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GS Paper: GS1

  • Discuss how the changes in shape and sizes of continents and ocean basins of the planet take place due to tectonic movements of the crustal masses.

  • How does smart city in India, address the issues of urban poverty and distributive justice?

    The Smart Cities Mission aims to improve quality of life, economic opportunity, and sustainability through technology-enabled and citizen-centric urban governance.

    Role of smart cities in addressing issues of urban poverty and distributive justice

    Inclusive Urban Service Delivery – Area-based development with upgraded basic services in low-income neighbourhoods. Eg- 24×7 water supply in slum clusters using smart metering in Indore

    Affordable Housing – Convergence with PM Awas Yojana-Urban for in-situ redevelopment.

    Technology-Enabled Targeting of Welfare to reduce exclusion and leakage.

    Improved Urban Mobility for the Poor– Smart buses, integrated ticketing, and pedestrian-friendly streets. Eg- Ahmedabad’s BRTS

    Livelihood Generation and Skill Development– Skill hubs, incubation centres, and support for street vendors and MSMEs. Eg- “Smart Vending Zones” in Lucknow

    Digital Inclusion and Access- Citizen service centres, Public Wi-Fi, digital kiosks, enabling access to welfare, certificates, and grievance redressal.

    Participatory Governance through technology. Eg- Namma Bengaluru (Sahaaya 2.0) mobile app for reporting civic grievances in Bangalore

    Safety, Health, and Social Infrastructure – Smart surveillance, lighting, and emergency response improve safety for vulnerable groups.

    Environmental Justice– Eg- Flood mitigation, heat action plans, and green public spaces in dense areas.

    Transparency and Accountability in service delivery and outcomes. Eg- Public dashboards tracking water supply, waste management, and complaints.

    Challenges

    Area-Based Development Bias – Benefits concentrated in selected enclaves.

    Technology-Centric Design risks excluding digitally marginalised groups.

    Policy bias– Eg- Preference for visible projects over social infrastructure.

    Weak Community Participation – Low representation of slum dwellers in planning forums.

    Fragmented Governance – Eg- Overlaps among municipal bodies, SPVs, and parastatals.

    Affordability Concerns – Eg- Fare hikes in public transport affects daily-wage earners.

    Way Forward

    Scaling ‘SAHAYOG’ initiative of Odisha government at Pan India level

    Inclusive urban planning with affordable housing near workplaces

    In-situ slum upgrading instead of peripheral relocation

    With rights-based, inclusive, and people-centric urban policies, cities can instead become spaces of opportunity, dignity, and upward mobility for the urban poor.

    Effects of Globalization

    2018 – ‘Globalisation is generally said to promote cultural homogenisation but due to this cultural specificities appear to be strengthened in Indian society.’ Elucidate.

    Thomas Friedman, (The Lexus and the Olive Tree), defines globalization as the inexorable integration of markets, nation-states, and technologies, making it farther, faster, deeper, and cheaper.

    Globalization Promoting Cultural Homogenization

    McDonaldization- standardization of food habits through fast-food culture

    Linguistic Imperialism- English as the lingua franca of the corporate and digital world.

    Shift from traditional joint families to nuclear units – Western individualistic social structures.

    Consumerist Modernity- Eg- rise of shopping mall culture

    Celebration of Valentine’s Day, Mother’s Day, and Halloween over local seasonal festivals.

    Westernization of Attire- Eg- universalization of jeans and corporate suits

    Standardisation of Education and Knowledge – Eg- Emphasis on STEM, MBAs, and globally recognised certifications.

    Urban Architectural Uniformity – Glass towers and gated communities.

    Digital Culture Uniformity – Eg- Global viral challenges and influencer culture.

    Emphasis on individual rights like Right to Privacy etc

    Globalization Strengthening Cultural Specificities

    Glocalization (Think Global, Act Local) – Eg- McDonald’s menu in India is beef-free, while Domino’s serves Paneer Tikka Pizza.

    Revival of traditional cuisine. Eg- Makhana as “superfood”

    Revival of Regional Languages – Vernacular content reached a 55% share on OTT platforms. Eg- Sacred games or Panchayat show that “hyper-local” stories now have global audiences.

    Global Export of Culture – Eg- International Yoga Day and the global Ayurveda market have moved Indian traditional knowledge to the center of global wellness.

    The “One District One Product” (ODOP) initiative and GI tags for items like Kanchipuram Silk or Banarasi Zardozi have revitalized local artisan economies through e-commerce.

    Religious & Ritualistic Resurgence – Eg- use of social media and drones to broadcast the Kumbh Mela or Ganesh Chaturthi has made these “specificities” more visible and zealously observed

    Diaspora-Led Cultural Preservation – Eg- celebration of Diwali in white house or dandiya in New York’s times square

    “Ethnic” Fashion Boom- Globalization created a market for high-end traditional wear. Eg- FabIndia and designers like Sabyasachi have revitalized handlooms.

    Regional Media Growth as seen in the rise of Tollywood, Mollywood. Eg- global success of RRR or Kantara

    Greater policy focus on conservation of traditional knowledge. Eg- traditional knowledge Digital Library (TKDL)

    Deep-rooted pluralism, regional diversity, and civilisational depth ensure that globalisation in India produces Cultural Hybridization and enriches India’s cultural fabric.

  • ⁠What are Tsunamis? How and where are they formed? What are their consequences? Explain with examples.

    A tsunami is a series of large ocean waves generated by the sudden displacement of a massive volume of water, usually due to undersea earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, or meteorite impacts.

    Tsunami Formation Process

    Tectonic Plate Movement – Occurs mainly at subduction zones where one plate sinks beneath another.

    Sudden Seafloor Displacement due to vertical uplift or subsidence of seabed

    Energy Transfer to Water Column leading to upward push.

    Wave Propagation in Deep Ocean – Waves travel at high speeds (up to 700-800 km/h) with low height.

    Wave Shoaling Near Coast – As depth decreases, wavelength decreases and height increases

    Consequences of Tsunamis

    Social Consequences

    Mass casualties – Over 2,30,000 deaths in 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

    Large-scale displacement – Millions displaced in Indonesia and Sri Lanka (2004).

    Health crises – Water-borne diseases in relief camps.

    Psychological trauma – Long-term PTSD among survivors in Japan (2011).

    Economic Consequences

    Infrastructure destruction – Ports, roads, airports damaged. Eg- Severe infrastructure loss in Fukushima (2011).

    Loss of livelihoods – Fisheries and tourism collapse.

    High reconstruction costs – Japan’s 2011 losses estimated over $200 billion.

    Environmental Consequences

    Coastal ecosystem damage – Eg- Coral reef degradation in Andaman & Nicobar (2004).

    Soil salinization – Agricultural lands turned infertile.

    Secondary disasters. Eg- Fukushima nuclear accident (2011).

    Groundwater Contamination- Saltwater and sewage penetrate freshwater aquifers

    While they cannot be prevented, early warning systems, ecological buffers, and resilient coastal planning can significantly reduce their human and economic toll.

  • Rakhigarhi Skeletons Undergo DNA Analysis & Facial Reconstruction

    Why in News?

    The Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) has sent nearly 5,000-year-old skeletons excavated from Rakhigarhi, Haryana, for DNA analysis and facial reconstruction to gain insights into the people of the Harappan Civilization.

    Key Highlights

    • Five skeletons recovered:
      • 3 females and 2 males (preliminary assessment).
      • Estimated age: 30-40 years.
    • Scientific Institutions Involved:
      • Anthropological Survey of India (AnSI), Kolkata: Anthropological study and facial reconstruction.
      • Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeosciences (BSIP), Lucknow: Ancient DNA analysis.
    • Objectives of the Study:
      • Determine ancestry and genetic profile.
      • Identify cause of death and possible diseases.
      • Reconstruct facial features and physical appearance.
      • Estimate height, lifestyle, and social status.
      • Reconstruct the palaeo-environment of the Harappan period.
    • Three additional disturbed burials with fragmentary remains were also discovered at Mound No. 7, the site’s ancient cemetery.

    About Rakhigarhi

    • Located in Hisar district, Haryana.
    • Largest known site of the Indus Valley (Harappan) Civilization.
    • Flourished during 2600-1900 BCE (Mature Harappan Phase).
    • Known for Planned urban settlement, Drainage system, Granaries, Cemetery remains, and Craft production

    Ancient DNA (aDNA)

    • DNA extracted from ancient bones, teeth, or other biological remains.
    • Used to study Human migration, Evolution, Population genetics, Ancient diseases

    [2021] Which one of the following ancient towns is well-known for its elaborate system of water harvesting and management by building a series of dams and channelizing water into connected reservoirs?

    [A] Dholavira

    [B] Kalibangan

    [C] Rakhigarhi

    [D] Ropar

  • Mohenjo-daro’s “Dancing Girl”: History, Identity and the Debate on Modesty

    Why in News?

    The National Council of Educational Research and Training (NCERT) restored the original image of the iconic Mohenjo-daro bronze figurine in a Class 9 textbook after an earlier version had shaded its bare torso, reviving debates over cultural representation and historical interpretation.

    About the Figurine

    • A bronze statuette discovered at Mohenjo-daro (1926), dating to the Indus Valley Civilization (c. 2500 BCE).
    • About 10.5 cm tall, created using the lost-wax casting technique.
    • Depicts a young female figure adorned with numerous bangles and ornaments.

    Why is its Identity Contested?

    • Archaeologist John Marshall identified it as a “nautch girl” (dancing girl) based on posture and appearance.
    • However, scholars argue there is no archaeological evidence that she was a professional dancer.
    • Historian Upinder Singh notes that the figure “may not have been dancing at all.”
    • Archaeologist Gregory L. Possehl also questioned the dancer interpretation.

    Partition and Ownership Debate

    • After Partition, around 12,000 Harappan artefacts in Delhi became subjects of dispute between India and Pakistan.
    • Both countries agreed to a 50:50 division of artefacts from Mohenjo-daro and Chanhu-daro.
    • Pakistan chose the “Priest King” figurine over the Dancing Girl, reportedly due to concerns over the latter’s nudity.
    • The Dancing Girl remains in India and is viewed by many scholars as part of the shared heritage of South Asia.

    Significance

    • Demonstrates the advanced metallurgical skills of the Indus Valley Civilization.
    • Highlights how colonial interpretations and contemporary moral values shape our understanding of the past.
    • Reflects debates on heritage ownership, gender, modesty, and cultural identity.

    Value Addition

    • Lost-Wax Casting Technique: A metal casting process in which a wax model is covered with clay; molten metal replaces the melted wax to create the final sculpture.
    • The Dancing Girl is one of the most iconic artistic representations of the Indus Valley Civilization.

    [2025] The famous female figurine known as ‘Dancing Girl’, found at Mohenjo-daro, is made of

    [A] carnelian

    [B] clay

    [C] bronze

    [D] gold

  • India’s Monsoon Deficit and Super El Niño Concerns

    Why in News?

    India’s southwest monsoon rainfall deficit widened to 35%, with Central India recording a 61% deficit, as the monsoon stalled before reaching Mumbai. The Centre has placed around 150 to 200 districts under priority monitoring and directed States to prepare crop-wise contingency plans.

    Key Highlights

    • All-India rainfall deficit: 35%.
    • Regional deficits: Northwest India: +5%, East & Northeast India: -43%, Central India: -61%, and Southern Peninsula: -14%
    • Monsoon reached Kerala on 4 June, but its advance weakened near Mumbai.
    • Around 150 to 200 districts under priority monitoring.
    • Government encouraging a shift towards cotton and pulses.
    • Reservoir storage stood at 30.4% of capacity, compared to 25.1% average during previous El Niño years.

    Why has the Monsoon Stalled?

    • Anticyclonic circulation north of Mumbai blocked monsoon progression.
    • Influence of mid-latitude westerly systems.
    • Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in an unfavourable phase.
    • Next monsoon pulse may strengthen with a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal.

    El Niño Concerns

    • El Niño: Periodic warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that generally suppresses the Indian monsoon.
    • U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): Issued El Niño advisory on 11 June. 63% probability of a very strong El Niño by winter.
    • World Meteorological Organization (WMO): 80% probability of El Niño developing between June and August.
    • India Meteorological Department (IMD):
      • Seasonal rainfall forecast revised from 92% to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
      • Assigned a 60% probability of a deficient monsoon, the most pessimistic pre-season forecast since 2015.
      • No positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) expected to offset El Niño effects.

    Significance

    • Threatens kharif sowing and agricultural output.
    • May increase food inflation and rural distress.
    • Necessitates timely contingency planning and climate-resilient agriculture.
    • Highlights the need for improved water management and drought preparedness.

    Value Addition

    • Long Period Average (LPA): Average rainfall during 1971-2020, used as the benchmark for monsoon forecasts.
    • Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): Eastward-moving atmospheric disturbance influencing monsoon activity.
    • Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean that can influence Indian monsoon rainfall.

    [2017] With reference to ‘Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)’ sometimes mentioned in the news while forecasting Indian monsoon, which of the following statements is/are correct?
    1. IOD phenomenon is characterised by a difference in sea surface temperature between tropical Western Indian Ocean and tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean.
    2. An IOD phenomenon can influence an El Nino’s impact on the monsoon.
    Select the correct answer using the code given below:

    [A] 1 only

    [B] 2 only

    [C] Both 1 and 2

    [D] Neither 1 nor 2

  • ‘Super El Niño’ forms in Pacific: Why 2027 is likely to be the hottest year on record

    Why in the News?

    The emergence of Super El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean has become a major concern because it coincides with India’s crucial southwest monsoon season. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially confirmed the development of El Niño and warned that it is expected to strengthen further during the monsoon months. This

    How Has El Niño Developed During the Current Monsoon Season?

    1. IMD Confirmation: El Niño conditions have officially emerged in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    2. Strengthening Trend: IMD expects the phenomenon to intensify further during the ongoing southwest monsoon season.
    3. NOAA Assessment: The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) earlier confirmed El Niño emergence.
    4. Peak Projection: NOAA projects the event to peak during November-January.
    5. Intensity Forecast: The event may approach the “very strong” category.

    ENSO Threshold

    1. Niño 3.4 Region: El Niño is declared when sea surface temperature anomalies exceed +0.5°C in the Niño 3.4 region.
      1. The Niño 3.4 region (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W) is the primary equatorial Pacific area used by scientists to monitor, define, and predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). 
    2. Current Reading: Weekly Niño 3.4 Index reached +0.7°C.
    3. Eastern Pacific Warming: Temperature anomalies reached +2.1°C in the easternmost Pacific region.

    What Makes the Current El Niño Different from Previous Events?

    Emerging “Super El Niño” Concerns

    1. NOAA Forecast: El Niño has officially formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is likely to strengthen significantly in the coming months.
    2. Historical Significance: Scientists have projected that the current event could rank among the strongest El Niño episodes recorded since 1950.
    3. Probability Estimate: NOAA estimates a 63% probability that the event will intensify into one of the largest El Niño events in the historical record.
    4. Transition Phase: The current event follows the end of La Niña conditions earlier in 2026.
    5. Global Warning: The UN Secretary-General António Guterres has described the phenomenon as an “urgent climate warning.”

    Why is it Being Called a “Super El Niño”?

    1. Exceptional Ocean Warming: Unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures are accelerating ENSO development.
    2. Early Intensification: Forecast models indicate stronger warming developing earlier than normally expected.
    3. Historical Comparison: Scientists have compared the event to major El Niño episodes such as 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.
    4. Global Temperature Impact: Multiple climate models suggest that 2027 could become the hottest year ever recorded globally.

    What is ENSO and How Does It Operate?

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    1. Climate Oscillation: Naturally occurring ocean-atmosphere phenomenon over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    2. Recurrence: Appears every 2-7 years.
    3. Phases: El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña.

    El Niño

    1. Oceanic Condition: The abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
    2. Mechanism: Trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to push east toward South America.
    3. Indian Impact: Usually suppresses monsoon rainfall.

    La Niña

    1. Oceanic Condition: The abnormal cooling of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
    2. Mechanism: Trade winds strengthen, pushing warm water toward Asia and pulling cold water up to the surface off South America.
    3. Indian Impact: Generally supports stronger monsoon rainfall.

    Why Could 2027 Become the Hottest Year on Record?

    Interaction Between El Niño and Global Warming

    1. Natural Climate Driver: El Niño releases large amounts of heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere.
    2. Anthropogenic Warming: Human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have already raised baseline global temperatures.
    3. Compounding Effect: El Niño adds temporary warming on top of long-term climate change trends.
    4. WMO Forecast: Above-average global temperatures are expected between June and August, with effects continuing through November.

    Climate Consequences

    1. Temperature Extremes: Higher likelihood of record-breaking temperatures globally.
    2. Heatwaves: Increased frequency and intensity across multiple continents.
    3. Hydrological Extremes: Simultaneous occurrence of droughts and floods in different regions.
    4. Wildfire Risk: Elevated probability of large-scale forest fires in drought-prone regions.

    Why Does the Impact of El Niño Differ Across Regions?

    Not Every El Niño Produces the Same Outcomes

    1. Climate Variability: Every El Niño develops differently in terms of intensity, timing and ocean-atmosphere interaction.
    2. NOAA Observation: Each El Niño leaves a unique climatic imprint on global weather systems.
    3. Regional Factors: Local ocean temperatures, atmospheric circulation and other climate oscillations influence outcomes.

    Importance of Forecasting

    1. Advanced Monitoring: Improved ocean observation systems enhance prediction capabilities.
    2. Early Warning Systems: Better forecasting enables governments to prepare for disasters and agricultural losses.
    3. Climate Preparedness: Supports adaptation planning and resource allocation.

    How Could Super El Niño Reshape Global Weather Patterns?

    North America

    1. Atlantic Hurricane Suppression: Reduced hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean.
    2. Pacific Hurricane Intensification: Increased cyclone activity over the Pacific.
    3. US Winter Impact: Southern United States may experience wetter conditions and flooding.
    4. Pacific Northwest: Warmer and drier weather expected.

    South America

    1. Flood Risk: Northern Peru and southern Ecuador face heightened flooding threats.
    2. Heavy Rainfall: Western South America may experience excessive precipitation.
    3. Temperature Rise: Greater likelihood of unusually warm summers.

    East and Northeast Africa

    1. Weather Whiplash: Rapid shifts between drought and extreme rainfall.
    2. Flood Hazards: Increased flood risk in vulnerable regions.
    3. Agricultural Stress: High uncertainty for rain-fed agriculture.

    India

    1. Monsoon Deficit: Higher probability of below-normal rainfall.
    2. Heatwaves: Greater frequency and intensity.
    3. Agricultural Losses: Increased stress on kharif crops and water resources.

    Indonesia and Vietnam

    1. Drought Risk: Rainfall shortages may affect major rice-producing regions.
    2. Food Security Concerns: Potential reduction in agricultural output.

    Australia

    1. Heatwaves: Higher temperature anomalies.
    2. Wildfires: Elevated bushfire risk.
    3. Drought Conditions: Reduced precipitation in several regions.

    Why Does El Niño Affect India’s Southwest Monsoon?

    1. Walker Circulation Shift: Alters atmospheric circulation responsible for moisture transport.
    2. Reduced Moisture Transport: Weakens monsoon winds reaching the Indian subcontinent.
    3. Rainfall Deficiency: Leads to below-normal precipitation across large parts of India.
    4. Temperature Rise: Reduced cloud cover increases surface temperatures.

    IMD Forecast

    1. Seasonal Deficit: Rainfall expected to be 10% below normal.
    2. Spatial Distribution: Most regions likely to receive below-normal rainfall.
    3. Exception: Northeastern India expected to receive relatively normal rainfall.

    How Do Rainfall Patterns Change During El Niño Years?

    Regional Variability

    1. Northeastern India: Often receives normal rainfall.
    2. Extreme Southern India: May receive near-normal rainfall.
    3. Rest of India: Usually experiences rainfall deficits.

    Temperature Effects

    1. Heat Intensification: Reduced rainfall contributes to rising temperatures.
    2. Extended Heat Conditions: Higher risk of heatwaves and moisture stress.

    What Role Does the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Play?

    Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

    1. Definition: Difference in sea surface temperatures between western and eastern Indian Ocean.
    2. Phases: Positive, Neutral, Negative.

    Current Status

    1. Neutral Phase: Expected to remain neutral during the southwest monsoon.
    2. 2026 Outlook: Neutral conditions expected to continue for most of the year.

    Significance

    1. Monsoon Modulator: Positive IOD can sometimes offset El Niño-induced monsoon weakness.
    2. Current Concern: Neutral IOD may not provide compensatory support.

    What Oceanic Changes Are Being Observed Around India?

    Bay of Bengal Warming

    1. Temperature Increase: Significant positive sea surface temperature anomalies observed.
    2. Impact: Supports atmospheric instability and temperature rise.

    Arabian Sea Warming

    1. Above-Normal Temperatures: Positive SST anomalies recorded.
    2. Climate Consequence: Enhances extreme weather variability.

    Eastern Indian Ocean

    1. Widespread Warming: Above-normal SST conditions observed during May

    How Could Super El Niño Trigger a Global Food Security Crisis?

    Agricultural Disruptions

    1. Crop Vulnerability: Maize, rice and several staple crops are highly sensitive to drought conditions.
    2. Production Risks: Major agricultural regions may experience reduced productivity.
    3. Market Volatility: Supply shocks can increase global food prices.

    Countries at Risk

    1. India: Rainfed agriculture vulnerable to monsoon deficits.
    2. South Africa: Drought threatens maize production.
    3. Indonesia: Rice production risks increase.
    4. Vietnam: Potential impacts on rice exports.
    5. Brazil: Rainfall variability may affect agricultural output.

    Global Consequences

    1. Food Inflation: Rising prices of cereals and food commodities.
    2. Supply Chain Disruptions: Agricultural trade flows may be affected.
    3. Livelihood Risks: Farmers and vulnerable populations face income losses.

    Why Is El Niño a Concern for India’s Economy and Agriculture?

    1. Agriculture
      1. Crop Stress: Reduces soil moisture availability.
      2. Rainfed Farming: Increases vulnerability of kharif crops.
      3. Yield Losses: Impacts rice, pulses, oilseeds, and coarse cereals.
    2. Water Security
      1. Reservoir Recharge: Limits replenishment of water bodies.
      2. Groundwater Stress: Increases extraction pressures.
    3. Inflation
      1. Food Prices: Reduced agricultural output may trigger food inflation.
      2. Supply Constraints: Affect agricultural supply chains.
    4. Energy
      1. Power Demand: Rising temperatures increase cooling requirements.
      2. Hydropower: Lower reservoir levels affect generation capacity.

    What Lessons Can Be Drawn from the 2015-16 Super El Niño?

    India’s Experience

    1. Rainfall Deficit: India received only 86% of Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall.
    2. Agricultural Stress: Several states experienced drought-like conditions.
    3. Water Scarcity: Reservoir levels and groundwater recharge declined.

    Key Lesson

    1. ENSO Alone is Not Deterministic: Strong El Niño events do not always produce identical outcomes.
    2. Role of Other Drivers: Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Eurasian snow cover and regional ocean temperatures also influence monsoon performance.

    Conclusion

    The emerging El Niño highlights the growing interaction between natural climate variability and global warming. With risks of weaker monsoons, heatwaves, food insecurity and extreme weather events, India must strengthen climate-resilient agriculture, early warning systems, water management and disaster preparedness to reduce vulnerability and build long-term resilience.

    Value Addition

    YearCharacteristicsGlobal Impact
    1982-83One of strongest recordedDroughts, floods, crop losses
    1997-98Extreme warmingMajor global weather disruptions
    2015-16Strongest of recent decadesGlobal temperature records broken
    2026-27*Potential Super El NiñoRisk of hottest year in recorded history

    Positive vs Negative IOD

    Positive IODNegative IOD
    Warmer western Indian OceanWarmer eastern Indian Ocean
    Supports Indian monsoonWeakens monsoon
    Can offset El Niño impactCan worsen El Niño impact

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2015] How far do you agree that the behavior of the Indian monsoon has been changing due to humanizing landscapes? Discuss.

    Linkage: The PYQ examines changing monsoon patterns and the factors affecting rainfall variability in India. The article discusses how the emerging Super El Niño could weaken the southwest monsoon, alter rainfall distribution, intensify heatwaves and interact with climate change to reshape India’s monsoon behaviour.

  • Should India incentivise bigger families

    Why in the News?

    Andhra Pradesh recently announced cash incentives of ₹30,000-₹50,000 for women having a third or fourth child. India’s demographic policy debate has entered a new phase as several states are considering incentives for larger families after decades of promoting smaller families. The trigger is the sustained decline in fertility rates, with India’s TFR falling to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1, and states such as Andhra Pradesh recording TFRs as low as 1.3.

    What is the Demographic transition?

    1. It refers to the shift from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as societies develop economically and socially. 
    2. Historically, fertility declines have accompanied rising incomes, urbanisation, female education, and workforce participation. 
    3. India has now entered a phase where fertility rates have fallen below replacement levels, prompting discussions on whether public policy should move from population control to population stabilisation or even population encouragement in certain regions.

    Is India Experiencing a Significant Fertility Decline?

    1. Below-Replacement Fertility: India’s Total Fertility Rate has declined to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1.
    2. Sharp Regional Variations: Several southern states have reached extremely low fertility levels. Andhra Pradesh’s TFR has fallen to around 1.3.
    3. Long-Term Trend: Fertility decline has been occurring steadily since economic liberalisation and social transformation accelerated.
    4. Demographic Transition: Falling fertility reflects increasing urbanisation, higher female education levels, delayed marriages, and changing family preferences.
    5. Individualistic Social Behaviour: Smaller family norms have become socially embedded and are difficult to reverse through financial incentives alone.

    What Factors Are Driving Calls for Larger Families?

    1. Population Ageing: Falling fertility rates increase the share of elderly citizens relative to the working-age population.
    2. Shrinking Workforce Concerns: Fewer births today may reduce future labour force availability.
    3. Federal Representation Debate: Concerns exist that states with slower population growth may face reduced political representation after future delimitation exercises.
    4. Economic Sustainability: A shrinking working-age population may affect savings, investments, productivity, and economic growth.
    5. Dependency Burden: Lower worker-to-retiree ratios increase pressure on pension systems and healthcare expenditure.

    Can Financial Incentives Reverse Fertility Decline?

    1. Limited International Success: Evidence suggests fertility incentives have produced only modest improvements in fertility rates.
    2. Behavioural Transformation: Fertility decisions are increasingly influenced by lifestyle choices rather than financial considerations.
    3. Rising Cost of Child-Rearing: Education, healthcare, housing, and childcare expenses discourage larger families.
    4. Women’s Workforce Participation: Increased female employment often correlates with delayed childbirth and smaller family sizes.
    5. Economic Trade-Offs: Families increasingly prefer investing more resources in fewer children.
    6. Structural Constraints: Fertility decline is linked to broader social and economic transformations that cannot be reversed solely through cash transfers.
    7. Andhra Pradesh Initiative: The state announced incentives of ₹30,000-50,000 for women having a third or fourth child to encourage larger families.

    What Lessons Emerge from International Experience?

    Poland

    1. Cash Incentives: Introduced financial support programmes to encourage childbirth.
    2. Limited Impact: Fertility rates improved marginally but failed to sustain long-term reversal.

    Hungary

    1. Tax Benefits: Implemented extensive tax incentives and family support policies.
    2. Mixed Outcomes: Temporary increases in births were observed, but fertility remained below replacement level.

    Sweden and France

    1. Comprehensive Family Support: Combined childcare facilities, parental leave, and work-life balance measures.
    2. Better Results: Recorded relatively higher fertility rates compared to many European countries.

    South Korea

    1. Massive Public Spending: Invested heavily in pro-natalist policies.
    2. Persistent Low Fertility: Fertility rates remain among the lowest globally.

    Singapore and Japan

    1. Demographic Ageing Challenge: Despite policy interventions, ageing and low fertility continue to persist.

    Why Is Fertility Decline Difficult to Reverse?

    1. Socio-Cultural Change: Fertility behaviour changes permanently after societies become economically advanced.
    2. Urbanisation: Urban lifestyles increase living costs and reduce preference for larger families.
    3. Career Aspirations: Education and employment opportunities alter family planning decisions.
    4. Delayed Marriage: Rising marriage age directly reduces fertility levels.
    5. Changing Family Structure: Nuclear families increasingly replace traditional joint-family support systems.
    6. Quality-over-Quantity Preference: Parents prioritise greater investment in fewer children.

    How Does Fertility Decline Affect India’s Federal Structure?

    1. Uneven Demographic Transition: Different states are at different stages of demographic transition.
    2. Divergent Economic Needs: Younger states may prioritise job creation, while ageing states may prioritise pensions and healthcare.
    3. Policy Asymmetry: States may require different social and economic policies based on demographic profiles.
    4. Delimitation Concerns: States with lower population growth fear reduced parliamentary representation.
    5. Inter-State Demographic Imbalances: Population trends could reshape political and fiscal dynamics within the federation.

    Does India Face an Immediate Labour Shortage?

    1. Current Labour Surplus: India continues to have a large working-age population.
    2. Low Female Labour Participation: A substantial share of working-age women remain outside the workforce
    3. Labour Market Vacancies: Some vacancies persist despite available labour, indicating skill mismatches rather than absolute shortages.
    4. Underemployment Challenge: Employment generation remains a larger concern than workforce scarcity.
    5. Demographic Dividend Window: India continues to benefit from a sizeable youth population.

    Can Migration Offset Regional Population Decline?

    1. Labour Mobility: Interstate migration can help address workforce shortages in ageing states.
    2. Economic Integration: Workers move towards regions with greater employment opportunities.
    3. Historical Experience: Migration has supported economic growth in rapidly developing regions.
    4. Political Sensitivities: Large-scale migration may generate social and political concerns in receiving state
    5. Labour Market Adjustment: Migration often serves as a natural response to demographic imbalances.

    Is Population Growth the Best Solution to Ageing?

    1. Healthcare Investments: Strong healthcare systems can mitigate ageing-related challenges.
    2. Pension Reforms: Sustainable pension systems reduce dependency burdens.
    3. Human Capital Development: A skilled workforce can compensate for slower population growth.
    4. Productivity Enhancement: Technological advancement can offset labour shortages.
    5. Silver Economy: Ageing populations create new economic sectors related to healthcare, caregiving, and elderly services.
    6. Alternative Policy Choice: Investment in education, skills, and productivity may yield better outcomes than incentivising higher fertility.

    Conclusion

    India’s fertility decline reflects an advanced stage of demographic transition rather than a population crisis. While ageing and workforce concerns require attention, international experience shows that fertility incentives alone have limited impact. India’s priority should be strengthening human capital, productivity, healthcare, and social security to ensure sustainable demographic and economic growth.

    Value Addition

    Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

    Stage I

    1. High birth rate and high death rate.
    2. Population growth remains low.

    Stage II

    1. Death rate declines due to healthcare improvements.
    2. Population grows rapidly.

    Stage III

    1. Birth rate starts declining.
    2. Population growth slows.

    Stage IV

    1. Low birth rate and low death rate.
    2. Stable population.

    Stage V

    1. Birth rate falls below death rate.
    2. Population ageing and decline begin.

    India: Transitioning between Stage III and Stage IV.

    Replacement Level Fertility

    1. Average number of children required per woman to maintain population stability.
    2. Generally estimated at 2.1 children per woman.

    National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5)

    1. India’s TFR: 2.0
    2. Several southern states have fertility rates significantly below replacement level.
    3. Reflects continuing demographic transition.

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2024] What is the concept of a ‘demographic winter’? Is the world moving towards such a situation? Elaborate

    Linkage: The PYQ directly examines declining fertility, ageing populations, and shrinking workforce concerns. The article debates whether India should respond to below-replacement fertility by incentivising larger families to avoid a future demographic winter.

  • Birsa Munda and the Evolution of Adivasi Identity and Rights

    Why in the news?

    On 9 June 2026, the death anniversary of Birsa Munda was observed across Jharkhand. Several tribal organisations pledged to protect his legacy amid renewed debates over the delisting of tribal converts from the Scheduled Tribes list, bringing Birsa’s ideas on Adivasi identity, land rights, and self-rule back into focus.

    Who was Birsa Munda?

    • Born: 15 November 1875, Ulihatu (present-day Jharkhand).
    • Died: 9 June 1900, Ranchi Jail.
    • Belonged to the Munda tribe.
    • Revered as: Dharti Aba (“Father of the Earth”) and “Bhagwan” by followers.
    • Tribal leader, social reformer, religious preacher, and anti-colonial freedom fighter.

    Ulgulan (The Great Tumult)

    • Tribal uprising led by Birsa Munda during 1899-1900.
    • “Ulgulan” means Great Tumult.
    • Centred in the Chotanagpur Plateau.

    Causes

    • Encroachment on tribal lands.
    • Exploitative practices of:
      • British administration,
      • Zamindars,
      • Moneylenders,
      • “Dikus” (non-tribal outsiders).
    • Erosion of traditional tribal institutions.
    • Missionary influence and socio-cultural disruptions.

    Objectives

    • Restoration of traditional land rights.
    • End of British rule.
    • Expulsion of exploitative outsiders.
    • Establishment of tribal self-rule.

    Concept of “Disum”

    • Refers to self-rule or autonomous tribal governance.
    • Reflected Birsa’s vision of Adivasi sovereignty, Community control over resources, and Cultural autonomy.

    Dombari Buru

    • Major centre of the Ulgulan.
    • In January 1899, thousands gathered to assert tribal rights.
    • British troops opened fire on the gathering.
    • Remembered in Adivasi memory as a massacre.
    • Became a symbol of tribal resistance.

    Khuntkatti System

    • Traditional Munda system of collective land ownership.
    • Village lands belonged to descendants of original settlers called Khuntkattidars.
    • Combined land rights with customary governance.

    Chotanagpur Tenancy (CNT) Act, 1908

    Background

    • Enacted following decades of tribal resistance, including Birsa’s movement.

    Objectives

    • Prevent transfer of tribal land to non-tribals.
    • Legally recognise customary tribal land rights.
    • Protect Khuntkatti tenure systems.

    [2020] With reference to the history of India, “Ulgulan” or the Great Trumult is the description of which of the following events?

    (a) The Revolt of 1857
    (b) The Mappila Rebellion of 1921
    (c) The Indigo Revolt of 1859-60
    (d) Birsa Munda’s Revolt of 1899-1900

  • First World Yogasana Championship 2026

    Why in the news?

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the first-ever World Yogasana Championship in Ahmedabad through a video message.

    Key Highlights

    • Event: First World Yogasana Championship 2026.
    • Venue: Ahmedabad, Gujarat.
    • Significance: Marks a new phase in the global recognition of Yogasana as a competitive sport.
    • Prime Minister’s remarks:
      • Expressed confidence that Yogasana may eventually be included in:
        • Olympics
        • Other multi-sport international events.
    • Timing:
      • Championship organized ahead of:
        • International Day of Yoga celebrated annually on 21 June.
    • Theme of International Yoga Day 2026: “Yoga for Healthy Ageing”.
    • Global support for Yoga:
      • Around 190 countries supported India’s proposal at the United Nations for International Yoga Day.
    • “Yoga 365” campaign:
      • Initiative of the Ministry of Ayush to encourage daily yoga practice.
    • Opportunities highlighted:
      • Careers for:
        • Athletes
        • Trainers
        • Sports scientists
        • Researchers
        • Event managers

    About International Day of Yoga

    • Declared by the United Nations
    • First celebrated on 21 June 2015.
    • Origin: Proposal introduced by India in the UN General Assembly in 2014.
    • Objective: Promote physical, mental, and spiritual well-being through yoga.

    [2025] Consider the following statements in respect of the first Kho Kho World Cup:
    I. The event was held in Delhi, India.
    II. Indian men beat Nepal with a score of 78-40 in the final to become the World Champion in men category.
    III. Indian women beat Nepal with a score of 54-36 in the final to become the World Champion in women category.
    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

    [A] I only

    [B] II and III only

    [C] I and III only

    [D] I, II and III