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Subject: Geography

  • A Good Monsoon

    Why in the News?

    This May has been unusually wet, with India getting 68.4% more rain than normal. Also, there have been no extreme temperatures or major heatwaves across most parts of the country.

    What caused the wet and cool May in India?

    • Above-Normal Rainfall: India received 68.4% more rainfall than usual for May, making it one of the wettest months in recent times. Eg: 27 out of 36 meteorological subdivisions saw over 20% surplus rain.
    • Frequent Moisture-Laden Winds: Western disturbances from the Mediterranean and incursions from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea brought continuous showers. Eg: These weather systems caused intermittent thunderstorms across northern and eastern India.
    • Suppression of Heatwaves: Each thunderstorm cooled temperatures, preventing the buildup of heatwaves. Eg: No major heatwave was reported across central and north India during May.

    Why is the formation of heat lows over northwest India important for the monsoon?

    • Creates Suction for Moist Winds: Heat lows act like a vacuum, pulling moisture-laden southwesterly winds from the Indian Ocean into the Indian subcontinent. Eg: Strong heat lows over Rajasthan help trigger early monsoon onset over central India.
    • Drives Monsoon Circulation: These low-pressure areas initiate and sustain the monsoon trough, which is essential for widespread rainfall. Eg: Absence of heat lows can delay or weaken the monsoon across northwest and central India.
    • Influences Rainfall Intensity and Spread: Proper heat low development ensures uniform and timely rainfall, crucial for agriculture. Eg: Weak heat lows in 2015 contributed to a patchy and deficient monsoon season.

    How do El Niño and IOD affect the monsoon?

    • El Niño Weakens Monsoon Winds: El Niño leads to warmer Pacific Ocean waters, which suppresses the Indian monsoon by weakening the low-pressure system over the subcontinent. Eg: The 2015 El Niño caused a 14% rainfall deficit in India.
    • Positive IOD Strengthens Monsoon: A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) brings warmer waters near Africa and cooler waters near Indonesia, enhancing monsoon winds and rainfall over India. Eg: In 2019, a strong positive IOD offset El Niño’s impact, resulting in above-normal rainfall.

    What would be the impact of monsoon on food inflation? 

    • Good Monsoon Boosts Crop Yields: Adequate rainfall ensures timely sowing and healthy harvests, leading to better food availability and stable prices. Eg: A normal monsoon in 2022 helped moderate cereal price rise.
    • Reduces Dependency on Imports: Sufficient domestic production of staples like wheat and pulses lowers the need for costly imports, helping control food inflation. Eg: In 2024, surplus wheat stock due to good rainfall reduced price pressure.
    • Stabilises Rural Demand and Supply Chains: A healthy monsoon supports rural incomes, improving supply consistency and reducing volatility in food prices. Eg: Strong kharif output in 2021 led to a drop in vegetable prices.

    Way forward: 

    • Strengthen Climate-Responsive Agriculture: Promote drought- and flood-resistant crop varieties and expand irrigation to reduce dependence on erratic monsoons.
    • Enhance Weather Forecasting and Storage Infrastructure: Improve real-time weather alerts and expand warehousing to minimize post-harvest losses and stabilize food prices.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2024] What are the causes of persistent high food inflation in India? Comment on the effectiveness of the monetary policy of the RBI to control this type of inflation.

    Linkage: Understanding the dynamics of food inflation, as required by this question, is essential for appreciating the significant positive economic contribution that a favorable monsoon can make by potentially increasing agricultural output and stabilizing food prices.

  • World’s most powerful Solar Particle Storm struck Earth 14,300 years ago

    Why in the News?

    Scientists have discovered that a massive solar storm hit Earth around 12,350 BC, making it the most powerful solar event ever detected.

    What are Solar Particle Storms?

    • About: A solar storm is a disturbance caused by solar flares or coronal mass ejections that release charged particles into space.
    • Solar Particle Storm: It is a type of solar storm where high-energy particles travel toward Earth, producing cosmogenic isotopes like radiocarbon.
    • Detection: These isotope spikes are recorded in tree rings and are known as Miyake events, which act as cosmic timestamps.
    • Impact: Though rare, solar particle storms can severely affect satellites, communication systems, and power grids.
    • Historical Events: Major solar particle storms were identified in AD 994, 663 BC, 5259 BC, and 7176 BC.
    • Carrington Event (1859): This was a major solar storm, but not a particle storm—it resulted from a different solar mechanism.

    How was the ancient storm detected?

    • Methodology: A solar storm from 12,350 BC was discovered using tree-ring data from the French Alps.
    • Event Strength: This storm was over 500 times stronger than the 2005 solar storm, the largest in the satellite era.
    • What are its implications?
      • Significance: This is the first known extreme solar event before the Holocene, predating the last 12,000 years of stable climate.
      • Modern Relevance: The discovery highlights the risks of future extreme solar activity on Satellite infrastructure and Space Application.
      • Significance: Miyake events improve the precision of archaeological dating, helping better understand ancient human history.
    [UPSC 2022] If a major solar storm (solar flare) reaches the Earth, which of the following are the possible effects on the Earth?

    1. GPS and navigation systems could fail.

    2. Tsunamis could occur at equatorial regions.

    3. Power grids could be damaged.

    4.  Intense auroras could occur over much of the Earth.

    5. Forest fires could take place over much of the planet.

    6. Orbits of the satellites could be disturbed.

    7. Shortwave radio communication of the aircraft flying over polar regions could be interrupted.

    Select the correct answer using the code given below:

    Options: (a) 1 only (b) 2 and 3 only (c) 1 and 3 only (d) 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 and 7*

    Tap to know more about the answer.

     

  • Seasonal Impact of Monsoons on Wind Power

    Why in the News?

    The onset of cool, moisture-laden monsoon winds offers not just relief but also a significant opportunity for wind energy generation.

    About the Indian Monsoon:

    • Origin: The word “monsoon” comes from Arabic ‘mausin’ or Malayan ‘monsin,’ meaning “season”.
    • Seasonal Wind Shift: Monsoons are seasonal winds that reverse direction with changing seasons.
    • Types:
      1. Southwest Monsoon: Blows from sea to land, bringing rainfall across most of India.
      2. Northeast Monsoon: Blows from land to sea, bringing rain mainly to southeast India.
    • Role of Tibet: The Tibetan Plateau heats up in summer, creating low pressure that draws in moist winds.
    • Ocean Influence: A high-pressure system in the southern Indian Ocean helps drive the southwest monsoon.
    • Atmospheric Factors: Influencers include the Subtropical Jet Stream, Tropical Easterly Jet, and ITCZ.
    • Other Drivers: The Somali Jet, Somali Current, Indian Ocean Dipole, and Walker Cell also affect monsoon behaviour.

    How does monsoon impact wind variability?

    • Changing Wind Speeds: Monsoon wind speeds vary in strength and direction over time and place.
    • Energy Planning: Wind behaviour prediction is crucial for renewable power management, especially wind energy.
    • Agricultural Demand: Kharif crops planted in June depend on monsoon, raising seasonal energy demand.
    • Wind Energy Output: In areas like the Western Ghats, 70% of wind energy is generated June–September.
    • Forecasting Tools: Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models provide high-resolution wind forecasts.
    • AI Models: Tools like Google’s MetNet3 use satellite and radar data to predict wind in remote areas.

    India’s Wind Energy: Capacity, Growth & Challenges

    • India became the 3rd largest wind and solar producer in 2024, after China and the US.
    • Installed wind capacity: 50 GW as of March 31, 2025.
    • In 2024, wind and solar contributed 10% of electricity—solar 7%, wind 3%; hydro added 8%, totalling 22% from clean sources.
    • Solar capacity grew by 24 GW in 2024, doubling 2023’s figure; wind grew by 3.4 GW.
    • Leading wind additions: Gujarat (1,250 MW), Karnataka (1,135 MW), Tamil Nadu (980 MW).
    • Top wind states: Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, and Maharashtra; targets: 140 GW wind and 500 GW non-fossil capacity by 2030.
    • Land Use & Capacity Utilization Factor (CUF): Wind farms occupy just 2% of land, allowing agriculture on the rest; CUF ranges between 16%–19%, with peak generation during monsoon months.

     

    [UPSC 2014] The seasonal reversal of winds is the typical characteristic of:

    Options: (a) Equatorial climate (b) Mediterranean climate (c) Monsoon climate * (d) All of the above climates

     

  • Dirang Geothermal Project

    Why in the News?

    The Centre for Earth Sciences and Himalayan Studies (CESHS) has successfully drilled India’s first geothermal production well in Dirang, located in Arunachal Pradesh’s West Kameng district.

    This could potentially make Dirang the first geothermal-powered town in the country.

    What is Geothermal Energy?

    • Geothermal energy is derived from heat stored in the Earth’s interior, primarily from the decay of radioactive elements.
    • It can be utilised for electricity generation, heating, and industrial applications.
    • It is considered a renewable energy source as the Earth continuously generates heat.

    About Dirang Geothermal Project:

    • This project in West Kameng, Arunachal Pradesh, is the first successful geothermal drilling site in Northeast India.
    • It is led by CESHS under the Arunachal Pradesh Department of Science and Technology, with support from the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
    • It is a medium-to-high enthalpy zone (~115°C), with a fault between quartzite and schist, enabling efficient, low-impact drilling.
    • The site was selected after two years of geochemical and structural surveys, and can support applications like agricultural drying, space heating, and controlled storage.
    • International partners include the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Geotropy ehf (Iceland), and Guwahati Boring Service for execution.

    India’s Geothermal Landscape:

    • The Geothermal Atlas of India (2022) identifies 381 thermally anomalous sites across the country.
    • India has an estimated geothermal potential of 10,600 MW, enough to power over 10 million homes.
    • Geothermal energy offers base load power, unlike intermittent solar and wind sources.
    • The first operational plant was a 20 kW binary cycle pilot in Manuguru, Telangana, developed by SCCL.
    • A 25 MW project in Khammam remains stalled due to tariff issues with the Andhra Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission.
    • In Puga Valley, Ladakh, ONGC resumed work in 2024 on a 1 MW pilot plant, after a 2022 hot water leak raised safety concerns.
    • In Dholera, Gujarat, geothermal energy is used for cooking and air conditioning at a temple, showing direct-use feasibility.
    • India has signed MoUs with Iceland (2007) and Saudi Arabia (2019), and included geothermal energy in the 2023 RETAP agreement with the United States.
    [UPSC 2013] Consider the following: (1). Electromagnetic radiation (2). Geothermal energy (3). Gravitational force (4). Plate movements (5). Rotation of the earth (6). Revolution of the earth

    Which of the above are responsible for bringing dynamic changes on the surface of the earth?

    Options: (a) 1 only (b) 2 and 3 only (c) 1, 2 and 3 (d) None*

     

  • Delhi Morphological Ridge

    Why in the News?

    The Supreme Court notified civic officials of allegedly violating its 1996 directive in the M.C. Mehta vs Union of India case (1996) by approving a private housing project in Delhi’s ecologically sensitive Morphological Ridge area.

    Delhi Morphological Ridge

    About Delhi Morphological Ridge:

    • The Delhi Ridge is the northern extension of the ancient Aravalli Range, stretching approximately 35 km from Tughlaqabad to Wazirabad, along the Yamuna River.
    • It is composed mainly of quartzite rock, is over 1.5 billion years old, and significantly older than the Himalayas.
    • It functions as Delhi’s green lungs, aiding in carbon sequestration, temperature regulation, and air pollution reduction.
    • It acts as a natural barrier against desert winds from Rajasthan and supports rich biodiversity, making Delhi one of the world’s most bird-rich capitals.
    • It is divided into four zones: Northern Ridge, Central Ridge, South-Central Ridge, and Southern Ridge.
    • Key conservation areas include the Northern Ridge Biodiversity Park and the Asola Bhatti Wildlife Sanctuary.

    Land Use Regulation in the Ridge:

    • Although the area shares ecological features with the Delhi Ridge, it is NOT officially notified as forest land, but it enjoys judicial protection.
    • A 1966 directive prohibits any NON-forest use or encroachment without court approval.
    • Any change in land use must be cleared by the Ridge Management Board (RMB) and the Supreme Court-appointed Central Empowered Committee (CEC).
    • The area is mapped using data from the Delhi Forest Department and the 2006 Seismic Zonation Map.
    • Formal notification as a Reserved Forest under the Indian Forest Act, 1927, is pending due to the absence of ground-truthing.
    • In revenue records, it is often marked as “gair mumkin pahad”, meaning uncultivable rocky hill.
    • The terrain is ecologically fragile, with shallow soil and rocky outcrops, making it unsuitable for construction.
    [UPSC 2001] The approximate age of the Aravalli range is-

    Options: (a) 370 million years (b) 470 million years (c) 570 million years (d) 670 million years

     

  • Persian Gulf to be renamed as ‘Arabian Gulf’

    Why in the News?

    Donald Trump plans to announce that the US will officially refer to the Persian Gulf as the “Arabian Gulf” or “Gulf of Arabia”, aligning with the preferences of Arab nations.

    Persian Gulf to be renamed as 'Arabian Gulf'

    About Persian Gulf

    • The Persian Gulf is a marginal sea of the Indian Ocean, located in Western Asia.
    • It is connected to the Arabian Sea through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint for global oil shipments.
    • The gulf spans an area of approximately 251,000 km².
    • Its average depth is around 50 meters, with a maximum depth of about 90 meters.
    • The total coastline is roughly 5,117 km, with Iran possessing the longest share (~1,536 km).
    • The gulf is bordered by:
      • North: Iran
      • Southwest: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE
      • Northwest: Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain
    • Key islands:
      • Qeshm Island (Iran) — the largest island in the Persian Gulf (~1,491 km²), nearly 2.5 times the size of Bahrain.
      • Bahrain — a sovereign archipelago state with over 50 islands, and home to a major US naval base.
    • It is recognized officially by the International Hydrographic Organisation (IHO) as the “Persian Gulf”.
    [UPSC 2024] Consider the following statements:

    Statement-I: Sumed pipeline is a strategic route for Persian Gulf oil and natural gas shipments to Europe.

    Statement-II: Sumed pipeline connects the Red Sea with the Mediterranean Sea.

    Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements?

    Options: (a) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement-II explains Statement-I* (b) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct, but Statement-II does not explain Statement-I (c) Statement-I is correct, but Statement-II is incorrect (d) Statement-I is incorrect, but Statement-II is correct

     

  • Palaeofires from Permian and Late Silurian in the Godavari Basin

    Why in the News?

    Recent research has uncovered evidence of ancient wildfires (palaeofires) in the Godavari Basin, shedding light on Earth’s geological and climatic history from over 250 million years ago.

    What are Palaeofires?

    • Palaeofires refer to ancient wildfires that occurred in the Earth’s past, influencing the vegetation, climate, and even the formation of coal.
    • These fires, spanning from the Late Silurian (419.2 to 443.8 million years ago) to the Quaternary (2.58 million years ago), left their mark across various landscapes.

    Ancient Palaeofires in the Godavari Basin:

    • Palaeofires, traced back to the Permian period, provide evidence of how fires influenced prehistoric landscapes.
    • Advanced techniques like Raman Spectroscopy and FTIR Spectroscopy were used to differentiate between in situ (on-site) and ex situ (transported) charcoal.
    • The research also highlighted how sea level changes impacted charcoal deposition, with well-preserved fire signatures during regressive phases and more oxidized charcoal during transgressive phases.
    • These findings contribute to understanding carbon storage in the Earth’s crust and provide insights into past climate dynamics and fire behavior.

    Role of Palaeofires in Earth’s Past:

    • Palaeofires were crucial in shaping Earth’s climate, vegetation, and contributing to coal formation across various geological periods.
    • During the Permian period, palaeofires were widespread in Gondwana, affecting plant life and coal deposits.
    • Fossil charcoal found in coal-bearing formations like the Raniganj Coalfield suggested a connection between seasonal droughts and wildfires.
    • These wildfires influenced vegetation patterns and led to the accumulation of carbon-rich deposits.
    • High atmospheric oxygen levels likely intensified these wildfires, significantly affecting both climate and ecosystem changes.
    • Understanding palaeofires helps in grasping long-term carbon sequestration processes.
    [UPSC 2001] The approximate age of the Aravalli range is:

    Options: (a) 370 million years (b) 470 million years (c) 570 million years* (d) 670 million years

     

  • Changing patterns of Western Disturbances

    Why in the News?

    Heavy rainfall and strong winds disrupted life in Delhi due to a fresh splash of Western Disturbances over North India.

    Changing patterns of Western Disturbances

    What are Western Disturbances?

    • Western Disturbances are extra-tropical weather systems that originate near the Mediterranean region.
    • They carry moisture from the Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, Caspian Sea, and Arabian Sea.
    • These disturbances are embedded within the subtropical westerly jet stream, a fast-moving air current in the upper atmosphere.
    • They bring rain, snow, and fog, especially from December to March, as they encounter the Himalayas, causing rainfall in the plains and snowfall at higher altitudes.
    • They are responsible for most of the winter and pre-monsoon rainfall in Northwest India and are critical for rabi crops like wheat.

    Recent Changes in its Pattern:

    • Recent observations show an increase in frequency, particularly from late January onwards, with disturbances now occurring outside the winter season.
    • These disturbances have been observed even in May, June, and July, where they were once rare.
    • The geographic spread of these disturbances is widening, affecting larger parts of North and Northwest India.
    • Reasons behind:
      • The strengthening of the subtropical westerly jet stream, likely influenced by rising global temperatures, is a key factor.
      • The delayed retreat of the jet stream is affecting the timing of the summer monsoon, leading to overlapping weather patterns.
      • The warming of the Arabian Sea (by 1.2°C to 1.4°C over recent decades) is increasing moisture, intensifying rainfall.
    [UPSC 2015] Consider the following statements:

    1. The winds which blow between 30° N and 60° S latitudes throughout the year are known as westerlies. 2. The moist air masses that cause winter rains in North-Western region of India are part of westerlies.

    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

    Options: (a) 1 only (b) 2 only * (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2

     

  • In news: Haji Pir Pass

    Why in the News?

    The recent Pahalgam terror attack has revived debates on India’s 1966 decision to surrender the Haji Pir Pass to Pakistan during Tashkent Agreement of 1966.

    This move is compared to the Soviet Union’s 1954 transfer of Crimea, which created lasting security challenges.

    About Haji Pir Pass:

    • The Haji Pir Pass is located in the Pir Panjal Range of Jammu and Kashmir, at an altitude of 2,637 meters (8,652 feet).
    • It connects Poonch in India to Rawalakot in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
    • Historically, it was a vital route for connecting Jammu to the Kashmir Valley before 1947, making it an essential part of India’s transportation network.
    • Post-partition, it became part of PoK and, during the 1965 Indo-Pak War, India recaptured it under Operation Bakshi.
    • However, it was returned to Pakistan following the Tashkent Agreement in 1966, a decision criticized by many experts.

    How Haji Pir Pass is a Chokepoint?

    • Strategic Military Route: The pass provides Pakistan with the ability to control and monitor the Kashmir Valley from a high-altitude position, serving as a key route for military logistics and infiltration.
    • Gateway for Infiltration: Historically, it has been used for militant infiltration into India, fuelling insurgency and instability in Kashmir.
    • Shortened Military Access: Retaining the pass would have reduced the distance between Poonch and Uri from 282 km to 56 km, improving India’s military logistics and rapid deployment.
    • Control over Key Terrain: Controlling the pass enables domination of the surrounding hills, limiting Pakistan’s ability to sustain military pressure and infiltration.
    [UPSC 2007] Which one of the following Himalayan passes was reopened around in the middle of the year 2006 to facilitate trade between India and China?

    (a) Chang La (b) Jara La (c) Nathu La* (d) Shipki La

     

  • The history and evolution of monsoon forecasting in India

    Why in the News?

    The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the rainfall during the June-September southwest monsoon season will be higher than usual, around 105% of the average rainfall over a long period.

    What are the main factors that influence the Indian monsoon, as mentioned by the IMD?

    • El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): El Niño, which is characterized by warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, tends to reduce monsoon rainfall over India. Eg, during the 2015 El Niño event, India experienced a weakened monsoon and below-normal rainfall.
    • Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): The IOD refers to temperature differences between the western and eastern Indian Ocean. A positive IOD (warmer waters in the west) is typically linked to above-average rainfall in India, while a negative IOD can lead to drought conditions. Eg,2019 saw a positive IOD, which helped counterbalance the El Niño and brought more rainfall.
    • Himalayan Snow Cover: As observed by Blanford, the amount of snow accumulation in the Himalayas influences the monsoon. A thicker snow cover in the winter months often leads to increased rainfall during the subsequent monsoon. Eg, years with heavy snowfall in the Himalayas tend to see better monsoon rainfall in regions like Northwest India.

    How did Blanford contribute to the development of monsoon forecasting in India?

    • Identified the Snow-Monsoon Relationship: Blanford discovered an inverse relationship between the amount of snow accumulated in the Himalayas during winter and the subsequent monsoon rainfall over India. He hypothesized that greater snow accumulation led to a stronger monsoon. This was the basis for early monsoon predictions. Eg: Between 1882-1885, Blanford used Himalayan snow cover data to predict the intensity of the monsoon, marking a key step in systematic weather forecasting.
    • First Long-Range Forecast (1886): Blanford made India’s first long-range monsoon forecast in 1886, predicting the seasonal rainfall across India and Burma based on his snow-rain hypothesis. This was a pioneering effort in utilizing long-term data for weather predictions. Eg: Blanford’s 1886 forecast was the first to consider annual snowfall patterns in the Himalayas to predict the monsoon’s arrival and intensity across the entire Indian subcontinent.
    • Foundation for Modern Meteorology: Blanford’s work laid the foundation for further development in meteorology and forecasting. His research on snow cover influenced future meteorologists, including Sir John Eliot and Sir Gilbert Walker, who refined and expanded his methods using new data sources and statistical models. Eg: Blanford’s ideas directly influenced later meteorologists, helping to evolve more comprehensive models, including those considering global atmospheric factors.

    Why were IMD’s forecasts inaccurate between 1932 and 1987?

    • Outdated Predictors: The parameters identified by Sir Gilbert Walker, such as the Southern Oscillation and other atmospheric factors, had lost their significance over time, meaning their relationship with the monsoon was no longer consistent. This led to inaccurate forecasts. Eg: For instance, in the period 1932-1987, the forecast errors were significant, with average errors of 12.33 cm for the peninsula and 9.9 cm for Northwest India, indicating the failure of the existing model.
    • Failure to Adapt to New Data: Despite attempts to tweak Walker’s model, the IMD did not fully integrate new meteorological data and evolving atmospheric conditions, leading to persistent inaccuracies in monsoon prediction. Eg: The model failed to predict the 1987 drought, highlighting the inadequacy of the forecasting system during this period and the inability to account for changing atmospheric patterns.

    How has the IMD’s forecasting system improved since 2007?

    • Introduction of Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS): In 2007, the IMD introduced the SEFS, which combined multiple models to generate a more robust prediction. This reduced the error margin and improved the accuracy of forecasts by considering different possible outcomes. Eg: The SEFS helped reduce the average absolute error in forecasts between 2007 and 2018 to 5.95% of the long-period average (LPA), compared to a higher 7.94% error in the earlier period (1995-2006).
    • Launch of the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS): In 2012, the IMD launched the MMCFS, which integrated ocean, atmosphere, and land data for more accurate predictions. This coupled dynamic model enabled better predictions by accounting for the interactions between various climate factors. Eg: The MMCFS contributed to more accurate monsoon forecasts in the years following its introduction, helping the IMD predict monsoon patterns with greater precision.

    What impact did the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) have on IMD’s accuracy?

    • Improved Forecast Accuracy by Integrating Multiple Data Sources: The MMCFS combined data from the ocean, atmosphere, and land, allowing for a more holistic and accurate monsoon forecast. This helped the IMD provide more reliable predictions by considering the dynamic interactions between various climate components. Eg: After the introduction of MMCFS in 2012, the IMD was able to produce more precise monsoon predictions, particularly in terms of seasonal rainfall.
    • Enhanced Long-Term Predictive Capabilities: The coupled model allowed the IMD to improve long-term monsoon predictions by simulating real-world climate interactions more accurately, reducing errors in forecasting and enhancing the reliability of predictions over longer time spans. Eg: The model helped improve predictions such as the 2014 monsoon season, where the forecast matched the actual rainfall more closely than earlier years, highlighting its effectiveness in reducing forecast errors.

    Way forward: 

    • Integration of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning: Leveraging AI and ML can further refine IMD’s forecasting models by analyzing vast datasets more efficiently and identifying hidden patterns in climate behavior, improving the accuracy of short- and long-term monsoon predictions.
    • Collaboration with Global Climate Agencies: Strengthening partnerships with international climate research institutions can enhance data sharing and provide more comprehensive insights into global climate drivers affecting the Indian monsoon.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2015] How far do you agree that the behavior of the Indian monsoon has been changing due to humanizing landscapes? Discuss.

    Linkage: Forecasting is essential for understanding the behavior of the Indian monsoon. This article explores the evolution of monsoon forecasting in India, particularly by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).