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Subject: Economics

  • Rising global food prices: Causes and Solution

    Context

    This increase in global food prices which manifested itself in the three food price crises since the 1960s offers some pertinent lessons for global food systems and the international community.

    Managing year-to-year volatility Vs. periodic spikes in food prices

    • Year-to-year volatility is easily managed by most countries through changes in their trade and domestic policies.
    • But steep and severe periodic price shocks can lead to some sort of a crisis at the global and national levels.
    • Implications: The crisis can emerge in the form of food shortages, trade disruptions, a rise and spread in hunger and poverty levels, depletion of foreign exchange reserves, a strain on a nationā€™s fiscal resources, a threat to peace, and even social unrest in some places.

    History of food crises after since adoption of Green Revolution

    • Data from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the World Bank/International Monetary Fund show that since the onset and the adoption of Green Revolution technology in the early 1960s, the world has been struck thrice by food price crises.
    • First shock-1973-76: The first shock was experienced during 1973-76 when the food price index (based on prices in U.S. dollars) doubled in nominal terms.
    • Declining trend: For the next two decades, food prices in real terms followed a declining trend and were at their lowest around 2002.
    • After this, nominal as well as the real prices of food began rising.
    • Second crisis-2008: This momentum built up to culminate in the next food price crisis of 2008, which was further intensified by 2011.
    • While the price shock began softening after 2014, food prices did not move back to their pre-2006 level.
    • Third crisis-2020:Ā This time the increase in the food price index happened very quickly and it turned out to be very big – it has taken the food price index to its historically highest level.
    • Cause outside agriculture: All the three food price crises were triggered by factors outside agriculture.
    • They were not caused by any serious shortfall in agriculture production.
    • The interval between crises is reducing: The interval between two consecutive price shocks has narrowed down considerably and the severity of shock is turning stronger.

    What are the causes responsible for the recent food price crisis?

    • 1] Covid-19 and Ukraine crisis: It wasĀ triggered by supply disruptions due to COVID-19 and further aggravated by the Russia-Ukraine war.
    • The current food price spike first began in vegetable oils and then expanded to cereals.
    • Higher the global trade higher disruption: The effect of global trade disruption will be higher for commodities that are traded more and vice-versa.
    • 2] Diversion of food for biofuel: Another factor underlying the rising trend and spikes in food prices is the diversion of food for biofuel needs.
    • When crude prices increase beyond a certain level it becomes economical to use oilseeds and grains for biodiesel and ethanol, respectively.
    • The second reason for the use of food crops for biofuel is the mandates to increase the share of renewable energy resources.
    • 3] Increased cost of agrochemicals and fertilisers: Food prices are also expected to go up in the current and next harvest season because of an increase in the prices of fertilizer and other agrochemicals.

    Way forward for India

    • Transmission of international prices to domestic prices can be prevented only if there is no trade.
    • 1] Trade policy changes: This transmission of global prices to the domestic market can be moderated through trade policy and other instruments.
    • When international prices go too low, India has checks on cheap imports to protect the interests of producers; and when international prices go too high, the country liberalises imports and imposes checks on exports to ensure adequate availability and reasonable food prices for domestic consumers.
    • 2] Buffer stock: The policy of having a buffer stock of food staples has also been very helpful in maintaining price stability, especially in the wake of global food crises.
    • 3] Strategic liberalisation: India should continue with a policy of strategic liberalisation, as followed in the past, to balance the interests of producers and consumers.
    • 4] Maintain image as a reliable and credible exporter: The importance of agriculture exports to mop up food and agriculture surplus from the country is increasing.
    • Ongoing trends in domestic demand and supply imply that India will be required to dispose of 15% of its domestic food output in the overseas market by 2030.
    • This underscores the need to maintain Indiaā€™s image as a reliable and credible exporter.
    • However, it is important to differentiate between the two situations: disturbing normal export and regulating exports exceeding the normal level.

    What are the implications for India?

    • Increased prices in India: Export and import in the agriculture sector constituted 13% of gross value added in agriculture during 2020-21.
    • Therefore, some transmission of an increase in global prices on domestic prices is inevitable.
    • Wheat export ban and implications:Ā The recent ban on wheat exports and restrictions on the export of other food commodities by India need to be seen in the light of an abnormal situation created by spikes in international prices.
    • Some experts see it as a setback to Indiaā€™s image as a reliable exporter as this move is seen to disrupt (regular) export channels.
    • A closer examination of data reveals that Indiaā€™s action to ban or restrict food exports is not disrupting its normal exports.
    • India was a very small exporter of wheat, with its share in global wheat trade ranging between 0.1% to 1% during 2015-16 to 2020-21.
    • The international market is looking for around 50 million tonnes of wheat to compensate for the disruption in wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine.
    • If India had not imposed a ban on wheat export, it would have resulted in a severe shortage of wheat within the country.

    Global impact and suggestions

    • As the steam of Green Revolution technology slowed down with the start of the 21st century, food prices began increasing in real terms.
    • New breakthroughs required: The world requires new breakthroughs such as Green Revolution technology, for large-scale adoption in order to enable checks on food prices rising at a faster rate.
    • Increase spending on agri-research: This in turn requires increased spending on agriculture research and development (especially by the public sector and multilateral development agencies).
    • Strengthen global agri-research system: There is a need to strengthen and rejuvenate the global agri-research system under the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) which is heading towards disarray.
    • Rethink biofuel protocols: Biofuel protocols have contributed to the global food crisis for the second time in the last 15 years.
    • Diversion of land under food crops and food output for biofuel should be carefully calibrated with implications for food availability.

    Conclusion

    • The last three food price crises were primarily caused due to an increase in energy prices and disruptions in the movement of food across borders.
    • Factors related to climate change are going to be an additional source of supply shocks in the years ahead.
    • Therefore, the global community must plan to have a global buffer stock of food in order to ensure reasonable stability in food prices and supply.

    Back2Basics: Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)

    • CGIARĀ (formerly theĀ Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) is a global partnership that unitesĀ international organizationsĀ engaged in research about food security.
    • CGIAR research aims to reduce rural poverty, increase food security, improve human health and nutrition, and sustainable management of natural resources.

  • The way forward on 5G

    Context

    The near-death of competition signalled by the incipient exit of Vi late last year pushed the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) to announce steps to prevent the premature exit of a sagging operator.

    About 5G

    • 5G is the 5th generation mobile network.
    • It is a new global wireless standard after 1G, 2G, 3G, and 4G networks.
    • 5G can be significantly faster than 4G, delivering up to 20 Gigabits-per-second (Gbps) peak data rates and 100+ Megabits-per-second (Mbps) average data rates.
    • 5G enables a new kind of network that is designed to connect virtually everyone and everything together including machines, objects, and devices.
    • 5G wireless technology is meant to deliver higher multi-Gbps peak data speeds,Ā ultra low latency, more reliability, massive network capacity, increased availability, and a more uniform user experience to more users.
    • Higher performance and improved efficiency empower new user experiences and connects new industries.
    • With high speeds, superior reliability and negligible latency, 5G will expand the mobile ecosystem into new realms.
    • 5G will impact every industry, making safer transportation, remote healthcare, precision agriculture, digitized logisticsĀ ā€” and more ā€” a reality.

    Indiaā€™s telecom sector: From monopoly to hyper-competition to duopoly

    • Indiaā€™s telecom market has seen monopoly as well as hyper-competition.
    • Twenty-five years ago, the government alone could provide services.
    • Technology and deregulation: In the following years, the combined forces of technology and deregulation helped break the shackles of public sector dominance despite the latterā€™s stiff resistance
    • In the following years, there were nearly a dozen competing operators. Most service areas now have four players.
    • However, the possible exit of the financially-stressed Vodafone Idea would leave only two dominant players-Airtel and Jio in the telecom sector.
    • A looming duopoly, or the exit of a global telecommunications major, are both worrying.
    • They deserve aĀ careful and creative response.

    Government package for telecom sector to prevent duopoly

    • The near-death of competition signalled by the incipient exit of Vi late last year pushed the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) to announce steps to prevent the premature exit of a sagging operator.
    • As a part of its support package for the telecom sector, in October 2021, it dispensed with the requirement of performance bank guarantees required earlier as security.
    • It increased the tenure of spectrum holding from 20 to 30 years.
    • It allowed for the surrender of the unutilised or underutilised spectrum after 10 years.
    • Most importantly removed the levy of spectrum usage charges.Ā 

    Why competitive telecom market is important?

    • Key to achieving digital ambitions: A competitive telecom sector is fundamental to realising Indiaā€™s digital ambitions.
    • Innovation: Monopolies have no incentive to innovate.
    • Investment: The competition will guarantee that operators find it attractive to invest in network infrastructure upgradation and offer consumers a wide range of innovative service options.
    • Source of revenue: A competitive telecom sector would be an indirect source of tax revenue as well.
    • How to make market competitive? Competition cannot be willed into the sector.
    • It needs careful nurturing, assiduous fostering and regulatory neutrality.Ā 

    Way forward on 5G

    • Structural changes: While the package may have prevented the exit of Vi from the market, to embed competition within the sector, structural changes are necessary.
    • The imminent 5G networks demand massive investment and sophistication of operations.
    • 1] Level playing field: This will not be achieved unless the playing field is level across the relevant operators and honest incentives are provided to operators to embrace new technology.
    • Ā 2] Change the spectrum allocation method: There is no doubt that spectrum auctions have served India well in the past due to the acrimonious political economy associated with administrative spectrum assignment, including First Come First Serve (FCFS) method.
    • The auction regime worked well when demand exceeded supply, but if there is an adequate quantity of spectrum for everyone, that constraint would not exist.
    • Administrative assignments can thus be considered once again.
    • 3] Administrative assignments:Ā  An administrative assignment will include the possibility that all spectrum can be assigned at reasonable prices and in the process, a grand bargain can be struck with telecom operators.
    • 4] Assigning 5G spectrum for private enterprise business: TRAI and the Digital Communications Commission (DCC) are considering whether 5G spectrum should be assigned to companies like TCS, Amazon and Google, among others, for their private enterprise business.
    • 5G spectrum assignment for enterprises would adversely affect the business model of telcos.
    • But there will be enterprises that telcos could serve that are not large enough to purchase 5G spectrum.
    • A grand bargain that allows enterprises to buy 5G spectrum while assigning spectrum to the existing telcos through the administrative route will also serve the revenue needs of the government.
    • 5] Privatise public sector operator: This is an opportunity to also signal to the public sector operator that 5G business is outside the range of its capability set.
    • Hence like Air India it needs to be privatised in the fullness of time.
    • These are difficult decisions and will need much more political will than in 1994.

    Consider the question “Why a competitive telecom market is a prerequisite for achieving India’s digital dream and why an eminent duopoly in the sector stands to threaten that dream? Suggest way forward.”

    Conclusion

    It would be tragic if Indiaā€™s telecom-access market was to be reduced to only two competing operators, as we have a long way to go. What we need is structural changes in the sectors as well as the way the sector is regulated.

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    Back2Basics: Spectrum usage charges

    • Companies had to payĀ 3-5 per cent of their adjusted gross revenue (AGR) as spectrum usage charge to the department of telecom.
    • If they share spectrum with another operator, operators must pay an additional 0.5 per cent of AGR for that band as SUC.
    • However, in September 2021, the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) decided to remove the floor rate of 3% of the adjusted gross revenue (AGR) for operators to pay their spectrum usage charge (SUC).
    • The removal of the clause fixing a floor rate of 3% was done to give effect to the recently announced telecom relief package.
    • Though the telecom package talks of scrapping SUC only on spectrum acquired in future auctions like that of 5G, if the 3% floor is abolished, as and when operators acquire more spectrum in future auctions, their SUC will become zero on the entire holding.
    • This is because of a complex weighted average formula to calculate the SUC of operators who have a mix of administratively allocated spectrum and acquired through auctions.

  • India specific factors that have bearing on inflation trajectory

    Context

    Inflation is turning into a global concern fueled by multiple global factors. However, in India there are a few other triggers that will have a bearing on the inflationary trajectory.

    Global inflation concerns

    • All that could have possibly triggered higherĀ inflationĀ globally has already occurred ā€” multiple waves of the pandemic, supply disruptions, an overdose of policy stimuli, war, sanctions, energy shocks, geopolitical adversity and weather disruptions.

    1] Impact of MSP on inflation

    • TheĀ MSPĀ that is fixed by the government for kharif and rabi crops has been one of the key policy instruments.
    • Policymakers in India have often acted with alacrity to protect the interests of farmers over the years.
    • In the last 20 years, the weighted average MSP for kharif crops saw double-digit growth four times ā€” in 2007, 2008, 2012 and 2018.
    • Food inflation shot up to 12 per cent in 2007-08 as against 8 per cent in 2006-07 and 4 per cent in 2005-06.
    • The inflationary surge continued in 2009 as a monsoon failure hit agricultural output hard.
    • Global agricultural commodity prices started to rise in 2010 again and the FAO food price index reached an all-time high in July 2012.
    • One of the key reasons for the increase in food prices was the oil price surge and a rise in demand for biofuel production.
    • The global upside in food prices coincided with a 22 per cent increase in MSP for Kharif crops in India.
    • Following the rise in MSP, food inflation in 2012 increased by 14.6 per cent as against 3.6 per cent the preceding year.
    • In Ā 2018, for the first time, the MSPs for all 23 kharif and rabi crops were fixed at a margin of at least 50 per cent higher than the cost of cultivation.
    • The cost of cultivation (A2 + FL) includes the paid-out cost and cost of imputed family labour.
    • Accordingly, the MSP of kharif crops in 2018 saw an annual increase of about 14 per cent.
    • However, despite the significant rise in MSP, food inflation in 2018-19 was muted at 0.3 per cent.
    • This was because farm input costs were under control and the terms of trade for farmers remained positive.

    2] Impact of GST on inflation

    • Raising the revenue-neutral rate: In the upcoming meeting, there is talk of changes in GST slabs and rates with an eye on raising the revenue-neutral rate from around 11.5 per cent, which is far lower than the 15.5 per cent estimated at the time of the launch of GST.
    • Avoid the shock: However, a GST rate shock to the system is best avoided given the global inflationary backdrop and the fragility of consumer balance sheets.

    3] Influence of weather

    • While the dependence of agricultural output on the quantum of rainfall has reduced, variance in the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is emerging as a key risk.
    • A look at 2021 ā€” a normal monsoon year with rainfall at 99 per cent of itsĀ long period averageĀ ā€” is instructive.
    • The late excess rains delayed the crop cycle and led to crop damage in several parts of the country.
    • Likewise, the spatial distribution of rainfall remained uneven in 2021.
    • Thus, even with normal rainfall in 2021, there were several disruptions to the crop cycle and farm cash flows.

    Conclusion

    The government has taken various steps lately to rein in inflation. However, the RBI will have little freedom in case the GST council decides to accord revenue protection to states via higher GST rates or if the monsoon is not in line with expectations. One hopes these events pan out right, like the MSP hike, when most other things have gone wrong.

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  • India is not the fastest growing big economy

    Context

    TheĀ Provisional Estimates of Annual National Income in 2021-22Ā just released show thatĀ GDP grew 8.7%Ā in real terms and 19.5% in nominal terms (including inflation). It makes India the fastest growing major economy in the world.

    What data implies

    • Just 1.51% larger: Provisional Estimates of Annual National Income in 2021-22 also indicate that, the real economy is 1.51% larger than it was in 2019-20, just before the novel coronavirus pandemic hit the world.
    • In nominal terms it is higher by 17.9%.
    • Inflation: These numbers imply that the rate of inflation was 10.8% in 2021-22 and 16.4% between the two years, 2019-20 and 2021-22.
    • Almost no growth: This picture implies almost no growth and high inflation since the pre-pandemic year.
    • So, the tag of the fastest growing economy means little.
    • Quarterly growth rate: The quarter to quarter growth currently may give some indication of the present rate of growth.
    • In 2020-21, the quarterly rate of growth increased through the year.
    • In 2021-22, the rate of growth has been slowing down.
    • Of course in 2020-21, the COVID-19 lockdown had a severe impact in Q1 (-23.8%); after that the rate of growth picked up.
    • In 2021-22, the rate of growth in Q1 had to sharply rise (20.3%).
    • Ignoring the outliers in Q1, growth rates in 2021-22 have sequentially petered out in subsequent quarters: 8.4%, 5.4% and 4.1%.
    • Going forward, while the lockdown in China is over, the war-related impact is likely to persist since there is no end in sight.
    • Thus, price rise and impact on production are likely to persist.

    Issues with the data

    • The issue is about correctness of data.
    • The annual estimates given now are provisional since complete data are not available for 2021-22.
    • There is a greater problem with quarterly estimates since very limited data are available for estimating it.
    • No data for Q1 of 2020-21: The first issue is that during 2020-21, due to the pandemic, full data could not be collected for Q1.
    • No data for agriculture: Further, for agriculture, quarterly data assumes that the targets are achieved.
    • Agriculture is a part of the unorganised sector.
    • Very little data are available for it but for agriculture ā€” neither for the quarter nor for the year.
    • It is simply assumed that the limited data available for the organised sector can be used to act as a proxy.
    • The non-agriculture unorganised sector is represented by the organised sector.
    • Changes in non-agriculture unorganised: The method using the organised sector to proxy the unorganised non-agriculture sector may have been acceptable before demonetisation (2016) but is not correct since then.
    • The reason is that the unorganised non-agriculture sector suffered far more than the organised sector and more so during the waves of the pandemic.
    • Shift in demand to the organised sector: Large parts of the unorganised non-agriculture sector have experienced a shift in demand to the organised sector since they produce similar things.
    • This introduces large errors in GDP estimates since official agencies do not estimate this shift.
    • All that is known is that the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector has faced closures and failures.
    • If GDP data are incorrect, data on its components ā€” private consumption and investment ā€” must also be incorrect.
    • Further, the ratios themselves would have been impacted by the shock of the lockdown and the decline of the unorganised sectors.
    • Private consumption data is suspect since according to the data given by the Reserve Bank of India which largely captures the organised sector, consumer confidence throughout 2021-22 was way below its pre-pandemic level of 104 achieved in January 2020.
    • In brief, neither the total nor the ratios are correct.

    Possible corrections

    • In the best possible scenario,Ā  assume that the organised sector (55% of GDP) and agriculture (14% of GDP) are growing at the official rate of growth of 8.2% and 3%, respectively.
    • Then, they would contribute 4.93% to GDP growth.
    • The non-agriculture unorganised component is declining for two reasons: first, the closure of units and the second the shift in demand to the organised sector.
    • Even if 5% of the units have closed down this year and 5% of the demand has shifted to the organised sector, the unorganised sector would have declined by about 10%; the contribution of this component to GDP growth would be -3.1%.

    Conclusion

    Clearly, recovery is incomplete and India is not the fastest growing big economy of the world.

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  • Indian Patent Regime vs. US norms

    The US Trade Representative (USTR) said in a report released last month that India was one of the most challenging major economies as far as IP protection and enforcement is concerned.

    What is the news?

    • US has decided to retain India on its Priority Watch List along with six other countries ā€”Argentina, Chile, China, Indonesia, Russia and Venezuela.

    What is a Patent?

    • A patent is an exclusive set of rights granted for an invention, which may be a product or process that provides a new way of doing something or offers a new technical solution to a problem.

    Indian Patent Regime: A Backgrounder

    • Indian patents are governed by the Indian Patent Act of 1970.
    • India has gradually aligned itself with international regimes pertaining to intellectual property rights.
    • It became a party to the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) Agreement following its membership to the World Trade Organisation on January 1, 1995.
    • An interesting point is that the original Indian Patents Act did not grant patent protection to pharmaceutical products to ensure that medicines were available at a low price.
    • Patent protection of pharmaceuticals were re-introduced after the 2005 amendment to comply with TRIPS.

    Various agreements

    • India is also a signatory to several IPR related conventions, including the Berne Convention, which governs copyright.
    • It is signatory to the Budapest Treaty, the Paris Convention for the Protection of Industrial Property, and the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT), all of which govern various patent-related matters.

    Issues raised about India

    • Among the issues raised in the report are:
    1. Indiaā€™s inconsistencies regarding patent protection
    2. Concerns about what can be patented
    3. Waiting time for obtaining patents
    4. Burdensome reporting requirements and
    5. Doubts about data safety
    6. Trademark counterfeiting and secrets
    • India had undertaken an intellectual property review exercise last year, where a Parliamentary Standing Committee examined this subject.

    Contention of the US: Patents Evergreening

    • One of the main points of contention between India and the U.S. has been Article 3(d) of the Indian Patent Act.
    • Section 3 deals with what does not qualify as an invention under the Act, and Section 3(d) in particular excludes the mere discovery of a new form of a known substance.
    • Section 3(d) prevents the mere discovery of any new property or new use for a known substance from being patented as an invention unless it enhances the efficacy of the substance repetitive.
    • This prevents, what is known as ā€œEvergreeningā€ of patents.
    • According to the Committeeā€™s report, Section 3(d) allows for ā€œgeneric competition by patenting only novel and genuine inventions.ā€

    TRIPS and the Doha Declaration

    • The Doha Declaration on the TRIPS Agreement and Public Health was adopted on November 14, 2021, by the WTO member states.
    • This declaration recognises the gravity of public health problems affecting developing and least developed nations.
    • It recognises that ā€œintellectual property protection is important for the development of new medicines,ā€ and acknowledges concerns about its effects on prices.
    • It is interpreted and implemented as a right to protect public health and, in particular, to promote access to medicines for all.

    Key provisions of Doha Agreement

    • Compulsory licences can be invoked by a state in public interest, allowing companies apart from the patent owner to produce a patented product without consent.
    • It concluded that India must not compromise on the patentability criteria under Section 3(d).
    • It said that this ensures the growth of generic drug makers and the publicā€™s access to affordable medicines.
    • It indicated that India should resolve its differences with the US regarding the disqualification of incremental inventions through bilateral dialogue.

    Positive steps taken by India

    • The USTR report highlighted some positive steps taken by India in the recent past.
    • India has accession to the World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO) Performances and Phonograms Treaty and WIPO Copyright Treaty, collectively known as the WIPO Internet Treaties, in 2018 and the Nice Agreement in 2019.

    Back2Basics: Intellectual Properties

    • IP is protected in law by, for example, patents, copyright and trademarks, which enable people to earn recognition or financial benefit from what they invent or create.
    • By striking the right balance between the interests of innovators and the wider public interest, the IP system aims to foster an environment in which creativity and innovation can flourish.

    Types of IP:

    (1) Copyright

    • Copyright is a legal term used to describe the rights that creators have over their literary and artistic works.
    • Works covered by copyright range from books, music, paintings, sculpture and films, to computer programs, databases, advertisements, maps and technical drawings.

    (2) Patents

    Discussed above

    (3) Trademarks

    • A trademark is a sign capable of distinguishing the goods or services of one enterprise from those of other enterprises.
    • Trademarks date back to ancient times when artisans used to put their signature or ā€œmarkā€ on their products.

    (4) Geographical Indications

    • Geographical indications and appellations of origin are signs used on goods that have a specific geographical origin and possess qualities, a reputation or characteristics that are essentially attributable to that place of origin.
    • Most commonly, a geographical indication includes the name of the place of origin of the goods.

    (5) Trade secrets

    • Trade secrets are IP rights on confidential information which may be sold or licensed.
    • The unauthorized acquisition, use or disclosure of such secret information in a manner contrary to honest commercial practices by others is regarded as an unfair practice and a violation of the trade secret protection.

     

     

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  • RBI plans to link Credit Cards with UPI

    The RBI has proposed to allow the linking of credit cards with the Unified Payments Interface (UPI).

    Integrating Credit Cards to UPI

    • The integration will first begin with the indigenous RuPay credit cards.
    • Both the RuPay network and UPI are managed by the same organisation ā€“ the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI).

    What is UPI?

    • UPI is an instant real-time payment system developed by National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) facilitating inter-bank transactions.
    • The interface is regulated by the Reserve Bank of India and works by instantly transferring funds between two bank accounts on a mobile platform.

    Why such move?

    • The linkage of UPI and credit cards could possibly result in credit card usage zooming up in India given UPIā€™s widespread adoption.
    • The integration also opens up avenues to build credit on UPI through credit cards in India, where in the last few years, a number of startups like Slice, Uni, One etc. have emerged.
    • The move could also be a push to increase adoption by banking on UPIā€™s large user base.
    • So far, UPI could only be linked to debit cards and bank accounts.
    • This will provide additional convenience to the users and enhance the scope of digital payments.

    What could be the hurdles?

    • There are some regulatory areas that would have to be addressed before the linkage happens.
    • For instance, it is not clear how the Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) will be applied to UPI transactions done through credit cards.
    • UPI and RuPay attract zero-MDR, meaning that no charges are applied to these transactions, which is a key reason behind the prolific adoption of UPI both by users and merchants.
    • The norm has faced pushback from the payments industry.
    • It has argued that it limits the aggregatorsā€™ ability to invest in and maintain the financial infrastructure of the payment ecosystem that they have built.
    • Applicability of zero-MDR on UPI could also be a reason why other card networks such as Visa and Mastercard may not have been onboarded to UPI for credit cards yet.

    Note: MDR is a fee that a merchant is charged by their issuing bank for accepting payments from their customers via credit and debit cards.

    What is the big picture?

    • UPI has become the most inclusive mode of payment in India with over 26 crore unique users and five crore merchants on the platform.
    • The progress of UPI in recent years has been unparalleled.
    • Many other countries are engaged with us in adopting similar methods in their countries.
    • In May, UPI processed 5.95 billion transactions worth over Rs 10 trillion, a record high since its launch in 2016.
    • NPCI is looking to soon process a billion transactions a day.

     

    Try this PYQ from CSP 2017:

    Q.Which one of the following best describes the term ā€œMerchant Discount Rateā€ sometimes seen in news?

     

    (a) The incentive given by a bank to a merchant for accepting payments through debit cards pertaining to that bank

    (b) The amount paid back by banks to their customers when they use debit cards for financial transactions for purchasing goods or services

    (c) The charge to a merchant by a bank for accepting payments from his customers through the bankā€™s debit cards

    (d) The incentive is given by the Government to merchants for promoting digital payments by their customers through Point of Sale (PoS) machines and debit cards

     

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”jap9mp9zh2″ question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here.[/wpdiscuz-feedback]

     

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  • Monetary tightening and its impact on growth

    Context

    A rate hike in theĀ monetary policy committeeā€™s June meeting was a foregone conclusion after the spike inĀ inflationĀ and an off-cycle surprise interest rate hike on May 4.

    Reasons fast forwarding of interest rate hike

    • 1] Broad based inflation: A confluence of factors has pushed inflation higher and made it persistent and broad-based.Ā 
    • 2] Policy rates are still negative: Even with this hike, the repo rate, the signalling tool for bank interest rates, is still below pre-pandemic levels.
    • The real policy rate (repo rate less expected inflation) remains negative and has some distance to cover before it reaches positive territory ā€” where the RBI would like to see it.
    • 3] Lag in effect: Monetary policy impacts growth, and thereafter, inflation with a lag.
    • To control inflation, the RBI needed to act faster by front loading rate hikes.
    • 4] Elevated inflation expectations: The risk of inflation expectations getting unmoored had risen.
    • Household and business inflation expectations remain elevated, as indicated by the RBIā€™s inflation expectations survey of households.
    • 5] Interest rate hike in the US: The aggressive stance of the US Federal Reserve and ensuing tightening financial conditions.
    • India is better placed today than in 2013 to face the Fedā€™s actions with a stronger forex shield.

    How US Fed’s actions affect India?

    • India is not insulated.
    • Capital outflow: The headwinds now are stronger than in 2013 and we have seen net capital outflows since October 2021.
    • S&P Global expects the US federal funds rate to be hiked to 3-3.25 per cent in 2023, higher than the pre-pandemic level, and highest since early 2008.
    • Despite a strong forex hoard, the RBI has had to deploy monetary policy to mute the impact of the Fedā€™s actions.

    Inflation and its impact

    • Upward pressure on food inflation: The pressure on food inflation has increased owing to the impact of the freak heatwave on wheat, tomatoes and mangoes, which is driving prices higher.
    • This is on top of rising input costs for agricultural production, the global surge in food prices and the expected sharper than usual rise inĀ minimum support price.
    • Fuel inflation will remain high, duty cuts notwithstanding, as global crude prices remain volatile at elevated levels.
    • Core inflation, the barometer of demand, is a complex story.
    • Goods (despite only partial pass-through of input costs) are witnessing higher inflation than services.
    • Thatā€™s because services faced tighter restrictions during theĀ Covid-19Ā waves, restricting their consumption and the pricing power of providers as well.
    • Service categories that are mostly regulated, such as public transport, railways, water and education, have over 50 per cent weight in core services.
    • However, prices of discretionary services such as airlines, cinema, lodging and other entertainment are rising.
    • Transportation-related services have seen the sharpest rise in the past six months due to fuel price increases.
    • Impact on the poor: For those at the bottom of the pyramid, high inflation hits harder because energy and food are a big chunk of their consumption basket.

    Growth prospects

    • S&P Global has recently cut the growth outlook for major economies for 2022 ā€” that of the US to 2.4 per cent from 3.2 per cent, for Eurozone to 2.7 per cent from 3.3 per cent earlier, and for China to 4.2 per cent from 4.9 per cent.
    • This will hurt exports which are very sensitive to global demand.

    Monetary policy actions

    • Not all aspects of supply-driven inflation can be addressed via monetary policy.
    • So the authorities are complementing monetary policy actions by using the limited fiscal space to cut duties and extend subsidies to the vulnerable.

    Conclusion

    Monetary tightening impacts growth with a lag of at least 3-4 quarters and the fact that real interest rates are negative and borrowing rates still below pre-pandemic levels, implies monetary policy is unlikely to be growth-restrictive for this year.

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  • Challenges in global growth recovery

    Context

    The global economy was well on its path to recovery until the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

    Uncertainties in global growth prospects

    • Divergent economic recoveries: Economic prospects have worsened since the Ukraine crisis, worsening the divergence between the economic recoveries of advanced economies and those of the developing ones.
    • The prevailing uncertainties in global growth prospects come in the aftermath of frequent disruptions to worldwide supply chains in the last two years.
    • Against this background, two key macroeconomic variables have a persistent effect on growth rebound.
    • 1] Price pressure: There is tenacious price pressure, leading to policy trade-offs especially in developing economies.
    • 2] Capital outflow: There have been capital outflows and a tightening of financial conditions, affecting investment and growth in the medium and long term.

    1] Price pressure

    • Global concern: In some of the advanced economies, inflation has reached its highest level in the last 40 years.
    • The major contributors to high inflation are energy and food prices.
    • A spike in oil and gas prices due to a tight fossil fuel supply and geopolitical uncertainty have led to substantial increases in energy costs worldwide.
    • In developing economies, rising food prices have had cascading effects, culminating in higher overall inflation.
    • This gets intensified if poor weather hits harvests and rising oil prices drive up the cost of producing and transporting fertilizers.
    • In developing economies, higher prices for food impacts different sections of the population differently, depending on the types of food consumed and the share of food expenditure in a householdā€™s consumption basket.
    • Persistent short supply and increases in food and fuel prices could significantly increase the risk of social unrest as the poorer sections are pushed to the edge of heightened deprivation.

    2] Capital outflow

    • Emerging markets suffered their first portfolio outflows in a year in March 2022.
    • The Institute of International Finance (IIF) says ā€œforeign net portfolio outflows for emerging markets came to $9.8 billion in March.
    • Investors have become more selective, as higher risk sensitivity mounts due to tighter monetary conditions and rising inflation.
    • Reasons for capital outflow: Interest rates tightening in the United States is associated with capital flow reversals from emerging markets.
    • Impact on developing economies: For developing economies, the result of sudden large capital outflows is currency depreciation and tighter external sector conditions, leading to growth fluctuations.

    Way forward

    • Monitor the pass-through of international prices: Though the factors contributing to high inflation (global supply shocks) are beyond the control of central banks, they need to carefully monitor the pass-through of rising international prices to domestic inflation to calibrate their responses.
    • Calibrate the pace of policy tightening: The pace of policy tightening needs to be attuned to prevailing economic situations and activity levels.
    • Communicate the importance of inflation targeting: Central banks could also signal a readiness to shift the monetary stance to maintain the credibility of their inflation-targeting frameworks by clearly communicating the importance of inflation stabilisation in their objectives and backing it with policy actions.
    • Foreign exchange interventions: As sudden capital flow reversals can threaten financial stability, foreign exchange interventions could address market imbalances.
    • Fiscal consolidation: There exists an imperative to prune expenditure and get back to the road of fiscal consolidation.
    • However, a push for consolidation should not prevent governments from prioritising spending to protect and help vulnerable populations affected by price increases and the pandemic.
    • Income support policies: In the post-pandemic global economy, there will be a likely cross-sectoral labour reallocation.
    • Ā These transitions require labour market and income support policies that are designed to provide safety nets for workers without hindering employment growth.

    Conclusion

    The message from the current phase of global growth is clear. Policymakers in the developing economies have to prepare for tighter financial conditions and spillovers from geopolitical volatility.

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  • Understanding SEBI Rules on Passive Funds

    The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) recently issued a circular on passive funds covering matters related to transparency, liquidity and operational aspects of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and index funds.

    What are Passive Funds?

    • A passive fund is an investment vehicle that tracks a market index, or a specific market segment, to determine what to invest in.
    • Unlike with an active fund, the fund manager does not decide what securities the fund takes on.
    • This normally makes passive funds cheaper to invest in than active funds, which require the fund manager to spend time researching and analysing opportunities to invest in.
    • Tracker funds, such as ETFs (exchange traded funds) and index funds fall under the banner of passive funds.

    What is a passive ELSS scheme?

    • Passive funds mimic an underlying index. By contrast active funds are actively managed by fund managers.
    • The SEBI has now introduced a passive equity-linked saving schemes (ELSS) category, which will give taxpayers another investment option to avail of tax benefits.
    • According to the circular, the passive ELSS scheme will be based on any index comprising equity shares from the top 250 companies in terms of market capitalization.
    • Beginning 1 July, a fund house will be able to either have an active ELSS scheme or a passive ELSS scheme, but not both.

    What are the norms for debt ETFs?

    • Passive debt funds are now divided into three categories:
    1. Corporate debt funds with exposure to corporate bonds
    2. G-Sec funds investing in government securities, and
    3. Hybrid funds where allocation is a combination of corporate bonds and government securities
    • Currently, debt funds in the passive category invest only in AAA-rated instruments.
    • The Sebi circular introduces norms for each debt fund category, including portfolio exposure limits to each sector, the issuer (based on rating) and group.
    • Application of these provisions should help mitigate concentration risk in debt ETFs/ index funds.

    What about tracking error?

    • As per Sebiā€™s circular, passive funds must disclose ā€˜tracking errorā€™ and ā€˜tracking differenceā€™ in their monthly fact sheets.
    • These metrics indicate how different the performance of the fund is compared to its underlying indexā€”an effort to keep investors better informed.
    • The circular specifies limits for tracking error and tracking difference, which passive funds must follow.

    What is the mandate on disclosing NAVs?

    • Because of poor liquidity for ETFs in the secondary market in India, ETF prices could differ widely from the net asset value (NAV) of the fund.
    • The NAV of the fund represents the value of the underlying asset of the ETF.
    • The Sebi circular mandates disclosure of NAV (indicative) on a continuous basis throughout the day on the stock exchange.
    • While the practice is already in existence, Sebi rules institutionalize it.
    • Checking the NAV can help one avoid making a transaction at a significant premium or discount.

    Can one execute ETF transactions directly?

    • Investors can buy or sell units of ETFs only on stock exchanges.
    • But, large buy or sell transactions can also be directly placed with the fund house.
    • Sebi now says orders greater than ā‚¹25 crore alone can be placed for redemption or subscription directly with the asset management company (AMC).

     

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  • What is a Not-for-Profit Company?

    The Enforcement Directorate (ED) has summoned Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi following a trial court order in a tax assessment case of his not-for-profit company.

    What is the case?

    • A case alleged cheating and misappropriation of funds on part of the leaders in acquiring the newspaper.
    • The alleged persons acquired it through a Section 25 company ā€” in which they have 86% stake.

    What is a Section 25 company?

    • It is defined under the Companies Act, 1956.
    • It is a not-for-profit charitable company.
    • It is formed with the sole object of promoting commerce, art, science, religion, charity, or any other useful object.
    • It intends to apply its profits, if any, or other income in promoting its objects, and to prohibit the payment of any dividend to its members
    • Section 8 of the Companies Act, 2013 includes other objects such as sports, education, research, social welfare and protection of the environment among others.

    Fiscal activities allowed

    • While it could be a public or a private company, a Section 25 company is prohibited from payment of any dividend to its members.
    • Section 25 states that by its constitution the company is required/ intends to apply its profits, if any, or other income in promoting its objects and is prohibited from paying any dividend to its members.

    What are prominent examples of such companies?

    • According to details available with the Ministry of Corporate Affairs, a large number of companies have been formed under the Section.
    • Among these are Reliance Foundation, Reliance Research Institute, Azim Premji Foundation, Coca Cola India Foundation, and Amazon Academic Foundation.

    Why are such companies formed?

    • Most people looking to form a charitable entity go for forming a company under Section 25, now Section 8, rather than a Trust structure.
    • This is because most foreign donors like to contribute to a company rather than Trust because they are more transparent and provide more disclosures.
    • If a company has to be converted into a not-for-profit company, they canā€™t be converted into a Trust, however, they can be converted into a Section 25/ Section 8 company.

     

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