Why in the News?
A new ETH Zurich study warns that under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 scenario, warming could make cyclones more intense and hit unusual regions with greater damage.
What are Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)?
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About SSP5-8.5 and Cyclone Risks:
- Scenario Summary: SSP5 shows rapid economic growth fuelled by fossil fuels.
- Radiative Forcing: SSP5-8.5 implies 8.5 W/m² of energy, compared to about 2.7 W/m² today.
- Climate Target Gap: To limit warming below 2°C, forcing must stay around 2.6 W/m².
- Cyclone Projections: Using the CLIMADA (climate adaptation) AI model, scientists studied past cyclone patterns and projected risks from 2015–2050.
- Ecoregion Types:
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- Resilient: Often affected, but recover quickly
- Dependent: Moderately impacted and adaptive
- Vulnerable: Rarely hit but slow to recover
- Findings:
- Time between severe cyclones in resilient areas may drop from 19 to 12 years.
- East Asia, Central America, and the Caribbean will face stronger, more frequent cyclones.
- Madagascar, Oceania, and the Philippines will face unprecedented cyclone activity.
Impact on Mangroves and Coastal Ecosystems:
- Mangrove Risk: By 2100, up to 56% of global mangroves could be at high to severe risk.
- Most Affected Region: Southeast Asia, with 52–78% of mangroves at risk.
- Other Scenario Impact (SSP3-7.0): Even under less severe warming, 97–98% of protective mangroves in Southeast Asia could still face critical threats.
- Environmental Concern: These losses would severely weaken coastal protection, biodiversity, and carbon storage.
| [UPSC 2020] Consider the following statements:
1. Jet streams occur in the Northern Hemisphere only. 2. Only some cyclones develop an eye. 3. The temperature inside the eye of a cyclone is nearly 10°C lesser than that of the surroundings. Which of the statements given above is/are correct? Options: (a) 1 only (b) 2 and 3 only (c) 2 only* (d) 1 and 3 only |
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