Hydro Politics: Suspension of Indus Water Treaty

NOTE4STUDENTS:

UPSC focuses on treaties like the Indus Water Treaty in two ways—historical context and contemporary disputes. Questions often require an analysis of ecological, economic, and geopolitical dimensions, as seen in the 2016 PYQ. The exam tests both conceptual understanding and current affairs relevance.  Many of you may study the broad topics(map, water sharing, dispute resolution etc) but fail to link them with sub-themes like “Water Management.”   You may tend to over-emphasize legal aspects but miss climate impact, infrastructure concerns, and trust deficits in Indo-Pak relations. This article provides a structured analysis of the dispute(including timeline) and a breakdown of  breakdown of procedural, environmental, and strategic challenges. It goes beyond factual reporting to highlight how international water laws shape treaty interpretations – a crucial but often ignored aspect in preparation.

PYQ ANCHORING & MICROTHEMES:

GS 1: Present an account of the Indus Water Treaty and examine its ecological, economic and political implications in the context of changing bilateral relations.[2016]

Microthemes: Water Management

Michel Lino, the Neutral Expert appointed by the World Bank, stated that he has the authority to resolve disagreements over hydroelectric projects under the 1960 Indus Water Treaty. India supported this, affirming that all technical issues fall under its jurisdiction.

THE CURRENT DISPUTE

India has suspended the Indus Water Treaty in response to the Pakistan-sponsored terrorist attack in Baisaran Valley of Pahalgam.

Timeline of Dispute Development

The following table outlines the timeline of the current disputes over hydroelectric projects under the Indus Water Treaty and the way it has evolved over the years:

Year/DateEvent
2015Pakistan raised objections to the projects and initially requested the appointment of a Neutral Expert.
2016Pakistan unilaterally withdrew its Neutral Expert request and directly sought adjudication by the CoA, bypassing the treaty’s prescribed process. India requested that the dispute be referred back to a Neutral Expert, adhering to the treaty’s provisions.
2022The World Bank facilitated the simultaneous functioning of both a Neutral Expert and a CoA. India rejected the CoA as “illegally constituted” and inconsistent with the treaty.
January 2023India formally issued a notice to Pakistan for reviewing and modifying the treaty under Article XII (3).
August 30, 2024India sent another formal notice for treaty review, but Pakistan did not respond despite receiving four reminders.
2024The World Bank-appointed Neutral Expert, Michel Lino, upheld India’s stance, affirmed his jurisdiction under Paragraph 7 of Annexure F of the IWT, and recognized the Neutral Expert as the competent authority to resolve the seven disputed issues.
2024India welcomed the ruling, criticized the legitimacy of the CoA, and reiterated that the treaty does not allow parallel proceedings. The Ministry of External Affairs reaffirmed that the Neutral Expert is the appropriate authority to resolve the technical disputes, including those concerning the Kishenganga and Ratle projects.
2025The Indus Water Treaty has been officially suspended on the aftermath of a terrorist attack in Baisaran Valley of Pahalgam.

ISSUES IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE TREATY

Water wars aren’t just a dystopian sci-fi concept—they’re playing out in real-time! The current dispute is just another chapter. The Indus Water Treaty, often cited as a symbol of cooperation, has faced several implementation hurdles over the years. These include:

Broad IssueSpecific ChallengeExample
Legal and Procedural DisputesDispute Over Project DesignsPakistan objected to the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects, citing treaty violations.
Parallel Legal MechanismsIn 2022, the World Bank allowed both a Neutral Expert and a Court of Arbitration (CoA) to function simultaneously, which India opposed.
Delays in Treaty Review and ModificationIndia issued formal notices in January 2023 and August 2024 for treaty modification, but Pakistan did not respond.
Environmental and Hydrological ChallengesClimate Change and Glacial MeltGlacier retreat in the Himalayas is altering the flow patterns of the Indus River system.
Water Pollution and Quality IssuesPakistan has raised concerns about pollution from Indian industries affecting Sutlej and Ravi Rivers.
Infrastructure and Water Management IssuesInfrastructure Development ConcernsPakistan has raised objections to multiple projects, including Pakal Dul, Lower Kalnai, and Bursar Dams.
Data Sharing and Transparency IssuesIn 2021, Pakistan accused India of delayed flood data sharing, leading to concerns about unanticipated water releases.
Geopolitical and Strategic TensionsPolitical and Strategic TensionsFollowing the Pulwama attack (2019), India considered stopping excess water flow to Pakistan.
Third-Party Mediation and External InfluenceThe appointment of a Neutral Expert and a CoA in 2022 led to India rejecting the CoA’s legitimacy.
Growing Water Demand and Resource StrainPopulation Growth and Rising DemandBoth India’s Punjab and Pakistan’s Punjab face acute water shortages due to rising agricultural needs.

IMPACT: Stalled Development and Rising Costs (e.g., Kishenganga and Ratle projects)

  1. Eroding Trust in Dispute Resolution (e.g., India rejecting CoA in 2022)
  2. Escalating Water Conflicts – Mistrust and lack of cooperation heighten the risk of diplomatic standoffs and potential treaty breakdown.
  3. Unaddressed Climate Vulnerabilities (e.g., Himalayan glacial melt)
  4. Data Gaps Fueling Misinformation (e.g., Pakistan’s 2021 flood data concerns)
  5. Recurring Infrastructure Disputes(e.g., Pakal Dul and Bursar Dams)
  6. Growing Resource Pressure. (e.g., water shortages in Punjab on both sides)

#BACK2BASICS: INDUS WATER TREATY

Indus Water Treaty: Overview and Key Provisions

The Indus Water Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960, governed the water-sharing arrangements between India and Pakistan over the Indus River system. The Treaty emerged as a solution to water disputes following the partition of India in 1947, which divided the river system between the two nations.


Key Provisions of the Indus Water Treaty

  1. Water Sharing Arrangement:
    • The six rivers in the Indus Basin were divided as follows:
      • Western Rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab were allocated to Pakistan for unrestricted use, except for specified uses by India (e.g., non-consumptive, agricultural, and domestic uses).
      • Eastern Rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej were allocated to India for unrestricted use.
    • Approximately 80% of the water flow was allocated to Pakistan and 20% to India.
  2. Specific Rights for India on Western Rivers:
    • Annexure C: Grants India rights for limited agricultural usage of waters from the western rivers.
    • Annexure D: Allows India to build ‘run-of-the-river’ hydropower projects (HEPs), which do not involve live water storage.
      • India must adhere to detailed design specifications.
      • Pakistan must be informed about project designs and can raise objections within three months.
  3. Storage Provisions: India is permitted minimal storage on the western rivers for conservation and flood control purposes.
  4. Permanent Indus Commission
    • A Permanent Indus Commission was established under the Treaty, comprising representatives from both nations.
    • Functions: Act as the first step in resolving water-related conflicts and Mandate at least one annual meeting.
  5. Dispute Resolution Mechanism: The IWT outlines a three-step graded dispute resolution mechanism:
    • Permanent Indus Commission/Inter-government Talks: Initial disputes should be resolved through the Commission or inter-government dialogues.
    • Neutral Expert (NE): Unresolved disputes may be referred to the World Bank, which can appoint a Neutral Expert to resolve specific issues.
    • Court of Arbitration (CoA): If disputes involve treaty interpretation or dissatisfaction with the NE’s decision, they may be referred to a Court of Arbitration.

Understanding International Water Laws

When countries share rivers, lakes, or other water sources, they need clear rules to avoid conflicts, make the best use of resources, and protect nature. That’s where international water laws come in—they create guidelines for cooperation and fair use of water.

Even though these laws mainly deal with agreements between countries, they also influence national laws. To make these laws work, countries need to officially accept (ratify) them and follow them within their own borders.

Key Agreements Governing Shared Waters

There are over 400 agreements worldwide that regulate how countries cooperate over shared water. Some of the most important ones include:

  1. Helsinki Rules, 1966
    1. Regulates how rivers and their connected groundwaters that cross national boundaries can be used.
    2. Includes principles for resolving issues through negotiations, arbitration, tribunals, or the International Court of Justice.
  2. Helsinki Convention, 1992
    1. Provides a legal framework for preventing and controlling water pollution across national borders.
    2. Requires parties to apply the precautionary principle.
  3. UN Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, 1997
    1. Also referred to as the UN Watercourses Convention, it is a flexible and overarching global legal framework that establishes basic standards and rules for cooperation between watercourse states on the use, management, and protection of international watercourses.
    2. Established two key principles: “equitable and reasonable use” and “the obligation not to cause significant harm” to neighbouring states.
  4. UNECE Water Convention (1992) – Originally meant for Europe, this treaty was later opened to all UN countries in 2016.

Core Principles of International Water Law

  1. Fair and Reasonable Use – Every country sharing a water source has equal rights and should use it without harming others. This ensures that both upstream and downstream nations get a fair share.
  2. No Significant Harm – Countries must avoid actions that negatively impact others, like polluting or diverting too much water.
  3. Cooperation & Communication – Countries must notify and consult each other before making changes that could affect shared waters. This helps prevent disputes.
  4. Protecting the Environment – Water laws emphasize keeping ecosystems healthy by preventing pollution and maintaining the balance of natural water systems.

By following these principles, countries can share water peacefully, avoid disputes, and ensure long-term sustainability.

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