💥Join UPSC 2027,2028 Mentorship (August Batch) + XFactor Notes & Microthemes PDF
Talk to Mentor

Civilsdaily

Login

Subject: International Relations

  • Why Brazil always speaks first at the UN General Assembly

    Every year since the 10th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in 1995, Brazil has been the first to address the delegation, followed by the United States.

    About UNGA

    • The UNGA is one of the six principal organs of the United Nations (UN), serving as the main deliberative, policymaking, and representative organ of the UN.
    • Its powers, composition, functions, and procedures are set out in Chapter IV of the United Nations Charter.
    • It also establishes numerous subsidiary organs to advance or assist in its broad mandate.
    • The UNGA is the only UN organ wherein all member states have equal representation.

    Why does Brazil always get to speak first?

    • Brazil has been the first speaker at the UNGA annual general debate for over six decades now.
    • While some assume that the order is determined alphabetically, this is not the case.
    • This tradition dates back to the early years of the United Nations, following its formation soon after the end of World War II.
    • In those days, most countries were reluctant to be the first to address the chamber.
    • Brazil, at the time, was the only country that volunteered to speak first.

    So, why does the US go next?

    • In the list of speakers, the United States always goes second after Brazil as it is the host nation.
    • US President Joe Biden addressed the chamber on Tuesday, detailing his vision for a new era of diplomacy in his first-ever UNGA speech.

    How is the order of the remaining speakers determined?

    • After the US and Brazil, the order of speakers depends on a number of factors.
    • Generally the order is determined by the rank of the representative — heads of state, heads of government, crown princes, and foreign ministers would be amongst the initial speakers, followed by deputies and ambassadors.
    • Other criteria like geographic balance also play a role in determining the order.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Why the SAARC meeting was cancelled

    A meeting of foreign ministers from the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries, which was set to be held in New York has been cancelled.

    About SAARC

    • The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is the regional intergovernmental organization and geopolitical union of states in South Asia.
    • Its member states are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
    • The SAARC comprises 3% of the world’s area, 21% of the world’s population and 4.21% (US$3.67 trillion) of the global economy, as of 2019.
    • The SAARC was founded in Dhaka on 8 December 1985. Its secretariat is based in Kathmandu, Nepal.
    • The organization promotes development of economic and regional integration. It launched the South Asian Free Trade Area in 2006.
    • The SAARC maintains permanent diplomatic relations at the United Nations as an observer and has developed links with multilateral entities, including the European Union.

    Formation of SAARC

    • After the USSR invaded Afghanistan in 1979, the security situation in South Asia rapidly deteriorated. In response, the foreign ministers of the initial seven members met in Colombo in 1981.
    • At the meeting, Bangladesh proposed forming a regional association that would meet to discuss matters such as security and trade.
    • While most of the countries present were in favour of the proposal, India and Pakistan were sceptical.
    • Eventually, both countries relented and in 1983 in Dhaka, joined the other five nations in signing the Declaration.

    What has SAARC done so far

    • Despite its lofty ambitions, SAARC has not become a regional association in the mould of the European Union or the African Union.
    • Its member states are plagued by internal divisions, most notably the conflict between India and Pakistan.
    • This in turn has hampered its ability to form comprehensive trade agreements or to meaningfully collaborate on areas such as security, energy and infrastructure.
    • The 18th and last SAARC summit was held in 2014 with Pakistan scheduled to host the 19th summit in 2016.
    • Many nations pulled out of the summit, citing fears of regional insecurity caused by Pakistan and a lack of a conducive environment for the talks.

    Limited success to count

    • Despite these setbacks, SAARC has achieved a modicum of success.
    • It has provided a platform for representatives from member countries to meet and discuss important issues, something that may have been challenging through bilateral discussions.
    • India and Pakistan for example would struggle to publicly justify a meeting when tensions between the two are particularly high, but representatives from both countries could come together under the banner of SAARC.
    • The bloc has also made some headway in signing agreements related to climate change, food security and combatting the Covid-19 crisis.
    • It has the potential to do far more but that is contingent upon cooperation on key issues between member states.

    Why was the recent meet cancelled?

    Ans. Pakistan’s insistence to include the Taliban

    • The member states are unable to agree upon the participation of Afghanistan, with Pakistan and India in particular at loggerheads over the issue.
    • After Pakistan objected to the participation of any official from the previous Ghani administration, SAARC members reportedly agreed to keep an “empty chair” as a symbolic representation of Afghanistan.
    • However, Islamabad later insisted that the Taliban be allowed to send its representative to the summit, a notion that all of the other member states rejected.
    • After no consensus could be formed, Nepal, the ‘host’ of the summit, officially cancelled the meeting.

    Why did countries object?

    Ans. Taliban is not a legitimate govt

    • The Taliban has not been recognised as the official government of Afghanistan by any SAARC countries barring Pakistan.
    • Several top Taliban leaders are blacklisted by the US and/or designated as international terrorists.
    • Senior leaders who are not blacklisted are known for supporting terrorist activities or affiliating with terrorist organisations.
    • Allowing Taliban to represent Afghanistan in SAARC would legitimise the group and serve as a formal recognition of their right to govern.
    • Apart from Pakistan, which has close ties to the Taliban, particularly its violent subgroup, the Haqqani Network, none of the other SAARC members recognise the Taliban.

    Why nations should not recognize the Taliban?

    • PM Modi has referred to the Taliban as a non-inclusive government, warning other nations to think before accepting the regime in Afghanistan.
    • SAARC members are deeply aware of the threat of spillover terrorism from Afghanistan under the Taliban regime, with Bangladesh in particular, concerned with the effect it may have on extremism.
    • Developments in Afghanistan could lead to uncontrolled flow of drugs, illegal weapons and human trafficking.

    Conclusion

    • With Pakistan headfast in its support for the Taliban and the rest of SAARC weary to acknowledge the group, any future summit is unlikely until the issue has been resolved.

  • The big deal behind the ruckus over AUKUS

    The announcement of the new Australia-U.K.-U.S. (AUKUS) trilateral security pact has naturally generated animated debate in strategic circles, before the QUAD summit.

    What is the AUKUS?

    • The first major initiative of AUKUS would be to deliver a nuclear-powered submarine fleet for Australia.
    • The nuclear-powered submarines will give Australia naval heft in the Pacific, where China has been particularly aggressive.
    • While the US and Britain have had the capability for decades, Australia has never had an n-sub.

    Motive: To counter China

    • China has nuclear-powered submarines, as well as submarines that can launch nuclear missiles.
    • The three signatories to the AUKUS deal have made it clear though, that their aim is not to arm the new subs with nuclear weapons.
    • China has been one of Australia’s biggest trading partners, but the relationship has soured over the last few years.
    • It was in consideration of Chinese sensibilities that Australia had pulled out of the Malabar Naval Exercise with the US, India, and Japan after participating in the 2007 edition (of which Singapore too, was part).
    • Australia came back to Malabar in 2020, which marked the first time in 13 years that the navies of the four Quad nations war-gamed together.

    Australia at the Centrestage

    • This is primarily because a nuclear-powered submarine gives a navy the capability to reach far out into the ocean and launch attacks.
    • A nuclear-powered submarine offers long distances dives, at a higher speed, without being detected gives a nation the ability to protect its interests far from its shores.
    • In the context of the AUKUS agreement, nuclear-powered submarines will give the Royal Australian Navy the capability to go into the South China Sea.
    • It conclusively puts to rest a long-standing domestic debate on whether it was time for Australia to assess China through the strategic lens, overcoming the purely mercantile considerations that tended to dominate its China policy.

    What makes nuclear submarines so important?

    • A nuclear-powered submarine is classified as an “SSN” under the US Navy hull classification system, wherein ‘SS’ is the symbol for submarine, and ‘N’ stands for nuclear.
    • A nuclear-powered submarine that can launch ballistic missiles is called “SSBN”.
    • Conventional diesel-engine submarines have batteries that keep and propel — though not very fast — the vessel underwater. The life of these batteries can vary from a few hours to a few days.
    • The newer Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) submarines have additional fuel cells that allow them to stay underwater for longer and move faster than the conventional vessels.
    • However, the fuel cells are used only at strategic times, when the endurance to remain submerged is required.
    • Both conventional and AIP subs need to come to the surface to recharge their batteries using the diesel engine.
    • The diesel engine also propels the vessel on the surface. However, the fuel cells of AIP can only be charged at on-land stations, not while at sea.

    Why is France unhappy about Australia getting these submarines?

    • The deal has complicated the relations between France and Australia, and also France and the US.
    • France is upset as it has been kept out of the loop. But, with the core objective of pushing back against China’s aggression, all five countries — US, UK, Australia, France and India — are on the same track.
    • The deal between France and Australia had been marked by delays and other issues.
    • The first submarine was expected to be operational around 2034.

    Does India have nuclear-powered submarines?

    • Yes, India is among the six nations that have SSNs. The other five are the US, the UK, Russia, France and China.
    • India has had the capacity since it got the Soviet-built K-43 Charlie-class SSN in 1987.
    • Commissioned with the Red Fleet of the USSR in 1967, it was leased to the Indian Navy, and was rechristened INS Chakra. The submarine was decommissioned in 1991.

    Indo-Pacific is the core issue

    • France, which like the UK has historically been an Indo-Pacific power with territories and bases across the region.
    • It has participated in a multi-nation naval exercise in the Bay of Bengal with the four Quad nations.
    • There is no gainsaying the fact that rapid accretion in China’s economic and military capacities, but more particularly its belligerence, has led to a tectonic shift in regional security paradigms.
    • Several countries have been obliged to review their defence preparedness in response to China’s rising military power and its adverse impact on regional stability.

    A chance for the UK

    • The AUKUS pact is also an emphatic assertion of the relevance of the U.S.-Australia Security Treaty (ANZUS).
    • New Zealand, the outlier, walked away in 1984 from the treaty that ironically still bears its initials.
    • Its “nuclear-free” stance ran counter to the U.S. Navy’s non-disclosure policy in regard to nuclear weapons aboard visiting vessels.
    • Close ties notwithstanding, Australia’s future fleet of nuclear submarines will not be permitted access to New Zealand’s ports or waters, as averred by PM Jacinda Ardern.
    • AUKUS provides a fresh opportunity to the United Kingdom to reinsert itself more directly into the Indo-Pacific.
    • It is already a member of the Five Eyes (FVEY), an intelligence-sharing alliance built on Anglo-Saxon solidarity (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the U.K., and the U.S.).

    AUKUS is not a substitute for the Quad

    • It does not erode the Quad’s significance as a platform for consultations and coordination on broader themes of maritime security, free and open trade, health care, critical technologies, supply chains and capacity-building.
    • The AUKUS submarine deal, on the other hand, is an undiluted example of strategic defence collaboration, and a game-changer at that.

    Chinese reception of AUKUS

    • China, expectedly, has strongly criticised AUKUS and the submarine deal as promoting instability and stoking an arms race.

    The exposed double standards

    • China has the world’s fastest-growing fleet of sub-surface combatants.
    • This includes the Type 093 Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) and the Type 094 nuclear-powered Jin-class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN).
    • Its nuclear submarines are on the prowl in the Indo-Pacific.
    • Yet, China denies Australia and others the sovereign right to decide on their defence requirements.

    What’s in the box of AUKUS?

    Ans. Greater role for Australia

    • Australia’s proposed nuclear submarines will give quite a punch in terms of a stand-off capability.
    • The growing focus on anti-submarine warfare across a more expansive region is clearly altering calculations.
    • Australia’s nuclear submarines would help create a new balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, especially in tandem with the U.S. and the U.K.
    • It will now have a more meaningful naval deterrence of its own to protect its sovereign interests.
    • It is set to play a more robust role in ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.

    Way forward

    • The setback ‘down under’ may spur France to focus afresh on partners such as India.
    • India must strike a balance between continuing imports and implementing the all-important Atmanirbhar Bharat in defence manufacturing.
    • France should take AUKUS as a business deal.
    • Its momentary reaction at the cancellation of the contract by Australia should soon subside.
    • As a major Indo-Pacific power, France is an important part of the regional security calculus.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • What is Havana Syndrome?

    A US intelligence officer traveling with CIA director William Burns has reported symptoms of Havana Syndrome.

    What is Havana Syndrome?

    • Havana Syndrome refers to a set of mental health symptoms that are said to be experienced by US intelligence and embassy officials in various countries.
    • It typically involves symptoms such as hearing certain sounds without any outside noise being present, nausea, vertigo and headaches, memory loss and issues with balance.
    • As the name suggests, it traces its roots to Cuba.
    • In late 2016, US officials in embassy began experiencing sudden bursts of pressure in their brain followed by persistent headaches, feeling of disorientation and insomnia.

    How severe is it?

    • In 2018, at least three CIA officers working under diplomatic cover in Cuba had reported troubling sensations that seemed to leave serious injuries.
    • Some officers are being compulsorily retired for their inability to coherently discharge his duty and another needing a hearing aid.

    Has Havana Syndrome been reported anywhere else?

    • Since the Cuban incident, American intelligence and foreign affairs officials posted in various countries have reported symptoms of the syndrome.
    • In early 2018, similar accusations began to be made by US diplomats in China.
    • The US media has reported around 130 such attacks across the world including at Moscow in Russia, Poland, Georgia, Taiwan, Colombia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Austria, among others.

    What are the causes of Havana Syndrome?

    • No one is entirely sure. But it is speculated to be a “sonic attack”.
    • Medical examination of the victims began to suggest that the victims may have been subjected to high-powered microwaves that either damaged or interfered with the nervous system.
    • It was said to have built a pressure inside the brain that generated the feeling of a sound being heard.
    • Greater exposure to high-powered microwaves is said not only to interfere with the body’s sense of balance but also impact memory and cause permanent brain damage.
    • It is suspected that beams of high-powered microwaves are sent through a special gadget that Americans have begun calling “microwave weapon”.

    Who is doing this in India?

    • Sources in the Indian security establishment say they are not aware of any such weapon being in the possession of an Indian agency.
    • Even if there was one, it is unlikely the government would admit to having acquired such counter-espionage technology given the sensitive nature of intelligence work.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Is there a role for India in divided AUKUS?

    Context

    France recalled its ambassadors to the US and Australia in a diplomatic slap intended to convey its anger over a deal forged in secrecy that saw Paris lose a multi billion dollar submarine contract.

    Depth and diversity of India’s relations

    • That Delhi today is a part of a difficult conversation between the US, UK, France, Europe, and Australia points to the growing depth and diversity of India’s relations with different parts of the West.
    • Popular and academic discourse on India’s foreign policy has been obsessed with the concept of “non-alignment” —was about keeping distance from the West as a whole.
    • India’s contemporary diplomacy, in contrast, takes a nuanced view of internal dynamics in the West, and recognises the political agency of individual states, and develops wide-ranging relationships with the Western nations.

    Relations with France

    • Paris has always taken an independent view of the world, while remaining within the broad framework of the American alliance.
    •  In the 1990s, Paris championed the construction of a multipolar world to constrain American “hyperpower” but India did not join it.
    • The last few years, however, have seen an intensification of India’s strategic engagement with France.
    • For example, India has overcome the earlier reluctance to work with France on Indian Ocean security.

    Engagement as collective and sub-region

    • The government has also stepped up on the political engagement with Europe as a collective as well as its sub-regions — from Baltics to the Balkans and from Iberia to Mitteleuropa.
    •  As India discovers that every European nation, from tiny Luxembourg to a rising Poland, has something to offer, Europe has become a thriving hub of India’s international relations.

    Relations with the UK

    • Due to the bitter colonial legacy, relations between India and UK have always been underdeveloped.
    • In the last couple of years, India has made a determined effort to build a new partnership with Britain, which is the fifth-largest economy in the world, a leading financial hub, a technological powerhouse, and punches well above its weight in global affairs.

    Relations with “Anglosphere”

    • India’s neglect of London also meant Delhi had no time for the “Anglosphere” that binds the UK to Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.
    • Many had presumed that the Anglosphere was irrelevant — AUKUS, however, is a reminder that Anglo-Saxon political bonds endure.
    • Instead of treating the Anglosphere with scepticism, India has begun to vigorously engage with the “settler colonies” that have so much to offer India — from natural resources to higher education and critical technologies.
    • The UK and its settler colonies have long been the preferred destination for the Indian diaspora (besides the US).
    • Leveraging diaspora politics: While the diaspora tends to connect the domestic politics of the Anglosphere with that of India, Delhi is figuring out that the diaspora politics can be played both ways.

    Relations with Japan and Australia

    • The transformation of India’s relations with Australia has occurred despite entrenched scepticism in the foreign policy bureaucracy.
    • Finally, Japan has been a part of the West in the post-War era and Delhi’s relations with Tokyo have never been as rounded as they are today. They are also fellow members of the Quad.

    Way forward for India

    • This wide-ranging engagement with the West should help Delhi convey two important messages to its partners this week.
    • Not undermining the larger goal: India needs to remind France, Australia, the UK and US of the shared interests in securing the Indo-Pacific and the dangers of letting the current quarrel undermine that larger goal.
    • Effective deterrence in Indo-Pacific: The other is to highlight the region’s vast requirements for effective deterrence in the Indo-Pacific;
    • And that there is enough room for the US, UK, France, and Europe to collaborate with Indo-Pacific partners in overlapping coalitions to develop high technology and defence-industrial cooperation in all the areas highlighted by AUKUS — effective underwater capabilities to AI, quantum computing and cyber warfare.
    • Deeper cooperation: India’s interests lie in deeper strategic cooperation with France and Europe as well as the Quad and the Anglosphere.

    Conclusion

    India’s diverse relationships in the West must be deployed in full measure to prevent a split in the Indo-Pacific coalition.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • What is Agreement on Agriculture (AoA)?

    The Agreement on Agriculture at the WTO is riddled with deep imbalances, which favour the developed countries and have tilted the rules against many developing countries, a Union Minister has said.

    Agreement on Agriculture

    • The AoA is an international treaty of the World Trade Organization.
    • It was negotiated during the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and entered into force with the establishment of the WTO on January 1, 1995.

    Three pillars of AoA

    The Agreement on Agriculture consists of three pillars—domestic support, market access, and export subsidies.

    (1) Domestic support

    • AoA divides domestic support into two categories: trade-distorting and non-trade-distorting (or minimally trade-distorting).
    • It the classification of subsidies by “boxes” depending on consequences of production and trade:
    1. Amber (most directly linked to production levels)
    2. Blue (production-limiting programs that still distort trade)
    3. Green (minimal distortion)

    (2) Market access

    • Market access refers to the reduction of tariff (or non-tariff) barriers to trade by WTO members.
    • The 1995 AoA consists of tariff reductions of:
    1. 36% average reduction – developed countries – with a minimum of 15% per-tariff line reduction in next six years.
    2. 24% average reduction – developing countries – with a minimum of 10% per-tariff line reduction in next ten years.
    • Least developed countries (LDCs) were exempt from tariff reductions, but they either had to convert non-tariff barriers to tariffs—a process called tariffication—or “bind” their tariffs, creating a ceiling that could not be increased in future.

    (3) Export subsidies

    • The AoA required developed countries to reduce export subsidies by at least 36% (by value) or by 21% (by volume) over six years.
    • For developing countries, the agreement required cuts were 24% (by value) and 14% (by volume) over ten years.

    Criticism of AoA

    • AoA has been criticized for reducing tariff protections for small farmers, a key source of income in developing countries, while simultaneously allowing rich countries to continue subsidizing agriculture at home.
    • In 2017 India and China jointly submitted a proposal to the WTO calling for the elimination – by developed countries – of the most trade-distorting form of farm subsidies,
    • They are known in WTO parlance as Aggregate Measurement of Support (AMS) or ‘Amber Box’ support as a prerequisite for consideration of other reforms in domestic support negotiations.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • [pib] Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)

    The Prime Minister has participated virtually in the Joint SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization)-CSTO Outreach Session on Afghanistan.

    What is CSTO?

    • The CSTO is a Russia-led military alliance of seven former Soviet states that was created in 2002.
    • Current CSTO members are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, the Russian Federation and Tajikistan. Afghanistan and Serbia hold observer status in the CSTO.
    • Its purpose is to ensure the collective defence of any member that faces external aggression.
    • It has been described by political scientists as the Eurasian counterpart of NATO, which has 29 member states, while the CSTO has just six.

    Outlined functions of CSTO

    • CSTO supports arms sales and manufacturing as well as military training and exercises, making the CSTO the most important multilateral defence organization in the former Soviet Union.
    • Beyond mutual defence, the CSTO also coordinates efforts in fighting the illegal circulation of weapons among member states and has developed law enforcement training for its members in pursuit of these aims.

    What does CSTO membership provide?

    • While CSTO membership means that member states are barred from joining other military alliances, limiting, for example, their relationship with NATO.
    • Its members receive discounts, subsidies, and other incentives to buy Russian arms, facilitating military cooperation.
    • Most importantly, membership presumes certain key security assurances – the most significant of which is deterring military aggression by third countries.
    • In the CSTO, aggression against one signatory is perceived as aggression against all.
    • It however remains unclear whether this feature works in practice.

    Back2Basics: NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization)

    • NATO was found in the aftermath of the Second World War.
    • Its purpose was to secure peace in Europe, to promote cooperation among its members and to guard their freedom – all of this in the context of countering the threat posed at the time by the Soviet Union.
    • It is a military alliance established by the North Atlantic Treaty (also called the Washington Treaty) of April 4, 1949.
    • It sought to create a counterweight to Soviet armies stationed in Central and Eastern Europe after World War II.
    • Its original members were Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
    • NATO has spread a web of partners, namely Egypt, Israel, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland and Finland.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Hardly the India-China century

    Context

    Deng Xiaoping had told then-Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1988 that the 21st century would be “India and China’s century”, the current Chinese leadership has no patience for such pablum. They believe — indeed believe they know — that it is destined to be China’s century alone.

    The policy of side-stepping contentious issues and encouraging bilateral economic relations

    • There have always been political tensions, both over each country’s territorial claims over land controlled by the other, and China’s alliance with Pakistan, and India’s hospitality to the Dalai Lama.
    • But neither country had allowed these tensions to overwhelm them:
    • China had declared that the border dispute could be left to “future generations” to resolve.
    • India had endorsed the “One China” policy, refusing to support Tibetan secessionism while limiting official reverence for the Dalai Lama to his status as a spiritual leader.
    • India actions and statements have usually been designed not to provoke, but to relegate the border problem to the back burner while enabling trade relations with China (now worth close to $100 billion) to flourish.
    • India made it clear that it was unwilling to join in any United States-led “containment” of China.
    • From negligible levels till 1991, trade with China had grown to become one of India’s largest trading relationships. 
    • India engages with China diplomatically in the BRICS  as well as conducting annual summits of RIC (Russia-India-China).
    • India is an enthusiastic partner in the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank (NDB).
    • However, it has become increasingly apparent that the policy of side-stepping contentious issues and encouraging bilateral economic relations has played into Chinese hands.

    Chinese strategy in Galwan

    • In the Galwan clash, the Chinese troops seem to have been engaged in a tactical move to advance their positions along areas of the LAC that it covets, in order to threaten Indian positions and interdict patrols.
    • They are threatening India’s construction of roads, bridges and similar infrastructure on undisputed Indian territory, a belated effort to mirror similar Chinese efforts near the LAC in Tibet.
    • They have established a fixed presence in these areas well beyond China’s own ‘Claim Line’.
    • The objective seems to be to extend Chinese troop presence to the intersection of the Galwan river and the Shyok river, which would make the Galwan Valley off bounds to India.
    • The Chinese have constructed permanent structures in the area of their intrusion and issued statements claiming that sovereignty over the Galwan valley has “always belonged” to China.
    • Consolidation of LOC: China’s strategy seems to be to consolidate the LAC where it wants it, so that an eventual border settlement — that takes these new realities into account — will be in its favour.
    • Implications for India:  In the meantime, border incidents keep the Indians off-balance and demonstrate to the world that India is not capable of challenging China, let alone offering security to other nations.

    India’s options

    • India has reinforced its military assets on the LAC to prevent deeper incursions for now.
    • And hopes to press the Chinese to restore the status quo ante through either diplomatic or military means.
    • Chinese and Indian officials are currently engaged in diplomatic and military-to-military dialogue to ease tensions, but de-escalation has been stalled for months.
    • Economic options: India has responded with largely symbolic acts of economic retaliation.
    • India has also reimposed tighter limits on Chinese investment in projects such as railways, motorways, public-sector construction projects, and telecoms.

    Limits to India’s economic retaliation

    • India is far too dependent on China for vital imports — such as pharmaceuticals, and even the active ingredients to make them, automotive parts and microchips that many fear it will harm India if it acted too strongly against China.
    • Imports from China have become indispensable for India’s exports to the rest of the world.
    • Various manufacturing inputs, industrial equipment and components, and even some technological know-how come from China; eliminating them could have a seriously negative effect on India’s economic growth.
    • And there are limits to the effectiveness of any Indian retaliation: trade with China may seem substantial from an Indian perspective, but it only represents 3% of China’s exports.
    • Drastically reducing it would not be enough to deter Beijing or cause it to change its behaviour.

    Consider the question “State of India-China relationship hardly indicate the 21st Century being the “India and China’s century”. In light of this, examine the factors responsible for this and suggest the way forward for India.”

    Conclusion

    This range of considerations seems to leave only two strategic options. Playing second fiddle to an assertive China or aligning itself with a broader international coalition against Chinese ambitions. Since the first is indigestible for any democracy, is China de facto pushing India into doing something it has always resisted — allying with the West?

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • AUKUS Partnership for Indo-Pacific

    The Biden administration has announced a new trilateral security partnership for the Indo-Pacific, between Australia, the U.K., and the U.S. (AUKUS).

    What is AUKUS?

    • AUKUS, as the partnership is being called, will strive over the next 18 months to equip Australia with nuclear propulsion technology.
    • As part of this, Australia will acquire nuclear-powered submarines with help from the UK and the US.
    • It will also involve a new architecture of meetings and engagements between the three countries, as well as cooperation across emerging technologies (applied AI, quantum technologies and undersea capabilities).
    • Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines, when they deploy, will be armed with conventional weapons only and not nuclear weapons.

    Why such an alliance?

    • Tensions have been high between Australia and an increasingly assertive China, its largest trade partner.
    • Australia banned Chinese telecom giant Huawei in 2108 and its PM called for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19 last year.
    • China retaliated by imposing tariffs on or capping Australian exports.

    Not to substitute Quad or others

    • This alliance does not and will not supersede or outrank existing arrangements in the Indo-Pacific region such as the Quad, which the US and Australia form with India and Japan, and ASEAN.
    • AUKUS will complement these groups and others.

    Significance

    • There has been only one other time that the US has shared as “extremely sensitive” submarine propulsion technology — more than 60 years ago, back in 1958, with Great Britain.
    • The US is working to move past the 20-year war in Afghanistan and the chaotic U.S. exit from Kabul.
    • The Biden Administration has put countering China at the center of his economic and national security efforts, describing it as the biggest challenge of this era.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • India-Australia relations

    Context

    A few days ago, India’s Defence Minister and External Affairs Minister held the inaugural ‘2+2’ talks with their Australian counterparts.

    Transforming relations between India-Australia

    • Both are vibrant democracies which have respect for international laws and a belief in the equality of all nations irrespective of their size and strength.
    • Both draw their congruence from a rule-based international order, believe in inclusive economic integration in the Indo-Pacific region, and face challenges from a belligerent China.
    • Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison elevated their bilateral strategic partnership to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in June 2020.
    • Growing convergence on issues: There is a growing convergence of views on geo-strategic and geo-economic issues.
    • The convergence is backed by a robust people-to-people connection.
    • Both countries have stepped up collaborations through institutions and organisations on many issues in bilateral, trilateral, plurilateral and multilateral formats.
    • Bilateral security cooperation: Given their common security challenges and in order to enhance regional security architecture, both countries have intensified bilateral security cooperation.
    • Further, elevation of their ‘2+2’ Foreign and Defence Secretaries’ Dialogue to the ministerial level emphasises the positive trajectory of their transforming relations.
    • They have also stepped up security dialogue with key partner-countries to deepen coordination in areas where security interests are mutual.
    • The Malabar naval exercise by the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, the U.S.) is a step in this direction.
    • Partnership with like-minded countries:  Beyond bilateralism, both countries are also entering into partnerships with like-minded countries, including Indonesia, Japan and France, in a trilateral framework.
    • Trade ties: Trading between India and Australia has seen remarkable growth in recent years.
    • Two-way trade between them was valued at $24.4 billion in 2020. 
    • Trade is rapidly growing and encompasses agribusiness, infrastructure, healthcare, energy and mining, education, artificial intelligence, big data and fintech.
    • An early harvest agreement by December will pave the way for an early conclusion of a bilateral Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement between both countries.

    Issues in deeper economic integration

    • High tariff on agri products in India: India has a high tariff for agriculture and dairy products which makes it difficult for Australian exporters to export these items to India.
    • Non-tariff barrier in Australia: At the same time, India faces non-tariff barriers and its skilled professionals in the Australian labour market face discrimination.

    Consider the question “A growing convergence of views on geo-strategic and geo-economic issues between Indian and Australia makes it imperative to forge a partnership guided by principles with a humane approach. Comment.” 

    Conclusion

    The Quad has gained momentum in recent months. The time is ripe for these countries to deliberate on a ‘Quad+’ framework. The geo-political and geo-economic churning in international affairs makes it imperative for India and Australia to forge a partnership guided by principles with a humane approach.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)