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Subject: International Relations

  • Issues faced by World Bank and IMF

    This article discusses some inherent issues with the international organizations (IOs) i.e., the World Bank (Bank) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) (aka Bretton Woods Twins). This comes in the backyard of the WB decision to scrap its flagship publication, the ‘Doing Business’ report.

    Issue over chair: A monopoly of the West

    • Common individuals to head: The individuals which are common to them: Paul Wolfowitz, Jim-Kim, David Malpass, Rodrigo Rato, Dominique-Strauss Kahn, Christine Lagarde, and Kristalina Georgieva.
    • Monopoly of US/EU: They have all become heads via a dual monopoly selection procedure: Only an American can head the Bank and only a European can head the IMF.
    • Personal integrity: This has been called into question, the most recent being the revelations of malfeasance at the World Bank where data was apparently massaged to make at least two major countries — China and Saudi Arabia— look better than they would otherwise have been.

    Issues with these heads: Hypocrisy

    • Political accountability: Within countries, we expect reasonable standards of integrity from heads of important institutions, and democratic political accountability mechanisms exist to ensure that.
    • Probity: The effectiveness and legitimacy of these individuals and indeed of the international institutions they head require personal qualities of probity.
    • Non-virtuous preachers: These heads often go around the developing world, preaching the virtues of good governance, from arguing against the scourge of corruption to improving data integrity.
    • Undue parameters: There are even World Bank indices to rank countries on those metrics.

    How has this impacted these institutions?

    Ans. The credibility of the institutions is lost.

    • It is not just the charge of hypocrisy, but also the effect on the morale and motivation of the staff of these institutions.
    • Many of them chose to work here because of a commitment to public service.
    • The recent letter by more than 300 former World Bank staff, expressing their anguish at the recent revelations on the Doing Business index, captures this sentiment.

    Why such issues grapple these institutions?

    • Goal definition: International institutions operate in a grey zone of neither clearly being in or outside the realm of formal politics and hence have weaker mechanisms of accountability.
    • Selection of heads: The selection procedure for choosing heads of the Bank and the Fund has been a dismal failure. Compromised heads are potentially more biased.
    • Indoctrination: Contrast this with the growing alarm and anxiety that characterizes the rise of China and its attempts to place its own nationals in existing IOs as well as creating new ones.

    Chinese has intruded even into these

    • Countries place their nationals to head these institutions, both for prestige and to pursue their national interests.
    • China has its own nationals now head four of the 15 UN specialized agencies (it suffered a rare setback to head the World Intellectual Property Organisation last year).

    Conclusion

    • The contest between the West (and especially the US) and China to shape the global order is becoming manifest.
    • China’s efforts, its success, and more broadly its influence in IOs should certainly raise deep concerns, most notably the suppression of the inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus.
    • Looking ahead, if the US and Europe do not hold themselves to the standards they exhort to the rest of the world, their credibility and legitimacy will continue to degrade.
    • This will cede ground and soft power to geopolitical rivals.

    Way forward

    • So, global political leaders convening next week for the annual meetings of the Bank and Fund must act with urgency and conviction to stem the rot.
    • They must open the selection of the heads of these institutions to the best candidate, regardless of nationality.
    • And to pave the way, they should clear up the current mess over the Doing Business saga.

    Back2Basics:

    International Org. | Part 7 | Bretton Woods Institutions – World Bank Group

     

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  • India-ASEAN FTA

    The Commerce and Industry Minister has called for a renegotiation of the India-ASEAN free trade agreement (FTA).

    Why such move?

    • The MCI aims to prevent its misuse by ‘third parties’ and remove trade restrictions as well as non-tariff barriers that he said had hurt Indian exports disproportionately since the pact was operationalized in 2010.
    • The focus needed to be on new rules to eliminate misuse ‘by third parties outside ASEAN’, the minister said, hinting at China.
    • India had to deal with several restrictive barriers on exports in the ASEAN region, particularly in the agriculture and auto sectors.

    About ASEAN

    • Members:
    • Officially the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN is an economic union comprising 10 member states in Southeast Asia.
    • It promotes intergovernmental cooperation and facilitates economic, political, security, military, educational, and sociocultural integration between its members and other countries in Asia.

    India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement

    • The initial framework agreement for ASEAN–India Free Trade Area (AIFTA) was signed on 8 October 2003 in Bali, Indonesia.
    • The FTA came into effect on 1 January 2010.
    • The FTA had emerged from a mutual interest of both parties to expand their economic ties in the Asia-Pacific region.

    Background of the AIFTA

    • India’s Look East policy was reciprocated by similar interests of many ASEAN countries to expand their interactions westward.
    • After India became a sectoral dialogue partner of ASEAN in 1992, India saw its trade with ASEAN increase relative to its trade with the rest of the world.
    • Between 1993 and 2003, ASEAN-India bilateral trade grew at an annual rate of 11.2%, from US$2.9 billion in 1993 to US$12.1 billion in 2003.
    • Total Indian FDI into ASEAN from 2000 to 2008 was US$1.3 billion.

    Acknowledging this trend and recognising the economic potential of closer linkages, both sides recognised the opportunities to pave the way for the establishment of an ASEAN–India Free Trade Area (FTA).

    Structure of the AIFTA

    • The signing of the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement paves the way for the creation of one of the world’s largest FTAs – a market of almost 1.8 billion people with a combined GDP of US$2.8 trillion.
    • It sees tariff liberalisation of over 90 percent of products traded between the two dynamic regions, including the so-called “special products”.
    • The products include palm oil (crude and refined), coffee, black tea and pepper.

    Criticism

    While there are many benefits to the ASEAN-India FTA, there is concern in India that the agreement will have several negative impacts on the economy.

    • Opening-up its market: This FTA will allow them to increase the market access of their products.
    • No specific gains: It is criticised, however, that India will not experience as great an increase in market access to ASEAN countries as ASEAN will in India.
    • Export driven ASEAN: The economies of the ASEAN countries are largely export-driven. Considering India’s expansive domestic market, the ASEAN countries will look eagerly towards India as a home for its exports.
    • Huge trade deficit: Since the early 2000s, India has had an increasing trade deficit with ASEAN. It is feared that a gradual liberalisation of tariffs and a rise in imported goods into India will threaten several sectors of the economy.
    • Inaccessible Markets: As a dominant exporter of light manufacturing products, ASEAN has competitive tariff rates that make it difficult for India to gain access to the industry market in ASEAN countries.
    • Cheaper imports: The state of Kerala is an important exporter in the national export of plantation products. It fears that cheap imports of oil palm, rubber, coffee, and fish would lower domestic production, adversely affecting farmers and ultimately its economy.

     

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  • NATO fires Russian Diplomats

    NATO has withdrew the accreditation of eight Russian officials to the military alliance in response to a rise in malign activities by Moscow.

    NATO

    • NATO is a military alliance established by the North Atlantic Treaty (also called the Washington Treaty) of April 4, 1949.
    • It sought to create a counterweight to Soviet armies stationed in Central and Eastern Europe after World War II.
    • Its original members were Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
    • NATO has spread a web of partners, namely Egypt, Israel, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland and Finland.

    Why was it founded?

    Ans. Communist sweep in Europe post-WWII and rise of Soviet dominance

    • After World War II in 1945, Western Europe was economically exhausted and militarily weak, and newly powerful communist parties had arisen in France and Italy.
    • By contrast, the Soviet Union had emerged from the war with its armies dominating all the states of central and Eastern Europe.
    • By 1948 communists under Moscow’s sponsorship had consolidated their control of the governments of those countries and suppressed all non-communist political activity.
    • What became known as the Iron Curtain, a term popularized by Winston Churchill, had descended over central and Eastern Europe.

    Ideology of NATO

    • The NATO ensures that the security of its European member countries is inseparably linked to that of its North American member countries.
    • It commits the Allies to democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law, as well as to peaceful resolution of disputes.
    • It also provides a unique forum for dialogue and cooperation across the Atlantic.

    The Article 5

    • The heart of NATO is expressed in Article 5, in which the signatory members agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all.

    Why in news now?

    • The relationship between NATO and Russia is at its lowest point since the end of the Cold War.
    • The NATO (rather US) sees their aggressive actions, not least against Ukraine, but also the significant military buildup and violations of important arms control agreements.
    • NATO suspended practical cooperation with Russia in 2014 after it annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.

     

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  • A strategy for India in a world that is adrift

    This article discusses new situations prompted by the tectonic shifts in India’s internal and external environment to take another look at India’s path to power in a world between orders.

    New global order: No Order

    • Multipolarity: The world is today adrift. We are neither in a bipolar Cold War nor in a multipolar world, though perhaps tending towards a world of several power centres.
    • Lack of cohesion: The lack of a coherent international response to the COVID-19 pandemic is proof of an absence of international order and of the ineffectiveness of multilateral institutions.
    • Climate ignorance: So is the ineffective international response to climate change and other transnational threats.

    What are the major shifts in global order?

    • Secular stagnation
    • Retreat from globalisation
    • Regionalisation of trade
    • Shifting balance of power
    • Rise of China and others
    • Structural China-United States strategic rivalry

    All above factors have shifted the geopolitical and economic centres of gravity from the Atlantic to Asia.

    Major Concerns

    • Chauvinism: Inequality between and within states has bred a narrow nationalism and parochialism.
    • Existential threats: We are entering a new polarised information age, and face ecological crises of the Anthropocene, making climate change an existential threat.

    Asia as the nucleus: With focus on China

    • Shift of focus by the US: Over the next decade we expect Asia to remain the cockpit of geopolitical rivalries, and that the US remains the most formidable power, though its relative power is declining.
    • China at the centre: China sees a window of opportunity but acts in a hurry, suggesting that she believes that window may close or is already closing due to push back from the West and others.

    China’s expansionism

    • China’s crowded geography constrains her both on land and at sea.
    • Hence it expects her profile and power to continue expanding, particularly in our periphery.
    • The result is likely continued friction, some cooperation, and quasi-adversarial relations between India and China, which others will take advantage of.
    • Overall, we do not expect conventional conflict between the great powers in Asia, though other forms and levels of violence and contention in the international system will rise, with Taiwan a special case.

    Opportunities in disguise for India

    • The uncertainty and changing geopolitical environment clearly pose considerable challenges to Indian policy.
    • However, it also throws up certain opportunities, enhancing our strategic options and diplomatic space, if we adjust policies internally and externally, particularly in the subcontinent.

    How can India reap the benefits?

    • Enhancing ties with the US: Increasing security congruence with the US could enable growing cooperation in fields significant for India’s transformation: energy, trade, investment, education and health.
    • Climate cooperation: Other areas in which India and the U.S. could increase cooperation are: climate change and energy, tech solutions for renewable energy, and on digital cooperation.
    • Neighbourhood first: Several middle powers like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Indonesia in the neighbourhood are now India’s natural partners.
    • Digital space: This time of transition between orders is also when new standards and norms are being developed, particularly in the digital space. India can and must be present at the creation.
    • Maritime cooperation: At sea, the balance is today more favourable to us than before, possibly more so than on the continent. India must bat for the creation of a Maritime Commission in IOR.

    Bottlenecks in India’s neighbourhood policy

    • Over securitisation of policy: towards our neighbours has driven trade underground, criminalised our borders.
    • Conducive environment for entry of China: This has enabled the large-scale entry of Chinese goods destroying local industry in the northeast.
    • Lack of self-strengthening: While lessening dependence on China, and seeking external balancing, our primary effort has to concentrate on self-strengthening.
    • Lack of socio-political enterprise: If there is one country which in terms of its size, population, economic potential, scientific and technological capabilities can match or even surpass China, it is India.

    Way forward for India

    (A) Bringing multipolarity in Asia.

    • The way forward should be based on the core strategic principles in Non-Alignment 2.0 which are still relevant: independent judgement, developing our capacities, and creating an equitable and enabling international order for India’s transformation.
    • Today’s situation makes India’s strategic autonomy all the more essential.

    (B) Making an issue-based coalition

    • India must adjust to changing circumstances. We have no choice but to engage with this uncertain and more volatile world.
    • One productive way to do so would be through issue-based coalitions including different actors, depending on who has an interest and capability.

    (C) Reviving SAARC

    • India must craft and reinvigorate regional institutions and processes in the neighbourhood, reviving the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) for instance.
    • India could be the primary source of both prosperity and security in the neighbourhood — the subcontinent and the Indian Ocean Region.

    Conclusion

    • Economic policy must match political and strategic engagement.
    • Globalisation has been central to India’s growth.
    • A more active regional and international role for India is incompatible with a position on the margins of the global economy.
    • Self-reliance in today’s world and technologies can only be realised as part of the global economy.
    • We should not imitate China’s claims to being a civilisational state and its adoption of victimhood.
    • Instead, we should affirm our own strength and historic national identity.

     

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  • Outer space

    In opening new pathways for outer space cooperation in the recent US visit, PM Modi has positioned India to engage more productively with a rapidly evolving domain that is seeing more commerce and contestation.

    Outer Space Cooperation: A backgrounder

    • International cooperation is the new normal in space exploration, but it’s not a new concept.
    • One example of this cooperation is the International Space Station (ISS).
    • Another advance in international cooperation in the peaceful exploration of outer space came with the Artemis Accords.
    • Introduced in October 2020, the Artemis Accords establish a set of principles to guide space cooperation among countries participating in NASA’s Artemis program.

    There are five treaties that deal with issues related to outer space

    1. Moon Treaty: Non-appropriation of outer space by any one country, arms control, the freedom of exploration
    2. Liability Convention: Liability for damage caused by space objects
    3. Rescue Agreement: Safety and rescue of spacecraft and astronauts
    4. Outer Space Treaty: Prevention of harmful interference with space activities and the environment
    5. Registration Convention: Notification and registration of space activities, scientific investigation and exploitation of natural resources in outer space and the settlement of disputes

    Why does Outer Spaces matter?

    • Space situational awareness (SSA) involves monitoring the movement of all objects — natural (meteors) and man-made (satellites) — and tracking space weather.
    • Today, space is integral to our lives and disruption of space-based communications and earth observation will have serious consequences.

    India’s strategic interest in Outer Space

    Delhi’s new strategic interest in outer space is based on a recognition of two important trends.

    1. Centrality of emerging technologies in shaping the 21st-century global order
    2. Urgency of writing new rules for the road to peace and stability in outer space

    Why need US for this?

    • Technology cooperation has always been an important part of India-US relations.
    • But it has been a boutique discourse between the relevant agencies of the two governments.
    • The US has traditionally dominated outer space in the commercial domain.
    • As emerging technologies overhaul global economic and security structures, Delhi and Washington now have to widen the interface of technology.

    Why need a comprehensive outer space treaty?

    • Although human forays into space began in the middle of the 20th century, the intensity of that activity as well as its commercial and security implications have dramatically increased in recent decades.
    • Outer space has become a location for lucrative business as well as a site of military competition between states.
    • Until recently, outer space has been the sole preserve of states. But private entities are now major players in space commerce.
    • At the same time, as space becomes a critical factor in shaping the military balance of power on the earth, there is growing competition among states.

    Expanding QUAD in this term

    • Until now, the maritime domain has dominated the strategic cooperation bilaterally between Delhi and Washington as well as within the Quad.
    • The annual Malabar naval exercise, for example, began nearly three decades ago as a bilateral venture in 1992 and became a quadrilateral one in 2020 with the participation of Australia.

    Why does US need India in OST?

    • India, which has developed significant space capabilities over the decades, is a deeply invested party.
    • The US recognises that it can’t unilaterally define the space order anymore and is looking for partners.
    • International cooperation on space situational awareness is similar to the agreements on maritime domain awareness — that facilitate sharing of information on a range of ocean metrics.
    • India has been strengthening its maritime domain awareness through bilateral agreements as well as the Information Fusion Centre for the Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR) at Gurugram.
    • India has also taken tentative steps to cope with the unfolding military challenges in outer space.
    • It has also initiated space security dialogue with close partners like the US, Japan, and France.

    Making a first global move

    • When signed, the agreement with the US on SSA will be the first of its kind for India.
    • Washington has agreements with more than two dozen countries on SSA.
    • The US and Indian delegations have also discussed a US initiative called the Artemis Accords — that seek to develop norms for activity in the Moon and other planetary objects.

    Way forward

    • As commercial and military activity in outer space grows, the 20th-century agreements like Outer Space Treaty and the Moon Treaty (1979) need reinforcement and renewal.
    • The growing strategic salience of outer space demands substantive national policy action in India.
    • That can only be mandated by the highest political level. Back in 2015, PM Modi’s speech on the Indian Ocean focused national attention on maritime affairs.
    • India could do with a similar intervention on outer space today.

     

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  • India, Australia to conclude free trade pact by end 2022

    India and Australia have agreed to conclude a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) by the end of 2022.

    What is a Free Trade Agreement (FTA)?

    • A FTA is a pact between two or more nations to reduce barriers to imports and exports among them.
    • Under a free trade policy, goods and services can be bought and sold across international borders with little or no government tariffs, quotas, subsidies, or prohibitions to inhibit their exchange.
    • The concept of free trade is the opposite of trade protectionism or economic isolationism.

    Key benefits offered by FTA

    • Reduction or elimination of tariffs on qualified: For example, a country that normally charges a tariff of 12% of the value of the incoming product will rationalize or eliminate that tariff.
    • Intellectual Property Protection: Protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights in the FTA partner country is upheld.
    • Product Standards: FTA enhances the ability for domestic exporters to participate in the development of product standards in the FTA partner country.
    • Fair treatment for investors: FTA provides treatment as favourably as the FTA partner country gives equal treatment for investments from the partner country.
    • Elimination of monopolies: With FTAs, global monopolies are eliminated due to increased competition.

    How many FTAs does India have?

    • India has signed it’s first Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Sri Lanka in 1998.
    • Likewise, India had FTAs with: Nepal, Bhutan, Thailand, Singapore, ASEAN, Japan and Malaysia.
    • India has signed Preferential Trade Agreements such as:
    1. Asia Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA) with Bangladesh, China, India, Lao PDR, Republic of Korea, and Sri Lanka
    2. Global System of Trade Preferences (GSTP)
    3. India – MERCOSUR PTA etc. with South American countries

    Back2Basics: Types of Trade Agreements

    (1) Free Trade Agreement – discussed above

    (2) Preferential Trade Agreement

    • In this type of agreement, two or more partners give preferential right of entry to certain products.
    • This is done by reducing duties on an agreed number of tariff lines.
    • Here a positive list is maintained i.e. the list of the products on which the two partners have agreed to provide preferential access.
    • Tariff may even be reduced to zero for some products even in a PTA.
    • India signed a PTA with Afghanistan.

    (3) Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement

    • Partnership agreement or cooperation agreement are more comprehensive than an FTA.
    • CECA/CEPA also looks into the regulatory aspect of trade and encompasses and agreement covering the regulatory issues.
    • CECA has the widest coverage. CEPA covers negotiation on the trade in services and investment, and other areas of economic partnership.
    • It may even consider negotiation on areas such as trade facilitation and customs cooperation, competition, and IPR.
    • India has signed CEPAs with South Korea and Japan.

    (4) Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement

    • CECA generally cover negotiation on trade tariff and Tariff rate quotas (TRQs) rates only.
    • It is not as comprehensive as CEPA.
    • India has signed CECA with Malaysia.

    (5) Framework Agreement

    • Framework agreement primarily defines the scope and provisions of orientation of the potential agreement between the trading partners.
    • It provides for some new area of discussions and set the period for future liberalisation.
    • India has previously signed framework agreements with the ASEAN, Japan etc.

    (6) Early Harvest Scheme

    • An Early Harvest Scheme (EHS) is a precursor to an FTA/CECA/CEPA between two trading partners. For example, early harvest scheme of RCEP has been rolled out.
    • At this stage, the negotiating countries identify certain products for tariff liberalization pending the conclusion of actual FTA negotiations.
    • An Early Harvest Scheme is thus a step towards enhanced engagement and confidence building.

     

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  • What is H-1B Visa?

    The need for H-1B visas will continue to exist till the ‘talent challenge’ is tackled globally, even though the information technology industry has successfully adopted the work-from-home model amid pandemic-related travel restrictions.

    Various US Visa Programs

    1) H-1B visa

    What is it: The H-1B visa category covers individuals who “work in a speciality occupation, engage in cooperative research and development projects administered by the US Department of Defense or are fashion models that have national or international acclaim and recognition.”

    Who’s covered: The H-1B is most well known as a visa for skilled tech workers, but other industries, like health care and the media, also use these visas.

    2) H-2B visa

    What it is: According to USCIS, the H-2B program allows US employers or agents “to bring foreign nationals to the United States to fill temporary non-agricultural jobs.”

    Who’s covered: They generally apply to seasonal workers in industries like landscaping, forestry, hospitality and construction.

    3) J-1 visa

    What it is: The J-1 visa is an exchange visitor visa for individuals approved to participate in work-and-study-based exchange visitor programs in the United States.

    Who’s covered:     The impacted people include interns, trainees, teachers, camp counsellors, au pairs and participants in summer work travel programs.

    4) L-1 visa

    What it is: The L1 Visa is reserved for managerial or executive professionals transferring to the US from within the same company, or a subsidiary of it. The L1 Visa can also be used for a foreign company opening up US operations.

    Who’s covered: Within the L1 Visa, there are two subsidiary types of visas

    • L1A visa for managers and executives.
    • L1B visa for those with specialized knowledge.

     

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  • Four geopolitical developments and a window of opportunity for India

    A number of important developments has taken place over the past several weeks. They may appear disconnected but in fact add up to a significant shift in regional and global geopolitics.

    Four major recent developments

    1. Withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan: The complete takeover of the country by the Taliban
    2. Significant domestic political changes in China: The ideological and regulatory assault against its dynamic private high-tech companies and now its real estate companies
    3. Announcement of the Australia-UK and US (AUKUS): It represents a major departure in US strategy by its commitment to enable Australia to join a handful of countries with nuclear submarines
    4. Convening of the Quad physical summit in Washington: A major step towards its formalisation as an influential grouping in the Indo-Pacific going beyond security

    Risks and opportunity for India

    These four developments, taken together, present India with both risks but also with opportunities.  In affirmation, one can conclude that the opportunities outweigh the risks.

    [A] Risks in Afghanistan

    • The Afghan situation is a setback for India in the short run.
    • The political capital and economic presence it had built up in the country over the past two decades has been substantially eroded.
    • The Taliban government is dominated by more hard-line and pro-Pakistani elements.
    • They will help deliver on the Pakistani agenda of preventing a revival of Indian diplomatic presence and developmental activity in Afghanistan.

    Future of Taliban

    • In the longer run, it seems unlikely that the Taliban will give up its obscurantist and extremist agenda.
    • This may lead to domestic inter-ethnic and sectarian conflict.
    • The unwillingness of the Taliban to cut its links with various jihadi groups, including those targeting Afghanistan’s neighbours, may revive regional and international fears over cross-border terrorism.

    How should India defer the Taliban?

    • India’s response should be to bide its time, strengthen its defences against an uptick in cross-border terrorism.
    • India can keep its faith with the ordinary people of Afghanistan, provide shelter to those who have sought refuge.
    • It can join in any international effort to deliver humanitarian assistance to the people of Afghanistan.

    [B] Domestic political change in China

    • This is taking an ideological and populist direction.
    • The country’s vibrant private sector is being reined in while the State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) are back in a central role.
    • After the tech sector, it is the large real estate sector that is facing regulatory assault.

    Concerns for investors

    • This is leading to deepening concern among foreign investors, including those who have long been champions of long-term engagement with China.

    Opportunities for India

    • It is not coincidental that while in NYC, our PM had meetings with the CEOs of Blackstone and Qualcomm, both of which are heavily invested in China but are reconsidering their exposure there.
    • If India plays its cards well, this time round there could be significant capital and technology flows from the US, Japan and Europe diverted towards India because it offers scale comparable to China.
    • Since India has benign partnerships with the US, Japan and Europe, there are no political constraints on such flows.

    [C] AUKUS and QUAD

    • The AUKUS and progress made by the Quad serve to raise the level of deterrence against China.
    • It is useful since it has now become the core of the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy. China will be more focused on its activities.
    • The Quad now represents, from the Chinese perspective, a second order threat.

    Underlying opportunities

    • This offensive against China suits us since we are not ready to embrace a full-fledged military alliance which will constrain our room for manoeuvre.

    Why should India gauge these opportunities?

    • China has given up the expectation that it could unify Taiwan through peaceful and political means, including through closer economic integration.
    • It has lost its credibility after the recent crackdown on civil liberties in Hong Kong.
    • China may advance its forcible takeover of Taiwan before the AUKUS gets consolidated.
    • The nuclear submarines for Australia may not be built and deployed for several years.
    • We may, therefore, be entering a period of enhanced uncertainty and danger in the Indo-Pacific.

    India’s area for introspection

    • The constraints are policy unpredictability, regulatory rigidities and bureaucratic red tape in India.
    • Some of these issues are being addressed, such as dropping of retrospective taxation.
    • But there is still a long way to go.

    Way forward

    All these developments has heightened risk perception among international business and industry who have hitherto seen China as a huge commercial opportunity.

    • For India, some bold initiatives are required to take advantage of the window of opportunity that has opened.
    • It is a narrow window with a very short shelf life.
    • If grasped with both hands, then it could deliver double-digit growth for India for the next two or three decades.
    • This will shrink the asymmetry of power with China and expand India’s diplomatic options.

    Conclusion

    • India should not be caught off guard. Failure of deterrence in the Indo-Pacific will have consequences beyond the region and change the geopolitical context for India.
    • For now, let us focus on what we can do to advance India’s economic prospects, for which the times are unexpectedly more propitious.

     

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  • Illicit Proliferation of networks of N-weapons

    India has underlined the need for the international community to pay closer attention to the “illicit proliferation” of networks of nuclear weapons, their delivery systems, components and relevant technologies.

    Key takeaways from India’s remarks

    • India’s remarks appeared to be a veiled reference to China and its “all-weather ally” Pakistan.
    • China’s nuclear cooperation with Pakistan was in contravention with the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).
    • Several concerns have been raised over the export of nuclear materials to Islamabad by Beijing and that they are in violation of international norms and established procedures.

    Do you know?

    India has played a leading role in global efforts towards nuclear disarmament and was the first country to call for a ban on nuclear testing in 1954 and a non-discriminatory treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, as distinct from non-dissemination, in 1965. Its no-first-use doctrine is a worldwide appreciated strategy.

    Issues in Nuclear Disarmament

    • Notion of Nuclear ‘Haves’ and ‘Have-Nots’: The proponents of disarmaments are themselves nuclear armed countries thus creating a nuclear monopoly.
    • Concept of Peaceful Nuclear Explosion (PNE): conducted for non-military purposes such as mining.

    India’s commitment for de-nuclearization

    India has always batted for a universal commitment and an agreed global and non-discriminatory multilateral framework.

    • It has outlined a working paper on Nuclear Disarmament submitted to the UN General Assembly in 2006.
    • India participated in the Nuclear Security Summit process and has regularly participated in the International Conferences on Nuclear Security organised by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
    • India is also a member of the Nuclear Security Contact Group (but has signed off the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)).
    • India has expressed its readiness to support the commencement of negotiations on a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT).
    • India couldn’t join the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) due to several concerns raised by India.
    • India has piloted an annual UNGA Resolution on “Measures to Prevent Terrorists from Acquiring Weapons of Mass Destruction” since 2002, which is adopted by consensus.

    Why didn’t India join NPT?

    • India is one of the only five countries that either did not sign the NPT or signed but withdrew, thus becoming part of a list that includes Pakistan, Israel, North Korea, and South Sudan.
    • India always considered the NPT as discriminatory and had refused to sign it.
    • India maintains that they are selectively applicable to the non-nuclear powers and legitimised the monopoly of the five nuclear weapons powers.

    Way forward

    • India has actively supported and contributed to the strengthening of the global nuclear security architecture.
    • There is a need for the international community to pay closer attention to the illicit proliferation of networks of nuclear weapons, their delivery systems, components and relevant technologies.
    • India hopes that the international community will continue to work towards realising our collective aspiration for a nuclear weapon-free world.

     

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    Back2Basics:

    Nuclear Security Contact Group

    • The NSCG was established in 2016.
    • The NSCG or “Contact Group” has been established with the aim of facilitating cooperation and sustaining engagement on nuclear security after the conclusion of the Nuclear Security Summit process.
    • The Contact Group is tasked with:
    1. Convening annually on the margins of the General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and, as may be useful, in connection with other related meetings
    2. Discussing a broad range of nuclear security-related issues, including identifying emerging trends that may require more focused attention

    Nuclear Suppliers Group

    • NSG is a group of nuclear supplier countries that seeks to contribute to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons through the implementation of guidelines for nuclear exports and nuclear-related exports.
    • The NSG was set up as a response to India’s nuclear tests conducted in 1974.
    • The aim of the NSG is to ensure that nuclear trade for peaceful purposes does not contribute to the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

    Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

    • CTBT was negotiated at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva and adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in 1996.
    • The Treaty intends to ban all nuclear explosions – everywhere, by everyone.
    • It was opened for signature in 1996 and since then 182 countries have signed the Treaty, most recently Ghana has ratified the treaty in 2011.

    Fissile material cut-off treaty

    • FMCT is a proposed international agreement that would prohibit the production of the two main components of nuclear weapons: highly-enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium.
    • Discussions on this subject have taken place at the UN Conference on Disarmament (CD), a body of 65 member nations established as the sole multilateral negotiating forum on disarmament.
    • The CD operates by consensus and is often stagnant, impeding progress on an FMCT.
    • Those nations that joined the nuclear NPT as non-weapon states are already prohibited from producing or acquiring fissile material for weapons.
    • An FMCT would provide new restrictions for the five recognized nuclear weapon states (NWS—United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France, and China), and for the four nations that are not NPT members (Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea).

  • Flood management that cannot be watered down

    Over the years, many of Bihar’s districts have been facing serious challenges with recurrent and massive flooding.  It is the right time to look at some of the key aspects of India-Nepal flood management.

    Simultaneous floods in Bihar and Nepal

    • Some of Nepal’s biggest river systems originate in the Himalayan glaciers which then flow into India through Bihar.
    • During the monsoons, these river systems flood causing many problems for Bihar.
    • It is a necessity that there is process-driven coordination between the Centre and the Government of Bihar to handle the flooding in Nepal’s Terai and North Bihar (largely the Mithilanchal region).

    Which are those flooding rivers?

    • Nepal’s three biggest river systems—Kosi, Gandaki and Karnali—originate in the high mountain glaciers, flow through the country and then enter India through the state of Bihar.
    • During the monsoon season, these river systems often get flooded due to heavy rains/landslides in Nepal which create floods in India’s most flood prone state—Bihar.

    Bihar’s vulnerability

    • The history of floods in Bihar from 1998 to 2012 reveals how strong discharges of water due to heavy rains in the catchment areas of Nepal have created a strong pressure on the river embankments in India.
    • About 76 per cent of the population living in northern Bihar live under threat of floods due to these river systems and a total of 73.06 per cent of the total geographical area of Bihar is flood affected (mostly during the monsoon).

    Measures: Joint flood management program

    • As part of the long-term measures to address the problem of massive and recurrent floods in Bihar, the Joint Project Office (JPO), Biratnagar, was established in Nepal in August 2004.
    • It aimed to prepare a detailed project report to construct a high dam on the Nepal side (on the Kosi, Kamla and Bagmati rivers).

    Flaws: Yet to get effect

    • Despite the best efforts made by the Government of Bihar, the task remains unaccomplished even after 17 years.
    • The Government of Bihar has raised the matter at regular intervals for this.

    Who is the obstructionist? : Fault lies with Nepal

    • The Central Water Commission (CWC) has convened several meetings with Nepali Authorities.
    • However, what is evident is Nepal’s lack of prompt reciprocation.
    • India has long-standing water sharing issues with Nepal.

    What has been done so far?

    • As in the figures shared by Bihar, a total of four new flood protection works in the Gandak basin area were proposed before the floods of 2020.
    • There were proposed Barrage structures located in the border districts.

    Nepal’s reluctance

    • However, Nepal argues that many of the bund area falls into no man’s land along the open international border.
    • This is notwithstanding the fact that the embankment was built by India 30 years ago and there has not been any dispute regarding its maintenance all these years.

    What does this signify?

    • There is a need for India-Nepal collaboration for an efficiently operated barrage.
    • It is evident that Nepal’s attitude towards mutual issues (water sharing, flood control, etc.) has been short of collaboration, unlike in the past.

    Way forward

    • In the best spirit of friendship, Nepal and India should restart the water dialogue and come up with policies to safeguard the interests of all those who have been affected on both sides of the border.
    • It is time the two friendly countries come together and assess the factors that are causing unimaginable losses through flooding every year.
    • Optimisation of the infrastructure will be decisive in finding an alternative paradigm of flood management.
    • By controlling the flooding and using the water resources for common developmental uses such as hydroelectricity, irrigation and waterways, India-Nepal relations can be strengthened even further.
    • Moreover, it is also linked to how the Himalayan glaciers and the green cover are managed.

    Conclusion

    • Water resources are priceless assets.
    • Water cooperation should drive the next big India-Nepal dialogue, and despite the challenges, wisdom should prevail to turn the crisis into an opportunity, for the sake of development and environmental protection.

     

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