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Subject: International Stories of Key Importance

  • What is the Washington Declaration?

    washington

    Central Idea: The context is the recent visit of the South Korean President to the US to commemorate the 70th anniversary of US-South Korea bilateral relations. During the visit, the two countries signed the “Washington Declaration” as a nuclear deterrence strategy against North Korea’s regional aggression.

    Washington Declaration: Key Terms

    • Nuke deployment by US: According to the declaration, an American nuclear ballistic submarine would be deployed in the Korean peninsula.
    • Intel mechanism: A nuclear consultative group would be formed to formulate principles of joint response tactics, and South Korea would receive Intel from the US regarding nuclear advancements.
    • Joint training: The US will strengthen South Korea’s nuclear deterrence capabilities through joint military training programs and an annual intergovernmental simulation.
    • Deterrence creation: The declaration reaffirmed the Non-Proliferation Treaty implying that South Korea would not venture into the creation of its own independent nuclear capabilities and would instead focus on deterrence measures through an alliance-based approach.

    Implications of the treaty

    • Big power politics: While the existence of the agreement is based on the security needs of South Korea, the policy reflects big power politics where the interests of the larger power (US) takes precedence.
    • US proprietorship over the nukes: The US is the only ‘sole authority’ to use the nuclear arsenal of the US in the event of a nuclear confrontation.
    • Maintaining stability: The assurance that the US and its nuclear weapons would protect its allies by being responsible for maintaining stability in the region aligns with the larger goal of non-proliferation.

    US Stance on South Korea’s Nuclear Capabilities

    • Fouled the SK nuclear program: South Korea’s nuclear development programme supported by former president Park Chung Hee was hindered due to US pressure.
    • Strategic arms reduction: The US withdrew one hundred nuclear weapons from South Korea in the 1990s as part of their “Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty” to make North Korea unarm itself.
    • Renewed interest after North Korea’s Rise: The Nuclear Posture Review 2022 reflects a shift in the US narrative where it is now concerned about the progressing nuclear capacities of North Korea.

    Regional and domestic responses

    • China: It said it undermines the nuclear non-proliferation regime and the strategic interests of other countries.
    • North Korea: Kim Jong-Un’s sister warned that the declaration would only result in making peace and security of North-East Asia and the world be exposed to more serious danger.

    Conclusion

    • Overall, the Declaration is an important step in the direction of creating a more overt and close coordination among the US allies in the Indo-Pacific.
    • It seeks to deal with not only North Korea but also moves of China and Russia.

    Back2Basics: Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

    The NPT is an international treaty signed in 1968 that aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

    Key facts about the NPT include:

    • Members: There are currently 191 parties to the treaty, including the five recognized nuclear-weapon states (the US, Russia, China, France, and the UK).
    • Three main pillars: Non-proliferation, Disarmament and Peaceful use of nuclear energy.
    • Non-nuclear-weapon states: They are parties to the treaty agree not to acquire nuclear weapons and to accept International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards on their nuclear activities.
    • Nuclear-weapon states: They are the parties to the treaty agree not to transfer nuclear weapons or technology to non-nuclear-weapon states.
    • 5 year review: The treaty is reviewed every five years at a conference of parties, with the most recent review conference taking place in 2015.
    • Criticisms: NPT has been criticized for not doing enough to promote disarmament, and for perpetuating a system of haves and have-nots in which certain states have nuclear weapons while others do not. However, proponents argue that the treaty has helped to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and to promote peaceful use of nuclear energy.

     

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  • EU’s Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act

    eu ai

    Central idea: The European Parliament has recently reached a preliminary deal on a new draft of the European Union’s Artificial Intelligence Act, after two years of drafting and negotiations.

    Regulating AI

    • The need for regulation of AI technologies has been highlighted worldwide.
    • EU lawmakers have urged world leaders to hold a summit to brainstorm ways to control the development of advanced AI systems.

    EU’s Artificial Intelligence Act

    • The aim of the AI Act is to bring transparency, trust, and accountability to AI technologies and to mitigate risks to the safety, health, fundamental rights, and democratic values of the EU.
    • The legislation seeks to address ethical questions and implementation challenges in various sectors, from healthcare and education to finance and energy.
    • It seeks to strike a balance between promoting the uptake of AI while mitigating or preventing harms associated with certain uses of the technology.
    • It aims to strengthen Europe’s position as a global hub of excellence in AI from the lab to the market and ensure that AI in Europe respects the 27-country bloc’s values and rules.
    • The Act delegates the process of standardization or creation of precise technical requirements for AI technologies to the EU’s expert standard-setting bodies in specific sectors.

    Details of the Act

    • Defining AI: AI is broadly defined as “software that is developed with one or more of the techniques that can, for a given set of human-defined objectives, generate outputs such as content, predictions, recommendations, or decisions influencing the environments they interact with.”
    • Four risk-category: The Act outlines four risk categories:
    1. Unacceptable: The use of technologies in the unacceptable risk category is prohibited with little exception, including real-time facial and biometric identification systems in public spaces, China-like systems of social scoring, subliminal techniques to distort behavior, and technologies that exploit vulnerabilities of certain populations.
    2. High: The focus is on AI in the high-risk category, prescribing pre-and post-market requirements for developers and users of such systems and establishing an EU-wide database of high-risk AI systems. The requirements for conformity assessments for high-risk AI systems must be met before they can make it to the market.
    3. Limited and minimal: AI systems in the limited and minimal risk category can be used with a few requirements like transparency obligations.

    Recent proposal on General Purpose AI

    • Recent updates to EU rules to regulate generative AI, including language model-based chatbots like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, are discussed.
    • Lawmakers are debating whether all forms of general-purpose AI will be designated high-risk.
    • Companies deploying generative AI tools are required to disclose any copyrighted material used to develop their systems.

    Reaction from the AI Industry

    • Some industry players have welcomed the legislation, while others have expressed concerns about the potential impact on innovation and competitiveness.
    • Companies are worried about transparency requirements, fearing that they may have to divulge trade secrets.
    • Lawmakers and consumer groups have criticized the legislation for not fully addressing the risks associated with AI systems.

    Global governance of AI

    • The US currently lacks comprehensive AI regulation and has taken a hands-off approach.
    • The Biden administration released a Blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights (AIBoR) that outlines the harms of AI and five principles for mitigating them.
    • China has come out with some of the world’s first nationally binding regulations targeting specific types of algorithms and AI.
    • China enacted a law to regulate recommendation algorithms, with a focus on how they disseminate information.
    • While India is still stuck with the Personal Data Protection Bill.

     

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  • International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) Program

    Central idea

    • The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) of the US has retained the “Category 1” status for India’s aviation safety oversight following a review.
    • The FAA uses the International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) program to determine whether a country’s oversight of its airlines that operate or wish to operate to the US or enter into codeshare partnerships.

    What is the IASA Program?

    • The International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) program is conducted by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).
    • The program evaluates the safety oversight of civil aviation authorities in countries worldwide.
    • It determines whether a country’s oversight of its airlines that operate or wish to operate to the U.S. or enter into codeshare partnerships with U.S. carriers comply with safety standards established by the UN International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
    • The IASA program focuses on three broad areas, including personnel licensing, operation of aircraft, and airworthiness of aircraft.
    • Countries are rated as Category 1 if they comply with international safety standards, or Category 2 if they do not comply with international safety standards.
    • The IASA program is conducted over a one-year period, which includes physical audits and a further review.

    India’s commitment to aviation safety

    • The assessment by the ICAO as well as the FAA is a testimony to India’s commitment of having an effective safety oversight for its civil aviation system.
    • In November 2021, the ICAO conducted an audit, and India scored an Effective Implementation (EI) of 85.65%, an improvement from the previous EI of 69.95%.

     

     

  • Finland to join NATO Military Alliance

    NATO Secretary-General said that Finland will become the 31st member of the military alliance.

    What is the North Atlantic Treaty?  

    • North Atlantic Treaty, often referred to as the Washington Treaty, states the parties to the treaty seek to promote stability and well-being in the North Atlantic area.
    • The signatories affirm their faith in the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and express their desire to live in peace with all people and governments, the treaty states.
    Establishment April 4, 1949
    Headquarters Brussels, Belgium
    Membership 30 member countries, including the United States, Canada, and most of Europe
    Objective Collective defense against external aggression and the preservation of peace and security
    Article 5 Collective defense clause which states that an attack on one member is an attack on all members
    Military Commanders Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) and Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT)
    Main Decision-Making Body North Atlantic Council (NAC)
    Funding Contributions from member countries, based on a cost-sharing formula
    Partnerships NATO has partnerships with several countries and international organizations, including Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the United Nations
    Criticisms Criticized for its role in the Cold War and for its intervention in conflicts outside of Europe, such as the war in Afghanistan

    What is the process for securing NATO membership?  

    Process for Securing NATO Membership Description
    Establishment of consensus Member countries establish consensus about a country’s potential membership.
    Invitation to join Membership Action Plan (MAP) Applicant countries may be invited to join MAP. This provides preparatory advice, assistance, and practical support tailored to their specific needs. It concludes with the formal timetable for the completion of prerequisite reforms.
    Annual feedback report NATO draws an annual report providing feedback to the aspirant country about its progress in their annual national programmes, and identifying areas for further action.
    Confirmation of intent NATO experts and representatives of the invited countries meet in Brussels to obtain formal confirmation of the invitee’s willingness and ability to meet the political, legal, and military obligations and commitments of NATO membership.
    Issue of letter of intent The applicant country issues a formal letter of intent to NATO, confirming the obligations and commitments of the organization.
    Necessary amendments and ratification The necessary amendments are made to make the invitee a party to the Washington Treaty, followed by ratification of the applicant country’s constitutional protocols for facilitating membership.
    Acceding to the Treaty Secretary-General calls the potential new members to accede to the North Atlantic Treaty. This is after all NATO members notify their acceptance to the government of the United States, the depository of the Washington Treaty, about the applicant.
    Membership confirmed Following the invitee depositing their instruments of accession with the US State Department, the applicant becomes a member of NATO.

     

    The MAP obligations

    Chapter Issues identified
    Political and Economic Settle disputes peacefully, promote human rights and democracy, refrain from force, contribute to collective defence, establish civilian control of armed forces
    Defence Improve military capabilities, participate in Partnership for Peace Programme, contribute to collective defence planning, ensure interoperability
    Resources Allocate sufficient budget resources, contribute to NATO’s common-funded activities
    Security Ensure security of sensitive information in adherence to NATO security policy
    Legal Scrutinize domestic law for compatibility with NATO rules and regulations

     

    Current applicants and members  

    Year New Members
    Formation: 1949 Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, UK, US
    1952 Greece, Turkey
    1955 West Germany
    1982 Spain
    1999 Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland
    2004 Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia
    2009 Croatia, Albania
    2020 North Macedonia

     

    Why does Russia fume over NATO?

    • NATO’s expansion: Russia views NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe as a threat to its security and influence in the region. The alliance’s decision to accept former Soviet republics and Warsaw Pact members as members is seen by Russia as a direct challenge to its strategic interests.
    • Military exercises: Russia has also expressed concern over NATO military exercises in the region, which it sees as a provocation and a show of force. NATO’s decision to station troops and equipment in Eastern Europe has also been criticized by Russia.
    • Missile defense system: Russia has been particularly critical of NATO’s missile defense system, which it sees as a threat to its own nuclear deterrence capabilities. Russia argues that the system is designed to neutralize its strategic weapons and that it undermines global strategic stability.
    • Ukraine and Georgia: Russia has accused NATO of interfering in the affairs of Ukraine and Georgia, two former Soviet republics that are seeking closer ties with the West. Russia sees NATO’s support for these countries as an attempt to encircle and contain Russia.

     

     

  • Saudi Arabia set to become SCO member

    saudi-sco

    Saudi Arabia’s cabinet decided to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as Riyadh builds a long-term partnership with China despite US security concerns.

    What is SCO?

    • The SCO is primarily a geopolitical and security organisation with limited infrastructures to pursue economic integration.
    • The group accounts for about one-third of the world’s land and exports trillions of dollars annually.
    • It is governed by consensus, which limits the scope of major cooperation between its member states.
    • It also functions more as a venue for discussion and engagement where high-level dignitaries from across the region can gather to confer, rather than an alliance like the EU, whose members have a common currency, or NATO.

    Its establishment

    • The SCO was founded in June 2001 by the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Russia and China.
    • The genesis of the grouping can be traced back to the post-soviet era in 1996 when these countries, termed ‘Shanghai Five’, came together
    • Earlier, it focused on regional security to work on regional security, reduction of border troops, and terrorism.
    • Its particular focus has been on “conflict resolution”, which provided early successes between China and Russia, and then within the Central Asian Republics.

    Structure of SCO

    • The organisation has two permanent bodies —
    1. SCO Secretariat based in Beijing and
    2. Executive Committee of the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) based in Tashkent.
    • The SCO Secretary-General and the Director of the Executive Committee of the SCO RATS are appointed by the Council of Heads of State for a term of three years.
    • But the venue of the SCO council meetings shifts between the eight members (including India and Pakistan).

    Members of SCO

    • Apart from the above-mentioned countries— Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Russia and China.
    • India and Pakistan are also members of this organisation, both included in 2017.
    • The SCO also has four observer states — Afghanistan, Belarus , Iran and Mongolia — which may be inducted at a later date.
    • And “Dialogue Partners” —Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Turkey Egypt, Qatar as well as Saudi Arabia.

    Main goals

    The main goals of the SCO, as adopted in its Charter in St. Petersburg in 2002, is:

    1. Strengthening mutual trust and neighbourliness among the member states;
    2. Promoting their effective cooperation in politics, trade, economy, research and technology and culture, as well as in education, energy, transport, tourism, environmental protection, and other areas;
    3. Making joint efforts to maintain and ensure peace, security and stability in the region; and
    4. Moving towards the establishment of a democratic, fair and rational new international political and economic order.”

    Why did Saudi Arabia join SCO?

    • Saudi Arabia could benefit in several ways, such as increased trade and economic cooperation with member states, particularly with China and Russia.
    • It could also gain a stronger voice in regional security issues and access to the SCO’s anti-terrorism framework.
    • Additionally, Saudi Arabia could help the organization expand its influence in the Middle East and increase its strategic weight in global affairs.
    • This is definitely a result of straining its ties with Washington.

     

  • Understanding IMF Bailouts and their drawbacks

    imf

    Central idea: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week confirmed a $3 billion bailout plan for Sri Lanka’s struggling economy. However, Pakistan failed to get a penny. Countries seek help from the IMF usually when their economies face a major macroeconomic risk, mostly in the form of a currency crisis.

    International Monetary Fund (IMF)

    • IMF is an international organization that provides loans, technical assistance, and policy advice to its member countries.
    • It was established in 1944 with the goal of promoting international monetary cooperation and exchange rate stability, facilitating balanced economic growth, and reducing poverty around the world.
    • It has 190 member countries, and its headquarters is located in Washington, D.C.
    • Its main function is to provide financial assistance to countries facing economic difficulties, such as the balance of payments problems, currency crises, and high levels of debt.
    • It also provides technical assistance and policy advice to help countries improve their economic policies and institutions, and to promote economic stability and growth.

    Governing of IMF

    • The IMF is governed by its Board of Governors, which consists of one governor and one alternate governor from each member country.
    • The day-to-day operations of the IMF are managed by its Executive Board, which is responsible for making decisions on financial assistance and policy advice.

     

    What is an IMF Bailout?

    • An IMF bailout, also known as an IMF program, is a loan package provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to financially troubled countries.
    • These loan packages come with specific terms and conditions that the borrowing country must meet to access the funds.
    • They typically have a set of conditions that a country must meet to qualify for the loan package.
    • These conditions, also known as “conditionalities,” typically include measures that promote fiscal discipline, monetary stability, and structural reforms to improve the country’s economic competitiveness.

    IMF programs are often seen as a last resort for countries facing financial crises, and they are only granted if a country cannot access capital markets on its own. IMF programs can be classified into three main types:

    1. Stand-by Arrangements: They are short-term lending programs designed to provide financial assistance to countries experiencing short-term balance of payments problems. These programs typically last for one to two years and require countries to implement specific macroeconomic policies to stabilize their economies.
    2. Extended Fund Facility: Such programs are medium-term lending programs designed to help countries with balance of payments difficulties resulting from structural weaknesses. These programs are typically longer-term and come with more extensive policy conditionality, which requires more significant structural reforms to the country’s economy.
    3. Rapid Financing Instrument: It is a loan program designed to provide quick financing to countries facing an urgent balance of payments need. The program is designed to be more flexible than other IMF programs, with fewer conditions and a shorter application process.

    Why do countries seek IMF bailouts?

    • Countries need IMF bailout when their economies face major macroeconomic risks, such as a currency crisis, due to gross mismanagement of the nation’s currency by the central bank under the covert influence of the ruling government.
    • Such currency crises cause a rapid rise in the overall money supply, which causes prices to rise across the economy and the exchange value of the currency to drop.
    • Bad luck such as a decrease in foreign tourists can also contribute to a crisis in a country like Sri Lanka.

    Benefits provided by IMF bailout:

    IMF programs provide several benefits to countries in financial distress. For instance:

    • Access to funding: An IMF bailout provides immediate funding to a country experiencing a financial crisis, allowing it to meet its immediate financial obligations.
    • Credibility push: A bailout can provide credibility to a country’s economic policies, signalling to international investors that the country is taking the necessary steps to restore its economy.
    • Assistance with structural reforms: IMF programs require countries to implement structural reforms that can help address the underlying problems that led to the financial crisis, improving the country’s long-term economic prospects.

    Limitations of an IMF bailout

    • Harsh austerity measures: IMF programs often require countries to implement strict economic policies, which can be unpopular and difficult to implement.
    • Limited resources: The IMF has limited resources, which can limit the amount of assistance it can provide to countries in need.
    • Stigmatization: Bailout can stigmatize a country in the eyes of international investors, signaling that the country is unable to manage its own economy without outside assistance.

    Try this PYQ from CSP 2022

    “Rapid Financing Instrument” and “Rapid Credit Facility” are related to the provisions of lending by which one of the following?

    (a) Asian Development Bank

    (b) International Monetary Fund

    (c) United National Environment Programme Finance Initiative

    (d) Word Bank

     

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”0bg8oemwws” question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here.[/wpdiscuz-feedback]

     

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  • Chinese firm to build Solomon Islands Port Project

    solomon

    A Chinese state-backed company has won a contract to develop Honiara, a key port in the Solomon Islands. This is a major victory for China, which is seeking to gain a strategic foothold in the South Pacific.

    Why discuss this?

    • The Solomon Islands have become a focal point in the diplomatic tussle between China and the US, following the signing of a secret security pact between the Solomons and Beijing in 2022.
    • This has raised concerns that China may be establishing a permanent naval base in the country.

    About Solomon Islands

    • The Solomon Islands is a sovereign country consisting of six major islands and over 900 smaller islands in Oceania, to the east of Papua New Guinea and northwest of Vanuatu.
    • Its capital, Honiara, is located on the largest island, Guadalcanal.
    • It is part of the ethnically Melanesian group of islands in the Pacific and lies between Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu.
    • The country takes its name from the Solomon Islands archipelago, which is a collection of Melanesian islands that also includes the North Solomon Islands (a part of Papua New Guinea).
    • It excludes outlying islands, such as the Santa Cruz Islands and Rennell and Bellona.

    Quick recap of its past

    • The islands, which were initially controlled by the British Empire during the colonial era, went through the hands of Germany and Japan.
    • It then went back to the UK after the Americans took over the islands from the Japanese during World War II.
    • The islands became independent in 1978 to become a constitutional monarchy under the British Crown, with a parliamentary system of government.
    • Nevertheless, its inability to manage domestic ethnic conflicts led to close security relations with Australia, which is the traditional first responder to any crisis in the South Pacific.

    How did China enter the picture?

    • Earlier this year, the Solomon Islands established a security agreement with China, saying it needed Beijing’s assistance with its domestic security situation.
    • But the announcement had rattled the west, esp. the US, Australia and others in the Indo-Pacific region.
    • The concerns were that the agreement could potentially lead to a Chinese military base on the island nation and a gain in power-projection capabilities.
    • At that time, following intense scrutiny, the Solomon Islands had denied that the agreement would allow China to establish a naval base.

    What is the Solomon Islands’ stance?

    • The government has asked all partner countries with plans to conduct naval visits or patrols to put them on hold until a revised national mechanism is in place.
    • The revised national mechanism applied to all foreign vessels seeking access to the country’s ports.
    • The nation wanted to build up its own naval capacity.
    • It has some unfortunate experiences of foreign naval vessels entering its waters without any diplomatic clearance.

    What is behind China’s growing influence in the region?

    • There is no dispute that China has been rapidly increasing its presence and influence in the region for over three decades, particularly in the South Pacific.
    • Certainly Beijing views the Pacific Island region as an important component of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
    • Specifically, it sees the region as a critical air freight hub in its so-called Air Silk Road, which connects Asia with Central and South America.

    Concerns of the West

    • The port project could open the door to a Chinese naval base, which would significantly extend China’s military reach in the South Pacific.”
    • It is likely that this security agreement between China and the Solomon Islands has been driven by, what the CFR calls, Beijing’s “sense of vulnerability” in the region.

    What is the rationale for the Solomon Islands’ increasing proximity to China?

    • The Solomon Islands had cultivated strong ties with Taiwan, which ended with the emergence of the current government in Honiara.
    • In 2019, the regime change switched Taiwan for China.
    • This was supposedly after Beijing offered half a billion US dollars in financial aid, roughly five times what Taiwan spent on the islands in the past two decades.
    • It has been alleged by the pro-Taiwan Opposition that the incumbent government has been bribed by China.

    Why is China interested in the Solomon Islands?

    • Isolating Taiwan: The Solomon Islands was one among the six Pacific island states which had official bilateral relations with Taiwan.
    • Supporter in UN: The small Pacific island states act as potential vote banks for mobilising support for the great powers in international fora like the United Nations.
    • Larger EEZ: These states have disproportionately large maritime Exclusive Economic Zones when compared to their small sizes.
    • Natural resources: Solomon Islands, in particular, have significant reserves of timber and mineral resources, along with fisheries.
    • Countering US: But more importantly, they are strategically located for China to insert itself between America’s military bases in the Pacific islands and Australia.

    What does this mean for the established geopolitical configuration in the region?

    • Diminishing western influence: The Pacific islands, in the post-World War II scenario, were exclusively under the spheres of influence of the Western powers, in particular, the US, UK, France and Australia and New Zealand.
    • Inserting into western hegemony: All of them have territorial possessions in the region, with the three nuclear powers among them having used the region as a nuclear weapons testing ground.
    • Shifting of dependencies: The smaller island nations of the region are heavily dependent on them, especially Australia as it is a resident power.
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  • International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant against Vladimir Putin

    putin

    The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for war crimes for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova, Russia’s commissioner for children’s rights.

    Charges against Putin

    • The ICC issued the warrants because it believes that Putin bear individual criminal responsibility for the war crime of –
    1. Unlawful deportation of population and
    2. Unlawful transfer of population from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation

    The ICC and its Background

    • The ICC is a standing body created two decades ago to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity under a 1998 treaty known as the Rome Statute.
    • The court is based in The Hague, a Dutch city that has long been a center for international law and justice.
    • Many democracies joined the ICC, including close American allies such as Britain.
    • However, the United States has kept its distance due to fears that the court may one day seek to prosecute American officials.
    • Russia is also not a member.

    Implications of the Warrants   

    • Human rights groups hailed the warrant as an important step toward ending impunity for Russian war crimes in Ukraine.
    • The likelihood of a trial while Putin remains in power appears slim since the court cannot try defendants in absentia, and Russia has said it will not surrender its own officials.
    • Putin’s isolation in the West deepens, and his movements overseas could be limited.
    • If he travels to a state that is a party to the ICC, that country must arrest him according to its obligations under international law.

    Possibility of Putin Facing Trial

    • The ICC has no power to arrest sitting heads of state or bring them to trial, and instead must rely on other leaders and governments to act as its sheriffs around the world.
    • A suspect who manages to evade capture may never have a hearing to confirm the charges.
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  • Australia to buy US nuclear submarines under AUKUS

    aukus

    Australia will buy up to 5 US nuclear-powered submarines and build a new model with US and British technology under the AUKUS.

    AUKUS: A Backgrounder

    • This new partnership is known as AUKUS and the major highlight of this arrangement is the sharing of US nuclear submarine technology with Australia.
    • The first major initiative of AUKUS would be to deliver a nuclear-powered submarine fleet for Australia thereby giving it a nuclear heft in the Pacific where China has been particularly aggressive.
    • Apart from this AUKUS will also involve the sharing of cyber capabilities and other undersea technologies.
    • This alliance is considered to be most significant security arrangement between these three nations.

    Ripples created by AUKUS

    (A) US shift of focus

    • AUKUS is both an acknowledgment of and a concession to the loss of US strategic primacy.
    • It gives justification for the hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan — to be able to better focus on the strategic rivalry and trade competition with China.

    (B) Resentment in the EU and France

    • The deal has complicated the relations between France and Australia, and also France and the US. France is upset as it has been kept out of the loop.
    • France has even ordered the recall of its ambassadors to Washington and Canberra.

    (C) Chinese offensive reception

    • China, expectedly, has strongly criticised AUKUS and the submarine deal as promoting instability and stoking an arms race.

    (D) Confusion among the SE nations

    • The new great power contestation might actually generate much room for the Southeast Asian states to manoeuvre, as they are wooed simultaneously by China, AUKUS, and the Quad.
    • They realise that AUKUS is a challenge to the hallowed notion of “ASEAN centrality”, a totemic rhetorical device which seeks to have others acknowledge its relevance.

    Why such an alliance?

    (A) Deteriorating China-AU relations

    • Tensions have been high between Australia and an increasingly assertive China, its largest trade partner.
    • Australia banned Chinese telecom giant Huawei in 2108 and its PM called for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19 last year.
    • China retaliated by imposing tariffs on or capping Australian exports.

    (B) US act of counterbalancing

    • China has nuclear-powered submarines, as well as submarines that can launch nuclear missiles.
    • The three signatories to the AUKUS deal have made it clear though, that their aim is not to arm the new subs with nuclear weapons.

    (C) Bringing Australia at the centrestage of Indo-Pacific

    • In the context of the AUKUS agreement, nuclear-powered submarines will give the Royal Australian Navy the capability to go into the South China Sea.
    • This is primarily because a nuclear-powered submarine gives a navy the capability to reach far out into the ocean and launch attacks.
    • A nuclear-powered submarine offers long distances dives, at a higher speed, without being detected gives a nation the ability to protect its interests far from its shores.

    Exactly, How?

    • To go from a diesel-electric fleet to a nuclear fleet is thus a change of strategy, not just of propulsion.
    • It provides a way to project power from the shipping lanes which feed the all-important Malacca Strait to the waters off Taiwan.
    • Add on the capacity to launch much longer-range missiles—a submarine could deliver missiles to China’s mainland while sitting to the east of the Philippines—and the country has a greatly expanded offensive capacity.

    AU: Another US Base

    • If Australia’s strategic stance is changed by the deal, so is America’s.
    • Since the Second World War the US has projected power across the region called as an archipelago of empire.
    • There are the island bases from Hawaii in the east to Guam, Okinawa in Japan and, in the Indian Ocean, Diego Garcia, leased from Britain without the consent of its natives.
    • In Australia, America has now, in effect, a beefed-up continent-sized base for its own operations as well as a reinvigorated ally.

    Outcomes of AUKUS

    (A) Offensive front against China

    • There is no gainsaying the fact that rapid accretion in China’s economic and military capacities, but more particularly its belligerence, has led to a tectonic shift in regional security paradigms.
    • Several countries have been obliged to review their defence preparedness in response to China’s rising military power and its adverse impact on regional stability.

    (B) India as a bridge in Anglosphere

    • The transatlantic fissure has also pointed to something inconceivable—that India could emerge as a potential bridge between different parts of the West.
    • Our PM was on the phone with French President Emmanuel Macron reaffirming India’s strong commitment to the Indo-Pacific partnership with France.
    • India’s solidarity with France at a difficult moment is rooted in New Delhi’s conviction that preserving the West’s unity is critical in shaping the strategic future of the Indo-Pacific.

    (C) Exposed Chinese double standards

    • China has the world’s fastest-growing fleet of sub-surface combatants.
    • This includes the Type 093 Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) and the Type 094 nuclear-powered Jin-class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN).
    • Its nuclear submarines are on the prowl in the Indo-Pacific.
    • Yet, China denies Australia and others the sovereign right to decide on their defence requirements.

    Implications on QUAD

    • Not superseding: This alliance does not and will not supersede or outrank existing arrangements in the Indo-Pacific region such as the Quad, which the US and Australia form with India and Japan, and ASEAN.
    • Complimentary to QUAD: AUKUS will complement these groups and others.

    Opportunities for India

    While the Quad and Washington’s Indo-Pacific pivot generate much interest and anxiety, it is easy to forget that the two ideas are, in essence, about India.

    • India’s role has enhanced: Balancing China is the challenge confronting the United States, and Washington has recognized that India is an indispensable part of the answer.
    • Just another alliance: New Delhi has no reason to complain if Australia, Britain, and the United States raise the military capabilities of their coalition. The submarine deal is an undiluted example of strategic defence collaboration.
    • Intimidating China: The introduction of nuclear-powered submarine through AUKUS has a complicating impact on the Chinese maritime calculus. Anything that maintains a balance of power in the region is desirable.
    • Focusing inside on land border: AUKUS also leaves India with a less of a headache in securing its maritime flank from Chinese aggression and New Delhi may focus more fully on the threat emanating from the land border with China.

     

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  • Explained: Understanding the Saudi-Iran Reconciliation

    iran

    Central idea: Saudi Arabia and Iran, two of West Asia’s major powers that have been at odds with each other for decades, agreed to restore diplomatic relations last week in an agreement brokered by China.

    Saudi-Iran Ties: A timeline

    • Pre-1979: Saudi Arabia and Iran compete for regional dominance.
    • 1979: Iranian Revolution brings down the monarchy and turns Iran into a Shia theocratic republic.
    • 1980-1988: Iran-Iraq war sees Saudi Arabia support Iraq.
    • 1990-1991: Saudi Arabia supports Iraq against Iran in the Gulf War.
    • 1996: Iranian-backed Hezbollah bombs Saudi military housing complex in Khobar, killing 19 US soldiers.
    • 2011-2015: Saudi Arabia and Iran support opposing sides in the Syrian civil war.
    • 2015: Saudi Arabia launches military intervention in Yemen against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.
    • January 2016: Saudi Arabia executes prominent Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, leading to protests in Iran and the burning of the Saudi embassy in Tehran.
    • 2016: Saudi and several Arab allies cut diplomatic ties with Iran.
    • 2019: Saudi oil facilities are attacked, leading to increased tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
    • 2021: Both begin direct talks, brokered by China.
    • March 2023: Both nations announce an agreement to restore diplomatic ties, brokered by China.

    Reasons for hostile relations

    The hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran has its roots in a complex mix of historical, geopolitical, religious, and ideological factors.

    • Religious contradictions: Historically, the rivalry between the two countries dates back to the seventh century when the Prophet Muhammad died without a clear successor, leading to a dispute over the leadership of the Muslim community. This dispute ultimately resulted in the split between Sunni Islam (which dominates in Saudi Arabia) and Shia Islam (which dominates in Iran).
    • Geopolitical tensions: The two countries are located in a strategically important region, with both seeking to exert influence and maintain dominance in the Middle East. Iran’s Islamic revolution in 1979 posed a challenge to Saudi Arabia’s status as the leading Islamic power in the region, and the two countries have been competing for regional influence ever since.
    • Sectarian tensions: Saudi Arabia and Iran have long had competing visions for the role of Islam in society. Saudi Arabia promotes a strict interpretation of Sunni Islam known as Wahhabism, while Iran supports Shia Islam and the principle of the “Guardianship of the Jurist,” which asserts that a senior Shia cleric should have political power and authority over all Muslims.
    • Ties with west: The two countries have fundamentally different views on a range of issues, including democracy, human rights, and regional security. Saudi Arabia is a conservative monarchy with close ties to the United States, while Iran is an Islamic republic that has been at odds with the West since the 1979 revolution.

    All these factors have contributed to the ongoing hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the tensions between the two countries continue to have a destabilizing effect on the region.Top of Form

    What are the terms of the agreement?

    • The details of the agreement are yet to be unveiled.
    • Iran has reportedly agreed to prevent further attacks against Saudi Arabia from Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen while Saudi Arabia has agreed to rein in Iran International, a Farsi news channel critical of the Iranian regime.
    • Foreign Ministers of both countries will meet soon to thrash out the terms of the reconciliation before reopening embassies in each other’s capitals in two months.
    • China is planning to host a cross-Gulf conference of Iran and the six Gulf monarchies to further strengthen peace in the region.

    Why did Saudi Arabia reach out to Iran (defying the US)?

    Ans. Iran’s Rise, and Changing Alliances

    • Internal Security: When Saudi oil facilities were attacked in 2019, the US looked away, prompting the Saudis to look for alternative solutions for the Iran problem, such as reaching out to the Iranians.
    • Differences over Palestine: The US was trying to broker a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel to bring the two pillars of its West Asia policy together against Iran.
    • US negligence of West Asia: The US deprioritized West Asia due to bigger foreign policy challenges, such as the Russian war in Ukraine and China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific.
    • Obsolesce of ties with US: Relations between Saudi Arabia and the US have been rocky in recent years, as the US is not as dependent on Gulf Arabs as it used to be during the Cold War.
    • Shared opinions over Israel: Saudi Arabia has been hesitant to reconcile with Israel, and its relations with the US have been rocky in recent years.

    What led Iran to accept the deal?

    • Isolation and Domestic pressure: Tehran is aware that getting relief from Western sanctions is not a near-term possibility. Despite crackdown, protests in Iran refuse to die down.
    • Crumbling economy: Iran’s economy is deteriorating and its currency, the rial, is struggling. A deal with Saudi Arabia, under China’s mediation, could open economic lifelines for Iran
    • China factor: Iran wanted Chinese investments and support for the rial. China allowed Iran to withdraw parts of the $20 billion funds frozen with Chinese banks due to US sanctions.
    • Fouling American efforts: Iran knows that such a deal could complicate American efforts to rally Arab countries and Israel against it. A reconciliation with Saudi is beneficial for Iran, at least in a tactical sense.

    Why is China brokering the deal?

    • Securing its oil supplies: China has an interest in promoting stability in the Middle East region, which is a major source of oil and natural gas for China.
    • Side-lining the US: By brokering a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, China can position itself as a mediator and gain goodwill from both sides.
    • Create alternative axis: China has longstanding relationships with both countries. The US since Trumps departure is distancing itself from the US, whereas China is also getting closer to Russia amid the war.
    • Image building as a leader: While the US is busy rallying the Western world to arm Ukraine to push back Russia and weaken Moscow through sanctions, China is quietly brokering peace in the Global South.

    US reception of this deal

    • Welcomed the move: The public narrative is that the peace deal would help stabilize the region and benefit the global energy market.

    Key implications for the US

    • Hegemony decline: The US would not like to lose its influence in West Asia even when it is deprioritizing the region.
    • Saudi drifts away: US sees an ally (Saudi Arabia) drifting further away, a rival it wanted to contain (Iran) making new friends, and China spreading and deepening its influence in a region the US has dominated historically.
    • Iran Sanctions going loose: The Iran nuclear deal is practically dead and the US wants Saudi Arabia to normalize ties with Israel and put up a joint front against Iran.

    What inferences can be drawn from all these?

    • Strategic realignments in West Asia: It can be inferred that West Asia is currently undergoing significant strategic realignments, with the UAE normalizing relations with Israel and other Arab countries deepening their partnerships.
    • Shifted US focus on Ukraine and Indo-Pacific: The US, which traditionally held significant power in the region, has deprioritized West Asia due to bigger foreign policy challenges such as Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific.
    • China occupying power vacuum: This deprioritization has created a power vacuum that has allowed Iran to rise as a challenge, prompting the US to try to bring Israel and the Arab world together against Iran.

     

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