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Subject: Economics

  • The contours of economic recovery

    This article analyses the various aspects of the stimulus package announced by the government. It gives a broad idea about the borrowing and fiscal deficit of the government. Where the fiscal deficit should be spent? Which area the announced reforms should focus on? You’ll be able to answer these questions after reading the article.

    Contraction of the Indian economy

    •  Many analysts have recently predicted a contraction for the Indian economy.
    • Goldman Sachs/ICRA and Nomura, in their recent assessments, have forecasted India’s growth to contract by (-)5.0 per cent and (-)5.2 per cent, respectively.
    • Even the RBI assesses that growth in the current year may be in the negative zone although it has not given a specific number.
    • The World Bank has predicted growth in the range of 1.5 to 2.8 per cent.
    • In order to relate budgetary magnitudes to GDP, we also need an idea of the magnitude of nominal GDP growth.
    • In the current year, this is expected to be at least 4 per cent points less than the rate of growth at 10 per cent as assumed in the 2020-21 budget.

    Let’s clear the misunderstanding about the stimulus

    • One misunderstanding about the “stimulus” must also be cleared.
    • Any increase in government expenditure over and above the base level acts as stimulus.
    • This is the traditional Keynesian approach.
    • It made no distinction between different types of expenditures.
    • It is only later studies that made a distinction based on the size of fiscal multipliers.

    How much will be the gross borrowing and fiscal deficit?

    • The Centre has already announced an increase in gross borrowing for 2020-21 from INR 7.8 lakh crore to Rs. 12 lakh crore.
    • This may lead to a fiscal deficit of about 5.7 to 5.8 per cent of GDP.
    • This may only be enough to provide for the considerable shortfall in the budgeted tax and non-tax revenues and non-debt capital receipts, which is also being estimated by a number of analysts to be in the range of Rs 18 lakh crore, implying a shortfall of Rs 4.45 lakh crore.
    • This shortfall is 2.08 per cent of GDP.
    • The Centre’s fiscal deficit will have to be further increased to accommodate the additional burden on the 2020-21 budget arising on account of the stimulus package.

    Let’s divide stimulus package into budgetary and non-budgetary part

    • The series of measures announced by the FM are a mix of i) already budgeted expenditure,ii) additional expenditure, iii) extension of credit facility with government guarantee for certain select sectors and a host of reform measures.
    • Analytically, the overall stimulus package of Rs 20.97 lakh crore can be divided into a budgetary and a non-budgetary part.

    1) Non-budgetary part

    • The non-budgetary part, accounting for nearly 85 per cent of the overall package.
    • Non-budgetary part consists mainly of liquidity enhancing measures for banks and NBFCs which may facilitate the financial sector in playing a key role to kickstart the economy.
    • The credit guarantee provided by the government under the various schemes announced recently is of central importance in this context.
    • In fact, for certain schemes, the government has come forward to provide 100 per cent guarantee, which should quicken the pace of credit sanction and delivery by banks.
    • Production of goods and services is inter-related in an economic system.
    • Once production starts, different sectors will be mutually supporting since different industries and service providers are locked in an input-output system.

    2) Budgetary part and fiscal deficits

    • The budgetary part amounts only to about 15 per cent of the overall package.
    • This can be further divided into government expenditure which was already budgeted in the 2020-21 budget and expenditures constituting genuine additionality.
    • The genuine additionality component is only 10 per cent of the package equivalent to 1 per cent of GDP.
    • Adding this to the enhanced level of 5.7 per cent of GDP, the Centre’s fiscal deficit may be close to 6.7-7 per cent of GDP.
    • This will maintain the level of budgeted expenditure while providing for the additional cost of the announced fiscal stimulus.
    • In fact, the fiscal deficit will be even higher if the current year’s GDP is lower than that of the previous year.

    Composition of government expenditure matters

    • With this high fiscal deficit, the composition of government expenditure becomes critical.
    • Some of the establishment expenditures and subsidies, especially those linked to petroleum prices like fertiliser and petroleum subsidies, may be reduced.
    • While expenditure on health-related items may be increased.
    • The central government has announced freezing of increments of DA and dearness relief components in the case of salaries and pensions respectively.
    • In fact, the government should be doing much more to relieve the plight of migrant workers.

    What is budgetary contribution for infrastructure?

    • According to the National Infrastructure Pipeline, the Centre’s budgetary contribution to infrastructure is estimated at 1.25 per cent of GDP on an annual basis.
    • This is less than 18 per cent of the estimated fiscal deficit of the Centre in 2020-21, indicating a very poor quality of fiscal deficit.
    • One dimension of expenditure restructuring should be to frontload infrastructure spending, including that on health infrastructure
    • Which will be helpful in taking advantage of the higher multiplier effects associated with capital expenditures.
    • Investment augmentation is also demand supporting and employment and income generating.

    Support to demand

    • Support to demand will come not only from the Centre but also from the states and the public sector undertakings.
    • States have been allowed to borrow an additional 2 per cent of their respective GSDPs subject to certain conditions.
    • In fact, at the present juncture, these conditions are not required since the enhancement of the borrowing limit is for one time while the reforms linked to conditions are permanent in nature.
    • In any case, states should be encouraged to support demand by going up to the full extent of the enhanced limit.

    Why the monetisation of debt is unavoidable?

    •  The combined fiscal deficit of the Centre and states alone may amount to close to 12 per cent of GDP in 2020-21.
    • Besides, the total public sector borrowing also includes the borrowing by central and state public sector undertakings.
    • Thus, the total Public Sector Borrowing Requirement may well exceed available sources of financing consisting of i) the financial savings of the household sector, ii) savings of the public sector iii) net capital inflows.
    • In this context, monetising debt has become unavoidable.
    • The Centre must be forthcoming on these issues while recognising that extraordinary situations call for extraordinary solutions.

    Reforms should be sector-specific

    • In the case of reforms, we have reached a new stage.
    • General reforms cutting across industries and sectors have been critical in the early stages.
    • The earlier regime of controls and permits had to be brought to a close.
    • But now reforms have to focus on specific sectors.
    • Applying the general principles of liberalisation to sectors such as agriculture and, more particularly, agricultural marketing, power sector, and telecom have assumed importance.
    • Labour market reforms are needed across all the states.
    • But labour reforms are introduced better when the economy is in the upswing.
    • Consensus building is critical before introducing labour reforms.
    • Land markets need to be freed up consistent with the concerns of small and marginal farmers.

    Consider the question “The fiscal stimulus and the promise of reforms announced by the government would be instrumental in bringing the Indian economy devastated by the Covid-19 pandemic back on track. Comment.”

    Conclusion

    Fiscal deficit should be used to create infrastructure ensuring that the quality of fiscal deficit is not poor. At the same time, reforms announced should be sector-specific and consensus-based in case of labour laws.

    Back2Basics: AT&C losses

    • Distribution loss consists of two parts: a. Technical loss and b. Commercial loss.
    • It is also called AT&C loss.
    • AT&C loss is nothing but the sum total of technical and commercial losses and shortage due to non-realization of billed amount.
    • AT&C Loss = (Energy input – Energy billed) * 100 / Energy input.

  • Moody’s downgrade India’s Ratings

    The Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the Government of India’s foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer ratings to “Baa3” from “Baa2”. It stated that the outlook remained “negative”.

    Practice question for mains:

    Q. Why India’s GDP growth rate is being labelled an overestimate yet again by the global credit rating agencies? Discuss this in context to the latest downgrade of Indian Economy as highlighted by the Moody’s.

    Why this matters?

    • The Moody’s is historically the most optimistic rating agency about India.
    • This downgrade challenges India’s policymaking institutions.
    • They will be challenged in enacting and implementing policies which effectively mitigate the risks of a sustained period of relatively low growth.

    What is the reason for this downgrade?

    There are four main reasons why Moody’s has taken the decision:

    • Weak implementation of economic reforms since 2017
    • Relatively low economic growth over a sustained period
    • A significant deterioration in the fiscal position of governments (central and state)
    • And the rising stress in India’s financial sector

    What does “negative” outlook mean?

    • The negative outlook reflects dominant, mutually-reinforcing, downside risks from deeper stresses in the economy and financial system.
    • These could lead to more severe and prolonged erosion in fiscal strength than Moody’s current projections.
    • The ratings have highlighted persistent structural challenges to fast economic growth such as “weak infrastructure, rigidities in labour, land and product markets, and rising financial sector risks”.
    • In other words, a “negative” implies India could be rated down further.

    Is the downgrade because of Covid-19 impact?

    No. The pandemic has amplified vulnerabilities in India’s credit profile that were present and building prior to the shock, and which motivated the assignment of a negative outlook last year.

    Then why did the downgrade happen?

    • More than two years ago, in November 2017, Moody’s had upgraded India’s rating to “Baa2” with a “stable” outlook.
    • At that time, it expected that effective implementation of key reforms would strengthen the sovereign’s credit profile through gradual but persistent measures.
    • But those hopes were belied. Since that upgrade in 2017, implementation of reforms has been relatively weak and has not resulted in material credit improvements, indicating limited policy effectiveness.
    • Each year, the central government has failed to meet its fiscal deficit (essentially the total borrowings from the market) target.
    • This has led to a steady accretion of total government debt.

    What will be the implications of this downgrade?

    • Ratings are based on the overall health of the economy and the state of government finances.
    • When India’s sovereign rating is downgraded, it becomes costlier for the Indian government as well as all Indian companies to raise funds because now the world sees such debt as a riskier proposition.
    • A rating downgrade means that bonds issued by the Indian governments are now “riskier” than before.
    • The weaker economic growth and worsening fiscal health undermine a government’s ability to pay back.
    • Lower risk is better because it allows governments and companies of that country to raise debts at a lower rate of interest.

  • The Deccan Queen Express

    The historic Deccan Queen train between Mumbai and Pune completed 90 years on June 1.

    Take the opportunity to revise some of reformative measure in the Indian Railways taken through these years.  Click here to read more .

    The Deccan Queen

    • The Deccan Queen was introduced between Mumbai and Pune on June 1, 1930 by the Great Indian Peninsula Railway (GIPR), the forerunner of the Central Railway.
    • This was the first deluxe train introduced to serve the two important cities of the region, and was named after Pune – also known as the “Queen of Deccan”.
    • It is among the rare Indian trains that have never been hauled using steam traction and were always electric-powered; on rare instances running on diesel.
    • The GIPR in the 1940s would run Race Special trains for Mumbai’s horse racing enthusiasts who would come to Pune on weekends and race days.
    • This train holds many a record, including that of being India’s first superfast train, first long-distance electric-hauled train, first vestibuled train, the first train to have a ‘women-only’ car, and the first train to feature a dining car.

    Back2Basics: Railways in India

    • Indian Railways started its service 164 years ago on 16 April 1853.
    • The first railway proposals for India were made in Madras in 1832.
    • The first train was run over a stretch of 33 kilometres from Mumbai to Thane and was hauled by three steam locomotives named Sahib, Sindh and Sultan.
    • Indian Railway now has the 4th largest rail network in the world after the United States of America, China and Russia.

  • Problem of interest rate differential in India

    Do you remember Operation Twist by the RBI? what was being twisted there? It was the yield curve that was sought to be twisted. It had been aimed at reducing the gap between long term interest rates and short term policy rates. This article explains the impact such gap could have on the economy.

    Why long term loans come with a higher interest rate?

    • Long term loans equate to long repayment periods.
    • More uncertainty during these long periods can translate to higher risks.
    • And to compensate for the high risks involved, banks quote higher interest rates when corporates borrow from them to build and operate stuff.
    • However, when banks borrow from the RBI they are borrowing over short intervals.
    • And so they get charged lower interest rates.

    So, why banks are keeping interest rates high despite borrowing at low rates from the RBI?

    • Ever so often, the RBI cuts rates in the hopes of making loans more accessible to banks.
    • They are hoping banks will also extend this benevolence to their customers by cutting long term interest rates.
    • But right now, banks are scared.
    • They don’t think the corporates can pay back.
    • So they are keeping long term rates at elevated levels despite borrowing at consistently low rates from the RBI.

    What happens when gap between long-term and short term interest rates widen?

    •  Capital wasn’t cheap to begin with for corporate borrowers, and it’s getting more expensive.
    • This comes just as migrant rural workers have been driven out of urban production centers because of shuttered factories.
    • Even if this labor is safely put back on, say, road construction, concessionaires [think private road contractors] might still go bankrupt before completing any projects.
    • That’s because their annuity payments from the government are linked to falling short-term policy rates, whereas their long-term borrowing costs are both high and sticky

    To understand the issue of annuity payment and its relation with interest rates, let’s dig deeper into 3 types of models-

    1. Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) Model

    • So, NHAI is the National Highways Authority of India and is largely responsible for building and maintaining roads.
    • Its preferred method to get the job done is to deploy what is called the BOT model.
    • The Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) model, as the name suggests is a way for NHAI to offload its responsibilities of road building to private contractors.
    • Under BOT model, private contractors build the road, operate it, make money off of collecting toll, and after about 10–15 years, they hand over the road back to NHAI.
    • There aren’t enough private contractors willing to bid for such projects because — hey, maintaining and operating a road is a pain.
    • Why pain?  You have to wait 15 years to recoup all the money you had to pour in to build the damn thing. That’s the pain.

    2. Engineering, procurement and Construction (EPC) model

    • Under the EPC (Engineering, Procurement & Construction) model, NHAI pays private contractors first, so that they can help NHAI build the road.
    • The contractor does not operate or collect tolls here.
    • Instead, it can walk away scot-free with money in its coffers once it’s done building the road.
    • But it’s hard for the government to shore up all the resources required upfront.

    3. Hybrid Annuity Model (HAM)- The middle path

    •  It’s a nice little mix of both EPC and BOT.
    • Under it, NHAI pays some money upfront in fixed installments usually, 40% of the project cost.
    • And the private contractor does his bit by putting up the rest and finishing the project.
    • However, once the construction is complete, the contractor does not make money off of collecting toll.
    • Instead, he transfers the assets over to NHAI.
    • So its incumbent on the government to pay the rest of the money once the project takes off.
    • And the payments are dependent on the asset created, the performance of the developer, and a few other things.
    • However, since the payouts usually last 15–20 years we need to find a way to determine what kind of money the government pays the contractor every 6 months.
    • And here’s the best way to think about this — So when the government pays the 40% upfront, it’s promising to pay the 60% sometime in the future.
    • It’s money they owe the contractor.

    And, here is the crux of the matter

    • So when the repayments, are made, they’ll have to pay the principal and the interest.
    • The interest involves a fixed component (3%) and a variable component.
    • What is varible component? The variable component is effectively the short term policy rates.
    • So if the RBI keeps cutting these short term rates, private contractors get less money per instalment even if their roads are all nice and shiny.
    • And this can’t bode well for them because they probably put up the 60% back in the day by borrowing from another bank.
    • A bank that’s charging them long term interest rates that refuse to come down.

    Conclusion

    The widening gap between the short term policy rates and long term interest could easily spell the disaster for the entrepreneurs and in turn for the economy as a whole. The government should consider a special package for such entities given the unprecedented situations we found ourselves in.

  • What are Social Stock Exchanges?

    A working group constituted by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) on Social Stock Exchanges (SSEs) has recommended allowing non-profit organisations to directly list on such platforms.

    Practice questions for mains:

    Q. What are Social Stock Exchanges? Discuss how it will help finance social enterprises in India.

    What are Social Stock Exchanges (SSEs)?

    • An SSE is a platform which allows investors to buy shares in social enterprises vetted by an official exchange.
    • The Union Budget 2019 proposed setting up of first of its kind SSE in India.
    • The SSE will function as a common platform where social enterprises can raise funds from the public.
    • It will function on the lines of major stock exchanges like BSE and NSE. However, the purpose of the Social Stock Exchange will be different – not profit, but social welfare.
    • Under the regulatory ambit of SEBI, a listing of social enterprises and voluntary organizations will be undertaken so that they can raise capital as equity, debt or as units like a mutual fund.

    Why SSEs?

    • India needs massive investments in the coming years to be able to meet the human development goals identified by global bodies like the UN.
    • This can’t be done through government expenditure alone. Private enterprises working in the social sector also need to step up their activities.
    • Currently, social enterprises are very active in India. However, they face challenges in raising funds.
    • One of the biggest hurdles they face is, apparently, the lack of trust from common investors.

    Benefits

    • There is a great opportunity to unlock funds from donors, philanthropic foundations and CSR spenders, in the form of zero-coupon zero principal bonds. These bonds will be listed on the SSE.
    • At first, the SSE could become a repository of social enterprises and impact investors.
    • The registration could be done through a standard process.
    • The SEs could be categorized into different stages such as- Idea, growth stage and likewise, investors can also be grouped based on the type of investment.

  • Kisan Credit Cards (KCC) for 1.5 crore dairy farmers

    The Union Govt. is set to provide Kisan Credit Card (KCC) to 1.5 crore dairy farmers belonging to Milk Unions and Milk producing Companies within the next two months under a special drive.

    We can expect multiple statements based prelim question here. Note the following features of the KCC from the newscard:

    1. Year of its introduction (in rarest case)

    2. Types of banks issuing KCC

    3. Credit types extended under KCC

    4. Sectors covered under KCC

    What is Kisan Credit Card (KCC)?

    • KCC is a credit scheme introduced in August 1998 by banks to extend credit facilities to farmers.
    • This model scheme was prepared by the NABARD on the recommendations of R.V. GUPTA committee to provide term loans for agricultural needs
    • Participating institutions include all commercial banks, Regional Rural Banks, and state co-operative banks. The scheme has short term credit limits for crops and term loans.
    • KCC offering credit to the farmers is of two types: 1. Cash Credit 2. Term Credit (for allied activities such as pump sets, land development, plantation, drip irrigations).

    Facilities under KCC

    • Credit card and passbook or credit card cum passbook provided to eligible farmers facilitate revolving cash credit facility.
    • Any number of withdrawals and repayments within a limit, which is fixed on the basis of operational land holding, cropping pattern and scale of finance can be made.
    • Each withdrawal has to be repaid within a maximum period of 12 months and the Card is valid for 3 to 5 years subject to annual review.
    • Conversion/reschedulement of loans is permissible in case of damage to crops due to natural calamities.
    • Crop loans disbursed under KCC Scheme for notified crops are covered under Rashtriya Krishi Bima Yojana, to protect farmers against loss of crop yield caused by natural calamities, pest attacks etc.

    What’s’ in the bucket for Dairy Farmers?

    • Under the dairy cooperative movement, approximately 1.7 crore farmers are associated with 230 Milk Unions in the country.
    • In the first phase of this campaign, the target is to cover all farmers who are members of dairy cooperative societies and associated with different Milk Unions and who do not have KCC.
    • Although the general limit for KCC credit without collateral is Rs. 1.6 lakh, but for dairy farmers, it can be upto Rs.3 lakh.
    • This will ensure more credit availability for dairy farmers associated with Milk Unions as well as assuring repayment of loans to banks.

  • CHAMPIONS Platform to empower MSMEs

    Recently PM has launched the technology platform CHAMPIONS as a one-stop-shop solution of MSME Ministry.

    At the very first sight, the name CHAMPIONS creates a delusion. It looks more of an HRD initiative. Here lies the risk! Please cautiously make a personal note here. Demarcate all such initiatives on an A4 page.

    CHAMPIONS Platform

    • CHAMPIONS stand for Creation and Harmonious Application of Modern Processes for Increasing the Output and National Strength.
    • The portal is basically for making the smaller units big by solving their grievances, encouraging, supporting, helping and handholding.
    • It is a technology-packed control room-cum-management information system.
    • It is also fully integrated on a real-time basis with GOI’s main grievances portal CPGRAMS and MSME Ministry’s own other web-based mechanisms.
    • This ICT based system is set up to help the MSMEs in a present difficult situation and also to handhold them to become national and international champions.

    Detailed objectives

    • Grievance Redressal: To resolve the problems of MSMEs including those of finance, raw materials, labour, regulatory permissions etc particularly in the COVID created a difficult situation;
    • To help them capture new opportunities: including manufacturing of medical equipment and accessories like PPEs, masks, etc and supply them in National and International markets;
    • To identify and encourage the sparks:e. the potential MSMEs who are able to withstand the current situation and can become national and international champions.

  • Is India prepared for crude oil eventualities?

    The era we are living in is reigned by the uncertainties. And the oil market is not immune to these uncertainties. Against this background, India’s energy security is discussed in this article. Switching to the “just in case” needs with respect to crude oil is suggested by the author. But, that would require capital. So, how could the problem of capital be solved? Read the article to know…

    Switching from just in time to just in case

    • The post-COVID “world (will be) switching from just in time to just in case”  said economist Alan Kirman.
    • This is more so for the Indian petroleum sector.
    • The decision-makers of this sector should switch to a “just in case” policy mode.

    Oil market: Land full of uncertainties

    • The oil market is in no man’s land. Few speak with conviction about its future trajectory.
    • Last month, it dropped into negative territory for a day in the USA.
    • But today the price of the same crude quality is above $30/barrel.
    • If one reads the commentary of experts, some predict that prices will soon cross $50/barrel while some predict price-crash to below $20/barrel.
    • The fine print of these reports is always caveated with the disclaimer, “it all depends” on one or more of the comparably uncertain variables.
    • These variables include economic growth, geopolitics — US-China relations, the timing of the development of an anti-COVID vaccine or a combination of all these variables.
    • The fact is no one really knows how the petroleum sector will fare in the “new normal” of the post-COVID world.

    The problems policy-makers face: some known, some unknown

    • Policy-makers know that irrespective of the twists and turns in the petroleum market, India will need fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) to drive its economic growth for at least the next decade, if not longer.
    • And that a sizeable percentage of these requirements will have to be imported.
    • The country does not have the geology to expect gushers especially in an environment of volatile (and relatively low) oil prices.
    • What must also be discomforting is the “known unknown” of the post-COVID stress.
    • They know that COVID has knocked the props from under the Indian economy.
    • They also know that every petroleum company, irrespective of whether it is in the private or public sector, will face an increasingly uncertain and challenging future business environment.
    • What they do not know is the nature of these challenges, and therefore, the conditions, sine qua non, for managing them.

    Let’s look at some facts and figures of India’s crude oil requirements

    • India consumes around 50,00,000 barrels of crude oil every day.
    • Of that, it imports approximately 45,00,000 barrels/day making the country the third-largest crude market in the world.
    • Every month, on average, 70 loaded VLCC (very large crude carriers ) — accounting for 10 per cent of the global tanker market — bring crude oil to India.
    • Approximately 60 per cent of this oil is discharged in and around the Jamnagar area and then carried by pipelines to refineries in Jamnagar, Mathura, Panipat, Bina and Bhatinda.
    • And 50 per cent or so is sourced from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Iran and Iraq.
    • It is against this background of post-COVID uncertainties and above facts India should consider switching to “just in case” policy mode.

    Why should India consider switching to “just in case” policy mode?

    We should analyse this by considering two scenarios

    • ONGC/OIL are strategically important PSUs.
    • Few have questioned the support to these two companies and the importance of harnessing our indigenous oil and gas reserves.
    • Until now, this support has been premised on the view that oil supplies are relatively scarce and that prices will trend upwards.

    1) Low oil prices scenario

    • 1) We now need to ask: What if, “just in case” the oil market is structurally oversupplied and prices fall to such low levels that it makes no commercial sense for ONGC/OIL to expend public resources on “ high risk, high cost” exploration?
    • Oil and gas are, after all, tradables and can be purchased on the high seas.
    • Should they not, given this possibility, contemplate redefining their core purpose and perhaps pivot away from oil and gas towards clean energy?

    2) Choking of supply lines scenario

    • Looked at through a different lens but with a “just in case” mindset, the preponderance of crude supplies sourced from countries facing deep political, economic and social tensions raises the question:
    • What if these domestic problems choked our access?
    • How would we manage the disruption?
    • Our decision-makers have worried about supply security for decades.
    • But the circumstances created by COVID are new.
    • The issue of strategic reserves could, for instance, acquire a different hue.
    • We have currently 11 days of reserve cover (5.33 million tonnes) with plans to increase it to 24 days (11.83 million tonnes).
    • Were we to decide to build up these reserves to levels comparable to other countries of between 70 to 100 days of import cover, the issue would be capital.
    • Given the slowdown of the economy and the pressures on the exchequer, the government would not have the financial resources to invest in the creation of additional facilities.
    • The only way this financial hurdle could be overcome is if the government and the private sector invest jointly.
    • This collaborative option would have to be considered to counter the “just in case” contingency of prolonged and major disruption.
    • And if indeed such an option were acceptable, it could be extended to cover trading, crude purchases, co-freighting, subject of course to anti-trust and competition rules.

    Consider the example to understand the importance of “just in case” thinking

    • An example to embed the importance of “just in case” thinking can be drawn from the geopolitics of our neighbourhood.
    • What if the relations between India/Pakistan/China took an ugly turn?
    • What security measures should we contemplate to protect the petroleum assets located in Mumbai and Jamnagar?

    Consider the question “Over the decades, India has been grappling with the issue of energy security. With the rising uncertainties around the world, the issue has gained more prominence. In light of this, suggest the ways to tide over the disruption in oil supplies.”

    Conclusion

    In the backdrop of COVID, when all hands on decks are needed to tackle the “urgent” task of reviving the economy, the government must not, in the process, lose sight of the “importance” of creating, if nothing else, the mindset of preparedness to respond to “just in case outcomes”.

  • Using COVID crisis to reorient India towards reforms

    Following the announcement of relief and stimulus package, the debate began over its various aspects. This article assesses the various aspects of the package and draws comparison with the package announced by the other countries. So, how does India fare compared with other countries?

    Fiscal component of  stimulus package

    • According to the IMF-PT (policy tracker), the fiscal component of the Indian package is estimated to be at least 3.5 per cent of GDP as expenditure for poor households, migrant workers and agriculture.
    • There is an additional 0.5 per cent of GDP for states to spend unconditionally, bringing the fiscal package excluding loans to businesses to at least 4 per cent of GDP.
    • The support for businesses (MSMEs) is estimated to be 2.7 per cent of GDP.
    • Of this, at least 2 per cent of GDP is in the form of 100 per cent credit guarantees and equity infusion.

    Comparison with major emerging economies

    • Among major developing economies, only Brazil -8 per cent of GDP– and Peru -7 per cent of GDP– have a fiscal stimulus higher than the 5 per cent level for India.
    • The Brazil estimate includes about 3 per cent of GDP as working capital loans to businesses and households.
    • The fiscal support level for some important emerging economies is — China 2.5 per cent of GDP and Indonesia 3.5 per cent.

    Why it is difficult to segregate the stimulus package?

    • While comparing the fiscal stimulus packages across countries, it is important to understand that such packages are in the nature of additional spending and tax reliefs.
    • Which can work directly through aggregate demand or indirectly by mitigating risk and enhancing access to fund.
    • Access to fund is ensured in the nature of credit guarantees to financial institutions and non-financial enterprises
    • A large number of fiscal stimulus packages announced by different countries contain credit guarantees to financial institutions, SMEs, and agriculture.
    • Hence, it is difficult to segregate fiscal stimulus into its pure and impure components.
    • Most economists, and international organisations, recognise that fiscal stimulus consists of both the pure and impure.
    • And includes three broad items — a direct “above-the-line” component, a “below-the-line” component and guarantees of various forms primarily credit.
    • The choice of using only one component of the fiscal stimulus is selective and highly inappropriate.

    India as a positive fiscal stimulus outlier

    • To put the packages into perspective, the average of all fiscal measures in the G24 developing economies is equal to 3.6 per cent.
    • No matter how the calculation is done, India is a positive fiscal stimulus outlier; by IMF-PT calculations.
    • The stimulus is close to the largest among major emerging market economies.

    So, how much rich countries are spending?

    • The rich nations are spending more — they can afford to. Japan announced what may be the upper limit to the expansion — 21.1 per cent of GDP.
    • However, this does include large elements of loans and credit guarantees.
    • Through a combination of several fiscal measures (tax deferrals, credit guarantees, etc.) the US has pledged close to 13 per cent of GDP.
    • The European Union, on average, has pledged 4 per cent of GDP.
    • The average for advanced countries is around 6 per cent of GDP.

    Significance of monetary policy change made by RBI

    • The monetary policy change in India is quite significant.
    • The change paves the way for internationally competitive monetary policy.
    •  That is, real interest rates comparable to those prevalent in competitor economies.
    • The repo rate now stands at 4 per cent, with inflation well contained.
    • This is substantially a much different, and much-improved RBI response than that what occurred in 2008-09.
    • At that time, as a monetary counter to the financial crisis, the RBI reduced the repo rate by 425 basis points to 4.75 per cent.
    • This was done over seven months and the prevailing CPI inflation rate was 10 per cent.

    Economic reforms as a part of stimulus package

    • India has announced several economic reforms as a part of the stimulus package.
    • These are long-awaited — freeing up of the labour market, allowing farmers to sell their produce and land to who they choose, removal of archaic laws like the Essential Commodities Act, with the promise of more to come.
    • This is not an empty promise — the Centre will advance another 1.5 per cent of GDP to states to expand spending.
    • This advance will be conditional on them for undertaking long-pending reforms.
    • The Indian fiscal package is reformist, well-disciplined and provides focused support; and if needed, there is still room for additional measures.

    Conclusion

    The Indian fiscal package is reformist, well-disciplined and provides focused support; and if needed, there is still room for additional measures. We should use the crisis to re-orient India towards its long-awaited destiny.

  • Foreign direct investment (FDI) in India

    The FDI in India grew by 13% to a record of $49.97 billion in the 2019-20 financial years, according to official data.

    Get aware with the recently updated FDI norms. Key facts mentioned in this newscard can make a direct statement based MCQ in the prelims.

    Ex. FDI source in decreasing order: Singapore – Mauritius – Netherland – Ceyman Islands – Japan – France

    Data on FDI

    • The country had received an FDI of $44.36 billion during April-March 2018-19.
    • The sectors which attracted maximum foreign inflows during 2019-20 include services ($7.85 billion), computer software and hardware ($7.67 billion), telecommunications ($4.44 billion), trading ($4.57 billion), automobile ($2.82 billion), construction ($2 billion), and chemicals ($1 billion).
    • Singapore emerged as the largest source of FDI in India during the last fiscal with $14.67 billion investments.
    • It was followed by Mauritius ($8.24 billion), the Netherlands ($6.5 billion), the U.S. ($4.22 billion), Caymen Islands ($3.7 billion), Japan ($3.22 billion), and France ($1.89 billion).

    What is FDI?

    • An FDI is an investment in the form of a controlling ownership in a business in one country by an entity based in another country.
    • It is thus distinguished from a foreign portfolio investment by a notion of direct control.
    • FDI may be made either “inorganically” by buying a company in the target country or “organically” by expanding the operations of an existing business in that country.
    • Broadly, FDI includes “mergers and acquisitions, building new facilities, reinvesting profits earned from overseas operations, and intra company loans”.
    • In a narrow sense, it refers just to building a new facility, and lasting management interest.

    FDI in India

    • Foreign investment was introduced in 1991 under Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA), driven by then FM Manmohan Singh.
    • There are two routes by which India gets FDI.

    1) Automatic route: By this route, FDI is allowed without prior approval by Government or RBI.

    2) Government route: Prior approval by the government is needed via this route. The application needs to be made through Foreign Investment Facilitation Portal, which will facilitate the single-window clearance of FDI application under Approval Route.

    • India imposes a cap on equity holding by foreign investors in various sectors, current FDI in aviation and insurance sectors is limited to a maximum of 49%.
    • In 2015 India overtook China and the US as the top destination for the Foreign Direct Investment.

    Back2Basics

    Amendment in the FDI Policy for curbing opportunistic takeovers/acquisitions of Indian companies