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Type: Explained

These Newscards correspond to the explained section of various newspapers. They become immensely important for both prelims and mains and special attention needs to be paid to them

  • New science awards, old political project 

    Why in the News?

    In 2023, the government replaced numerous opaque science awards with the Rashtriya Vigyan Puraskar (RVP), a streamlined set with clear criteria. It aimed to address concerns about transparency by involving committees led by respected scientists.

    Introduction of Rashtriya Vigyan Puraskar (RVP):

    • In 2023, the government replaced multiple science-related awards with the RVP, a consolidated and streamlined set of awards.
    • RVP introduced specific categories and clear eligibility criteria to enhance transparency and reduce opacity in the selection process.
    • Committees led by reputed scientists were tasked with finalizing the awardees, a measure intended to address concerns about bureaucratic interference.

    Concerns Over Selection Process:

    • Chance of political interference: The modification of rules overnight and the omission of some scientists from the final list, despite being shortlisted by the RVP committee, created suspicion of political interference.
    • Omission of the critic of Govt policy: Notably, some of the omitted scientists had previously criticized government policies, leading to concerns that the awards process might be used to marginalize dissenting voices within the scientific community.

    Shift in Authority:

    • Original Process: Initially, the RVP committee head had the authority to finalize the awardees.
    • Recent Change: A last-minute rule modification allowed the committee head to only “recommend” the final list to the Science Ministry, increasing the possibility of government intervention in the selection process.
    • Recognition Framework: The RVP awards are categorized into four main types: Vigyan Ratna for lifetime achievements, Vigyan Shri for distinguished contributions, Vigyan Yuva for young scientists, and Vigyan Team for collaborative efforts.

    Impact on the Scientific Community

    • Concerns Over Transparency: The modification of selection criteria just before the announcement of awardees has led to suspicions that political motives might influence who receives recognition.
      • Notably, some scientists who were initially included in the recommended list were omitted from the final public announcement, prompting questions about whether political pressures were involved.
    • Exclusion of Dissenting Voices: Many excluded scientists had previously expressed dissent against government policies. This trend suggests a troubling pattern where recognition is contingent upon alignment with governmental perspectives, potentially stifling academic freedom and critical discourse within the scientific community.

    Way forward: 

    • Strengthen Transparency and Autonomy: Establish an independent, non-governmental oversight body to ensure that the selection process remains transparent and free from political interference.
    • Safeguard Academic Freedom: Implement safeguards to prevent exclusion based on political or ideological views, ensuring that recognition is purely merit-based.

  • Was animal fat present in Tirupati laddus?

    Why in the News?

    The ghee samples used by ‘Tirumala Tirupati Devasthanams’ for ritual offerings and ‘Laddu Prasadam’ were found to contain foreign fats, including fish oil, beef tallow, and lard, as per the NDDB’s analysis report.

    What did the ALF of the National Dairy Development Board find in the Tirupati laddus?

    • The Centre for Analysis and Learning in Livestock and Food (CALF) of the National Dairy Development Board found that ghee samples supplied to the Tirumala Tirupati Devasthanams (TTD) for preparing laddus were adulterated with various fats.
    • Adulterants detected included:
      • Plant-based fats: soybean, sunflower oil, rapeseed oil, linseed, wheat germ, maize germ, cotton seed, coconut, and palm kernel fat.
      • Animal-based fats: fish oil, beef tallow, and lard (pig fat).

    Existing Laws:

    • The Indian Penal Code (1860) penalizes food adulteration under Section 272, but penalties are often minimal, leading to insufficient deterrence.
    • The Food Safety and Standards Act, of 2006 aims to consolidate food safety regulations, but implementation remains weak due to inadequate resources and oversight.

    Implementation Gaps:

    • Despite robust standards set by the FSSAI, the actual enforcement is lacking. For instance, many tests that could detect sophisticated forms of adulteration are only sometimes conducted due to a lack of testing facilities and trained personnel.
    • A study by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) highlighted that major brands of honey were found to be adulterated with undetectable syrups, raising concerns about the effectiveness of current testing protocols.

    Why maintaining a good baseline data (specific to Indian conditions) is necessary?

    • Biological Variation in Indian Cows: Baseline data specific to Indian cows is needed for accurate results. Indian cows may have different genetic and biochemical profiles compared to European cows, meaning the existing international standards for detecting adulteration (like the ‘s-values’) may not accurately reflect the composition of Indian cow ghee.
    • Adulterants Unique to Local Conditions: The types of adulterants commonly used in India, such as certain vegetable oils or animal fats, may differ from those in other regions. Establishing baseline data for Indian adulterants would improve the precision of detecting the specific types of foreign fats used in India.
    • Accurate Interpretation of Results: Without specific data on the composition of Indian cow ghee, it becomes difficult to interpret the results from methods like gas chromatography. Customized baseline data ensures that the detection methods yield accurate and meaningful conclusions in the Indian context.

    Way forward: 

    • Strengthen Enforcement Mechanisms: Increase resources for testing facilities and train personnel to implement FSSAI standards more effectively, ensuring regular checks for sophisticated adulteration.
    • Develop India-Specific Testing Protocols: Create testing standards based on baseline data specific to Indian cows and local adulterants to improve accuracy in detecting food adulteration.

  • With 2026 target approaching, clearing of 50% landfill sites in big cities yet to start

    Why in the News?

    In the third year of the five-year Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM) Urban 2.0, larger cities have yet to clear land at half of their landfill sites. According to government sources, only 38% of the total waste has been remediated so far..

    Present State of Cities in India (related to legacy landfills):

    • Inadequate Progress in Waste Remediation: Three years into Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM) Urban 2.0, only 38% of the waste in legacy landfill sites across major cities has been remediated. About 62% of garbage still remains unprocessed, and 65% of the land has not been cleared.
    • Slow Progress in Large Cities:
      • In major cities with populations over 1 million, 35 out of 69 landfill sites have not had any land cleared.
      • Deonar landfill in Mumbai, the largest in India, has not seen any remediation or land clearance.
      • In Ahmedabad’s Pirana landfill, 48% of the total area has been cleared, while in Delhi’s Ghazipur and Bhalaswa landfills, waste remediation has begun, but no land has been reclaimed yet.
    • Challenges with Legacy and Fresh Waste: Legacy landfills remain a persistent issue as fresh waste is still being deposited at the same sites undergoing remediation. This cycle hampers progress, as more fresh waste offsets the clearance of older waste, making remediation efforts inefficient.
    Note: The Swachh Bharat Mission – Urban 2.0 (SBM-U 2.0), launched on October 1, 2021, aims to achieve a “Garbage Free” India by 2026. It focuses on sustainable sanitation, effective waste management, and enhancing urban cleanliness through initiatives like door-to-door waste collection and remediation of legacy dumpsites.

    What are the cities expected to do with reclaimed land?

    • Reuse Plans for Cleared Land: According to SBM Urban 2.0 guidelines, cities are expected to reuse cleared land after bioremediation for productive purposes such as:
      • Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF): Waste is processed into RDF for use in waste-to-energy plants.
      • Construction and Demolition Waste Recycling: Cleared waste is recycled for infrastructure projects.
      • Bio-soil: Reclaimed bio-soil is used for road construction or other land development projects.
    • Limited Action on Reuse: Despite these plans, the amount of land reclaimed from garbage dumps remains minimal in many cities, and detailed data on how reclaimed land is being utilized is lacking. As of now, the focus remains on remediation rather than immediate land reuse.

    Way forward: 

    • Develop Alternative Waste Processing Sites: Cities must create dedicated facilities to manage fresh waste separately from legacy landfills to avoid offsetting progress and ensure efficient remediation.
    • Accelerate Land Reuse Plans: Prioritize the swift repurposing of reclaimed land for productive uses, such as waste-to-energy plants, construction material recycling, and bio-soil applications, ensuring sustainable urban development.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q How could social influence and persuasion contribute to the success of Swachh Bharat Abhiyan? (UPSC IAS/2016)

  • 92% of workers cleaning urban sewers, septic tanks from SC, ST, OBC groups: survey

    Why in the News?

    Government data from over 3,000 urban local bodies across 29 States and Union Territories shows that 91.9% of the 38,000 sewer and septic tank cleaners profiles belong to SC, ST, or OBC communities.

    What are the socio-economic conditions of workers engaged in sewer and septic tank cleaning?

    • Demographics: A significant majority (91.9%) of the 38,000 profiled workers belong to marginalized communities: 68.9% Scheduled Castes (SC), 14.7% Other Backward Classes (OBC), 8.3% Scheduled Tribes (ST), and 8% from the general category.
    • Employment Status: The workforce largely comprises low-income individuals engaged in hazardous, low-status jobs, reflecting persistent caste-based disparities.
    • Capital Subsidies support: Since the launch of the NAMASTE program, ₹2.26 crore in capital subsidies have been distributed to 191 beneficiaries, indicating some financial support for transitioning into self-employment.

    How effective are current policies and rehabilitation schemes for sanitation workers?

    • NAMASTE Programme: Aimed at mechanizing sewer cleaning and providing safety training and equipment, the program is a replacement for the Self-Employment Scheme for Rehabilitation of Manual Scavengers (SRMS).
    • Enumeration Process: Over 3,326 urban local bodies (ULBs) are involved, with 38,000 workers profiled so far. However, 283 ULBs reported zero workers, suggesting that the profiling might not be comprehensive or that many workers are unrecognized.
    • Rehabilitation Success: Out of 58,098 identified manual scavengers under the previous SRMS scheme, 97.2% were from SC communities. While cash transfers of ₹40,000 were provided, only a fraction pursued skills training or loans for alternative livelihoods.

    What are the challenges?

    • Social Stigma: Predominantly from marginalized communities (SC, ST, OBC), these workers face discrimination, limiting their access to better job opportunities and social mobility.
    • Health Risks: Exposure to hazardous working conditions leads to significant health risks, with a high mortality rate (377 deaths from 2019 to 2023) due to unsafe practices.
    • Ineffective Rehabilitation: Current policies and support programs lack comprehensive coverage, leaving many workers unrecognized and limiting the effectiveness of financial assistance and training initiatives.

    What are the health risks and safety measures for workers in hazardous cleaning roles?

    • Hazardous Working Conditions: Between 2019 and 2023, 377 workers died from hazardous cleaning activities, highlighting the extreme risks associated with sewer and septic tank cleaning.
    • Safety Training: The NAMASTE program aims to provide safety training for workers to minimize health risks, but the effectiveness of such training needs further evaluation.
    • Equipment and Mechanization: The goal is to transition workers from manual cleaning to mechanized processes, reducing their exposure to dangerous conditions and improving overall safety.

    Way forward: 

    • Comprehensive Training and Support Programs: Enhance the effectiveness of the NAMASTE program by providing robust safety training and resources for workers, coupled with extensive outreach to ensure all workers are identified and supported, including those currently unrecognized.
    • Promotion of Mechanization and Safety Standards: Accelerate the mechanization of sewer cleaning operations to reduce health risks, and establish strict safety standards and regulations to protect workers, ensuring regular monitoring and enforcement of these standards.

  • Keep the fire of the self-respect movement going

    Why in the News?

    This year marks the beginning of the centenary of the “Self-Respect Movement”, a transformative movement with a unique mission to empower individuals and communities to challenge and dismantle the oppressive hierarchical structures that had subjugated them.

    What is the significance of the Self-Respect Movement?

    • Empowerment Against Hierarchical Structures: The Self-Respect Movement, founded by Periyar in 1925, aimed to dismantle the caste-based hierarchy that oppressed lower castes, especially in the Madras Presidency.
    • Social Reform Beyond Political Representation: The movement went beyond advocating for communal representation, focusing on equal rights for women, caste abolition, and the upliftment of the depressed classes.
      • It introduced radical reforms like self-respecting marriages and supported women’s rights such as property ownership, divorce, and widow remarriage.
    • Kudi Arasu’s Role: The Tamil weekly, Kudi Arasu (The Republic), served as a platform to spread Periyar’s critiques of Brahminism and the caste hierarchy, expanding the reach of the Self-Respect Movement.
    • Federalism and Political Autonomy: Periyar and the movement contributed to the evolution of federalism in India by advocating for regional autonomy and opposing the dominance of elite caste groups in politics.

    How can the principles of the self-respect movement be sustained and promoted?

    • Adaptation to Contemporary Issues: The movement must address modern complexities like the intersectionality of caste with class, religion, gender, and sexuality. Expanding the movement’s scope to include LGBTQIA+ rights and evolving gender norms will keep it relevant.
    • Counter-fack news on social media: Active communication with younger generations, particularly in countering right-wing narratives and caste biases on social media, is vital for promoting the movement’s ideals of equality and rationalism.
    • Reframing Social Justice in a Global Context: Sustaining the Self-Respect Movement’s legacy requires integrating its principles with global discussions on social justice, identity politics, and human rights.
    • Advocacy for Policy Reforms: Continuous advocacy for policies that address caste and gender inequalities, such as reservations and legal protection for self-respect marriages, can strengthen the movement’s impact.

    What challenges does the self-respect movement face in the current socio-political climate?

    • Cultural Homogenisation: The rise of Hindutva and right-wing ideologies seeks to homogenise India’s diverse cultures, undermining regional, linguistic, caste, and gender identities that the movement has historically sought to protect.
    • Evolving Caste Dynamics: While traditional caste practices may have declined in some areas, caste-based discrimination persists subtly in other forms, which the movement must continue to confront.
    • Digital Misinformation: The rise of social media has led to the spread of falsehoods that reinforce caste and group prejudices. The movement must actively engage in digital spaces to counter these narratives.
    • Caste-based politics: In states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, many regional political parties engage in caste-based politics, which indirectly obstructs the principles and application of the Self-Respect Movement.

    Way forward: 

    • Promote Inclusive Policy Reforms: The Indian government should enhance policies that target caste and gender inequalities, such as expanding legal protections for self-respect marriages and enforcing anti-discrimination laws, while ensuring marginalized communities have equitable access to resources and opportunities.
    • Strengthen Digital Literacy and Anti-Misinformation Efforts: The government should initiate programs to combat digital misinformation, particularly caste-based narratives, by promoting digital literacy, fact-checking, and inclusive content on social media platforms to foster equality and social harmony.

  • Why digitisation is not enough to reform land laws?

    Why in the News?

    India’s land governance system is a tangled web of laws that have significantly impeded the nation’s economic and social progress for many years.

    What are the limitations of digitisation in land law reform?

    • Failure to Address Legal Complexities: Digitisation alone does not resolve the underlying conflicts in land laws, such as unclear titles, insecure tenure, and legal ambiguities around land ownership and transfers.
    • Outdated Records: Even digitised land records may remain outdated or inaccurate, undermining the reliability of property titles and failing to improve access to formal credit.
    • Ineffectiveness in Fragmented Land Markets: Digitisation does not solve the issue of land fragmentation, which reduces agricultural productivity and hampers investment.
    • Limited Impact on Tenancy and Leasing Laws: Digitisation does not address restrictions on land leasing or tenancy, leaving land markets inefficient and informal.
    • Overreliance on Administrative Procedures: The complexities of legal and administrative frameworks still hinder land ownership, transfers, and use, despite digitisation efforts.
    • Political Exemptions from Judicial Review: The exclusion of land laws from judicial scrutiny through the Ninth Schedule limits accountability and the ability to challenge unjust political or administrative actions.

    How do socio-political factors influence the effectiveness of digitisation efforts?

    • Political Resistance: Local and state-level political interests may resist changes to land laws that could undermine entrenched power structures or vested interests, impeding the effectiveness of digitisation efforts.
    • Rent-Seeking Behavior: Complex land laws and administrative procedures encourage rent-seeking, making digitisation ineffective without legal reforms that simplify regulations.
    • Cultural Norms and Gender Disparities: Socio-political dynamics, especially regarding gender and caste, influence land ownership patterns, limiting the impact of digitisation in addressing social inequalities.
    • State Variability: Differences in state capacity, resources, and political will lead to uneven adoption and success of digitisation efforts across India.
    • Lack of Integration in Subsidy Targeting: Social and political factors, such as inefficient targeting of subsidies (e.g., fertiliser subsidies not linked to land records), limit the impact of digitisation on equitable resource distribution.
    • Exclusion from Judicial Review: The Ninth Schedule’s protection of land laws from judicial review allows political decisions to go unchallenged, reducing the long-term effectiveness of digitisation reforms.

    What additional measures are necessary for effective land law reform? (Way forward)

    • Comprehensive Legal Reforms: Overhaul conflicting land laws to ensure clarity, secure property titles, and strengthen property rights.
    • Tenancy and Leasing Reforms: Modernise and liberalise tenancy laws to formalise leasing arrangements and reduce the risk of expropriation.
    • Land Use Flexibility: Reforms allowing easier conversion of land use between agricultural, industrial, and residential sectors to ensure optimal land utilisation.
    • Land Consolidation Policies: Facilitate land consolidation to improve agricultural productivity and attract investment by reducing fragmentation.
    • Gender Equality in Land Ownership: Strengthen laws ensuring equal land and property rights for women, addressing gender-based inequalities in land ownership.
    • Judicial Oversight: Allow land laws to be subject to judicial review, ensuring fairness and protecting against arbitrary political and administrative decisions.

  • Fortifying the Basic Structure

    Why in the News?

    With the Union Cabinet’s approval of the report by the High-Level Committee recommending simultaneous elections for the Lok Sabha and state assemblies, the debate over “One Nation, One Election” (ONOE) has once again come to the forefront.

    How can Simultaneous Elections enhance governance and stability?

    • Reduction of Policy Paralysis: Simultaneous elections prevent the frequent imposition of the Model Code of Conduct (MCC), which temporarily halts new policy initiatives and decision-making. This ensures that governance continues uninterrupted.
    • Efficient Resource Allocation: Election authorities, security forces, and government resources would be deployed more efficiently since elections are held once in a fixed cycle, allowing for long-term planning and execution of policies.
    • Cost-Effective: Holding simultaneous elections reduces the cost of organizing elections multiple times, allowing the government to focus funds on development projects rather than repeated electoral processes.
    • Political Stability: It minimizes the risks of constant political instability caused by staggered elections, ensuring a stable policy environment for long-term economic and social development.

    About the Voter Engagement and Participation:

    • Voters may be more inclined to participate in elections if they only need to vote once to elect both state and national representatives, which can lead to improved engagement and turnout.
    • Simultaneous elections make the process more convenient for voters, as they need to participate only once, avoiding voter fatigue caused by frequent electoral exercises.
    • Voting for both state and national representatives at the same time can allow voters to make more informed decisions by seeing a clearer alignment of their political choices at both levels.

    Impact on Political Dynamics:

    • Level Playing Field: Simultaneous elections reduce the advantage for ruling parties that often leverage state elections for national influence and vice versa. Opposition parties will benefit from this, as their campaign resources and strategies can be focused at one time.
    • Less Populism: With fixed election dates, political parties may be less inclined to resort to short-term populist measures, allowing for more substantive debates on long-term issues.
    • Reduced Election Fatigue: Frequent elections can create voter fatigue and disengagement from political processes. Simultaneous elections reduce this fatigue, which can also lower campaign costs for parties.
    • Strategic Alliances: Parties may form more concrete alliances across states and national elections, leading to more coherent national and state-level strategies instead of fragmented political campaigning.

    Way forward: 

    • Constitutional and Legislative Reforms: Amendments to the Constitution and electoral laws should be carefully designed to align election cycles of the Lok Sabha and state assemblies, ensuring a smooth transition without undermining democratic processes.
    • Building Consensus Across Political Spectrum: A broad political consensus must be achieved through dialogue, involving all stakeholders to address concerns and mitigate opposition, ensuring that simultaneous elections are seen as a step toward democratic efficiency rather than partisanship.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q Simultaneous election to the Lok Sabha and the State Assemblies will limit the amount of time and money spent in electioneering but it will reduce the government’s accountability to the people’ Discuss. (UPSC IAS/2017)

  • Storms brewing in East, South China seas

    Why in the News?

    In recent years, maritime East Asia has witnessed escalating power struggles, with China claiming Japan-controlled Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea, sparking repeated tensions.

    What are the current geopolitical tensions in the East and South China Seas?

    • East China Sea: The main issue revolves around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, claimed by both China and Japan.
      • Tensions have escalated through incidents like the arrest of a Chinese fishing boat captain and Japan’s nationalization of the islands in 2012. The area also witnesses Chinese Coast Guard incursions.
    • South China Sea: China’s claims over most of the region, backed by aggressive actions such as the creation of artificial islands and naval exercises, have escalated tensions with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan.
      • China’s “Nine-Dash Line” claims have been rejected by international tribunals, but Beijing continues to push these claims.
    • USA Context: The U.S. maintains security alliances with Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, providing military backing. Joint exercises and increased cooperation between these allies.
      • The formation of the “Squad” (US, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines) highlights the coordination to counterbalance China’s influence.

    How do climate change and environmental factors impact storm patterns in these regions?

    • Storm Patterns and Rising Seas: The region is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events, including typhoons, which are becoming more intense and frequent due to climate change.
      • Rising sea levels and changing storm patterns threaten coastal communities, military installations, and infrastructure.
    • Erosion of Islands: The creation of artificial islands by China is accelerating coastal erosion and destroying coral reefs, which are critical to local marine ecosystems.

    What are the implications of military activities by regional powers in the East and South China Seas?

    • Growing Militarization: China has rapidly expanded its military presence, including the construction of airstrips, ports, and other defense infrastructure.
      • The Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militias have been active in harassing the vessels of other claimant states, particularly in the South China Sea.
    • Challenge the US Navy: China’s military activities are seen as part of its broader strategy to challenge U.S. naval supremacy in the Indo-Pacific. This strategy also includes controlling vital sea lanes, undersea cables, and energy reserves.

    How are local communities and economies affected?

    • Economic Disruption: China’s actions in the South China Sea, particularly around disputed fishing areas, have impacted local economies dependent on fishing.
    • Maritime Trade: The region is home to critical sea lanes through which a significant portion of global trade, including energy supplies, passes. Any conflict or blockade in these waters would have severe global economic ramifications.
    • Impact on Tourism: The increasing militarization and tension also negatively impact tourism in coastal areas.

    Way forward: 

    • Strengthening Maritime Partnerships: India should enhance its strategic maritime partnerships in the Indo-Pacific through forums like the Quad (India, U.S., Japan, and Australia) and ASEAN to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific.
    • Economic and Infrastructure Diplomacy: India can leverage initiatives like SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) and enhance its economic presence by investing in infrastructure, connectivity, and capacity-building projects in Southeast Asian countries.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q South China Sea has assumed great geopolitical significance in the present context. Comment. (UPSC IAS/2016)

  • How global warming affect forecasting?

    Why in the News?

    The record warming of 2023-2024 is offering a clearer view of the impacts of global warming. The range of extreme events experienced globally has spanned from deadly heatwaves to devastating cyclones and floods, as well as droughts and wildfires.

    Impact of Warming on Predictability:

    • Increased Variability: The record warming of 2023-2024 highlights the unpredictability of climate systems under global warming, complicating forecasts for natural phenomena like El Niño, monsoons, and hurricanes.
    • Natural Variability: Warming may extend the timescale of natural decadal variability, making it harder to distinguish between short-term fluctuations and long-term trends in climate behaviour.
    • Model Limitations: Despite advances, climate models are imperfect in capturing changes in dominant climate modes due to warming, leading to inconsistencies in predicting events like monsoon trends.

    Types of Climate Models to forecast the weather: 

    1. General Circulation Models (GCMs): These models simulate the physics of the climate system by representing the interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land, and ice. They divide the Earth into a three-dimensional grid and calculate climate variables like temperature and humidity in each grid cell.
    2. Earth System Models (ESMs): An advanced subset of GCMs that includes biogeochemical cycles, allowing them to simulate interactions between climate and ecological processes, such as carbon and nitrogen cycles.
    3. Regional Climate Models (RCMs): These focus on smaller geographic areas to provide more detailed climate projections by using outputs from GCMs as inputs for localized simulations.
    4. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs): These combine climate science with socioeconomic factors to analyze how human activities influence climate change and to project future emissions scenarios.

    Challenges in Forecasting Extreme Weather:

    • Inconsistent Predictions: Predictions for extreme weather events in 2023, such as the monsoon and hurricane seasons, were less accurate, revealing the limitations of current models and observational networks.
    • Unforeseen Factors: Unanticipated contributions, like the impact of the Hunga Tonga volcano or wildfire-induced CO2 emissions, exacerbated warming in ways models failed to predict, illustrating the unpredictability of new factors.
    • Censorship Concerns: The rapid response required from social media platforms to act on content flagged as misleading within 36 hours created concerns about censorship and freedom of expression.

    Future of Weather Prediction Models:

    • Need for Model Improvements: There is ongoing work to refine models and incorporate the latest technologies, including AI and machine learning, to improve weather prediction accuracy at hyperlocal scales.
    • Natural Modes and Uncertainty: The predictability of natural modes (El Niño, La Niña, IOD) may decrease with relentless warming, making future climate forecasts increasingly uncertain.
    • Short-Term Focus: A shift toward short-term predictions (up to a decade or two) may offer more reliable projections due to the inherent difficulty in predicting long-term scenarios under continuous global warming.

    Way forward: 

    • Enhanced Climate Models: Invest in improving climate models with cutting-edge technologies like AI, machine learning, and advanced sensors to increase the accuracy of short-term forecasts and better capture the impact of natural variability under warming.
    • Localized Early Warning Systems: Develop robust, hyperlocal early warning systems to better prepare for extreme weather events, focusing on disaster management and reducing vulnerabilities in high-risk communities.

  • Taking stock of global nuclear disarmament

    Why in the News?

    September 26 is recognized on the United Nations calendar as the International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons.

    What is the current state of global nuclear disarmament efforts?

    • Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW): The TPNW, in force since 2021, is the first legally binding international agreement that comprehensively bans nuclear weapons. As of July 2024, it has 70 states parties and 27 signatories yet to ratify, covering nearly 50% of the world’s states.
    • Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): The NPT, in effect since 1970, remains the foundational treaty aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and promoting eventual disarmament. However, it has been criticized for its limited focus on actual disarmament.
    • Persistent Objectors: Nuclear-armed states (such as the U.S., Russia, China, India, and Pakistan) and their allies have consistently opposed the TPNW, refusing to be bound by its provisions.

    What are the key obstacles hindering further nuclear disarmament?

    • Nuclear Deterrence Doctrine: The belief in nuclear deterrence — the idea that possessing nuclear weapons prevents attacks — is a central justification for continued nuclear armament.
    • Nuclear-Weapon States’ Resistance: The nuclear-armed states, including the U.S., Russia, China, India, and others, continue to view nuclear weapons as essential to their security strategies, despite claims of disarmament commitments under the NPT.
    • Geopolitical Conflicts: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s rising military power, North Korea’s nuclear tests, and Iran’s uranium enrichment, have exacerbated the global nuclear threat, further impeding disarmament efforts.
    • Lack of Enforcement Mechanisms: The TPNW, while normatively important, lacks robust enforcement mechanisms. It depends on the voluntary commitment of states, and nuclear possessors do not face direct penalties for non-compliance.

    What steps can be taken to reinvigorate the nuclear disarmament agenda? (Way forward)

    • Strengthening International Advocacy: Civil society, former political leaders (including NATO officials), and international organizations should continue advocating for disarmament and urging nuclear-armed states and their allies to reconsider their stance. Public pressure could create the political will for further disarmament steps.
    • Engagement of Non-Nuclear States: States that are non-nuclear but support the TPNW should work to expand the treaty’s footprint, encouraging more countries to ratify and actively participate in its framework. This could help isolate nuclear possessors diplomatically and morally.
    • Building Confidence through Arms Control Treaties: Reviving arms control agreements, such as the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the New START treaty, would be important milestones in reducing nuclear risks.

    About CTBT: 

    • Complete Ban on Nuclear Testing: The CTBT prohibits all forms of nuclear explosions—whether for military or civilian purposes—across all environments, including underground, atmospheric, and underwater.
    • Robust Verification Mechanism: The treaty includes an International Monitoring System (IMS) of over 300 monitoring stations worldwide, capable of detecting nuclear tests, as well as provisions for on-site inspections to ensure compliance with the treaty’s terms.
    • India is not a signatory to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).
    • Diplomatic Pressure and Dialogue: Encouraging diplomatic dialogue, especially among the major nuclear powers, could help mitigate tensions and create pathways to gradual disarmament. Leaders must explore confidence-building measures, transparency, and mutual reductions in nuclear arsenals.