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GS Paper: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

  • The Global Security Initiative (GSI) : China’s Sincere Effort or a Mere Counter-Narrative?

    Central Idea

    • The Global Security Initiative (GSI), a China-led framework aiming to restore stability and security in Asia, appears to be more of a counter-narrative to U.S. leadership rather than a genuine attempt to establish a sustainable security order.

    What is GSI?

    • The GSI was introduced by Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Qin Gang at the Lanting Forum in Beijing.
    • The initiative is based on five pillars: mutual respect, openness and inclusion, multilateralism, mutual benefit, and a holistic approach.

    Analysis: China’s track record shows a different picture than what the GSI envisions

    1. Mutual Respect and Adherence to International Law:
    • China’s relations with neighbors like India and Southeast Asian countries demonstrate a lack of respect for their sovereignty and territorial integrity.
    • China’s assertive manoeuvres in the South China Sea, rejection of UNCLOS, and undermining of India’s territorial integrity are at odds with the GSI’s first principle.
    1. Openness and Inclusion:
    • Despite advocating for openness and inclusion, China engages in exclusionary policies in the East and South China Seas, rejecting freedom of navigation and consolidating its sphere of influence.
    1. Multilateralism and Security Cooperation:
    • China’s involvement in multilateral institutions often involves asymmetric power relations, as seen in its dealings with ASEAN members.
    • Its delay in establishing a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea and ongoing militarization in the region undermine this principle.
    1. Mutual Benefit:
    • China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has the potential to benefit all parties involved. However, its funding of unsustainable projects for countries with low credit ratings creates debt burdens and destabilizes international macroeconomic stability.
    • China’s insistence on a larger share in joint resource exploration with the Philippines is another example of disregarding mutual benefit.
    1. Holistic Approach:
    • China’s rise in a transitioning multipolar international system has led to power competitions with established and rising powers, such as the U.S. and India.
    • Its engagements with these powers indicate a narrowly defined goal for its power interests. Furthermore, China’s involvement in non-traditional security threats, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and arming terror groups, shows a lack of holistic approach.

    Conclusion

    • China’s rise in a transitioning multipolar international system has led to power competitions with established and rising powers, and its involvement in non-traditional security threats shows a lack of holistic approach. It’s Global Security Initiative, which is a vision of a future security order, is vastly different from China’s recent track record of external engagement.

    Mains Question

    Q. What is China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI)? It is said that China’s GSI is vastly different from China’s recent track record of external engagement. Discuss

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  • India-China: Border Management Mechanism

    Central Idea

    • India and China appear to be moving towards a new modus vivendi to maintain peace and tranquillity along their disputed 4,000 kilometre border. They are discussing measures to ease the border situation, including creating no-patrol zones along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and upgrading the border management mechanism.

    Older arrangements and need for new measures

    • Blockades: In 2020, the older arrangements, shaped by the agreements of 1993, 1996, 2005 and 2013, came apart in Ladakh after the Chinese massed troops in Tibet and established blockades at six points on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) to prevent Indian troops from patrolling the border.
    • Clashes: A clash at Galwan in June 2020 led to the deaths of 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers, the first such losses on the LAC since 1975. The Sino-Indian clash, in December 2022, at Yangtse, north-east of Tawang, suggests that new measures may be needed across the LAC, and not just in Ladakh.

    Attempts to Ease the Border Situation

    • Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC): Important discussions that took place between Indian Ministry of External Affairs and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China, met in Beijing for the 26th Meeting of the Working WMCC on China-India Border Affairs, on February 22, 2023. This was the first in-person meeting of the WMCC that had held the previous 11 rounds since the 2020 events by video conference.
    • Other Measures: Discussions have taken up the issue of upgrading the border management means to replace the WMCC with a mechanism that will have both military and civilian officers. The no-patrol zones could lead to a package settlement in the two remaining areas of Depsang and Charding Nala.
    • Confidence-building Measures: The entire range of confidence-building measures since 1993 was premised on the belief that both sides largely accepted the lay of the LAC, though they had differences that related to some 18-20 points on it. The 1993 and 1996 agreements specifically spoke about the importance of identifying and resolving these differences.
    • No-patrol zones: The no-patrol zones could be confined to the places where the two sides have overlapping claims. Chinese journalist-scholar Qian Feng suggested that the concept of the zone of actual control could replace the “line of actual control” in some areas that had no obvious geomorphological features or population.

    The Idea of Shifting the Goalposts

    • The idea of creating no-patrol zones is an echo of the original proposal by Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai following a similar set of circumstances experienced today.
    • In October 1959, an Indian police party was ambushed at Kongka La leading to the deaths of 10 personnel and the capture of another dozen.
    • Zhou proposed to Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru in a letter of November 7, 1959, that both sides withdraw 20 kilometers from the so-called McMahon Line, as well as the line up to which each side exercises control in the west.

    Conclusion

    • Creating no-patrol zones along the LAC could be a possible solution to the border conflict, as well as upgrading the border management mechanism to include both military and civilian officers.

    Mains Question

    Q. Discuss the recent developments in the India-China border conflict and the measures being taken to maintain peace and tranquillity along the border

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  • China-India: Facilitating an Asian Century

    China

    Central idea

    • China’s recent developments in steady growth, people’s well-being, opening up, and win-win cooperation, as well as its willingness to strengthen communication and coordination with India, can provide new opportunities for all countries in the world, especially neighbouring countries. importance of China-India relations and their role in facilitating an Asian Century.

    China’s focus areas of development 

    • Modernization: China is currently advancing modernization in all fronts, based on its practices, and a focus on high-quality development.
    • Overall development: The country aims to modernize its huge population, ensuring common prosperity for all, material and cultural-ethical advancement, harmony between humanity and nature, and peaceful development.
    • New opportunities: China’s development will create new opportunities for all countries, especially neighbouring countries.

    China

    The development of China in recent years

    1. Steady Growth:
    • In 2022, China’s economy grew by 3%, and the country added a total of 12.06 million urban jobs.
    • The country’s GDP increased to 121 trillion yuan (approximately $18 trillion), registering an annual growth rate of 5.2% over the past five years and an annual growth of 6.2% over the past decade, with GDP increasing by nearly 70 trillion yuan.
    • China’s economic strength is steadily reaching new heights.
    1. People’s Well-being:
    • China has historically resolved absolute poverty, with the alleviation of close to 100 million rural residents from poverty.
    • Over 70% of the government’s expenditure went toward ensuring people’s well-being.
    • Basic old age insurance covers 1.05 billion people, an increase of 140 million. Living standards continue to witness new improvements.
    1. Opening Up:
    • In 2022, China’s total volume of trade in goods exceeded 40 trillion yuan, registering an annual growth rate of 8.6%.
    • China’s actual use of foreign capital was up by 8%, and the country remained one of the top destinations for foreign investors.
    • The overall tariff level continues to fall, from 9.8% to 7.4%. China’s doors to the outside world are opening even wider.
    1. Win-Win Cooperation
    • In the period 2013-2021, China’s contribution to global economic growth averaged 38.6%, higher than that of G7 countries combined (25.7%).
    • More than 100 countries have expressed their support, and over 60 countries have joined the Group of Friends of the Global Development Initiative (GDI) since Chinese President, Xi Jinping, proposed it in a speech at the United Nations General Assembly in 2021.

    China

    China-India Relations

    • Emerged as Representatives: As neighboring and ancient civilizations, China, and India are representatives of developing countries and emerging economies.
    • National rejuvenation: Both countries are currently in the process of national rejuvenation and a crucial period of modernization where challenges need to be overcome and problems need to be solved.
    • Interests than differences: China and India have far more common interests than differences.

    China- India Trade

    • China and India are important trading partners, with bilateral trade volume reaching $135.984 billion in 2022.
    • Although there is a trade deficit, India’s import of equipment and materials from China reduces the overall cost of Made-in-India products, benefits Indian downstream industries and consumers, enhances the competitiveness of Indian exports, and in turn facilitates India’s integration into global industrial and supply chains.

    China

    Facilitating an Asian Century

    • Chinese Foreign Minister recently stated that the development and revitalization of China and India embody a boost to the force of developing countries, which will change the destiny of a third of the world’s population and have a bearing on the future of Asia and beyond.
    • This echoes what India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar had expressed in 2022 that the Asian Century will happen when China and India come together.

    Conclusion

    • China’s development and its relationship with India are important for the region and the world. Both countries are in the process of modernization and face challenges that need to be overcome. China and India are important trading partners, and their cooperation can facilitate an Asian Century and contribute to peace and stability in the region and beyond.

    Mains Question

    Q. Provide your insights on the role of China and India in shaping the destiny of the developing countries and their impact on the future of Asia and beyond

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  • What is the McMahon Line?

    McMahon

    Central idea: Republican and Democrat senators introduced a resolution in US Congress reiterating that the US recognises the McMahon Line as the international boundary between China and India in Arunachal Pradesh.

    Significance of such move

    • This resolute confirms US (both ruling and opposition) stand with India at a time when China poses a threat to the Free and Open Indo-Pacific.
    • The resolution reaffirms India’s position that Arunachal Pradesh, which China calls ‘South Tibet’, is an integral part of India.

    What is the McMahon Line?

    • The McMahon Line serves as the de facto boundary between China and India in the Eastern Sector and represents the boundary between Arunachal Pradesh and Tibet.
    • China disputes the boundary and claims the state of Arunachal Pradesh as part of the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR).

    Under what circumstances was the McMahon Line drawn?

    • The McMahon Line was drawn during the Simla Convention of 1914, officially described as the Convention between Great Britain, China, and Tibet.
    • The British led an expedition into Tibet and signed the Convention of Lhasa in 1904, alarmed at the growing Russian influence in the region.
    • China invaded at the same time, taking control of the southeastern Kham region and pushing British officials to advocate extending British jurisdiction into the tribal territory.
    • The convention attempted to settle the question of Tibet’s sovereignty and avoid further territorial disputes in the region.

    What happened at the Simla Convention of 1913-14?

    • The Tibetan government in Lhasa was represented by its plenipotentiary Paljor Dorje Shatra, and Britain by Sir Arthur Henry McMahon, foreign secretary of British India at Delhi.
    • The Chinese plenipotentiary was Ivan Chen.
    • The treaty divided the Buddhist region into “Outer Tibet” and “Inner Tibet” and determined the border between China proper and Tibet as well as Tibet and British India.
    • The final convention was only signed by McMahon on behalf of the British government and Shatra on behalf of Lhasa.
    • Ivan Chen did not consent to the convention, arguing that Tibet had no independent authority to enter into international agreements.

    How was the border between British India and China decided?

    • The 890-km border from the corner of Bhutan to the Isu Razi Pass on the Burma border was drawn largely along the crest of the Himalayas, following the “highest watershed principle”.
    • However, exceptions were made, such as Tawang, which was included in British India due to its proximity to the Assam Valley.

    What has the status of the McMahon line been since 1914?

    • While there were disputes regarding the McMahon line from the beginning, after the communists took power in 1949, they pulled China out of all international agreements.
    • The McMahon line was not mentioned during the Bandung Conference of 1955, which was held in Indonesia and saw Asian and African leaders agree to a common stand against colonialism and the Cold War.
    • However, the Chinese have recently raised the issue of the McMahon line, and in 2017, Beijing officially renamed six places in the Arunachal Pradesh region, including the disputed area of Tawang.
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  • Explained: Understanding the Saudi-Iran Reconciliation

    iran

    Central idea: Saudi Arabia and Iran, two of West Asia’s major powers that have been at odds with each other for decades, agreed to restore diplomatic relations last week in an agreement brokered by China.

    Saudi-Iran Ties: A timeline

    • Pre-1979: Saudi Arabia and Iran compete for regional dominance.
    • 1979: Iranian Revolution brings down the monarchy and turns Iran into a Shia theocratic republic.
    • 1980-1988: Iran-Iraq war sees Saudi Arabia support Iraq.
    • 1990-1991: Saudi Arabia supports Iraq against Iran in the Gulf War.
    • 1996: Iranian-backed Hezbollah bombs Saudi military housing complex in Khobar, killing 19 US soldiers.
    • 2011-2015: Saudi Arabia and Iran support opposing sides in the Syrian civil war.
    • 2015: Saudi Arabia launches military intervention in Yemen against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.
    • January 2016: Saudi Arabia executes prominent Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, leading to protests in Iran and the burning of the Saudi embassy in Tehran.
    • 2016: Saudi and several Arab allies cut diplomatic ties with Iran.
    • 2019: Saudi oil facilities are attacked, leading to increased tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
    • 2021: Both begin direct talks, brokered by China.
    • March 2023: Both nations announce an agreement to restore diplomatic ties, brokered by China.

    Reasons for hostile relations

    The hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran has its roots in a complex mix of historical, geopolitical, religious, and ideological factors.

    • Religious contradictions: Historically, the rivalry between the two countries dates back to the seventh century when the Prophet Muhammad died without a clear successor, leading to a dispute over the leadership of the Muslim community. This dispute ultimately resulted in the split between Sunni Islam (which dominates in Saudi Arabia) and Shia Islam (which dominates in Iran).
    • Geopolitical tensions: The two countries are located in a strategically important region, with both seeking to exert influence and maintain dominance in the Middle East. Iran’s Islamic revolution in 1979 posed a challenge to Saudi Arabia’s status as the leading Islamic power in the region, and the two countries have been competing for regional influence ever since.
    • Sectarian tensions: Saudi Arabia and Iran have long had competing visions for the role of Islam in society. Saudi Arabia promotes a strict interpretation of Sunni Islam known as Wahhabism, while Iran supports Shia Islam and the principle of the “Guardianship of the Jurist,” which asserts that a senior Shia cleric should have political power and authority over all Muslims.
    • Ties with west: The two countries have fundamentally different views on a range of issues, including democracy, human rights, and regional security. Saudi Arabia is a conservative monarchy with close ties to the United States, while Iran is an Islamic republic that has been at odds with the West since the 1979 revolution.

    All these factors have contributed to the ongoing hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the tensions between the two countries continue to have a destabilizing effect on the region.Top of Form

    What are the terms of the agreement?

    • The details of the agreement are yet to be unveiled.
    • Iran has reportedly agreed to prevent further attacks against Saudi Arabia from Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen while Saudi Arabia has agreed to rein in Iran International, a Farsi news channel critical of the Iranian regime.
    • Foreign Ministers of both countries will meet soon to thrash out the terms of the reconciliation before reopening embassies in each other’s capitals in two months.
    • China is planning to host a cross-Gulf conference of Iran and the six Gulf monarchies to further strengthen peace in the region.

    Why did Saudi Arabia reach out to Iran (defying the US)?

    Ans. Iran’s Rise, and Changing Alliances

    • Internal Security: When Saudi oil facilities were attacked in 2019, the US looked away, prompting the Saudis to look for alternative solutions for the Iran problem, such as reaching out to the Iranians.
    • Differences over Palestine: The US was trying to broker a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel to bring the two pillars of its West Asia policy together against Iran.
    • US negligence of West Asia: The US deprioritized West Asia due to bigger foreign policy challenges, such as the Russian war in Ukraine and China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific.
    • Obsolesce of ties with US: Relations between Saudi Arabia and the US have been rocky in recent years, as the US is not as dependent on Gulf Arabs as it used to be during the Cold War.
    • Shared opinions over Israel: Saudi Arabia has been hesitant to reconcile with Israel, and its relations with the US have been rocky in recent years.

    What led Iran to accept the deal?

    • Isolation and Domestic pressure: Tehran is aware that getting relief from Western sanctions is not a near-term possibility. Despite crackdown, protests in Iran refuse to die down.
    • Crumbling economy: Iran’s economy is deteriorating and its currency, the rial, is struggling. A deal with Saudi Arabia, under China’s mediation, could open economic lifelines for Iran
    • China factor: Iran wanted Chinese investments and support for the rial. China allowed Iran to withdraw parts of the $20 billion funds frozen with Chinese banks due to US sanctions.
    • Fouling American efforts: Iran knows that such a deal could complicate American efforts to rally Arab countries and Israel against it. A reconciliation with Saudi is beneficial for Iran, at least in a tactical sense.

    Why is China brokering the deal?

    • Securing its oil supplies: China has an interest in promoting stability in the Middle East region, which is a major source of oil and natural gas for China.
    • Side-lining the US: By brokering a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, China can position itself as a mediator and gain goodwill from both sides.
    • Create alternative axis: China has longstanding relationships with both countries. The US since Trumps departure is distancing itself from the US, whereas China is also getting closer to Russia amid the war.
    • Image building as a leader: While the US is busy rallying the Western world to arm Ukraine to push back Russia and weaken Moscow through sanctions, China is quietly brokering peace in the Global South.

    US reception of this deal

    • Welcomed the move: The public narrative is that the peace deal would help stabilize the region and benefit the global energy market.

    Key implications for the US

    • Hegemony decline: The US would not like to lose its influence in West Asia even when it is deprioritizing the region.
    • Saudi drifts away: US sees an ally (Saudi Arabia) drifting further away, a rival it wanted to contain (Iran) making new friends, and China spreading and deepening its influence in a region the US has dominated historically.
    • Iran Sanctions going loose: The Iran nuclear deal is practically dead and the US wants Saudi Arabia to normalize ties with Israel and put up a joint front against Iran.

    What inferences can be drawn from all these?

    • Strategic realignments in West Asia: It can be inferred that West Asia is currently undergoing significant strategic realignments, with the UAE normalizing relations with Israel and other Arab countries deepening their partnerships.
    • Shifted US focus on Ukraine and Indo-Pacific: The US, which traditionally held significant power in the region, has deprioritized West Asia due to bigger foreign policy challenges such as Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific.
    • China occupying power vacuum: This deprioritization has created a power vacuum that has allowed Iran to rise as a challenge, prompting the US to try to bring Israel and the Arab world together against Iran.

     

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  • Bhutan no longer a ‘Least Developed Country’

    bhutan

    Central idea: Bhutan will become the seventh country to graduate from the United Nations’ list of Least Developed Countries (LDC) on December 13, 2023.

    What is a Least Developed Country (LDC)?

    • The LDCs are developing countries listed by the UN that exhibit the lowest indicators of socioeconomic development.
    • The concept first originated in the late 1960s and was codified under UN resolution 2768 passed in November 1971.
    • According to the UN, an LDC is defined as “a country that exhibits the lowest indicators of socioeconomic development, with-
    1. Low levels of income, human capital and economic diversification,
    2. High levels of economic vulnerability, and
    3. A population that is disproportionately reliant on agriculture, natural resources, and primary commodities.

    Criteria for LDCs

    • The UN identifies three criteria for a country to be classified as an LDC:
    1. It must have a gross national income (GNI) per capita below the threshold of USD 1,230 over a three-year average.
    2. It must perform poorly on a composite human assets index based on indicators including nutrition, health and education.
    3. It must demonstrate economic vulnerability such as being prone to natural disasters and possessing structural economic constraints.
    • Countries must meet a selection from all three criteria simultaneously and are reviewed on a three-year basis by the UN.

    How many countries are LDCs?

    • Currently, the UN lists 46 countries that qualify as LDCs.
    • Of those, 33 are from Africa, nine from Asia, three from the Pacific and one from the Caribbean.
    • At the UN 2021 triennial review of LDC countries, the organisation recommended that Bangladesh, Laos, and Nepal be removed from the list.

    How does a country get off the LDC list?

    • To graduate from the LDC list, a country must meet certain criteria in the three areas stated before namely, income, human assets, and economic vulnerability.
    • A nation must have a GNI per capita of at least USD 1,242 for two consecutive triennial reviews in order to meet the income requirement.
    • The nation must also show that this level of income can be sustained over the long term.
    • A nation also must show that it has improved its ability to withstand external economic shocks like natural catastrophes or shifts in commodity prices in order to pass the economic vulnerability test.

    How did Bhutan get off the LDC list?

    • Bhutan was included in the first group of LDCs in 1971. It fulfilled the requirements for graduation in 2015 and 2018.
    • Bhutan’s economy grew more than eight times in the last 20 years, from under USD 300 million in 2000 to USD 2.53 billion in 2017.
    • The percentage of people living in poverty decreased from 17.8 per cent in 2003 to 1.5 per cent in 2017.
    • The percentage of people living below the national poverty line decreased from 23.2 per cent in 2007 to 8.2 per cent in 2017.

    What economic measures did it take?

    • Hydropower exports: Bhutan increased exports of hydropower to India, which now accounts for 20 per cent of its economy.
    • Brand Bhutan: Bhutan established Brand Bhutan to diversify exports and target high-end markets with specialised exports of high-value, low-volume Bhutanese goods from sectors including textiles, tourism, handicrafts, culture, and natural resources.
    • Tourism promotion: It emerged out to be an all-season tourist destination in South Asia.

    Advantages of being an LDC

    • LDCs enjoy duty-free and quota-free (DFQF) access to the markets of developed countries.
    • LDCs are also eligible for loans with special terms for development, which include loans with a lower interest rate and a longer repayment time than those given to other nations.
    • The term “Official Development Assistance” (ODA) or “aid” is frequently used to describe this form of support.

    Way forward for Bhutan

    • As such, advancing out of the list is often only the first step in overall development.
    • Graduation from LDC status is not the end of the road, but the beginning of a new journey.
    • It is a time when a country needs to redouble its efforts to build its productive capacities, diversify its economy, and create new opportunities for employment and income generation.

    Back2Basics: Defining a country’s ‘Development’

    • There are no WTO definitions of “developed” or “developing” countries.
    • Developing countries in the WTO are designated on the basis of self-selection although this is not necessarily automatically accepted in all WTO bodies.
    • The WTO however recognizes as least-developed countries (LDCs) those countries which have been designated as such by the United Nations.

     

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  • India-Bangladesh Relations: The Golden Chapter

    Bangladesh

    Central Idea

    • In recent years, Bangladesh-India relations have entered the Golden Chapter in their relations. Setting the seal on this bilateral bonhomie, The Prime Minister of Bangladesh has been invited by the Indian Prime Minister to attend the G20 Summit as a special guest. Bangladesh is the only South Asian country to be on India’s guest list. India’s invitation to Bangladesh as its guest speaks volumes of the high priority the country accords its immediate eastern neighbor and ‘best friend’ in the neighborhood’.

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    India-Bangladesh ties: An organic transformation

    • India’s links with Bangladesh are civilization, cultural, social and economic.
    • There is much that unites the two countries – a shared history and common heritage, linguistic and cultural ties, and passion for music, literature and the arts.
    • It is also worth recalling that India shares its longest border of 4,096.7 kilometres with Bangladesh, which is also the fifth-longest border in the contemporary world.
    • With the onset of economic liberalization in South Asia, they forged greater bilateral engagement and trade.

    Bangladesh

    In Depth: Why Bangladesh is cardinally important to India?

    1. India’s largest trading partner in South Asia
    • Bangladesh emerged as India’s largest trading partner: In 2021-22, Bangladesh emerged as India’s largest trading partner in South Asia and India is Bangladesh’s second-largest trading partner and its largest export market in Asia. Despite the pandemic, bilateral trade has grown at an unprecedented rate of 14 per cent
    • Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement: The two countries are also preparing to sign the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, for substantial enhancement of trade and commercial partnerships between the two countries.
    1. Gateway for India’s Northeast
    • Strategic location: Efforts have been made in recent years by both Bangladesh and India to improve connectivity between Bangladesh and India’s Northeast, which is geographically located between West Bengal and landlocked Northeastern states.
    • Initiatives to Improve Connectivity: Initiatives such as inviting India to use Chattogram and Mongla ports, adding new ports and protocol routes to the shared inland waterway network, constructing the Maitri and Padma Setu bridges, and the upcoming Akhaura-Agartala rail line, aim to provide better trade and transport connectivity. The Mitali Express has also been operationalized for bi-weekly journeys between New Jalpaiguri and Dhaka.
    • Important for stability and security issues: Bangladesh has been an outstanding partner of India on security issues, especially with its zero-tolerance attitude towards terrorism. On several occasions, Bangladesh has arrested and handed over insurgents from the separatist militant groups in the Northeast (United Liberation Front of Asom) to India.
    • A central pillar in India’s Neighbourhood First and Act East Policies
    • Bay of Bengal’s Increasing Strategic Significance: The increasing strategic significance of the Bay of Bengal, heightened by China’s rising and assertive presence in this maritime space has led India to bolster relations with the Bay littorals to ensure its pre-eminence in the Bay, which it considers to be a primary area of interest.
    • Important  for India’s Eastern Neighborhood Policy: Furthermore, as its western front remains troubled, India is increasingly trying to build stronger relations with its eastern neighbourhood to realise its Indo-Pacific aspirations.
    • As china trying to make inroads, India Reviving and Cultivating Cooperation: As China also tries to make inroads into Bangladesh to gain a stronger foothold in the Bay region, India has felt an added impetus to nurture its relationship with the country, reviving age-old bonds and cultivating new avenues for cooperation.
    • India’s Vaccine Maitri Initiative For example: In the pandemic, India prioritised Bangladesh and supplied 10.3 crore vaccine doses to the country, making it the largest recipient of its Vaccine Maitri initiative. The gesture was generously reciprocated, by providing of

    Bangladesh

    Key Areas of Cooperation on India’s G20 Agenda

    1. Climate change and disaster management
    • Green Development, Climate Finance and LiFE’: As the name suggests, the segment is devoted to developing environmental consciousness and understanding the impact of climate change with a particular focus towards not only climate finance and technology, but also ensuring just energy transitions for developing nations across the world.
    • For instance: Both countries agreed to cooperate on climate change with particular attention to the Sundarban area which is facing challenges due to climate-induced sea level rise.
    • Disaster risk reduction: Both India and Bangladesh experience frequent disasters such as cyclones originating from the turbulent Bay of Bengal. Consequently, the two countries signed an MoU on Disaster Management in 2021, to mitigate this transnational threat.
    1. Transition to renewable energy
    • Energy transition and cooperation: As energy transitions are an important issue in India’s G20 mandate, recently, Bangladesh announced its target of generating 40 percent of power from clean energy by 2041. India-Bangladesh have increased cooperation in the energy sector.
    • Projects for instance: With projects such as the Friendship Pipeline and Maitree Super Thermal Power Project, and agreed to enhance cooperation in energy efficiency and clean energy, including biofuels.
    • Cyber security
    • Cyber security cooperation: Cyber security is an intrinsic aspect of Digital Public Infrastructures (DPI’s) and also happens to be one of the areas in which India-Bangladesh have agreed to cooperate.
    • Joining hands to enhance AI and cyber security: In June 2022, both countries decided to expand their strategic partnership to enhance Artificial Intelligence (AI) and cyber security.

    Way ahead: Forging better multilateralism

    • Within G20, a priority for India is to promote reformed multilateralism which cultivates accountable, inclusive, just, equitable and representative multipolar international systems, fit for addressing contemporary challenges.
    • As one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, Bangladesh will become even more important for India in future.
    • In many of the multilateral platforms in India’s neighbourhood (an area India seeks to influence), Bangladesh is also a member, for e.g., SAARC, BIMSTEC, and IORA.
    • The country’s support is, therefore, necessary, if India’s G20 aspiration is to find a reflection in regional multilateral platforms.

    Bangladesh

    Conclusion

    • As India tries to shape the global agenda through G20 it needs Bangladesh’s support to translate many of these ideas into action in its neighbourhood. This will lend further credibility to its presidency and in the long run, some of these nascent areas of cooperation may add pages to the “Golden Chapter” in India-Bangladesh relations.

  • 34 years of Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan

    afghanistan

    Central idea: The article discusses the Soviet Union’s withdrawal from Afghanistan 34 years ago, which marked the end of a nearly decade-long occupation.

    Fun fact:

    “Charlie Wilson’s War” is a 2007 American biographical comedy-drama based on the true story of Charlie Wilson, a former United States Congressman who played a key role in supporting the Afghan mujahideen during the Soviet-Afghan War of the 1980s.

    The film is notable for its depiction of the complex and often murky world of international politics and covert operations. It also highlights the unintended consequences of the US’s support for the Afghan mujahideen, which included the rise of the Taliban and the emergence of al-Qaeda.

     

    Why did the Soviet Union invade Afghanistan?

    • Establish influence: The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in December 1979 in an attempt to support a friendly communist government (Saur Revolution) that had seized power in Kabul earlier that year.
    • Prevent radicalization of its southern states: The Soviet Union saw the situation in Afghanistan as an opportunity to extend its influence in the region and to protect its southern borders from Islamic fundamentalism.
    • Countering US influence in Pakistan: The Soviet Union was concerned about the possibility of the United States gaining a foothold in Afghanistan and potentially using it as a base for attacks against the Soviet Union.

    What led to its withdrawal?

    • US-powered rebel groups: The Soviet Union’s occupation of Afghanistan faced fierce opposition from Afghan rebel groups, who were supported by the US and trained by Pakistan hoping that the jihadis would wage war on India and liberate Kashmir.
    • Huge casualties: The conflict turned into a protracted and costly war that lasted almost a decade, with the Soviet Union suffering significant casualties and eventually withdrawing its troops in 1989.
    • Fall of USSR: After the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989, the Afghan government, which had been propped up by the Soviet Union, soon collapsed, and the country plunged into a civil war.

    Aftermath: Radicalization of Afghanistan

    • Rise of Taliban: Various factions vied for power, and the Taliban emerged as a dominant force. The Taliban, a hardline Islamist group, took control of the country in 1996 and imposed a strict interpretation of Islamic law. This rule was marked by brutality and oppression, including the widespread use of public executions, amputations, and other forms of punishment.
    • Safe havens for terror: The group provided a safe haven for Al Qaeda, which was responsible for the 9/11 attacks in the US.

    How US came to Afghanistan?

    • In response to the 9/11 attacks, the United States led a coalition of forces in an invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.
    • The Taliban was quickly ousted from power, and a new ‘democratic’ government was established.
    • However, the conflict continued, and the Taliban gradually regained strength, launching attacks on government forces and civilian targets.

    Why did the US left Afghanistan?

    In August 2021, the US completed its withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, marking the end of a 20-year-long military presence in the country.  It decided to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan for several reasons-

    • Massive cost: The conflict had lasted for two decades, and the United States had spent over $2 trillion on the war effort.
    • Huge casualties: The number of lives lost by the United States in the war in Afghanistan is a matter of debate, but it is estimated that more than 2,400 US military personnel were killed in the conflict.
    • Mission accomplished: The US had achieved many of its initial objectives in Afghanistan, such as dismantling Al Qaeda’s infrastructure and removing the Taliban from power.
    • Foreign policy shift: The withdrawal of US forces was part of a broader shift in US foreign policy towards a focus on great power competition, particularly with China and Russia.
    • America first policy: The US had also sought to end what it saw as “endless wars” in the Middle East and refocus its attention on domestic priorities.

    Assessing Taliban rule now

    Since taking control of Afghanistan in August 2021, the Taliban has taken a number of steps to consolidate its power and impose its ideology on the Afghan people. Some of the ways in which the Taliban has been accused of ruining Afghanistan are:

    • Imposing Sharia: The Taliban is an Islamist extremist group that seeks to impose its strict interpretation of Islamic law on the country.
    • Human rights abuses: The Taliban has been accused of committing widespread human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings, summary executions, and forced disappearances.
    • Oppression of women: The group has also targeted women and girls, imposing strict dress codes and limiting their access to education and employment.
    • Restrictions on free speech and the press: The Taliban has cracked down on freedom of expression and the press, shutting down independent media outlets and arresting journalists and activists who oppose their rule.
    • Economic and humanitarian crisis: The Taliban’s takeover has caused an economic and humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, with many people struggling to access basic necessities like food and medical care.
    • International isolation: Many countries have suspended aid and diplomatic relations with Afghanistan, and the UN has expressed concern about the group’s human rights record.

    How is India helping the Afghan people cause?

    India has been actively involved in providing humanitarian aid to the people of Afghanistan, especially in the wake of the Taliban’s return to power. Some of the ways in which India is helping the Afghan people are:

    • Providing food and medical aid: India has sent several consignments of food and medical aid to Afghanistan, including wheat, medicines, and other essential supplies. The aid is being delivered through various channels, including the Afghan Red Crescent Society and the UN.
    • Supporting refugees: India has a long history of providing support to Afghan refugees, and the government has pledged to continue this tradition in the wake of the Taliban’s return to power. India has said it will grant visas to Afghan nationals who are seeking refuge, and the government has also set up a new portal to streamline the visa application process.
    • Diplomatic efforts: India has been working to build international support for the Afghan people, and the government has been in touch with various countries and international organizations to coordinate relief efforts. India has also called for an inclusive political settlement in Afghanistan that respects the rights of all Afghan citizens, including women and minorities.

    Conclusion

    • The situation in Afghanistan is complex and challenging, and there are no easy solutions.

     

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  • Indus Water Treaty: A Case of Hydropolitics

    Indus

    Context

    • Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) made it the headlines recently. As India issued a notification to Pakistan for modification to the treaty, speculations are rife that the treaty is showing signs of inefficacy and that cracks are visible on the sole bridge between the two nuclear neighbours. On the other hand, for many in the hydro-diplomacy community, the IWT remain a stellar example for asserting that nations can cooperate for managing their shared rivers even with mutual mistrust and hostile political relations.

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    Indus

    What is Indus Water Treaty (IWT)?

    • The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank signed in Karachi in 1960.
    • According to this agreement, control over the water flowing in three eastern rivers of India the Beas, the Ravi and the Sutlej was given to India.
    • The control over the water flowing in three western rivers of India the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum was given to Pakistan

    Indus

    The present developments

    • Intergovernmental negotiations to rectify material breach of the treaty: India issued a notice to Pakistan on 25th January 2023 through its commissioner to the bilateral Permanent Indus Commission suggesting that Pakistan should enter intergovernmental negotiations within 90 days to rectify the material breach of the treaty under Article 12(3) of IWT.
    • Government-to-government negotiation before accepting the involvement of a neutral expert: India defended its move by stating that it was adhering to the provision under the treaty for a graded mechanism for handling an issue of concern as it interpreted it. Therefore, it asked for a government-to-government negotiation before accepting the involvement of a neutral expert and finally taking it to a court of arbitration.

    Why such move?

    • Pakistan initially sought a neutral expert and then backtracked: In India, the perceived root cause for this present move is that Pakistan initially sought a neutral expert to examine the technical objections that it had raised on India’s Kishanganga and Ratle Hydropower projects but then backtracked and asked for adjudication through a court of arbitration.
    • Despite India’s efforts Pakistan refused to negotiate: Despite repeated efforts by India to negotiate at consecutive meetings of the Permanent Indus Commission, Pakistan refused to budge.
    • Pakistan has always preferred the route of arbitration: This is of consequence since Pakistan has always preferred the route of arbitration rather than a graded approach in the past with the involvement of a neutral expert before submitting to arbitration.
    • Pakistan’s repeated stance of seeking arbitration is prejudicial and pernicious: Indian strategic experts have called Pakistan’s repeated stance of seeking arbitration as prejudicial and pernicious while accusing the World Bank that it has allowed Pakistan to run riot in the last few years.

    The role of World Bank?

    • Brokered by WB: The long-standing Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a first-of-its-kind arrangement that was brokered by the World Bank between India and Pakistan for sharing the waters of the Indus system,
    • Signatory to the treaty to maintain ambivalence: The World Bank, as a signatory to the treaty, has maintained ambivalence and has yielded to both demands by appointing a neutral expert and a chairman for the court of arbitration.
    • Legal risk in duality of discussing and resolving: This has created a particularly confounding situation due to the initiation of two mutually-exclusive tracks for discussing and resolving the thorny issues. The Bank also recognised the practical and legal risks that this duality poses.

    Indus

    Mistrust and mismanagement

    • IWT concerns linked with National security and sovereignty: In the last two decades, both governments have raked up their concerns with the IWT, often coupling the Indus waters with national security and sovereignty with concerns emerging from the highest levels of governments at times.
    • Pakistan’s accusation: Pakistani officials and ministers on their part have issued statements accusing India of creating water woes in Pakistan by allowing sudden releases of water without prior notification as was the case in 2019.
    • Pakistan has also been apprehensive about two projects by India: The Baglihar and Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project (HEP), accusing India of acquiring the power to affect the timing and flow of water into Pakistan on rivers that belong to it under the provisions of IWT.
    • Misplaced developmental priorities of Pakistan: The politicisation of the IWT is systematic and has been occurring in a synchronised way, especially in Pakistan due to their misplaced developmental priorities.
    • Lack of ecosystems approach

    Conditions that underlie any successful transboundary water negotiation process

    1. Parties actively recognise their interdependencies;
    2. Parties agree to explore competing and often conflicting values and interests and invent creative options for mutual gains; and
    3. Parties agree to create mechanisms to monitor the implementation of the agreement and adapt the agreement to address new issues as they emerge.

    Climate change is often neglected in politicization of the water issues

    • The newer challenges of water governance are emerging. Water cannot be looked at as a stock of resource to be stored for human convenience, and released as per human will.
    • Today, whether it is in the Ganges or in the Indus delta regions, there is hardly any acknowledgement that upstream constructions and climate change are wreaking havoc on delta livelihoods.
    • Pakistan is so embroiled in the politics of water that they have become oblivious that they are losing a living heritage, the Palla fish The decline in catch is affecting the livelihoods of the fishing community.
    • Moreover, higher glacial melt due to global warming around the headwaters in the Himalayas is slated to increase flow in the short run but will be a threat to water security in the long run due to scarcities.
    • Therefore, all these bigger climatic threats and the threats created by the dam structures that can arrest the sediments and can cause upstream floods should be of bigger concern than mere politicisation of the water issues.

    Conclusion

    • On the whole, the lack of trust between nations has marred the hydropolitics of the Indus. The priority should have been settling disputes amicably by drawing strength and confidence from the past and preparing for an uncertain precipitation regime of the future due to climate change. The concerns of a much-needed integrated basin governance approach for the Indus must not be overshadowed by politics of mistrust and hatred.

  • Two years of Myanmar Coup and Concerns for India

    myanmar coup

    It is exactly two years since the Myanmar army seized power.

    Myanmar Coup: A quick recap

    • A coup in Myanmar began on the morning of 1 February 2021, when democratically elected members of the country’s ruling party, were deposed by the Tatmadaw—Myanmar’s military.
    • The coup occurred the day before the Parliament of Myanmar was due to swear in the members elected at the 2020 election, thereby preventing this from occurring.
    • Pivot leader Aung San Suu Kyi was detained, along with ministers, their deputies, and members of Parliament.

    India’s continuing policy tightrope in Myanmar

    • For some three decades, India has pursued a ‘Dual-Track Policy’ which essentially means doing business with the junta.
    • India shares a 1,600 km border with Myanmar along four NE states.
    • It has a maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal, the failure of the Myanmar state presents a foreign policy dilemma that it is struggling to resolve.
    • It has ruled over Myanmar for all but five years since 1990, with tea and sympathy for the pro-democracy forces.

    Why in news now?

    Ans. Pro-democracy armed rebellion within

    • Hundreds of armed pro-democracy civilian resistance groups (People’s Defence Forces) are fighting the junta and turning swathes of the country into no-go areas for the army.
    • In addition some among the two dozen ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) that have been fighting the Myanmar state for autonomy for the last seven decades, have joined hands with the PDFs.

    India’s concerns

    • Chinese inroads: Over the last two decades, as China with its deep pockets emerged as a rival in the region, engaging with the junta was also seen as a way to retain Indian influence in Myanmar.
    • No democratic restoration: Delhi had to calibrate this engagement during the “democratic transition” of the last decade and rebalance the dual track.
    • Narrowed interests: These are becoming apparent, even going by India’s narrowly defined national interests: border security management, and restricting China in Myanmar.
    • Limitations to strategy: India has limited to its old template of engagement— doing business with the military regime, encouraging it restore democracy, and offering sympathy to democratic forces.

    Recent success: Completion of Sittwe Port

    • In the first week of January, Sittwe port, developed by India as part of the Kaladan project, was ready for operation.
    • It is set to be inaugurated soon.

    Five ways in which India’s calculations have been upset

    • Bluff over connectivity: While maritime trade was one objective, the primary objective of this project, to provide alternate access to India’s landlocked north-east states, now seems like a bridge too far.
    • Huge refugee influx: Mizoram is hosting tens of thousands of refugees from the adjoining Chin state in Myanmar. Refugees have come into other Northeastern states, though in fewer numbers.
    • Clouds of terrorism: More dangerously, the recent bombing by the Myanmar Air Force of a Chin militia headquarters on the border with Mizoram, with shrapnel hitting the Indian side during this operation, triggered panic in the area.
    • Narcotics smuggling: Another potential cross-border spillovers is contained in the latest report of the UN Office for Drugs and Crime on Myanmar (Myanmar Opium Survey).
    • Supporting insurgents in India: Myanmar junta has recruited Indian insurgent group (IIGs) in regions adjoining Manipur and Nagaland to fight against the local PDFs and other groups.
    • Worsening of Rohingya crisis: The military cannot resolve the Rohingya crisis, another regional destabilizer.

    Way forward for India

    • Championing this cause in G20: India has projected its year-long presidency of the G20 as an opportunity to project the voice of the global south.
    • Extra-diplomatic engagement: India can open channels to the democratic forces and to some ethnic groups; it can work more actively with ASEAN; it could open an army-to-army channel with the junta; increase people-to-people channels; offer scholarships to Myanmar students like it did for Afghan students in a different era.
    • Ensuring fair elections: The junta is mulling elections later this year after rejigging the first-past-the-post system to proportional representation to undermine the NLD’s electoral might.

     

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