Why in the News?

India’s Russia policy gained attention after Donald Trump claimed India had agreed to stop buying Russian oil. The statement contrasts with India’s consistent position that its energy purchases are guided by national interest. The issue is significant because:

1. India sharply increased Russian crude imports after February 2022.
2. Russia became a major supplier despite Western sanctions.
3. The US publicly questioned India’s oil strategy.
4. The matter intersects energy security and defence dependence.

The episode marks a diplomatic inflection point. India’s balancing strategy is now under public scrutiny at the highest political level in the United States.

How Have India-Russia Relations Historically Evolved?

1. Cold War Strategic Alignment: India deepened defence cooperation with the Soviet Union in the 1970s when the US tilted towards Pakistan.
2. Defence Industrial Dependence: India became dependent on Soviet-origin military equipment.
3. Post-1991 Continuity: After the Soviet Union’s collapse, defence cooperation continued despite Russia’s internal transition.
4. High Defence Exposure: Around 60-70% of India’s military platforms are of Russian origin.

What Changed After the Ukraine War?

1. Western Sanctions Regime: The US and European countries imposed sanctions on Moscow after February 2022.
2. Discounted Russian Crude: Russia offered oil at reduced prices.
3. Import Surge: India’s Russian oil imports rose from about 2% of total imports before February 2022 to nearly 35% thereafter.
4. Trade Expansion: Bilateral trade increased significantly due to energy flows.
5. Energy Inflation Cushion: Discounted crude helped manage inflationary pressures.

What Is the Oil Question and Why Is It Sensitive?

1. Energy Security Imperative: India imports a large share of its crude oil requirements.
2. Price Sensitivity: Crude price volatility directly affects inflation and fiscal stability.
3. Government Position: India maintained that purchases were not politically motivated but commercially driven.
4. Strategic Signalling: Trump’s claim introduced political overtones to an economic decision.

How Has Russia Responded?

1. High-Level Engagement: President Putin maintained communication with Indian leadership.
2. Understanding India’s Position: Russia reportedly acknowledged India’s balancing strategy.
3. Continuation of Defence Ties: Defence cooperation remains intact.
4. Expectation of Stability: Moscow expects India to continue engagement despite Western pressure.

Conclusion

India’s Russia policy reflects continuity in strategic pragmatism. Energy imperatives and defence dependencies constrain abrupt shifts. The episode highlights the structural challenges of navigating a polarized global order while preserving national interest.

PYQ Relevance

[UPSC 2020] What is the significance of Indo-US defence deals over Indo-Russian defence deals? Discuss with reference to stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

Linkage: The question examines India’s strategic balancing between major powers. The Russia oil issue and defence ties show how India is balancing between the US and Russia. This balancing directly affects Indo-Pacific stability and India’s strategic autonomy.

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