • Agri-growth increased: The agricultural strategy, along with other infrastructure investments in rural areas, had a beneficial impact on agri-growth.
      • Agri-growth increased from 2.9 per cent during the Vajpayee period (1998-99 to 2003-04) to 3.1 per cent during the UPA-1 period (2004-05 to 2008-09) and further to 4.3 per cent during UPA-2 (2009-10 to 2013-14).
      • The agri-GDP growth during UPA-2 was driven not as much by RKVY as it was by high agri-prices in the wake of the global economic crisis of 2007-08.
    • Impact on poverty reduction: Agri-GDP growth had a significant impact on poverty reduction, whichever way it was measured — the Lakdawala poverty line or Tendulkar poverty line, which is higher.
      • At what rate poverty reduced? The rate of decline in poverty (headcount ratio), about 0.8 per cent per year during 1993-94 to 2004-05, accelerated to 2.1 per cent per year, and for the first time, the absolute number of the poor declined by a whopping 138 million during 2004-05 to 2013-14.
      • Interestingly, this holds even on the basis of the international poverty line of $1.9 per capita per day (on 2011 purchasing power parity, PPP, also see graphs).

    Right to food and debate around it

    • Scepticism over the success of agriculture support to food subsidy: Instead of celebrating this success of the growth strategy in alleviation of poverty, several NGOs and even Congress stalwarts remained sceptical.
      • They advocated food subsidy under the Right to Food Campaign.
      • National Advisory Council (NAC) came up with a proposal to subsidise 90 per cent of people by giving them rice and wheat at Rs 3/kg and Rs 2/kg.

    What were the arguments put forward by Montek Singh Ahluwalia?

    • Burden on exchequer: He tried to convince them that this was likely to create an unsustainable burden on the exchequer.
    • India could end up importing food: He also argued that India could end up importing grains to the tune of 13-15 million tonnes per year.
    • Cap the population coverage at 40%: He favoured a cap at 40 per cent of the population to be covered under the Food Security Act as the poverty ratio (HCR) in 2011-12 was 22 per cent.
    • Smart card to beneficiaries: He also favoured providing smart cards to the beneficiaries so that they could opt for buying more nutritious food rather than just relying on rice and wheat.
    • Chance for diversification of agriculture: Smart card with beneficiaries would have also allowed diversification of agriculture and augmented farmers’ incomes.
      • But he could not win over the NAC — although the coverage for food subsidy was reduced from the original proposal of 90 per cent to 67 per cent of the population.
    • Against the ban on agri. export: Montek also argued against export bans on agricultural commodities as these impacted farmers’ incomes adversely.
      • Government siding with consumers: But the government of the day often ended up taking the consumer’s side, as that was considered pro-poor.
      • This reduced the incentives for farmers, who then had to be compensated by increasing input subsidies.

    What are the result of this strategy adopted by the government?

    • Negative PSE: No wonder, years later, when we estimated the producer support estimates (PSEs), as per the OECD methodology — used by countries that produce more than 70 per cent of the global agri-output — we found a deeply negative PSE.
      • What negative PSE indicates? This indicates implicit taxation of agriculture through trade and marketing policies, even when one has accounted for large input subsidies going to farmers (see graph on PSE).
    • Consumer bias in the system: Today, the food subsidy is the biggest item in the Union budget’s agri-food space. In the current budget, it is provisioned at Rs 1,15,570 crore.
      • Borrowing by FCI not factored in: But this factor hides more than it reveals. Lately, the government has been asking the Food Corporation of India (FCI) to borrow from myriad sources, and not fully funding the food subsidy, which should logically be a budgetary item.
      • The outstanding dues of the FCI are more than the provisioned subsidy, and if one adds these dues to the budgeted food subsidy, the effective amount of food subsidy comes to Rs 3,57,688 crore.
      • This displays the consumer bias in the system.

    Conclusion

    • Restrict the population coverage of food subsidy: The Economic Survey of 2019-20 makes a case for restricting food subsidy to 20 per cent of the population — the headcount poverty in 2015 as per the World Bank’s $1.9/per capita per day (PPP) definition was only 13.4 per cent.
      • For the others, the issue prices of rice and wheat need to be linked to at least 50 per cent of the procurement price or, even better, 50 per cent of the FCI’s economic cost.
    • Unless we make progress on this front, it is difficult to unlock resources for the growth of agriculture, which slumped from 4.3 per cent during UPA-2 to 3.1 per cent during Modi 1.0.

  • Excise Duty on Petrol and Diesel

    The Central levies on petrol and diesel were hiked amid sliding global crude oil prices. But the price of petrol and diesel registered a decline after oil companies further cut auto fuel prices in light of the substantial fall in global crude oil prices.

    What is Excise Duty?

    • Excise duty is a form of tax imposed on goods for their production, licensing and sale.
    • It is the opposite of Customs duty in sense that it applies to goods manufactured domestically in the country, while Customs is levied on those coming from outside of the country.
    • At the central level, excise duty earlier used to be levied as Central Excise Duty, Additional Excise Duty, etc.
    • Excise duty was levied on manufactured goods and levied at the time of removal of goods, while GST is levied on the supply of goods and services.

    Purview of excise duty

    • The GST introduction in July 2017 subsumed many types of excise duty.
    • Today, excise duty applies only on petroleum and liquor.
    • Alcohol does not come under the purview of GST as exclusion mandated by constitutional provision.
    • States levy taxes on alcohol according to the same practice as was prevalent before the rollout of GST.
    • After GST was introduced, excise duty was replaced by central GST because excise was levied by the central government. The revenue generated from CGST goes to the central government.

    Types of excise duty in India

    Before GST kicked in, there were three kinds of excise duties in India.

    Basic Excise Duty

    • Basic excise duty is also known as the Central Value Added Tax (CENVAT). This category of excise duty was levied on goods that were classified under the first schedule of the Central Excise Tariff Act, 1985.
    • This duty was levied under Section 3 (1) (a) of the Central Excise Act, 1944. This duty applied on all goods except salt.

    Additional Excise Duty

    • Additional excise duty was levied on goods of high importance, under the Additional Excise under Additional Duties of Excise (Goods of Special Importance) Act, 1957.
    • This duty was levied on some special category of goods.

    Special Excise Duty

    • This type of excise duty was levied on special goods classified under the Second Schedule to the Central Excise Tariff Act, 1985.
    • Presently the central excise duty comprises of a Basic Excise Duty, Special Additional Excise Duty and Additional Excise Duty (Road and Infrastructure Cess) on auto fuels.

  • Ro-Pax Ferry Service

     

    Mumbai – the first metropolitan city in India has introduced Ro-Pax service to its transport infrastructure. M2M1 Ferry Vessel has commenced operations between Mumbai and Mandwa.

    Ro-Pax Ferry

    • Ro-Pax Ferry is a ferry that combines the features of a cruise ship and a roll-on/roll-off service.
    • This service has brought much to the relief of daily commuters, job seekers and holiday-goers travelling between Mumbai and Mandwa and also other parts of Alibaug.
    • Ro-Pax service enables people to ferry along with their vehicles on board, between Mumbai and Mandwa.
    • With this, Mumbai, Alibaug and the adjoining Konkan region will experience a boost in tourism, hinterland connectivity and also job opportunities.

  • The real reform

    Context

    The IBC has started emerging stronger as it delivered on its promise, passed the constitutional muster, earned global recognition and became the preferred option for stakeholders in case of default.

    Demystifying the myths surrounding IBC

    Myths about recovery:

    Most of the myths surround recovery. Consider the following example for quick appreciation.

    • M/s. Synergies Dooray was the first company to be resolved under the IBC. It was with the Board of Industrial and Financial Reconstruction (BIFR) for over a decade.
    • The realisable value of its assets was Rs 9 crore when it entered the IBC process. It, however, owed Rs 900 crore to the creditors.
    • How much did IBC recover? The resolution plan yielded Rs 54 crore for them.
    • Some condemned IBC because the resolution plan yielded a meagre 6 per cent of the claims of the creditors, disregarding the fact that they recovered 600 per cent of the realisable value of the company, which had been in the sick bed for over a decade.
    • If the company was liquidated, assuming no transaction costs, the creditors would have got at best Rs 9 crore — 1 per cent of their claims.

    The myth that recovery under IBC is dismal

    • Let’s examine the myth that the recovery through resolution plans is dismal.
      • Two hundred companies had been rescued till December 2019 through resolution plans.
      • They owed Rs 4 lakh crore to creditors. However, the realisable value of the assets available with them, when they entered the IBC process, was only Rs 0.8 lakh crore.
      • The IBC maximises the value of the existing assets, not of the assets which do not exist. Under the IBC, the creditors recovered Rs 1.6 lakh crore, about 200 per cent of the realisable value of these companies.
      • Why creditors had to take a haircut? Despite the recovery of 200 per cent of the realisable value, the financial creditors had to take a haircut of 57 per cent as compared to their claims. This only reflects the extent of value erosion that had taken place when the companies entered the IBC process.
      • What is the conclusion? As compared to other options, banks are recovering much better through IBC, as per RBI data.

    The myth that IBC is sending companies for liquidation:

      • What is the primary objective of IBC: Recovery is incidental under the IBC. Its primary objective is rescuing companies in distress.
      • More number of companies sent for liquidation: There is a myth that although the IBC process has rescued 200 companies, it has sent 800 companies for liquidation. The number of companies getting into liquidation is thus four times that of the companies being rescued.
      • The context for the numbers: Numbers, however, to be seen in context. The companies rescued had assets valued at Rs 0.8 lakh crore, while the companies referred for liquidation had assets valued at Rs 0.2 lakh crore when they entered the IBC process.
      • Looking from the value term angle: In value terms, assets that have been rescued are four times those sent for liquidation. It is important to note that of the companies rescued, one-third were either defunct or under BIFR, and of the companies sent for liquidation, three-fourths were either defunct or under BIFR.

    The myth that IBC is resulting in huge job losses

    • The next myth is that the IBC is resulting in huge job losses through liquidation. It is misconstrued that 600 companies — for which data are available and which have proceeded for liquidation — have assets (and consequently employment) at least equal to the aggregate claim of the creditors — Rs 4.6 lakh crore.
    • Unfortunately, they have assets on the ground valued only at Rs 0.2 lakh crore.
      • Take the examples of Minerals Limited and Orchid Healthcare Private Limited, which have been completely liquidated. They owed Rs 8,163 crore, while they had absolutely no assets and employment.
      • What matters in this context is the assets a company has or the employment it provides — not how much it owes to creditors.
    • The IBC process would release the idle or under-utilised assets valued at Rs 0.2 lakh crore, which would have dissipated with time, for business and employment.
    • One also needs to consider the jobs saved through the rescue of 80 per cent of the distressed assets, and the job being created by these companies, post-rescue.

    What changes IBC has brought?

    • Changed the behaviour of debtors: A distressed asset has a life cycle. Its value declines with time if the distress is not addressed.
      • The credible threat of the IBC process, that a company may change hands, has changed the behaviour of debtors.
    • Debtors are settling debt at an early stage: Thousands of debtors are settling defaults at the early stages of the life cycle of a distressed asset.
      • They are settling when the default is imminent, on receipt of a notice for repayment but before filing an application, after filing the application but before its admission, and even after admission of the application.
      • These stages are akin to preventive care, primary care, secondary care, and tertiary care with respect to sickness. Only a few companies, who fail to address the distress in any of these stages, reach the liquidation stage.
    • Value erosion at the liquidation stage: The value of the company is substantially eroded, and hence some of them would be rescued, while others are liquidated.
      • The recovery may be low at this stage, but in the early stages of distress, it is much higher — primarily because of the IBC.
      • The percentage of companies or distressed assets getting into liquidation is insignificant.
      • Stakeholders should increasingly address the distress in the early stages and the best use of the IBC would be not using it all.

    Conclusion

    Stakeholders who understand business and have the backing of sophisticated professionals are using IBC with open eyes after evaluating all options. There is no reason to doubt their commercial wisdom. The 25,000 applications filed so far under IBC indicate the value and trust that stakeholders place on the law — the ultimate test of its efficacy.

     

  • The circuit breaker in the stock market

    The stock markets in India are witnessing historic single-day falls with an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases.  Since the indexes plunged more than 10 per cent each day earlier, a circuit breaker was triggered for the first time since 2009 halting trading.

    What are circuit breakers?

    • In June 2001, the SEBI implemented index-based market-wide circuit breakers.
    • Circuit breakers are triggered to prevent markets from crashing, which happens when market participants start to panic induced by fears that their stocks are overvalued and decide to sell their stocks.
    • This index-based market-wide circuit breaker system applies at three stages of the index movement, at 10, 15 and 20 per cent.
    • When triggered, these circuit breakers bring about a coordinated trading halt in all equity and equity derivative markets nationwide.

     

  • Is the worst really over for the country’s agricultural sector?

    Context

    Estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) released on 28 February confirmed that India’s economy is decelerating. The silver lining was growth in agriculture, which accelerated for the third quarter in a row to 3.5%.

    How agriculture sector has performed in the last few years?

    • Robust growth in the last 5 years: A look at the national accounts for a longer period shows robust agricultural growth during the first five years.
      • With agriculture growing at 3.17% per annum between 2013-14 and 2019-20.
      • This is remarkable, given that the broader economy is witnessing a slowdown.
    • Rural economy seen from the other indicators: A variety of other indicators show that the rural economy has been going through possibly its worst phase, with declining wage growth and farmer incomes causing serious distress.

    Crop sector growth rate at lowest

    • A clue to this disconnect between the national accounts and other indicators lies in a breakdown of the national accounts.
    • Crop sector growing at lowest in two decades: The GDP data for the agricultural sector shows that the crop sector, which accounts for 56% of total agricultural output and employs a majority of the farmers, has been growing at only 0.3%, the lowest in two decades.
      • By comparison, the sector grew 3.3% per annum during the 10 years under United Progressive Alliance governments.
    • Which sector of agri. is growing at a high rate? The agricultural sub-sectors that showed high growth between 2013-14 and 2018-19 were livestock (8.1%), forestry (3.1%) and fisheries (10.9%).
      • It is a puzzle what drove the high growth of livestock at a time when the crop sector was experiencing negligible growth.
      • The trend defies the logic: This defies past trends and is also difficult to believe, given contrasting trends in other indicators of livestock
    • The declining income of farmers and a decline in wages: The poor performance of the crop sector confirms the declining income of farmers, the majority of whom depend on crops for subsistence. Not surprisingly, even real rural wages are declining.
    • Inflationary pressure and hopes of growth in income of farmers: Hopes were kindled in the last three months as agricultural commodities showed signs of inflationary pressures, with food inflation hitting double-digit rates.
      • Increase in rural demand not the cause of inflation: A careful analysis of the data rules out rising rural demand as the cause of that inflationary trend.
      • Many price pressures were due to the mismanagement of cereal supplies by the government and supply shocks in vegetables.
      • In such circumstances, farmer income could not have risen. Some of this was also a result of food prices rising internationally.

    Trend pointing to the fall in agri. prices

    • Softening of food prices: Recent trends in international markets suggest a softening of food prices led by an overproduction of cereals and easing edible oil inflation. Following 3 factors may contribute to its fall.
    • Impact of fall in crude oil price: This trend will gain strength in the wake of the recent slide in crude oil prices.
      • With the global economy displaying signs of a slowdown, prices of agricultural commodities are likely to fall sharply.
      • Relation of food prices with oil prices: They tend to follow movements in crude oil prices, as was seen during the latter’s collapse in August 2014. In all likelihood, a similar decline in agricultural prices is upon us.
    • Food-grain stock with FCI: A second factor that may exacerbate the income troubles in agriculture is the presence of massive food-grain stocks with the Food Corporation of India.
      • This may slow the procurement of farm produce and lower price realizations, particularly cereals but also other crops.
    • The coronavirus outbreak: Lastly, the global slowdown due to the coronavirus outbreak is likely to dampen demand in the economy, and in turn hurt the agricultural sector.

    Conclusion

    • Limited room to improve the situation: These factors are likely to worsen agricultural incomes, and domestic policy has limited room to manoeuvre.
    • Opportunity to revive the demand: This situation is also an opportune time to revive rural demand The government could pass on some of the windfalls from the drop in oil prices to rural consumers. This could help lift rural incomes.
      • The government could also increase spending in rural areas to help boost demand and prevent a collapse in agricultural prices.
    • Worst for agriculture is not yet over: Whether the government uses the opportunity or fritters it away again will be known in the coming months. What appears certain for now, though, is that the worst of the rural slowdown is far from over.