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Subject: Economics

  • Reforming Digital policy

    Pandemic has been ravaging the economies across the globe but digital services have escaped the onslaught and are thriving. For India, this could be an opportunity. This article highlights the importance of the sector and how some proposed measures could have an adverse impact on the sector.

    Emerging trends in economies

    • Economic growth has dropped, and the competition for foreign investment is intensifying.
    • There are national campaigns to shift supply chains and the urgent necessity to reverse recessionary trends.
    • The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development just released its latest World Investment Report.
    • The report projected that FDI to developing Asian economies could drop by as much as 45%.

    Why digital services would beat this trend

    • Digital services have become critical to every 21st century economy.
    • Digital services are filling gaps when national or global emergencies interrupt more traditional modes of commerce.
    • It enables access to and delivery of a wide array of products across multiple sectors.

    How it matters for India

    • India offers undeniable potential for innovative homegrown start-ups.
    • India has a huge and increasingly digitised population.
    • Indian government policies will be key determinants in how quickly and at what level the economy attracts new investment.
    • Fostering innovation, and expanding its exporting prowess will also matter.

    Three pending measure

    • Three pending reform measures under consideration are-
    • 1) Personal Data Protection Bill (PDPB).
    • 2) The e-commerce policy.
    • 3) The Information Technology Act Amendments.

    Issues with these measures

    • These regulatory reforms seem to emphasise a focus on protecting the domestic market for domestic companies.
    • It also prioritises government access to data.
    • It may be difficult to reconcile these approaches with India’s strong interest in i) promoting data privacy ii) protecting its democratic institutions iii) encouraging FDI and India’s position as a global leader in information technology.

    India-US trade relationship issue

    • The India-U.S. trade relationship is uncertain.
    • The bilateral relationship is an important factor for greater trade and investment in digital services.
    • India and the U.S. are yet to conclude negotiation on a bilateral trade agreement that could address some digital services issues.
    • The U.S. just initiated a “Section 301” review.
    • The review seeks whether digital services taxes in 10 countries constitute “unfair” trade measures, including India’s equalisation levy.

    Consider the question “Digital services have become critical to every 21st-century economy and more so for Indian economy. In light, highlight the salience of digital services for the Indian economy and what are the issues that could affect the growth trajectory of the sector in India?”

    Conclusion

    Post-COVID-19 international cooperation and approaches to good governance in the digital sphere will be top-priority initiatives. The steps India takes now could well establish itself as a true global leader.

  • How much forex reserve is too much

    India’s foreign exchange reserves touched an unprecedented level. Being reserves, the reserves also represent the lost opportunity. This article examines the reasons for and utility of maintaining huge reserves.

    Reasons for surge in the forex reserves

    • The recent forex reserves surge was a result of two things:
    • 1) Foreign institutional investors reinvested in the Indian market in May-June after they exited their positions in panic in March.
    • 2) A global fall in fuel prices has reduced India’s oil import bill, allowing it to save up forex reserves.

    But why does India keeps huge forex reserves- 3 possibilities

    • Sufficiency of forex reserves is sometimes measured on how many months’ worth of imports a country can afford.
    • While six months is considered sufficient.
    • The RBI in December 2019 said it had enough to sustain for 10 months, the forex reserves were then $0.4 trillion.
    • Today, the cover is 12 months!
    • This is despite having a sufficient credit line from the IMF, should there be a credit shock.
    • So, there are 3 possibilities for why government maintains such huge reserves.
    • 1) Excess forex reserves are likely the government’s contingency fund, in case the economy suddenly topples.
    • The pandemic has increased the government’s insecurity.
    • 2) Another possibility is that the government is accumulating these reserves as “Plan-B” savings should its strategic disinvestment plans fail.
    • 3) Forex reserves are also likely a way for India now to maintain its global rating.
    • The fundamental use of India’s foreign exchange should be to ensure the Rupee (INR) stability.

    Stability of Rupee

    •  Despite steadily rising reserves, INR fluctuated between 77 and 75 against the US dollar in the last two months.
    • INR has become one of Asia’s worst currencies.
    • The RBI may allow it to devalue further to support its balance sheet,
    • Devaluation would enable it to transfer a big chunk of its realised profits as dividend to the starving government.

    Lost opportunity

    • It is understandable for oil-rich countries to maintain high forex reserves.
    • A single oil trade hiccup can derail their economy.
    • Economists have theorised that holding high forex reserves is unnecessary.
    • In fact, not using them to finance mega infrastructure projects are lost opportunities.
    • And yet the Indian government has held these reserves in liquid, possibly for its feared D-day.

    Perils of using forex reserves as emergency funds

    •  Over-reliance on these floating funds to stimulate the economy might be poorly informed.
    • The potential of these funds to switch direction [i.e. they could exit as fast] should not be underestimated.
    • In March alone, foreign institutional investments in India fell by Rs 65,000 crore.
    • India’s foreign exchange reserves registered this impact.
    • Reversing the dip, investments went up in May and now in June with some big corporate deals.
    • If the government intends to use forex reserves as an emergency fund, it should ensure that they do not shrink just when they are most needed.

    Consider the question “India’s foreign exchange reserves touched new height recently. This also giver rise to the argument of lost opportunity. In light of this discuss the utility of maintaining foreign exchange reserves and issue of optimum level of foreign exchange reserves.”

    Conclusion

    Maintaining high foreign exchange reserves definitely entails cost. The cost-benefit analysis and the lost opportunity must be the basis for deciding the level of the reserves.

  • Stamp Duty on Mutual Fund Purchases

    The Amendments in the Indian Stamp Act, 1899 has been brought through Finance Act 2019 for Rationalized Collection Mechanism of Stamp Duty across India with respect to Securities Market Instruments.

    Up till now, we knew that stamp duties are levied on property transactions, registrations etc. With the Finance Act 2019, the stamp duties are also levied on Mutual Funds.

    What is Stamp Duty?

    • Stamp duty is a legal tax payable in full and acts as evidence for any sale or purchase of a property. It is payable under Section 3 of the Indian Stamp Act, 1899.
    • The levy of stamp duty is a state subject and thus the rates of stamp duty vary from state to state.
    • The Centre levies stamp duty on specified instruments and also fixes the rates for these instruments.
    • It is usually paid by the buyer with regardless of agreement and in case of property exchange, both seller and the buyer has to share the stamp duty equally.
    • A stamp duty paid instrument/document is considered a proper and legal instrument/document and has evidentiary value and is admitted as evidence in courts.

    What is the move?

    • Beginning July 1, all shares and mutual fund purchases will attract a stamp duty of 0.005 per cent and any transfer of security will attract a stamp duty of 0.015 per cent.
    • The government had introduced changes to the Stamp duty Act last year by introducing a uniform rate of stamp duty on the trading of shares and commodities.
    • All categories of mutual funds (except for ETFs) will attract stamp duty for the first time.
    • Shares purchased by individuals at stock exchanges were charged stamp duty at different rates by respective states.

    Where all will it be applicable?

    • The stamp duty will be applicable on all transactions, including shares, debt instruments, commodities and all categories of mutual fund schemes.
    • As for mutual funds, it will be applicable on all fresh purchases, including the fresh monthly purchases in previously registered Systematic Investment Plans.
    • It will also be applicable if investors switch from one scheme to another and also in case of dividend reinvestment transactions.
    • Transfers of units from one Demat account to another, including market/off-market transfers, will also attract stamp duty.

    How does it impact the investor?

    • The impact on long-term investments by a retail investor is nominal.
    • Since the stamp duty will be charged a one-time charge, if an investor invests Rs 1 lakh in a mutual fund scheme or in stock and holds it for two years, he will have to pay a duty of only Rs 5.
    • In fact, it will be marginally lower as the stamp duty is applicable on the net investment value i.e gross investment amount less than any other deduction like transaction charge.
    • There is no duty at the time of redemption.

    What about big investors?

    • The impact is higher for investors with short-term investment horizons such as banks and corporates who invest in liquid and overnight schemes of mutual funds.

    How much revenue can it generate for the government?

    • In the financial year 2019-20, the mutual fund industry mobilized aggregate funds of over Rs 188 lakh crore.
    • A high portion of that was in overnight funds or liquid funds.
    • A 0.005 per cent stamp duty on this amount works out to Rs 940 crore.
    • If the industry continues to mobilise funds to the tune of Rs 190 lakh crore or higher, it will generate revenues of nearly Rs 1,000 crore for the government from mutual fund transactions itself.

    Back2Basics: Mutual Funds

    • MF is a trust that collects money from a number of investors who share a common investment objective.
    • Then, it invests the money in equities, bonds, money market instruments and/or other securities.
    • Each investor owns units, which represent a portion of the holdings of the fund.
    • The income/gains generated from this collective investment are distributed proportionately amongst the investors after deducting certain expenses, by calculating a scheme’s “Net Asset Value or NAV.
    • It is one of the most viable investment options for the common man as it offers an opportunity to invest in a diversified, professionally managed basket of securities at a relatively low cost.
    • All funds carry some level of risk. With mutual funds, one may lose some or all of the money invested because the securities held by a fund can go down in value.

  • Why spending on infrastructure matters

    Spending on infrastructure can help kickstart the economy. This article highlights the importance of spending on infrastructure and suggests ways to find resources.

    Gloomy prospects for Indian economy

    • The IMF estimates the global economy to contract by -4.9 per cent this year.
    • It could still contract should the virus not recede in the latter half of 2020.
    • As for the Indian economy, growth has been decelerating for the past eight quarters.
    • Indications by the RBI suggest that growth is contracting for the first time in four decades.
    •  We must address the elephant in the room — the need to further aid a demand recovery as the economy begins to reopen.

    Components of Indias growth

    • Growth in the Indian economy has been dominated by the following components respectively-
    • 1) Consumption.
    • 2) It is followed by investments.
    • 3) Government expenditure.
    • 4) Net exports.
    • However, consumption and investment demand have been subdued for the past few quarters, dragging down overall growth.
    • Keynesian theory suggests that for aggregate demand to increase, at least one of the components of GDP needs to expand.

    Declining consumption demand

    • These two components were perhaps casualties of a sharp deceleration in credit supply.
    •  The IL&FS debacle in September 2018 only made matters worse.
    • The NBFC sector, suffered from funding crunches leading to a further squeeze in credit supply.
    • Freeze in credit supply impacted consumption demand.
    • This deceleration is likely to exacerbate going forward.

    Declining rate of investment

    • Broad-based utilisation levels, as represented by the RBI, dropped to 68.6 per cent in Q3FY20.
    • This is well below the 75 per cent benchmark for new capacity addition, implying suboptimal levels of fresh investments.
    • A higher rate of investments is essential for sustainable economic growth.
    • The deteriorating economic scenario and increasing levels of debt with rating downgrades for industries are likely to aggravate existing problems.

    Importance of expenditure on spending on infrastructure

    • Government expenditure is the only exogenously determined element in a Keynesian framework.
    • The positive push required to aid a demand recovery has to come through the government.
    • However, with sparse resources that India has, we must deploy funds that yield a higher return.
    • One key area that can provide the necessary support is infrastructure investment.
    • A study by S&P Global estimates 1 per cent of GDP spend on infrastructure can boost real growth by 2 per cent while creating 1.3 million direct jobs.
    • Historically, countries have used infrastructure to provide counter-cyclical support to the economy.
    • Notably, infrastructure has strong links to growth and with both supply and demand-side features that help generate employment and long-term assets.
    • India already has an upper hand here.
    • Front-loading key projects with greater visibility from the recently announced National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) could aid in a quicker recovery.

    Special infrastructure bond

    •  India already has several institutions for infrastructure development purposes from the likes of IIFCL, IRFC to more recently NIIF.
    • Taking a cue from China, floating special infrastructure bonds through this organisation to accelerate the funding of the NIP could aid a speedier recovery.
    • Further, taking a page from the New Deal and its Reconstruction Finance Corporation, this institution’s ability for greater leverage can be used to make amends to our credit channels.
    • This ability could also be used for the development of state government and urban local body bond markets.
    • This could help businesses and bankers overcome risk aversion and bring back trust in the system while financing new paths for growth.

    Consider the question “Highlight the role of consumption and investment as the two largest contributors to India’s growth and explain how spending on the infrastructure could help revive the economy hit hard by the pandemic”

    Conclusion

    The exogenous component in the form of spending by the government could step-in in a greater way, perhaps because, it is the only one that can.

  • PM Formalization of Micro Food Processing Enterprises (PM FME) Scheme

    The Ministry for Food Processing Industries (MoFPI) has launched the PM Formalization of Micro Food Processing Enterprises (PM FME) as a part of “Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan”.

    Practice question for mains:

    Q.What is the PM FME Scheme? Discuss its potential to neutralize various challenges faced by India’s unorganized food industries.

    PM FME Scheme

    • It aims to provide financial, technical and business support for upgradation of existing micro food processing enterprises.
    • It is a centrally sponsored scheme to be implemented over a period of five years from 2020-21 to 2024-25 with an outlay of Rs 10,000 crore.
    • The expenditure under the scheme would to be shared in 60:40 ratios between Central and State Governments, in 90:10 ratios with NE and the Himalayan States, 60:40 ratio with UTs with the legislature and 100% by Centre for other UTs.

    Features of the scheme

    • The Scheme adopts One District One Product (ODODP) approach to reap the benefit of scale in terms of procurement of inputs, availing common services and marketing of products.
    • The States would identify food product for a district keeping in view the existing clusters and availability of raw material.
    • The ODOP product could be a perishable produce based product or cereal-based products or a food product widely produced in a district and their allied sectors.
    • An illustrative list of such products includes mango, potato, litchi, tomato, tapioca, kinnu, bhujia, petha, papad, pickle, millet-based products, fisheries, poultry, meat as well as animal feed among others.
    • The Scheme also place focus on waste to wealth products, minor forest products and Aspirational Districts.

    Credit facility provided

    • Existing Individual micro food processing units desirous of upgradation of their unit can avail credit-linked capital subsidy @35% of the eligible project cost with a maximum ceiling of Rs.10 lakh per unit.
    • Seed capital @ Rs. 40,000/- per SHG member would be provided for working capital and purchase of small tools.
    • FPOs/ SHGs/ producer cooperatives would be provided a credit-linked grant of 35% for capital investment along the value chain.
    • Support for marketing & branding would be provided to develop brands for micro-units and groups with 50% grant at State or regional level which could benefit a large number of micro-units in clusters.

    Why need such a scheme?

    • The unorganized food processing sector comprising nearly 25 lakh units contribute to 74% of employment in the food processing sector.
    • Nearly 66% of these units are located in rural areas and about 80% of them are family-based enterprises supporting livelihood rural household and minimizing their migration to urban areas.

    Challenges faced

    • The unorganised food processing sector faces a number of challenges which limit their performance and their growth.
    • These challenges include lack of access to modern technology & equipment, training, access institutional credit, lack of basic awareness on quality control of products; and lack of branding & marketing skills etc.
    • Owing to these challenges; the unorganised food processing sector contributes much less in terms of value addition and output despite its huge potential.

  • Kholongchhu Hydel Project

    India and Bhutan took a major step forward for the construction of the 600 MW Kholongchhu project.

    Try this question from CSP 2019:

    What is common to the places known as Aliyar, Isapur and Kangsabati?

    (a) Recently discovered uranium deposits

    (b) Tropical rain forests

    (c) Underground cave systems

    (d) Water reservoirs

    Kholongchhu Hydel Project

    • The Kholongchhu project is regarded as a “milestone” in the India-Bhutan partnership, under which four hydropower projects have been built in the last 30 years totalling a capacity of 2,100 MW.
    • It is one of four additional projects agreed to in 2008, as a part of India’s commitment to helping Bhutan create a total 10,000 MW of installed capacity by 2020.
    • The project is located at the lower course of Kholongchhu just before its confluence with Drangmechu (Gongrichu) in Trashiyangtse District of Bhutan.
    • The GoI will provide, as a grant, the equity share of the Bhutanese DGPC in the JV Company.
    • Once the project is commissioned, the JV partners will run it for 30 years, called the concession period, after which the full ownership will transfer to the Bhutan government.

    Whats’ so special with the project?

    • It is the first hydropower joint venture project in Bhutan’s less developed eastern region of Trashiyangtse.
    • It is the first time an India-Bhutan hydropower project will be constructed as a 50:50 joint venture and not as a government-to-government agreement.

  • Governance of the commercial banks

    This article discusses the nitty-gritty of the recently released discussion paper by the RBI on governance. Governance in the commercial bank has been in the news following the failures of some banks.

    Discussion paper by RBI

    • Recently RBI released a discussion paper on ‘Governance in Commercial Banks in India’.
    • Recently there have been high-profile instances involving governance failures in certain banks.
    • These instances have called into question the adequacy of the existing legal regime for ensuring good governance in commercial banks.
    • Internationally, the question of governance norms in banks is treated differently given the complex nature of functions performed by banks in comparison to other businesses.
    • Functions of the banks make them critical for allocation of resources in the economy, protection of consumer interests and maintenance of financial stability.

    Objectives of the discussion paper

    • The stated objective of the discussion paper is to align the current regulatory framework on bank governance with global best practices.
    • Best practices include the guidelines issued by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the Financial Stability Board.

    Current regulatory framework

    • To this end, RBI adopts international standards for bank governance into the general corporate governance framework in India.
    • This general governance framework comprises the Companies Act, 2013, and the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Requirements, 2015.
    • These governance norms focus on the responsibilities of the board of directors, board structure and practices.
    • And it also includes aspects of risk management, internal audit, compliance, whistle-blowing, vigilance, disclosure and transparency.

    Issue of connection between management and owner

    • RBI also constituted an internal working group to review the extant regulatory guidelines relating to ownership and control in private sector banks.
    • This group is expected to submit its report by September 30, 2020.
    • But the assumption that deeper connections between the management and the owners necessarily lead to mismanagement needs to evaluated carefully and recalibrated to ensure balanced reforms.
    • The governance risks attributable to such connections might be relevant for government-owned banks as well.

    Key recommendations in the paper

    • (1) The majority of a commercial bank’s board must comprise of independent directors.
    • This is a standard higher than that prescribed under the Companies Act and the SEBI Regulations.
    • (2) The chairperson of the board must be an independent director.
    • (3) Chairpersons of crucial board committees (the audit committee, the risk management committee and the nomination and remuneration committee) must be independent directors who are not chairpersons of any other board committee.
    • (4) The tenures of non-promoter CEOs and WTDs should be limited to 15 years.

    Way forward

    • In order to make the reform effective, the appointment process for independent directors also needs to be re-evaluated to limit the role of controlling-shareholders.
    • The liability regime for directors on the boards of banking companies should also be revisited to balance the rights and liabilities of the directors.
    • The efficacy of implementation of norms as prescribed will depend on adequate enforcement.
    • The findings of the report of the working group have to be considered to formulate a comprehensive and effective governance framework for commercial banking in India.

    Consider the question “Given the complex nature of functions performed by the banks in comparison to other businesses subjecting them to stricter norms of governance is necessary. In light of this examine the adequacy of existing governance norms and suggest ways to improve them.”

    Conclusion

    RBI must exercise caution to ensure that the reforms balance the interests of all the stakeholders and do not come at the cost of discouraging investments and entrepreneurship in the Indian banking industry.

  • Why India is producing less and less oil?

    India’s crude oil production fell 7.1% in May 2020 compared to May 2019 on the back of low demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

    Practice question for mains:

    Q.Discuss the impact of Covid-19 pandemic on the global crude oil dynamics.

    Crude oil exploration in India

    • Crude oil production in India is dominated by two major state-owned exploration and production companies, ONGC and Oil India.
    • These companies are the key bidders for crude oil block auctions and end up acquiring most of the blocks that are put up for auction in India.

    Falling production

    • Domestic production of crude has been falling every year since FY 2012.
    • This has led to a steady climb in the proportion of imports in domestic crude oil consumption from 81.8% in 2012 to 87.6% in 2020.

    Why is production falling?

    • Most of India’s crude oil production comes from ageing wells that have become less productive over time.
    • A lack of new oil discoveries in India coupled with a long lead time to begin production from discovered wells has led to a steady decline in India’s crude oil production making dependency on imports.
    • The output of these ageing wells is declining faster than new wells can come up according to experts.
    • Domestic exploration companies are attempting to extend the life of currently operational wells.

    Why are there not more private players?

    • There has been a lack of interest in exploration and production in India from major private players, particularly those based abroad.
    • According to experts, this is because of long delays in the operationalization of production even after an oil block is allotted due to delays in approvals.
    • Some of the key approvals which are required to begin production include environmental clearances and approval by the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons after the allottee completes a seismic survey and creates a field development plan.

    What policy changes could help?

    • Existing public and private sector players have asked for reduced levies of oil production including oil cess, royalties, and profit petroleum especially when crude oil prices are below $45/barrel.
    • Experts say the requirement to pay royalties to the government at low crude prices can make it unviable for these companies to invest in further exploration and production.

    OALP could help

    • The government introduced the Open Acreage Licensing Programme (OALP) in 2019 to allow companies to carve out blocks that they are interested in and with lower royalties and no oil cess.
    • However, existing players are calling for a relaxation of royalties and oil cess on block allotted under previous policies.
    • The Chinese government offered a floor price to oil producers insulating them somewhat from any sharp falls in international crude prices.
    • This kind of policy at least allows for a company to have a fixed worst-case scenario for the sale of crude oil attracts more investment in exploration and production.

    Back2Basics: OALP

    • The OALP, a part of the government’s Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy (HELP), gives exploration companies the option to select the exploration blocks on their own, without having to wait for the formal bid round from the Government.
    • The company then submits an application to the government, which puts that block up for bid.
    • OALP offers single license to explore conventional and unconventional oil and gas resources to propel investment in and provide operational flexibility to the investors.

  • Is printing money an option to tide over the crises

    India has been dealing with unprecedented crises-with China on border and with economy and pandemic within. Fighting these crises require resources. So, this article examines the options to raise revenue and the consequences that come with them.

    Increase in financial burden to counter China

    •  The Chinese military threat calls for immediate and strategic action by our defence and foreign affairs establishments.
    • India’s war against Pakistan in Kargil in May 1999 provides hints of the financial burden of a military threat.
    • India’s defence expenditure in the war year shot up by nearly 20% from the previous year.
    •  India’s defence budget for the next financial year was 2.7% of nominal GDP, the highest in decades.
    • China is a far mightier power than Pakistan.
    • India’s defence budget has been whittled down to just 2% of GDP for the financial year 2021.
    • China’s defence budget is nearly four times larger.
    • In all likelihood, the Chinese conflict will stretch central government finances by an additional one to two percentage points of GDP.

    Economics of healthcare

    •  The combined public health expenditure of States and the central government in India is a mere 1.5% of GDP.
    • While China’s is at 3% and America’s at 9%.
    • The COVID-19 epidemic is expected to linger on for another two years.
    • There is no option other than to significantly ramp up India’s health expenditure.
    • So, government will need additional funds of the equivalent of at least one percentage point of GDP to continue the fight against COVID-19.

    But economy is in bad shape

    • India’s economy has four major drivers: 1) Spending on consumption. 2) Government spending. 3) Investment. 4) external trade.
    • Spending by people is the largest contributor to India’s economic growth every year.
    • For every ₹100 in incremental GDP, ₹60 to ₹70 comes from people’s consumption spending.
    • The lockdown shut off people from spending for two full months.
    • India’s economy will contract for the first time in nearly five decades.
    • With the global economy in tatters, trade is not a viable alternative to offset the loss from consumption.
    • Investment is also not a viable option at this stage since the demand for goods and services has fallen dramatically.

    So, what we want is new “New Deal”

    • There are only two options to come out of this situation.
    • 1) Either put money in the hands of the needy to stimulate immediate consumption.
    • 2) Or, the government has to embark on a massive spending spree, akin to the “New Deal”.
    • New Deal was a series of programmes and projects instituted in the U.S. during the Great Depression of the 1930s.
    • Government will need to inject incremental funds of five percentage points of GDP to absorb the economic shock and kick start the spending cycle again.

    Findind resources while aoiding “junk rating”

    • Additional expenditure on health, defence and stimulus package plus making up for a shortfall in revenue will lead to a fiscal deficit of 10% of GDP.
    • The only option for the government to finance its needs is to borrow copiously.
    • Borrowing will obviously push up debt to ominous levels.
    • When government debt rises dramatically, it gives rise to a “junk” crisis.
    • With rising debt levels, international rating agencies will likely downgrade India’s investment rating to “junk”.
    • Junk rating will then trigger panic among foreign investors.
    • India thus faces a tough dilemma — save the country’s borders, citizens and economy or prevent a “junk” rating.

    Is printing money an option?

    • Economic theory states that if money is printed at will, it can lead to a massive spike in prices and inflation.
    • This theory has fallen flat in the past decade in developed nations such as America.
    • The U.S dollar, by virtue of being the world’s reserve currency, has in-built protection against a currency crisis that can be triggered by at-will printing of money.
    • India don’t have that protection.
    • Hence, the Reserve Bank of India can just create money at will and transfer them to government coffers electronically, some argue.
    • Whether money is printed or borrowed from others, it will still be counted as government debt.
    • And so, cannot escape a potential downgrade to a “junk” rating.

    Consider the question “As the government has been dealing with the unprecedented crises, it has to explore the option of monetisation of its debt. Examine the issues with such a move.”

    Conclusion

    How India emerges from this crisis will shape not just India’s destiny but the world’s. The best course of action is to borrow unabashedly to pull India out of the crisis and deal with the consequences of a potential “junk” nation label.

  • International Comparison Programme (ICP) by World Bank

    The World Bank has released its ICP report for the reference year 2017. India has retained its position as the third-largest economy in the world in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), behind the US and China.

    Try this MCQ:

    Q. The International Comparison Programme (ICP) Report recently seen in news is released by:  IMF/World Bank/OECD/None.

    The International Comparison Programme (ICP)

    • ICP is one of the largest statistical initiatives in the world.
    • It is managed by the World Bank under the auspices of the United Nations Statistical Commission.
    • Globally 176 economies participated in the 2017 cycle of ICP. The next ICP comparison will be conducted for the reference year 2021.

    The main objectives of the ICP are:

    (i) To produce purchasing power parities (PPPs) and comparable price level indexes (PLIs) for participating economies;

    (ii) To convert volume and per capita measures of gross domestic product (GDP) and its expenditure components into a common currency using PPPs.

    Highlights of the report

    • India accounts for 6.7% or $8,051 billion, out of the world’s total of $119,547 billion of global GDP in terms of PPP compared to 16.4 % in case of China and 16.3 % for the US.
    • India is also the third-largest economy in terms of its PPP-based share in global Actual Individual Consumption and Global Gross Capital Formation.
    • In the Asia-Pacific Region, in 2017, India retained its regional position, as the second-largest economy, accounting for 20.83 % in terms of PPPs.
    • China was first at 50.76% and Indonesia at 7.49% was third.
    • India is also the second-largest economy in terms of its PPP-based share in regional Actual Individual Consumption and regional Gross Capital Formation.

    Trends in INR

    • The PPPs of Indian Rupee per US$ at the GDP level is now 20.65 in 2017 from 15.55 in 2011.
    • The Exchange Rate of US Dollar to Indian Rupee is now 65.12 from 46.67 during the same period.

    Significance of PPP

    • Purchasing Power Parities are vital for converting measures of economic activities to be comparable across economies.
    • It is calculated based on the price of a common basket of goods and services in each participating economy and is a measure of what an economy’s local currency can buy in another economy.
    • Market exchange rate-based conversions reflect both price and volume differences in expenditures and are thus inappropriate for volume comparisons.
    • PPP-based conversions of expenditures eliminate the effect of price level differences between economies and reflect only differences in the volume of economies.