The challenge of holding the Quad together

Why in the News

Leaders of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), India, Australia, Japan and the United States (U.S.), are expected to meet in Manila in November on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit. It would be their first summit since Donald Trump began his second term as U.S. President, after a year in which shifting U.S. priorities strained the group.

Why does the Manila summit matter for the Quad?

1. A group without a secretariat: The Quad has neither a permanent bureaucracy nor an institutional framework of its own. Like a club that exists through its meetings, it relies on summits to reaffirm its purpose and set its agenda.
2. First in two years: The U.S. Secretary of State has announced the summit. It would be the first since Wilmington in 2024, and the first for Japan’s new Prime Minister.
3. Venue shift: India was expected to host the next summit. Manila’s hosting instead reinforces ASEAN centrality, the principle that Southeast Asian states sit at the centre of the regional order.
4. Philippines as host: The Philippines faces ongoing sovereignty disputes with China. Leaders are expected to stress sovereignty in the South and East China Seas and international law.
5. The takeaway: A summit is the Quad’s main sign of life, so Manila tests whether the U.S. still backs it at the top.

How did the Quad survive a turbulent 2025?

1. Strain without collapse: Washington’s shifting priorities and strained ties with Quad members, especially India, made 2025 a low point. The group did not collapse.
2. What IPMDA does: The Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA) initiative gives partners satellite tracking of ships that switch off their transponders, the radio beacons that report a ship’s position.
3. Maritime surveillance upgrade: IPMDA was elevated to the Indo-Pacific Maritime Surveillance Collaboration framework, launched in New Delhi in May 2026 after the Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting.
4. Foreign ministers kept meeting: Quad foreign ministers met twice in Washington in 2025. In 2026 they met in New Delhi, Manila and Atlanta.

Why are partners unsure of Washington?

1. First term record: The Quad was revived in 2017, during Trump’s first term. The U.S. Pacific Command was also renamed the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.
2. Second term priorities: Trump’s priorities now lie in the Russia-Ukraine war, ties with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the war in West Asia.
3. Burden sharing: U.S. demands that transatlantic allies carry more of the security burden have worried Indo-Pacific partners too.
4. AUKUS review: The White House review of AUKUS, the Australia, U.K. and U.S. pact to equip Australia with nuclear powered submarines, has added uncertainty.
5. Still a major actor: The U.S. remains a significant security actor, especially in the Pacific, where several partners rely on its security alliances.

How are partners hedging, and why does Washington still matter?

1. Japan’s OCEAN: Through its One Cooperative Effort Among Nations (OCEAN) framework, Japan builds closer security ties with partners and changes its post-war security posture.
2. Australia’s partnerships: Australia is strengthening defence ties with India, Japan, Southeast Asia and Pacific Island countries to deter China’s growing footprint.
3. India’s multi-alignment: India diversifies defence and strategic ties with like-minded states across the Indian Ocean and the Indo-Pacific.
4. Trilaterals and new entrants: The Japan-Australia-India (JAI) Defence Ministers’ meeting in Cebu shows a will to deepen ties regardless of Washington. France is also building regional ties.
5. Why the U.S. still counts: China’s expanding maritime footprint keeps the U.S. role critical, especially in the Taiwan Strait, a key flashpoint.

Challenges

1. Leader level attention: The U.S. President’s engagement decides whether the Quad moves beyond ministerial routine.
2. India-U.S. strain: Strained bilateral ties with India weaken the group’s core.
3. No institutional anchor: Without a secretariat, momentum lapses whenever a summit is skipped.

Way Forward

1. Reset U.S. posture: Use the Manila visit to reset the U.S. posture in the region and affirm the Quad’s stand against Chinese belligerence.
2. Concrete deliverables: Set measurable targets for the maritime surveillance framework at the summit.
3. Work between summits: Keep senior officials’ meetings regular so projects continue when leaders do not meet.

Conclusion

The Quad has survived U.S. distraction by working through ministers and maritime projects, but it still depends on the American President’s attention. Manila will show whether Washington resets its regional posture or leaves partners to keep hedging.

Quad Initiatives beyond Maritime Surveillance

1. Critical Minerals Initiative (July 2025): Diversifies critical mineral supply chains among the four members, since China dominates refining.
2. Malabar exercise: Japan joined permanently in 2015, and Malabar now brings all four navies together.

Matching Previous Year Question

“[2026, GS2, 10 marks] “IPMDA (Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness) bridges the gap between India’s SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) vision and the Quad’s collective Indo-Pacific strategy.” Make a critical assessment of the statement focusing on IPMDA.”