Capital Markets: Challenges and Developments

Why has net FDI inflow plummeted?

Why in the News?

The RBI Bulletin (May 2025) reports that India received a record-breaking $81 billion in gross FDI inflows in FY 2024-25, but retained only $353 million in net FDI, revealing a dramatic divergence in the investment narrative.

What do gross and net FDI trends indicate about India’s investment climate?

  • Gross FDI inflows are high: India received a record $81 billion in gross FDI in 2024-25, indicating strong headline interest from foreign investors. Eg: Media and government reported this as a sign of a robust investment climate.
  • Net FDI is drastically low: Net FDI dropped to only $353 million, showing that much of the incoming investment is offset by capital outflows, weakening the real impact on the economy. Eg: Rising outward FDI and disinvestment reduced net foreign capital retained in India.
  • Declining FDI-to-GDP ratio: The gross inflow-to-GDP ratio fell from 3.1% (2020-21) to 2.1% (2024-25), and net FDI-to-GDP fell from 1.6% to near zero, reflecting a slowing domestic investment environment despite high gross inflows. Eg: This signals tepid corporate investment and cautious investor sentiment in India.

What is  Private Equity (PE) and Venture Capital (VC)?

  • Private Equity (PE) refers to investment funds that buy existing companies or large stakes in businesses, often to improve their performance and later sell them for profit. PE typically invests in more mature companies.
  • Venture Capital (VC) is a type of financing that supports early-stage startups and small businesses with high growth potential. VC investors take higher risks in exchange for potentially high returns.

Why is the rise in Private Equity (PE)/Venture Capital (VC) driven FDI a concern for long-term investment?

  • PE/VC-driven FDI focuses on brownfield investments: These funds mainly acquire existing firms rather than creating new production capacity, limiting contributions to capital formation and technology acquisition. Eg: Investments by Blackstone in Care Hospitals and ChrysCapital in Lenskart.
  • Short investment horizon: PE/VC funds typically have a 3-5 year exit strategy, often selling holdings during stock market booms, which leads to disinvestment rather than sustained growth. Eg: The spike in disinvestment in FY25 was partly due to PE/VC funds liquidating their positions.
  • Limited impact on long-term industrial growth: Since these funds focus on services like fintech and retail rather than manufacturing or infrastructure, they contribute less to enhancing India’s productive capacity. Eg: The declining share of FDI in greenfield projects shows limited greenfield capital formation.

How does outward FDI suggest India is used for tax arbitrage?

  • High correlation between inward and outward FDI: India shows a strong link between the money flowing in and out, suggesting that funds often enter and exit quickly rather than being invested long-term. Eg: Similar volumes of FDI both coming into and going out of India.
  • Use of tax havens as intermediaries: A significant portion of both inward and outward FDI involves countries like Singapore and Mauritius, known for tax concessions and treaty benefits. Eg: Many Indian companies route investments through these jurisdictions to reduce tax liabilities.
  • ‘Treaty shopping’ for tax benefits: Global investors move capital through India to exploit variations in tax laws, a practice called tax arbitrage, which may not contribute to domestic economic growth. Eg: Research shows India ranked 6th among emerging markets for such correlated FDI flows, indicating use as a conduit for tax optimization.

What are the effects of declining FDI-to-GDP and GFCF ratios?

  • Reduced contribution to economic growth: Declining FDI-to-GDP and FDI-to-GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) ratios indicate that foreign investments are becoming a smaller part of India’s overall economy and capital investment, potentially slowing down industrial expansion and technology adoption. Eg: Gross FDI inflows peaked at 7.5% of GFCF in FY21 but have declined sharply since then.
  • Weakening investor confidence: The downward trend signals tepid domestic corporate investment and reduced foreign investor interest, which can affect job creation and long-term economic stability. Eg: Net FDI relative to GDP has declined from 1.6% in 2020-21 to nearly zero in 2024-25, showing declining investor enthusiasm.

Why should India reform its foreign capital regulations?

  • To curb tax arbitrage and ‘hot money’ flows: Current regulations allow large volumes of inward and outward FDIthrough tax havens, enabling tax optimization rather than genuine investment, which undermines domestic economic goals. Eg: High FDI flows involving Singapore and Mauritius reflect such practices.
  • To promote long-term, productive investments: Reform is needed to encourage FDI that contributes to capital formation, technology acquisition, and industrial growth rather than short-term PE/VC-driven disinvestment. Eg: The rising share of alternative investment funds in FDI has led to increased disinvestment, affecting sustainable growth.

Way forward: 

  • Strengthen Regulatory Frameworks: Implement stricter rules to curb tax arbitrage and limit quick inflows and outflows via tax havens, ensuring FDI supports genuine, long-term economic growth.
  • Promote Greenfield and Productive Investments: Encourage FDI in new capacity building, manufacturing, and technology sectors over short-term PE/VC deals to boost capital formation, industrial growth, and sustainable development.

Mains PYQ:

[UPSC 2013] Though India allowed Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in what is called multi-brand retail through the joint venture route in September 2012, the FDI, even after a year, has not picked up. Discuss the reasons.

Linkage: The net FDI-to-GDP ratio has steadily fallen from 1.6% in 2020-21 to zero in 2024-25. This ongoing decline is worrying, even though policymakers continue to make optimistic claims.

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