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  • Parliament – Sessions, Procedures, Motions, Committees etc

    Anti defection: Related issues

    Explainedop-ed snap | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Parliament & State Legislatures

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Tenth Schedule

    Mains level: Paper 2- Exemptions to anti-defection laws

    Context

    In its verdict in the Goa MLAs case, Bombay High Court has misread the 10th schedule of the Constitution, which was meant to prevent horse trading among legislators.

    Understanding the Paragraph (4) of Tenth Schedule

    • Paragraph (4) is an exception to the Tenth Schedule’s main provisions.
    • It operates only when the defectors’ original political party has merged with the party to which they have defected and two-thirds of the members of the legislature belonging to that party have agreed to the merger.
    • Under this provision, the merger of the original political party has to take place first, followed by two-thirds of the MLAs agreeing to that merger.
    • The basic premise of the February 25 judgment is that sub-paragraph (2) is distinct from the parent paragraph, and a factual merger of the original political party is not necessary.
    • This does not square with the content, context and thrust of paragraph (4), which contemplates the factual merger of the original political party — in this case, the INC.
    • The court’s view — the merger of the 10 MLAs of the Congress Legislative Party with the BJP should be regarded as the Congress itself merging with the BJP — goes against the letter and spirit of the Tenth Schedule, paragraph (4) in particular.

    Process for the merger: 2 conditions need to be satisfied

    • 1] Merger alone is not enough: The opening words of sub-paragraph (2) — “for the purposes of sub-paragraph (1) of this paragraph” — clearly mean that to exempt a member from disqualification on account of defection, and for considering this member’s claim that he has become a member of the party with which the merger has taken place, a merger of two political parties alone is not enough.
    • 2] Not less than 2/3 members should also agree: Not less than two-thirds of the members should also agree to such a merger.
    • The lawmakers made it tough for potential defectors to defect.
    •  The words “such merger” make it clear beyond any shadow of doubt that the merger of the original political party has to take place before two-thirds of the members agree to such a merger.
    • The members of the legislature cannot agree among themselves to merge as the court has said, but they can agree to a merger after it takes place.

    Conclusion

    The anti-defection law was designed to eliminate political defection. However, the judgment of the Bombay HC seems to assume that paragraph (4) of the 10th schedule is meant to facilitate defection. This judgment is likely to open the flood gates to defection. The Supreme Court must intervene quickly.

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  • Electoral Reforms In India

    Opinion polls

    op-ed snap | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Representation Of People’s Act

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Read the attached story

    Mains level: Exit and Opinion Polls in India

    Every election season, we find television channels flooded with opinion polls and subsequently exit polls after the casting of votes.

    What are Opinion Polls?

    • Opinion polls are similar to surveys or an inquiry designed to gauge public opinion about a specific issue or a series of issues in a scientific and unbiased manner.
    • This term has got wide recognition for assessing outcomes of elections in India.
    • In most democracies, opinion and exit polls are common during elections.
    • In India, the ECI allows the dissemination of the exit poll results half an hour after the end of polling on the last poll day.

    How are they conducted?

    • Interviewers/reporters ask questions of people chosen at random from the population being measured.
    • Responses are given, and interpretations are made based on the results.
    • It is important in a random sample that everyone in the population being studied has an equal chance of participating.
    • Otherwise, the results could be biased and, therefore, not representative of the population.

    Need of such polls

    • Popular opinion: Polls are simply a measurement tool that tells us how a population thinks and feels about any given topic.
    • Specific viewpoint: Polls tell us what proportion of a population has a specific viewpoint.
    • Opportunity to express: Opinion polling gives people who do not usually have access to the media an opportunity to be heard.

    Issues with such polls (in context to elections)

    • Authenticity: Critics have often questioned their authenticity.
    • Manipulation of voters: This largely manipulates the voting behavior.
    • Sensationalization by media: The media, on the other hand, invariably opposes the idea of a ban as seat forecasts attract primetime viewership.
    • Ridiculing the public mandate: The exit polls largely disrespect public opinions inciting confusion regarding the election mandate.

    Why does it persist in India?

    Ans. Exercise of Free Speech

    • The opposition to the ban in India is mainly on the ground that freedom of speech and expression is granted by the Constitution (Article 19).
    • What is conveniently forgotten is that this freedom is not absolute and allows for “reasonable restrictions” in the same article.

    Limited restrictions that we have in India

    • RP Act: The Indian Penal Code and Representation of the People Act, 1951 do contain certain restrictions against disinformation.
    • Restrictions on A19: While the Constitution allows for reasonable restrictions on freedom of expression, its mandate to the ECI for free and fair elections is absolute.
    • Supreme Court interpretations: The Supreme Court (SC), in a series of judgments, has emphasized this requirement.
    • Basic structure doctrine: It considers free and fair elections is the basic structure of the Constitution (PUCL vs Union of India, 2003; NOTA judgment, 2013).

    Examples of restrictions

    • Restrictions are imposed in many countries, extending from two to 21 days prior to the poll — Canada, France, Italy, Poland, Turkey, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, to name a few examples.
    • In India, all political parties too have opposed these polls, demanding a ban — except when they are shown as winning.

    Why does the ECI feel that opinion polls interfere with free and fair elections?

    • Prevalence of paid news in India: Having seen “paid news” in action, it apprehends that some opinion polls may be sponsored, motivated and biased.
    • Opacity: Almost all polls are non-transparent, providing little information on the methodology.
    • Propaganda: Subtle propaganda on casteist, religious and ethnic basis as well as by the use of sophisticated means like the alleged poll surveys create public distrust in poll process.
    • Disinformation: With such infirmities, many “polls” amount to misinformation that can result in “undue influence”, which is an “electoral offense” under IPC Section 171 (C). It is a “corrupt practice” under section 123 (2) of the RP Act.
    • Betting: The polling agencies manipulate the margin of error, victory margin for candidates, seat projections for a party or hide negative findings.

    Call for a ban in India

    • The demand for a ban on opinion polls is not new.
    • At all-party meets called by the Election Commission in 1997 and 2004, there was unanimous demand for a ban.
    • The difference of opinion was only on whether the ban should apply from the announcement of the poll schedule or the date of notification.

    Moves by ECI

    • In 1998, the ECI issued guidelines that were challenged in the SC.
    • A five-judge Constitution Bench asked the ECI how it would enforce these decisions in the absence of a law.
    • Realizing its weakness, the ECI withdrew the guidelines.
    • Unfortunately, this left the constitutionality of the issue

    Way forward

    • Independent regulator: Ideally a body like the British Polling Council would be a viable option. India could set up its own professional, self-regulated body on the same lines say Indian Polling Council.
    • Mandatory disclosure: All polling agencies must disclose for scrutiny the sponsor, besides sample size, methodology, time frame, quality of training of research staff, etc.

     

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India – EU

    India-Britain free trade agreement

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- India-UK FTA

    Context

    In May last year, Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Boris Johnson announced their shared vision for a transformative decade for the India-United Kingdom partnership. These words have now been made real.

    Transforming India-UK partnership

    • Doubling bilateral trade: The two leaders had declared their ambition to more than double bilateral trade by 2030, which totalled over £23 billion in 2019.
    • Reduce barriers to trade: They directed their governments to take rapid steps to reduce barriers to trade.
    • FTA: The groundwork necessary to begin work on a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) had to be prepared by the end of 2021.
    • Both governments have already taken action; for example, unlocking the export of British apples to India and enabling a greater number of Indian fisheries to export shrimp to the U.K.
    • The big next step was the launch of FTA negotiations last month.

    Trade relations at present

    • Bilateral trade: The bilateral trade between the two countries stood at 15.5 billion USD in 2019-20. India has engaged with the UK in sectors like pharma, textiles, leather, industrial machinery, furniture, and toys.
      • Britain is among the top investors in India and India is the second-biggest investor and a major job creator in Britain. Recently, the Serum Institute of India has announced setting up its research facilities in the UK.
    • Indian Diaspora: Around 1.5 million people of Indian origin live in Britain. This includes 15 Members of Parliament, three members in Cabinet, and two in high office as Finance and Home Ministers.
    • India is already a big investor in the U.K. — especially in dynamic sectors such as fintech, electric vehicles, and batteries.
    • India has an extraordinary opportunity to transform its economy and society in the next 30 years, as it hits its demographic sweet spot, at the heart of the Indo-Pacific region where half the world’s people live and 50% of global economic growth is produced.

    Benefits of FTA

    • A U.K.-India trade agreement will stimulate growth and employment in both countries. 
    • Lower barriers coupled with greater regulatory certainty would incentivize new small and medium-sized enterprises to export their goods and services.
    • An agreement also means Indian and British consumers see improvements in the variety and affordability of products.
    • Strategic reasons: The British Government’s Integrated Review of our overseas policy, describes the world we are in; messier, with the more geostrategic competition.
    • It is one in which two dynamic democracies such as India and the U.K. need to work closely together to promote open economies.

    Consider the question “Colonial prism has long distorted the perception of India-UK relation. However, both the countries stand to gain by finding a fresh basis for sustaining bilateral relations. Comment.”  

    Conclusion

    An FTA would mark a new way of working between the U.K. and India. It gives a new framework within which the two countries can grow and flourish together, putting the colonial economic relationship where it belongs — in the history books.

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  • Government Budgets

    Fiscal management during a pandemic

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Government Budgeting

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: FRBM Act

    Mains level: Paper 3- Fiscal consolidation

    Context

    The fiscal deficit for the year 2022-23 is higher than what was recommended by the Fifteenth Finance Commission. However, if we consider the direction of consolidation, it is towards a reduction in the fiscal deficit.

    The budget focuses on capital investment

    • This year’s Union budget projects an increase in capex by Rs 3.14 lakh crore, as compared to the budgeted numbers of the previous fiscal.
    • Given the economy’s savings-investment profile and macroeconomic uncertainties due to the pandemic, private and household investments are likely to be reactive to the general economic environment.
    • Achieving sustainable recovery: For the government, making capital investment in such uncertain times assumes a much higher priority and is equally indispensable for achieving a strong and sustainable recovery from the pandemic.
    • Increasing share of government: As per National Accounts data, gross fixed capital formation by the general government (Centre and states) has shown an increase as a percentage of GDP from 3.48 in 2011-12 to 3.82 in 2019-20, while other sectors, particularly households, the share fell from 15.75 per cent to 11.39 per cent during the same period.
    • The fiscal stance taken in the post-pandemic budgets for higher capital spending, including the budget of 2022-23, is likely to further enhance the general government share in overall capital formation. 
    • Important role of the States: it is also important to recognise that two-thirds of the general government’s capital expenditure is undertaken by states and in this context, the announcement of the Rs 1 lakh crore interest-free loans to the states to increase public investment has been a significant step.
    •  Since states taken together have a higher share in the country’s public capital spending, effective absorption of this additional borrowing facility will be critical for higher public investment.

    Three broad trends on Fiscal Consolidation

    • 1] Increase in taxes: The increase in taxes by Rs 5.71 lakh crore between 2020-21 (the first year of the pandemic) and 2022-23 shows that the fiscal challenges have eased, but remain present as we navigate economic recovery in uncertain times.
    • 2] Reduction in revenue deficit: Between 2020-21 and 2022-23 (BE), the reduction in revenue deficit has been substantial — from 7.3 per cent to 3.8 per cent of GDP.
    • 3] Revenue deficit dominates fiscal deficit: Compositionally, revenue deficit continues to be more than 55 per cent of the fiscal deficit and the management of such a deficit has few important considerations for revenue expenditure, that is, interest payments and allocation under various centrally sponsored and central sector schemes.
    • Role of CSS in revenue deficit: Aggregate allocation under centrally sponsored and central sector schemes (CSS) as per the 2022-23 (BE) is Rs 3.83 lakh crore and the interest payment cost of the Union government is Rs 9.56 lakh crore.
    • Beyond scheme-wise allocations, it is also important to consider CSS allocation as an issue of macro-fiscal management issue at the Union and state level, especially when it is contributing to the high revenue deficit of the central government and binding state resources for matching contribution, thereby increasing states’ deficit.

    Understanding the direction of fiscal consolidation

    • The fiscal deficit for the year 2022-23 is higher than what was recommended by the Fifteenth Finance Commission.
    • However, if we consider the direction of consolidation, it is towards a reduction in the fiscal deficit.
    • Though in the medium-term, the fiscal story is about supporting recovery, it is also true that there is no “one-size-fits-all” solution to fiscal consolidation and debt sustainability. 

    Conclusion

    The direction of fiscal consolidation rather than a specific quantified path in an unprecedented time like this is probably the most appropriate consideration.

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-China

    Delinking Depsang from the ongoing Ladakh border crisis is worrying

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Aksai Chin

    Mains level: Paper 2- Border conflict with China

    Context

    In a recent television interview, the Indian Army Chief, General M.M. Naravane, argued that “out of the five or six friction points (in Ladakh), five have been solved”.

    Friction points in Ladakh

    • ‘Friction point’ are the points of Chinese ingress into hitherto India-controlled territory in Ladakh, where this control is exercised by the Army and the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) through regular patrols to the claimed areas.
    • These ‘friction points’ are Depsang, Galwan, Hot Springs, Gogra, North bank of Pangong Tso, Kailash Range and Demchok.
    • By asserting that only one of the friction points is remaining to be resolved —  Hot Springs or PP15, Army Chief implicitly ruled out Depsang as an area to be resolved.
    • This attempt to delink the strategically important area of Depsang from the ongoing Ladakh border crisis is worrying.

    Significance of Depsang

    • Depsang is an enclave of flat terrain located in an area the Army classifies as Sub-Sector North (SSN), which provides land access to Central Asia through the Karakoram Pass.
    • The Army has always identified Depsang plains as where it finds itself most vulnerable in Ladakh, devising plans to tackle the major Chinese challenge.
    • SSN’s flat terrain of Depsang, Trig Heights and DBO — which provides direct access to Aksai Chin — is suited for mechanised warfare but is located at the end of only one very long and tenuous communication axis for India.
    • China, in turn, has multiple roads that provide easy access to the area.
    • This leaves SSN highly vulnerable to capture by the PLA, with a few thousands of square kilometres from the Karakoram Pass to Burtse, likely to be lost.
    • Nowhere else in Ladakh is the PLA likely to gain so much territory in a single swoop.
    • SSN lies to the east of Siachen, located between the Saltoro ridge on the Pakistani border and the Saser ridge close to the Chinese border.
    • On paper, it is the only place where a physical military collusion can take place between Pakistan and China — and the challenge of a two-front war can become real in the worst-case scenario.
    • If India loses this area, it will be nearly impossible to launch a military operation to wrest back Gilgit-Baltistan from Pakistan.

    Dangers of delinking Depsang

    • Invalidation of Indian claims: The biggest danger of delinking Depsang from the current border crisis in Ladakh, however, is of corroborating the Chinese argument, which invalidates the rightful Indian claim over a large swathe of territory. 
    • In sparsely populated areas like Ladakh, with limited forward deployment of troops, the only assertion of territorial claims is by regular patrolling. 
    • By arguing that the blockade at Y-junction predates the current stand-off — a ‘legacy issue’ that goes back years — the Chinese side can affirm that Indian patrols never had access to this area and thus India has no valid claim on the territory.

    Conclusion

    As was demonstrated by China in the aftermath of the 1962 War, there should be no holding back in painstakingly asserting one’s claims when it comes to safeguarding the territory.

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  • Artificial intelligence technologies have a climate cost

    op-ed snap | Science Tech | Mains Paper 3: Awareness in various sc and tech fields

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: AI

    Mains level: Paper 3- Climate cost of AI

    Context

    While there is an allure to national dreams of economic prosperity and global competitiveness, underwritten by AI, there is an environmental cost.

    Issues with AI

    • Unfair race for dominance in AI:  A few developed economies possess certain material advantages right from the start, they also set the rules.
    • They have an advantage in research and development, and possess a skilled workforce as well as wealth to invest in AI.
    • Inequality in terms of governance: We can also look at the state of inequity in AI in terms of governance: How “tech fluent” are policymakers in developing and underdeveloped countries?
    • What barriers do they face in crafting regulations and industrial policy?
    • At the same time, there is an emerging challenge at the nexus of AI and climate change that could deepen this inequity.

    Climate impact of AI

    • The climate impact of AI comes in a few forms: The energy use of training and operating large AI models is one.
    •  In 2020, digital technologies accounted for between 1.8 per cent and 6.3 per cent of global emissions.
    •  In November 2021, UNESCO adopted the  In November 2021, UNESCO adopted the Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence, calling on actors to “reduce the environmental impact of AI systems, including but not limited to its carbon footprint.” , calling on actors to “reduce the environmental impact of AI systems, including but not limited to its carbon footprint.”

    Inequitable access to resources

    • Both global AI governance and climate change policy (historically) are contentious, being rooted in inequitable access to resources.
    • Developing and underdeveloped countries face a challenge on two fronts:
    • 1] AI’s social and economic benefits are accruing to a few countries.
    • 2] Most of the current efforts and narratives on the relationship between AI and climate impact are being driven by the developed West.

    Way forward

    • Assess technology-led priorities: Governments of developing countries, India included, should also assess their technology-led growth priorities in the context of AI’s climate costs.
    •  It is argued that as developing nations are not plagued by legacy infrastructure it would be easier for them to “build up better”.

    Consider the question “How Artificial Intelligence technologies could transform the world as we know it? What are the concerns with it?

    Conclusion

    It may be worth thinking through what “solutions” would truly work for the unique social and economic contexts of the communities in our global village.

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  • Missed opportunity to opportunity of employment-centred and inclusive growth

    op-ed snap | Governance | Mains Paper 2: Government Scheme/Policies,Health & Education

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Pradhan Mantri Poshan Shakti Nirman

    Mains level: Paper 2- Low allocation for social sector

    Context

    India continues to rank poorly in various global indices that reflect the quality of life, human capital or human development in the country. In this context, it was expected that the current Budget would see an expansion in government spending on the social sector.

    Need for greater spending on social sector

    • In Human Development Index, India ranks 131 out of 189 countries and on the Global Hunger Index, it ranks 101 out of 116 countries.
    • The pandemic over the last two years has had a severe impact on the health, education and food security of the poor and informal sector workers.
    • The country has been experiencing increasing inequality over the last couple of decades.

    Marginal increase in allocation for school education

    • In the budget, the government announced that it will expand its ‘one class, oneTVchannel’ scheme instead of announcing enhanced allocations for schools  the government announced that it will expand its ‘one class, oneTVchannel’ scheme instead of announcing enhanced allocations for schools so that they can reopen with vigour.
    •  The budget for school education at ₹63,449 crore is a slight improvement over last year’s ₹54,873 crore (2021-22 budget estimates, BE) and a mere increase of 6% in nominal terms compared to 2020-21 BE of ₹59,845 crore.
    • After rechristening the school mid-day meal scheme as Pradhan Mantri Poshan Shakti Nirman, simply called PM Poshan, the allocation for the scheme has reduced from ₹11,500 crore last year to ₹10,233 crore this year.

    Low allocation for health

    • Despite repeated statements about strengthening the public health system, the overall budget for the Department of Health and Family Welfare at ₹83,000 crore has gone up by only 16% over the BE for 2021-22 and by less than ₹1,000 crore compared to the RE for 2021-22, which is ₹82,921 crore.
    • However, by including water and sanitation in the budget for health, there is an increase being shown in health spending as a proportion of GDP.
    • Also, even though the budget for the Jal Jeevan Mission has increased from ₹50,000 crore to ₹60,000 crore, only 44% of the allocated funds to the Department of Water and Sanitation for 2021-22 has been spent as on end December 2021.

    No indication of plan to extend the PMGKAY

    • 60% of the population are covered by ration cards currently under the National Food Security Act.
    • Those who were eligible benefited from the additional free foodgrains that they have been given under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY).
    • However, the food subsidy (BE) for 2022-23 at ₹2.06 lakh crore is only enough to cover the regular NFSA entitlements.
    • The indication is that there is no plan to extend the PMGKAY.
    • The food subsidy RE for 2021-22 is ₹2.86 lakh crore.

    Other schemes

    • Budgets for important schemes such as Saksham Anganwadi, maternity entitlements and social security pensions are around the same as the allocations for last year.
    • The allocation for MGNREGA at ₹73,000 crore also does not reflect the increased demand for work or thethe pending wages of ₹21,000 crore.

    Continued negligence

    • The resources allocated for crucial government schemes in the fields of health, education, nutrition, and social protection have remained stagnant or show negligent increase.
    • In fact, the budgets for these schemes have been declining in real terms since 2015.
    • The World Social Protection Report 2020-22, brought out by the International Labour Organization, shows that the spending on social protection (excluding health) in India is 1.4% of the GDP, while the average for low-middle income countries is 2.5%.

    Conclusion

    This continued negligence does not bode well for inclusive development in India.

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  • Judicial Pendency

    The Supreme Court fails to decide key constitutional cases in time-bound manner

    op-ed snap | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Executive & Judiciary

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: CAA

    Mains level: Paper 2- Pendency of important cases

    Context

    Unless the Court strives in every possible way to assure that the Constitution, the law, applies fairly to all citizens, the Court cannot be said to have fulfilled its custodial responsibility.

    Landmark judgments

    • In the last few years, the Indian Supreme Court has delivered some judgments of far-reaching consequence.
    • It declared the right to privacy a fundamental right; decriminalized consensual sexual conduct between adults of the same sex; recognized transgender persons as the third gender; and outlawed triple talaq.
    • These decisions shore up the belief in republican values like liberty and equality reified in our Constitution.

    Important cases pending in the Supreme Court

    • Constitutionality of CAA: Many petitions were filed before the Supreme Court challenging the constitutionality of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019, that provides non-Muslim communities from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan a fast-track route to Indian citizenship.
    • More than two years later, the matter continues to languish in the apex court.
    • Dilution of Article 370: Innumerable petitions have been filed challenging the Presidential Order of August 5, 2019, that effectually diluted Article 370 of the Constitution.
    • To date, the court has done precious little to decide this vexed question of law.
    • Constitutionality of 103rd amendment: Petitions challenging the constitutionality of the Constitution(One Hundred and Third Amendment)Act,2019 that provides reservations in public educational institutions and government jobs for economically weaker sections are also languishing in the Supreme Court.
    • Challenges to the electoral bond scheme: The Supreme Court has failed to accord proper hearing in the last four years to the constitutional challenge to the electoral bonds scheme.

    Conclusion

    Unless the Court strives in every possible way to assure that the Constitution, the law, applies fairly to all citizens, the Court cannot be said to have fulfilled its custodial responsibility”.

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  • Nuclear Diplomacy and Disarmament

    Why UNSC joint statement on nuclear weapons is important

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Effect Of Policies & Politics Of World On India’S Interests

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- P5 joint statement on nuclear weapons

    Context

    The leaders of five nuclear-weapons States — the US, Russia, China, the UK, and France, also known as the P5 issued a joint statement on preventing nuclear war and avoiding the ongoing global arms race.

    Overview of the P5 statement

    • It is not a binding resolution and reiterates some of the core obligations of the NPT.
    • The P5 statement reaffirms that a “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought” because of its “far-reaching consequences”.
    • The statement also expresses a commitment to the group’s Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) obligations and “to prevent the unauthorized or unintended use of nuclear weapons”.
    • Declaring that an arms race would benefit none and endanger all, the P5 have undertaken to:
    • (1) work with all states to create a security environment more conducive to progress on disarmament with the ultimate goal of a world without nuclear weapons.
    • (2) continue seeking bilateral and multilateral diplomatic approaches to avoid military confrontations, strengthen stability and predictability, increase mutual understanding and confidence”.
    • (3) pursue “constructive dialogue with mutual respect and acknowledgment of each other’s security interests and concerns”.

    Bold action on 6 measures

    • Bold action on six fronts is necessary.
    • 1) Chart a path for nuclear disarmament: That member states should chart a path forward on nuclear disarmament.
    • 2) Transparency and dialogue: They should agree to new measures of “transparency and dialogue”.
    • 3) Address nuclear crises: They should address the “simmering” nuclear crises in the Middle East and Asia.
    • 4) Strengthen global bodies: They should strengthen the existing global bodies that support non-proliferation, including the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
    • 5) Peaceful use of nuclear technology: They should promote the peaceful use of nuclear technology.
    • 6) Elimination of nuclear weapons: they should remind “the world’s people that eliminating nuclear weapons is the only way to guarantee that they will never be used.

    Peace education and the right to peace

    • Peace is necessary for rights, freedom, equality, and justice, and for that reason, we need what Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. called “education in the obvious”— namely, peace education.
    • This is required at multiple levels, ranging across the planetary, global, supranational, regional, national, and local levels of social cognition and action.
    •  UN Resolution 39/11 (November 12, 1984) proclaims that the peoples of our planet have a sacred right to peace and equally solemnly declares that the “preservation of the right of peoples to peace and the promotion of its implementation constitute a fundamental obligation of each State”.
    • The subsequent UN Resolution 53/243 B, declaring a program of action for a culture of peace (1999) also owes a great deal to Gandhi’s legacy and mission.

    Conclusion

    The statement is politically significant given the unimaginable danger posed by the 13,000 nuclear weapons currently believed to be held by a handful of countries, and the growing specter of loose nukes, which may be deployed by armed terrorist groups for nefarious purposes.

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  • How India can adapt to global geoeconomic churn

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- Adapting to geopolitical and geoeconomic changes

    Context

    As India returns to a high growth path after a slowdown in the last decade, its geopolitical salience in the world will continue to rise.

    India’s growth story

    •  Today, India’s GDP is $3.1 trillion and could cross, according to some estimates, $8 trillion by the end of this decade.
    •  India’s total trade, which was about $38 billion in 1991-92, is expected to touch $1.3 trillion this year.
    •  This is about 40 percent of India’s GDP and underlines the fact that India is more deeply tied to the world than ever before.
    • The world itself is in a geo-economic churn making the transition to $8 trillion a challenging one.

    Geo-economic and geopolitical changes in the global order

    Geo-economic changes

    • It was Edward Luttwak, the well-known American strategist, who triggered a global discourse on the idea of geoeconomics in a seminal article in 1990 amidst the end of the Cold War.
    • Using economic dominance for political gain: The rapid economic rise of China in the last three decades and Beijing’s success in leveraging its growing economic clout for political gain is widely seen as a classic example of geoeconomics.
    • Economic interdependence: Luttwak’s warning against illusions of economic interdependence and globalization have been borne out by major changes in US-China relations in recent years.
    • The dramatic expansion of economic interdependence between China and America over the last four decades — what some called “Chimerica” — was the principal evidence for the thesis that geopolitics and ideology no longer mattered.
    • Chimerica was held up as an efficient economic fusion that underscored the virtues of economic globalization.
    • However, economic nationalism has re-emerged in both countries today.
    • The US is also strengthening domestic research and industrial capabilities to compete more effectively with China.
    • China too has adopted the economic strategy of “dual circulation” that focuses on strengthening domestic capabilities and reducing exposure to external factors.

    How geopolitical and geoeconomic changes are influencing India’s free trade policies

    • At the end of 2019, India has walked out from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) suggesting that the costs of joining a China-centered regional economic order are unacceptable.
    • Deepening engagement with complementary economies: India’s move towards free trade agreements with countries like Australia, Britain, UAE, and Israel.
    • Domestic orientation: Much like the US and China, India is now taking a number of initiatives to promote domestic manufacturing in a range of sectors under the banner of “Atmanirbhar Bharat”.

    Way forward for India

    • Until now, India had the luxury of treating its foreign, economic, and strategic policies as separate domains.
    • An integrated approach to policies: Adapting to the current global geo-economic churn demands that Delhi finds better ways to integrate its financial, trade, technological, security, and foreign policies.
    • Above all India needs a strategy that can respond to the imperatives of building domestic capabilities, developing geo-economic partnerships, and constructing geopolitical coalitions with like-minded countries.

    Consider the question “How the current geo-political and geo-economic policies are shaping India’s trade policies? Suggest the approach India need to adapt to the structural changes taking place in the global order?” 

    Conclusion

    India’s selective trade arrangements and the policies to promote domestic manufacturing have drawn much criticism. While those arguments must continue, they must be related more closely to the structural changes in the international economic order.

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