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Subject: International Relations

  • India seeks Tariff Elimination on key items in CEPA Talks with South Korea

    Why in the News?

    • India wants, South Korea to eliminate tariffs on items such as varieties of meat, milk, fruits, fish, stones, yarn, and petroleum products.
      • These items were previously exempted or protected against steep cuts in the India-Korea Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA).

    What is CEPA?

    Details
    Definition A CEPA is a broad trade agreement that encompasses trade in goods and services, investments, intellectual property rights, and economic cooperation.
    Key Components
    • Trade in Goods: Reduction/elimination of tariffs and non-tariff barriers.
    • Trade in Services: Liberalization of service sectors.
    • Investment: Protection and promotion of investments.
    • Intellectual Property Rights (IPR): Strengthening protection of IPR.
    • Economic Cooperation: Collaboration on economic and technical aspects.
    • Dispute Resolution: Mechanisms for resolving disputes.
    Objectives
    • Enhance bilateral trade.
    • Promote investment.
    • Foster economic integration.
    • Encourage innovation and economic growth.
    Examples
    • India-Japan CEPA: Signed in 2011, focuses on tariff reduction, service trade liberalization, and investment promotion.
    • India-Mauritius CECPA: Effective from April 2021, includes provisions on trade in goods, services, and investment.
    • India-UAE CEPA: Entered into force on May 1, 2022
    Significance for India
    • Economic Growth: Provides new markets for Indian goods and services.
    • Job Creation: Increased trade and investment can create jobs.
    • Technological Advancements: Access to new technologies and best practices.
    • Strategic Partnerships: Strengthens economic and strategic ties.
    Challenges
    • Implementation Issues: Requires robust legal and institutional frameworks.
    • Domestic Industry Impact: Concerns about increased competition.
    • Regulatory Harmonization: Differences in regulatory standards can pose challenges.

    India-South Korea CEPA: A quick recap

    • The India-South Korea CEPA was signed in August 2009 and implemented in January 2010.
    • It covers trade in goods, investments, services, and bilateral cooperation.
    • Tariff Concessions:
      • India offered tariff elimination or concessions on 83.8% of tariff lines from South Korea.
      • While South Korea offered concessions on 93.2% of tariff lines.

    Upcoming Negotiations

    • Trade Deficit Focus: Narrowing the trade deficit with South Korea is high on India’s agenda.
    • Stakeholder Involvement: Indian industry stakeholders have been provided with a draft request list and asked to suggest more items for tariff cuts or propose deletions if needed.
    • Standards and Technical Barriers: The Department of Commerce has requested the industry to share issues related to SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary) and TBT (Technical Barriers to Trade) standards faced while exporting to South Korea.

    Back2Basics:

    Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Measures:

    • SPS measures are protocols implemented by countries to protect human, animal, and plant life from diseases, pests, and contaminants. 
    • These measures are primarily focused on ensuring the safety of food products and preventing the spread of diseases and pests across borders.
    • SPS measures must be based on scientific evidence and risk assessments to ensure they are appropriate and effective.
    • Examples: quarantine requirements for imported plants and animals, limits on pesticide residues in food, and import bans from regions affected by specific diseases.

    Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT):

    • TBT are regulations and standards related to product safety, quality, and environmental impact.
    • They aim to protect human health and safety, animal and plant life, the environment, and to prevent deceptive practices.
    • These measures should not create unnecessary obstacles to international trade and must be transparent and non-discriminatory.
    • Examples: Labeling requirements for food products, safety standards for electrical appliances, and environmental regulations for vehicle emissions.

    Major Issue: Trade Deficit Concerns

    • Trade Deficit Focus: Reducing the trade deficit with South Korea is a key discussion point for India.
      • Before CEPA (2007-09), India’s average exports to South Korea were $3.4 billion, with imports at $7.3 billion, leading to an average trade deficit of $4 billion.
    • Trade Statistics: In 2023-24, India’s imports from South Korea were $21.13 billion, while exports were only $6.41 billion.
    • Post-CEPA Data: After CEPA (2022-24), average exports increased to $7.1 billion, and imports surged to $19.9 billion, resulting in an average trade deficit of $12.8 billion.
    • GTRI Analysis: The Global Trade and Research Initiative (GTRI) report indicates a 220% increase in the trade deficit from the pre-CEPA period to the post-CEPA period.

    PYQ:

    [2015] The terms ‘Agreement on Agriculture’, ‘Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures’ and Peace Clause’ appear in the news frequently in the context of the affairs of the:

    (a) Food and Agriculture Organization

    (b) United Nations Framework Conference on Climate Change

    (c) World Trade Organization

    (d) United Nations Environment Programme

  • IMF | Overlords of the developing world

    Why in the news?

    Once again, mass protests in Kenya, where at least 30 people were fatally shot by police, highlight opposition to an IMF-supported finance Bill proposing essential goods tax hikes.

    Bretton Woods Conference of 1944

    • The Bretton Woods Conference was held in 1944 in New Hampshire, USA. It established the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
    • The IMF was designed to aid economic development and promote monetary cooperation and stability globally.
    • Criticism: It has been criticized for reflecting and perpetuating power dynamics favouring Western financial interests, with voting rights disproportionately allocated based on financial contributions rather than equal representation.

    Functions of IMF and Recent Challenges Faced by Developing Countries

    • Functions: The IMF aims to provide financial assistance and policy advice to member countries facing balance of payments problems.

    Challenges:

    • Austerity Measures: IMF loans often come with conditions such as austerity measures (like tax hikes and spending cuts) that can be unpopular and detrimental to social services and economic stability.
    • Dependency: Many developing countries face criticism for being overly dependent on IMF loans, which come with stringent conditions that may not always align with local priorities.
    • Public Backlash: There is often a public and political backlash against IMF policies perceived as imposing Western economic ideologies without adequate consideration for local contexts.

    SAP (Structural Adjustment Programs) and Its Impacts

    • Definition: SAPs are economic policies imposed by the IMF and World Bank on developing countries in exchange for loans.

    Impacts:

    • Economic Restructuring: SAPs typically involve privatization, deregulation, and liberalization policies aimed at restructuring national economies towards export-led growth.
    • Social Consequences: They often lead to job losses, reduced public spending on health and education, and increased poverty and inequality.
    • Criticism of SAPs: SAPs have been criticized for exacerbating social inequalities and benefiting Western financial interests over local populations.

    Way forward: 

    • Policy Transparency: The IMF could enhance transparency in its loan conditions and negotiations, ensuring that the terms and impacts of loans are clearly communicated to the public and local stakeholders.
    • Local Consultation: Before implementing major policy changes or austerity measures, the IMF could mandate extensive consultation with local governments, civil society organizations, and affected communities to ensure that proposed measures align with local economic priorities and social needs.

    Mains PYQ: 

    Q The World Bank and the IMF, collectively known as the Bretton Woods Institutions, are the two inter-governmental pillars supporting the structure of the world’s economic and financial order. Superficially, the World Bank and the IMF exhibit many common characteristics, yet their role, functions and mandates are distinctly different. Elucidate. (UPSC IAS/2013)

  • China’s ‘Five Principles’ of Foreign Policy

    Why in the News? 

    China is set to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, a foreign policy concept initially outlined in a 1954 agreement with India, with special events scheduled for Friday, June 28th.

    How it started?

    • Historical Context: India attained independence from British rule in 1947, and the People’s Republic of China was established in 1949 after a civil war victory by the Chinese communists. Nehru aimed to establish good relations with China based on trust and mutual respect, a sentiment reciprocated by China initially.
    • Origins and Proposal: The Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, known as Panchsheel in India, were proposed by Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai during bilateral talks with India over Tibet in 1954. This initiative was favored by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru.
    • Panchsheel Agreement: The agreement, formally titled “The Agreement on Trade and Intercourse with Tibet Region,” was signed on April 29, 1954. It was intended to enhance trade and cooperation, establishing trade centers and pilgrimage routes while recognizing Tibet as part of China.
    • Principles: The five guiding principles laid out in the agreement were mutual respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, mutual non-aggression, mutual non-interference, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence.
    • Bandung Conference: The Five Principles featured prominently in the 1955 Bandung Conference in Indonesia, which included 29 Asian and African countries. The principles were co-opted into a 10-point declaration and later became central to the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM).

    Present Scenario:

    • After the India-China War of 1962: The principles of Panchsheel were severely undermined by the Sino-Indian War in 1962, leading to criticism of Nehru for misjudging Chinese intentions.
    • China’s Foreign Policy Shift: Over the past three decades, especially under President Xi Jinping, China has adopted a more aggressive foreign policy. This includes territorial claims in the South China Sea and hostile situations with neighbouring countries.
    • China’s Relations with the U.S: China’s relationship with the United States has been marked by hostility, characterized by trade and diplomatic challenges to American dominance globally.
    • India-China Relations Today: Since 2020, Indian and Chinese forces have been in a standoff along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh, with repeated but unsuccessful attempts to resolve the conflict.
    • Commemoration of 5 Principles by China: Despite the current strained relations, China commemorates the 70th anniversary of the Five Principles with a forward-looking theme, emphasizing building a community with a shared future for mankind.

    Way forward: (What can India do?)

    • Engage in Diplomatic Dialogue: Despite historical tensions, maintaining open lines of diplomatic communication with China is crucial. India can continue efforts to engage in dialogue at multiple levels to manage and resolve bilateral disputes, including the ongoing situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh.
    • Strengthen Regional Alliances: Enhancing partnerships with other countries in the region and beyond can provide India with strategic leverage. Strengthening alliances through economic cooperation, military partnerships, and cultural exchanges can help counterbalance China’s influence and foster stability in the region.
    • Focus on Economic and Technological Development: Investing in economic growth and technological advancement can bolster India’s position on the global stage. Developing robust infrastructure, promoting innovation and entrepreneurship, and advancing sustainable development goals can strengthen India’s resilience and competitiveness in the face of geopolitical challenges.

    Mains PYQ: 

    Q China is using its economic relations and positive trade surplus as tools to develop potential military power status in Asia’, In the light of this statement, discuss its impact on India as her neighbor. (UPSC IAS/2017)

  • India achieves an ‘outstanding outcome’ in FATF mutual evaluation 2023-24 

    Why in the News?

    • India has achieved an outstanding outcome in the 2023-24 Mutual Evaluation by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).
      • India is placed in the “regular follow-up” category, a distinction shared by only four other G-20 countries.

    FATF Evaluation:

    The reason behind India’s Achievements

    • High Level of Compliance: The FATF stated that India reached a high level of technical compliance with its requirements.
    • Effective Regimes: India’s AML (anti-money laundering), CFT (countering the financing of terrorism), and CPF (counter-proliferation financing) regimes achieved good results.
    • International Cooperation: Notable achievements include international cooperation, access to basic and beneficial ownership information, use of financial intelligence, and depriving criminals of their assets.

    Need Improvement

    • Non-Financial Sectors: The FATF noted that improvements are needed to strengthen the supervision and implementation of preventive measures in some non-financial sectors.
    • Prosecution Delays: India needs to address delays in concluding ML (money laundering) and TF (terrorist financing) prosecutions.
    • Non-Profit Sector Risks: Ensure CFT measures prevent the non-profit sector from being abused for TF, including conducting outreach to NPOs on their TF risks.

    Mitigation Efforts taken

    • Mitigating ML/TF Risks: FATF recognized India’s efforts in mitigating risks from ML/TF, including corruption, fraud, and organized crime.
    • Digital Economy Transition: Effective measures have been implemented to transition from a cash-based to a digital economy, reducing ML/TF risks.
    • JAM Trinity Implementation: The JAM (Jan Dhan, Aadhaar, Mobile) Trinity, along with stringent cash transaction regulations, has increased financial inclusion and digital transactions, making them more traceable.

    About Financial Action Task Force (FATF)

    • FATF was established in 1989 through the initiative of the G7 nations.
    • Its Secretariat is headquartered at the OECD headquarters in Paris, France.
    • FATF conducts 3 Plenary meetings during each of its 12-month rotating presidencies.
    • As of 2019, FATF consists of 37 member jurisdictions.

    India’s Engagement with FATF

    • Observer Status: India became an Observer at FATF in 2006, marking the beginning of its association with the organization.
    • Full Membership: On June 25, 2010, India officially became the 34th country to attain full membership in FATF, signifying its active participation and commitment to the organization’s objectives.

    Understanding the Mutual Evaluation Process

    • FATF’s mutual evaluation assesses countries’ frameworks against money laundering and terrorist financing, reviewing compliance with its 40 recommendations and effectiveness, resulting in a report with strengths, weaknesses, and improvement suggestions.

    FATF’s Evaluation of India

    • Comprehensive Assessment: FATF’s evaluation of India encompasses various aspects, including the nation’s legal framework, regulatory system, law enforcement efforts, and international collaboration.
    • Alignment with Global Standards: Central agencies in India have been actively working to ensure that the country’s anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing laws align with international standards and that their practical implementation is effective.

    Back2Basics: FATF Grey and Black List

    FATF maintains two primary lists to identify countries with deficiencies in their anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing (AML/CTF) regimes: the Grey List and the Black List.

    Grey List (Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring): 

    It includes countries that have strategic deficiencies in their AML/CTF regimes but have committed to resolving these issues swiftly within agreed timeframes. These jurisdictions are subject to increased monitoring by the FATF. Ex. Turkey, Panama etc. (Pakistan and UAE have exited this list.)

    Impact:

    • Countries on the Grey List are required to work closely with the FATF to address the identified deficiencies.
    • Being on the Grey List can lead to economic repercussions such as reduced foreign investment and increased scrutiny from financial institutions and regulators globally.
    • The FATF regularly reviews the progress of these countries and updates the list accordingly.

    Black List (High-Risk Jurisdictions subject to a Call for Action): 

    It includes countries with significant strategic deficiencies in their AML/CTF regimes and have not made sufficient progress in addressing these issues. These jurisdictions are subject to a call for action to protect the international financial system from the risks emanating from these countries.

    Impact:

    • Countries on the Black List face severe economic and financial consequences. They are subject to enhanced due diligence and, in the most serious cases, counter-measures by FATF member states.
    • This listing can result in limited access to the international financial system such as IMF, World Bank; reduced foreign investment, and increased difficulty in conducting international business.

    Current Black List Countries:

    • North Korea
    • Iran
    • Myanmar (Burma) (added in February 2023)

     

    PYQ:

    [2021] Discuss how emerging technologies and globalisation contribute to money laundering. Elaborate measures to tackle the problem of money laundering both at national and international levels.

  • In great power rivalry across Eurasia, an opening for India 

    Why in the News?

    The significant upheaval caused by the increasing interdependence of European and Asian theatres is accompanied by the rise of influential middle powers. India can seize this opportunity to enhance its national power.

    Complex and Deepening Interconnections between European and Asian Security:

    • Asia’s Active Role in European Geopolitics: Unlike the colonial era, Asian states now actively influence the balance of power in Europe. Both Russia and Western Europe are engaging Asia to shape the narrative on the Ukraine war.
    • Asian Arms Supply to Europe: Asia has emerged as a major supplier of arms in European conflicts, with North Korea supplying ammunition to Russia and South Korean arms flowing to Ukraine.
    • Asian Agency in Great Power Dynamics: Putin’s visit to North Korea and Vietnam highlights the increased agency of Asian states in leveraging great power rivalries for their own strategic benefits.
    • Impact on Western Alliances: The increasing agency of Asian countries like North Korea and South Korea affects the dynamics of Western alliances, with the US seeking stronger ties with South Korea and Japan in response to Russia’s actions.

    Scope for a Strategic Window:

    • Increased Asian Maneuverability: Countries like Vietnam are skillfully balancing their relationships with China, the US, and Russia, enhancing their strategic autonomy and influence in the region.
    • Western Dilemmas: The US is facing challenges in balancing its strategic focus between Europe and Asia, with debates on whether to prioritize the Ukraine conflict or the challenge posed by China.
    • Europe’s Defence Responsibilities: Both Biden and Trump agree on the need for Europe to take greater responsibility for its own defense, urging Eurasian nations to balance Russia and China.
    • Opportunities for Middle Powers: Middle powers like India have a unique opportunity to enhance their national power and military capabilities through strategic partnerships with the US and its allies. This includes modernizing India’s defense industrial base and expanding arms production, crucial for achieving strategic autonomy.

    Way forward: 

    • Engage with Key Allies: India should Deepen strategic partnerships with the US, Japan, Australia, and South Korea to enhance security cooperation and joint defense initiatives. 
      • These partnerships can provide India with access to advanced military technology and training, as well as opportunities for joint exercises and intelligence sharing.
    • Leverage International Platforms: India must actively participate in international platforms like the Quad and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) to strengthen India’s role in regional security and disaster resilience efforts.

    Mains question for practice: 

    Q Discuss the complex and deepening interconnections between European and Asian security in the current geopolitical landscape. How can India leverage these dynamics to enhance its national power?  15M 

  • It’s time for India to reclaim its voice on Tibet

    Why in the News? 

    A U.S. lawmaker delegation’s visit to Dharamshala closely followed the passage of the ‘Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Dispute Act’ in Congress, awaiting Biden’s approval.

    About the delegation on ‘Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Dispute Act’ 

    • Legislative Background: The U.S. Congress passed the ‘Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Dispute Act,’ emphasizing support for Tibetan autonomy and human rights. 
      • The delegation’s visit to Dharamshala, India, followed this legislative action to underscore U.S. commitment to Tibetan freedom.
    • Delegation Composition and Purpose: The delegation included bipartisan U.S. lawmakers who were co-authors of the Act, invited by the Central Tibetan Administration.
      • Their visit aimed to advocate for restarting dialogue between the Dalai Lama’s representatives and Beijing, stalled since 2010.
    • India’s Diplomatic Calculus: Hosting the U.S. delegation amidst ongoing tensions with China signals India’s nuanced diplomacy in managing its relations with both nations. 
      • It reflects India’s stance on Tibet as sensitive, balancing its traditional policy of non-interference with growing international scrutiny.
    • Geopolitical Implications: The delegation’s visit raises geopolitical questions about India’s sovereignty and diplomatic independence in the face of U.S.-China strategic competition.
      • It underscores India’s role in regional stability and global human rights discourse, impacting its strategic partnerships and international standing.

    Challenges and weaknesses involved        

    • Diplomatic Sensitivities: India faces challenges in balancing its historical support for Tibetan refugees with its current diplomatic relations with China, a crucial economic and strategic partner. 
      • Hosting U.S. lawmakers advocating for Tibetan autonomy could strain India-China relations, given Beijing’s sensitivity to international interference on Tibet-related issues.
    • Domestic Perception and Political Messaging: Allowing U.S. lawmakers to publicly advocate for Tibetan independence in India could be perceived domestically as compromising India’s stance on sovereignty and non-interference in internal matters. 
      • There is a risk of domestic backlash or political opposition questioning the government’s handling of sensitive foreign policy issues, particularly regarding Tibet and China.
    • Impact on Bilateral Relations: The visit and the Act may lead to diplomatic friction between India and China, potentially affecting bilateral cooperation in various domains, including trade, defense, and regional stability. 
      • China’s response to perceived foreign interference on Tibet could escalate tensions, impacting broader regional dynamics and India’s strategic autonomy.

    Future Scope (Way forward):

    • International Advocacy and Diplomatic Engagement: The U.S. delegation’s visit and advocacy for the Tibet-China Dispute Act highlight ongoing international interest and support for Tibetan autonomy. 
      • The future scope involves continued diplomatic engagement by global stakeholders to advocate for human rights and autonomy for Tibetans, potentially influencing China’s policies.
    • India’s Strategic Positioning: India may explore a nuanced approach to balance its historical support for Tibetan refugees with its current diplomatic relations with China. 
      • Future scope includes India asserting its stance on Tibet in international forums while managing bilateral relations with China to avoid escalation and maintain regional stability.

    Mains question for practice: 

    Q The recent visit of a delegation of U.S. lawmakers to Dharamshala, closely following the passage of the ‘Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Dispute Act’ in the U.S. Congress, has brought forth significant diplomatic challenges and implications for India.15M

    Mains PYQ: 

    Q “The USA is facing an existential threat in the form of China, that is much more challenging than the erstwhile Soviet Union.” Explain. (UPSC IAS/2021)

  • US Seeks Accountability and Institutional Reforms from India Amid Pannun Issue

    Why in the News?

    India is considering potential institutional reforms in light of the Pannun issue and alleged assassination attempts.

    • The US Deputy Secretary emphasized the US seeks accountability from the Indian government and consistently requests updates on the investigation.

    What is the Pannun Case?

    The Pannun case involves an alleged foiled plot to assassinate Khalistani separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun on American soil. Here are the key points:

    Background:

    • Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, who holds dual citizenship of the US and Canada, is wanted in India on terror charges.
    • In November last year, US federal prosecutors charged Indian national Nikhil Gupta with working alongside an Indian government employee in the plot to kill Pannun in New York.
    • Following these allegations, India appointed a high-level inquiry committee to investigate the inputs provided by the US regarding the plot.

    US Position:

    • The US has consistently pressed India for updates on the investigation.
    • US Deputy Secretary of State emphasized seeking accountability from the Indian government and raised the issue directly at senior levels during discussions with Indian counterparts.
    • The US seeks transparency and accountability in the case.

     

    What is the Khalistan Conspiracy?

    • The Khalistan movement is a separatist movement aiming to establish a sovereign state called Khalistan (Land of the Khalsa) in the Punjab region of India and Pakistan.

    During the Khalistan movement, several significant events shaped its trajectory:

    1. Operation Blue Star (1984): The Indian government launched a military operation to flush out Sikh militants who had taken refuge in the Golden Temple complex in Amritsar. The operation resulted in heavy casualties and damage to the temple, leading to widespread anger among Sikhs.
    2. Assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi (1984): In retaliation for Operation Blue Star, two Sikh bodyguards assassinated Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. This event triggered anti-Sikh riots across India, resulting in the deaths of thousands of Sikhs.
    3. 1985 Punjab Accord: The Indian government and moderate Sikh leaders reached an agreement known as the Punjab Accord. It aimed to address Sikh grievances by granting greater autonomy to Punjab and recognizing the Sikh identity. However, hardline separatists rejected this accord.
    4. Continued Violence (1980s): The 1980s witnessed violent clashes between Sikh militants and security forces. Bombings, assassinations, and attacks on civilians became common. The insurgency intensified, leading to a cycle of violence.
    5. Air India Flight 182 Bombing (1985): A bomb planted by Khalistani militants exploded on Air India Flight 182, killing all 329 passengers and crew. This remains one of the deadliest aviation-related terrorist acts in history.
    6. Decline and Suppression (1990s): By the early 1990s, the Khalistan movement lost momentum due to crackdowns by security forces, factionalism, and disillusionment among Sikhs. Many militants surrendered or were killed.

     

    Recent rise of events

    • Diaspora Influence: The Sikh diaspora, particularly in countries like the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, plays a significant role. These communities maintain strong ties to Punjab and actively advocate for Khalistan, using social media platforms to amplify their message.
    • Social Media: The widespread use of social media allows pro-Khalistan activists to connect, organize, and spread their ideology globally. Online platforms provide a powerful tool for mobilization and recruitment.
    • Leadership: Figures like Amritpal Singh have emerged as charismatic leaders, galvanizing support among disaffected Sikhs. Their influence extends beyond geographical boundaries, inspiring followers both in India and abroad.

    PYQ:

    [2016] Has the formation of linguistic states strengthened the cause of Indian unity?

  • India needs the anchor of a National Security Strategy 

    Why in the news? 

    The newly elected National Democratic Alliance government is confronted with several longstanding and complex national security issues.

    Strategic Relations with the US and Competition with China:

    • China’s Multifaceted Challenges: China poses an unprecedented array of interconnected challenges, including a significant naval build-up, geoeconomic clout in South Asia, and leverage in global supply chains.
    • Strategic Relations with the US: India must navigate its strategic partnership with the United States while managing competition with China.
    • Global Conflicts Impact: Distant conflicts, such as those in Ukraine and Gaza, reveal new technologies and tactics of war that could spread to India’s neighbourhood, influencing its strategic relations and defence strategies.

    Challenges Involved in the near future for the Indian Government:

    • Decisions on Military Investments: The government must decide on key defence projects, such as building another aircraft carrier and implementing theaterisation.
    • Holistic National Security: There is a need to step back and consider national security holistically, rather than making piecemeal decisions that could waste resources and undermine national goals.
    • Managing Strategic Risks: Addressing strategic risks like climate change, pandemics, and China’s growing influence requires coordinated, long-term policy efforts.
    • Synchronizing Efforts: Various arms of the government, including the military and national security agencies, need to synchronize their efforts more effectively.

    Blueprint for Expanding Power:

    • Comprehensive Strategic Assessment: A National Security Strategy (NSS) would compel the government to thoroughly review threats, opportunities, and global security trends.
    • Framework for Long-Term Planning: An NSS would provide a coherent framework for long-term strategic planning, helping to allocate resources effectively and develop necessary military capabilities and international partnerships.
    • Signaling Intent to Allies and Adversaries: An NSS would clarify India’s strategic intent, signaling its role as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean and its stance on regional security issues.
    • Coordinated National Security Efforts: An NSS would align the efforts of different national security agencies and military branches, fostering better coordination and integration.

    Issue of Accountability:

    • Transparency and Accountability: An NSS would serve as a tool to ensure that the government’s policies are transparent and accountable to Parliament and the citizens.
    • Adherence to Political Leadership’s Intent: It would help ensure that the bureaucracy adheres to the political leadership’s strategic direction.
    • Public Document: A strong NSS should be a public document, endorsed by the Prime Minister, to synchronize efforts across the government and signal political intent both domestically and internationally.
    • Rational Decision-Making: An NSS would help identify trade-offs and opportunity costs, enabling political leaders to make informed, rational decisions for long-term national growth and security.

    Conclusion: Develop a coherent strategic framework within the NSS that outlines India’s national security objectives, priorities, and methodologies for achieving them. This framework should guide decision-making on defense investments, international partnerships, and response strategies to global challenges like climate change and pandemics.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q What introduces friction into the ties between India and the United States is that Washington is still unable to find for India a position in its global strategy, which would satisfy India’s National self-esteem. (UPSC IAS/2019)

  • ICC issues arrest warrants for Russian defence leaders 

    Why in the news?

    On Monday, June 24, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for former Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and current Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov for “alleged international crimes” related to the Ukraine war.

    Who are the Russian leaders and what effect does the move have on them?

    • Sergei Shoigu: Former Russian Defence Minister, key ally of Putin, led the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, removed from his post in May 2024.
    • Valery Gerasimov: Current Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, Deputy Defence Minister since November 2012, seen as the most powerful man in the government after Putin and Shoigu.
    • Impact on Shoigu and Gerasimov: Both have suffered reputational damage since the war began, criticized by Russian nationalists for failing to swiftly win the war against Ukraine.

    What do the ICC charges say?

    • Charges Against Shoigu and Gerasimov: Directing attacks at civilian objects, causing excessive incidental harm to civilians or damage to civilian objects.
    • Responsibility: The two officials bear individual criminal responsibility for their actions, ordering the commission of crimes, and failing to exercise proper control over their forces.
    • Specific Acts: Missile strikes against Ukrainian electric infrastructure, constituting multiple acts against a civilian population.

    What is ICC?

    • Establishment: Headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands, established under the 1998 Rome Statute.
    • Purpose: Investigates and tries individuals charged with genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and the crime of aggression.
    • Membership: 123 countries are party to the Rome Statute, including Britain, Japan, Afghanistan, and Germany. The USA, India, and China are not members.
    • Function: Prosecutes heinous offences when a country’s own legal system fails to act, unlike the ICJ which deals with inter-state disputes.
    • Jurisdiction: Limited to offences occurring after July 1, 2002, committed in a country that ratified the agreement or by a national of a ratifying country, or cases referred by the UN Security Council.

    Does ICC have the power to prosecute Russia?

    • Russia’s Stance: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that any decision of the ICC was “null and void” due to Russia not being an ICC member.
    • Effect on Leaders: Putin and other leaders risk arrest if they travel to a state party to the ICC, which is obliged to arrest them under international law. This deepens Russia’s isolation from the West.
    • Ukraine’s Position: Ukraine is not a State Party to the Rome Statute but has accepted ICC’s jurisdiction over alleged crimes occurring on its territory under Article 12(3) of the Statute. This requires Ukraine to cooperate with the ICC without delay or exception.

    Conclusion: The ICC’s charges against Russian leaders highlight significant legal and geopolitical challenges, deepening Russia’s isolation and emphasizing the need for global accountability in addressing war crimes and international conflicts.

    Mains question for practice: 

    Q In light of the recent arrest warrants issued against Russian leaders, discuss the effectiveness and limitations of the ICC in prosecuting individuals from non-member states.15M

  • From China tilt to a balancing with Beijing and Delhi  

    Why in the news?

    Amid mounting domestic and foreign policy challenges in Male, Mohamed Muizzu appears to be seeking reconciliation with India.

    Economic Difficulties in Maldives

    • Debt Burden: Maldives faces severe economic strain with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 110% and significant debt servicing obligations, including around $512 million annually in 2024 and 2025.
    • Foreign Reserves: Foreign reserves are critically low at $622 million, insufficient to cover debt maturities and sustain imports amid rising inflation.
    • Dependence on Imports: Heavy reliance on imports for essential goods exacerbates economic vulnerabilities, particularly amidst food and fuel inflation.
    • Revenue Generation: The government struggles with low domestic revenue generation capacity, further complicating fiscal management and debt sustainability.
    • Diversification Efforts: Efforts to diversify economic partnerships beyond traditional allies like India and China reflect a strategy to mitigate economic dependencies and attract diverse investments.

    What do the ties between India and China imply?

    • Geopolitical Competition: India and China’s engagements in countries like the Maldives reflect a broader competition for influence in the Indian Ocean region. Both countries strategically invest in infrastructure and security partnerships to enhance their regional foothold.
    • Economic Leverage: China’s substantial investments in the Maldives, including infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), provide economic leverage but also raise concerns about debt sustainability and strategic dependencies.
    • Strategic Alignment: While India emphasizes developmental assistance and strategic partnerships focused on security and governance, China’s engagements often prioritize infrastructure development and economic cooperation, reflecting different strategic priorities.
    • Regional Stability: Both India and China play pivotal roles in ensuring stability and security in the Indian Ocean region. Their respective approaches influence regional dynamics and perceptions among neighbouring countries regarding economic partnerships and security alignments.

    India’s stand

    • Balanced Approach: India continues to engage with the Maldives despite geopolitical shifts and maintains a stance of constructive diplomacy, offering economic support and emphasizing mutual respect.
    • Long-term Engagement: Inviting President Muizzu to Prime Minister Modi’s swearing-in signals India’s commitment to long-term bilateral relations and stability in the Indian Ocean region.
    • Strategic Importance: India views the Maldives as crucial for maritime security and regional stability, underpinning its continued diplomatic efforts and economic assistance.

    Conclusion: India can increase its economic assistance to the Maldives through grants, concessional loans, and capacity-building initiatives aimed at improving fiscal management and revenue generation capabilities. And focus on projects that enhance infrastructure resilience, promote sustainable development, and support economic diversification efforts beyond traditional sectors.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q Discuss the political developments in Maldives in the last two years. Should they be of any cause of concern to India? (UPSC IAS/2013)