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Foreign Policy Watch: India-Afghanistan

Taliban & terror: How Pakistan came to declare ‘open war’ on Afghanistan

Explained | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

Why in the News?

Pakistan launched cross-border airstrikes in Afghanistan’s Khost and Paktika provinces after a surge in Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attacks that killed nearly 274 people in recent months. The Afghan Taliban retaliated, marking one of the most direct military confrontations between the two since 2021 and signaling a breakdown of post-Taliban counter-terror coordination.

What explains the recent escalation between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban?

  1. TTP Resurgence: Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan intensified attacks inside Pakistan; 274 fatalities reported in recent months.
  2. Safe Haven Allegations: Pakistan alleges TTP operates from Afghan soil under Taliban protection.
  3. Retaliatory Airstrikes: Pakistan conducted strikes in Khost and Paktika targeting alleged militant camps.
  4. Taliban Response: Afghan forces retaliated with mortar shelling across the border.
  5. Civilian Casualties: Reports indicate non-combatant deaths, escalating humanitarian concerns.

How does the Durand Line dispute complicate the conflict?

  1. Colonial Legacy: The 2,640-km Durand Line was drawn in 1893 between British India and Afghanistan.
  2. Non-Recognition: Successive Afghan regimes have questioned the legitimacy of the border.
  3. Border Clashes: Frequent skirmishes occur along contested stretches.
  4. Unregulated Movement: Porous terrain facilitates militant infiltration and smuggling networks.

Durand Line

Historical Background

  1. Establishment (1893): The line was drawn by Sir Mortimer Durand, a British diplomat, and Afghan Emir Abdur Rahman Khan
  2. Purpose: It was intended to fix the limits of their respective control and serve as a buffer zone against Russian expansionism toward British India
  3. Inheritance (1947): Following the partition of British India, Pakistan inherited the line as its western border. While Pakistan and most of the international community recognise it, Afghanistan has consistently refused to do so

The Dispute & Conflict

  1. Ethnic Division: The line cuts through the Pashtun and Baloch tribal heartlands, dividing families and communities across two nations.
  2. Afghan Position: Successive Afghan governments, including the current Taliban administration, reject the border as a “colonial relic” imposed under duress. They claim territories extending as far as the Indus River.
  3. Pakistani Position: Pakistan maintains the line is a legally binding international boundary and has fenced approximately 98% of it since 2017 to curb militancy and smuggling

Has Pakistan’s ‘Strategic Depth’ doctrine backfired?

  1. Strategic Depth Concept: Pakistan historically viewed Afghanistan as a buffer against India.
  2. Taliban Support: Islamabad extended diplomatic and logistical backing to Taliban factions.
  3. Blowback Effect: TTP, ideologically aligned with Afghan Taliban, now targets Pakistan.
  4. Policy Contradiction: Friendly regime in Kabul has not curbed anti-Pakistan militants.

Pakistan’s “Strategic Depth” doctrine:

  1. It is a long-standing, largely failed, security policy designed to counter India by:
    1. controlling Afghanistan
    2. providing a fallback area during conflict
    3. preventing a two-front threat. 
  2. Developed in the 1980s by Gen. Mirza Aslam Beg, sought to use the Taliban as proxies to create a pro-Pakistan, anti-India regime in Kabul.

Key aspects of this doctrine included:

  1. Military Fallback: Creating a rear area beyond the Durand Line to regroup if India invaded.
  2. Control over Kabul: Installing a friendly government in Afghanistan to prevent Indian influence and negate the “encirclement” of Pakistan.
  3. Proxy Warfare: Nurturing the Taliban and Haqqani network to manage the Pashtun border region and use Afghan soil to project power against India. 

Failure and Consequences

  1. By 2026, the doctrine is seen as a strategic liability rather than a benefit. 
  2. The Taliban’s return to power in 2021 did not result in a subservient state, and Pakistan faces severe cross-border militant blowback from the Taliban. 
  3. The policy has led to increased domestic insecurity, with Afghanistan serving as a “strategic trap” for Pakistan instead of a “strategic depth.

How does this episode reflect challenges in counter-terror strategy?

  1. Non-State Actor Challenge: TTP operates across borders, complicating traditional military responses.
  2. Intelligence Gaps: Weak coordination limits actionable counter-terror outcomes.
  3. Unilateral Force Doctrine: Cross-border strikes risk escalation without durable resolution.
  4. Humanitarian Risk: Civilian harm undermines legitimacy of counter-terror operations.

What are the implications for India and the South Asian region?

  1. Militant Spillover: Escalation risks strengthening transnational jihadist networks.
  2. Regional Instability: Prolonged conflict weakens South Asian security architecture and undermines SAARC-level cooperation.
  3. Refugee Pressure: Conflict may trigger cross-border displacement.
  4. Terror Ecosystem Risk: Fragmented militant networks may redirect focus toward India or other neighboring states.
  5. Central Asian Connectivity Risk: Instability threatens regional trade corridors.
  6. Diplomatic Leverage: India may recalibrate engagement with regional partners amid shifting Afghanistan dynamics.

Conclusion

The Pakistan-Afghanistan escalation reflects the limits of proxy-based security doctrines and the persistence of cross-border militant ecosystems in South Asia. Tactical airstrikes may offer short-term signalling but fail to address structural drivers such as porous borders, ideological linkages, and weak counter-terror coordination. Durable stability requires institutionalized border management, credible action against non-state actors, and regional security dialogue to prevent further destabilization of the South Asian strategic landscape.

PYQ Relevance

[UPSC 2024] India has a long and troubled border with China and Pakistan fraught with contentious issues. Examine the conflicting issues and security challenges along the border. Also give out the development being undertaken in these areas under the Border Area Development Programme (BADP) and Border Infrastructure and Management (BIM) Scheme.

Linkage: The Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict shows problems of cross-border terrorism and porous borders. This question helps compare India’s border security system with instability along the Durand Line.

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