Intensifying El Nino to persist until March 2027; strongest ever since 1950, says NOAA

Why in the News

For the first time since records began in the 1950s, sea surface temperatures in the western part of the equatorial Pacific have run more than 4 degrees Celsius above normal. The current El Niño is set to become the strongest since 1950. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a United States federal agency, expects the event to stay “strong” to “very strong” through the first quarter of 2027.

What is El Niño?

1. What it is: El Niño is a naturally occurring warming of the seas along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It works like a fever in one ocean that unsettles weather across the world.
2. Global effects: A warm Pacific changes weather far beyond the ocean itself:
   • it alters rainfall patterns;
   • it pushes temperatures up;
   • it increases wildfires;
   • it brings extreme weather as floods or droughts.
3. Three phases: El Niño is one of three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring swing in Pacific ocean and air conditions. The other two are ENSO-neutral and the cool La Niña.
4. The takeaway: A record El Niño shifts weather risks worldwide, from heat and fires to failed or excess rain.

How far beyond past El Niños could this event go?

1. The yardstick: El Niños are compared on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI, how far sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region of the central equatorial Pacific departs from normal), which also sets the ENSO phase.
2. An ordinary El Niño: A three-month average above 0.5 degree Celsius is enough to declare one.
3. Record territory: A historic event needs +2.5 degrees Celsius or more, five times the declaration level, which would exceed every El Niño recorded since 1950.
4. The takeaway: An El Niño needs only half a degree to be declared; this one is being judged against the +2.5 degree record line, with western Pacific readings already above 4 degrees.

What has NOAA forecast?

1. Still intensifying: NOAA says the current event continues to strengthen. It is set to break all known sea surface temperature records along the equatorial Pacific.
2. Odds of a historic event: NOAA puts the chance of a historic event at about 60% for the October to December and November to January periods.
3. WMO warning: In October, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations agency for weather and climate, warned of “off-the-charts” temperatures. The new readings confirm that warning.

Challenges

1. Monsoon risk: El Niño years have often brought weak southwest monsoon rain to India, which raises the risk of drought.
2. Heat extremes: A record El Niño adds to background warming, so new global temperature records become more likely.
3. Forecast uncertainty: ENSO forecasts made before the northern spring are less reliable, so the event’s course into mid-2027 remains uncertain.

Way Forward

1. Monsoon outlook: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) should track the event’s decay closely and factor it into its 2027 monsoon outlook.
2. Contingency crop plans: States should update district contingency crop plans and seed reserves for a possible weak monsoon.
3. Heat action plans: Cities and States should prepare heat action plans ahead of the coming summer.

Conclusion

A record-breaking warming of the Pacific is under way and has yet to peak. Watch NOAA’s monthly ENSO updates for signs of the event weakening, and the IMD’s first monsoon forecast for its likely effect on India.

Back2Basics: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

1. Status: NOAA is a United States federal agency under the US Department of Commerce, set up in 1970. It is not a United Nations body.
2. Mandate: It monitors and forecasts the oceans, the atmosphere, weather and climate.
3. ENSO outlooks: Its Climate Prediction Center issues the monthly ENSO forecasts on which this outlook rests.

Matching Previous Year Question

“[2011] La Nina is suspected to have caused recent floods in Australia. How is La Nina different from EI Nino? 1. La Nina is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperature in the equatorial Indian ocean whereas EI Nino is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. 2. EI Nino has an adverse effect on the southwest monsoon of India, but La Nina has no effect on monsoon climate. Which of the statements given above is/are correct? (a) 1 only (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2 ANSWER: (d)”