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  • Looking at 2025, The Economy: Some positives, some concerns

    Why in the News?

    The Finance Minister describes the slowdown in Q2 growth as a “temporary blip,” while the RBI has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2024-25 downward, from 7.2% to 6.6%.

    Why RBI has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2024-2025 downward, from 7.2% to 6.6%?

    • Economic Slowdown: The RBI’s downgrade reflects concerns over a cyclical downturn, with GDP growth in Q2 FY25 at 5.4%, indicating fundamental challenges hindering growth prospects.
      • Fundamental challenges: Declining corporate investments, sliding consumption growth, and “softness” in urban demand have weakened the investment climate, prompting a downward revision in growth expectations.
    • Inflationary Pressures: Persistent inflation near double digits complicates monetary policy, forcing the RBI to consider prolonged high interest rates, which could further suppress growth and investments.

    What are the expected growth rates for major economies in 2025?

    • India: Projected to achieve a growth rate of 6.5% over the next five years, maintaining its status as the fastest-growing major economy globally, despite a recent dip in economic output in 2024.
    • China: Growth is expected to stabilize around 4-5%, lower than its historical rates due to structural challenges like demographic shifts and a cooling property sector.
    • United States: Growth is projected at 1.5-2%, as the Federal Reserve maintains a tight monetary policy to counter inflation.
    • Eurozone: Growth is forecasted at around 1%, reflecting a sluggish recovery from the energy crisis and geopolitical uncertainties.
    • Japan: Expected growth rate of 1-1.5%, supported by fiscal stimulus but constrained by aging demographics.
    • Emerging Markets (excluding China and India): Growth is expected to range from 3-4%, depending on commodity prices and fiscal discipline.

    How will inflation and monetary policy evolve?

    • Inflation Persistence: Inflation in India remains at the upper end of the permissible range, with food prices nearing double digits. This persistent inflation strengthens the argument for maintaining high interest rates, complicating the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy decisions as they balance growth with inflation control.
    • Monetary Policy Adjustments: The RBI may need to reconsider its previous projections of GDP growth, which could lead to adjustments in interest rates. If inflation continues to be a concern, the RBI might maintain or even increase rates longer than necessary which impacts investment and economic activity.
    • Investment and Economic Recovery: A slowdown in corporate investments and a decline in household financial savings have been observed, which could hinder economic recovery.
      • The RBI’s ability to stimulate growth through monetary policy will depend on addressing these investment challenges and ensuring that fiscal measures effectively support economic activity without exacerbating inflation.

    What are the key risks and uncertainties facing the global economy?

    • Investment Slowdown: A significant challenge is the sluggish performance of corporate investments, exacerbated by high food inflation and muted urban demand. This trend poses risks for growth and job creation.
    • Savings-Investment Gap: A decline in household financial savings down to 5.3% of GDP from 7.3% coupled with rising household debt (5.8% of GDP) presents a risk to economic stability1.
    • Credit Growth Decline: Falling credit growth, particularly in household borrowing for home purchases and limited industrial appetite for new projects, indicates a tightening economic environment.
    • Fiscal Challenges: Increased state expenditures on subsidies may strain fiscal resources, potentially affecting overall economic sustainability and growth prospects.

    What should be done by the government? (Way forward)

    • Balanced Fiscal and Monetary Coordination: Governments should prioritize targeted fiscal measures to stimulate investment and demand while ensuring fiscal discipline, complemented by a flexible monetary policy that carefully balances inflation control with growth stimulation.
    • Boosting Household Savings and Investments: Implement policies to encourage higher household financial savings and incentivize corporate investments through tax reforms, reduced regulatory barriers, and support for credit access in productive sectors.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q The nature of economic growth in India in recent times is often described as jobless growth. Do you agree with this view? Give arguments in favour of your answer. (UPSC IAS/2015)

  • Heatwaves

    Heatwaves

    The IPCC defines heatwave as “a period of abnormally hot weather, often defined with reference to a relative temperature threshold, lasting from two days to months.”

    • Heatwaves Duration Index & World Meteorological Organization— A heat wave occurs when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °C (9 °F).
    • Heatwaves typically occur between March and June, more frequently over the Indo-Gangetic plains, on average, 5-6 heat wave events occur every year over the northern parts of the country.
    • Heat cramps: Edelman (Swelling) and syncope (Fainting) are generally accompanied by fever below 39 degrees Celsius.
    • Heat Exhaustion: Fatigue, weakness, dizziness, headache, nausea, vomiting, muscle cramps, and sweating.
    • Heat stroke: Body temperature is at 40°C or more along with delirium, seizures, or coma which is potentially fatal.
    • Heat waves are more frequent over the Indo-Gangec plains of India. On average, 5-6 heat wave events occur every year over the northern parts of the country.

    Nodal Ministry: Indian Meteorological Department (Ministry of Earth Sciences, MOES)

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    Types of HeatWaves:

    1. Moderate Heatwave: A heatwave with temperatures exceeding the normal maximum by 3-5°C. Example: A moderate heatwave in Delhi with temperatures reaching 42°C (108°F) in May.
    2. Severe Heatwave: More intense than moderate heat waves, with temperatures exceeding the normal maximum by over 5°C. Example: A severe heatwave in Rajasthan with temperatures soaring to 50°C (122°F) in June.
    3. Sustained Heatwave: A prolonged period of high temperatures lasting for several days. Example: A sustained heatwave in Odisha lasting for a week with temperatures consistently above 40°C (104°F).
    4. Heatwave with High Humidity: Occurs when high humidity levels make it feel even hotter. Example: A humid heatwave in Mumbai with temperatures in the high 30s°C (around 100°F) and high humidity levels.

    Criteria to declare:

    1. Heatwave: When the maximum temperature of a met-substation reaches at least 40°C (104°F) in the plains or 37 degrees or more in coastal areas, 30°C (86°F) in hilly areas
    2. Severe Heatwave: When the maximum temperature of a met substation reaches at least 45°C (113°F) in the plains or 30°C (86°F) in hilly regions.

    Causes:

    Heatwaves in India can be caused by various factors, including:

    1. High Temperatures: India’s geographical location and topography make it susceptible to intense heat.
    2. Seasonal Weather Patterns: The movement of weather systems, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño, can influence temperature and precipitation patterns, contributing to heat waves.
    3. Lack of Rainfall: Prolonged periods of low rainfall, or droughts, lead to soil moisture depletion and less evaporative cooling.
    4. Urban Heat Island Effect: Urban areas with concrete and asphalt can absorb and retain heat, causing localized temperature increases. Rapid urbanization contributes to this effect.
    5. Global Climate Change: Long-term changes in global climate patterns can result in more frequent and severe heat waves.
    6. Wind Patterns: Changes in wind patterns can influence the movement of air masses, potentially trapping warm air and causing prolonged periods of extreme heat.
    7. Monsoon Delay or Failure: The delay or failure of the monsoon contributes to heat waves.
    8. Deforestation and Land Use Changes: Alterations in land cover, leading to higher temperatures.
    9. Human Activities: Activities like industrial processes, transportation, and agriculture can release heat-trapping gases and pollutants, contributing to local warming.
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    Mitigation:

    1. Early Warning Systems: Implement advanced meteorological forecasting systems to provide early warnings about impending heatwaves.
    2. Cooling Centers: Establish cooling centers in urban areas where vulnerable populations can seek refuge during extreme heat events.
    3. Urban Planning: Design and retrofit urban areas to reduce the urban heat island effect.
    4. Building Design: Promote energy-efficient building designs incorporating natural cooling techniques, such as proper ventilation, insulation, and shading.
    5. Public Awareness: Educate people about the risks of heat waves and the importance of staying hydrated, wearing appropriate clothing, and avoiding outdoor activities during peak heat hours.
    6. Water Supply: Ensure stable and reliable access to clean water as it is crucial for hydration and cooling.
    7. Healthcare Preparedness: Train healthcare workers to recognize and treat heat-related illnesses promptly.
    8. Heat-Related Research: Invest in research to better understand local climate patterns, heatwave dynamics, and vulnerability assessments to tailor mitigation efforts effectively.
    9. Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions: As a long-term strategy, work towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the effects of global climate change.
    10. Adaptive Agriculture: Promote climate-resilient agricultural practices to reduce the impact of heatwaves on food production and farmers.
    11. Heat-Resilient Construction: Encourage the construction of buildings and infrastructure that can withstand extreme heat conditions.

    NDMA Guidelines:

    • You think someone is suffering from the heat:
      1. Move the person to a cool place under the shade
      2. Give water or a rehydrating drink (if the person is still conscious)
      3. Fan the person
      4. Consult a doctor if symptoms get worse or are long-lasting or if the person is unconscious
      5. Do not give alcohol, caffeine, or aerated drink
      6. Cool the person by putting a cool wet cloth on his/her face/body
      7. Loosen clothes for better ventilation
    • Emergency Kit
      1. Water bottle
      2. Umbrella/ Hat or Cap / Head Cover
      3. Hand Towel
      4. Hand Fan
      5. Electrolyte / Glucose / Oral Rehydration

    Way Forward:

    1. The National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC) should be implemented in true spirit for inclusive growth and ecological sustainability.
    2. Nature-based solutions should be considered, not just for tackling climate change-induced heat waves but also for doing so ethically and promoting intergenerational justice.
    3. Sustainable Cooling
    4. Passive cooling technology, a widely-used strategy to create naturally ventilated buildings, can be a vital alternative to address the urban heat island for residential and commercial buildings.
    5. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the third part of its AR6 stated that ancient Indian building designs that have used this technology, can be adapted to modern facilities in the context of global warming.
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  • Indic ideas can contribute to good governance

    Why in the News?

    India’s ancient scriptures, history, and culture serve as key inspirations for meaningful governance. As highlighted in the Bhagavad Gita, the concept of “adhishthan” forms the foundation, with PM Modi already promoting its integration.

    How can ancient Indic principles enhance modern governance?

    • Ethical Leadership and Accountability (Raj Dharma): Ancient Indic principles emphasize leaders as servants of the people, prioritizing fairness, justice, and public welfare. This aligns with modern demands for transparent and accountable governance.
    • Inclusive Development (Antyodaya): The concept of Antyodaya advocates for uplifting the marginalized and ensuring that governance benefits all sections of society, especially the most disadvantaged, which is essential for achieving equitable development.
    • Sustainability and Environmental Harmony (LiFE & Karmayogi): Indic principles stress balance with nature and responsible living, guiding modern governance towards sustainable development practices. Additionally, the Karmayogi concept promotes continuous skill-building for public servants to enhance governance effectiveness.

    What are the contemporary challenges to good governance in India?

    • Corruption and Lack of Accountability: Corruption remains a significant barrier to good governance in India, undermining public trust and the effectiveness of government programs.
    • Political Polarization: Increasing polarization between political parties has created a toxic environment that hampers constructive dialogue and collaboration.
    • Inequality and Access to Services: Economic disparities continue to widen, limiting access to essential services such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure for marginalized communities.
    • Bureaucratic Inefficiency: The inefficiency of bureaucratic processes often leads to delays in service delivery and implementation of policies.

    In what ways can citizen engagement be improved through Indic ideas?

    • Participative Governance (Sab Ka Prayas): The concept of Sab Ka Prayas emphasizes collective effort, where citizens are actively involved in decision-making and implementation processes.
    • Empathy and Responsibility (P2G2 – Pro-People Good Governance): By incorporating P2G2, which stresses sensitivity, commitment, and a sense of responsibility towards the people.
      • Citizens can be more engaged through empathetic governance that prioritizes their well-being and fosters trust in public institutions.
    • Empowerment through Education and Awareness (Antyodaya and Raj Dharma): Indic ideas like Antyodaya and Raj Dharma promote the empowerment of all individuals, particularly the marginalized, through education and awareness.

    Conclusion: To enhance governance, India should integrate ancient Indic principles like ethical leadership, inclusivity, and environmental sustainability into policy-making. This requires strengthening transparency, encouraging citizen participation, empowering marginalized communities, and fostering continuous capacity building in public administration for effective governance.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q What do you understand by the term ‘good governance’? How far recent initiatives in terms of e-Governance steps taken by the State have helped the beneficiaries? Discuss with suitable examples.   (UPSC IAS/2022)

  • [24th December 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: The GATT-ification of the World Trade Organization

    PYQ Relevance:

    Q) What are the key areas of reform if the WTO has to survive in the present context of ‘Trade War’, especially keeping in mind the interest of India? (UPSC CSE 2018)

    Mentor’s Comment: UPSC mains have always focused on topics like ‘WTO’ (2018) and ‘International Trading routes’ (2022).

    An Allianz Trade survey found that 82% of exporters are optimistic about turnover growth in 2024, 73% are also concerned about geopolitical risks and protectionism, highlighting the need for trade policies that promote growth while ensuring inclusivity and equity among nations.

    Today’s editorial likely critiques the current state of the World Trade Organization (WTO) by comparing it to its predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). This content can be used to present ‘Trade issues’ and ‘Free movement regimes’ in Global politics in your mains answers.

    _

    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    The trend of rising protectionism, especially when Donald Trump promised to impose high tariffs on imports from countries like China, Canada, and Mexico.

    • This shift raises concerns about increased consumer prices and disruptions in global supply chains, as countries focus more on supporting their domestic industries rather than cooperating internationally.
    About the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT):

    The GATT is a foundational international treaty established in 1947 to promote global trade by reducing tariffs, quotas, and other trade barriers. Initially signed by 23 countries, GATT aimed to facilitate economic recovery after World War II, evolved through several negotiation rounds, and the key features included:
    • Non-Discrimination Principle: Member countries must apply tariffs equally to all members, ensuring fair trade practices.
    • Tariff Reductions: GATT successfully lowered average tariffs among member nations from over 20% to around 5%.
    • Trade Facilitation: It provided a framework for resolving trade disputes and encouraged multilateral negotiations to further reduce barriers.
    The Uruguay Round concluded with the Marrakesh Agreement in 1994, which established the WTO as a successor to GATT. The World Trade Organization (WTO) was established on January 1, 1995. By the time it transitioned into the WTO, GATT had become a crucial instrument for promoting global trade liberalization, covering approximately 90% of international trade.

    The Appellate Body was established in 1995 as part of the WTO under Article 17 of the Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (DSU).
    • Aim: It serves to hear appeals from reports issued by panels in disputes between WTO member countries, acting as a higher court for trade-related legal issues.
    • Structure and Composition: The Appellate Body consists of 7 members, each appointed for a 4-year term by the Dispute Settlement Body (DSB). 
    • Members can be reappointed for additional terms. A Chairperson is elected annually among the members to oversee the Appellate Body’s operations.

    About the Recent WTO Conference:

    • The WTO for its 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13) in February 2024, raised critical issues such as dispute settlement reforms and the extension of the e-commerce moratorium.
    • This context highlights the need to reevaluate the WTO’s structure and effectiveness.

    How is the WTO experiencing a “GATT-ification”?

    • Existential Crisis: The WTO is set to miss its target of revitalizing a fully functional dispute settlement system by the end of 2024, with the Appellate Body (AB) remaining non-operational for over five years due to U.S. blockages in appointing members.
      • The obstruction began during the Obama administration, escalated under Trump, and continues under Biden, reflecting a bipartisan consensus against the AB.
      • Anticipations of a protectionist Trump 2.0 administration could further worsen the situation. Because, in 2018, he imposed a 25% tariff on various Chinese products, indicating a shift towards unilateral trade actions.
      • The real issue extends beyond the AB’s functionality; it involves the WTO’s relevance in global trade.
    • Challenges for Developing Nations: The informal nature of current discussions has hindered effective participation from many developing countries. India proposes transitioning discussions on reforms to formal WTO bodies to ensure inclusivity and representation from developing countries.
    • Uncertain Future: The future of the WTO’s dispute settlement system remains uncertain as the deadline approaches, with ongoing debates about restoring functionality and addressing broader institutional challenges.

    What is the present Unraveling of WTO Dynamics?

    • China’s Rise: China’s rise over the past two decades has significantly changed the global trade landscape. The U.S. facilitated China’s accession to the WTO in 2001, hoping it would adopt free-market principles and dismantle state-led industrial policies.
    • Expectations vs. Reality: Contrary to U.S. hopes, China did not dismantle its state-led policies and is perceived to have exploited the WTO system to its advantage. On the contrary, there is a belief in the U.S. that the WTO’s institutional controls limit its ability to address challenges posed by China.
    • The U.S. aims, as stated by international lawyer Daniel C.K. Chow, to undermine the WTO system, including the Appellate Body (AB), to gain more freedom in addressing the Chinese threat.
    • The U.S. can now implement trade remedial measures and develop industrial policies against China, even if they violate WTO laws, due to the lack of enforcement from the AB.

    Conclusion: The term ‘GATT-ification’, coined by Prof. Vidigal, highlights the shift in the international trading order and emphasizes that current negotiations cannot obscure the reality. The reversal shift to GATT-era diplomacy signifies a significant change in how international trade is governed, moving away from established multilateral frameworks toward more fragmented approaches.

    https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-gatt-ification-of-the-world-trade-organization/article69019794.ece

  • UN Internal Justice Council (IJC)

    Why in the News?

    Justice Madan B Lokur, retired judge of the Supreme Court of India, has been appointed as the Chairperson of the United Nations Internal Justice Council (IJC).

    Justice Lokur’s Legacy:

    • Justice Lokur served on the Supreme Court of India from June 2012 to December 2018, delivering landmark judgments across diverse areas of law.
    • In August 2019, he was appointed to the non-resident panel of the Supreme Court of Fiji and reappointed for another three-year term in January 2022.
    • His notable judgments include:
      • Electoral Disqualification on Religious Grounds (January 2017): Authored a concurring opinion in a seven-judge bench ruling disqualifying electoral candidates for seeking votes based on religion, race, caste, or other identity markers.
      • Raising the Age of Consent in Marriages (October 2017): Alongside Justice Deepak Gupta, ruled to raise the age of consent within marriages to 18 years, bolstering child protection laws.

    About UN Internal Justice Council (IJC):

    Establishment
      • Established in 2009 to reform and strengthen the UN’s internal justice system.
    • Ensures the system operates effectively, impartially, and transparently, addressing workplace disputes within the UN.
    Overview and Structural Mandate Mandate:

    • Safeguards the independence and integrity of the internal justice system.
    • The IJC is responsible for overseeing the administration of the UN’s internal justice system.
    • It supervises:
    1. Office of Staff Legal Assistance (OSLA)
    2. UN Dispute Tribunal (UNDT)
    3. UN Appeals Tribunal (UNAT)
    • Recommends measures to ensure judicial independence and efficiency in dispute resolution.

    Composition:

    • 5 members: 2 tribunal judges (from UNDT and UNAT), two staff representatives, and one external legal expert.
    • Chairperson is selected by consensus and appointed by the UN Secretary-General.
    • Members serve a four-year term, renewable once.
    Powers, Functions, and Jurisdiction Judicial Appointments:

    • Recommends candidates for UNDT and UNAT judge positions based on merit and judicial competence.
    • Proposes a shortlist for final selection by the Secretary-General.

    Oversight and Accountability:

    • Monitors tribunal functioning to ensure fairness and transparency.
    • Identifies and addresses systemic issues, proposing improvements.

    Judicial Independence:

    • Protects the impartiality of tribunal judges and safeguards judicial integrity.
    • Advocates for institutional protections against external influence.

    Advisory Role:

    • Provides expert advice on internal justice reform.
    • Evaluates tribunal processes to enhance efficiency and accessibility for UN staff.

    Scope of Jurisdiction:

    • Covers grievances related to administrative decisions, employment conditions, and workplace disputes brought forward by UN staff worldwide.

  • Mumps Vaccine

    Why in the News?

    Tamil Nadu Government has requested the Centre to consider including the Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) vaccine in the Universal Immunisation Programme (UIP) due to surge in the Mumps cases across the State.

    Tamil Nadu’s UIP currently offers 11 vaccines protecting against 12 vaccine-preventable diseases, including:

    • Tuberculosis, diphtheria, pertussis, hepatitis B, haemophilus influenzae, tetanus, poliomyelitis, measles, rubella, rota virus, pneumococcal, and Japanese encephalitis (in 14 endemic districts).
    • The Measles-Rubella (MR) vaccine was added to the UIP in April 2017, but mumps is yet to be included.

    About Mumps Disease

    • Mumps is a contagious viral infection caused by the mumps virus, primarily affecting the salivary glands, leading to swelling near the ears (parotitis), fever, headache, and muscle aches.
    • It spreads through respiratory droplets or direct contact with saliva.
    • While often mild, complications can include orchitis (testicular inflammation), oophoritis (ovarian inflammation), encephalitis, or hearing loss.
    • There is no specific treatment, but supportive care like rest, hydration, and pain management helps.
    • Vaccination with the MMR vaccine is the best prevention, offering 78–88% protection.

    Which free immunised diseases are provided under the Universal Immunization Programme (UIP)?

    • The UIP was launched in 1985 and became part of the National Health Mission in 2005 to provide free vaccination against vaccine-preventable diseases for children and pregnant women.
    • The programme now covers 12 diseases, including tuberculosis, polio, diphtheria, pertussis, measles, rubella, hepatitis B, pneumonia, rotavirus gastroenteritis, and Japanese encephalitis.
    • Key vaccines added over the years include Hepatitis B (2007), Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (2017), Inactivated Polio Vaccine (IPV), and Measles-Rubella Vaccine.
    • The entire cost of vaccines is covered by the Government of India, funded through taxes, with an annual budget of ₹7,234 crore (US$870 million) as of 2022.
    • The programme covers all residents of India, including foreign residents, ensuring nationwide access to life-saving vaccines.
    • 4 new vaccines have been introduced, including the Adult Japanese Encephalitis vaccine and Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine, to address emerging health challenges.

    Note:

    Mission Indradhanush is a health initiative launched by the Government of India on 25 December 2014 by Union Health Minister J. P. Nadda. The mission aims to achieve 90% full immunization coverage in India by 2022, targeting vaccination against eight major vaccine-preventable diseases:

    • Diphtheria, Whooping Cough, Tetanus, Polio, Measles, Childhood Tuberculosis, Hepatitis B, and Meningitis & Pneumonia caused by Haemophilus influenza type B.
      Additionally, it covers Rotavirus Diarrhea and Japanese Encephalitis in specific states and districts.

    The mission targets 201 districts in its first phase, focusing on areas with the highest number of unvaccinated children, particularly in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh. The approach follows similar planning and administration as the Pulse Polio Immunisation (PPI) program.

     

    PYQ:

    [2016]  ‘Mission Indradhanush’ launched by the Government of India pertains to:

    (a) Immunization of children and pregnant women.

    (b) Construction of smart cities across the country.

    (c) India’s own search for the Earth-like planets in outer space.

    (d) New Educational Policy.

  • India’s First Bio-Bitumen National Highway Inaugurated

    Why in the News?

    India’s first bio-bitumen-based National Highway stretch was inaugurated on NH-44 in Mansar, Nagpur, Maharashtra by Union Minister Nitin Gadkari.

    About Bio-Bitumen

    • Bio-bitumen is a bio-based binder derived from renewable, sustainable sources such as: Vegetable oils, Crop stubble, Algae, Lignin (a component of wood), Animal manure.
    • It serves as an alternative to traditional bitumen, which is primarily derived from the distillation of crude oil.
    • The production of bio-bitumen reduces dependence on petroleum and is a step toward sustainable road construction and infrastructure development.

    Significance and Features of Bio-Bitumen:

    • Bio-bitumen reduces the carbon footprint associated with the traditional bitumen production process.
    • By using renewable sources such as lignin (a byproduct of wood), it helps mitigate environmental concerns like stubble burning and contributes to lower greenhouse gas emissions, potentially by as much as 70% compared to fossil-based bitumen.
    • India, which heavily imports traditional bitumen, can reduce its import dependency by switching to bio-bitumen made from locally available materials.
    • The use of bio-bitumen stimulates bio-refineries, creating opportunities for revenue generation and providing economic benefits to farmers and the bio-refining industry.

    India’s Bitumen Scenario:

    • India imports around 50% of its total annual bitumen requirements, which amounted to 3.21 million tonnes in FY 2023-24.
    • The country produced 5.24 million tonnes of bitumen in the same period.
    • India’s bitumen consumption has been steadily increasing, averaging 7.7 million tonnes annually over the past five years.
    • In 2023-24, India constructed around 12,300 km of national highways, averaging nearly 34 km per day.

     

  • Google’s GenCast AI

    Why in the News?

    Google DeepMind has unveiled its revolutionary GenCast AI model, designed to predict the weather more accurately and farther in advance than current forecasting tools.

    About GenCast:

    What is it?
    • GenCast is an AI-based weather forecasting model developed by Google DeepMind.
    • It uses machine learning techniques for more accurate and long-term predictions compared to traditional models.
    • Unlike traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, GenCast uses an ensemble of AI-generated forecasts, trained on 40 years of reanalysis data.
    • Outperforms traditional tools in predicting extreme weather, tropical cyclones, and wind power production.
    How GenCast Works
    • Trained on 40 years of reanalysis data (1979–2019), blending historical data and modern forecasts.
    • It is powered by a neural network with 41,162 nodes and 240,000 edges, where nodes process data and edges connect them.
    • A diffusion model that refines noisy data in 30 steps to improve forecast accuracy.
    • It generates about 50 forecasts at once, providing probabilistic predictions (e.g., likelihood of rain, not exact amounts).
    • Generates forecasts in 8 minutes using a single TPU v5 unit, much faster than traditional NWP models, which take hours.
    Significance of GenCast
    • Outperforms ECMWF ensemble forecasts on 97.2% of targets, especially for extreme weather predictions.
    • Provides longer-term forecasts for up to 15 days, with spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° and 12-hour intervals.
    • Offers probabilistic forecasts to help better prepare for extreme weather.
    • Faster processing than traditional models, reducing forecast time from hours to minutes.
    • Sustainability and scalability allow the model to be expanded to other areas of weather prediction.
    • Google collaborates with weather agencies to enhance AI forecasting methods while recognizing the importance of traditional models.
  • Cyclones

    Cyclones

    Cyclone: rapid inward air circulation around a low-pressure area. The air circulates in an anticlockwise direction in the Northern hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern hemisphere.

    The word Cyclone is derived from the Greek word Cyclones meaning the coils of a snake.

    Tropical Cyclone: Intense low-pressure areas of the earth-atmosphere coupled system and are extreme weather events of the tropics.

    • A tropical cyclone is a term used globally to cover tropical weather systems in which winds equal or exceed ‘gale force’ (minimum of 34 knots, i.e., 62 kmph).
    Talk To UPSC Mentor

    Risk:

    • Subcontinent with a long coastline of 8041 kilometres is exposed to nearly 10 percent of the world’s tropical cyclones.
    • An analysis of the frequencies of cyclones during 1891-2000 shows that nearly 308 cyclones (out of which 103 were severe) affected the East Coast

    States Prone:

    Coastal States: The eastern coastal states like Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu, as well as the western coastal states of Gujarat and Maharashtra, are prone to cyclones and tropical cyclones. The Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea are cyclone-prone regions.

    Types of Tropical Cyclones:

    1. Hurricane (Atlantic and Northeast Pacific): These are powerful tropical cyclones with sustained winds of at least 74 mph (119 km/h). Example: Hurricane Katrina.
    2. Typhoon (Northwest Pacific): Similar to hurricanes, but the term “typhoon” is used in the Northwest Pacific region. Example: Typhoon Haiyan.
    3. Cyclone (Southwest Pacific and Indian Ocean): Cyclones are equivalent to hurricanes and typhoons but are referred to as cyclones in the Southwest Pacific and the Indian Ocean. Example: Cyclone Yasi.
    4. Tropical Storm: These are less intense than hurricanes, with sustained winds between 39 mph (63 km/h) and 73 mph (117 km/h). Example: Tropical Storm Harvey.
    5. Tropical Depression: The initial stage of a tropical cyclone, with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph (63 km/h). Example: Tropical Depression Barry.
    6. Super Typhoon (Western Pacific): A term used for exceptionally powerful typhoons with winds exceeding 150 mph (241 km/h). Example: Super Typhoon Meranti.

    Criteria to Declare:

    1. Large sea surface with a temperature higher than 27° C;
    2. Presence of the Coriolis force;
    3. Small variations in the vertical wind speed;
    4. A pre-existing weak-low-pressure area or low-level-cyclonic circulation;
    5. Upper divergence above the sea level system.
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    Causes:

    1. Warm Ocean Water: Cyclones are fueled by warm ocean waters, which provide heat and moisture, typically with sea surface temperatures of 26°C (79°F) or higher.
    2. Atmospheric Instability: Rising warm, moist air creates a low-pressure area that draws in more air, setting the cyclone in motion.
    3. Coriolis Effect: The rotation of the Earth causes the developing storm to spin, with the Coriolis effect.

    Mitigation:

    1. Early Warning Systems: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) provides early warning forecasts and tracks the movement of cyclones, allowing for timely evacuations and preparedness.
    2. Evacuation Plans: Coastal states and regions prone to cyclones have evacuation plans, with designated shelters and routes.
    3. Cyclone Resistant Infrastructure: Building codes and construction standards in cyclone-prone areas
    4. Mangrove Conservation: Act as natural barriers against storm surges associated with cyclones.

    NDMA Guidelines:

    1. If indoors:
      1. DROP to the ground, take cover by getting under a sturdy table or other piece of furniture, and HOLD ON until the shaking stops. If no table or desk is near you, cover your face and head with your arms and crouch in an inside corner of the building.
      2. Protect yourself by staying under the lintel of an inner door, in the corner of a room, under a table, or even under a bed.
      3. Stay away from glass, windows, outside doors and walls, and anything that could fall, (such as lighting fixtures or furniture).
      4. Stay in bed if you are there when the earthquake strikes. Hold on and protect your head with a pillow, unless you are under a heavy light fixture that could fall. In that case, move to the nearest safe place.
    2. If outdoors:
      1. Do not move from where you are. However, move away from buildings, trees, streetlights, and utility wires.
      2. If you are in open space, stay there until the shaking stops. The greatest danger exists directly outside buildings; at exits; and alongside exterior walls. Most earthquake-related casualties result from collapsing walls, flying glass, and falling objects.

    Way Forward:

    1. Our response to cyclones and tropical cyclones must include advanced prediction systems, resilient infrastructure, community preparedness, and international cooperation.
    2. By investing in early warning systems and constructing cyclone-resistant buildings, we can save lives and reduce damage.
    3. Furthermore, addressing climate change is paramount to curbing the increasing intensity and frequency of these storms.
    4. In the face of these diverse and potent natural hazards, a holistic approach that combines science, technology, community engagement, and global collaboration is our best defence.
    Talk To UPSC Mentor

  • [23rd December 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: Pointing the beacon at India’s undersea warfare power

    PYQ Relevance:

    Q) What are the maritime security challenges in India? Discuss the organisational, technical and procedural initiatives taken to improve maritime security. (UPSC CSE 2022)

    Mentor’s Comment: UPSC mains have always focused on topics like ‘Indo-Pacific’ (2020) and ‘Maritime Security’ (2022).

    Since late 2023, the Indian Navy has responded to numerous piracy incidents in the Indian Ocean, solidifying its role as a “first responder” in regional crises (Red Sea). These operations showcase India’s capabilities and reinforce its position as a preferred security partner in the region.

    Today’s Editorial focuses on Maritime security initiatives taken by the government and enhancement opportunities. This content can be used for presenting the main answer while talking on ‘Indo-Pacific issues’ and ‘security challenges in the Indian Ocean’.

    _

    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    In 2024, the Indian Navy’s Operation ‘Sankalp’ expanded its maritime security efforts from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, enhancing its role as a key security partner by addressing piracy, hijacking, and drone threats while tackling the Hauthis issue.

    • Additionally, the year saw notable advancements in the Navy’s operational preparedness, particularly in undersea warfare.
    What is Operation ‘Sankalp’?

    • The Indian Navy launched Operation ‘Sankalp’ on June 19, 2019, to ensure the safety of Indian ships in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
    • The operation was launched in response to rising tensions in the Gulf of Oman, where two oil tankers were attacked. The Indian Navy deploys ships and aircraft to the area to monitor and protect Indian-flagged vessels
    • The operation has provided safe passage for an average of 16 Indian-flagged ships daily. The operation is coordinated by the Indian Ministries of Defence, External Affairs, Shipping, Petroleum and Natural Gas, and the Directorate General of Shipping.

    What are the current advancements in India’s submarine capabilities?

    • INS Arighaat: India’s second nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, commissioned in August 2024, enhances the country’s nuclear triad by providing a credible deterrence against regional threats, particularly from China, with its capability to launch K-4 missiles over 3,500 kilometres.
      • Equipped with advanced sonar and propulsion systems, INS Arighaat significantly strengthens India’s maritime strike capabilities.
    • Project-77 (P-77): It is an Indian Navy acquisition program to procure nuclear-powered attack submarines.
      • The Cabinet Committee on Security recently cleared the long-pending Project-77 (P-77), giving its final approval to construct two nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) at a cost of ₹40,000 crore. The delivery of the first SSN is scheduled for 2036-37.

    What is the relevance of Conventional Submarines?

    • Ongoing Importance: Despite the advancements in nuclear submarines, conventional submarines remain essential for various undersea missions that do not require nuclear capabilities.
    • Project-75: India is set to commission INS Vaghsheer (the 6th Scorpene submarine), as part of its collaboration with France, with plans to order three additional boats to replace older decommissioned ones.
    Advancements in Technology:

    • Air Independent Propulsion (AIP): The effectiveness of conventional submarines has improved due to AIP technology, prompting Project 75(I) to seek AIP-enabled boats from contenders like Spain and Germany.
    • Indigenous Content: Future Scorpene boats are expected to feature 60% indigenous content, while Project 75(I) aims for at least 45% in the first boat, increasing to 60% in subsequent units.
    • Development of Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs): India has approved the construction of 100-tonne UUVs at a cost of ₹2,500 crore, enhancing undersea capabilities as a cost-effective strategic option. This initiative reflects India’s focus on niche technologies to address complex maritime threats effectively.Indigenous

    What are the Hurdles in Enhancing Undersea Capabilities?

    • Strategic Importance: The Indian government’s focus on enhancing the Navy’s undersea capabilities alongside surface and aviation elements aims to ensure maritime stability and security, contributing to a balanced blue water force.
    • Budgetary Challenges: Addressing long-standing budgetary issues is essential to align planned acquisitions and modernization efforts, as well as to mitigate excessive delays in project timelines.

    Way Forward:

    • Need for Sustained Funding: Continuous financial support for long-term projects, along with streamlined processes for defining requirements and evaluating tenders, is crucial for meeting the Navy’s strategic and operational needs.
    • Opportunities for Collaboration: Strengthening partnerships with strategic allies and friendly maritime nations can enhance India’s maritime capabilities, support its vision of Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR), and promote a free and inclusive Indo-Pacific.

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