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  • India and Costa Rica Hold First JETCO Meeting

    Why in News?

    India and Costa Rica held the first Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETCO) meeting virtually on 6 to 7 July 2026 to deepen bilateral trade and investment ties.

    Key Highlights

    • Bilateral merchandise trade reached USD 391 million in 2025-26.
    • Both sides reviewed trade, investment, and regulatory frameworks.
    • Cooperation areas include:
      • Standards and certification
      • Food safety
      • Pharmaceutical regulation
      • Export certification
    • India highlighted opportunities in pharmaceuticals, digital technologies, manufacturing, and innovation.
    • Costa Rica shared its experience in Central American regional trade integration.

    What is JETCO?

    • A bilateral mechanism established under the MoU on Economic Cooperation.
    • It reviews trade and investment, resolves trade issues, and promotes business, regulatory, and institutional cooperation.

    Significance

    • Strengthens India’s engagement with Latin America.
    • Facilitates trade by reducing non-tariff barriers.
    • Expands opportunities in high-value sectors and innovation.

    Prelims Facts

    • Capital: San José
    • Currency: Costa Rican Colón
    • Region: Central America
    • No standing army since 1948.

    [2023] Which one of the following countries has been suffering from decades of civil strife and food shortages and was in news in the recent past for its very severe famine?

    [A] Angola

    [B] Costa Rica

    [C] Ecuador

    [D] Somalia

  • Foreign relations with Latin America

  • [7th July 2026] The Hindu OpED: In India, voting cannot remain merely a statutory right 

    [UPSC 2024] Examine the need for electoral reforms as suggested by various committees with particular reference to ‘one nation-one election’ principle.
    Linkage: The PYQ examines reforms required to strengthen India’s electoral democracy and democratic participation.The article argues that constitutional recognition of the right to vote is a foundational electoral reform that would strengthen free and fair elections and deepen democratic legitimacy

    Mentor’s Comment

    A Congress leader has revived the demand to recognise voting as a fundamental right, reopening a settled constitutional debate. The demand exposes a growing inconsistency between the Supreme Court’s insistence that voting remains a mere statutory right and its own decisions constitutionalising nearly every facet surrounding the vote.

    Why has the Supreme Court traditionally treated the right to vote as a statutory right rather than a fundamental right?

    1. Foundational ruling: N.P. Ponnuswami vs Returning Officer (1952) held that the right to vote is not a common law right. Parliament created this right through statute.
    2. Reaffirmation: Jyoti Basu vs Debi Ghosal (1982) held the right to elect is “purely a statutory right.” Justice O. Chinnappa Reddy denied it the status of a fundamental right.
    3. Constitution Bench position: Kuldip Nayar vs Union of India (2006) held that democracy forms part of the basic structure (basic structure doctrine: the principle that certain core features of the Constitution cannot be altered even by a constitutional amendment). It held that the individual right to vote flows from the Representation of the People Acts, not from the Constitution.
    4. Textual basis: Part III of the Constitution does not list the right to vote among the fundamental rights.
    5. Parliamentary latitude: This textual silence gives Parliament wide discretion. Parliament prescribes qualifications, disqualifications, and procedures for elections.

    How has judicial interpretation constitutionalised individual facets of voting, and what anomaly does this create?

    1. Right to know: Union of India vs Association for Democratic Reforms (2002) held that voters have a right to know the criminal antecedents, educational qualifications, and financial assets of candidates. The Court grounded this right in Article 19(1)(a).
    2. Freedom to choose: People’s Union of Civil Liberties vs Union of India (2003) held that the freedom to make an informed choice is a fundamental right under Article 19(1)(a). The Court retained the position that the right to vote itself is statutory.
    3. Right to reject: The 2013 NOTA judgment held that a voter’s decision to reject all candidates is political expression protected by Article 19(1)(a). The Court extended ballot secrecy to voters who choose not to vote for any candidate.
    4. Emerging judicial view: Justice Ajay Rastogi’s separate opinion in Anoop Baranwal vs Union of India (2023) favoured recognising voting as a fundamental right. This view did not command a majority on the Constitution Bench.
    5. Resulting anomaly: The Court has made the right to know, the freedom to choose, and the right to reject all candidates fundamental. The act of voting itself remains a mere statutory entitlement.
    6. Logical inconsistency: The Constitution protects the right to reject every candidate. Denying protection to the right to choose one is incongruous.

    Does recognising a Fundamental Right to vote require removing Parliament’s power to regulate elections?

    1. Limited scope of the claim: Constitutional recognition is not required for every procedural detail of voting. It is required only for the core right to participate in the democratic process.
    2. Regulatory power retained: Parliament continues to prescribe qualifications, disqualifications, and age requirements for elections. Electoral rolls and residency conditions also remain within Parliament’s domain.
    3. Corrupt practices regulation: Disqualification for corrupt practices remains a statutory matter. This regulation is necessary for orderly elections.
    4. Entitlement distinguished from mechanics: The mechanics of voting may remain statutory. The citizen’s underlying entitlement to be a voter need not.

    Why does the basic structure doctrine make the statutory classification of voting untenable?

    1. Democracy as basic structure: Kesavananda Bharati vs State of Kerala (1973) held that democracy forms part of the Constitution’s basic structure.
    2. Free elections as essential feature: Indira Nehru Gandhi vs Raj Narain (1975) held that free and fair elections are an essential feature of democracy.
    3. Source of legitimacy: Elections derive legitimacy from citizen participation through the ballot. The vote is the instrument through which popular sovereignty is exercised.
    4. Constitutional source of entitlement: Article 326 mandates elections on the basis of universal adult suffrage. Every citizen above 18 is constitutionally entitled to be registered as an elector, subject only to narrowly defined disqualifications.
    5. Statute merely operationalises: The Representation of the People Acts operationalise the command in Article 326. They do not create the underlying entitlement.
    6. Exclusion as constitutional harm: Exclusion from the electoral roll strikes at a constitutional guarantee. This holds except where exclusion follows constitutionally permissible limitations.

    Conclusion

    The Supreme Court has extended constitutional protection to the right to know, the freedom to choose, and the right to reject candidates, while continuing to classify the act of voting itself as merely statutory. This position is inconsistent with the Court’s own recognition that democracy and free and fair elections form part of the basic structure. The Court must revisit the Ponnuswami-Jyoti Basu-Kuldip Nayar line of doctrine. The citizen’s entitlement to be a registered elector flows from Article 326 of the Constitution, leaving only the mechanics of voting to statutory regulation.

  • Will El Niño Weaken India’s Economy

    Why in the News?

    India’s monsoon has opened with a 40% rainfall deficit in June, and the India Meteorological Department has forecast a second consecutive below-normal month in July. The forecast has revived concern that a potential “super” El Niño could damage agricultural output, rural income, and food prices. India enters this season on the back of record 2024-25 foodgrain output, which is what a poor monsoon now puts at risk.

    How does a weak monsoon transmit into the broader economy beyond agriculture?

    1. Three transmission channels: A weak monsoon damages the economy through lower agricultural output, reduced rural income, and rising food prices.
    2. Cropping pattern shift: Farmers are shifting toward pulses and away from maize and vegetables. Pulses need less water and cost less to cultivate.
    3. Irrigation-linked decision-making: Planting decisions also depend on irrigation access, MSP levels, procurement support, and market conditions.
    4. Rural non-farm contraction: Non-traded rural services such as construction contract when agricultural income falls.
    5. Early economic signals: Two-wheeler and tractor sales weaken first. Real estate demand in smaller towns and cities follows.
    6. Export exposure: Agriculture exports grew at a CAGR of 8.2% between fiscals 2020 and 2025, contributing 12% of India’s core exports. A weak kharif season threatens this growth.

    Why does a weak monsoon strain macro-fiscal and external balances even before the shortfall materialises?

    1. Fertiliser subsidy commitment: The Union Cabinet approved a ₹41,533 crore Nutrient-Based Subsidy (NBS: a fixed per-nutrient, rather than per-product, fertiliser subsidy) for phosphatic and potassic fertilisers for the kharif season, covering 28 grades.
    2. Import and buffer-stock risk: A shortfall in kharif output will force the government to release buffer stocks and import commodities. This widens the Current Account Deficit (CAD: the gap between a country’s foreign exchange outflows and inflows on the current account) and pressures the rupee.
    3. Compounding supply shock: Pest pressure and fertiliser input constraints linked to the Iran conflict are adding to cost pressure ahead of the monsoon outcome.
    4. Growth cost estimate: A combined El Niño-plus-drought scenario may shave 20 to 65 basis points off GDP growth, according to Kotak Mutual Fund.
    5. RBI’s growth-inflation warning: The Reserve Bank of India’s June bulletin flagged that an adverse south-west monsoon could weigh on the domestic growth-inflation outlook.

    Why did the 2009 and 2015 El Niño years produce such different economic outcomes despite similar monsoon failure?

    1. El Niño as an imperfect predictor: Six of the eleven below-normal or deficient monsoon years since 2000 were classified as El Niño years by the IMD. Five of these six saw deficient rainfall.
    2. 2009-10 outcome: Two consecutive years of rainfall stress, combined with all-India irrigation cover below 45%, contracted crop GVA (Gross Value Added: a sector’s contribution to national output, net of input costs) by 2.5% and 3.2% in fiscals 2009 and 2010. Inflation entered double digits.
    3. 2014-15 output impact: El Niño intensified from weak to strong across these two years. Crop GVA contracted again in both years.
    4. 2014-15 price impact: Food inflation stayed muted in 2015. This differed sharply from the double-digit inflation of 2009-10.
    5. Explanation for the divergence: Proactive food management, restrained MSP hikes, and a global commodity price slump kept 2015 inflation low.
    6. What the comparison establishes: Policy response, not rainfall severity alone, determines whether an El Niño year turns into an inflation crisis.

    How exposed is India’s irrigation and storage system to a second successive weak monsoon?

    1. Vulnerable districts: 315 districts have been flagged as vulnerable to a poor monsoon. Of these, 111 districts across 12 States are of primary concern for poor irrigation facilities.
    2. Reservoir storage shortfall: Storage across the 166 reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission stood at 47.725 BCM (Billion Cubic Metres) on July 2. This is below both the year-ago level of 78.077 BCM and the normal level of 48.402 BCM for this time of year.
    3. Current buffer, limited margin: The present storage position can meet requirements. A second consecutive weak monsoon would strain it.
    4. Structural irrigation gap: All-India average irrigation cover remains below 45%, the same constraint that contributed to the 2009-10 GVA contraction.

    Should India replace crop insurance with ex-ante risk reduction as its primary drought response?

    1. Limits of crop insurance: Crop insurance compensates farmers after a monsoon failure. It does not reduce their underlying exposure to rainfall variability.
    2. Ex-ante alternative: Ex-ante risk reduction requires sustained public investment in irrigation infrastructure rather than compensation after the event.
    3. Seed access gap: Drought-resistant, high-yielding seed varieties are necessary. Farmers who need them most lack access to them.
    4. Investment shortfall: Public investment in irrigation and seed access has been inadequate. This explains why agricultural disaster preparedness remains poor.

    Conclusion

    A weak monsoon does not automatically translate into an economic crisis. The 2009 and 2015 El Niño years show that policy response, not rainfall alone, determines the scale of the damage. India’s current toolkit remains weighted toward reactive measures, crop insurance, buffer stock release, price management, rather than ex-ante investment in irrigation and drought-resistant seed. Until public investment shifts from compensating farmers after a bad monsoon to reducing their exposure to it, each El Niño year will continue to test the same vulnerabilities: rainfed districts, thin irrigation cover, and reservoirs running below normal.

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2023] Discuss the consequences of climate change on the food security in tropical countries.

    Linkage: The PYQ assesses the relationship between climate variability, agriculture and food security. El Niño-induced rainfall deficits directly threaten crop production, food security, rural livelihoods and agricultural sustainability, making this PYQ conceptually relevant.

  • Ethanol Blending in Fuel: Why the Road Ahead Is Bumpy

    Why in the News?

    India completed its transition to 20% ethanol blending in petrol (E20) five years ahead of the original 2030 target, and the government is now preparing to push blending levels further, toward E25 and E85. The rapid rollout has exposed a gap between the state’s energy-security and farm-sector goals and the mileage loss, damage risk, and lack of fuel choice absorbed by vehicle owners.

    Why is India accelerating ethanol blending well ahead of its own timeline?

    1. Target compression: The shift from E10 to E20 was originally planned over eight years to 2030. It was completed in three years.
    2. Energy security motive: The main reason for pushing blends beyond E20 is to lower India’s dependence on fuel imports and to build domestic ethanol production capacity.
    3. Agricultural lobby pressure: Sugarcane growers, concentrated in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, are sitting on significant surplus capacity. This lobby is pushing hard for higher mandated blending to absorb that surplus.
    4. Muted resistance from oil companies: Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum face operational challenges from rising blend levels. Both companies are mostly state-owned. They are unlikely to protest the mandate.

    What technical costs does higher ethanol blending impose on vehicles designed for lower blends?

    1. Fuel economy loss: Ethanol has a lower calorific value than petrol. Calorific value is the energy released per unit of fuel burned. A litre of ethanol carries substantially less energy than a litre of petrol. This produces roughly 30% lower mileage.
    2. Corrosion risk: E20 fuel can damage fuel-system parts in internal combustion engine vehicles, especially older ones. The cause is ethanol’s hygroscopic nature. Hygroscopy is the property of a substance to absorb and retain water molecules from its surroundings.
    3. Absence of consumer choice: Vehicle owners in India cannot currently select a different fuel blend at the pump. The higher blend is mandatory for all buyers regardless of their vehicle’s compatibility.
    4. Cold-start difficulty: Ethanol burns at a higher temperature than petrol. This makes higher-blend vehicles harder to start on winter mornings.
    5. Non-linear performance decline: A 10% ethanol blend made little difference to a car’s performance. Any blend above E10 is said to impact operations, and the decline does not scale evenly as the blend percentage rises.

    What does the government’s own technical assessment show, and what gap remains?

    1. Study mandate: The government commissioned the Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI) to study E20’s impact on fuel-system materials, through laboratory immersion testing of eight metals, six elastomers, and four plastics.
    2. Corrosion finding: E20’s impact on the metals tested was found insignificant, based on corrosion rates, compared with the E10 baseline.
    3. Elastomer finding: Polychloroprene and fluoroelastomer performed similar to or better than E10 across most tested properties, including tensile strength and volume change.
    4. Evidence gap: No conclusive studies exist on the long-term impact of blended fuel on vehicles not compliant with the higher blend.
    5. Flagged risk despite reassurance: ARAI flagged that E20 could still affect engine life, rubber parts, valves, and piston heads, even where the headline corrosion findings were favourable.

    What additional adjustments will the shift to E25 and E85 require?

    1. Engineering revalidation: The E25 transition requires fresh work on engine calibration, fuel-system durability, corrosion resistance, and material compatibility.
    2. Retesting of vehicles on road: Car makers must run new tests to assess how the higher ethanol blend affects vehicles already in use.
    3. Recertification for new vehicles: Manufacturers must recalibrate engines and redo certification and homologation for emissions. Homologation is the official certification process confirming a vehicle meets prescribed standards, since current vehicles are homologated only for E20.
    4. Flex-fuel economics: A parallel plan proposes E85 for flex-fuel vehicles. E85 will cost roughly Rs 20 per litre less than E20, even though it delivers a fuel-efficiency loss of over 25% compared with E20.
    5. Government reassurance on pace: Government sources indicate that blends beyond E20 will not be pushed through in a hurry, and that adequate lead time will be given to vehicles and oil companies to adapt.

    Does the ethanol programme resolve the cost of India’s energy transition, or simply relocate it onto the consumer?

    1. Consumer as sole cost-bearer in E10-to-E20 shift: The brunt of the mileage drop from the E10 to E20 transition was borne entirely by the motorist, without compensation from the state or industry.
    2. Rising vehicle costs: Vehicle prices are likely to rise as automakers re-engineer for higher blends. This added cost will also be passed on to the consumer.
    3. Uncompensated damage risk for old vehicles: For older vehicles, the question of damage from the higher ethanol mix is left entirely to the consumer, according to a representative of an auto manufacturing association.
    4. No structural check on the mandate: Oil marketing companies are mostly state-owned and unlikely to resist blend increases even where they face operational challenges. This removes one of the usual sources of pushback against a rapid mandate.
    5. Asymmetric distribution of gains and costs: Energy security gains and farm-sector gains accrue to the state and the agricultural lobby. Mileage loss and damage risk accrue to individual vehicle owners.

    Conclusion

    India met its ethanol blending target years ahead of schedule to cut fuel-import dependence and to absorb sugarcane surplus for the farm lobby. The transition’s costs — lower mileage, corrosion-related wear, and a mandatory blend with no consumer choice at the pump — fell on vehicle owners without compensation or adequate prior warning. The planned move to E25 and E85 risks repeating this pattern unless the government builds in cost-sharing mechanisms, consumer choice, and sufficient lead time for automakers before mandating higher blends.

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2022] Do you think India will meet 50 percent of its energy needs from renewable energy by 2030? Justify your answer. How will the shift of subsidies from fossil fuels to renewables help achieve the above objective?

    Linkage: The PYQ tests India’s clean energy transition and policy measures for reducing fossil fuel dependence. Ethanol blending is a major component of India’s energy transition strategy aimed at reducing crude oil imports, lowering emissions, and diversifying transport fuels.

  • INS Mahendragiri (Project 17A Stealth Frigate)

    Why in News?

    The Indian Navy will commission INS Mahendragiri (F38), the sixth Project 17A indigenous stealth frigate, at Visakhapatnam on 11 July 2026.

    Note: Project 17A is a ₹45,000-crore Indian Navy initiative to build seven advanced Nilgiri-class stealth frigates.

    Key Highlights

    • Named after the Mahendragiri Hills in the Eastern Ghats.
    • Designed by the Indian Navy’s Warship Design Bureau (WDB).
    • Built by Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (MDL), Mumbai.
    • Features over 75% indigenous content, supporting Aatmanirbhar Bharat.
    • Powered by Combined Diesel or Gas (CODOG) propulsion for high speed and long endurance.

    Features

    • Advanced stealth design with reduced radar signature.
    • Equipped with:
      • Surface-to-Surface Missiles (SSM)
      • Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAM)
      • Electronic Warfare (EW) systems
      • Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) systems
      • Integrated Combat Management System (CMS)
    • High degree of automation and enhanced survivability.

    Operational Roles

    • Anti-air warfare, Anti-surface warfare, Anti-submarine warfare, Maritime security, Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR), Search and Rescue (SAR), and Indo-Pacific presence missions

    Significance

    • Strengthens India’s indigenous warship-building capability.
    • Enhances the Indian Navy’s blue-water combat capability.
    • Boosts the domestic defence ecosystem, including MSMEs.
    • Reinforces India’s role as the Preferred Security Partner in the Indian Ocean Region.

    [2026] Which of the following statements with regard to stealth technology is/are correct ?
    1. Stealth objects have a very small radar cross-section and are coated with Radar Absorbing Material.
    2. Stealth objects can be detected using specific frequencies.
    3. Stealth objects are coated with metamaterials to increase the scattering of electromagnetic radiation.
    Select the answer using the code given below :

    [A] 1 only

    [B] 2 and 3 only

    [C] 1 and 2 only

    [D] 1, 2 and 3

  • India’s Steel Sector Records Growth in Q1 FY 2026

    Why in News?

    India’s steel sector recorded steady growth in Q1 FY 2026-27 with higher production, strong demand, and continued policy support.

    Key Highlights

    • Crude steel production: 42.1 Mt (+3.0% YoY)
    • Finished steel production: 41.0 Mt (+5.9% YoY)
    • Finished steel consumption: 41.6 Mt (+8.3% YoY)
    • Installed steel capacity: 221.9 MTPA (Target: 300 MTPA by 2030 under National Steel Policy 2017)
    • India remained a net importer of finished steel despite export growth.

    Major Developments

    • DGTR launched an anti-dumping probe into hot-rolled steel imports from China, Japan, and Russia.
    • Ministry of Steel promoted AI, automation, predictive maintenance, digital mining, and smart manufacturing.
    • SAIL supplied 5,700 tonnes of special steel for three Indian Navy ships.
    • JSW Group began construction of a 2 MTPA integrated steel plant in Kadapa, Andhra Pradesh.

    Green Steel

    • SAIL Rourkela launched India’s first CO₂ Dashboard for digital carbon monitoring.
    • Plantation drives and decarbonisation initiatives continued under Van Mahotsav 2026.

    [2023]Consider the following heavy industries:
    1. Fertilizer plants
    2. Oil refineries
    3. Steel plants
    Green hydrogen is expected to play a significant role in decarbonizing how many of the above industries?

    [A] Only one

    [B] Only two

    [C] All three

    [D] None

  • Oldest Quasars Ever Discovered by Euclid Telescope

    Why in News?

    The European Space Agency’s (ESA) Euclid Space Telescope has discovered 31 ancient quasars, including the oldest ever observed, dating back to when the Universe was about 670 million years old.

    Key Highlights

    • Quasars are the extremely bright cores of distant galaxies powered by supermassive black holes.
    • The newly discovered quasars belong to the Epoch of Reionisation, when the first stars and galaxies formed.
    • Euclid has doubled the number of known ancient quasars within two years.
    • The findings deepen the mystery of how supermassive black holes grew to billions of solar masses so soon after the Big Bang.
    • The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will further study these quasars to understand the early Universe.

    Significance

    • Helps trace the reionisation of the Universe.
    • Improves understanding of the formation of early galaxies and black holes.
    • Challenges existing models of cosmic evolution.

    UPSC Prelims Value Addition

    • Quasar: The highly luminous active galactic nucleus (AGN) of a distant galaxy, powered by matter falling into a supermassive black hole.
    • Epoch of Reionisation: The period (about 400 million to 1 billion years after the Big Bang) when the first stars and galaxies ionised neutral hydrogen, ending the Cosmic Dark Ages.

    [2017] The terms ‘Event Horizon’, ‘Singularity’, ‘String Theory’ and ‘Standard Model’ are sometimes seen in the news in the context of:

    (a) Observation and understanding of the Universe

    (b) Study of the solar and the lunar eclipses

    (c) Placing satellites in the orbit of the Earth

    (d) Origin and evolution of living organisms on the Earth

  • Vikram-1 to Carry Six Payloads in Maiden Orbital Mission

    Why in News?

    Skyroot Aerospace announced that its Vikram-1, India’s first privately developed orbital-class launch vehicle, will carry six payloads during its maiden mission, Mission Aagaman, expected between July 12 and August 4, 2026.

    Key Highlights

    • Vikram-1 is India’s first privately built orbital-class rocket.
    • It will carry six payloads, including technology demonstrations and cultural artefacts.
    • Technology payloads include:
      • SOLARAS nano-satellite (Grahaa Space)
      • SCOPE (Skyroot Aerospace)
      • Embrace robotic arm (Cosmoserve Space) for space debris capture technology
      • One international payload from Dcubed GmbH (Germany).
    • Cultural payloads:
      • Cosmic Bloom: Diamond jewellery mounted on an aluminium plate.
      • Microart: An 18K gold rocket featuring micro-sculptures of Sir C.V. Raman, Dr. Vikram Sarabhai, and Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam.

    Significance

    • Marks a major milestone for India’s private space sector.
    • Demonstrates indigenous launch capability for commercial and technology missions.
    • Supports innovation in satellite technologies and space debris removal.

    Orbital-class Launch Vehicle

    • A rocket capable of placing satellites into Earth’s orbit, unlike sub-orbital rockets that follow a ballistic trajectory without completing an orbit.

    [2026] Consider the following statements with regard to involvement of private entities in India’s space programme :
    1. The Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe) is an autonomous agency formed to facilitate participation of private entities.
    2. Agnikul Cosmos launched the world’s first flight using 3D-printed rocket engine.
    3. Skyroot Aerospace has developed liquid fuel for GSLV.
    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

    [A] 1 only

    [B] 2 and 3 only

    [C] 1 and 2 only

    [D] 1, 2 and 3

  • El Niño to Dent India’s Wind & Hydropower Output

    Why in the News?

    The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) projects an 18 TWh clean-power shortfall for India by June 2027, driven by El Niño-linked weakness in wind and hydropower output and rising cooling demand. The finding exposes a gap between the record renewable capacity India has installed and the storage needed to actually deliver that capacity as power, forcing the shortfall to be filled by coal.

    What has changed in India’s exposure to this El Niño cycle?

    1. Monsoon deficit: June rainfall closed with an all-India deficit of about 40%, the fifth-lowest June since 1901, with the cumulative shortfall at 20% below normal by July 6.
    2. IMD forecast: The India Meteorological Department has forecast below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall at 90% of the long-period average, with a 60% chance of a deficient season.
    3. Generation gap: CREA projects a median shortfall of 17.7 TWh and a severe-case shortfall of 24 TWh, against India’s total 2025-26 generation of about 1,846 billion units.
    4. Emissions cost: A coal-led response to the gap would release an estimated 17 million tonnes of additional carbon dioxide.

    Is this a capacity shortfall or a utilisation shortfall?

    1. Record capacity base: Non-fossil installed capacity reached 283.46 GW by March 31, including 150.26 GW of solar and 56.09 GW of wind.
    2. Record additions: India added 44.6 GW of solar and 6 GW of wind capacity in 2025-26 alone.
    3. Curtailment: Grid operators curtailed about 2.1 TWh of solar and wind generation last year to keep coal plants running.
    4. Storage gap: CREA estimates roughly 10 GWh of battery storage could have averted this curtailment.

    Why does the response default to coal rather than storage?

    1. Coal’s continuing weight: Coal remains about 42% of installed capacity even as coal generation fell 3.69% over the year.
    2. New coal pipeline: India is adding around 130 GW of new coal capacity to buffer peak demand, such as the 270.82 GW peak recorded on May 21.
    3. Policy diagnosis: CREA director Nandikesh Sivalingam states India must move faster on batteries and grid upgrades to meet future demand surges.
    4. Dispatch logic: Coal capacity can be dispatched on demand without storage investment, making it the default buffer despite its emissions cost.

    Conclusion

    India’s projected clean-power shortfall is a storage and grid-integration deficit, not a generation deficit. The 130 GW of new coal capacity being planned addresses the symptom of demand variability, not the missing battery and transmission investment needed to convert installed renewable capacity into reliable output. Without storage scaling alongside capacity addition, each future El Niño cycle will repeat the same coal fallback and its emissions cost.

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