Subject: GroupingsXRegional

The QUAD, comprising India, the USA, Japan, and Australia, was established in 2007 to ensure a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific. In the context of the rise of ‘assertive’ China, it has undergone a strategic evolution.

QUAD Is Not a Formal Military Alliance

No Mutual Defence Pact – Unlike NATO, QUAD lacks Article 5-type commitment.

Strategic Autonomy emphasis – India, especially, avoids military alliances.

Soft-Balancing Mechanism – Focuses on shaping behavior, not confrontation.

Diverse focus areas – USA and Japan focused on Pacific whereas India’s focus is on IOR

Official Denial of Military Intent- QUAD is not directed against any country, but for a free and open Indo-Pacific. (PM Modi)

QUAD’s Shift from Military to Economic-Trade Focus

Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI, 2021) to reduce dependence on China-centric supply chains. Eg- Semiconductor collaboration and clean energy supply chains.

Critical and Emerging Technologies – EG- QUAD working groups on 5G/6G, AI, quantum computing, biotechnology, and cybersecurity seeks to ensure secure and transparent digital trade.

Quad Critical Minerals Initiative to collaborate on securing and diversifying critical mineral supply chains.

Partnership for Infrastructure (PFI) promotes high-quality, sustainable, and transparent infrastructure as an alternative to China’s BRI.

Climate and Clean Energy Cooperation – QUAD Climate Working Group focuses on green shipping, renewable technologies, and disaster resilience.

The QUAD Vaccine Partnership (2021) aimed to produce and distribute 1 billion COVID-19 vaccines across the Indo-Pacific.

The Blue Dot Network (BDN),, certifies infrastructure projects that meet high standards of transparency, sustainability, and quality. Seen as a counterweight to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) led by Japan, to ensure freedom of navigation, connectivity, and economic prosperity.

Strategic and Military cooperation

Joint Naval Exercises enhancing maritime interoperability and situational awareness. Eg- Malabar Exercise

Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA) initiative (2022) – shares satellite data for maritime security and anti-piracy operations.

“Quad-at-Sea Ship Observer Mission” for strengthening interoperability and knowledge-sharing to address unlawful maritime activities across the Indo-Pacific.

Defence Technology Collaboration- Partnerships in defence manufacturing, undersea cables, and maritime surveillance technology.

As pointed out by S. Jaishankar, “more focused Quad” will “help deliver better” and help realise rules-based international order

The AUKUS alliance, launched in 2021, is a security partnership between Australia, the UK, and the US aimed at countering China’s assertiveness. It reflects a new phase of minilateralism.

Strength and Impact of AUKUS in countering China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region

Nuclear Submarine Pact: Enables Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, enhancing undersea deterrence against China.

Advanced Technology Sharing: Cooperation in AI, cyber warfare, quantum computing, and hypersonic weapons.

Military Integration: Strengthens interoperability and intelligence sharing through Five Eyes alignment.

Strategic Geography: Expands Western military reach across the South China Sea and Indian Ocean.

Deterrence Architecture: Reinforces U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy and balances China’s maritime expansion.

A stronger Australia aligns with India’s interest to counter China’s ‘String of Pearls’ strategy in the Indian Ocean.

AUKUS Superseding Existing Partnerships

May undermine the QUAD’s balanced agenda, tilting regional focus toward militarization.

Weakens ASEAN centrality, creating apprehensions about regional autonomy.

Creates trust deficit with France (after Australia canceled its French submarine deal).

It may weaken the Five Eyes alliance – Eg- New Zealand has shown displeasure over AUKUS.

Other Issues with AUKUS

Risk of nuclear proliferation due to the transfer of nuclear submarine technology to a non-nuclear weapon state.

Exclusionary alliance, leaving out India, Japan, and ASEAN nations.

Potential arms race between US-led and China-Russia blocs.

Perception of ‘Anglosphere dominance’, limiting inclusivity in regional security frameworks.

China–Russia axis may strengthen – China called it as “wrong and dangerous path”

Way Forward

Align with Quad and ASEAN-led mechanisms to ensure synergy.

Inclusive Security Architecture by incorporating voices from South and Southeast Asia.

Confidence-Building Measures among China, ASEAN, and other regional actors to avoid escalation.

AUKUS marks the reemergence of power geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific. It must evolve through consultation and cooperation to ensure that it complements rather than fragments the Indo-Pacific strategic order.

Africa is emerging as the next frontier of global growth, driven by its demography, market, and natural resources.

Asia’s Growth Story

Asia’s share in global GDP rose from 25% (1990) to 45% (2024)

Intra-Asian trade accounts for 60% of total exports (ADB, 2024).

Demographic Dividend- Asia houses 60% of global population; India’s median age – 28 years

Technological Hubs- India’s IT sector, China’s manufacturing, and ASEAN’s digital economies.

Regional Platforms- Success of ASEAN, RCEP, and ADB

Why the Next Few Decades Could Belong to Africa

Demographic Potential- Africa to host 25% of global population by 2050, with the youngest median age (19 years).

Resource Abundance- Rich reserves of critical minerals (lithium, cobalt, platinum) vital for energy transition.

Economic Growth- Sub-Saharan Africa projected to grow at 4.0% annually (IMF, 2024-2030) – led by Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia.

Regional Integration- African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) connects 1.3 billion people across 54 nations.

Digital Leapfrogging- Africa’s fintech sector expanding by 30% CAGR, supported by Indian investments in Airtel Africa and UPI collaborations.

India’s Influence in Africa- Examination

Way Forward

Develop an integrated “India-Africa Strategy 2030”

Expand Diplomatic Footprint – increase frequency of high-level summits and ministerial dialogues

Capacity Building 2.0- Expand ITEC 2.0 for emerging fields like AI, climate tech, and fintech.

As PM Modi said at IAFS 2015, “Our partnership is beyond strategic – it is human-centric, empowering, and future-facing.”

The I2U2 grouping was formalized in 2022 as a minilateral platform to promote cooperation in food security, energy, technology, and infrastructure. It is termed as the West Asian Quad.

Six Key Areas of Cooperation

Health

Water

Energy

Transportation

Food Security

Space

I2U2 Transforming India’s Position in Global Politics

Geopolitical Transformation

Positions India as a bridge between the Indo-Pacific and West Asia, linking Act East and Link West policies.

Strategic autonomy – cooperation with the US and Israel while maintaining relations with Iran and the Arab world.

Elevates India as a regional stabilizer in a volatile West Asian geopolitical landscape.

Countering China’s influence in West Asia

Geoeconomic Dimension

Joint investments in infrastructure, energy, and food security. Eg- UAE funding a $2 billion food corridor in Gujarat.

Integrates India into emerging West Asia–Indo-Pacific supply chains.

Defence and Security Cooperation

Strengthens intelligence sharing and counterterrorism collaboration.

Supports maritime security and enhances India’s strategic depth in the Western Indian Ocean region.

Connectivity and Infrastructure

Aligns with India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).

Enhances security in chokepoints like the Suez Canal.

Enhances India’s credibility as a reliable partner in minilateral frameworks (Quad, BRICS, SCO, G20).

Challenges Associated with I2U2

Complex strategic balancing: Balancing ties with Iran while deepening cooperation with US–Israel–UAE bloc.

Regional Instability: Ongoing Israel–Palestine conflict and tensions in Iran–US relations.

Limited Institutional Framework: Absence of a formal secretariat or enforcement mechanism.

Uncertainty of US Leadership under Trump

China may view I2U2 as a containment alliance, increasing competition in West Asia.

Way Forward

Institutionalize I2U2 with clear mechanisms for project implementation and funding.

Leverage the platform to promote peace and stability in the region.

Expand the agenda to include climate resilience, humanitarian aid, and disaster response.

Strengthen linkages with Quad, IMEC, and G20 initiatives.

The I2U2 marks a paradigm shift in India’s diplomacy and emergence as a bridge nation between East and West, consolidating its role as a key pillar in 21st-century multipolar global politics.