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Subject: Geography

  • Consider the following statements

    Consider the following statements:

    I. Anadyr in Siberia and Nome in Alaska are a few kilometers from each other, but when people are waking up and getting set for breakfast in these cities, it would be different days.
    II. When it is Monday in Anadyr, it is Tuesday in Nome.

    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

  • Consider the following pairs

    Consider the following pairs:

    Country Resource-rich in
    I. Botswana Diamond
    II. Chile Lithium
    III. Indonesia Nickel

    In how many of the above rows is the given information correctly matched?

  • Consider the following pairs

    Consider the following pairs:
    Region Country
    I. Mallorca Italy
    II. Normandy Spain
    III. Sardinia France
    In how many of the above rows is the given information correctly matched?

  • Consider the following statements

    Consider the following statements:

    Statement I:
    In the context of effect of water on rocks, chalk is known as a very permeable rock, whereas clay is known as quite an impermeable or least permeable rock.

    Statement II:
    Chalk is porous and hence can absorb water.

    Statement III:
    Clay is not at all porous.

    Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements?

  • Consider the following statements

    Consider the following statements:
    Statement I:
    The amount of dust particles in the atmosphere is more in subtropical and temperate areas than in equatorial and polar regions.
    Statement II:
    Subtropical and temperate areas have less dry winds.

    Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements?

  • Consider the following statements

    Consider the following statements:

    I. Without the atmosphere, temperature would be well below freezing point everywhere on the Earth’s surface.
    II. Heat absorbed and trapped by the atmosphere maintains our planet’s average temperature.
    III. Atmosphere’s gases, like carbon dioxide, are particularly good at absorbing and trapping radiation.

    Which of the statements given above are correct?

  • Consider the following statements

    Consider the following statements:
    Statement I: Scientific studies suggest that a shift is taking place in the Earth’s rotation and axis.
    Statement II: Solar flares and associated coronal mass ejections bombarded the Earth’s outermost atmosphere with tremendous amount of energy.
    Statement III: As the Earth’s polar ice melts, the water tends to move towards the equator.
    Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements?

  • Consider the following statements

    Consider the following statements:

    Statement I:
    In January, in the Northern Hemisphere, the isotherms bend equatorward while crossing the landmasses, and poleward while crossing the oceans.

    Statement II:
    In January, the air over the oceans is warmer than that over the landmasses in the Northern Hemisphere.

    Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements?

  • India’s Monsoon Deficit and Super El Niño Concerns

    Why in News?

    India’s southwest monsoon rainfall deficit widened to 35%, with Central India recording a 61% deficit, as the monsoon stalled before reaching Mumbai. The Centre has placed around 150 to 200 districts under priority monitoring and directed States to prepare crop-wise contingency plans.

    Key Highlights

    • All-India rainfall deficit: 35%.
    • Regional deficits: Northwest India: +5%, East & Northeast India: -43%, Central India: -61%, and Southern Peninsula: -14%
    • Monsoon reached Kerala on 4 June, but its advance weakened near Mumbai.
    • Around 150 to 200 districts under priority monitoring.
    • Government encouraging a shift towards cotton and pulses.
    • Reservoir storage stood at 30.4% of capacity, compared to 25.1% average during previous El Niño years.

    Why has the Monsoon Stalled?

    • Anticyclonic circulation north of Mumbai blocked monsoon progression.
    • Influence of mid-latitude westerly systems.
    • Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in an unfavourable phase.
    • Next monsoon pulse may strengthen with a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal.

    El Niño Concerns

    • El Niño: Periodic warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that generally suppresses the Indian monsoon.
    • U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): Issued El Niño advisory on 11 June. 63% probability of a very strong El Niño by winter.
    • World Meteorological Organization (WMO): 80% probability of El Niño developing between June and August.
    • India Meteorological Department (IMD):
      • Seasonal rainfall forecast revised from 92% to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
      • Assigned a 60% probability of a deficient monsoon, the most pessimistic pre-season forecast since 2015.
      • No positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) expected to offset El Niño effects.

    Significance

    • Threatens kharif sowing and agricultural output.
    • May increase food inflation and rural distress.
    • Necessitates timely contingency planning and climate-resilient agriculture.
    • Highlights the need for improved water management and drought preparedness.

    Value Addition

    • Long Period Average (LPA): Average rainfall during 1971-2020, used as the benchmark for monsoon forecasts.
    • Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): Eastward-moving atmospheric disturbance influencing monsoon activity.
    • Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean that can influence Indian monsoon rainfall.

    [2017] With reference to ‘Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)’ sometimes mentioned in the news while forecasting Indian monsoon, which of the following statements is/are correct?
    1. IOD phenomenon is characterised by a difference in sea surface temperature between tropical Western Indian Ocean and tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean.
    2. An IOD phenomenon can influence an El Nino’s impact on the monsoon.
    Select the correct answer using the code given below:

    [A] 1 only

    [B] 2 only

    [C] Both 1 and 2

    [D] Neither 1 nor 2

  • ‘Super El Niño’ forms in Pacific: Why 2027 is likely to be the hottest year on record

    Why in the News?

    The emergence of Super El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean has become a major concern because it coincides with India’s crucial southwest monsoon season. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially confirmed the development of El Niño and warned that it is expected to strengthen further during the monsoon months. This

    How Has El Niño Developed During the Current Monsoon Season?

    1. IMD Confirmation: El Niño conditions have officially emerged in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    2. Strengthening Trend: IMD expects the phenomenon to intensify further during the ongoing southwest monsoon season.
    3. NOAA Assessment: The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) earlier confirmed El Niño emergence.
    4. Peak Projection: NOAA projects the event to peak during November-January.
    5. Intensity Forecast: The event may approach the “very strong” category.

    ENSO Threshold

    1. Niño 3.4 Region: El Niño is declared when sea surface temperature anomalies exceed +0.5°C in the Niño 3.4 region.
      1. The Niño 3.4 region (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W) is the primary equatorial Pacific area used by scientists to monitor, define, and predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). 
    2. Current Reading: Weekly Niño 3.4 Index reached +0.7°C.
    3. Eastern Pacific Warming: Temperature anomalies reached +2.1°C in the easternmost Pacific region.

    What Makes the Current El Niño Different from Previous Events?

    Emerging “Super El Niño” Concerns

    1. NOAA Forecast: El Niño has officially formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is likely to strengthen significantly in the coming months.
    2. Historical Significance: Scientists have projected that the current event could rank among the strongest El Niño episodes recorded since 1950.
    3. Probability Estimate: NOAA estimates a 63% probability that the event will intensify into one of the largest El Niño events in the historical record.
    4. Transition Phase: The current event follows the end of La Niña conditions earlier in 2026.
    5. Global Warning: The UN Secretary-General António Guterres has described the phenomenon as an “urgent climate warning.”

    Why is it Being Called a “Super El Niño”?

    1. Exceptional Ocean Warming: Unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures are accelerating ENSO development.
    2. Early Intensification: Forecast models indicate stronger warming developing earlier than normally expected.
    3. Historical Comparison: Scientists have compared the event to major El Niño episodes such as 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.
    4. Global Temperature Impact: Multiple climate models suggest that 2027 could become the hottest year ever recorded globally.

    What is ENSO and How Does It Operate?

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    1. Climate Oscillation: Naturally occurring ocean-atmosphere phenomenon over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    2. Recurrence: Appears every 2-7 years.
    3. Phases: El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña.

    El Niño

    1. Oceanic Condition: The abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
    2. Mechanism: Trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to push east toward South America.
    3. Indian Impact: Usually suppresses monsoon rainfall.

    La Niña

    1. Oceanic Condition: The abnormal cooling of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
    2. Mechanism: Trade winds strengthen, pushing warm water toward Asia and pulling cold water up to the surface off South America.
    3. Indian Impact: Generally supports stronger monsoon rainfall.

    Why Could 2027 Become the Hottest Year on Record?

    Interaction Between El Niño and Global Warming

    1. Natural Climate Driver: El Niño releases large amounts of heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere.
    2. Anthropogenic Warming: Human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have already raised baseline global temperatures.
    3. Compounding Effect: El Niño adds temporary warming on top of long-term climate change trends.
    4. WMO Forecast: Above-average global temperatures are expected between June and August, with effects continuing through November.

    Climate Consequences

    1. Temperature Extremes: Higher likelihood of record-breaking temperatures globally.
    2. Heatwaves: Increased frequency and intensity across multiple continents.
    3. Hydrological Extremes: Simultaneous occurrence of droughts and floods in different regions.
    4. Wildfire Risk: Elevated probability of large-scale forest fires in drought-prone regions.

    Why Does the Impact of El Niño Differ Across Regions?

    Not Every El Niño Produces the Same Outcomes

    1. Climate Variability: Every El Niño develops differently in terms of intensity, timing and ocean-atmosphere interaction.
    2. NOAA Observation: Each El Niño leaves a unique climatic imprint on global weather systems.
    3. Regional Factors: Local ocean temperatures, atmospheric circulation and other climate oscillations influence outcomes.

    Importance of Forecasting

    1. Advanced Monitoring: Improved ocean observation systems enhance prediction capabilities.
    2. Early Warning Systems: Better forecasting enables governments to prepare for disasters and agricultural losses.
    3. Climate Preparedness: Supports adaptation planning and resource allocation.

    How Could Super El Niño Reshape Global Weather Patterns?

    North America

    1. Atlantic Hurricane Suppression: Reduced hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean.
    2. Pacific Hurricane Intensification: Increased cyclone activity over the Pacific.
    3. US Winter Impact: Southern United States may experience wetter conditions and flooding.
    4. Pacific Northwest: Warmer and drier weather expected.

    South America

    1. Flood Risk: Northern Peru and southern Ecuador face heightened flooding threats.
    2. Heavy Rainfall: Western South America may experience excessive precipitation.
    3. Temperature Rise: Greater likelihood of unusually warm summers.

    East and Northeast Africa

    1. Weather Whiplash: Rapid shifts between drought and extreme rainfall.
    2. Flood Hazards: Increased flood risk in vulnerable regions.
    3. Agricultural Stress: High uncertainty for rain-fed agriculture.

    India

    1. Monsoon Deficit: Higher probability of below-normal rainfall.
    2. Heatwaves: Greater frequency and intensity.
    3. Agricultural Losses: Increased stress on kharif crops and water resources.

    Indonesia and Vietnam

    1. Drought Risk: Rainfall shortages may affect major rice-producing regions.
    2. Food Security Concerns: Potential reduction in agricultural output.

    Australia

    1. Heatwaves: Higher temperature anomalies.
    2. Wildfires: Elevated bushfire risk.
    3. Drought Conditions: Reduced precipitation in several regions.

    Why Does El Niño Affect India’s Southwest Monsoon?

    1. Walker Circulation Shift: Alters atmospheric circulation responsible for moisture transport.
    2. Reduced Moisture Transport: Weakens monsoon winds reaching the Indian subcontinent.
    3. Rainfall Deficiency: Leads to below-normal precipitation across large parts of India.
    4. Temperature Rise: Reduced cloud cover increases surface temperatures.

    IMD Forecast

    1. Seasonal Deficit: Rainfall expected to be 10% below normal.
    2. Spatial Distribution: Most regions likely to receive below-normal rainfall.
    3. Exception: Northeastern India expected to receive relatively normal rainfall.

    How Do Rainfall Patterns Change During El Niño Years?

    Regional Variability

    1. Northeastern India: Often receives normal rainfall.
    2. Extreme Southern India: May receive near-normal rainfall.
    3. Rest of India: Usually experiences rainfall deficits.

    Temperature Effects

    1. Heat Intensification: Reduced rainfall contributes to rising temperatures.
    2. Extended Heat Conditions: Higher risk of heatwaves and moisture stress.

    What Role Does the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Play?

    Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

    1. Definition: Difference in sea surface temperatures between western and eastern Indian Ocean.
    2. Phases: Positive, Neutral, Negative.

    Current Status

    1. Neutral Phase: Expected to remain neutral during the southwest monsoon.
    2. 2026 Outlook: Neutral conditions expected to continue for most of the year.

    Significance

    1. Monsoon Modulator: Positive IOD can sometimes offset El Niño-induced monsoon weakness.
    2. Current Concern: Neutral IOD may not provide compensatory support.

    What Oceanic Changes Are Being Observed Around India?

    Bay of Bengal Warming

    1. Temperature Increase: Significant positive sea surface temperature anomalies observed.
    2. Impact: Supports atmospheric instability and temperature rise.

    Arabian Sea Warming

    1. Above-Normal Temperatures: Positive SST anomalies recorded.
    2. Climate Consequence: Enhances extreme weather variability.

    Eastern Indian Ocean

    1. Widespread Warming: Above-normal SST conditions observed during May

    How Could Super El Niño Trigger a Global Food Security Crisis?

    Agricultural Disruptions

    1. Crop Vulnerability: Maize, rice and several staple crops are highly sensitive to drought conditions.
    2. Production Risks: Major agricultural regions may experience reduced productivity.
    3. Market Volatility: Supply shocks can increase global food prices.

    Countries at Risk

    1. India: Rainfed agriculture vulnerable to monsoon deficits.
    2. South Africa: Drought threatens maize production.
    3. Indonesia: Rice production risks increase.
    4. Vietnam: Potential impacts on rice exports.
    5. Brazil: Rainfall variability may affect agricultural output.

    Global Consequences

    1. Food Inflation: Rising prices of cereals and food commodities.
    2. Supply Chain Disruptions: Agricultural trade flows may be affected.
    3. Livelihood Risks: Farmers and vulnerable populations face income losses.

    Why Is El Niño a Concern for India’s Economy and Agriculture?

    1. Agriculture
      1. Crop Stress: Reduces soil moisture availability.
      2. Rainfed Farming: Increases vulnerability of kharif crops.
      3. Yield Losses: Impacts rice, pulses, oilseeds, and coarse cereals.
    2. Water Security
      1. Reservoir Recharge: Limits replenishment of water bodies.
      2. Groundwater Stress: Increases extraction pressures.
    3. Inflation
      1. Food Prices: Reduced agricultural output may trigger food inflation.
      2. Supply Constraints: Affect agricultural supply chains.
    4. Energy
      1. Power Demand: Rising temperatures increase cooling requirements.
      2. Hydropower: Lower reservoir levels affect generation capacity.

    What Lessons Can Be Drawn from the 2015-16 Super El Niño?

    India’s Experience

    1. Rainfall Deficit: India received only 86% of Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall.
    2. Agricultural Stress: Several states experienced drought-like conditions.
    3. Water Scarcity: Reservoir levels and groundwater recharge declined.

    Key Lesson

    1. ENSO Alone is Not Deterministic: Strong El Niño events do not always produce identical outcomes.
    2. Role of Other Drivers: Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Eurasian snow cover and regional ocean temperatures also influence monsoon performance.

    Conclusion

    The emerging El Niño highlights the growing interaction between natural climate variability and global warming. With risks of weaker monsoons, heatwaves, food insecurity and extreme weather events, India must strengthen climate-resilient agriculture, early warning systems, water management and disaster preparedness to reduce vulnerability and build long-term resilience.

    Value Addition

    YearCharacteristicsGlobal Impact
    1982-83One of strongest recordedDroughts, floods, crop losses
    1997-98Extreme warmingMajor global weather disruptions
    2015-16Strongest of recent decadesGlobal temperature records broken
    2026-27*Potential Super El NiñoRisk of hottest year in recorded history

    Positive vs Negative IOD

    Positive IODNegative IOD
    Warmer western Indian OceanWarmer eastern Indian Ocean
    Supports Indian monsoonWeakens monsoon
    Can offset El Niño impactCan worsen El Niño impact

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2015] How far do you agree that the behavior of the Indian monsoon has been changing due to humanizing landscapes? Discuss.

    Linkage: The PYQ examines changing monsoon patterns and the factors affecting rainfall variability in India. The article discusses how the emerging Super El Niño could weaken the southwest monsoon, alter rainfall distribution, intensify heatwaves and interact with climate change to reshape India’s monsoon behaviour.