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GS Paper: GS2

  • Opinion polls

    Every election season, we find television channels flooded with opinion polls and subsequently exit polls after the casting of votes.

    What are Opinion Polls?

    • Opinion polls are similar to surveys or an inquiry designed to gauge public opinion about a specific issue or a series of issues in a scientific and unbiased manner.
    • This term has got wide recognition for assessing outcomes of elections in India.
    • In most democracies, opinion and exit polls are common during elections.
    • In India, the ECI allows the dissemination of the exit poll results half an hour after the end of polling on the last poll day.

    How are they conducted?

    • Interviewers/reporters ask questions of people chosen at random from the population being measured.
    • Responses are given, and interpretations are made based on the results.
    • It is important in a random sample that everyone in the population being studied has an equal chance of participating.
    • Otherwise, the results could be biased and, therefore, not representative of the population.

    Need of such polls

    • Popular opinion: Polls are simply a measurement tool that tells us how a population thinks and feels about any given topic.
    • Specific viewpoint: Polls tell us what proportion of a population has a specific viewpoint.
    • Opportunity to express: Opinion polling gives people who do not usually have access to the media an opportunity to be heard.

    Issues with such polls (in context to elections)

    • Authenticity: Critics have often questioned their authenticity.
    • Manipulation of voters: This largely manipulates the voting behavior.
    • Sensationalization by media: The media, on the other hand, invariably opposes the idea of a ban as seat forecasts attract primetime viewership.
    • Ridiculing the public mandate: The exit polls largely disrespect public opinions inciting confusion regarding the election mandate.

    Why does it persist in India?

    Ans. Exercise of Free Speech

    • The opposition to the ban in India is mainly on the ground that freedom of speech and expression is granted by the Constitution (Article 19).
    • What is conveniently forgotten is that this freedom is not absolute and allows for “reasonable restrictions” in the same article.

    Limited restrictions that we have in India

    • RP Act: The Indian Penal Code and Representation of the People Act, 1951 do contain certain restrictions against disinformation.
    • Restrictions on A19: While the Constitution allows for reasonable restrictions on freedom of expression, its mandate to the ECI for free and fair elections is absolute.
    • Supreme Court interpretations: The Supreme Court (SC), in a series of judgments, has emphasized this requirement.
    • Basic structure doctrine: It considers free and fair elections is the basic structure of the Constitution (PUCL vs Union of India, 2003; NOTA judgment, 2013).

    Examples of restrictions

    • Restrictions are imposed in many countries, extending from two to 21 days prior to the poll — Canada, France, Italy, Poland, Turkey, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, to name a few examples.
    • In India, all political parties too have opposed these polls, demanding a ban — except when they are shown as winning.

    Why does the ECI feel that opinion polls interfere with free and fair elections?

    • Prevalence of paid news in India: Having seen “paid news” in action, it apprehends that some opinion polls may be sponsored, motivated and biased.
    • Opacity: Almost all polls are non-transparent, providing little information on the methodology.
    • Propaganda: Subtle propaganda on casteist, religious and ethnic basis as well as by the use of sophisticated means like the alleged poll surveys create public distrust in poll process.
    • Disinformation: With such infirmities, many “polls” amount to misinformation that can result in “undue influence”, which is an “electoral offense” under IPC Section 171 (C). It is a “corrupt practice” under section 123 (2) of the RP Act.
    • Betting: The polling agencies manipulate the margin of error, victory margin for candidates, seat projections for a party or hide negative findings.

    Call for a ban in India

    • The demand for a ban on opinion polls is not new.
    • At all-party meets called by the Election Commission in 1997 and 2004, there was unanimous demand for a ban.
    • The difference of opinion was only on whether the ban should apply from the announcement of the poll schedule or the date of notification.

    Moves by ECI

    • In 1998, the ECI issued guidelines that were challenged in the SC.
    • A five-judge Constitution Bench asked the ECI how it would enforce these decisions in the absence of a law.
    • Realizing its weakness, the ECI withdrew the guidelines.
    • Unfortunately, this left the constitutionality of the issue

    Way forward

    • Independent regulator: Ideally a body like the British Polling Council would be a viable option. India could set up its own professional, self-regulated body on the same lines say Indian Polling Council.
    • Mandatory disclosure: All polling agencies must disclose for scrutiny the sponsor, besides sample size, methodology, time frame, quality of training of research staff, etc.

     

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  • Information and Broadcasting Ministry’s powers to regulate content on TV

    The Kerala High Court will pronounce its judgment on an Information and Broadcasting Ministry (I&B) order banning a Malayalam news channel over its connections with radical groups.

    Sectors regulated by I&B Ministry

    • Until last year, it had the power to regulate content across all sectors barring the internet.
    • The sectors include TV channels, newspapers and magazines, movies in theatres and on TV, and the radio.
    • Since Feb 2021, the Information Technology (Intermediary Guidelines and Digital Media Ethics Code) Rules, 2021, extended its regulatory powers over internet content.
    • It now exercises powers especially on digital news and OTT platforms such as Netflix, Amazon Prime, or Hotstar.

    What kind of powers does it have?

    (a) Film Censoring

    • For example, the Central Board of Film Certification (CBFC) has a mandate to give any film that will be played in a theatre, a rating indicating the kind of audience it is suitable for.
    • In practice, however, the CBFC has often suggested changes or cuts to a film before giving it a certification.
    • While it isn’t the CBFC’s mandate to censor a film, it can withhold giving a rating unless the filmmaker agrees to its suggestions.

    (b) TV Censoring

    • When it comes to TV channels, the government last year came up with a three-tier grievance redressal structure for viewers to raise concerns, if any.
    • A viewer can successively approach the channel, then a self-regulatory body of the industry, and finally the I&B Ministry, can issue a show-cause notice to the channel,.
    • It can then refer the issue to an inter-ministerial committee (IMC).

    (c) OTT and other platforms

    • For content on OTT platforms too, there is a similar structure.

    Power to Ban news channels

    • It has in the past issued orders to temporarily ban news and other channels.
    • In November 2016, it imposed a one-day ban on NDTV for its reporting of the Pathankot terror attack.
    • Violation can lead to revocation of a channel’s uplinking license (for sending content to a satellite) or downlinking license (for broadcasting to viewers through an intermediary).
    • In print, based on the recommendations of the Press Council of India, the government can suspend its advertising to a publication.
    • And last year’s IT rules allow I&B Ministry to issue orders to ban websites based on their content.

    What kind of content is not allowed?

    • There are no specific laws on content allowed or prohibited in print and electronic media, radio, films, or OTT platforms.
    • The content on any of these platforms has to follow the free speech rules of the country.
    • Article 19(1) while protecting the freedom of speech, also lists certain “reasonable restrictions” including content related to the security of the state, friendly relations with foreign states, public order, decency, morality, etc.
    • Action can be taken if any of these restrictions are violated.

    Do other agencies play a role?

    • There is no direct involvement, as the powers to regulate content rest only with the I&B Ministry.
    • However, the ministry relies on inputs from other ministries, as well as intelligence agencies.
    • In the recent case, its licenses were revoked because the Home Ministry had denied it security clearance, which is essential as part of the policy.
    • There is also a new mechanism the I&B Ministry adopts.
    • It has used emergency powers it has under the new IT Rules to block certain YouTube channels and social media accounts based on inputs from intelligence agencies.

     

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  • Unitary Digital Identity Framework (UDIF)

    India has agreed to provide a grant to Sri Lanka to implement a ‘Unitary Digital Identity Framework’, apparently modelled on the Aadhaar Card.

    What is UDIF?

    • UDIF is apparently similar to India’s own Aadhaar.
    • Under the proposed UDIF it is expected to introduce a:
    1. Personal identity verification device based on biometric data
    2. Digital tool that can represent the identities of individuals in cyberspace and
    3. Identification of individual identities that can be accurately verified in digital and physical environments by combining the two devices

    (More updates awaited)

    Why such move?

    • SL has been receiving substantive economic assistance from India – totalling $ 1.4 billion since the beginning of this year.
    • India is helping the island nation cope with its dollar crunch, and import food, medicines and fuel amid frequent shortages.

     

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  • Anchoring the United Kingdom economically to the Indo-Pacific

    Context

    January this year saw the formal launch of negotiations for an India-United Kingdom free trade agreement (FTA).

    Momentum in India-UK engagement

    • Despite some potential challenges, there is a new momentum in the India-U.K. bilateral engagement these days with both sides confident of moving forward swiftly.
    • Greater role for UK in Indo-Pacific: Britain has made a trade pact with India one of its post-Brexit priorities as it seeks a greater role in the Indo-Pacific.
    • Brexit has necessitated greater access to non-EU markets, and the U.K.’s changing relationship with China requires a diversification of trading partners.
    • The FTA negotiations were aimed at achieving a “fair and balanced” FTA and cover more than 90% of tariff lines so as to reach the bilateral trade target of around $100 billion by 2030.
    • There have been indications that instead of the two nations trying to tackle all sensitive issues in one go, there could be an interim pact or early harvest deal.

    UK’s Indo-Pacific strategy

    • India is at the heart of the U.K.’s Indo-Pacific ‘tilt’, which has generated considerable interest around the world.
    • A range of factors have contributed for the U.K. to adopt a more robust Indo-Pacific strategy:
    • a) the trading implications of Brexit;
    • b) the U.K.’s changing approach towards China — shifting from being a major proponent of China to perhaps the most hawkish in Europe;
    • c) and the fact that the U.S. remains firmly focused on the Indo-Pacific.
    • The U.K. recognizes the importance of a free and open Indo-Pacific to global stability and prosperity and has made clear its intentions to deploy strategic assets to this end.
    • The trilateral security partnership AUKUS has given London a greater voice in the region.

    Consider the question “Various factors have contributed towards enhanced India-UK engagement. Examine the factors and the possibilities it offered to the two countries.”

    Conclusion

    The U.K. is finally carving out a direction and purpose to its post-Brexit foreign policy and this prioritization has opened up a new window for New Delhi and London to quickly finalize their FTA. It is a unique “now or never” moment and the two sides seem willing to seize it despite the challenges.

  • India-Britain free trade agreement

    Context

    In May last year, Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Boris Johnson announced their shared vision for a transformative decade for the India-United Kingdom partnership. These words have now been made real.

    Transforming India-UK partnership

    • Doubling bilateral trade: The two leaders had declared their ambition to more than double bilateral trade by 2030, which totalled over £23 billion in 2019.
    • Reduce barriers to trade: They directed their governments to take rapid steps to reduce barriers to trade.
    • FTA: The groundwork necessary to begin work on a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) had to be prepared by the end of 2021.
    • Both governments have already taken action; for example, unlocking the export of British apples to India and enabling a greater number of Indian fisheries to export shrimp to the U.K.
    • The big next step was the launch of FTA negotiations last month.

    Trade relations at present

    • Bilateral trade: The bilateral trade between the two countries stood at 15.5 billion USD in 2019-20. India has engaged with the UK in sectors like pharma, textiles, leather, industrial machinery, furniture, and toys.
      • Britain is among the top investors in India and India is the second-biggest investor and a major job creator in Britain. Recently, the Serum Institute of India has announced setting up its research facilities in the UK.
    • Indian Diaspora: Around 1.5 million people of Indian origin live in Britain. This includes 15 Members of Parliament, three members in Cabinet, and two in high office as Finance and Home Ministers.
    • India is already a big investor in the U.K. — especially in dynamic sectors such as fintech, electric vehicles, and batteries.
    • India has an extraordinary opportunity to transform its economy and society in the next 30 years, as it hits its demographic sweet spot, at the heart of the Indo-Pacific region where half the world’s people live and 50% of global economic growth is produced.

    Benefits of FTA

    • A U.K.-India trade agreement will stimulate growth and employment in both countries. 
    • Lower barriers coupled with greater regulatory certainty would incentivize new small and medium-sized enterprises to export their goods and services.
    • An agreement also means Indian and British consumers see improvements in the variety and affordability of products.
    • Strategic reasons: The British Government’s Integrated Review of our overseas policy, describes the world we are in; messier, with the more geostrategic competition.
    • It is one in which two dynamic democracies such as India and the U.K. need to work closely together to promote open economies.

    Consider the question “Colonial prism has long distorted the perception of India-UK relation. However, both the countries stand to gain by finding a fresh basis for sustaining bilateral relations. Comment.”  

    Conclusion

    An FTA would mark a new way of working between the U.K. and India. It gives a new framework within which the two countries can grow and flourish together, putting the colonial economic relationship where it belongs — in the history books.

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  • Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PMMVY)

    The government’s recent announcement that the maternity benefits program which provides ₹5,000 for the first child will be extended to cover the second child only if it is a girl has met with sharp criticism from activists who have demanded that it be universalized.

    What is PMMVY?

    • Launched in 2017, this scheme provides ₹5,000 for the birth of the first child to partially compensate a woman for the loss of wages.
    • It also aims to improve the nutritional well-being of the mother and the child.
    • The amount is given in three installments upon meeting certain conditions.
    • It is combined with another scheme, Janani Suraksha Yojana, under which nearly ₹1,000 is given for an institutional birth so that a woman gets a total of ₹6,000.

    Eligibility Conditions

    The first transfer (at pregnancy trimester) of ₹1,000 requires the mother to:

    • Register pregnancy at the Anganwadi Centre (AWC) whenever she comes to know about her conception
    • Attend at least one prenatal care session and take Iron-folic acid tablets and TT1 (tetanus toxoid injection)
    • Attend at least one counseling session at the AWC or healthcare centre.

    The second transfer (six months of conception) of ₹2,000 requires the mother to:

    • Attend at least one prenatal care session and TT2

    The third transfer (three and a half months after delivery) of ₹2,000 requires the mother to:

    • Register the birth
    • Immunize the child with OPV and BCG at birth, at six weeks, and at 10 weeks
    • Attend at least two growth monitoring sessions within three months of delivery

    Additionally, the scheme requires the mother to:

    • Exclusively breastfeed for six months and introduce complementary feeding as certified by the mother
    • Immunize the child with OPV and DPT
    • Attend at least two counselling sessions on growth monitoring and infant and child nutrition and feeding between the third and sixth months after delivery

    Why in news?

    • Under the revamped PMMVY under Mission Shakti, the maternity benefit amounting to ₹6000 is also to be provided for the second child.
    • However, this is only in case the second is a girl child, to discourage pre-birth sex selection and promote the girl child.

    Issues with this provision

    • To provide maternity benefit only to the mother of the firstborn is illegal as the National Food Security Act, 2013 lays down that every pregnant woman and lactating mother are entitled to it.
    • For second child as a girl, it is to promote the birth of a girl child is nothing but posturing since it penalizes the mother for not giving birth to a girl child.
    • Subsequent adding of more conditions to the scheme will prove to be a bureaucratic nightmare, which can be overcome if the scheme is universalized.
    • Women will be able to access the scheme only after the delivery, which will not have any impact on their nutritional uptake during the course of their pregnancy.

     

    Before judging this factual information, take this PYQ form 2019:

    Q.Which of the following statements is/are correct regarding the Maternity Benefit (Amendment) Act, 2017?

    1. Pregnant women are entitled to three months pre-delivery and three months post-delivery paid leave.
    2. Enterprises with creches must allow the mother a minimum of six crèche visits daily.
    3. Women with two children get reduced entitlements.

    Select the correct answer using the code given below.

    (a) 1 and 2 only

    (b) 2 only

    (c) 3 only

    (d) 1, 2 and 3

     

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”6pftvi12o6″ question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here.[/wpdiscuz-feedback]

     

     

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  • Paray Shikshalaya Initiative

    The West Bengal government has launched ‘Paray Shikshalaya’ Initiative.

    Paray Shikshalaya

    • It is an open-air classroom in the neighborhood programme – for students from class 1 to 7.
    • The aim of this initiative is to encourage students who dropped out of schools during the Covid-19 pandemic to continue their education.

    Why was this initiative launched?

    • In view of the rising demand for physical classes, the state government reopened schools.
    • Classroom teaching could not be called on due to fear of spikes in covid cases.
    • Hence, students are being called in batches.

    Where were these classes held?

    • Schools which do not have open-air spaces conducted the classes in neighbourhood parks and grounds.
    • Local councilors and MLAs helped set up infrastructure in such parks like putting up makeshift shades and chairs, besides making mid-day meal arrangements for the students.
    • Schools which have open-air spaces held the classes there.
    • Benches were set up for students and blackboards were placed to provide a real classroom experience.

     

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  • Upsetting the Centre-state balance

    Context

    The proposed amendment to Rule 6 of the IAS (Cadre) Rules 1954, seeks to do away with the consent of both the officer and the state government.

    What makes All-India services different?

    • Article 309: Under Article 309 of the Constitution, the Centre and states are empowered to erect and maintain services for running their administration.
    • Both the Centre and the states exercise full control over their services independently of each other.
    • Article 312: Unlike a central service or state service, an All-India Service is compositely administered under Article 312.
    • While recruitment and allotment to a cadre (state) are determined by the Centre, the states determine the work and posting.
    • Balance between Centre and states: Hence, All-India Services are carefully balanced between the Centre and the states.
    • The Indian Administrative Service (IAS), Indian Police Service (IPS), and Indian Forest Service (IFS) are the three All-India Services.
    • Being an All-India Service, officers of the IAS are posted to the states, from where they are deputed to the Centre with the tripartite consent of the officer, the state government and the central government.

    Issues with the proposed changes

    • The proposed amendment to Rule 6 of the IAS (Cadre) Rules 1954, seeks to do away with the consent of both the officer and the state government.
    • Reasons for amendment: The reason for the amendment, as declared by the central government, is to ensure adequate availability of IAS officers for central deputation, which at present is “not sufficient to meet the requirement at the Centre”.
    • However, the central government has gone beyond its declared reason and stretched the cadre rules to also allow for appropriation of IAS officers “in public interest”.
    • The Centre has virtually conferred upon itself the plenipotentiary power to pull out any number of IAS officers from the states.
    • States may divest IAS officers of key posts: To protect their administration from becoming paralysed, states may resort to altering their Transaction of Business Rules to divest IAS officers of key posts in the state, and vesting the same with the state officers.
    • Alternately, states may conjure provisional berths for retired bureaucrats to re-enter administration as special appointees, outside the cadre rules.
    • Flouting of cadre rules by States: As it is, the implementation of cadre rules is left to the mercy of the states, with the Centre showing a disinclination to enforce them.
    • Some states openly flout the cadre rules with impunity in matters of postings and transfers.
    • The Civil Services Board has been rendered impotent, non-cadre officers are being unilaterally appointed to IAS cadre posts, and the minimum tenure guarantee is openly flouted.
    • Against federalism: Not only could it allow distrust to fester in Centre-state relations, it would also result in the functional depreciation of the IAS in the states.

    Conclusion

    It is important for the states to be reassured that they are in control of their administration, and for the service to not lose its relevance.

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  • Weighing in on a health data retention plan

    Context

    The National Health Authority (NHA) — the body responsible for administering the Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission (ABDM) — has initiated a consultation process on the retention of health data by healthcare providers in India. The consultation paper asks for feedback on what data is to be retained, and for how long.

    Issues with the policy for healthcare data retention

    • Risk of over-collection: A simple classification system, as suggested in the consultation paper, exposes individuals to harms arising from over-collection and retention of unnecessary data.
    • At the same time, this kind of one-size-fits-all system can also lead to the under-retention of data that is genuinely required for research or public policy needs.
    • Instead, we should seek to classify data based on its use. 

    Do we need a policy for the mandatory retention of health data?

    • Currently, service providers can compete on how they handle the data of individuals or health records, in theory, each of us can choose a provider whose data policies we are comfortable with.
    • Whether the state should mandate a retention period at all is an open question.
    • Given the landscape of healthcare access in India, including through informal providers, many patients may not think about this factor in practice.
    • Nonetheless, the decision to take the choice out of the individual’s hands should not be taken lightly.

    Balancing the policy for public health data retention with the right to privacy

    • Four-part test for privacy: The Supreme Court of India has clarified that privacy is a fundamental right, and any interference into the right must pass a four-part test: legality; legitimate aim; proportionality, and appropriate safeguards.
    • Health data and privacy: The mandatory retention of health data is one such form of interference with the right to privacy.
    • 1] Legality: In this context, the question of legality becomes a question about the legal standing and authority of the NHA.
    • Since the NHA is not a sector-wide regulator, it has no legal basis for formulating guidelines for healthcare providers in general.
    • 2]Legitimate aim: The aim of data retention is described in terms of benefits to the individual and the public at large.
    • Benefits to the individuals: Individuals benefit through greater convenience and choice, created through portability of health records.
    • The broader public benefits through research and innovation, driven by the availability of more and better data to analyse.
    • Risk involved: Globally, legal systems consider health data particularly sensitive, and recognise that improper disclosure of this data can expose a person to a range of significant harms. 
    • Benefits must be clearly defined: As per Indian law, if an individual’s rights are to be curtailed due to anticipated benefits, such benefits cannot be potential or speculatory: they must be clearly defined and identifiable.
    • 3] Proportionality: This is the difference between saying that data on patients with heart conditions will help us better understand cardiac health — a vague explanation — and being able to identify a specific study that will include data from that patient.
    • It would further mean demonstrating that the study requires personally identifiable information, rather than just an anonymous record — the latter flowing from the principle of proportionality, which requires choosing the least intrusive option available.
    • 4] Safeguard: Standards for anonymisation are still developing.
    • We are not yet able to rule out the possibility of anonymised data still being linked back to specific individuals.
    • In other words, even anonymisation may not be the least intrusive solution to safeguarding patients’ rights in all scenarios.

    Way forward

    • Clear and specific case for retention: The test for retaining data should be that a clear and specific case has been identified for such retention, following a rigorous process run by suitable authorities.
    • Anonymise data: A second safeguard would be to anonymise data that is being retained for research purposes — again, unless a specific case is made for keeping personally identifiable information.
    • If neither of these is true, the data should be deleted.
    • Express and informed consent: An alternate basis for retaining data can be the express and informed consent of the individual in question.
    • User-based classification process: Health-care service providers — and everyone else — will have to comply with the data protection law, once it is adopted by Parliament.
    • The current Bill already requires purpose limitation for collecting, processing, sharing, or retaining data; a use-based classification process would thus bring the ABDM ecosystem actors in compliance with this law as well.

    Consider the question “What are the advantages and concerns with the retention of public health data? Suggest the ways to ensure the privacy-centric public health data retention policy.”

    Conclusion

    A privacy-centric process is needed to determine what data to retain and for how long.

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  • India- Central Asia Relations

    Context

    The inaugural India-Central Asia Summit, the India-Central Asia Dialogue, and the Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan in New Delhi — all held over the past four months — collectively indicate a renewed enthusiasm in New Delhi to engage the Central Asian region.

    Significance of Central Asia for India

    • India has limited economic and other stakes in the region, primarily due to lack of physical access.
    • And yet, the region appears to have gained a great deal of significance in India’s strategic thinking over the years, particularly in the recent past.
    • New geopolitical realities: India’s mission Central Asia today reflects, and is responsive to, the new geopolitical, if not the geo-economic, realities in the region.

    Factors driving India’s engagement

    • One of the factors driving this engagement and shaping it is the great power dynamics there.
    • Withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan: The decline of American presence and power in the broader region (due primarily to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan) has led to a reassertion by China and Russia seeking to fill the power vacuum.
    • India-Russia relations: Moscow considers India to be a useful partner in the region: it helps it to not only win back New Delhi, which is moving towards the U.S., but also to subtly checkmate the rising Chinese influence in its backyard.
    • For the U.S., while growing India-Russia relations is not a welcome development, it recognises the utility of Moscow-New Delhi relations in Central Asia to offset Beijing’s ever-growing influence there.
    • India’s dilemma:  In the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, New Delhi faces a major dilemma in the wider region, not just in the pre-existing theatres like the Line of Control and the Line of Actual Control.
    • India’s China challenge: India in the region might get further hemmed in due to the combined efforts by China, Pakistan and Taliban-led Afghanistan.
    • If so, it must ensure that there is no China-led strategic gang up with Pakistan and the Taliban against India in the region, which, if it becomes a reality, would severely damage Indian interests.
    • Consolidation of Afghan policy: India’s engagement of Central Asia would also help it to consolidate its post-American Afghan policy.
    • Now that the Taliban have returned to Kabul, New Delhi is forced to devise new ways of engaging Afghanistan.
    • That’s where the Central Asian Republics (CARs) and Russia could be helpful. 
    • The announcement of a Joint Working Group on Afghanistan during the summit between India and the CARs is surely indicative of such interest.

    Russia’s prominence

    • In India’s current vision for a regional security architecture, Russia appears prominent
    • Countering China: By courting Russia — its traditional partner, also close to China and getting closer to Pakistan — to help it re-establish its presence in the Central Asian region, India is seeking to work with one of the region’s strongest powers and also potentially create a rift between China and Russia.
    • Joint defence production by India and Russia has been on the rise and the CARs could play a key role in it.
    • India’s non-critical stance on developments in Ukrain and Kazakhstan: This growing India-Russia partnership also explains India’s non-critical stance on the developments in Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

    Challenges in India’s engagement with Central Asia

    • China’s dominance in the region:  China, which shares a land border with the region, is already a major investor there.
    • Iran’s role: An even bigger challenge for India may be Iran.
    • India’s best shot at reaching the CARs is by using a hybrid model – via sea to Chabahar and then by road/rail through Iran (and Afghanistan) to the CARs.
    •  So, for New Delhi, the ongoing re-negotiations on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action are of crucial importance.
    • While Iran getting close to the West is not preferred by Russia (but preferred by India), if and when it becomes a reality, India would be able to use it to its advantage and join Russia in engaging the CARs.
    • Delivering on the commitment: Most importantly, India will have to walk the talk on its commitments to Central Asia.
    • Does it have the political will, material capability and diplomatic wherewithal to stay the course in the region?

    Conclusion

    India’s renewed engagement of Central Asia is in the right direction for the simple reason that while the gains from an engagement of Central Asia may be minimal, the disadvantages of non-engagement could be costly in the longer run.

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