The recently concluded assembly elections have some larger implications that we need to take note of. The consequences are not confined to the five states where the electoral battle was fought.
Undermining of non-electoral dimensions of democracy
In much of the world, the electoral aspects of democracy are now being used to undermine the non-electoral dimensions of democracy.
Today, such contradictions exist in Turkey, Poland, Hungary, Russia, to name just a few countries.
A freely conducted vote can thus be used to cripple the other freedoms that modern democracies also value.
How electoral democracy can be a vehicle of assault on constitutional democracy
The triumph of such politics can now be used in three ways — in executive decrees, in legislative chambers to formulate laws, and on the street via vigilante forces.
Though minority rights are enshrined in India’s Constitution, election victories can now be used to create laws, or government policies that begin to attack precisely those rights.
Role of judiciary: The courts are the final custodian of constitutional proprieties in a democracy and can frustrate a legislative or executive attack on the Constitution.
But that depends on whether the judiciary is willing to play its constitutionally assigned role.
Judicial interpretation can go either way – in favour of the government or against it.
Contradictory aspects of democracy from other parts of the world
These contradictory aspects of democracy do have older roots.
We can go all the way back to some tendencies that emerged in the democracy of America’s southern states in the 1880s, which lasted till the 1960s.
America’s Blacks lost their equality as well as franchise, and the courts did not invalidate a majoritarian attack on their rights.
The history of 1930s Germany is also viewed as an example of how democracy undermined democracy.
As early as the 1950s, Sri Lanka imposed a “Sinhala only” policy on the Tamil minority of the country.
In the 1980s, a civil war was born as a consequence.
In Malaysia, following roughly similar policies, the Malay majority sidelined the Chinese minority.
Internal tensions and aggravations rose but, unlike Sri Lanka, a civil war did not.
The minorities pursued their interests by entering into coalitions with political parties within the larger parameters of the polity.
Consider the question “How the electoral aspect of the democracy can affect the non-electoral aspect of the democracy. What are the implications of such phenomenon for the democracy?”
Conclusion
This process can be called the battle between electoral democracy and constitutional democracy. Processes internal to the democratic system can severely weaken democracy itself, even causing its collapse.
Tobacco is a silent killer in our midst that kills an estimated 1.35 million Indians every year.
Status of Tobacco Consumption in India
According to the Global Youth Tobacco Survey, India has the second-largest number (268 million) of tobacco users in the world and of these 13 lakh die every year from tobacco-related diseases.
Ten lakh deaths are due to smoking, with over 2,00,000 due to second-hand smoke exposure, and over 35,000 are due to smokeless tobacco use.
About 27 crore people above the age of 15 years and 8.5% of school-going children in the age group 13-15 years use tobacco in some form in India.
India bears an annual economic burden of over ₹1,77,340 crore on account of tobacco use.
Tobacco use is known to be a major risk factor for several non-communicable diseases such as cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and chronic lung diseases.
Nearly 27% of all cancers in India are due to tobacco usage.
Socio-Economic Burden of ‘Tobacco’
In India, over 1.3 million deaths are attributable to tobacco use every year amounting to 3500 deaths per day, imposing a lot of avoidable socio-economic burden.
In addition to the death and diseases it causes, tobacco also impacts the economic development of the country.
Smokers face a 40-50% higher risk of developing severe disease deaths from Covid-19.
As per the WHO study titled “Economic Costs of Diseases and Deaths Attributable to Tobacco Use in India”, it has been estimated that the economic burden of diseases and deaths attributable to use of tobacco in India was as high asapprox 1% of GDP.
Measures towards tobacco control in India
India adopted the tobacco control provisions under WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC).
Cigarettes and Other Tobacco Products Act (COTPA), 2003:
It replaced the Cigarettes Act of 1975 (largely limited to statutory warnings- ‘Cigarette Smoking is Injurious to Health’ to be displayed on cigarette packs and advertisements. It did not include non-cigarettes).
The 2003 Act also included cigars, bidis, cheroots, pipe tobacco, hookah, chewing tobacco, pan masala, and gutka.
Promulgation of the Prohibition of Electronic Cigarettes Ordinance, 2019: Which prohibits Production, Manufacture, Import, Export, Transport, Sale, Distribution, Storage and Advertisement of e-Cigarettes.
National Tobacco Quitline Services (NTQLS): Tobacco Quitline Services have the potential to reach a large number of tobacco users with the sole objective to provide telephone-based information, advice, support, and referrals for tobacco cessation.
mCessation Programme: It is an initiative using mobile technology for tobacco cessation.
India launched mCessation using text messages in 2016 as part of the government’s Digital India initiative.
How do the price and taxation of tobacco matter?
Although not a communicable disease like SARS-CoV-2, the tobacco epidemic — as the World Health Organisation characterizes it — has some definitive solutions that can reduce the death toll.
Research from many countries around the world including India shows that a price increase induces people to quit or reduce tobacco use as well as discourages non-users from getting into the habit of tobacco use.
There is overwhelming consensus within the research community that taxation is one of the most cost-effective measures to reduce the demand for tobacco products.
There has been no significant tax increase on any tobacco product for four years in a row.
This is quite unlike the pre-GST years where the Union government and many State governments used to effect regular tax increases on tobacco products.
As peer-reviewed studies show, the lack of tax increase over these years has made all tobacco products increasingly more affordable.
The absence of a tax increase on tobacco has the potential to reverse the reduction in tobacco use prevalence that India saw during the last decade and now push more people into harm’s way.
It would also mean foregone tax revenues for the Government.
High and increasing tax rates provide a profitable opportunity for tax evasion and encourage growth in illegal trade.
What is the Taxation Scenario of Tobacco in India?
Ever since the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) legislation in 2017, there has been no significant tax increase on any tobacco product.
There was only a minor increase in the National Calamity Contingent Duty (NCCD) during the Union Budget 2020-21 which only had the effect of increasing cigarette prices by roughly 5%.
The Union Budget 2022-23 was an excellent but lost opportunity for the Government of India to buck this trend and significantly increase either excise duties or NCCDs.
No significant tax increase on any tobacco product for four years in a row has made all tobacco products increasingly more affordable.
More affordable tobacco products could attract new users especially among the youth.
It would also mean foregone tax revenues for the Government especially at a time when the Government of India is looking forward to increasing the share of public spending on health
The decline in Tobacco Consumption
The prevalence of tobacco use has decreased by six percentage points from 34.6% in 2009-10 to 28.6% in 2016-17.
Under the National Health Policy 2017, India has set an ambitious target of reducing tobacco use by 30% by 2025.
WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control
Governments adopt and implement the tobacco control provisions of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC).
It is the first international treaty negotiated under the auspices of the WHO.
It was adopted by the World Health Assembly (apex decision making body of WHO) on 21st May 2003 and entered into force on 27th February 2005.
It was developed in response to the globalization of the tobacco epidemic and is an evidence-based treaty that reaffirms the right of all people to the highest standard of health.
The FCTC’s measures to combat tobacco use include:
Price and tax measures.
Large, graphic warnings on tobacco packages.
100% smoke-free public spaces.
A ban on tobacco marketing.
Support for smokers who want to quit.
Prevention of tobacco industry interference.
Way Forward
(1) Opportunities in Budget
The government should take a considerate view of public health and significantly increase excise taxes — either basic excise duty orNational Calamity Contingent Duty (NCCD) — on all tobacco products.
Fixing an excise tax of at least ₹1 per stick of bidis while aiming for a significant increase in the excise tax of cigarettes and smokeless tobacco products.
Taxation should achieve a significant reduction in the affordability of tobacco products to reduce tobacco use prevalence and facilitate India’s march towards sustainable development goals.
(2) Role of GST Council
There is absolutely no public health rationale why a product as harmful as a bidi does not have a cess levied on it under the GST or why the specific cess applied on cigarettes has remained unchanged for four years in the face of increasing inflation.
GST Council meetings must strive to keep public health ahead of the interests of the tobacco industry and significantly increase either the GST rates or the GST compensation cess rates applied on all tobacco products.
The aim should be to arrest the increasing affordability of tobacco products in India and also rationalise tobacco taxation under the GST.
(3) Tobacco Control Laws
It is scientifically established that if a person is kept away from tobacco till the age of 21 and above, there is a very high probability that he/she will remain tobacco-free for the rest of their life.
The experts have urged the government to increase the legal age of sale of tobacco products from 18 to 21 by amending the Cigarettes and Other Tobacco Products Act (COTPA), 2003.
Also, imposing a comprehensive ban on tobacco advertising and banning sale of single sticks of cigarettes/bidis would go a long way in preventing children and youth from initiating tobacco use.
At least 14 countries (Ethiopia, Guam, Honduras, Japan, Kuwait, Mongolia, Palau, Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Uganda, and the U.S.) have now increased the minimum age to 21 for buying tobacco products.
At least 86 countries have banned the sale of single stick cigarettes to control their easy accessibility and affordability to youth.
(4) Educating Children
The role of teachers is most crucial in creating awareness among children and their parents about harm due to tobacco use and for shaping the attitude of children in this regard.
The more and the sooner awareness is created among children about harms due to tobacco use, the better will be the outcomes in terms of reduction in the prevalence of tobacco use among children and consequently among adults.
Harmful effects of tobacco use should be incorporated in school curricula at various levels starting right from the primary school level.
Conclusion
The aim should be to arrest the increasing affordability of tobacco products in India and also rationalize tobacco taxation under the GST.
Three laborers in Mumbai, allegedly hired for manual scavenging, died after inhaling toxic fumes in a septic tank.
What is Manual Scavenging?
Manual scavenging is the practice of removing human excreta by hand from sewers or septic tanks.
India banned the practice under the Prohibition of Employment as Manual Scavengers and their Rehabilitation Act, 2013 (PEMSR).
The Act bans the use of any individual for manually cleaning, carrying, disposing of or otherwise handling in any manner, human excreta till its disposal.
In 2013, the definition of manual scavengers was also broadened to include people employed to clean septic tanks, ditches, or railway tracks.
The Act recognizes manual scavenging as a “dehumanizing practice,” and cites a need to “correct the historical injustice and indignity suffered by the manual scavengers.”
Why is it still prevalent in India?
Low awareness: Manual scavenging is mostly done by the marginalized section of the society and they are generally not aware about their rights.
Enforcement issues: The lack of enforcement of the Act and exploitation of unskilled labourers are the reasons why the practice is still prevalent in India.
High cost of automated: The Mumbai civic body charges anywhere between Rs 20,000 and Rs 30,000 to clean septic tanks.
Cheaper availability: The unskilled labourers, meanwhile, are much cheaper to hire and contractors illegally employ them at a daily wage of Rs 300-500.
Caste dynamics: Caste hierarchy still exists and it reinforces the caste’s relation with occupation. Almost all the manual scavengers belong to lower castes.
Various policy initiatives
Prohibition of Employment as Manual Scavengers and their Rehabilitation (Amendment) Bill, 2020: It proposes to completely mechanise sewer cleaning, introduce ways for ‘on-site’ protection and provide compensation to manual scavengers in case of sewer deaths.
Prohibition of Employment as Manual Scavengers and their Rehabilitation Act, 2013: Superseding the 1993 Act, the 2013 Act goes beyond prohibitions on dry latrines, and outlaws all manual excrement cleaning of insanitary latrines, open drains, or pits.
Rashtriya Garima Abhiyan: It started national wide march “Maila Mukti Yatra” for total eradication of manual scavenging from 30th November 2012 from Bhopal.
Prevention of Atrocities Act: In 1989, the Prevention of Atrocities Act became an integrated guard for sanitation workers since majority of the manual scavengers belonged to the Scheduled Caste.
Compensation: As per the Prohibition of Employment of Manual Scavengers and their Rehabilitation (PEMSR) Act, 2013 and the Supreme Court’s decision in the Safai Karamchari Andolan vs Union of India case, a compensation of Rs 10 lakh is awarded to the victims family.
Way forward
Regular surveys and social audits must be conducted against the involvement of manual scavengers by public and local authorities.
There must be proper identification and capacity building of manual scavengers for alternate sources of livelihood.
Creating awareness about the legal protection of manual scavengers is necessary.
India has emphasized on following the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) at the UNSC meeting on Ukraine.
Why in news?
The meeting came after a request from Russia, who claimed that the US is involved in bioweapon manufacture in war-torn Ukraine.
However, Washington has strongly dismissed this claim.
What is BTWC?
The Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) was the first multilateral treaty categorically banning a class of weapon.
It is a treaty that came into force in 1975 and prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpiling and use of biological weapons.
A total of 183 countries are party to the treaty that outlaws bioweapons, including US, Russia and Ukraine.
Obligations of the treaty
The treaty prohibits the development, stockpile, production, or transfer of biological agents and toxins of “types and quantities” that have no justification for protective or peaceful use.
Furthermore, the treaty bans the development of weapons, equipment, or delivery systems to disseminate such agents or toxins.
Should a state possess any agent, toxin, or delivery system for them, they have nine months from entry into force of the treaty to destroy their stockpiles, or divert them for peaceful use.
The convention stipulates that states shall cooperate bilaterally or multilaterally to solve compliance issues.
States may also submit complaints to the UNSCR should they believe another state is violating the treaty.
Issues with the treaty
There is no implementation body of the BTWC, allowing for blatant violations as seen in the past.
There is only a review conference that too every five years to review the convention’s implementation, and establish confidence-building measures.
Signatories to the BTWC
The Convention currently has 183 states-parties, including Palestine, and four signatories (Egypt, Haiti, Somalia, and Syria).
Ten states have neither signed nor ratified the BWC: Chad, Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Israel, Kiribati, Micronesia, Namibia, South Sudan, and Tuvalu.
India has acknowledged a malfunction led to accidental firing of a missile, which Pakistan says landed in its territory.
Conducting Missile Tests: NOTAM and NAVAREA Warnings
Under the pre-notification of flight testing of ballistic missiles agreement signed in 2005, a country must provide the other an advance notification on flight test it intends to take for any land or sea launched, surface-to-surface ballistic missile.
Before the test, the country must issue Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) or Navigational Warning (NAVAREA) to alert aviation pilots and seafarers, respectively.
Also, the testing country must ensure that the launch site is not within 40 km, and the planned impact area is not within 75 km of either the International Boundary (IB) or the Line of Control (LoC).
The planned trajectory should not cross the IB or the LoC and must maintain a horizontal distance of at least 40 km from the border.
Pre-notifications to the neighbours
The testing country must notify the other nation “no less than three days in advance of the commencement of a five day launch window within which it intends to undertake flight tests.
The pre-notification has to be conveyed through the respective Foreign Offices and the High Commissions, as per the format annexed to this Agreement.
What is the recent case of misfire?
Neither country has spelt this out; Pakistan has only called it a “supersonic” missile.
Some experts have speculated that it was a test of one of India’s top missiles, BrahMos, jointly developed with Russia.
Their assessment is based on information that it travelled 200 km, manoeuvred mid-air and travelled at 2.5 times to 3 times the speed of sound at an altitude of 40,000 feet.
Note: BrahMos has a top speed of Mach 3, a range of around 290 km, and a cruising altitude of 15 km (around 50,000 feet). It can be fired from anywhere, is nuclear-capable, and can carry warheads of 200-300 kg.
This article takes the stock of the Indian economy using the EFGHIJ framework.
Export
The $400-billion target of goods exports in FY22 appears achievable:
This is a structural break from ~$300-330 billion per year over the last decade.
Note that in calendar year 2021, India exported almost $400 billion worth of goods.
This export growth comes at a time when global shipping and freight markets have been in a tizzy over the last few months as Covid-related supply chain disruptions across commodities and final products reverberated across the globe.
Fiscal growth
India has significant fiscal headroom in FY23 with a 6.4% fiscal deficit pencilled in.
The revenue buoyancy, assumed at less than 1, is conservative as is the overall assumption on nominal growth at 11%.
In as volatile a world as this, the conservatism in forecasting should come to India’s advantage.
India saw healthy direct and indirect tax receipts in FY22: the GST collections have consistently remained above the `1 trillion-a-month mark for many months now.
Two aspects need a close watch:
(a) as the prices of various commodities rise, there can be calls for softening the blow on the final consumer via tax cuts or direct support, and
(b) the disinvestment programme of the government which could face a market where investor appetite is uncertain.
Growth challenges and opportunities for India
India’s GDP growth in FY23 is projected to be 7.6-8.5%, making it one of the fastest-growing economies.
With the newly changed circumstances, it is possible that this tight range and the absolute number may require revision.
It is, however, too early to say in which direction and by what amounts.
Opportunities for India: Global dislocations of supply chain or the creation of new supply sources could create divergent challenges and opportunities for India.
The post Covid rebound in high frequency indicators (air and rail passengers, toll collections, UPI payments, etc.) suggests that the internal consumption economy is currently back on track.
It is important to note that India continues to be the fastest-growing nation of its size in the world.
Health
India has now completed almost 1.8 billion doses.
The Omicron wave, thankfully both due to the inherent nature of the virus and the large vaccination drive, did not cause significant economic upheaval.
It may be time to think of Covid as endemic and plan accordingly.
Inflation
The inflation in 2021 was based on a sudden bout of fiscal-support-driven spending meeting with tight supply chain bottlenecks.
It was expected that as spending normalises and supply chains open, prices will stabilise.
However, the sharp uptick in the prices of crude, coal, commodities, and chips has created a more sustained scare for inflation.
Many measures may be taken across the world to curb the impact for the common man: from opening of oil reserves, to cutting of taxes, to direct support, etc—all of which could impact the fiscal.
Capital
Denoted by K by economists, expect to see a lot of ebb-and-flow here as investors react to evolving, volatile trends.
Higher public investment in the last two years has supported economic recovery: India has planned for a record `10 lakh crore plus public capex.
Net FDI has been strong at $25.3 billion up to December in FY2022.
While FPIs have withdrawn $9.5 billion in FY22, DIIs and retail investors have supported the markets.
Conclusion
With two waves of COVID-19 largely behind us, many macroeconomic factors have changed dramatically, especially in the last fortnight.
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