Worst of El Nino yet to come, peak likely in December, says UN body

Why in the News

India’s 2026 monsoon deficit was only the first stage of El Nino (a periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean that shifts weather worldwide), which is still strengthening and has not yet peaked. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UN agency for weather and climate, says it is “firmly established and strengthening rapidly”. Droughts, floods and above average temperatures are the main risks.

What is El Nino, and how is it declared?

1. What it is: El Nino is a climate pattern in which Pacific waters turn unusually warm and disrupt weather across the world.
2. ENSO cycle: It is the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural ocean and atmosphere cycle that recurs every two to seven years. The other phases are neutral and cool (La Nina).
3. How it is declared: Sea temperatures in the Nino 3.4 patch of the equatorial central Pacific, the gauge of the ENSO cycle, must exceed normal by more than 0.5 degrees Celsius, like a fever reading for the ocean.
4. Effect on rain and heat: El Nino is known to suppress rainfall over India and many other places, which causes droughts. It also pushes temperatures well above average.
5. The takeaway: A warm patch of ocean far from India can cut its rain and raise its heat, which is why Pacific readings matter to Indian farmers.

What has the WMO forecast?

1. Peak and duration: El Nino will peak between October and December and then extend well into the 2027 spring of the northern hemisphere.
2. Persistence: WMO forecasts show a near 100 per cent likelihood that El Nino persists through February 2027.
3. Strength: It could be one of the strongest events since at least 1950.
4. Ocean heat: Equatorial Pacific sea temperatures have risen dramatically in recent months, which shows the event intensifying. In August the Nino 3.4 region stood 2.5 degrees Celsius above normal.
5. Risks: Normal rainfall patterns will shift as El Nino intensifies. This raises the risk of both droughts and floods.

What has this year’s weather already shown?

1. India’s monsoon: It ended with a 13 per cent rainfall deficit, the fourth driest since 2001. El Nino affected rainfall in the second half of the season.
2. Drought in States: Many States, including Maharashtra and Karnataka, have declared drought. Maharashtra has imposed a 10 per cent water cut in many districts.
3. Europe’s summer: Europe had one of its hottest summers, with record temperatures in France, Spain and the UK, and the Danube, Rhine and Thames ran dry.

Challenges

1. Food prices: Weaker rains cut farm output and push up food prices. Eg. The Asian Development Bank has warned of higher food inflation.
2. Edible oil imports: El Nino can cut domestic edible oil output, so India imports more and absorbs world price swings. Eg. Imports could reach a record 17.2 million tonnes next season.
3. Winter air pollution: A strong El Nino can slow winds over north India and block western disturbances (winter rain systems), trapping pollutants. Eg. A National Institute of Advanced Studies study found slower winds.

Way Forward

1. Contingency crop plans: State agriculture departments should activate drought contingency plans for the winter sowing season, favouring crops that need little water.
2. Early warnings: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) should pass seasonal and monthly forecasts to farmers through State agriculture departments before sowing decisions are made.
3. Water budgeting: States should reserve reservoir water for drinking first and schedule irrigation releases around it.
4. Stocks and trade policy: The Centre should use buffer stocks and calibrated import duties to hold down prices of cereals, pulses and edible oils.

Conclusion

El Nino has moved from a forecast to a lived event, and its strongest phase is still ahead. The next marker is the WMO’s update on when the event begins to fade, which will show how long drought hit States must wait for relief.

Back2Basics: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

1. Formation and base: Founded in 1950, with its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland.
2. Mandate: A specialised UN agency that promotes international cooperation in atmospheric science, climatology, hydrology and geophysics.
3. Flagship report: It publishes the State of the Global Climate every year.

Matching Previous Year Question

“[2017] With reference to ‘Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)’ sometimes mentioned in the news while forecasting Indian monsoon, which of the following statements is/are correct? 1. IOD phenomenon is characterized by a difference in sea surface temperature between tropical Western Indian Ocean and tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. 2. An IOD phenomenon can influence an El Nino’s impact on the monsoon. Select the correct answer using the code given below: (a) 1 only (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2 ANSWER: (b)”