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GS Paper: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

  • Northeast India and The Troika of Bangladesh, India and Japan

    Northeast

    Central Idea

    • The third India-Japan Intellectual Dialogue hosted by the Asian Confluence (ASCON), Tripura, was an ideal opportunity to assess the evolving thinking of experts and policymakers. It showed that the current decade may produce path-breaking changes in the northeast, bringing the troika of Bangladesh, India and Japan closer.

    Significant changes in the North East India

    • The region comprising India’s eight northeastern States (Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura and Sikkim) is undergoing dramatic change.
    • It has overcome several (but not all) security challenges and is now heading toward economic development.
    • Political changes have been helpful. So is the extensive web of linkages with neighbouring Bangladesh. Besides, Japan has emerged as a significant development partner for both India and Bangladesh.

    Japan’s historical ties with the North Eastern region of India

    • Cultural ties: There are deep cultural ties between the North Eastern region of India and Japan, with Buddhism being a common thread that binds the two regions.
    • World War II: The North Eastern region of India played a crucial role in World War II, with the Battle of Imphal and Kohima considered to be turning points in the war. The Japanese army had advanced into the region and fought fiercely against the Allied forces.
    • Post-Independence: After India gained independence, the North Eastern region remained largely isolated from the rest of the country. However, in the 1950s, the Indian government started building roads and infrastructure to connect the region with the rest of the country. Japan also played a role in the region’s development, with its assistance in building the Dimapur-Imphal highway.
    • Economic ties: In recent years, there has been a growing focus on economic ties between the North Eastern region of India and Japan. Japan has been investing in infrastructure projects in the region, such as the Guwahati water supply project and the Northeast Road Network Connectivity Improvement Project.
    • Connectivity: Improved connectivity between the North Eastern region of India and Japan is seen as a key factor in strengthening the historical ties between the two regions. There have been talks of establishing a direct flight between Guwahati and Tokyo to enhance connectivity.

    What is Asian Confluence?

    • The Asian Confluence is a think tank and cultural centre based in Shillong, Meghalaya, India.
    • It was established in 2012 with the aim of promoting and strengthening cultural and economic ties between the Northeastern region of India and the countries of Southeast Asia.
    • The centre seeks to facilitate dialogue and collaboration between academics, policymakers, entrepreneurs, and civil society groups from across the region, with a particular focus on issues related to connectivity, trade, investment, and tourism.
    • The Asian Confluence hosts a variety of events, including conferences, seminars, workshops, and cultural programs, that bring together experts and stakeholders from different fields to discuss and explore opportunities for collaboration and cooperation.
    • In addition to promoting economic and cultural ties, the centre also seeks to foster a sense of community and shared identity among the diverse peoples of the region.

    Opportunities for Northeast India

    • Matarbari Deep Sea Port: The development of the Matarbari Deep Sea Port in Bangladesh, with Japanese assistance, is expected to be a game changer for the region. To be optimally viable, the port will have to cater to the needs of Bangladesh and India’s northeast, serving a population of 220 million.
    • Competitive advantage: The creation of regional industrial value chains and rapid industrialization in sectors where the northeast has a competitive advantage will be crucial to ensure that the new connectivity links are fully utilized and productive.
    • Natural resources and strategic location: The region’s natural resources and strategic location make it an attractive destination for investors in diverse sectors such as agro-processing, man-made fibers, handicrafts, assembly of two-wheelers, mobile phones, and pharmaceuticals.

    What are the Challenges?

    • Insufficient investment: Japan as a single investor in the northeast is unworkable. Indian companies must also invest, and India needs to ease restrictions on the flow of investments from Bangladesh.
    • Security challenges: While the northeastern region has overcome several security challenges, not all of them have been addressed.
    • Infrastructure connectivity: While Bangladesh and India have made progress in restoring pre-1965 infrastructure connectivity, other countries in the region need to reciprocate with similar connectivity initiatives.
    • Environmental concerns: As industrialization and development take place, there is a need to ensure that environmental concerns are addressed and sustainability is prioritized.
    • Lack of attention to BIMSTEC: When issues of regional cooperation and integration are discussed, scant attention seems to be paid to the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), which is self-defeating.

    What measures should be taken?

    • Limited policy convergence: Policy convergence must be expanded to address challenges in the region.
    • Need for closer linkages: The three governments of Bangladesh, India, and Japan should forge closer linkages of economic cooperation.
    • Investment: Indian companies need to invest in the northeast along with Japanese companies. India should also ease restrictions on the flow of investments from Bangladesh.
    • Infrastructure connectivity: Bangladesh facilitated much connectivity with India and now needs reciprocity from other countries, particularly India, so that it is better connected with other neighbors, including Nepal, Bhutan, and Myanmar.
    • Need for leadership: The goal of connecting a large part of South Asia with Southeast Asia requires an astute pilot. This leadership can come from the triad of Bangladesh, India, and Japan.

    Conclusion

    • The triad of Bangladesh, India, and Japan (BIJ) can provide astute leadership in connecting a large part of South Asia with Southeast Asia. A BIJ Forum should be launched at the level of Foreign Ministers, a move that will be welcomed in the northeast. The three governments should forge closer linkages of economic cooperation.

    Mains Question

    Q. Highlight the role and the potential of North east India for bringing in the troika of Bangladesh, India and Japan closer?

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  • China’s Mediation Brings Saudi Arabia and Iran to the Table: An Analysis

    China

    Central Idea

    • China’s mediation efforts have resulted in the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which is significant in terms of regional stability and the changing dynamics of international diplomacy.

    What is Mediation?

    • Mediation is a deliberate attempt to reconcile differences between two parties, and it plays a significant role in international relations. In this op-ed, we will discuss China’s recent mediation efforts that led to the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

    Background

    • Conflicts in GCC: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has been facing several tensions and conflicts since 2016, mainly related to Yemen and Syria. However, bilateral efforts have been underway since early 2016 to ease these tensions.
    • Bilateral efforts: Talks were held in Baghdad and during Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to China in February 2023. The Emir of Kuwait and the Sultan of Oman initiated steps that were responded to by Iran. All concerned were worried about the attacks on shipping and energy facilities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates.

    China’s Mediation Efforts

    • Resumption of diplomatic relations: In a joint statement on March 10, 2023, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and China announced that an agreement has been reached between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran covering a resumption of diplomatic relations between them and a re-opening of their embassies and missions within a period not exceeding two months.
    • Terms of the agreement: The agreement affirmed their respect for the sovereignty of states, non-interference in the internal affairs of states, and said the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of both countries shall meet to implement this, arrange for the return of their Ambassadors, and discuss means of enhancing bilateral relations.
    • For instance; One agreement and seven achievements: Iranian National Security Adviser Ali Shamkhani lent credibility to the accord. A commentary in an Iranian newspaper on March 11 depicted the event as ‘One agreement and seven achievements’; it listed the latter as
    1. Tehran’s willingness to engage in dialogue;
    2. Failure of the U.S.’s effort to isolate Iran;
    3. Strengthening of the alliance of Islamic Countries;
    4. Failure of Israeli efforts against this agreement;
    5. Failure of U.S. effort to show the Iranian public that it has no choice but to agree to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with America;
    6. Beijing’s successful entry in West Asian relations, and
    7. Failure of dreams of regime change.

    American and Israeli Reactions

    • US; Change in terms of reference in international diplomacy For US:S. reactions, apart from unconcealed surprise, reflected the change in terms of reference in international diplomacy.
    • Israel; a fatal blow to a regional coalition against Iran: Equally surprised was Israel, the other major player in the region, which saw it as a fatal blow to the effort to build a regional coalition against Iran.

    The Indian stand

    • India’s reaction to this development has been restrained: Apart from historical linkages, the region is in India’s proximate neighbourhood and within its security parameters.
    • Trade a priority: It is the principal source of hydrocarbon imports, and increasingly of investments. It is also an important destination for manpower exports apart from being a major trading partner including projects.
    • Policy of avoiding interference in bilateral and regional disputes: The official policy has focused on bilateral relations and avoidance of involvement in bilateral and regional disputes.
    • Refrained from speculative ventures: Given these priorities, India has consciously refrained from speculative ventures in alternate security architectures apart from supporting cooperative security and freedom of waterways and of navigation.

    Conclusion

    • China’s mediation efforts have played a significant role in bringing Saudi Arabia and Iran to the negotiating table. This development is significant in terms of regional stability and the changing dynamics of international diplomacy. India’s response to this development has been restrained, focusing on bilateral relations and avoiding involvement in regional disputes. The region should not be viewed in competition with China, and India should not consider itself a surrogate for those who have been outplayed in power games.

    Mains Question

    Q. Analyze the significance of China’s mediation efforts in bringing Saudi Arabia and Iran to the negotiating table and its impact on international diplomacy. Evaluate India’s response to this development.

  • India signs MoU with World Food Programme for sending wheat to Afghanistan

    India signed an MoU with the World Food Programme (WFP) to send 10,000 metric tonnes of wheat to Afghanistan.

    Reason: Utilizing WFP supply chain

    • The MoU signed between India and the World Food Programme (WFP) paves the way for sending 10,000 metric tonnes of wheat for the people of Afghanistan.
    • The WFP has a massive supply chain and logistics infrastructure in Afghanistan that could help in ensuring that the food supply reaches those who need it the most and no one is excluded.
    • The MoU also ensures that the assistance is coordinated and delivered in an effective and efficient manner, and that it reaches the most vulnerable sections of the Afghan population.

    What is World Food Programme (WFP)?

    • The WFP is a humanitarian organization that is part of the United Nations system.
    • It was established in 1961 and has its headquarters in Rome, Italy.
    • The WFP is the world’s largest humanitarian agency focused on combating hunger and promoting food security.

    Scope of Operations

    • The WFP operates in more than 80 countries, delivering food assistance to people in need.
    • WFP programs reach over 97 million people each year, including children, pregnant and nursing women, and people affected by emergencies, such as conflict or natural disasters.
    • It provides a range of food assistance, including in-kind food assistance, cash and voucher-based transfers, and specialized nutritious foods.

    Funding and Support

    • The WFP is funded entirely by voluntary contributions from governments, companies, and individuals.
    • The organization works closely with donors to ensure that funding is used effectively and efficiently, and to ensure that it is directed to the areas and programs where it is needed most.

    Governance and Structure

    • The WFP is governed by an Executive Board, which is composed of 36 member states that are elected to three-year terms.
    • The Executive Board provides oversight and strategic direction to the organization, and approves the WFP’s programs and budgets.
    • The WFP is headed by an Executive Director, who is appointed by the Secretary-General of the United Nations.
    • The organization has more than 17,000 staff worldwide, including professionals in fields such as logistics, nutrition, and food security.

    Impact and Achievements

    • Over the years, the WFP has made significant contributions to addressing hunger and promoting food security worldwide.
    • The organization has responded to numerous emergencies, providing food assistance to millions of people affected by conflict, natural disasters, and other crises.
    • The WFP has also supported programs that help people access the food they need to lead healthy, active lives, and that promote sustainable agriculture and development.
    • The WFP has been recognized for its efforts, receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in 2020 in recognition of its contributions to combatting hunger and promoting peace.

     

     

  • China’s Renaming Exercise Undermines International Law

    Central Idea

    • China’s recent move to rename 11 places in Arunachal Pradesh and standardise those names on the basis of a map is an exercise of the Chinese perspective of international law, which goes against the international law widely adhered to by most members of the United Nations.

    Historical Basis of China’s Claims

    • China’s claims over disputed territories, such as the South China Sea, are often based on historical records, maps, and cultural relics.
    • China argues that these territories had been its territory since the Song Dynasty and, therefore, should be considered part of its sovereign territory. However, this approach is not recognized under international law and undermines the basis of the international legal system.

    Chinese perspective of international law

    • Jurisdiction rights: The Chinese perspective of international law is based on its strong stress on the principle of sovereignty. According to this view, sovereign states have an inalienable right to exercise jurisdiction over their territories and their people without interference from other states.
    • Historic rights: China combines its vision of sovereignty with the historic right to exercise jurisdiction over those territories or maritime areas as well, which were once ruled by a Chinese dynasty in the mediaeval or ancient era.
    • Undermines international legal system: The historic right approach makes China undermine the basis of the international legal system grounded in the sovereign equality of states and the general rules of international law.

    Contravention of international courts and tribunals

    • Contravenes the decisions of international courts and tribunals: China’s attempt to rename 11 disputed locations on historical and administrative bases contravenes the decisions of international courts and tribunals.
    • No convincing proofs: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) considers direct evidence of possession and the actual exercise of sovereignty as more convincing proof of title to a territory than indirect presumption from events in history.
    • Against the principle of uti possidetis juris: China’s renaming exercise goes against the principle of uti possidetis juris, which is the principle that the boundaries of newly independent states should follow those of the previous colonies.
    • Help of cartographic materials: China tries to buttress its territorial and maritime claims with the support of maps, but cartographic materials do not have any legal value by themselves. They constitute extrinsic evidence of varying reliability that might, depending on the circumstances, be used together with other evidence to establish a fact.

    What is the principle of uti possidetis juris?

    • The principle of uti possidetis juris is a Latin phrase that means as you possess under law.
    • It is a principle of international law that was developed in the context of decolonization. The principle holds that newly independent states should inherit the territorial boundaries that existed at the time of their independence.
    • The idea is that the territorial integrity of a new state should be protected and that the boundaries of the state should not be subject to change without the consent of the state.
    • The principle of uti possidetis juris is meant to prevent disputes over territorial boundaries that could lead to instability or conflict.

    Implications of China’s actions

    • China’s actions in Arunachal Pradesh undermine the international legal system based on the sovereign equality of states and the general rules of international law.
    • China’s historic right approach to sovereignty over territories and maritime areas is a cause for concern for other countries with territorial disputes with China.
    • China’s use of maps to support its territorial and maritime claims is not a legally valid argument and undermines the legal basis for resolving territorial disputes.

    Conclusion

    • China’s attempt to rename disputed territories in Arunachal Pradesh goes against established principles of international law and undermines the sovereign equality of states. The use of historical claims and maps to support territorial and maritime claims is not recognized in international law. This renaming exercise is likely to further strain India-China relations and impact regional stability. It is essential to uphold the principles of international law to ensure the independence and stability of new states and prevent challenges to territorial boundaries.

    Mains Question

    Q. What is the principle of uti possidetis juris? How does China’s attempt to rename territories in Arunachal Pradesh contravene the decisions of international courts and tribunals?

  • Arunachal Pradesh: China’s Cartographic Deception

    Central Idea

    • The Chinese leadership has been using cartographic deception as a weapon to violate the sovereign national boundaries of its neighbours, and India has been a victim of this deception since Independence. The recent rechristening of villages and areas in Arunachal Pradesh is another example of China’s cartographic deception, and India must remain vigilant against such tactics.

    Background: India-China relations

    1. Historical context:
    • India has been a victim of China’s deception since its independence.
    • Mao’s Red Army sent messages to Indian Communists promising support in their violent liberation struggle to overthrow the government of Jawaharlal Nehru.
    • In the early 1950s, China started staking claims to large parts of Indian territory.
    1. Cartographic deception used by China:
    • Cartographic deception is integral to the Chinese leadership’s machinations.
    • China has been indulging in cartographic deception by staking claims to large parts of Indian territory.
    • The recent rechristening of villages and areas in Arunachal Pradesh by the Chinese cabinet is another example of that cartographic deception.
    • Despite President Xi Jinping’s claims of standing guard over the world order based on international law, China continues to use cartography as a weapon to violate sovereign national boundaries of its neighbours.

    How cartography is used as a weapon?

    • Deliberate manipulation of maps: The term use of cartography as a weapon refers to the deliberate manipulation of maps for political and strategic purposes. This can involve drawing new borders or redefining existing borders, claiming territory that was previously not contested or that belonged to another country, and renaming places to support these claims.
    • Psychological warfare technique: It is often accompanied by historical revisionism, propaganda, and the creation of artificial historical links to justify these claims. This approach can be seen as a form of psychological warfare, intended to create confusion, weaken the opponent’s resolve, and undermine its legitimacy in the eyes of the international community.

    Historical background of Arunachal Pradesh

    • No contact with China: Historically, Arunachal Pradesh had no contact with China, and there was never any Chinese presence there.
    • Shimla Agreement: The McMahon Line, which became the international boundary between India and Tibet through the Shimla Agreement between the British and Tibetan governments in 1914, clearly puts Tawang, which fell south of the McMahon Line, out of Tibetan administrative control.
    • Claims over Tawang: Attempts by pro-China historians to claim that parts of Western Arunachal Pradesh like Tawang were under the rule of Lhasa before 1950 are negated by historical records.

    Chinese invasion of Arunachal Pradesh in 1962

    • During the Chinese invasion of Arunachal Pradesh in 1962, they were extra-cordial with the locals and made special efforts to convince them about the greater racial affinity between them.
    • However, despite all the deceptive maneuvers during the 49-day-long occupation, the Chinese could not win over the hearts and minds of the people of NEFA.

    Conclusion

    • India must remain vigilant against China’s cartographic deception, as it was through a similar deception in 1962 that China annexed territory. India has dismissed the recent rechristening exercise by China, and rightly emphasised that Arunachal Pradesh is, has been, and will always be an integral and inalienable part of India. India must continue to stand firm against China’s attempts to use cartography as a weapon to violate its sovereign national boundaries.

  • India-Bhutan Relationship Built On Faith and Mutual trust

    Relationship

    Central Idea

    • India-Bhutan’s exemplary relationship has been a key factor in ensuring the stability and security of the region. The recent visit of Bhutan King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck to India was focused on enhancing the bilateral relationship between the two countries. However, the unspoken part of the visit was the Bhutan-China boundary talks, which have gained momentum in recent times.

    Exemplary India-Bhutan Relationship

    • Special and strategic relationship: India and Bhutan share a special and strategic relationship with a border of over 600 km. The bond has been strengthened since India’s independence, and it has been a buffer between China and India.
    • India is Bhutan’s largest development partner: The relationship is not limited to rhetoric but extends to an institutional and economic framework. India is Bhutan’s largest development partner, and Bhutan is India’s biggest trade partner in the region.
    • Hydroelectricity, a crucial factor: Hydroelectricity has become the biggest revenue earner of Bhutan, and India buys power generated in Bhutan. It makes Bhutan the country with the highest per capita income in South Asia today.
    • Historical and theological relations: Bhutan is a Buddhist theocracy, monarchy, and modern state. The relationship between India and Bhutan is special from a historical, theological, strategic, and economic perspective.

    Bhutan-China Boundary Talks

    • Considerable progress but no decision yet: Before the King’s visit to India, Bhutanese Prime Minister Lotay Tshering had said in an interview that Bhutan and China have made considerable progress on demarcating border lines. Bhutan has been having talks with China on the boundary question for years, and there has been no decision yet.
    • There will be adjustment of territory: Bhutan and China are adopting a modern methodology to draw boundary lines on the ground, and there may be some adjustment of territory as a result of that.
    • India’s strategic interests: India’s strategic interests are involved in the boundary talks between Bhutan and China. China has been seeking a toehold in Bhutan for decades. Bhutan is fully conscious of India’s strategic needs.
    • Trijunction: Where Bhutan decides its boundary with China (to the west) is of exceptional relevance to India because that is a trijunction of the three countries.

    Relationship

    India’s Strategic Interests

    • No compromise on national security: India will not talk about Bhutan-China negotiations publicly; however, when it comes to India’s national security, there will be no compromise.
    • Siliguri corridor: Doklam plateau overlooks the Chumbi Valley, which overlooks the chicken’s neck (Siliguri corridor). India says this not because Bhutan is threatening its cooperation with India on this front, but to send a message to China that we will draw a line here in conformity with our national interest.

    Why India needs Bhutan?

    • Strategic location: Bhutan is strategically located between India and China, which makes it an important buffer state for India. Bhutan’s strategic location ensures India’s security and helps in maintaining regional stability.
    • Water resources: Bhutan is the source of several rivers that flow into India, including the Brahmaputra, the Sankosh, and the Manas. India needs access to these rivers for irrigation, hydroelectric power generation, and other purposes. India has helped Bhutan in developing its hydropower potential and has signed several agreements for the purchase of hydropower from Bhutan.
    • Trade and economic ties: India is Bhutan’s largest trading partner, and Bhutan relies heavily on India for its imports and exports. India provides Bhutan with various economic assistance and has helped Bhutan in its development process.
    • Cultural and historical ties: India and Bhutan share a common cultural heritage and have historical ties dating back centuries. India has helped Bhutan preserve its cultural heritage and has supported Bhutan in its efforts to promote tourism.

    Why Bhutan needs India?

    • Security: Bhutan does not have a large army, and India provides security assistance to Bhutan. India has helped Bhutan in building its border infrastructure and has helped in the development of the Bhutanese army.
    • Economic ties: India is Bhutan’s largest trading partner, and Bhutan relies heavily on India for its imports and exports. India provides economic assistance to Bhutan, and Indian companies have invested in various sectors in Bhutan.
    • Infrastructure: India has helped Bhutan in building its infrastructure, including roads, airports, and telecommunication networks. India has also helped Bhutan in developing its hydropower potential, and several hydropower projects in Bhutan have been built with Indian assistance.
    • Education and healthcare: India has helped Bhutan in the field of education and healthcare. Many Bhutanese students study in India, and India provides scholarships and grants to Bhutanese students. India has also helped Bhutan in building hospitals and providing medical assistance.
    • Cultural and historical ties: Bhutan and India share a common cultural heritage and have historical ties dating back centuries. India has helped Bhutan in preserving its cultural heritage and has supported Bhutan in its efforts to promote tourism.

    Future of India-Bhutan Relations

    • The Bhutan-India relationship has survived because of spiritual underpinnings, geography, economy, and connectivity, all of which strengthen the relationship.
    • India and Bhutan have survived mainly because it was built on mutual trust, which means Bhutan has equally driven the relationship. India should pursue this relationship with trust and complete faith.
    • India must reach out to the new generation in Bhutan, which is being influenced by social media negativity and wrong information about India.

    Conclusion

    • The India-Bhutan relationship has been a key factor in ensuring the stability and security of the region. The relationship between the two countries has been built on mutual trust and has been strengthened by an institutional and economic framework. India’s strategic interests are involved in the boundary talks between Bhutan and China. India should pursue the relationship with trust and complete faith and should reach out to the new generation in Bhutan.

    Mains Question

    Q. Highlight the significance of the India-Bhutan relationship in ensuring regional stability and security? Discuss why India and Bhutan need each other?

  • China issues ‘official’ names for some places in Arunachal Pradesh

    china

    Central idea: The Chinese government has announced it would “standardize” the names of 11 places in Arunachal Pradesh.

    MEA clarification

    • The Ministry of External Affairs has dismissed the Chinese “invention”.
    • Arunachal Pradesh has always been, and will always be, an integral part of India, said MEA.

    Why is China giving names to places that are in India?

    • China claims some 90,000 sq km of Arunachal Pradesh as its territory.
    • It calls the area “Zangnan” in the Chinese language and makes repeated references to “South Tibet”.
    • Chinese maps show Arunachal Pradesh as part of China, and sometimes parenthetically refer to it as “so-called Arunachal Pradesh”.
    • China makes periodic efforts to underline this unilateral claim to Indian territory.
    • Giving Chinese names to places in Arunachal Pradesh is part of that effort.

    Earlier unilateral renaming

    • This is the third lot of “standardized” names of places in Arunachal Pradesh that China has announced.
    • Earlier in 2017, it had issued “official” Chinese names for six places spanning the breadth of Arunachal Pradesh

    What is China’s argument for claiming these areas?

    • The PRC disputes the legal status of the McMahon Line, the official boundary under the ‘Convention between Great Britain, China, and Tibet’ — of 1914 (Simla Convention).
    • China was represented at the Simla Convention by a plenipotentiary of the Republic of China, which had been declared in 1912 after the Qing dynasty was overthrown.
    • The present communist government came to power only in 1949, when the People’s Republic was proclaimed.
    • The Chinese representative did not consent to the Simla Convention, saying Tibet had no independent authority to enter into international agreements.

    What is the McMohan Line?

    • The McMohan Line, named after Henry McMahon, the chief British negotiator at Shimla, was drawn from the eastern border of Bhutan to the Isu Razi pass on the China-Myanmar border.
    • China claims territory to the south of the McMahon Line, lying in Arunachal Pradesh.
    • China also bases its claims on the historical ties that have existed between the monasteries in Tawang and Lhasa.

    Intention behind these renamings

    • This renaming is a part of the Chinese strategy to assert its territorial claims over Indian territory.
    • As part of this strategy, China routinely issues statements of outrage whenever an Indian dignitary visits Arunachal Pradesh.
    • Beijing keeps harping on its “consistent” and “clear” position that the Indian possession of Arunachal Pradesh.
    • These claims have been firmly established and recognized by the world, as “illegal”.

    Arunachal not all-alone

    • Laying aggressive claims to territories on the basis of alleged historical injustices done to China is a part of Beijing’s foreign policy playbook.
    • The claim on Taiwan is one such example, as are the consistent efforts to change the “facts on the ground” in several disputed islands in the South China Sea.
    • The aggression is at all times backed in overt and covert ways by the use of China’s economic and military muscle.

     

  • Taiwan- China: India in the Event of a Cross-Strait Conflict

    Conflict

    Central Idea

     

    • India needs to proactively consider its military, diplomatic, and economic responses to a potential cross-strait conflict between China and Taiwan.

     

    Background

     

    • PLA’s frequent military exercises near Taiwan: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is conducting frequent military exercises near Taiwan, increasing the risk of escalation in the Taiwan Strait.
    • Forceful reunification: Some analysts believe that China, under President Xi Jinping, is preparing for a forceful reunification campaign by 2027.

     

    Conflict

    The impact of a cross-strait conflict between China and Taiwan on India

     

    • Disruption of trade: India’s trade through the South China Sea (SCS) accounts for nearly 55% of its total trade with the Indo-Pacific region. A conflict in the Taiwan Strait could severely disrupt this trade, affecting India’s economy. Additionally, trade with Taiwan, China (India’s second-largest trading partner), East Asia, and some Southeast Asian countries would also be severely impacted.
    • Strategic implications: As a member of the Quad, India would face serious strategic consequences in the event of a cross-strait conflict. New Delhi would be expected to respond in support of its partners, particularly the United States, which may lead to a significant shift in the regional balance of power and India’s international commitments.
    • Escalation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC): India’s involvement in a conflict over Taiwan may prompt China to escalate tensions along the LAC, leading to an increased risk of military confrontation between India and China. This would put additional pressure on India’s military and resources, as it would have to prepare for a potential two-front conflict.
    • Diplomatic challenges: India’s involvement in a conflict over Taiwan would strain its diplomatic relations with China and complicate its foreign policy priorities in the region. New Delhi would have to balance its commitments to its allies and partners with the need to maintain a stable relationship with Beijing.
    • Economic costs: The economic fallout from a cross-strait conflict could be considerable for India, with potential disruptions to supply chains, investment flows, and regional economic integration efforts. This could hinder India’s economic growth and development objectives in the short to medium term.
    • Security concerns: A cross-strait conflict could lead to increased military deployments, escalations, and proxy conflicts in the region, raising security concerns for India. This would necessitate greater vigilance and preparedness from the Indian military and intelligence agencies to address potential threats.
    • Humanitarian consequences: In the event of a large-scale conflict, India may face the challenge of responding to humanitarian crises resulting from displaced populations, refugees, and the disruption of essential services in the region. This could put additional strain on India’s resources and infrastructure.

     

    India’s likely responses

     

    • Military response: India could assist partner countries, including the US, by sharing experience and intelligence on dealing with the PLA. It could also offer its mainland for refuelling aircraft and access to its Andaman and Nicobar Island bases.
    • Diplomatic response: India could participate in a United Nations General Assembly resolution condemning Chinese aggression.
    • Economic response: India is unlikely to impose targeted sanctions on China due to the negative trade balance between the two countries.

     

    Conflict

    India’s proactive measures

     

    • Information sharing: India can establish a secure communication channel with Taiwan to exchange vital intelligence and real-time information on Chinese military movements and strategies. This would help Taiwan to better anticipate potential threats and improve its defensive capabilities.
    • Training Taiwanese armed forces personnel: India can secretly collaborate with Taiwan to train its armed forces personnel in specific operations and tactics. This may include joint exercises and training programs in areas like counterinsurgency, mountain warfare, and special operations, which could enhance Taiwan’s military preparedness.
    • Consultative mechanisms: India can set up consultative mechanisms with Taipei, Tokyo, and Washington to discuss and coordinate their strategic approaches towards deterring a Chinese attack on Taiwan. This collaboration can lead to the development of joint strategies, contingency plans, and a coordinated response in case of a conflict.
    • Strengthening defense ties: India can explore options to strengthen defense ties with Taiwan by providing it with military equipment, technology, and logistical support. This could help Taiwan build a more robust defense system and deter potential Chinese aggression.
    • Economic diversification for Taiwan: India can play a significant role in helping Taiwan diversify its trade and economic dependencies away from China. By increasing bilateral trade, investment, and technological cooperation, India can provide Taiwan with the scale it needs to reduce its overdependence on Beijing.
    • Soft power diplomacy: India can leverage its soft power and cultural ties to build stronger relationships with Taiwan, promoting people-to-people exchanges, educational collaborations, and cultural events. This would not only strengthen the bond between the two countries but also raise awareness and support for Taiwan’s cause on the international stage.
    • Encouraging international support: India can work with its allies and partners in the Quad, as well as other regional and global forums, to build a broader coalition supporting Taiwan’s sovereignty and security. By advocating for Taiwan’s inclusion in international organizations and platforms, India can help raise its global profile and encourage other countries to support Taiwan in the event of a conflict.

     

    Conclusion

     

    • While India would face challenges in the event of a cross-strait conflict, it is crucial for New Delhi to plan for the inevitable and proactively consider its military, diplomatic, and economic responses to such a crisis.

    Mains Question

    Q. There are signs of potential cross-strait conflict between China and Taiwan. In this backdrop discuss its impact on India

  • China’s West Asia policy and Implications for India

    Central Idea

    • China’s increasing involvement in global power dynamics has been propelled by its diplomatic work in West Asia, which has been facilitated by regional states leveraging its influence with Iran. China’s role as peacemaker in the region has given it a significant advantage in global power tussles, especially in the wake of the Saudi Arabia-Iran diplomatic thaw. However, the implications of China’s role in global power dynamics are far-reaching.

    China’s Diplomatic Influence in the Region

    • Saudi Arabia-Iran diplomatic thaw: The diplomatic thaw between Saudi Arabia and Iran has propelled China further into global power tussles. Saudi Arabia and Iran have been in a long-standing rivalry, which has caused instability in the region. However, the recent diplomatic thaw has provided an opportunity for China to expand its influence in the region.
    • China’s role as peacemaker in West Asia: China’s role as peacemaker in West Asia has given it a significant advantage in global power tussles. Beijing has leveraged its influence with Iran to broker peace deals in the region. China’s diplomatic efforts have been largely successful, and it has emerged as a key player in global power dynamics.
    • Implications of China’s role in global power dynamics: China’s diplomatic efforts have put it in a unique position to shape the global order, especially as the United States’ influence wanes. China’s growing influence has also raised concerns among other major powers, who fear that China’s ambitions may threaten their interests.

    India’s Political and Diplomatic Outreach in West Asia

    • Cultural and geographical proximity: India’s outreach in West Asia has been extensive, with a deep cultural history and geographic proximity to the region.
    • Diplomacy and dialogue: India has not commented on the Saudi Arabia-Iran thaw but has always stood for diplomacy and dialogue.
    • India’s official position “No third-party mediation”: Many in West Asia believe that India is in a good position to act as a mediator in the region’s conflicts, but India has baulked at such an idea due to its official position of not supporting third-party mediation on Kashmir with Pakistan.

    India’s Relations with Iran

    • India’s relations with Iran have been impacted by sanctions and difficulties in fastening or upscaling developmental activities at Chabahar Port.
    • India’s economic relations with Iran have suffered due to sanctions and India’s efforts to build closer ties with the US by promoting talks with Iran over the latter’s nuclear program.
    • Strategic interests in Iran for India remain palpable, especially in light of the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan and Russia’s war against Ukraine.

    China’s influence and impact on India’s relations in the region

    • China’s capacity to influence Iran: China’s growing economic and political influence in Iran could potentially give it leverage over Iran’s foreign policy decisions, especially with regard to its relations with India. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has also been a major factor in shaping China’s relations with Iran, and India’s decision not to join the initiative has limited its economic ties with Iran.
    • Russia and middle east: China’s increasing collaboration with Russia in the Middle East, particularly in Syria, is also a cause of concern for India. Russia’s closer military cooperation with Iran, coupled with its drifting towards China, could potentially create a power bloc in the region that may not be aligned with India’s interests.
    • Peacemaker in West Asia: China’s efforts in brokering a diplomatic thaw between the two countries could potentially lead to a reduction in tensions in the region. While this could be seen as a positive development, it could also impact India’s interests in the region, particularly given its close ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

    New Delhi’s need to readjust its positions in the region

    • India’s historic ties with Iran and its strategic interests in the region make it imperative for India to maintain strong ties with Iran.
    • India will also need to balance its relations with other regional players, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have been key partners in India’s energy security and economic growth.
    • India may also need to explore new avenues for economic engagement with Iran, given the limitations posed by sanctions and China’s growing presence in the region.

    Conclusion

    • China’s role as peacemaker in West Asia still needs to play out, but its influence on the region and global politics has implications for India’s relations with Iran. Given China’s growing influence in West Asia, India will need to reassess its position in the region and adjust its foreign policy accordingly.

    Mains Question

    Q. Discuss the impact of China’s growing diplomatic influence in West Asia on India’s relations with Iran and other regional players. How should India readjust its positions in the region to maintain its strategic interests?

     

     

     

  • Chinese firm to build Solomon Islands Port Project

    solomon

    A Chinese state-backed company has won a contract to develop Honiara, a key port in the Solomon Islands. This is a major victory for China, which is seeking to gain a strategic foothold in the South Pacific.

    Why discuss this?

    • The Solomon Islands have become a focal point in the diplomatic tussle between China and the US, following the signing of a secret security pact between the Solomons and Beijing in 2022.
    • This has raised concerns that China may be establishing a permanent naval base in the country.

    About Solomon Islands

    • The Solomon Islands is a sovereign country consisting of six major islands and over 900 smaller islands in Oceania, to the east of Papua New Guinea and northwest of Vanuatu.
    • Its capital, Honiara, is located on the largest island, Guadalcanal.
    • It is part of the ethnically Melanesian group of islands in the Pacific and lies between Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu.
    • The country takes its name from the Solomon Islands archipelago, which is a collection of Melanesian islands that also includes the North Solomon Islands (a part of Papua New Guinea).
    • It excludes outlying islands, such as the Santa Cruz Islands and Rennell and Bellona.

    Quick recap of its past

    • The islands, which were initially controlled by the British Empire during the colonial era, went through the hands of Germany and Japan.
    • It then went back to the UK after the Americans took over the islands from the Japanese during World War II.
    • The islands became independent in 1978 to become a constitutional monarchy under the British Crown, with a parliamentary system of government.
    • Nevertheless, its inability to manage domestic ethnic conflicts led to close security relations with Australia, which is the traditional first responder to any crisis in the South Pacific.

    How did China enter the picture?

    • Earlier this year, the Solomon Islands established a security agreement with China, saying it needed Beijing’s assistance with its domestic security situation.
    • But the announcement had rattled the west, esp. the US, Australia and others in the Indo-Pacific region.
    • The concerns were that the agreement could potentially lead to a Chinese military base on the island nation and a gain in power-projection capabilities.
    • At that time, following intense scrutiny, the Solomon Islands had denied that the agreement would allow China to establish a naval base.

    What is the Solomon Islands’ stance?

    • The government has asked all partner countries with plans to conduct naval visits or patrols to put them on hold until a revised national mechanism is in place.
    • The revised national mechanism applied to all foreign vessels seeking access to the country’s ports.
    • The nation wanted to build up its own naval capacity.
    • It has some unfortunate experiences of foreign naval vessels entering its waters without any diplomatic clearance.

    What is behind China’s growing influence in the region?

    • There is no dispute that China has been rapidly increasing its presence and influence in the region for over three decades, particularly in the South Pacific.
    • Certainly Beijing views the Pacific Island region as an important component of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
    • Specifically, it sees the region as a critical air freight hub in its so-called Air Silk Road, which connects Asia with Central and South America.

    Concerns of the West

    • The port project could open the door to a Chinese naval base, which would significantly extend China’s military reach in the South Pacific.”
    • It is likely that this security agreement between China and the Solomon Islands has been driven by, what the CFR calls, Beijing’s “sense of vulnerability” in the region.

    What is the rationale for the Solomon Islands’ increasing proximity to China?

    • The Solomon Islands had cultivated strong ties with Taiwan, which ended with the emergence of the current government in Honiara.
    • In 2019, the regime change switched Taiwan for China.
    • This was supposedly after Beijing offered half a billion US dollars in financial aid, roughly five times what Taiwan spent on the islands in the past two decades.
    • It has been alleged by the pro-Taiwan Opposition that the incumbent government has been bribed by China.

    Why is China interested in the Solomon Islands?

    • Isolating Taiwan: The Solomon Islands was one among the six Pacific island states which had official bilateral relations with Taiwan.
    • Supporter in UN: The small Pacific island states act as potential vote banks for mobilising support for the great powers in international fora like the United Nations.
    • Larger EEZ: These states have disproportionately large maritime Exclusive Economic Zones when compared to their small sizes.
    • Natural resources: Solomon Islands, in particular, have significant reserves of timber and mineral resources, along with fisheries.
    • Countering US: But more importantly, they are strategically located for China to insert itself between America’s military bases in the Pacific islands and Australia.

    What does this mean for the established geopolitical configuration in the region?

    • Diminishing western influence: The Pacific islands, in the post-World War II scenario, were exclusively under the spheres of influence of the Western powers, in particular, the US, UK, France and Australia and New Zealand.
    • Inserting into western hegemony: All of them have territorial possessions in the region, with the three nuclear powers among them having used the region as a nuclear weapons testing ground.
    • Shifting of dependencies: The smaller island nations of the region are heavily dependent on them, especially Australia as it is a resident power.
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