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Subject: Economics

  • What is Section 32A of IBC?

    The Supreme Court has held that the bidders for a corporate debtor under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) would be immune from any investigations being conducted either by any investigating agencies.

    Q.Examine the impact of various amendments to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) and suggest further improvements in the IBC.

    Backgrounder: IBC

    • IBC was enacted on May 28, 2016, to effectively deal with insolvency and bankruptcy of corporate persons, partnership firms and individuals, in a time-bound manner.
    • It has brought about a paradigm shift in laws aimed to maximize the value of assets, providing a robust insolvency resolution framework and differentiating between impropriety and business debacle.
    • The predominant object of the Code is the resolution of the Corporate Debtor.
    • It has been amended four times to resolve problems hindering the objectives of the Code.

    What is Section 32A?

    • In cases involving property of a corporate debtor, Section 32A covers any action involving attachment, seizure, retention, or confiscation of the property of the corporate debtor as a result of such Proceedings.
    • It provides immunity to the corporate debtor and its property when there is the approval of the resolution plan resulting in the change of management of control of the corporate debtor.
    • This is subject to the successful resolution applicant being not involved in the commission of the offense.

    What were the challenges?

    • Since the IBC came into being in 2016, the implementation of the resolution plan of several big cases has been delayed because of various challenges mounted by its own agencies and regulators.
    • For example, a debt-laden company, admitted into insolvency in 2017, owes more than Rs 47,000 crore to banks and other financial institutions.
    • After a prolonged bidding battle, another won the rights to take over it with a bid of Rs 19,700 crore.
    • However, before it could move to take over, the ED/SEBI swooped in, and attached assets worth Rs 4,000 crore citing alleged fraud in a bank loan under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA).

    Observations made by the SC

    • In its judgment, the apex court upheld the validity of Section 32.
    • It said it was important for the IBC to attract bidders who would offer reasonable and fair value for the corporate debtor to ensure the timely completion of the corporate insolvency resolution process (CIRP).
    • Such bidders, however, must also be granted protection from any misdeeds of the past since they had nothing to do with it.
    • Such protection, the court said, must also extend to the assets of a corporate debtor which will help banks clean up their books of bad loans.
    • The apex court has, however, also said that such immunity would be applicable only if there are an approved resolution plan and a change in the management control of the corporate debtor.

    Significance of SC’s intervention

    • With the Supreme Court upholding the validity of Section 32 A will give confidence to other bidders to proceed with confidence while bidding on such disputed companies and their assets.

    Must read

    [Burning Issue] Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code

  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)

    State Bank of India (SBI) has executed two inter-bank short term money market deals with pricing linked to SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate).

    Try this PYQ:

    Q.The money multiplier in an economy increases with which one of the following?

    (a) Increase in the cash reserve ratio

    (b) Increase in the banking habit of the population

    (c) Increase in the statutory liquidity ratio

    (d) Increase in the population of the country

    What is SOFR?

    • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a secured interbank overnight interest rate.
    • It is a replacement for USD LIBOR (London Inter-bank Offered Rate) that may be phased out end-2021.
    • The overnight rate is generally the interest rate that large banks use to borrow and lend from one another in the overnight market.

    Why SOFR?

    • Global regulators decided to move away from the Libor, a vital part of the financial system after it was revealed in 2012 that banks around the world manipulated it.
    • It also didn’t help that volume underlying the benchmark dried up.
    • U.K regulators set the deadline at 2021 for financial firms and investors to transition away from the Libor.

  • It’s better to stop the creation of bad debt than set up a bad bank

    The article argues that instead of creating the Bad Bank, several steps taken by the government and the bank regulator could deal with the problem of NPAs and also improve the performance of the banks.

    Challenge of NPA: Is Bad Bank and answer to it?

    • Recently, RBI governor said that the RBI was open to considering setting up of a “bad bank”.
    • India’s economic growth, unless pandemic risks resurface, should be good enough to largely take care of its non-performing assets (NPAs) in the coming years.
    • It was the high economic and credit growth of the 2003-08 period that whittled down the NPA ratio.
    • The provision coverage ratio at banks had gone up from 42% in 2016 to 72.4% in September 2020, and that net NPAs were down to 2.8% in March 2020.
    • The bad loan legacy is almost done with.
    • Consequently, the bad bank is a right idea at the wrong time.

    Steps the government and RBI should take

    1) Resume the operation of IBC

    • The government should reinstate the operation of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC).
    • The code had improved the recovery rate from NPAs in the banking system.
    •  There is a need to create disincentives for deliberate delaying tactics, so that the original timeline of 270 days is honoured more in its observance than in breach.

    2) Recapitalisation of banks

    • The government should provide more than adequate capital to the strong banks it owns, and adequate capital to the not-so-strong ones, with well-defined performance criteria for them to receive more.
    • If they don’t deliver, then the government should consolidate them or begin diluting its stake below 51% in such banks.

    3) Level playing field improvement in compliance culture

    • The government should level the regulatory playing field between private-sector and government-owned banks.
    • The risk management and compliance culture in public-sector banks must improve.
    • However,  public sector banks should not be subject to excessive oversight by government investigative and audit agencies.

    4) Plug the sources of NPAs through policy changes

    • More than these, there are two other important things that constitute the fountainheads of NPAs.
    • The government should evolve a framework for passing on explicit development goals of the state for banks to achieve through the credit mechanism.
    • The government should provide for them in the budget and compensate banks rather than direct credit by diktat.
    • The cost of directed lending is not just the creation of NPAs, but morale and market-value erosion as well.
    • In any case, recapitalization needs mean that the fiscal costs are not avoided. It is self-defeating.
    • Then, governments (Union and states) should plug the other underlying sources of NPAs.
    • Among things, they should ensure economic pricing of utilities, honour power purchase contracts and raw material purchase agreements, pay arrears to private counterparties, and stop being reflexive litigants.

    Consider the question ” What is the Bad Bank? Do you agree with the view that India needs Bad Bank?”

    Conclusion

    The above measures would greatly help the country achieve high growth and sustain it. Setting up a bad bank may be unnecessary.

    Back2Basics: Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR)

    • Banks usually set aside a portion of their profits as a provision against bad loans.
    • Provisioning Coverage Ratio (PCR) is essentially the ratio of provisioning to gross non-performing assets (NPA) and indicates the extent of funds a bank has kept aside to cover loan losses.
    • A high PCR ratio (ideally above 70%) means most asset quality issues have been taken care of and the bank is not vulnerable.

  • Good economics must also make good politics

    The article suggests the reforms that should be included in the next budget to boost the Indian economy.

    Need for further reforms

    • Government has leveraged the Covid-19 slowdown as an opportunity for introducing transformative reforms.
    • The recently introduced reforms include liberalising agricultural markets, diluting the onslaught of labour laws, credit guarantees for SME loans, and a liberal PLI to stimulate manufacturing.
    • These reforms have created a cautious optimism among investors worldwide awaiting the forthcoming Budget.
    • India’s reforms require further acceleration, and a consensus that good economics makes good politics.

    Reforms required to attract investment

    • Cost of acquiring land has increased substantially, which needs to be reduced.
    • The government must categorise 44 central laws into compensation, social security, industrial relations, and health and safety—and draft a unified model labour law to replace archaic laws for adoption by states.
    • India’s trade-to-GDP ratio must improve.
    • Having turned away from the RCEP, India needs to conclude trade agreements with the UK and other major economies. Announcing such intent would be welcome.
    • Effective corporate tax rate for domestic companies is 25.17%, while that for foreign firms is 43.68%, India should maintain tax parity across domestic and foreign companies.
    • With such parity, India will enhance investment attractiveness.
    • In view of the recent international arbitration rulings, India should discontinue retrospective taxation.
    • Defence FDI could be raised from 74% to 100% under automatic route.
    • The rationale to maintain FDI in the insurance sector at 49% now holds limited logic, India could increase it to a majority stake or even 100%.
    • Bottled-in-origin and bulk spirits attract a high basic customs duty (150%), deterring companies eyeing the Indian market, and depriving India of the corresponding FDI.
    • Phased reduction of duty on these products to 75% and finally to 30% is advisable.

    Areas that need increased spending

    • Spending on public healthcare needs to rise from 1.3% to 3% of GDP with Covid-19 exposing glaring inadequacies.
    • Revising the National List of Essential Medicines to exempt inexpensively-priced medicines from price controls would help investments in innovation and API manufacturing.
    • If the New Education Policy is to be implemented properly, public spend on education and skill development must rise from 3% to 4.5% of GDP.
    • The government must raise defence allocations to over 2.5% of GDP given India’s new threat perceptions and increase capital component of total fiscal allocations for defence could be increased from 34% to 40%.

    Other measures to boost the economy

    • Developing data adequacy agreements with the UK and other key countries would facilitate cross-border movement of personal data based on a mutual adequacy basis.
    • The online gaming industry should be supported by a model law, tax regime and self-regulation so that the government accrues tax revenues estimated at Rs 15,000 crore.
    • Most countries tax domestic corporate dividends at lower rates and, therefore, FPIs’ dividend income should be taxed at 10%.
    • Foreign banks must be brought at par with Indian banks with 8.5% deduction for NPA provisioning.
    • Excluding financial services from the e-commerce equalisation levy would be appropriate.
    • PSU disinvestments have slowed, and the Budget needs to announce measures for their acceleration as a privatisation push would be transformative for India in the long run.

    Consider the question”What are the hurdles in making India the more attractive to the investors? Discuss the measures to make India more attractive for investors.” 

    Conclusion

    As developed countries contemplate relocating their manufacturing supply chains to destinations besides China, a progressive Budget would send positive signals to overseas investors and would propel India’s rightful ambition to be the world’s next manufacturing workshop, in consonance with the Atmanirbhar Bharat vision.

    Source:

    https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/union-budget-fy22-good-economics-must-make-good-politics/2173553/

  • Issues with treating mineral sale proceeds as revenue or income

    The rate at which we are extracting mineral and spending the proceeds from it without consideration for the future generation needs a rethink. The article deals with this issue.

    The principle of Intergenerational Equity

    • We cannot compromise the ability of future generations to meet their needs, and this is reflected in the aim for the sustainable economy.
    • The principle of Intergenerational Equity would make it imperative for us to ensure future generations inherit at least as much as we did.
    • If we are successful in abiding by intergenerational equity, our children will be at least as well off as we are.

    Issues with our mineral policy

    • India’s National Mineral Policy 2019 states: “natural resources, including minerals, are a shared inheritance where the state is the trustee on behalf of the people to ensure that future generations receive the benefit of inheritance.”
    • The extraction of oil, gas, and minerals is effectively the sale of this inheritance.
    • Unfortunately, governments everywhere treat the mineral sale proceeds as revenue or income which is basically a sale of inherited wealth.
    • This results in governments selling minerals at prices significantly lower than what they are worth, driven by lobbying, political donations, and corruption.

    Error in accounting

    • Proceeds received by the government are treated as “revenue” and spent.
    • This is just not sustainable.
    • There is growing empirical evidence of large losses in mining from around the world.
    • There is also growing evidence from the International Monetary Fund that many governments of resource-rich nations face declining public sector net worth, i.e., their governments are becoming poorer.
    • Due to the high profits involved, the extractors are keen to extract as quickly as possible and move on.
    • More mining would make a bad situation significantly worse.
    • The Government Accounting Standards Advisory Board needs to correct this error in the standards for public sector accounting and reporting for mineral wealth.

    Way forward

    • If we extract and sell our mineral wealth, the explicit objective must be to achieve zero loss in value; the state as trustee must capture the full economic rent.
    • Any loss is a loss to all of us and our future generations, and makes some rich; that is patently unfair.
    • India’s National Mineral Policy 2019 says: “State Governments will endeavor to ensure that the full value of the extracted minerals is received by the State.”
    • Like Norway, the entire mineral sale proceeds must be saved in a Future Generations Fund.
    • The Future Generations Fund could be passively invested through the National Pension Scheme framework.
    • The real income of a fund of this nature may be distributed only as a citizens’ dividend, equally to all as owners.
    • For the Indian economy, this is sustainable — capital has been maintained; the savings rate would rise, making available more long-term domestic capital; it diversifies risk while likely improving returns.

    Consider the question “What are the issues with our mining policies? Suggest the changes to make it more sustainable.”

    Conclusion

    Through these changes, let us be the generation that changes the course of history for the better, not the one that consumed the planet.

  • Balance sheet of a Bad Bank

    The idea of setting up a bad bank to resolve the growing problem of non-performing assets (NPAs), or loans on which borrowers have defaulted, is back on the table.

    Q.What is Bad Bank? Discuss how it is different from an Asset Reconstruction Company (ARC)?

    Why in news?

    • Commercial banks are set to witness a spike in NPAs, or bad loans, in the wake of the contraction in the economy as a result of the pandemic.
    • Hence the RBI recently agreed to look at the proposal for the creation of a bad bank.
    • This is in the response to a six-month moratorium it has announced to tackle the economic slowdown.

    What is a Bad Bank?

    • A bad bank conveys the impression that it will function as a bank but has bad assets to start with.
    • Technically, it is an asset reconstruction company (ARC) or an asset management company that takes over the bad loans of commercial banks, manages them and finally recovers the money over a period of time.
    • Such bank is not involved in lending and taking deposits, but helps commercial banks clean up their balance sheets and resolve bad loans.
    • The takeover of bad loans is normally below the book value of the loan and the bad bank tries to recover as much as possible subsequently.

    Global examples of Bad Bank

    • US-based BNY Mellon Bank created the first bad bank in 1988, after which the concept has been implemented in other countries including Sweden, Finland, France and Germany.
    • However, resolution agencies or ARCs set up as banks, which originate or guarantee to lend, have ended up turning into reckless lenders in some countries.

    Do we need a bad bank?

    • The idea gained currency during Rajan’s tenure as RBI Governor.
    • The RBI had then initiated an asset quality review (AQR) of banks and found that several banks had suppressed or hidden bad loans to show a healthy balance sheet.
    • However, the idea remained on paper amid lack of consensus on the efficacy of such an institution.
    • ARCs have not made any impact in resolving bad loans due to many procedural issues.

    What is the stand of the RBI and government?

    • While the RBI did not show much enthusiasm about a bad bank all these years, there are signs that it can look at the idea now.
    • Experts, however, argue that it would be better to limit the objective of these asset management companies to the orderly resolution of stressed assets, followed by a graceful exit.

    Key suggestions

    Former RBI Dy. Governor Acharya suggested two models to solve the problem of stressed assets.

    1. The first is a private asset management company (PAMC), which is said to be suitable for stressed sectors where the assets are likely to have an economic value in the short run, with moderate levels of debt forgiveness.
    2. The second model is the National Asset Management Company (NAMC), which would be necessary for sectors where the problem is not just one of excess capacity but possibly also of economically unviable assets in the short to medium terms.

    Good about the bad banks

    • The problem of NPAs continues in the banking sector, especially among the weaker banks.
    • The bad bank concept is in some ways similar to an ARC but is funded by the government initially, with banks and other investors co-investing in due course.
    • The presence of the government is seen as a means to speed up the clean-up process.
    • Many other countries had set up institutional mechanisms such as the Troubled Asset Relief Programme (TARP) in the US to deal with a problem of stress in the financial system.

    Pandemic and the NPAs

    • Bad loans in the system are expected to balloon in the wake of contraction in the economy and the problems being faced by many sectors.
    • The RBI noted in its recent Financial Stability Report that the gross NPAs of the banking sector is expected to shoot up to 13.5% of advances by September 2021, from 7.5% in September 2020.
    • The report warned that if the macroeconomic environment worsens into a severe stress scenario, the ratio may escalate to 14.8%.

  • Why Financial boom at a time of economic stagnation?

    Divergence in the financial sector and the overall economy

    • India’s major secondary stock market, the Sensex has been found tracking an upward path, from 40,817 on January 8, 2020, to 48,569 a year later, on January 8, 2021.
    • The trend indicates that GDP in India has been subdued while the financial sector has continued moving up.
    • This paradox has been found to be replicated in other developing as well as advanced economies.
    • These include the major emerging economies such as Brazil and Argentina along with advanced economies such as the United States and the United Kingdom.
    •  It remains an open question whether this paradox can sustain itself.
    • If this cannot sustain, it poses risk for those having large exposures in the financial market and also for the economy as a whole.

    Let’s understand the financial flows beyond the real economy

    • Finance as above, having no counterpart in the productive sector, was identified, first by Karl Marx, as fictitious capital.
    • Earnings from fictitious capital include interests, dividends, and capital gains as well as profits on derivatives.
    • All the above come in the category of unearned or rentier capital.
    • Financial assets, sold with capital gains at higher prices, are met with a rising rather than with the usual declines in demand.
    • Evidently, possibilities of accumulating assets turn even brighter with the high-value assets (used as collaterals), fetching credit for further business.
    • As for the stock prices, which reflect the stream of dividends over time discounted by interest rates, lower rates can help pitch stock prices higher.
    • Cuts in interest rates are often preferred as tools under mainstream prescriptions limiting expansionary policies, which evidently helps stock prices.
    • A journey as above for the financial circuit continues, is subject to market confidence.

    Role of state

    • To look at how finance has attained its present status we need to look at the evolving alliances between finance and the ruling state.
    • The path started with the financial deregulation in the late-1990s when banks were allowed to profit by dealing with securities and with the emergence of hedging devices such as futures and options in the market.
    • It also reflects the rise of non-bank financial institutions as well as shadow banks operating beyond regulations even at cost for the regular banks which had large exposures to the non-banks.
    • The state’s close proximity to big finance is also evident in the revamping of downhill finance, even with bailouts in the name of restoring financial stability.
    • It speaks even more of the pro-finance stance of the government in the neglect of upswings in the financial sector despite the continuing downslides in the real economy.

    Consider the question “What explains the apparent paradox in the India economy with evident divergence in its booming financial sector and subdued economy. What are the risks involved in such situations? Suggest the measures to deal with such situations.

    Conclusion

    Catastrophes, that comes with the sudden collapse of confidence in the financial sector, highlight the need for alternative policies on the part of the state as well as a bit of caution on part of individual investors — in a bid to usher in a sustainable and equitable path of growth for the economy as a whole.

     

  • Changes needed in India’s agri-food policy

    Basic parameters to design optimal agri-food policy

    • UN population projections (2019) indicate that India is likely to be the most populous country by 2027.
    • By 2030, the country is likely to have almost 600 million people living in urban areas, who would need safe food.
    • Indian agriculture has an average holding size of 1.08 hectares (2015-16 data) while engaging 42 percent of the country’s workforce.
    • Cultivable land and water for agriculture are limited and already under severe pressure.

    What should be the basic features of agri-policy

    • 1) It should be able to produce enough food, feed, and fibre for its large population.
    • 2) It should do so in a manner that protects the environment — soil, water, air, and biodiversity and achieves higher production with global competitiveness.
    • 3) It should enable seamless movement of food, keeping marketing costs low, save on food losses in supply chains and provide safe and fresh food to consumers.
    • 4) Consumers should get safe and nutritious food at affordable prices.

    Need to change from sub-optimal to optimal policies

    • Free electricity and highly subsidized fertilizers, especially urea, are damaging groundwater levels, especially in the Green Revolution states.
    • Sugar and wheat are being produced at prices higher than global prices, and these crops can’t be exported unless they are heavily subsidized.
    • Excessive stocks of wheat and rice with the Food Corporation of India (FCI) are putting pressure on the agency’s finances.
    • Rice remains globally competitive, but it should be remembered that in exporting rice we are also exporting massive amounts of precious water — almost 25-30 billion cubic meters, annually.
    • This is the water that is pumped for rice cultivation, enabled by the subsidized power supply.
    • In the marketing segment also, for most of our agri-commodities, our costs remain high compared to several other developing countries due to poor logistics, low investments in supply lines, and high margins of intermediaries.
    • All these are signs of sub-optimal agri-food policies.

    Policy changes required: On the production level

    • Green Revolution states of Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh require crop diversification.
    • This can be done by switching from the highly subsidized input price policy (power, water, fertilizers) and MSP/FRP policy for paddy, wheat, and sugarcane, to more income support policies linked to saving water, soil, and air quality.
    • The Agri-marketing segment is also in the need of reforms especially with respect to bringing about efficiency in agri-marketing and lowering transaction costs.
    • It is believed that developing countries should invest at least one percent of their agri-GDP in agri-R&D and extension.
    • India invests about half.
    • It needs to double with commensurate accountability of R&D organizations, especially the ICAR and state agriculture universities to deliver.

    Policy changes required: On the consumption level

    • The biggest challenge for the next 10 years is that of malnutrition, especially amongst children.
    • The public distribution of food, through PDS, that relies on rice and wheat, and that too at more than 90 percent subsidy over costs of procurement, stocking, and distribution, is not helping much.
    • It is increasing the finances of FCI, whose borrowings have touched Rs 3 lakh crore.
    • To address that, beneficiaries of subsidized rice and wheat need to be given a choice to opt for cash equivalent to MSP plus 25 percent.
    • The FCI adds about 40 percent cost over the MSP while procuring, storing, and distributing food.
    • This cash option will save some money and also lead to supplies of more diversified and nutritious food to the beneficiaries.

    Consider the question “What are the issues with India’s agri-food policies? Suggest the changes in agri-food policies so as to make them optimal.

    Conclusion

    What we need is to set agri-food policies on a demand-driven approach, protecting sustainability and efficiency in production and marketing, and giving consumers more choices for nutritious food at affordable prices.

  • Bank Investment Company (BIC)

    Banks, especially the Public Sector Banks have to play an important role in the pandemic afflicted economy. With that aim, the government has been envisaging the Bank Investment Company (BIC) for the improvement of PSB governance. The article discusses the issues with the BIC.

    Background of the BIC

    • Recent reports suggest that the upcoming budget may include proposals for a Bank Investment Company (BIC), anchoring the government’s shareholding in its banks.
    • The BIC was proposed by the P J Nayak Committee constituted by the RBI in 2014 to examine governance at public and private sector banks.
    • The committee had offered two options — privatisation or a complete overhaul of bank governance.
    • The overhaul of bank governance is envisaged in the form of a gradual disassociation of the government from the operations, management and governance of PSBs.
    • The BIC is a welcome step in as much as it signals the government’s intent to pursue reforms to improve the governance and performance of PSBs.

    Concerns with the BIC

    • The ownership and governance of the BIC itself will be crucial.
    • BIC will need to be allowed to garner the requisite talent and expertise and operate with freedom.
    • In the absence of this, it would merely add another layer while preserving the status quo.
    • The less than encouraging experience of the Banks Board Bureau (BBB) that was to precede the BIC is instructive.

    Why BBB failed to achieve its objectives

    • The BBB was set up in 2016 to advise on the selection and appointment of senior board members and management.
    • However, in practice, the BBB’s advice has not always been heeded to, and appointments have not always been made on time.
    • The BBB, as originally conceived, was to consist of three senior bankers.
    • However, it was expanded to include representatives from the RBI and the government.
    • The BBB was also originally envisaged by the committee as a temporary arrangement.
    • However, no further steps have been forthcoming after its establishment.

    Way forward for BIC

    • The government would need to ensure the necessary freedom for the BIC to operate while circumscribing its own role.
    • The ultimate success of these reforms will depend on how the government disassociates itself and empowers the BIC.
    • The objectives of the BIC would have to be clearly defined too.
    • If capital raising is one of the goals, the structure of a holding company — with a portfolio of comparatively better performing and non-performing banks — to attract investments must be assessed.
    • In this regard, the RBI has reportedly, in the past, expressed reservations on the BIC structure being a potential challenge for investors to assess the relative risks, returns and performance of the banks.
    • This raises the question of whether privatisation would not be a better alternative, particularly as the transition of the government from an owner to a pure financial investor in its banks is likely to take time.

    Conclusion

    Given these concerns, privatisation may be a better alternative. The budget could signal this intent by announcing the first step — the repeal of the Bank Nationalisation Acts and the State Bank of India Act.

  • India’s trade with China falls at five-year low

    India’s trade with China last year fell to the lowest since 2017, with the trade imbalance declining to a five-year low on the back of a slump in India’s imports from China.

    Try this PYQ:

    Q.Among the following, which one is the largest exporter of rice in the world in the last five years? (CSP 2019)

    (a) China

    (b) India

    (c) Myanmar

    (d) Vietnam

    India-China Trade

    • Two-way trade in 2020 reached $87.6 billion, down by 5.6%, according to new figures from China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC).
    • India’s imports from China accounted for $66.7 billion, declining by 10.8% year-on-year and the lowest figure since 2016.
    • It, however, rose to the highest figure on record, for the first time crossing the $20 billion-mark and growing 16% last year to $20.86 billion.

    What constitutes India’s import from China?

    • While there was no immediate break-up of the data in 2020, India’s biggest import in 2019 was electrical machinery and equipment, worth $20.17 billion.
    • Other major imports in 2019 were organic chemicals ($8.39 billion) and fertilizers ($1.67 billion), while India’s top exports were iron ore, organic chemicals, cotton and unfinished diamonds.

    India’s exports to China

    • The past 12 months saw a surge in demand for iron ore in China with a slew of new infrastructure projects aimed at reviving growth after the COVID-19 slump.
    • China’s total iron ore imports were up 9.5 per cent in 2020.

    A friction-induced low

    • The trade deficit, a source of friction between India and China, declined to a five year-low of $45.8 billion, the lowest since 2015.
    • Whether 2020 is an exception or marks a turn away from the recent pattern of India’s trade with China remains to be seen.
    • While India’s imports from China declined, so did India’s imports overall with a slump in domestic demand last year.
    • There is, as yet, no evidence to suggest India has replaced its import dependence on China by either sourcing those goods elsewhere or manufacturing them at home.