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  • An aggressive vaccination drive holds the key to economic revival

    The article highlights the challenges posed by the second wave of covid and how aggressive vaccination could help dealing with the issue.

    Severe second covid wave in India

    • India’s daily new cases have surged past 1,50,000, much above the first peak.
    • In India’s first wave, the increase from 50,000 to about 1,00,000 cases took about 50 days; in the second wave, it’s taken just 13.
    • To start with, the second wave was more concentrated, with Maharashtra accounting for 60 per cent of cases.
    • While the top five states still account for about 65 per cent of cases, the reproduction (R) factor in almost 10 states is estimated to be two or higher, creating risks for a wider and more rapid spread, if unaddressed.

    Lessons from the first wave

    • Policymakers, businesses and households have all learnt from the first wave and with the private sector better adapted to “live with the virus”.
    • Therefore, the economic costs should hopefully not be comparable to the first wave. Yet, they may not be trivial either.
    • The five states that account for 65 per cent of new cases also account for almost 36 per cent of GDP.
    • As virus cases have grown and restrictions have been imposed, retail and recreational mobility across these five states, is down 10 per cent since mid-March.
    • Labour market surveys have also begun to show discernable impacts on both participation and unemployment rates.

    Implications of unequal recovery for developing countries

    • The IMF projects India’s FY22 growth at 12.5 per cent, this would still leave India about 8-9 per cent below the level of output that was projected pre-pandemic for the end of 2021-22.
    • The challenge for emerging markets is that, given the quantum of fiscal and monetary space expended in combating the first wave, space to respond to subsequent waves will be constrained.
    •  Owing to the fiscal support and pace of vaccinations the US will be the only large economy, apart from China, to surpass its pre-pandemic path.
    • This, resulted in increased US yields, tightened global financial conditions, induced dollar strength and triggered
    • All this makes it harder for emerging economies to respond expansively to domestic shocks.
    • In effect, the heterogeneity of the recovery across developed and emerging markets is imposing policy constraints on the latter which, ironically, will simply compound the economic divergence.

    Challenges for India

    • India’s fiscal space to respond to a second wave appears constrained due to the following two factors:
    • 1) In India’s case, consolidated public debt will approach 90 per cent of GDP.
    • 2) The consolidated public sector borrowing requirements are budgeted above 11 per cent of GDP in FY22.
    • The dependence on budgeted asset sales has only increased, both as a hedge to tax revenues that could be impacted from a second wave, and as a means of protecting expenditures.
    • It will be equally crucial to leaving enough space for higher MGNREGA demand and other safety nets on account of a second wave, even while protecting capital expenditures — which generate large multiplier effects on the economy.
    • Similarly, monetary policy is already very accommodative, and with core inflation sticky and elevated, global deflationary pressures entrenched, there are natural limits to the degree of more monetary accommodation.

    Aggressive vaccination is the key

    • Israel, the UK and the US have all demonstrated how aggressive vaccinations can bend the COVID-curve.
    • Therefore, the Indian government’s decision to approve a third vaccine and fast-track emergency approval for foreign-produced vaccines is unambiguously positive.
    • On the demand side, of an estimated 100-110 million population of seniors (60-plus) in India, only about 40 million have taken the vaccine over the last six weeks, suggesting a reluctance to get vaccinated.
    • But, in fact, it’s crucial to ensure the vulnerable — those whose probability of hospitalisation is the highest — are fully vaccinated to reduce pressure on the health infrastructure.

    Consider the question “What are the challenges posed to the developing countries by heterogeneity of recovery across the developed and developing countries?

    Conclusion

    Vaccinations should be construed as simultaneously delivering both a positive demand and supply shock (for the economy), and a negative demand shock (for health infrastructure), thereby providing the best chance to decisively break the trade-offs between lives and livelihoods that bedevilled emerging markets all of last year.

  • Why the Personal Data Protection Bill matters

    The existing data protection framework based on IT Act 2000 falls short on several counts. The Personal Data Protection Bill seeks to deal with the shortcoming in it. The article explains how the two differs.

    Need for new data protection regime

    • The need for a more robust data protection legislation came to the fore in 2017 post the Supreme Court’s landmark judgment in Justice K.S. Puttaswamy (Retd) v. Union of India.
    • In the judgment, the Court called for a data protection law that can effectively protect users’ privacy over their personal data.
    • Consequently, the Committee of Experts was formed under the Chairmanship of Justice (Retd) B.N. Srikrishna to suggest a draft data protection law.
    • The Personal Data Protection Bill, 2019, in its current form, is a revised version of the draft legislative document proposed by the Committee.

    Issues with the existing data protection framework

    • The Information Technology Act, 2000 governs how different entities collect and process users’ personal data in India.
    • However, entities could override the protections in the regime by taking users’ consent to processing personal data under broad terms and conditions.
    • This is problematic given that users might not understand the terms and conditions or the implications of giving consent.
    •  Further, the frameworks emphasise data security but do not place enough emphasis on data privacy.
    • As a result, entities could use the data for purposes different to those that the user consented to.
    •  The data protection provisions under the IT Act also do not apply to government agencies.
    • Finally, the regime seems to have become antiquated and inadequate in addressing risks emerging from new developments in data processing technology.

    How the new regime under Data Protection Bill 2019 is different

    • First, the Bill seeks to apply the data protection regime to both government and private entities across all sectors.
    • Second, the Bill seeks to emphasise data security and data privacy.
    • While entities will have to maintain security safeguards to protect personal data, they will also have to fulfill a set of data protection obligations and transparency and accountability measures.
    • Third, the Bill seeks to give users a set of rights over their personal data and means to exercise those rights.
    • Fourth, the Bill seeks to create an independent and powerful regulator known as the Data Protection Authority (DPA).
    • The DPA will monitor and regulate data processing activities to ensure their compliance with the regime.

    Concerns

    • Under clause 35, the Central government can exempt any government agency from complying with the Bill.
    • Similarly, users could find it difficult to enforce various user protection safeguards (such as rights and remedies) in the Bill.
    • For instance, the Bill threatens legal consequences for users who withdraw their consent for a data processing activity.
    • Additional concerns also emerge for the DPA as an independent effective regulator that can uphold users’ interests.

    Consider the question “What are the issues with the present framework in India for data and privacy protection? How the Personal Data Protection Bill seeks to address these issues?”

    Conclusion

    The Joint Parliamentary Committee that is scrutinising the Bill is expected to submit its final report in the Monsoon Session of Parliament in 2021 Taking this time to make some changes in the Bill targeted towards addressing various concerns in it could make a stronger and more effective data protection regime.

  • Shaphari Scheme

    Commerce Ministry wants to build confidence in quality, antibiotic-free shrimp products from India for the global market.

    Shaphari Scheme

    • The Marine Products Exports Development Authority (MPEDA) has developed a certification scheme for aquaculture products called ‘Shaphari’, a Sanksrit word that means the superior quality of fishery products suitable for human consumption.
    • The Shaphari scheme is based on the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization’s technical guidelines on aquaculture certification.
    • It will have two components — certifying hatcheries for the quality of their seeds and, separately, approving shrimp farms that adopt the requisite good practices.
    • The certification of hatcheries will help farmers easily identify good quality seed producers.
    • Those who successfully clear multiple audits of their operations shall be granted a certificate for a period of two years.
    • The entire certification process will be online to minimize human errors and ensure higher credibility and transparency.

    Bolstering confidence in India’s Shrimp production

    • To bolster confidence in India’s frozen shrimp produce, the country’s biggest seafood export item, the Centre has kicked off a new scheme called ‘Shaphari’ to certify hatcheries and farms that adopt good aquaculture practices.
    • Frozen shrimp is India’s largest exported seafood item.
    • But a combination of factors had hurt export volumes in recent months, including container shortages and incidents of seafood consignments being rejected because of food safety concerns.
    • Some recent consignments sourced from Indian shrimp farms being rejected due to the presence of antibiotic residue and this is a matter of concern for exporters.
    • The National Residue Control Programme for food safety issues in farm produce and pre-harvest testing system is already in place.
    • But this certification was proposed as a market-based tool for hatcheries to adopt good aquaculture practices and help produce quality antibiotic-free shrimp products to assure global consumers.

    Frozen shrimp export potential

    • Frozen shrimp is India’s largest exported seafood item. It constituted 50.58% in quantity and 73.2% in terms of total U.S. dollar earnings from the sector during 2019-20.
    • India exported frozen shrimp worth almost $5 billion in 2019-20, with the U.S. and China its the biggest buyers.
    • Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Odisha, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu are India’s major shrimp producing States, and around 95% of the cultured shrimp produce is exported.

  • Indus and Ganges river dolphins are two different species

    Detailed analysis of South Asian river dolphins has revealed that the Indus and Ganges River dolphins are not one, but two separate species.

    About Gangetic Dolphin

    • The Gangetic river system is home to a vast variety of aquatic life, including the Gangetic dolphin (Platanista gangetica).
    • It is one of five species of river dolphin found around the world.
    • It is found mainly in the Indian subcontinent, particularly in Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna and Karnaphuli-Sangu river systems.
    • An adult dolphin could weigh between 70 kg and 90 kg. The breeding season of the Gangetic dolphin extends from January to June.
    • They feed on several species of fishes, invertebrates etc.

    Indus Dolphin is the divergent specie

    • Currently, they are classified as two subspecies under Platanista gangetica. The study estimates that Indus and Ganges river dolphins may have diverged around 550,000 years ago.
    • The international team studied body growth, skull morphology, tooth counts, colouration and genetic makeup and published the findings last month in Marine Mammal Science.

    Conservation status

    • The Indus and Ganges River dolphins are both classified as ‘Endangered’ species by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).
    • It is the national aquatic animal and had been granted non-human personhood status by the government in 2017.
    • It is also protected under Schedule I of the Wildlife Protection Act (1972).
    • Vikramshila Gangetic Dolphin Sanctuary (VGDS) in Bihar is India’s only sanctuary for the Gangetic dolphin.
    • It has been categorised as endangered on the Red List of Threatened Species by the IUCN
    • Physical barriers such as dams and barrages created across the river, the declining river flows reduced the gene flow to a great extent making the species vulnerable.

  • Give small savers what is due to them

    The article highlights the issues with linking small savings interest rates with the yield on G-sec and its resetting on a quarterly basis.

    Issue of small savings interest rate

    • For decades, small savings have constituted an important source of household savings, funded development programmes of state governments and offered a safe and secure source of income to senior citizens.
    • Recently, a notification on reducing the interest rates on small savings schemes quickly made headlines and was rescinded after 12 hours.
    • For small savers, the pandemic turned into a triple whammy: Battling job losses, higher food prices and a sharp devaluation in the value of their savings and earnings thereof. 
    • Interest on the Senior Citizens’ Saving Scheme was cut to 7.4 per cent, effective from April 2020, from 8.7 per cent before,
    • This was done despite the Gopinath Committee had recommended the rates should never be revised more than 100 basis points in a single year.

    Linking small savings rate to G-sec yields

    • The suggestion to link small savings rates to G-Sec yields was first made in 2001 by Y V Reddy, then deputy governor of RBI.
    • Reddy committee suggested small savings rates should be reset once a year, allowing for a spread of up to 50 basis points.
    • Reddy’s recommendations were reiterated by his successor Rakesh Mohan.
    • The Gopinath Committee,  set up in 2009 gave its report in June 2011 and annual revisions in small savings rates linked to G-sec yields got underway effective April 2012.
    • In 2016, however, the government decided to reset them on a quarterly basis. 

    Why link small savings rate to G-sec yields

    • Such linking is premised on the argument that the money collected through these schemes is invested in central and state government securities. 
    • While the yield on the government securities progressively declined over time, small savings rates remained downwardly rigid.
    • This resulted in an asset-liability mismatch that threatened the viability of the NSSF.
    • It is also argued that people’s dependence on small savings schemes had significantly declined since formal banking had rapidly expanded.
    • Moreover, for those who used small savings as safety nets there were other alternatives such as old-age pension and other similar schemes.

    Issues with resetting rates on quarterly basis

    • All expert committees that examined the issue had strongly argued against resetting the rates on a quarterly basis.
    • The fear was it could result in unfair rewards for small savers in the event the G-sec yields remain artificially low for a certain period of time.
    • It did happen in the pandemic year when small savings rates faced the steepest cut in five years.
    • The changed policy on small savings is also premised on the belief that markets offer fair outcomes.
    • More often than not, that is not true.
    • The experience of the past year bears it out.
    • While retail inflation spiked, the RBI used every trick in its bag to hold G-sec yields down.

    Way forward

    • The government could go back to resetting the rates annually, keeping the revision under 100 basis points and allowing small savings rates a spread of at least 50 basis points, not up to 50 basis points, over and above the G-sec yields.
    • Also, it may revisit the suggestion made by the Rakesh Mohan Committee to use a weighted average of G-sec yields over preceding two years — two-thirds weight for the later year, one-third for the earlier year.

    Consider the question “What was the rationale for linking the interest rates on small savings to yield on G-sec? What are the issues with it?

    Conclusion

    Adopting the changes suggested here may require setting aside a few thousand crores to fill the resultant gap in the NSSF. But it is worth doing.

  • Production of Poppy Straw

    The Central government has decided to rope in the private sector to commence production of concentrated poppy straw from India’s opium crop.

    What is the move?

    • The move aims to boost the yield of alkaloids, used for medical purposes and exported to several countries.
    • Among the few countries permitted to cultivate the opium poppy crop for export and extraction of alkaloids, India currently only extracts alkaloids from opium gum at facilities controlled by the Revenue Department.
    • This entails farmers extracting gum by manually lancing the opium pods and selling the gum to government factories.
    • The Ministry has now decided to switch to new technologies after trial cultivation reports submitted last year by two private firms showed higher extraction of alkaloids using the concentrated poppy straw (CPS).

    Opium Poppy

    • The milky fluid that seeps from cuts in the unripe poppy seed pod has, since ancient times, been scraped off and air-dried to produce what is known as opium.
    • The seedpod is first incised with a multi-bladed tool.
    • This lets the opium “gum” ooze out.
    • The semi-dried “gum” is harvested with a curved spatula and then dried in open wooden boxes.
    • The dried opium resin is placed in bags or rolled into balls for sale.

    Why such a move?

    • India’s opium crop acreage has been steadily declining over the years.
    • The CPS extraction method is expected to help cut the occasional dependence on imports of products like codeine (extracted from opium) for medical uses.

    Amendments to NDPS Act

    • Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are the three traditionally opium-growing States, where poppy crop cultivation is allowed based on licences issued annually by the Central Bureau of Narcotics.
    • While roping in private players in producing CPS and extracting alkaloids from it is likely to require amendments to the Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances (NDPS) Act, 1985.
    • The Revenue Department has decided to appoint a consultant to help frame the bidding parameters and concession agreements for the same.

  • [pib] NanoSniffer: A Microsensor based Explosive Trace Detector

    A Union Minister has launched NanoSniffer, the world’s first Microsensor based Explosive Trace Detector (ETD) developed by NanoSniff Technologies, an IIT Bombay incubated startup.

    Can you name some explosives?

    NanoSniffer

    • NanoSniffer is a 100% Made in India product in terms of research, development & manufacturing.
    • It can detect explosives in less than 10 seconds and it also identifies and categorizes explosives into different classes. It detects all classes of military, conventional and homemade explosives.
    • It gives visible & audible alerts with a sunlight-readable colour display.
    • NanoSniffer provides trace detection of the nano-gram quantity of explosives & delivers result in seconds.
    • It can accurately detect a wide range of military, commercial and homemade explosives threats.
    • Further analysis of the algorithms also helps in the categorization of explosives into the appropriate class.

  • Maoist Attack in Sukma

    The article deals with the counterinsurgency strategies to deal with the issues of left wing extremism in India

    Threat of left-wing extremism

    • The killing of 22 security personnel by Maoists serves as a grim reminder that left-wing insurgency continues to be one of the biggest internal security threats for the country.
    • In the past few years, Maoist violence seemed to have been on a downward spiral.
    • The figures associated with the key indicators of violence like the number of incidents also support the contention that “insurgency is on the downward spiral”.
    • But the attack should thus serve as a wake-up call to those who had begun to get complacent about the Maoist threat.

    Approach in counterinsurgency strategy

    • One school believes that given the Maoist insurgency posturing itself as a “people’s war”, the mandate is for a people-centric approach of “winning hearts and minds”.
    • Others argues that an enemy-centric approach predicated on kinetic operations is best suited for the Maoist insurgency, where the fear of the population seceding from India is remote.
    • The success of the erstwhile state of Andhra Pradesh in curbing the Maoist problem is often attributed to this enemy-centric approach.
    • However, there is robust scholarly work available that shows that the Andhra government based its counterintelligence strategy on a judicious mix of the enemy-centric and population-centric approaches.
    •  Andhra Pradesh had successfully implemented short-gestation-period developmental works in the Maoist-affected rural areas.
    • Moreover, the erstwhile state is also the first state to have a comprehensive surrender-cum-rehabilitation policy.
    • After the 2014 guidelines of the central government were brought out, many states have crafted attractive surrender and rehabilitation policies.
    • Another important question is whether the government should keep the option of talking to Maoists open.
    • The willingness to talk to rebel groups seems to incentivise insurgents and may demonstrate that violence pays.
    • But bringing an end to civil war invariably involves negotiating with the enemy.

    Way forward

    • Indian counterinsurgency has to work with a dual objective of defeating the insurgents militarily and fully quell the insurgent impulses.
    • This will need institutional overhauls.
    • In the last decade or so, insurgency-affected states have started to raise special forces on the lines of Greyhounds.
    • These forces are being given rigorous training in “counter-guerrilla” tactics and jungle warfare.
    •  Besides, the jungles around the interstate borders have always been the preferred hiding spaces for the Maoists.
    •  States must do more to synergise their efforts by launching coordinated operations, thereby denying Maoists any space for manoeuvrability.
    • These efforts need to be supplemented by well-crafted development schemes.
    • It is also important to segregate the population from the insurgents both operationally and ideologically.
    • The conflict over the distribution of resources can be mended with economic development.
    • But the bigger challenge would be to create a system where the tribal population feels that the government is representative, not repressive.
    • Opening negotiation channels and policies like surrender and rehabilitation can give such a representative sense to the rebels.

    Consider the question “Discuss the causes of left wing extremism in India. Suggest the way forward to deal with the issue.”

    Conclusion

    The government needs to follow these policies to end the challenge of left wing extremism from India.

  • Muon G–2 Experiment

    The results from the Muon g-2 experiment show that fundamental particles called muons behave in a way that is not predicted by the Standard Model of particle physics.

    After genetics, AI and the blockchain, Particle Physics is making several headlines these days. This is something intuitive.

    What is Muon?

    • Fermilab, the American particle accelerator, has released first results from its “muon g-2” experiment.
    • These results spotlight the anomalous behaviour of the elementary particle called the muon.
    • The muon is a heavier cousin of the electron and is expected to have a value of 2 for its magnetic moment, labelled “g”.
    • Now, the muon is not alone in the universe.
    • It is embedded in a sea where particles are popping out and vanishing every instant due to quantum effects.
    • So, its g value is altered by its interactions with these short-lived excitations.

    Main characteristic: Anomalous magnetic moment

    • The Standard Model of particle physics calculates this correction, called the anomalous magnetic moment, very accurately.
    • The muon g-2 experiment measured the extent of the anomaly and announced that “g” deviated from the amount predicted by the Standard Model.
    • That is, while the calculated value in the Standard Model is 2.00233183620 approximately, the experimental results show a value of 2.00233184122.
    • They have measured “g” to an accuracy of about 4.2 sigma when the results are combined with those from a 20-year-old experiment.
    • This makes physicists sit up and take note, but it is not yet significant enough to constitute a discovery – for which they need a significance of 5 sigma.

    The g factor

    • The muon is also known as the fat electron.
    • It is produced copiously in the Fermilab experiments and occurs naturally in cosmic ray showers.
    • Like the electron, the muon has a magnetic moment because of which, when placed in a magnetic field, it spins and processes, or wobbles, slightly, like the axis of a spinning top.
    • Its internal magnetic moment, the g factor, determines the extent of this wobble.
    • As the muon spins, it also interacts with the surrounding environment, which consists of short-lived particles popping in and out of a vacuum.

  • Deconstructing declarations of carbon-neutrality

    Against the global clamour for the declaration of carbon neutrality, India must consider several factors and their implications. The article highlights these factors.

    Countries declaring carbon-neutral
    targets

    • At the latest count by the non-profit Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), at the beginning of April, 32 countries had declared, in some documented form.
    • The impetus for such declarations arises from Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement.
    • It is evident that the balance of emissions and removal of greenhouse gases is not sought on a country-wise basis but for the world as a whole.
    • Both developed country governments and civil society outfits commonly state this as an individual commitment by all countries.
    • The text of the Paris Agreement clearly indicates, based on considerations of equity and differentiation, that this is a global goal.

    2 critical and related issues

    • The first is the compatibility of the intent of Article 4.1 and Article 2.
    • 1) Is the achievement of carbon neutrality compatible with achieving the 1.5°C or 2°C goals?
    • And whether the mid-century carbon neutrality goals of developed countries are compatible with Article 2.2 of the Paris Agreement which focuses on equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities.

    The current pledges fall short of achieving the targets

    • Three-way compatibility between temperature goals, carbon neutrality, and equity is not only not guaranteed, but cannot be achieved for the 1.5°C temperature goal at all.
    • Even for the 2°C goal, the current pledges are highly inadequate.
    • This conclusion is based on the global carbon budget.
    • According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report to restrict temperature rise less than 1.5° with 50% world can emit total 480 Giga-tonnes (billion tonnes) of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2eq) from 2018 onwards.
    • At the current rate of emissions of about 42 GtCO2eq per year, this budget would be consumed in 12 years.
    • To keep within the 480 Gt budget, at a steady linear rate of decline, global carbon neutrality must be reached by 2039.
    • For a 50% probability of restricting temperature rise to below 2°C, the world can emit 1,400 GtCO2eq, that provides considerably greater room for manoeuvre.

    Emission of the U.S. and Europe

    • Emissions in the U.S. peaked in 2005 and have declined at an average rate of 1.1% from then till 2017.
    • Even if it did reach net-zero by 2050 at a steady linear rate of reduction, which is unprecedented, its cumulative emissions between 2018 and 2050 would be 106 GtCO2, which is 22% of the total remaining carbon budget for the whole world. [480 GtCO2 total]
    • This is so high that unless others reduced emissions at even faster rates, the world would most certainly cross 1.5°C warming.
    • Similarly, the European Union, to keep to its fair share of the remaining carbon budget would have to reach net-zero by 2033, with a constant annual reduction in emissions.
    • If the EU reaches net-zero only by 2050 it would consume at least 71 GtCO2, well above its fair share.
    • Regrettably, a section of the climate policy modelling literature has promoted the illusion that this three-way compatibility is feasible through speculative “negative emissions”
    • They have also been promoting the other illusion that not resorting to any serious emissions increase at all is the means to guarantee the successful development of the Third World.

    Why India should avoid net neutrality target

    • For one, India has to stay focused on development — both as its immediate need as well as its aspirational goal.
    • While sustainability is desirable, the question of how low India’s future low-carbon development can be is highly uncertain.
    • India’s current low carbon footprint is a consequence of the utter poverty and deprivation of a majority of its population, and not by virtue of sustainability.
    • Second, India does not owe a carbon debt to the world for excessive use in the past.
    • India’s emissions (not considering land use and land use change and forest-related emissions) are no more than 3.5% of global cumulative emissions prior to 1990 and about 5% since till 2018.
    • Any self-sacrificial declaration of carbon neutrality today in the current international scenario would be a wasted gesture reducing the burden of the developed world and transferring it to the backs of the Indian people.

    Consider the question “What are the factor India needs to consider about joining the global chorus on carbon neutrality targets.”

    Conclusion

    India’s approach to eventual net-zero emissions is contingent on deep first world emissions reductions and an adequate and unambiguous global carbon budget. Meanwhile, India must reject any attempt to restrict its options and be led into a low-development trap, based on pseudo-scientific narratives.