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GS Paper: GS2

  • India must address illegal emigration with empathy and urgency

    Why in the News?

    The U.S. deporting dozens of Indians for being illegal immigrants is not unexpected or new.

    What are the reasons behind it? 

    • Illegal Immigration Enforcement: The deportations are part of intensified Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations aimed at identifying, detaining, and deporting individuals who are in the U.S. without proper documentation.
    • Large-Scale Illegal Migration – Many Indians, particularly from Gujarat, Punjab, and Haryana, attempt to enter the U.S. illegally through Mexico and Canada due to economic distress and job shortages.

    What is the potential impact of US immigration policies on Indian students and professionals?

    • Legal Migration Channels: The Indian government is keen on ensuring that legal migration channels to the U.S. for Indian nationals are not restricted by the U.S. administration. These legal routes include H-1B visas for skilled workers and visas for students.
    • Deterrence of Illegal Migration: Both the U.S. and India are engaged in deterring illegal migration while creating more avenues for legal migration from India to the U.S.
    • Increased Deportations: Deportation of Indian nationals from the United States surged by 400% in the past three years. In 2024, 1,529 Indians were deported, a significant jump from 292 in 2021.
    • Impact on Undocumented Indians: Approximately 725,000 undocumented Indians reside in the U.S., primarily from Punjab and Gujarat. As of November of the previous year, 20,407 undocumented Indians were either facing final removal orders or were held in detention centers of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

    How will this impact the USA? 

    • Labour Market Disruptions:  Deportations can create labor shortages in sectors reliant on immigrant workers, such as construction and hospitality. (Example: Indian workers contribute significantly to the U.S. IT and service industries.)
    • Diplomatic Tensions:  Large-scale deportations may strain U.S.-India relations, especially if handled insensitively. (Example: The use of military flights for deportations sparked protests from other countries like Colombia.)

    How might the deportation of Indian nationals affect the political landscape in India? 

    • Domestic Political Fallout: The deportation of thousands of Indians could become a political issue, with opposition parties blaming the government for failing to create adequate job opportunities at home.
    • Diplomatic Challenges: The mass deportations could strain India-U.S. relations, particularly if deportees face harsh treatment, triggering diplomatic interventions.
    • Public Backlash: The use of military flights and reports of inhumane treatment, such as shackling, may create anti-U.S. sentiment among the Indian public.
    • State-Level Political Implications: States with high numbers of deportees (Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana) may experience political unrest, with local governments facing pressure to provide jobs and reintegration support.
    • Rise in Anti-Illegal Migration Policies: The Indian government may be compelled to introduce stricter measures against illegal immigration and human trafficking networks, affecting those attempting to migrate illegally.
    • Impact on Indian Diaspora Relations: The large-scale return of undocumented migrants could impact remittances, economic support for families, and the broader perception of Indian migrants globally.

    What should India do? (Way forward)

    • Strengthen Domestic Employment Opportunities: Implement targeted economic reforms, boost job creation in high-migration states (Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana), and address the root causes driving illegal migration, such as agricultural distress and unemployment.
    • Enhance Public Awareness & Legal Migration Channels: Conduct awareness campaigns on the risks of illegal immigration while expanding safe and legal pathways for skilled migration through bilateral agreements with the U.S. and other countries.
    • Engage in Diplomatic & Policy Advocacy: Strengthen diplomatic efforts to ensure fair treatment of deported individuals, negotiate favourable visa policies for Indian professionals and students, and collaborate with the U.S. on workforce mobility solutions.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q ‘Indian diaspora has a decisive role to play in the politics and economy of America and European Countries’. Comment with examples. (UPSC IAS/2020)

  • [5th February 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: The U.S.’s WHO exit, a chance to reshape global health

    PYQ Relevance:

    Q) Critically examine the role of WHOin providing global health security during the Covid-19 pandemic. (UPSC CSE 2020)

     

    Mentor’s Comment: UPSC mains have always focused on Bridging Healthcare Gaps (2015), and WHO Initiatives (2020).

    The US is the largest contributor to WHO, providing about 18% of its funding. The withdrawal is expected to jeopardize critical health programs, particularly those addressing tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, and other health emergencies.

    Today’s editorial emphasizes the need for member states to collaborate more effectively in light of reduced US involvement, ensuring that global health priorities remain addressed despite funding challenges. This content can be used to present the significance of multilateral collaboration and its impact on international policy and governance with respect to Health.

    _

    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    After the USA’s withdrawal from WHO, it is time for the countries in the global south to support WHO and initiate collaborative actions to reshape the global health agenda.

    What are the Potential Impacts of the US Withdrawal from WHO?

    • Disruption of Funding and Programs: The US contributes nearly 18% of WHO’s budget (~$1 billion annually), supporting critical health programs like immunization, tuberculosis control, and pandemic preparedness.
      • The withdrawal will likely disrupt ongoing projects aimed at combating health challenges such as HIV/AIDS and polio eradication.
    • Weakened Global Health Response: WHO’s ability to coordinate responses to health crises will be significantly impaired without US support. This includes reduced resources for disease surveillance and emergency operations in regions facing outbreaks or health threats.
    • Impact on Global Health Leadership and Collaboration: The absence of the US may create a leadership vacuum within WHO, allowing other nations (e.g., China) to increase their influence.
      • This shift could alter international collaboration dynamics and lead to fragmented approaches to public health challenges.
    • Repercussions for Low-Income Countries: Marginalized communities in low-income countries may face disproportionate impacts due to reduced funding from WHO. These communities rely heavily on WHO for access to essential health services, and the withdrawal signals a deprioritization of global health initiatives, exacerbating existing inequalities.
      • The overall effectiveness of global health initiatives may decline as WHO struggles with funding constraints and could slow long-term progress toward key health goals, such as disease eradication and comprehensive vaccination programs, ultimately affecting global health security.

    How might the withdrawal reshape international health diplomacy?

    • Shift in Global Health Leadership: The absence of the US may create a leadership vacuum within WHO, potentially allowing countries like China to increase their influence in global health governance.
      • This shift could alter the dynamics of international collaboration, with other nations stepping up to fill the void left by the US.
    • Increased Geopolitical Tensions: The withdrawal could intensify competition between the US and China for influence in global health matters.
      • China’s initiatives, such as the Health Silk Road, may gain traction as it seeks to position itself as a leader in global health, thereby reshaping alliances and partnerships among countries.
    • Impact on Multilateral Cooperation: The US’s exit may weaken multilateral cooperation on critical health issues, leading to fragmented responses to global health challenges.
      • Countries may become less willing to collaborate on shared health threats without US leadership, which could hinder effective pandemic preparedness and response efforts.
    • Loss of Diplomatic Leverage: By withdrawing, the US relinquishes its role as a key influencer in shaping global health policies and initiatives.
      • This could diminish its ability to advocate for public health programs that align with its interests and values, allowing other nations to take a more prominent role in setting global health agendas.
    • Disproportionate Effects: The low-income countries that rely heavily on WHO for support may face greater challenges without US involvement.

    What reforms or changes might be necessary within WHO in light of this withdrawal?

    • Diversification of Funding Sources: WHO should encourage member states to increase their assessed contributions, which currently cover less than 20% of its budget. This could help reduce reliance on any single donor, particularly the US.
      • WHO can seek to expand its voluntary contributions from other countries and private organizations to fill the financial gap left by the US withdrawal.
    • Strengthening Governance and Accountability: Implementing more transparent financial management practices can help restore trust among member states and ensure that funds are allocated effectively.
      • Establishing an independent oversight body to review WHO’s operations and decision-making processes may help address concerns about political influence and enhance accountability.

    What opportunity do India have in this situation?

    • Increased Leadership Role: India can take a prominent leadership position within WHO, representing the Global South.
      • For Example, through the Vaccine Maitri initiative, India facilitated vaccine exports during the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrating its commitment to global health equity and influencing health policies.
    • Strengthening Domestic Capabilities: The withdrawal allows India to bolster its healthcare infrastructure and research capabilities.
      • For Example, significant investments in indigenous vaccine production, such as Covaxin and Covishield, have positioned India as a major player in global vaccine supply chains, enhancing self-reliance and healthcare outcomes.
    • Enhanced Collaboration with Emerging Economies: India can forge stronger partnerships with other emerging economies to collaboratively address global health challenges.
      • For Example, engagement with countries like Brazil and South Africa through the IBSA Dialogue Forum can focus on shared issues like antimicrobial resistance and maternal health, enhancing collective responses to public health threats.
    • Leveraging Pharmaceutical Strength: India’s robust pharmaceutical industry can fill gaps left by reduced WHO funding.
      • Known as the “pharmacy of the world,” India supplied affordable vaccines during the pandemic, reinforcing its reputation as a key player in global healthcare by continuing to produce low-cost medications.

    Way Forward: India can not only mitigate the impacts of the US withdrawal but also can significantly contribute to shaping a more equitable global health landscape.

  • How beggar-thy-neighbour policies can make global trade come to a standstill?

    Why in the News?

    In 2025, the United States’ imposition of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, exemplifies modern beggar-thy-neighbour policies.

    What is Beggar-Thy-Neighbor Policy?

    • Beggar-thy-neighbor policies refer to protectionist economic policies in which economic strategies are adopted by a country to improve its own economic situation at the expense of other nations.
    • These policies often involve protectionist measures such as tariffs, quotas, or currency devaluation, which can lead to negative repercussions for trading partners. For example, recently the USA imposed tariffs on China.

    What are the positive implications of this policy?

    • Domestic Economic Boost: Proponents argue that these policies can stimulate the domestic economy by protecting local industries and jobs. For example, tariffs on imports can encourage consumers to buy domestic products, potentially reducing unemployment in key sectors.
    • National Security: Supporters often cite national security concerns, suggesting that certain industries need protection from foreign competition to maintain a robust domestic economy.
    • Encouragement of Exports: By depreciating the national currency, a country can make its exports cheaper and more competitive in international markets, which is believed to enhance demand for domestic goods abroad.

    What do the critics say?

    • Global Economic Decline – The U.S.-China Trade War (2018-Present) illustrates how protectionist policies can escalate into retaliatory actions.
      • The U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, prompting China to retaliate with its own tariffs, disrupting global supply chains and reducing international trade volumes.
    • Higher Consumer Prices – The U.S. Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum (2018) under Section 232 increased production costs for American industries relying on these metals, such as automobile and construction sectors.
      • A study by the Federal Reserve found that these tariffs cost U.S. consumers and businesses over $1.4 billion per month.
    • Historical Warnings – The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1930) in the U.S. significantly raised tariffs on imports, leading to retaliation from trading partners like Canada and European nations.
      • This contributed to a sharp decline in global trade and worsened the Great Depression. Global exports fell by nearly two-thirds between 1929 and 1934, demonstrating the adverse effects of widespread protectionism.
    • Reduced Innovation and Efficiency – India’s License Raj (1947–1991) is a prime example of how excessive protectionism stifled innovation. The heavily regulated economy limited foreign competition, leading to inefficiencies, outdated technology, and slow economic growth.
      • Post-1991 economic liberalization, which reduced trade barriers, spurred competition, efficiency, and innovation across various industries.

    Which countries use this policy? 

    • U.S. Tariffs and Trade War – Under the “America First” policy, the U.S. imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods in 2018 to shield domestic industries. In response, China introduced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, escalating a trade war that disrupted global markets.
    • China’s Currency Policies – China has been accused of currency manipulation to maintain trade advantages. In 2019, the U.S. Treasury labeled China a currency manipulator after the People’s Bank of China allowed the yuan to depreciate, making Chinese exports cheaper and imports more expensive.
    • Japan’s Currency Interventions – To boost exports during economic stagnation, Japan’s central bank has weakened the yen through market interventions. While this makes Japanese exports more competitive, it raises import costs for domestic consumers and affects trading partners negatively.
    • Germany’s Eurozone Trade Advantage – Germany’s strong export-driven economy, supported by fiscal discipline and manufacturing strength, has been seen as creating imbalances within the Eurozone. During financial crises, weaker European economies struggle to compete, intensifying economic disparities.

    Does India use this policy? 

    In recent times, India has indeed engaged in practices that can be characterized as beggar-thy-neighbor policies, particularly in the context of trade and economic strategy.

    • Tariffs on Imports: India has imposed tariffs on various goods to protect its domestic industries.
      • For instance, in 2018, India raised import duties on a range of products, including electronics and agricultural goods, to encourage local manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign imports. Such measures can be seen as attempts to bolster India’s economy at the expense of exporting countries.
    • Restrictions on Chinese Imports: Following geopolitical tensions, India has implemented stricter regulations and tariffs on imports from China.
      • This includes bans on several Chinese apps (like tiktok) and increased scrutiny of Chinese investments.

    Way forward: 

    • Balanced Trade Policies: Countries should adopt a mix of strategic protectionism and open trade to safeguard domestic industries while preventing trade wars.
      • Strengthening WTO mechanisms and engaging in fair trade negotiations can ensure economic stability.
    • Focus on Competitiveness: Instead of relying on protectionist measures, nations should invest in innovation, skill development, and infrastructure to enhance global competitiveness, ensuring sustainable economic growth without harming trading partners.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q What are the key areas of reform if the WTO has to survive in the present context of ‘Trade War’, especially keeping in mind the interest of India? (UPSC IAS/2018)

  • On live-in relationships in Uttarakhand

    Why in the News?

    Recently, the Uttarakhand government introduced new rules under the Uniform Civil Code to regulate live-in relationships. These rules require couples to complete a 16-page form and, if they wish to marry, obtain a certificate from a religious leader confirming their eligibility.

    What has Uttarakhand’s Uniform Civil Code mandated with respect to the registration of live-in relationships? 

    • Mandatory Registration: Couples in live-in relationships must register their relationship with the government within 30 days of entering into it. This requirement applies to all residents of Uttarakhand, including those living outside the state.
    • Documentation Required: Couples must complete a 16-page registration form and provide various documents, which include: Proof of age, Proof of residency, Details of any previous relationships (marital or live-in) and a certificate from a religious leader confirming eligibility to marry if they choose to do so.

    Should the parents of the individuals be notified by the registrar? 

    • Yes, under Uttarakhand’s Uniform Civil Code (UCC), the registrar is required to notify the parents of individuals in live-in relationships if either partner is under 21 years of age.
    • This notification is part of the registration process aimed at ensuring parental awareness and consent for younger individuals entering such relationships. For those above 21, their information will be kept confidential, and parents will not be notified.

    Are there penalties for concealing the relationship?

    • Failure to Register: Couples who do not register their live-in relationship within the specified time frame may face penalties, including:
      • A jail term of up to three months or a fine up to ₹10,000 for failing to register within 30 days.
      • If a notice is issued by the registrar and the individual fails to comply, they could face a jail term of up to six months or a fine up to ₹25,000.
    • False Information: Providing false information during registration can also lead to penalties, including imprisonment and fines.

    What about privacy?

    • Intrusive Registration Process: The UCC requires couples to provide extensive personal information during the registration of their live-in relationships, which many individuals find intrusive. Critics argue that this process compromises their privacy by mandating the disclosure of sensitive details about their relationships, including previous partnerships and eligibility for marriage.
    • Parental Notification: The requirement to notify parents if either partner is under 21 years old adds another layer of intrusion into personal lives. This provision can lead to unwanted scrutiny from family members, particularly for couples seeking to maintain privacy from their families.
    • Potential for Misuse: The UCC allows third parties to raise complaints about live-in relationships, which could lead to moral policing and harassment. This aspect raises fears of social scrutiny and the possibility of individuals facing backlash or pressure from their communities or families based on their relationship status.
    • Data Security Risks: Concerns have been voiced about the security of the data collected through the UCC’s online registration portal, especially in light of recent cyberattacks that have impacted Uttarakhand’s IT infrastructure. Residents question how their personal information will be protected and what measures are in place to prevent unauthorized access or breaches.

    Way forward: 

    • Safeguard Privacy & Data Protection – The government should implement stringent data security measures and ensure that personal details remain confidential, limiting access only to authorized personnel. The provision of parental notification for those under 21 should be reconsidered to balance individual rights with social concerns.
    • Simplify Registration & Reduce Intrusiveness – The registration process should be streamlined with minimal documentation requirements, avoiding unnecessary personal disclosures. Instead of a blanket mandate, an opt-in registration system or voluntary declaration could be considered to respect personal choices.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q Discuss the possible factors that inhibit India from enacting for its citizen a uniform civil code as provided for in the Directive Principles of State Policy. (UPSC IAS/2017)

  • The legal systems under which citizenship is acquired

    Why in the News?

    Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump issued an order stating that, in the future, only children whose parents are U.S. citizens or green card holders will be eligible for U.S. citizenship.

    What are the two different principles which govern citizenship laws in various countries? 

    • Jus Soli (Right of Soil): This principle grants citizenship based on the place of birth. A child born within the territory of a country automatically acquires citizenship, regardless of the nationality of their parents.
        • Countries such as the United States, Canada, and many Latin American nations follow this principle, allowing for what is often referred to as birthright citizenship.
    • Jus Sanguinis (Right of Blood): Under this principle, citizenship is determined by the nationality or citizenship of one or both parents. A child inherits citizenship from their parents, irrespective of where they are born.
      • Many countries in Europe, Africa, and Asia, including Germany, India, and Egypt, adopt this principle, meaning that a child’s citizenship is based on their parents’ nationality rather than their birthplace.

    What was the system in the U.S.? 

    • Historically, the United States has operated under the jus soli principle, as established by the 14th Amendment to the Constitution in 1868. This amendment states that “all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States”. The U.S. Supreme Court reaffirmed this interpretation in 1898, confirming that all children born on U.S. soil are entitled to citizenship regardless of their parents’ immigration status.
    • However, President Trump’s recent executive order seeks to alter this long-standing practice by restricting citizenship to children born in the U.S. only if at least one parent is a U.S. citizen or lawful permanent resident (green card holder).
      • This order has faced legal challenges, with critics arguing it contradicts constitutional protections established over a century ago.

    How are India’s citizenship laws different?

    Aspect U.S. Citizenship Indian Citizenship
    Principle Jus Soli (by birth) Jus Sanguinis (by descent) since 1987
    Law 14th Amendment (1868) Citizenship Act, 1955 (Amended in 1987, 2004, and 2019)
    Recent Changes Attempt to limit birthright citizenship (stayed by court) Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), 2019 grants selective citizenship
    Religious Criteria No religious discrimination CAA 2019 excludes Muslims from fast-track citizenship

    What would be the impact on India? 

    • The executive order creates uncertainty for many families within the Indian-American community, especially those on temporary visas such as H-1B. Children born in the U.S. to these parents have traditionally been granted citizenship automatically.
      • This change could potentially affect thousands of Indian families who may now face challenges regarding their children’s citizenship status if they are born in the U.S.

    What are the challenges for the executive order of the president? 

    • Legal Challenges: A coalition of four states—Washington, Arizona, Illinois, and Oregon—has filed a lawsuit seeking to temporarily suspend the executive order while the court examines its legality.
      • This request is part of a broader legal challenge involving 18 Democratic-led states and various civil rights organizations, including the ACLU, which argue that the order violates the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution that guarantees citizenship to anyone born on U.S. soil.
    • Judicial Response: A federal judge in Seattle has already issued a temporary restraining order against Trump’s executive order, labelling it “blatantly unconstitutional.”

    Way forward: 

    • Judicial Review & Constitutional Adherence: The U.S. judiciary should ensure that any changes to citizenship laws align with the 14th Amendment and established Supreme Court precedents, preventing unconstitutional restrictions on birthright citizenship.
    • Policy Reforms & Legislative Clarity: Instead of executive orders, any significant change to citizenship laws should go through Congress with bipartisan consultation, ensuring legal stability and safeguarding the rights of affected families.

    PYQ:

    [2021] With reference to India, consider the following statements :​

    1. There is only one citizenship and one domicile.​
    2. A citizen by birth only can become the Head of State.​
    3. A foreigner once granted the citizenship cannot be deprived of it under any circumstances.​

    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?​

    (a) 1 only ​

    (b) 2 only​

    (c) 1 and 3 ​ only

    (d) 2 and 3 only

  • Bharatiya Bhasha Pustak Scheme

    Why in the News?

    In the Union Budget 2025-26, Finance Minister, has introduced the Bharatiya Bhasha Pustak Scheme to provide digital textbooks in Indian languages.

    What is Bharatiya Bhasha Pustak Scheme?

    • Aims and Objectives:
      • It will provide digital textbooks and study resources for students at the school and university levels, promoting regional languages in the education system.
      • The scheme aims to bridge the language gap by providing digital textbooks and study materials in multiple Indian languages.
      • It ensures that students from diverse linguistic backgrounds can study subjects in their mother tongue, improving comprehension and retention.
    • It aligns with the NEP 2020 vision to promote multilingualism in education.
    • It complements the ASMITA (Augmenting Study Materials in Indian Languages through Translation and Academic Writing) initiative.
      • 22,000 books in Indian languages will be developed in the next five years under ASMITA.

    Criteria and Provisions:

    • The scheme will be implemented in schools, colleges, and universities across India.
    • Institutions affiliated with UGC, AICTE, and other regulatory bodies will be part of the initiative.
    • The scheme will focus on STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics), Social Sciences, Commerce, and Humanities.
    • Special emphasis on technical education in Indian languages.
    • The digital books will be available on government-supported e-learning platforms like DIKSHA, e-PG Pathshala, and National Digital Library of India.
    • AI-based tools will be used to facilitate translations, voice-assisted learning, and personalized study materials.

    PYQ:

    [2016] ‘SWAYAM’, an initiative of the Government of India, aims at:

    (a) Promoting the Self Help Groups in rural areas

    (b) Providing financial and technical assistance to young start-up entrepreneurs

    (c) Promoting the education and health of adolescent girls

    (d) Providing affordable and quality education to the citizens for free

  • [1st February 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Four years on, Myanmar and its continuing nightmare

    PYQ Relevance:

    Q) Analyze internal security threats and transborder crimes along Myanmar, Bangladesh and Pakistan borders including Line of Control (LoC). Also discuss the role played by various security forces in this regard. (UPSC CSE 2020)

    Q) ‘India is an age-old friend of Sri Lanka.’ Discuss India’s role in the recent crisis in Sri Lanka in the light of the preceding statement. (UPSC CSE 2022)

     

    Mentor’s Comment: UPSC mains have always focused on Crossborder insurgency (2019), and Role of India in Southeast Asia (2017).

    The ongoing violence in Myanmar, human rights abuses, and political repression have left millions in dire conditions, with over 6,000 civilians killed and 3.5 million displaced. According to the World Bank, by 2025, around 19.9 million people—one-third of the population—are expected to require humanitarian aid, including 6.3 million children in Myanmar.

     

    As Myanmar marks four years since the military coup, today’s editorial highlights the urgent need for global attention and action. The international community’s response has been inadequate, failing to effectively challenge the junta’s grip on power. This content can be used to present Neighbourhood Policy or South Asian Democratic Crises in your Mains Answers.

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    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    There are several significant developments surrounding the ongoing crisis in Myanmar as it marks the fourth anniversary of the military coup.

    [1st February 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Four years on, Myanmar and its continuing nightmare

    What has been the impact of the military coup on Myanmar’s political landscape?

    The military coup in Myanmar on February 1, 2021, has drastically altered the political landscape, leading to instability and conflict. 

    • Return to Military Rule: The coup reversed a decade-long democratic transition by overthrowing the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), resulting in widespread protests and civil unrest against the junta.
    • Rise in Civil Unrest and Resistance: The coup sparked massive protests and a civil disobedience movement, leading to the formation of a shadow government, the National Unity Government (NUG), by ousted lawmakers.
      • This has resulted in armed conflict with various ethnic groups and newly formed resistance forces, creating a state of civil war.
    • Human Rights Violations and Humanitarian Crisis: The military’s brutal crackdowns have led to widespread human rights abuses, including killings and arbitrary detentions. Millions have been displaced, exacerbating existing ethnic conflicts, particularly affecting the Rohingya population. The international response has largely failed to hold the military accountable.

    What are the prospects for Myanmar’s economy in 2025 considering the current socio political turmoil?

    • The World Bank forecasts a 1% contraction in Myanmar’s GDP for the fiscal year ending in March 2025, marking a significant downgrade from earlier growth expectations.
      • By 2025, around 19.9 million people—one-third of the population—are expected to require humanitarian aid, including 6.3 million children.
    • Since the military coup in February 2021, armed conflicts and natural disasters have disrupted production across sectors like agriculture and manufacturing. Recent floods have further damaged infrastructure.
    • About 25% of the population faces acute food insecurity, driven by high inflation rates projected at 26% annually. Many households struggle to afford basic necessities due to rising food prices.
    • The long-term economic outlook remains grim, with subdued growth expected even if conflict levels stabilize. Further violence or natural disasters could worsen economic conditions.

    How has the role of ASEAN evolved in addressing the Myanmar crisis?

    • Five-Point Consensus: In April 2021, ASEAN introduced a Five-Point Consensus calling for an end to violence, dialogue, humanitarian aid, and a special envoy to mediate. However, its effectiveness has been limited due to lack of inclusivity and pressure on the military junta.
    • Trioka Mechanism: ASEAN created the Trioka Mechanism to monitor the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus. This group includes Indonesia, Laos, and Malaysia but faces concerns about its ability to address Myanmar’s complex issues.
    • Humanitarian Response: ASEAN has held meetings to improve humanitarian aid delivery but struggles with implementation challenges.
    • International Engagement: External influences, like those from the EU and UN, have shaped ASEAN’s approach. Critics argue that ASEAN’s preference for dialogue over sanctions has not produced significant results.

    Way Forward:

    • The UN and ASEAN have struggled to resolve the Myanmar crisis, prompting experts to call on neighboring countries—China, India, Thailand, Bangladesh, and Laos—to take action, as the situation threatens their interests.
      • However, challenges persist: borders with India and Bangladesh are controlled by ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), trust issues exist between India and China, and India-Bangladesh relations are strained.
      • This makes it difficult for these nations to reach a consensus on how to encourage peace.
    • Thailand, as a significant ASEAN member, could play a crucial role but faces its own limitations.
      • Meanwhile, China’s influence has grown since the coup, and experts suggest that Myanmar’s people should not rely on external help; instead, their leaders must prioritize dialogue over violence to avoid further suffering.

  • [31st January 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: An opportunity to settle Sri Lanka’s ethnic problem

    PYQ Relevance:

    Q) ‘India is an age-old friend of Sri Lanka.’ Discuss India’s role in the recent crisis in Sri Lanka in the light of the preceding statement. (UPSC CSE 2022)

     

    Mentor’s Comment: UPSC mains have always focused on India is an age-old friend of Sri Lanka (2022), and ‘India — Sri Lanka relations ’ (2013).

    Over the past 40 years, India’s role in Sri Lanka’s ethnic conflict evolved from mediator to active player, leading to the 1987 Indo-Lanka Accord and the 13th Amendment, which introduced Provincial Councils. The JVP opposed it, calling it an Indian imposition. The LTTE also rejected it and demanded a separate Tamil Eelam, which India never supported.

    Today’s editorial talks about the India Srilanka relation. This content would help in GS Paper 2 International relations.

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    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    Recently, India’s decision to name the Jaffna Cultural Centre after Tamil poet-philosopher Thiruvalluvar is a symbolic way to strengthen its deep ties with Sri Lanka.

     

    What are the historical roots of the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka?

    • Colonial Legacy: British colonial rule (1815-1948) favoured the Tamil minority in administration and education, causing resentment among the Sinhalese majority.
    • Sinhala-Only Act (1956): The official adoption of Sinhala as the sole national language marginalized Tamil speakers and led to widespread Tamil discontent.
    • Discrimination in Education & Employment: Policies like the standardization of university admissions (1970s) made it harder for Tamils to access higher education and government jobs.
    • Ethnic Violence & Riots: The 1983 anti-Tamil pogrom (Black July) led to mass violence against Tamils, intensifying the demand for Tamil autonomy.
    • Rise of the LTTE: The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) emerged as the dominant militant group demanding an independent Tamil Eelam, leading to a brutal civil war (1983-2009).
    • Indo-Lanka Accord (1987) & 13th Amendment: This attempt at devolution through Provincial Councils failed to fully address Tamil aspirations, leading to continued tensions.

    How can the new government address Tamil aspirations and rights?

    • Full Implementation of the 13th Amendment: The government should prioritize the effective implementation of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution, which allows for provincial councils and limited autonomy for Tamil-majority regions. This step is crucial for addressing Tamil political representation and governance.
    • Engagement in Inclusive Dialogue: Establishing a direct and inclusive dialogue with Tamil political leaders and communities is essential. This dialogue should focus on addressing historical grievances, ensuring that Tamil voices are heard in national policy-making, and fostering reconciliation.
    • Address Land Rights and Resettlement Issues: The government must take action to return lands occupied by the military to their rightful Tamil owners and halt any ongoing land grabs that threaten Tamil communities. Ensuring land rights is vital for restoring trust and dignity among Tamils.
    • Commitment to Human Rights Accountability: The new administration should commit to addressing past human rights violations during the civil war, including accountability for wartime atrocities. This includes repealing repressive laws like the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) that disproportionately affect Tamils.
    • Cultural Recognition and Language Rights: Promoting Tamil culture and ensuring that Tamil is recognized as an official language alongside Sinhala would help foster a sense of inclusion and respect for Tamil identity within the broader national framework, enhancing community cohesion.

    What role does international support play in resolving Sri Lanka’s ethnic issues?

    • Mediation and Pressure: Countries like India have historically acted as mediators in Sri Lankan affairs. Their support can encourage the government to adhere to commitments regarding Tamil rights and autonomy.
    • Development Assistance: International aid can facilitate economic development in Tamil areas, addressing disparities that fuel ethnic tensions. India’s financial assistance for infrastructure projects is an example of how external support can aid reconciliation efforts.
    • Monitoring Human Rights: International organizations can monitor human rights conditions in Sri Lanka, advocating for accountability and justice for past atrocities against Tamils, which is essential for building trust and moving towards lasting peace.

    Way forward:

    • Strengthen Political and Constitutional Reforms: Ensure full implementation of the 13th Amendment, conduct Provincial Council elections, and explore further constitutional reforms to enhance Tamil political representation and autonomy.
    • Promote Inclusive Economic Development and Reconciliation: Invest in infrastructure, employment, and education in Tamil-majority areas while advancing truth, justice, and reconciliation initiatives to address past grievances and build long-term social cohesion.

  • [pib] E-Shram Microsites & Occupational Shortage Index (OSI)

    Why in the News?

    Union Minister for Labour & Employment has launched State and Union Territory Microsites under the e-Shram initiative and the Occupational Shortage Index (OSI).

    About E-Shram Microsites

    • E-Shram Microsites are state-specific digital platforms integrated with the national e-Shram database.
    • It is aimed at providing unorganised workers seamless access to both Central and State government welfare programs.
    • These platforms ensure real-time integration between State portals and the e-Shram database, allowing simplified registration of unorganised workers.

    Key benefits includes:

    (1) For Workers:

    • One-stop access to employment opportunities, skilling programs, and social security benefits.
    • Multilingual accessibility, ensuring workers from different regions can navigate the platform in their preferred language.
    • Two-way integration with the e-Shram database, allowing workers to receive real-time updates on welfare schemes and job opportunities.

    (2) For States/UTs:

    • Cost-effective digital infrastructure, reducing the need for separate State-level portals.
    • Real-time analytics dashboards for better policy decision-making and customized tools for specific labour market requirements.

    What is Occupational Shortage Index (OSI)?

    • The OSI is a data-driven tool designed to identify job roles and industries facing labour shortages, improving workforce planning and employment outcomes.
    • It is based on ILO methodology and quarterly Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data, ensuring an accurate and updated analysis of the job market.
    • It comprise of following 4 sub-indicators:
    1. Hourly Wage Growth
    2. Employment Growth
    3. Growth in Hours Worked
    4. Share of Under-qualified Workers
    • High OSI indicates Shortage/higher demand of workers within a particular occupation, which may result in higher wages, more job opportunities.
    • Low OSI indicates Surplus/less demand of workers, which may lead to lower wages, fewer job opportunities, and increased competition for available positions.

    PYQ:

    [2015] Discuss the changes in the trends of labour migration within and outside India in the last four decades.

  • Places in news: Kurdistan Region

    Why in the News?

    India has dispatched a humanitarian aid consignment to the Kurdistan region of Iraq.

    Kurdistan Region

    What is the Kurdistan Region?

    • The Kurdistan Region refers to areas inhabited by ethnic Kurds, primarily in Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey.
    • The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) administers Iraqi Kurdistan, an autonomous region in northern Iraq.
    • The Kurds, a distinct ethnic and linguistic group, have long sought independence and greater autonomy.
    • Geographical Significance:
      • Spans across Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria, covering the Zagros Mountains and fertile plains.
      • Rich in oil and natural gas, particularly in Iraqi Kurdistan, making it geopolitically significant.
      • Controls key border regions and trade routes, influencing regional stability.
    • Political Implications:
      • The Kurdish struggle for autonomy has led to tensions with central governments, particularly in Iraq and Turkey.
      • Kurdish forces (Peshmerga) have played a key role in fighting ISIS and maintaining security in northern Iraq.
      • The KRG has diplomatic ties with Western countries but lacks full sovereignty.

    Ongoing Dispute:

    • The Kurdish independence movement faces opposition from Iraq, Turkey, Iran, and Syria, fearing territorial fragmentation.
    • Iraq rejected the 2017 Kurdistan independence referendum, leading to military and economic retaliation.
    • Turkey continues military operations against Kurdish groups, considering them a security threat.
    • The Turkey-ISIS-Kurd relationship remains controversial, with allegations that Turkey indirectly enabled ISIS against the Kurds.

     

    PYQ:

    [2018] The term “two-state solution” is sometimes mentioned in the news in the context of the affairs of:

    (a) China

    (b) Israel

    (c) Iraq

    (d) Yemen