Trade Sector Updates – Falling Exports, TIES, MEIS, Foreign Trade Policy, etc.

Trade deals will bring opportunities for Indian agriculture. But there will also be challenges

Why in the News?

India achieved record exports of $820.93 billion in FY25, rising 6.5%, but faced growing trade deficits as agriculture lagged, growing only 2.3% yearly despite employing half the workforce.

What was India’s trade performance in FY25?

  • Total exports (goods + services) reached $820.93 billion, marking a 6.5% increase over FY24.
  • Merchandise exports contributed $437.42 billion (53% of total exports), while services exports contributed $383.51 billion (47%).
  • Imports grew by 6.85% to $915.19 billion, with merchandise imports at $720.24 billion (79%) and services imports at $194.95 billion (21%).
  • The trade deficit widened to $94.26 billion from $78.39 billion in FY24.
  • The trade-to-GDP ratio stood at a robust 41.4%, reflecting India’s deeper integration with global markets.

 

 

How will Trade deals bring opportunities for Indian agriculture? 

  • Reduced Dependence on Price-Sensitive Markets: Trade deals open new and stable markets for Indian agricultural exports, reducing over-reliance on traditional destinations and shielding against price volatility. Eg: The India-UK FTA could boost exports of premium products like Basmati rice, tea, spices, and processed foods to the UK, which is a high-value market with established Indian diaspora demand.
  • Boost Processed Agricultural Exports: Trade agreements typically reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers, enhancing competitiveness of value-added and processed agri-products, which fetch higher margins. Eg: Under the India-UK FTA, processed foods and marine products can gain better access, enhancing India’s earnings from exports of ready-to-eat meals, seafood, and organic food products.

Why did agri-export growth slow down over the last decade?

  • Frequent Export Bans and Restrictions: Domestic policies often imposed export bans or curbs on essential commodities like rice, wheat, sugar, and onions to control inflation, disrupting export momentum. Eg: Restrictions on broken rice exports and duties on Basmati rice led to a 27% fall in rice export volume in FY24.
  • Global Price Fluctuations: Agri-exports are heavily influenced by global price trends — when world prices fall, Indian exports lose competitiveness and earnings. Eg: Rice export values declined despite volume recovering after lifting restrictions, due to price volatility.
  • Declining Productivity and Competitiveness: Lack of investment in research, technology, and resource-efficient farming practices lowered growth compared to earlier periods of rapid expansion. Eg: Average annual agri-export growth dropped from 20% (FY05–14) to just 2.3% (FY15–25).

How did rice export restrictions impact trade and prices?

  • Export Volume Decline: Restrictions like export bans, duties, and minimum export prices caused a sharp drop in rice export volumes. Eg: Rice exports fell by 27% from 22.3 million metric tonnes (MMT) in FY23 to 16.3 MMT in FY24.
  • Global Price Spike: Reduced supply due to restrictions pushed up global rice prices, affecting international markets. Eg: Imposition of export duties and minimum export price (MEP) on Basmati rice led to a spike in global rice prices.
  • Value Impact Less Severe than Volume: Despite the fall in export volume, the value of exports dropped only slightly because of higher prices. Eg: Rice export value fell by only 6% even as volumes dropped 27%, showing price effects cushioned revenue loss.

What are the environmental risks of rice exports?

  • Water Resource Depletion: Rice cultivation requires large amounts of water, which can strain local water supplies. Eg: In regions like Punjab, intensive rice farming has led to groundwater depletion and lowered water tables.
  • Methane Emissions: Flooded rice paddies emit methane, a potent greenhouse gas contributing to climate change. Eg: In Southeast Asia, vast rice fields are significant sources of methane emissions impacting global warming.
  • Soil Degradation and Pollution: Continuous rice farming with chemical fertilizers and pesticides can degrade soil quality and contaminate water bodies. Eg: Excessive use of agrochemicals in rice fields in Vietnam has caused soil salinization and river pollution.

What is the status of edible oil imports? 

  • 2022–23 (November–October): India imported approximately 16.5 million metric tons of edible oils, marking a 17% increase from the previous year. This surge was driven by lower import duties on key oils like palm, soybean, and sunflower oils.
  • 2023–24 (November–October): Imports declined by about 3.1%, totaling 15.96 million metric tons, due to higher domestic oilseed production and reduced demand amid rising global prices.

The recent reduction in edible oil imports is very small. So, we need to take more steps to further cut down these imports.

How can India cut edible oil import dependence?

  • Increase Domestic Oilseed Production: Boost cultivation of oilseeds like groundnut, mustard, sunflower, and soybean through better seeds, irrigation, and farmer support. Eg: The “Oilseeds Production Mission” aims to raise domestic output and reduce imports.
  • Promote Sustainable Farming Practices: Encourage crop diversification and intercropping to improve yields and soil health, reducing reliance on imported oils. Eg: States like Madhya Pradesh have successfully adopted intercropping mustard with wheat to increase oilseed production.
  • Develop Processing Infrastructure: Invest in modern oil extraction and refining units to enhance local processing capacity and reduce post-harvest losses. Eg: Setting up mega oilseed processing clusters in regions like Rajasthan to strengthen the supply chain and self-reliance.

Way forward: 

  • Strengthen Oilseed Ecosystem: Enhance productivity through quality seeds, MSP support, and targeted R&D under national missions like the Oil Palm and Oilseeds Mission.
  • Build Agro-Processing Capacity: Invest in decentralized, modern oilseed processing units to reduce wastage, improve value addition, and boost farmer income.

Mains PYQ:

[UPSC 2023] What are the direct and indirect subsidies provided to farm sector in India? Discuss the issues raised by the World Trade Organization(WTO) in relation to agricultural subsidies.

Linkage: Agricultural subsidies are a key area of contention in international trade negotiations, particularly within the WTO. Trade deals often involve discussions around reducing or reforming subsidies, which presents both a challenge (potential reduction of support for farmers) and an opportunity (creating a more level playing field or accessing new markets if other countries also reduce subsidies) for Indian agriculture.

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