Introduction

India-Russia relations have historically been marked by defence cooperation, political trust, and strategic convergence. However, the global context surrounding President Putin’s December 2024 visit, his first after the Ukraine conflict, has introduced new complexities. India now navigates sanctions pressure, energy dependencies, defence shortfalls, and the need to sustain balanced relations with both the West and Russia.

Why in the News? 

President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India on 4-5 December for the 23rd Annual Summit is significant as it is his first visit since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This is a period marked by sanctions, slowed defence supplies, and shifting global alignments. India-Russia bilateral trade crossed $63.8 billion, but sanctions on Russian energy and secondary sanctions on Indian companies now threaten the $100-billion trade target.

The Evolution of India-Russia Strategic Ties

1. Historical Convergence: New Delhi and Moscow shared close ties since the Soviet era, with Russia supporting India post-1998 sanctions.
2. Defence Legacy: 60% of India’s defence inventory remains of Russian origin; legacy platforms need regular servicing and spares.
3. Diversification Effort: India expanded its partnerships with the US, Europe, and others for technology, security, and economic needs.
4. Stable Political Understanding: Leadership-level engagement remained consistent, even during geopolitical disruptions.

Why Defence Remains the Core Pillar

1. Legacy Equipment: India still requires servicing and spares for Russian-origin systems; replacement is slow.
2. S-400 Delivery Issues: Russia was expected to deliver five S-400 units, but deliveries slowed due to the Ukraine war.
3. Sanctions Impact: Sanctions on Russia impaired its ability to manufacture cutting-edge defence systems, reducing India’s supply reliability.
4. Strategic Risk: The disruption compelled India to diversify procurement to Western partners.

How Have Economic and Energy Ties Changed?

1. Discounted Oil Purchases: Post-Ukraine, India bought discounted Russian crude, helping control domestic fuel prices.
2. Trade Surge: Bilateral trade increased from $6.87 billion (FY24) to $63.8 billion last year, driven by oil imports.
3. Trade Imbalance: India’s imports massively exceed exports; Russia aims to boost Indian exports to reach $100 billion bilateral trade.
4. Secondary Sanctions Risk: US sanctions forced Indian companies to exit Russian shipping and oil-related operations.

What is Expected During the Upcoming Visit?

1. Controlled Optics: No large-scale pageantry; Modi-Putin meeting likely private and focused.
2. Limited Public Events: No public address or mass interactions expected.
3. West’s Scrutiny: US and Europe closely monitor the visit given ongoing tensions over Ukraine.
4. Agenda Items: Defence delivery timelines, energy cooperation, and trade balance to dominate.

How is India Balancing Russia and the West?

1. Eastern Partnership: Russia remains key for defence hardware and strategic autonomy.
2. Western Engagement: India deepened cooperation with the US and Europe in technology, capital, and mobility corridors.
3. Strategic Autonomy: India maintains multi-alignment, ensuring no relationship becomes exclusive.
4. Domestic Aspiration: India seeks high-technology and economic opportunities for a modernising population.

Conclusion

India-Russia relations enter a phase of recalibration shaped by sanctions, defence supply constraints, and India’s deepening Western partnerships. Yet, the historical trust, defence legacy, and energy complementarity ensure that Russia remains relevant for India. The challenge lies in sustaining a realistic, interest-driven relationship while managing Western scrutiny and domestic strategic needs.

PYQ Relevance

[UPSC 2020] What is the significance of Indo-US defence deals over Indo-Russian defence deals? Discuss with reference to stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

Linkage: The question reflects India’s growing shift from Russian to US defence partnerships discussed in the article. It connects these defence ties to India’s role in ensuring stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

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