Introduction

For 65 years, the Indus Waters Treaty ensured the uninterrupted sharing of river waters between India and Pakistan despite wars and conflicts. Signed in 1960, with the World Bank as broker, it granted Pakistan control over nearly 80% of the Indus system waters while India retained rights over the eastern rivers. Yet, this arrangement, hailed by Nehru as a “gesture of peace,” was also criticized as appeasement. Today, the Treaty faces an existential challenge, as India, for the first time, suspends its obligations in response to cross-border terrorism. A fresh evaluation of the IWT reveals that Pakistan’s real concern is not water scarcity but the control of flows, a factor deeply tied to its obsession with Kashmir.

Why in the News

India, after decades of restraint, has finally exercised its strategic upper riparian advantage by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty following the April Pahalgam terror attack. This is a watershed moment: for the first time in 65 years, the Treaty, which survived four wars, terror attacks, and political turmoil, has been placed in abeyance. The move underscores a shift from India’s earlier magnanimity to a more assertive posture. It is significant because it challenges one of the few stable frameworks of India–Pakistan relations and introduces water as a core strategic lever, alongside terrorism and Kashmir.

Why was the Indus Waters Treaty so Significant?

1. Historic endurance: The Treaty survived four wars, repeated terror attacks, and decades of hostility.
2. Unique distribution: Pakistan received 80% of Indus waters (western rivers) despite being the lower riparian.
3. Nehru’s vision: Seen as a stabilizing act of peace, prioritizing development over disputes.
4. Pakistan’s insecurity: Never fully celebrated, fearing India’s control as upper riparian.

How Do India and Pakistan Perceive the Treaty Differently?

1. India’s approach: Saw the Treaty as magnanimity; Nehru called it a “purchase of peace.”
2. Criticism of India: S Jaishankar terms it appeasement, not peace.
3. Pakistan’s strategy: Used Article IX dispute mechanism to obstruct Indian projects in J&K.
4. Silent dissatisfaction: Despite receiving 80% waters, Pakistan avoided declaring victory to maintain a narrative of victimhood.

What Drives Pakistan’s Deep Insecurity?

1. Not water, but control: Pakistan’s fear lies in disruption of flows, not absolute shortage.
2. Kashmir link: To control rivers, Pakistan desires physical control of J&K.
3. Historic evidence: Gen Ayub Khan soon after the Treaty linked water insecurity with demand for Kashmir.
4. Perverse use of IWT: Constant attempts to delay Indian projects in J&K despite India’s limited use of western rivers.

Why Did the Treaty Survive for So Long?

1. India’s responsibility: As the upper riparian, India ensured minimum flows and shared data.
2. Asymmetry of burden: Pakistan had little responsibility upstream but leveraged dispute clauses downstream.
3. Counterfactual concern: Survival of Treaty is doubtful if Pakistan had been upper riparian.
4. Symbol of stability: Often cited globally as a model of cooperative water-sharing.

What Could the Future Hold for the IWT?

1. Pakistan’s likely strategy: Stonewall renegotiations, fearing worse outcomes.
2. India’s new stance: Seeks bilateral renegotiation without World Bank involvement.
3. Regional dimension: Pakistan may attempt to involve China (8% basin) and Afghanistan (6% basin).
4. Strategic uncertainty: India may not disrupt flows but could introduce uncertainty, forcing Pakistan to rethink its terror policy.
5. J&K projects: India likely to push through delayed hydro and irrigation projects without Pakistani consent.

Conclusion

The IWT, once a symbol of cooperation, now mirrors the fault lines of India–Pakistan relations. For decades, India upheld its obligations even at strategic cost. But by suspending the Treaty, India has signaled that goodwill cannot be one-sided, especially in the face of relentless terrorism. Water, development, security, and Kashmir are now deeply intertwined. The Indus basin, instead of being a bridge, risks becoming another battlefield in South Asia’s fraught geopolitics.

PYQ Relevance

[UPSC 2015] Terrorist activities and mutual distrust have clouded India–Pakistan relations. To what extent the use of soft power like sports and cultural exchanges could help generate goodwill between the two countries? Discuss with suitable examples.

Linkage: The Indus Waters Treaty itself was long considered a form of institutionalized soft power, surviving wars and terror. However, its suspension after the Pahalgam attack highlights how terrorism erodes even cooperative mechanisms. Just as cultural exchanges aim to build goodwill, water-sharing too depended on mutual trust — and both reveal how soft power collapses when hostility dominates.

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