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Subject: International Relations

  • Phase 2 of ASPIRE Programme 

    Why in the News?

    The 4th India-UK Energy Dialogue, chaired by the Union Minister of Power and the UK’s Energy Security Secretary, was recently held in New Delhi. The dignitaries launched Phase-2 of the ASPIRE programme to improve power supply, energy efficiency, and renewable energy.

    About the ASPIRE Programme

    • The ASPIRE (Accelerating Smart Power and Renewable Energy in India) program was officially launched in November 2021 during the India-UK Energy for Growth Partnership.
    • It focuses on renewable energy expansion, power distribution reforms, and energy efficiency improvements.
    • The program is implemented in collaboration with India’s Ministry of Power (MoP), Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO).

    Key Features of ASPIRE Phase-2:

    • Round-the-Clock (RTC) Power Supply:  Ensuring uninterrupted electricity with smart grid integration.
    • Renewable Energy Expansion: Scaling up solar, wind, and offshore wind projects with investment support.
    • Industrial Energy Efficiency & Decarbonization:  Reducing carbon emissions in key industries like steel, aluminum, and cement.
    • Power Distribution & Market Reforms:  Enhancing smart metering, grid resilience, and regulatory cooperation between CERC (India) and OFGEM (UK).
    • Offshore Wind Development: Establishing a UK-India Offshore Wind Taskforce to boost supply chains & financing models.
    • Electric Mobility & Green Data Centers: Expanding EV charging infrastructure and sustainable energy solutions.

  • [11th February 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Gaza and Trump’s ‘expanding the canvas’ strategy

    PYQ Relevance:

    Q) “India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss. (UPSC CSE 2018)

    Q) Consider the following statements: (2023)

    Statement I: Israel has established diplomatic relations with some Arab States.

    Statement-II: The ‘Arab Peace Initiative’ mediated by Saudi Arabia was signed by Israel and Arab League.

    Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements?

    (a) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement II is the correct explanation for Statement I

    (b) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement-II is not the correct explanation for Statement-I

    (c) Statement I is correct but Statement II is incorrect

    (d) Statement I is incorrect but Statement II is correct

     

    Mentor’s Comment: UPSC mains have always focused on India’s relations with Israel (2018), and the Arab Peace Initiative for Israel and Palestine ( 2023).

    On February 4, 2025, Donald Trump proposed relocating Gaza’s 2.3 million residents to Egypt and Jordan, turning the area into a global resort under U.S. control. He hinted at a West Bank plan soon. Alongside Netanyahu, he praised Saudi Crown Prince Mb Salman, who reaffirmed that Saudi-Israel ties depend on a Palestinian state’s creation.

     

    Today’s editorial talks about issues in the Middle East which is always in the news because of the Israel and Palestine conflict. This topic is also the favourite of UPSC in GS Paper2 mains and prelims related to International relations above mentioned in the box (PYQ Relevance). This content would help in substantiation of answers in Mains GS Paper 2.

    _

    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    Donald Trump recently proposed an audacious plan to relocate 2.3 million residents of the Gaza Strip to Egypt and Jordan, turning Gaza into a global resort, which has stirred geopolitical tension.

    • This suggestion, along with his praise for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), hints at possible changes in the West Asia region, especially concerning the Israel-Palestine issue and Saudi Arabia’s potential involvement in the Abraham Accords.

    What is meant by Trump’s ‘expanding the canvas’ strategy?

    • Trump’s “expanding the canvas” strategy refers to his approach of broadening the scope of a negotiation or conflict resolution by introducing bold, often extreme proposals to provoke reaction and stimulate further discussions.
    • By presenting an audacious or exaggerated idea, he aims to shift the focus and push opposing parties to consider more realistic and agreeable counter-offers. The idea is that this “shock tactic” can help break a stalemate and create space for new solutions.
    • In the context of the Gaza proposal, Trump’s suggestion to depopulate Gaza and turn it into a global resort serves as an example of this strategy—pushing the boundaries of negotiation to force other stakeholders to come up with a more balanced, practical solution.

    What are the implications of the proposed strategy for the Gaza conflict, and how might it reshape the geopolitical landscape in West Asia?

    • Geopolitical Tensions and Pushback: This proposal would likely anger Palestinians and Arab nations, as it bypasses the core issue of Palestinian statehood and self-determination. It could worsen tensions between Israel, Palestinians, and neighboring Arab countries.
      • The suggestion might also be viewed as a land grab or colonial move, particularly because it disregards the established claim of Palestinians to their land, creating significant backlash in the region and beyond.
    • Impact on Palestinian Statehood: Trump’s plan shifts focus away from the two-state solution (Israel and Palestine coexisting as separate states), which many international actors, including the U.S. and the UN, support.
      • The proposal undermines the push for Palestinian independence and could derail efforts to achieve a lasting peace settlement.
    • Saudi Arabia and Other Arab Nations’ Involvement: Trump’s proposal could alter the balance in Arab-Israeli relations. Saudi Arabia, which is being courted for inclusion in the Abraham Accords, might find it difficult to reconcile such a plan with its own stance on Palestinian rights, especially since Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has linked normalization with Israel to the creation of a Palestinian state.
      • It could either push Saudi Arabia and other Arab states further toward Israel or create more division, depending on how the proposal is received by the region’s leaders.
    • Shifting Regional Alliances: If Saudi Arabia were to move toward accepting the proposal, it could signal a significant shift in Middle Eastern alliances, possibly leading to greater cooperation between Arab states and Israel, while sidelining Palestinian aspirations for statehood.
      • On the other hand, if the plan fails, it could deepen regional divisions, particularly between Israel and the Arab world, and intensify the existing geopolitical instability in the region.

    How are the ongoing conflicts and economic challenges in West Asia affecting the region’s future?

    Political Impact of Conflicts: The wars and conflicts in places like Gaza, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon have created deep divisions and instability. The region has been repolarized, leading to less cooperation and more distrust between nations.

    • Issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and Kurdish national aspirations remain unresolved, keeping tensions high and preventing lasting peace.

    Economic Challenges: The conflicts have caused massive destruction, with the rebuilding costs in places like Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. However, economic recovery is impossible without resolving the political issues first.

    • The region’s economy is also heavily dependent on oil, which is a vulnerable resource. The global push to move away from fossil fuels and the volatility of oil prices make the region’s future uncertain.
    • Countries like Saudi Arabia are aware of this and are trying to diversify their economies, but this process is slow.

    What are the Abraham Accords?

    The Abraham Accords refer to a series of normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab countries, aimed at establishing diplomatic, economic, and cultural relations. These agreements were brokered by the USA, and they marked a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics.

    Here are the four major features of the Abraham Accords:

    • Normalization of Relations: Israel established diplomatic ties with Arab countries like UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.
    • Economic Collaboration: The signatories are working together to enhance trade relations, investment opportunities, and economic partnerships. Israel’s advanced technology sector, including cybersecurity and innovation, is seen as a valuable area for collaboration with the Arab countries.
    • Security Cooperation: Enhances defense and intelligence sharing, especially to address regional threats like Iran. As part of the normalization, the Accords encourage cultural exchange programs, tourism, and people-to-people connections.
    • Exclusion of the Palestinian Issue: One of the most notable features—and points of controversy—of the Abraham Accords is that the agreements were made without resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
      • While Palestinian leaders and many in the Arab world have opposed the Accords, claiming they betray the Palestinian cause, the agreements were framed as separate tracks that do not require the resolution of Palestinian statehood for Arab-Israeli relations to normalize.

    Saudi Arabia’s Role in Shaping Stability:

    • Economic Influence: Saudi Arabia, as the largest economy in the region, plays a major role in the economic stability of West Asia. It has massive reserves of wealth, particularly from its oil exports, and is using this to invest in rebuilding and diversifying the region’s economy. The Saudi Public Investment Fund, for example, is helping to fuel new development projects.
    • Diplomatic Influence: Saudi Arabia’s political influence is also crucial. Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), the country has made efforts to mediate regional conflicts, like the war in Yemen and tensions with Iran. It has also sought to balance relationships with global powers, including the U.S., China, and Russia, while maintaining its leadership role in the Arab and Islamic world.
    • Potential to Guide Regional Stability: Despite the conflicts around it, Saudi Arabia has largely avoided direct involvement in the region’s major wars. It can use its wealth and diplomatic leverage to fund reconstruction efforts and push for more peaceful, negotiated solutions to ongoing conflicts. It also holds significant sway over organizations like OPEC, which can affect the global oil market and, by extension, the region’s economy.

    What are the challenges the US faces in advancing the Abraham Accords, and how does it  complicate vision for broader Arab-Israeli normalization?

    • Palestinian Statehood and the Core Issue of the Conflict: The Palestinian issue is a major barrier to Arab-Israeli normalization, with many Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, insisting on a Palestinian state as a prerequisite.
      • Trump’s focus on individual peace deals with Arab states bypasses this issue, making it difficult for countries like Saudi Arabia to fully normalize relations with Israel.
    • Opposition from Palestinian Leaders and Supporters: The Palestinian leadership has consistently rejected the Abraham Accords, seeing them as a betrayal of their cause. They argue that normalizing relations with Israel without addressing Palestinian rights and the establishment of a Palestinian state undermines their struggle for sovereignty and independence.
      • This complicates the situation. As long as Palestinians feel excluded from peace processes or see no meaningful progress toward a state of their own, it will be difficult to secure broad Arab-Israeli normalization.
    • Resistance from Ultra-Religious Israeli Groups: Within Israel, the growing influence of ultra-religious Jewish groups also complicates Trump’s plans. These groups often oppose any peace deal and their influence makes it harder for the Israeli government to adopt policies that could lead to broader peace agreements, even with Arab states.
    • Competing Interests Among Arab States: While some Arab states like the UAE and Bahrain have embraced the Abraham Accords, others, particularly in the Gulf, have been more cautious.
      • Saudi Arabia, for example, has signaled interest in normalizing relations with Israel, but only on the condition that Palestinian statehood is part of the deal.
      • This puts Trump in a difficult position, as he must balance the desire to expand the Accords with the realities of Arab and Palestinian demands.

    Way Forward: 

    • Need for Revised Diplomacy: A lasting solution must address Palestinian statehood, with a two-state solution being central to gaining support from Arab nations and Palestinian leaders. Direct negotiations, backed by international mediators, are crucial.
      • Arab states, Israel, and global powers must work together through multilateral platforms, with Saudi Arabia playing a key role in fostering peace and stability in the region.
    • Humanitarian Focus: Immediate efforts are needed to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and surrounding areas, with international aid supporting reconstruction and stability.
    • Economic Diversification: The region must move beyond oil dependency by investing in other industries, with collaboration between the U.S. and Gulf states to promote long-term economic stability.

  • India as a bridge between the Global North and South

    Why in the News?

    At the 18th Pravasi Bharatiya Divas (2025) and the 3rd Voice of Global South Summit (2024), PM of India emphasised India’s leadership in advocating inclusive global governance and amplifying the Global South’s voice.

    How can India effectively bridge the divide between the Global North and South?

    • Alternate Paradigm of Development Cooperation: India needs to reinforce its call for an alternative development cooperation model that is not solely top-down and dictated by the Global North. It should focus on equal partnerships, but avoid an “India-first” approach, being open to learning from other Global South countries to address domestic challenges.
    • Human-Centric Approach: India has partnered with countries like UAE, Japan, and Saudi Arabia under agreements like the India-UAE Skill Harmonization Initiative, ensuring Indian workers are trained to meet global skill standards. This model can be expanded to Global South nations, helping them create skilled labour forces for industrial growth.
    • Advocating for Inclusive Global Governance: India can push for reforms in international institutions like the UN, WTO, IMF, and World Bank to better represent Global South interests. Example: India championed the inclusion of the African Union in the G20 during its presidency in 2023, making the grouping more representative.
    • Learning and Listening: India needs to listen to the Global South to be a good leader, using trilateral partnerships and increased engagement with new partners as a learning process to scale up India-led global initiatives.

    What are the key priorities and concerns of the Global South that India can champion?

    • Debt Relief and Fair Financial Structures: Many developing nations are burdened by unsustainable debt, often due to high-interest loans from global financial institutions and major lenders like China. Example: India has advocated for debt restructuring in international forums like the G20 and supports initiatives like the Common Framework for Debt Treatment to assist Global South nations.
    • Climate Justice and Sustainable Development: The Global South demands climate finance, technology transfer, and a fair transition to clean energy without compromising growth. Example: India spearheaded the International Solar Alliance (ISA) to help developing nations access affordable solar energy and pushed for climate finance commitments at COP summits.
    • Equitable Global Trade and Market Access: Many Global South nations struggle with restricted market access, unfair subsidies in developed countries, and dependence on primary commodity exports. Example: India has advocated for WTO reforms, sought duty-free access for developing countries’ exports, and promoted initiatives like ‘Make in Africa’ to reduce dependency on Western economies.
    • Food and Energy Security: Rising food and fuel prices disproportionately impact Global South nations, making self-sufficiency in agriculture and energy a key concern. Example: India’s export of wheat and rice during global food crises and partnerships in biofuel development, such as the Global Biofuels Alliance (GBA), help address these concerns.
    • Technology and Digital Inclusion: The digital divide limits economic opportunities in many developing nations, making access to digital infrastructure and AI-driven solutions crucial. Example: India’s Aadhaar-based digital public infrastructure and UPI payment system have been shared with countries like Sri Lanka and Mauritius, promoting financial inclusion and governance reforms.

    How can India balance its relationships with both to foster unified solutions? (Way forward)

    • Strategic Multi-Alignment: India follows a multi-aligned foreign policy, maintaining strong ties with the U.S. and Europe while deepening its engagement with Global South nations. Example: India’s participation in the Quad (with the U.S., Japan, and Australia) while simultaneously leading the Voice of Global South Summits showcases its balancing act.
    • Leveraging Common Agendas: India identifies shared global challenges like climate change, digital transformation, and healthcare to foster collaboration between developed and developing nations. Example: India played a key role in securing climate finance commitments for developing countries during its G20 presidency in 2023, aligning Global South needs with Global North priorities.
    • Soft Power and Cultural Diplomacy: India uses its democratic values, historical non-alignment stance, and rich cultural heritage to maintain trust across geopolitical divides. Example: India’s expansion of diplomatic missions in Africa, the International Solar Alliance (ISA), and Yoga Diplomacy have helped strengthen relationships across both blocs.
    • Promoting Fair Investment Practices: Unlike China’s debt-driven infrastructure projects, India focuses on sustainable and transparent investment models that ensure local benefits. Example: India’s development assistance to Africa through concessional credit lines and capacity-building programs, such as the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC), contrasts with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
    • Institutionalizing Global Development Initiatives: India is working towards creating its own robust mechanisms for international development cooperation while collaborating with established institutions. Example: India’s push for the African Union’s inclusion in G20 and engagement in trilateral cooperation with France and the UAE for African development reflects its long-term vision of bridging the Global North-South divide.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is viewed as a cardinal subset of China’s larger ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative. Give a brief description of CPEC and enumerate the reasons why India has distanced itself from the same.  (UPSC IAS/2018)

    Q The long-sustained image of India as a leader of the oppressed and marginalised nations has disappeared on account of its new found role in the emerging global order.’ Elaborate. (2019)

  • [10th February 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Keeping a watch on the growing arc of violence

    PYQ Relevance:

    Q. The scourge of terrorism is a grave challenge to national security. What solutions do you suggest to curb this growing menace? What are the major sources of terrorist funding? (2017)

    Q. Discuss the impediments India is facing in its pursuit of a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. (2015)

    Mentor’s Comment:   UPSC mains have always focused on grave challenge to national security (2017), and ‘pursuit of a permanent seat in the UN Security Council ’ (2015)

    Wars are raging, global institutions are failing, and terrorism is evolving in new, digital, and decentralized forms. While conflicts like the Ukraine war and Gaza crisis dominate headlines, subterranean threats such as radicalization and lone-wolf terrorism are quietly reshaping global security risks.

    Today’s editorial highlights why the world is in a volatile state, how extremist groups are adapting, and why counterterrorism efforts must evolve to meet these new challenges. This content will help in GS paper 2 (Security issues).

    Why in the News?

    The world is going through an unpredictable phase, with wars, conflicts, and terrorism on the rise. The post-1945 global order has collapsed, and international institutions like the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) are failing to prevent violence. At the same time, terrorism is evolving, using digital tools and decentralized networks to survive and grow.

    Why is the Present Period Unpredictable?

    • Wars in Europe and West Asia:
      • The Ukraine war continues with no clear end in sight.
      • The Gaza conflict and tensions in Lebanon have led to large-scale civilian casualties.
    • Failure of Global Institutions:
      • The UNSC and ICJ have become powerless observers, unable to stop wars.
      • The principles of international law are now ignored by major powers.
    • Moral and Political Decline:
      • Nations are acting in self-interest, with no common moral framework.
      • Peace efforts are temporary and do not address the root causes of conflicts.

    What are the Recent Subterranean Activities?

    • False Sense of Stability in West Asia:
      • Some believe that Israeli military actions have weakened Iran’s regional influence.
      • However, underground resistance movements are growing, keeping tensions high.
    • Resurgence of Islamist Extremism:
      • Jihadist groups are reorganizing, using online radicalization.
      • “Lone wolf” attacks are increasing, making them harder to predict.
    • Digital Radicalization:
      • Terrorist groups are recruiting and training people online.
      • Social media and encrypted messaging apps are used to spread extremist ideologies.

    How Terrorism is Witnessing a Revival?

    • Terrorism is Adapting:
      • Since 1979, terrorist networks have evolved.
      • Al-Qaeda and ISIS have used both military and digital strategies to stay active.
      • Now, terrorism is shifting towards smaller, more frequent attacks.
    • Al-Qaeda and ISIS Regrouping:
      • Al-Qaeda is training militants in Afghanistan, under Taliban rule.
      • ISIS-Khorasan (ISKP) is expanding its operations beyond Afghanistan and Pakistan.
      • Attacks have been reported in Moscow, Türkiye, and Iran.
    • More Small-Scale Attacks:
      • Instead of large bombings, modern terrorism relies on:
        • Lone-wolf attacks (one person acting alone).
        • Vehicle attacks, knives, or simple explosives.
        • AI-driven propaganda to recruit supporters.
    • Recent Terror Attacks in the U.S.:
      • Las Vegas Cyber Truck Explosion: A Tesla exploded outside a hotel where President-elect Donald Trump was staying.
      • New Orleans Vehicle Attack: A former soldier drove a truck into a crowd, killing 14 people while displaying an ISIS flag.
      • Virginia Terror Plot: Authorities foiled a planned attack in early 2025.
    • Warnings for the Future:
      • Experts warn of a new wave of terror attacks using digital tools.
      • Security agencies worldwide are on high alert to prevent further incidents.

    Conclusion

    A technology-driven and cooperative global approach is essential to counter rising conflicts and terrorism. Nations must strengthen international institutions, use AI for surveillance, and enforce stricter digital regulations to prevent online radicalization. Community engagement and de-radicalization programs can help address extremism at its roots. Stronger border security, cyber-tracking, and intelligence-sharing will be key to preventing future attacks. As threats become more decentralized and digital, proactive measures and global collaboration are the only paths to lasting peace.

  • Indian Immigrants Deported from US

    Why in the News?

    A U.S. Air Force C-17 plane landed at Amritsar’s Guru Ram Dass Jee International Airport on February 5, 2025, carrying around 100 Indian nationals. These individuals were suspected of trying to enter the U.S. illegally.

    What are the Hotspots states of Illegal Immigration in India?

    • Gujarat: North Gujarat, including the districts of Mehsana, Gandhinagar, Patan, and Banaskantha, is a major hotspot. Specific illegal immigration hotspots within these districts include Dingucha, Khalva, Nardipur, and Limdivas in Kalol taluka of Gandhinagar district; Vijapur, Andudar, Tundali, Bhadol, and Dhanali in Mehsana district; and Sola Science City Road and Bhadaj in Ahmedabad city.
    • Punjab: Punjab is also a significant hotspot for illegal immigration.
    • Haryana: Haryana is another state identified as a hotspot.

    Andhra Pradesh tops the list of agents engaged in illegal manpower migration overseas. As of Oct 30, 2023, a total of 2925 such agents have been identified.

    What are the most common methods used? 

    • Forged Documents: Agents create fake passports, visas, and other documents to facilitate illegal migration. This includes fake departure/arrival stamps, work permits, and educational or corporate papers.
    • “Donkey Routes”: Agents organize travel through multiple countries to exploit visa loopholes and enable illegal border crossings into the desired destination. This often involves routing individuals through countries with visa-on-arrival options for Indian nationals.
    • Exploiting Loopholes: Agents exploit student visas and family immigration categories, as well as sham marriages and adoptions, to facilitate illegal immigration.

    What are the Reasons for Illegal Migration?

    • Economic Factors: Poverty, lack of economic opportunities, and the desire for a better standard of living push individuals to seek opportunities in other countries. The promise of opportunities, like the “American Dream,” attracts migrants.
    • Political and Religious Persecution: Individuals flee their home countries due to political and religious persecution, seeking refuge in other nations.
    • Overpopulation and Natural Disasters: Overpopulation leading to a crisis of living space and natural disasters can force people to migrate for survival and better living conditions.
    • Existing Social Networks: Established social networks attract more migrants from similar communities, often resulting in migration through illegal routes when other options are unavailable.
    • Violence and Instability: Violence, exacerbated by gangs and the drug trade, and gender-based violence, such as honour crimes or forced marriage, drive individuals to seek safety elsewhere.

    What are the consequences of such Migration?

    • Clashes and Political Instability: Illegal migration can lead to clashes between locals and migrants due to competition over scarce resources, economic opportunities, and cultural dominance, resulting in political instability.
    • Economic Exploitation: Undocumented migrants are vulnerable to economic exploitation, often facing informal, temporary, or unprotected jobs and even forced labour due to a lack of legal safeguards. Illegal immigration can also increase the labour supply, impacting the wages and employment of some domestic workers.
    • Strain on Resources and Infrastructure: The influx of undocumented settlers can strain public services like healthcare, education, and transportation, while unregulated settlements may emerge with hazardous living conditions. A massive influx of immigrants can lead to increased consumption, creating crises as authorities struggle to maintain living conditions and provide housing and services.
    • Increased Crime and Security Concerns: Illegal migrants may engage in illegal and anti-national activities, such as fraudulently acquiring identity cards, participating in trans-border smuggling, and other crimes, undermining the rule of law. Organized criminal groups may also be involved in smuggling migrants across borders.
    • Violation of Human Rights: Illegal migrants are vulnerable to inhumane conditions and criminal offences like assault, rape, or extortion during their journeys or in destination regions2. They also face the risk of detention and deportation and may be mistreated during detention, such as having poor living conditions.
    • Social Tensions: Large-scale illegal migration can distort existing demographics and pose a threat to existing socio-cultural identity, potentially leading to xenophobic, ultranationalist, and racial manifestations.

    Way forward: 

    • Strengthening Border and Immigration Controls – Enhance surveillance, biometric tracking, and cooperation with international agencies to curb illegal entry and human smuggling networks.
    • Regulating Migration Pathways – Streamline legal migration channels, enforce stricter penalties on fraudulent agents, and promote awareness campaigns to educate potential migrants on legal and safe alternatives.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q How does illegal transborder migration pose a threat to India’s security? Discuss the strategies to curb this, bringing out the factors which give impetus to such migration. (UPSC IAS/2014)

  • India studying US memo on ‘modifying’ sanctions waiver for Chabahar Port

    Why in the News?

    A day after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order that might lead to sanctions on India for investing in Iran’s Chabahar port, the Indian government did not comment on the order or its impact.

    How will the potential modification by the US impact India’s Chabahar Port project?

    • Increased Uncertainty: The potential withdrawal or modification of the U.S. waiver could put India’s long-term investment and operations at Chabahar at risk.
    • Disruptions in Operations: If U.S. sanctions extend to businesses involved in shipping, insurance, and logistics, Indian firms operating at Chabahar may face compliance challenges.
    • Delays in Expansion Plans: India’s plans to integrate Chabahar into the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and use it for trade with Russia and Central Asia may be significantly slowed.
    • Strategic Setback: Chabahar serves as a counterbalance to Pakistan’s Gwadar port (developed by China). Any disruption could weaken India’s strategic positioning in the region.

    What are the significance of the Chabahar Port project?

    • Strategic and Geopolitical Importance: Provides India a trade route to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan, and counters China’s influence at Gwadar Port under CPEC.
    • Economic and Trade Connectivity: Acts as a key link in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), enhancing India’s trade with Iran, Russia, and Central Asia.
    • Humanitarian and Security Role: Facilitates aid delivery to Afghanistan, strengthens India-Iran ties, and enhances India’s presence in the Indian Ocean region for maritime security.

    What will be the implications for India’s connectivity to Eurasia and Afghanistan?

    • Disruption in Trade Routes: Chabahar is India’s key route for accessing Afghanistan and Central Asia while bypassing Pakistan. U.S. sanctions could make trade difficult, impacting economic ties with these regions.
    • Humanitarian Concerns: The port has been critical in facilitating food and medical aid to Afghanistan. New restrictions could hamper India’s ability to provide humanitarian assistance.
    • Geopolitical Recalibration: If access to Chabahar becomes restricted, India may need to explore alternative routes, potentially shifting focus towards Russia and Central Asia via Iran’s Bandar Abbas port or strengthening ties with the Taliban for land-based transit through Afghanistan.

    How will India and the US address this issue in their bilateral conversations? (Way forward)

    • Diplomatic Negotiations: India is expected to lobby the U.S. for a continued waiver by emphasizing Chabahar’s role in humanitarian aid and regional stability.
    • Strategic Arguments: New Delhi could argue that Chabahar helps counterbalance China’s influence (via Gwadar and the Belt and Road Initiative) and aids the U.S. interest in regional connectivity.
    • Possible Compromise: India might propose limiting Chabahar’s use for trade with Afghanistan while finding alternative routes for trade with Russia and Central Asia to align with U.S. geopolitical concerns.
    • Bilateral Trade-Offs: India may leverage its growing defense and economic partnerships with the U.S. to seek exemptions, similar to the earlier waiver granted under the Trump administration.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q In what ways would the ongoing US-Iran Nuclear Pact Controversy affect the national interest of India? How should India respond to its situation?(UPSC IAS/2018)

  • India must address illegal emigration with empathy and urgency

    Why in the News?

    The U.S. deporting dozens of Indians for being illegal immigrants is not unexpected or new.

    What are the reasons behind it? 

    • Illegal Immigration Enforcement: The deportations are part of intensified Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations aimed at identifying, detaining, and deporting individuals who are in the U.S. without proper documentation.
    • Large-Scale Illegal Migration – Many Indians, particularly from Gujarat, Punjab, and Haryana, attempt to enter the U.S. illegally through Mexico and Canada due to economic distress and job shortages.

    What is the potential impact of US immigration policies on Indian students and professionals?

    • Legal Migration Channels: The Indian government is keen on ensuring that legal migration channels to the U.S. for Indian nationals are not restricted by the U.S. administration. These legal routes include H-1B visas for skilled workers and visas for students.
    • Deterrence of Illegal Migration: Both the U.S. and India are engaged in deterring illegal migration while creating more avenues for legal migration from India to the U.S.
    • Increased Deportations: Deportation of Indian nationals from the United States surged by 400% in the past three years. In 2024, 1,529 Indians were deported, a significant jump from 292 in 2021.
    • Impact on Undocumented Indians: Approximately 725,000 undocumented Indians reside in the U.S., primarily from Punjab and Gujarat. As of November of the previous year, 20,407 undocumented Indians were either facing final removal orders or were held in detention centers of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

    How will this impact the USA? 

    • Labour Market Disruptions:  Deportations can create labor shortages in sectors reliant on immigrant workers, such as construction and hospitality. (Example: Indian workers contribute significantly to the U.S. IT and service industries.)
    • Diplomatic Tensions:  Large-scale deportations may strain U.S.-India relations, especially if handled insensitively. (Example: The use of military flights for deportations sparked protests from other countries like Colombia.)

    How might the deportation of Indian nationals affect the political landscape in India? 

    • Domestic Political Fallout: The deportation of thousands of Indians could become a political issue, with opposition parties blaming the government for failing to create adequate job opportunities at home.
    • Diplomatic Challenges: The mass deportations could strain India-U.S. relations, particularly if deportees face harsh treatment, triggering diplomatic interventions.
    • Public Backlash: The use of military flights and reports of inhumane treatment, such as shackling, may create anti-U.S. sentiment among the Indian public.
    • State-Level Political Implications: States with high numbers of deportees (Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana) may experience political unrest, with local governments facing pressure to provide jobs and reintegration support.
    • Rise in Anti-Illegal Migration Policies: The Indian government may be compelled to introduce stricter measures against illegal immigration and human trafficking networks, affecting those attempting to migrate illegally.
    • Impact on Indian Diaspora Relations: The large-scale return of undocumented migrants could impact remittances, economic support for families, and the broader perception of Indian migrants globally.

    What should India do? (Way forward)

    • Strengthen Domestic Employment Opportunities: Implement targeted economic reforms, boost job creation in high-migration states (Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana), and address the root causes driving illegal migration, such as agricultural distress and unemployment.
    • Enhance Public Awareness & Legal Migration Channels: Conduct awareness campaigns on the risks of illegal immigration while expanding safe and legal pathways for skilled migration through bilateral agreements with the U.S. and other countries.
    • Engage in Diplomatic & Policy Advocacy: Strengthen diplomatic efforts to ensure fair treatment of deported individuals, negotiate favourable visa policies for Indian professionals and students, and collaborate with the U.S. on workforce mobility solutions.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q ‘Indian diaspora has a decisive role to play in the politics and economy of America and European Countries’. Comment with examples. (UPSC IAS/2020)

  • [5th February 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: The U.S.’s WHO exit, a chance to reshape global health

    PYQ Relevance:

    Q) Critically examine the role of WHOin providing global health security during the Covid-19 pandemic. (UPSC CSE 2020)

     

    Mentor’s Comment: UPSC mains have always focused on Bridging Healthcare Gaps (2015), and WHO Initiatives (2020).

    The US is the largest contributor to WHO, providing about 18% of its funding. The withdrawal is expected to jeopardize critical health programs, particularly those addressing tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, and other health emergencies.

    Today’s editorial emphasizes the need for member states to collaborate more effectively in light of reduced US involvement, ensuring that global health priorities remain addressed despite funding challenges. This content can be used to present the significance of multilateral collaboration and its impact on international policy and governance with respect to Health.

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    Why in the News?

    After the USA’s withdrawal from WHO, it is time for the countries in the global south to support WHO and initiate collaborative actions to reshape the global health agenda.

    What are the Potential Impacts of the US Withdrawal from WHO?

    • Disruption of Funding and Programs: The US contributes nearly 18% of WHO’s budget (~$1 billion annually), supporting critical health programs like immunization, tuberculosis control, and pandemic preparedness.
      • The withdrawal will likely disrupt ongoing projects aimed at combating health challenges such as HIV/AIDS and polio eradication.
    • Weakened Global Health Response: WHO’s ability to coordinate responses to health crises will be significantly impaired without US support. This includes reduced resources for disease surveillance and emergency operations in regions facing outbreaks or health threats.
    • Impact on Global Health Leadership and Collaboration: The absence of the US may create a leadership vacuum within WHO, allowing other nations (e.g., China) to increase their influence.
      • This shift could alter international collaboration dynamics and lead to fragmented approaches to public health challenges.
    • Repercussions for Low-Income Countries: Marginalized communities in low-income countries may face disproportionate impacts due to reduced funding from WHO. These communities rely heavily on WHO for access to essential health services, and the withdrawal signals a deprioritization of global health initiatives, exacerbating existing inequalities.
      • The overall effectiveness of global health initiatives may decline as WHO struggles with funding constraints and could slow long-term progress toward key health goals, such as disease eradication and comprehensive vaccination programs, ultimately affecting global health security.

    How might the withdrawal reshape international health diplomacy?

    • Shift in Global Health Leadership: The absence of the US may create a leadership vacuum within WHO, potentially allowing countries like China to increase their influence in global health governance.
      • This shift could alter the dynamics of international collaboration, with other nations stepping up to fill the void left by the US.
    • Increased Geopolitical Tensions: The withdrawal could intensify competition between the US and China for influence in global health matters.
      • China’s initiatives, such as the Health Silk Road, may gain traction as it seeks to position itself as a leader in global health, thereby reshaping alliances and partnerships among countries.
    • Impact on Multilateral Cooperation: The US’s exit may weaken multilateral cooperation on critical health issues, leading to fragmented responses to global health challenges.
      • Countries may become less willing to collaborate on shared health threats without US leadership, which could hinder effective pandemic preparedness and response efforts.
    • Loss of Diplomatic Leverage: By withdrawing, the US relinquishes its role as a key influencer in shaping global health policies and initiatives.
      • This could diminish its ability to advocate for public health programs that align with its interests and values, allowing other nations to take a more prominent role in setting global health agendas.
    • Disproportionate Effects: The low-income countries that rely heavily on WHO for support may face greater challenges without US involvement.

    What reforms or changes might be necessary within WHO in light of this withdrawal?

    • Diversification of Funding Sources: WHO should encourage member states to increase their assessed contributions, which currently cover less than 20% of its budget. This could help reduce reliance on any single donor, particularly the US.
      • WHO can seek to expand its voluntary contributions from other countries and private organizations to fill the financial gap left by the US withdrawal.
    • Strengthening Governance and Accountability: Implementing more transparent financial management practices can help restore trust among member states and ensure that funds are allocated effectively.
      • Establishing an independent oversight body to review WHO’s operations and decision-making processes may help address concerns about political influence and enhance accountability.

    What opportunity do India have in this situation?

    • Increased Leadership Role: India can take a prominent leadership position within WHO, representing the Global South.
      • For Example, through the Vaccine Maitri initiative, India facilitated vaccine exports during the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrating its commitment to global health equity and influencing health policies.
    • Strengthening Domestic Capabilities: The withdrawal allows India to bolster its healthcare infrastructure and research capabilities.
      • For Example, significant investments in indigenous vaccine production, such as Covaxin and Covishield, have positioned India as a major player in global vaccine supply chains, enhancing self-reliance and healthcare outcomes.
    • Enhanced Collaboration with Emerging Economies: India can forge stronger partnerships with other emerging economies to collaboratively address global health challenges.
      • For Example, engagement with countries like Brazil and South Africa through the IBSA Dialogue Forum can focus on shared issues like antimicrobial resistance and maternal health, enhancing collective responses to public health threats.
    • Leveraging Pharmaceutical Strength: India’s robust pharmaceutical industry can fill gaps left by reduced WHO funding.
      • Known as the “pharmacy of the world,” India supplied affordable vaccines during the pandemic, reinforcing its reputation as a key player in global healthcare by continuing to produce low-cost medications.

    Way Forward: India can not only mitigate the impacts of the US withdrawal but also can significantly contribute to shaping a more equitable global health landscape.

  • How beggar-thy-neighbour policies can make global trade come to a standstill?

    Why in the News?

    In 2025, the United States’ imposition of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, exemplifies modern beggar-thy-neighbour policies.

    What is Beggar-Thy-Neighbor Policy?

    • Beggar-thy-neighbor policies refer to protectionist economic policies in which economic strategies are adopted by a country to improve its own economic situation at the expense of other nations.
    • These policies often involve protectionist measures such as tariffs, quotas, or currency devaluation, which can lead to negative repercussions for trading partners. For example, recently the USA imposed tariffs on China.

    What are the positive implications of this policy?

    • Domestic Economic Boost: Proponents argue that these policies can stimulate the domestic economy by protecting local industries and jobs. For example, tariffs on imports can encourage consumers to buy domestic products, potentially reducing unemployment in key sectors.
    • National Security: Supporters often cite national security concerns, suggesting that certain industries need protection from foreign competition to maintain a robust domestic economy.
    • Encouragement of Exports: By depreciating the national currency, a country can make its exports cheaper and more competitive in international markets, which is believed to enhance demand for domestic goods abroad.

    What do the critics say?

    • Global Economic Decline – The U.S.-China Trade War (2018-Present) illustrates how protectionist policies can escalate into retaliatory actions.
      • The U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, prompting China to retaliate with its own tariffs, disrupting global supply chains and reducing international trade volumes.
    • Higher Consumer Prices – The U.S. Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum (2018) under Section 232 increased production costs for American industries relying on these metals, such as automobile and construction sectors.
      • A study by the Federal Reserve found that these tariffs cost U.S. consumers and businesses over $1.4 billion per month.
    • Historical Warnings – The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1930) in the U.S. significantly raised tariffs on imports, leading to retaliation from trading partners like Canada and European nations.
      • This contributed to a sharp decline in global trade and worsened the Great Depression. Global exports fell by nearly two-thirds between 1929 and 1934, demonstrating the adverse effects of widespread protectionism.
    • Reduced Innovation and Efficiency – India’s License Raj (1947–1991) is a prime example of how excessive protectionism stifled innovation. The heavily regulated economy limited foreign competition, leading to inefficiencies, outdated technology, and slow economic growth.
      • Post-1991 economic liberalization, which reduced trade barriers, spurred competition, efficiency, and innovation across various industries.

    Which countries use this policy? 

    • U.S. Tariffs and Trade War – Under the “America First” policy, the U.S. imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods in 2018 to shield domestic industries. In response, China introduced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, escalating a trade war that disrupted global markets.
    • China’s Currency Policies – China has been accused of currency manipulation to maintain trade advantages. In 2019, the U.S. Treasury labeled China a currency manipulator after the People’s Bank of China allowed the yuan to depreciate, making Chinese exports cheaper and imports more expensive.
    • Japan’s Currency Interventions – To boost exports during economic stagnation, Japan’s central bank has weakened the yen through market interventions. While this makes Japanese exports more competitive, it raises import costs for domestic consumers and affects trading partners negatively.
    • Germany’s Eurozone Trade Advantage – Germany’s strong export-driven economy, supported by fiscal discipline and manufacturing strength, has been seen as creating imbalances within the Eurozone. During financial crises, weaker European economies struggle to compete, intensifying economic disparities.

    Does India use this policy? 

    In recent times, India has indeed engaged in practices that can be characterized as beggar-thy-neighbor policies, particularly in the context of trade and economic strategy.

    • Tariffs on Imports: India has imposed tariffs on various goods to protect its domestic industries.
      • For instance, in 2018, India raised import duties on a range of products, including electronics and agricultural goods, to encourage local manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign imports. Such measures can be seen as attempts to bolster India’s economy at the expense of exporting countries.
    • Restrictions on Chinese Imports: Following geopolitical tensions, India has implemented stricter regulations and tariffs on imports from China.
      • This includes bans on several Chinese apps (like tiktok) and increased scrutiny of Chinese investments.

    Way forward: 

    • Balanced Trade Policies: Countries should adopt a mix of strategic protectionism and open trade to safeguard domestic industries while preventing trade wars.
      • Strengthening WTO mechanisms and engaging in fair trade negotiations can ensure economic stability.
    • Focus on Competitiveness: Instead of relying on protectionist measures, nations should invest in innovation, skill development, and infrastructure to enhance global competitiveness, ensuring sustainable economic growth without harming trading partners.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q What are the key areas of reform if the WTO has to survive in the present context of ‘Trade War’, especially keeping in mind the interest of India? (UPSC IAS/2018)

  • [1st February 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Four years on, Myanmar and its continuing nightmare

    PYQ Relevance:

    Q) Analyze internal security threats and transborder crimes along Myanmar, Bangladesh and Pakistan borders including Line of Control (LoC). Also discuss the role played by various security forces in this regard. (UPSC CSE 2020)

    Q) ‘India is an age-old friend of Sri Lanka.’ Discuss India’s role in the recent crisis in Sri Lanka in the light of the preceding statement. (UPSC CSE 2022)

     

    Mentor’s Comment: UPSC mains have always focused on Crossborder insurgency (2019), and Role of India in Southeast Asia (2017).

    The ongoing violence in Myanmar, human rights abuses, and political repression have left millions in dire conditions, with over 6,000 civilians killed and 3.5 million displaced. According to the World Bank, by 2025, around 19.9 million people—one-third of the population—are expected to require humanitarian aid, including 6.3 million children in Myanmar.

     

    As Myanmar marks four years since the military coup, today’s editorial highlights the urgent need for global attention and action. The international community’s response has been inadequate, failing to effectively challenge the junta’s grip on power. This content can be used to present Neighbourhood Policy or South Asian Democratic Crises in your Mains Answers.

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    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    There are several significant developments surrounding the ongoing crisis in Myanmar as it marks the fourth anniversary of the military coup.

    [1st February 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Four years on, Myanmar and its continuing nightmare

    What has been the impact of the military coup on Myanmar’s political landscape?

    The military coup in Myanmar on February 1, 2021, has drastically altered the political landscape, leading to instability and conflict. 

    • Return to Military Rule: The coup reversed a decade-long democratic transition by overthrowing the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), resulting in widespread protests and civil unrest against the junta.
    • Rise in Civil Unrest and Resistance: The coup sparked massive protests and a civil disobedience movement, leading to the formation of a shadow government, the National Unity Government (NUG), by ousted lawmakers.
      • This has resulted in armed conflict with various ethnic groups and newly formed resistance forces, creating a state of civil war.
    • Human Rights Violations and Humanitarian Crisis: The military’s brutal crackdowns have led to widespread human rights abuses, including killings and arbitrary detentions. Millions have been displaced, exacerbating existing ethnic conflicts, particularly affecting the Rohingya population. The international response has largely failed to hold the military accountable.

    What are the prospects for Myanmar’s economy in 2025 considering the current socio political turmoil?

    • The World Bank forecasts a 1% contraction in Myanmar’s GDP for the fiscal year ending in March 2025, marking a significant downgrade from earlier growth expectations.
      • By 2025, around 19.9 million people—one-third of the population—are expected to require humanitarian aid, including 6.3 million children.
    • Since the military coup in February 2021, armed conflicts and natural disasters have disrupted production across sectors like agriculture and manufacturing. Recent floods have further damaged infrastructure.
    • About 25% of the population faces acute food insecurity, driven by high inflation rates projected at 26% annually. Many households struggle to afford basic necessities due to rising food prices.
    • The long-term economic outlook remains grim, with subdued growth expected even if conflict levels stabilize. Further violence or natural disasters could worsen economic conditions.

    How has the role of ASEAN evolved in addressing the Myanmar crisis?

    • Five-Point Consensus: In April 2021, ASEAN introduced a Five-Point Consensus calling for an end to violence, dialogue, humanitarian aid, and a special envoy to mediate. However, its effectiveness has been limited due to lack of inclusivity and pressure on the military junta.
    • Trioka Mechanism: ASEAN created the Trioka Mechanism to monitor the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus. This group includes Indonesia, Laos, and Malaysia but faces concerns about its ability to address Myanmar’s complex issues.
    • Humanitarian Response: ASEAN has held meetings to improve humanitarian aid delivery but struggles with implementation challenges.
    • International Engagement: External influences, like those from the EU and UN, have shaped ASEAN’s approach. Critics argue that ASEAN’s preference for dialogue over sanctions has not produced significant results.

    Way Forward:

    • The UN and ASEAN have struggled to resolve the Myanmar crisis, prompting experts to call on neighboring countries—China, India, Thailand, Bangladesh, and Laos—to take action, as the situation threatens their interests.
      • However, challenges persist: borders with India and Bangladesh are controlled by ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), trust issues exist between India and China, and India-Bangladesh relations are strained.
      • This makes it difficult for these nations to reach a consensus on how to encourage peace.
    • Thailand, as a significant ASEAN member, could play a crucial role but faces its own limitations.
      • Meanwhile, China’s influence has grown since the coup, and experts suggest that Myanmar’s people should not rely on external help; instead, their leaders must prioritize dialogue over violence to avoid further suffering.