Statement I:
In January, in the Northern Hemisphere, the isotherms bend equatorward while crossing the landmasses, and poleward while crossing the oceans.
Statement II:
In January, the air over the oceans is warmer than that over the landmasses in the Northern Hemisphere.
Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements?
India’s southwest monsoon rainfall deficit widened to 35%, with Central India recording a 61% deficit, as the monsoon stalled before reaching Mumbai. The Centre has placed around 150 to 200 districts under priority monitoring and directed States to prepare crop-wise contingency plans.
Key Highlights
All-India rainfall deficit: 35%.
Regional deficits: Northwest India: +5%, East & Northeast India: -43%, Central India: -61%, and Southern Peninsula: -14%
Monsoon reached Kerala on 4 June, but its advance weakened near Mumbai.
Around 150 to 200 districts under priority monitoring.
Government encouraging a shift towards cotton and pulses.
Reservoir storage stood at 30.4% of capacity, compared to 25.1% average during previous El Niño years.
Why has the Monsoon Stalled?
Anticyclonic circulation north of Mumbai blocked monsoon progression.
Influence of mid-latitude westerly systems.
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in an unfavourable phase.
Next monsoon pulse may strengthen with a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal.
El Niño Concerns
El Niño: Periodic warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that generally suppresses the Indian monsoon.
U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): Issued El Niño advisory on 11 June. 63% probability of a very strong El Niño by winter.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO):80% probability of El Niño developing between June and August.
India Meteorological Department (IMD):
Seasonal rainfall forecast revised from 92% to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
Assigned a 60% probability of a deficient monsoon, the most pessimistic pre-season forecast since 2015.
No positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) expected to offset El Niño effects.
Significance
Threatens kharif sowing and agricultural output.
May increase food inflation and rural distress.
Necessitates timely contingency planning and climate-resilient agriculture.
Highlights the need for improved water management and drought preparedness.
Value Addition
Long Period Average (LPA): Average rainfall during 1971-2020, used as the benchmark for monsoon forecasts.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean that can influence Indian monsoon rainfall.
[2017] With reference to ‘Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)’ sometimes mentioned in the news while forecasting Indian monsoon, which of the following statements is/are correct? 1. IOD phenomenon is characterised by a difference in sea surface temperature between tropical Western Indian Ocean and tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. 2. An IOD phenomenon can influence an El Nino’s impact on the monsoon. Select the correct answer using the code given below:
The emergence of Super El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean has become a major concern because it coincides with India’s crucial southwest monsoon season. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially confirmed the development of El Niño and warned that it is expected to strengthen further during the monsoon months. This
How Has El Niño Developed During the Current Monsoon Season?
IMD Confirmation: El Niño conditions have officially emerged in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Strengthening Trend: IMD expects the phenomenon to intensify further during the ongoing southwest monsoon season.
NOAA Assessment: The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) earlier confirmed El Niño emergence.
Peak Projection: NOAA projects the event to peak during November-January.
Intensity Forecast: The event may approach the “very strong” category.
ENSO Threshold
Niño 3.4 Region: El Niño is declared when sea surface temperature anomalies exceed +0.5°C in the Niño 3.4 region.
The Niño 3.4 region (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W) is the primary equatorial Pacific area used by scientists to monitor, define, and predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Current Reading: Weekly Niño 3.4 Index reached +0.7°C.
Eastern Pacific Warming: Temperature anomalies reached +2.1°C in the easternmost Pacific region.
What Makes the Current El Niño Different from Previous Events?
Emerging “Super El Niño” Concerns
NOAA Forecast: El Niño has officially formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is likely to strengthen significantly in the coming months.
Historical Significance: Scientists have projected that the current event could rank among the strongest El Niño episodes recorded since 1950.
Probability Estimate: NOAA estimates a 63% probability that the event will intensify into one of the largest El Niño events in the historical record.
Transition Phase: The current event follows the end of La Niña conditions earlier in 2026.
Global Warning: The UN Secretary-General António Guterres has described the phenomenon as an “urgent climate warning.”
What Lessons Can Be Drawn from the 2015-16 Super El Niño?
India’s Experience
Rainfall Deficit: India received only 86% of Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall.
Agricultural Stress: Several states experienced drought-like conditions.
Water Scarcity: Reservoir levels and groundwater recharge declined.
Key Lesson
ENSO Alone is Not Deterministic: Strong El Niño events do not always produce identical outcomes.
Role of Other Drivers: Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Eurasian snow cover and regional ocean temperatures also influence monsoon performance.
Conclusion
The emerging El Niño highlights the growing interaction between natural climate variability and global warming. With risks of weaker monsoons, heatwaves, food insecurity and extreme weather events, India must strengthen climate-resilient agriculture, early warning systems, water management and disaster preparedness to reduce vulnerability and build long-term resilience.
Value Addition
Year
Characteristics
Global Impact
1982-83
One of strongest recorded
Droughts, floods, crop losses
1997-98
Extreme warming
Major global weather disruptions
2015-16
Strongest of recent decades
Global temperature records broken
2026-27*
Potential Super El Niño
Risk of hottest year in recorded history
Positive vs Negative IOD
Positive IOD
Negative IOD
Warmer western Indian Ocean
Warmer eastern Indian Ocean
Supports Indian monsoon
Weakens monsoon
Can offset El Niño impact
Can worsen El Niño impact
PYQ Relevance
[UPSC 2015] How far do you agree that the behavior of the Indian monsoon has been changing due to humanizing landscapes? Discuss.
Linkage: The PYQ examines changing monsoon patterns and the factors affecting rainfall variability in India. The article discusses how the emerging Super El Niño could weaken the southwest monsoon, alter rainfall distribution, intensify heatwaves and interact with climate change to reshape India’s monsoon behaviour.
A massive dust storm recently affected Churu, Hanumangarh, Sri Ganganagar, Bikaner, Nagaur, Didwana-Kuchaman, Alwar and Sikar in Rajasthan, drawing attention to the critical role of the Aravalli Range in shielding the Indo-Gangetic Plains from Thar Desert dust. Scientists warn that degradation of the Aravallis due to mining, deforestation and land-use change is allowing more dust to reach Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, even during less intense storms.
What are the features of the Aravallis Range?
The Aravalli Range is one of the oldest surviving fold mountain systems on Earth. It serves as a vital ecological and climate-regulating spine across northwestern India.
Location and Extent
Length: The range stretches approximately 670 to 700 kilometres.
Alignment: It runs in a distinct south-west to north-east direction.
States Covered: The range begins near Delhi, passes through southern Haryana and Rajasthan, and terminates near Ahmedabad in Gujarat.
Geological Significance
Age: Formed during the Precambrian era (roughly 1.7 to 2.5 billion years ago), it predates the Himalayas by more than a billion years.
Evolution: It was originally an immense mountain chain, potentially as tall as the modern Himalayas. Over eons, wind and water weathered it down into discontinuous, residual hills and ridges.
Composition: The range consists of highly resistant metamorphic and igneous rocks, including quartzite, granite, schist, and gneiss
Key Peaks and Drainage
Highest Point: Guru Shikhar on the Mount Abu massif in Rajasthan, standing at 1,722 metres (5,650 feet).
Major Rivers: The western slopes give rise to the Luni River (which drains into the Rann of Kutch) and the Sabarmati River. The eastern slopes feed the Banas River, a major tributary of the Chambal-Yamuna system.
How do the Aravallis act as a natural shield against the Thar Desert dust?
Dust Interception Mechanism
Obstacle Dunes: Large sand deposits located on western slopes intercept dust-laden winds originating from the Thar Desert.
Agricultural Expansion: Contributes to habitat modification and soil degradation.
What is the current state of degradation in the Aravalli ecosystem?
Forest Survey Findings
Hill Loss: Assessment found that 31 out of 128 Aravalli hills in Rajasthan had disappeared due to anthropogenic pressures.
Topographic Alteration: Significant reduction observed in hill systems between 200 and 600 metres above sea level.
Affected Regions
Naraina
Kalwar
Kotputli
Jhalana
Sariska
These areas have witnessed substantial ecological disturbance.
Government Assessment
Aravalli Restoration Framework: Identified mining, deforestation, urbanisation, construction activities, land-use change, pastoral pressures and encroachments as major causes of degradation.
What are the environmental and climatic consequences of Aravalli degradation?
Air Quality Impacts
Dust Intrusion: Increased transport of desert dust towards Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.
Particulate Pollution: Worsens PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations.
Public Health Risks: Raises respiratory and cardiovascular disease burden.
Climate Impacts
Rainfall Modification: Dust aerosols influence cloud formation and precipitation dynamics.
Regional Climate Effects: Alter atmospheric circulation and radiation balance.
Soil Conservation: Reduces erosion and dust generation.
Institutional Coordination
Inter-State Cooperation: Facilitates coordinated conservation across Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and Gujarat.
Integrated Monitoring: Strengthens environmental surveillance using remote sensing and GIS.
Climate Adaptation
Nature-Based Solutions: Enhances resilience against desertification and dust storms.
Green Buffer Development: Supports long-term air quality management.
Conclusion
The Aravalli Range is not merely a geological feature but a critical ecological barrier that protects northern India from desert dust, air pollution and land degradation. Its continuing degradation due to mining, deforestation and unplanned development threatens the environmental security of Rajasthan, Delhi and the wider Indo-Gangetic Plains, making landscape restoration and sustainable management an urgent policy priority.
PYQ Relevance
[UPSC 2020] The process of desertification does not have climatic boundaries. Justify with examples
Linkage: The PYQ tests understanding of desertification, land degradation and the wider ecological impacts of environmental change beyond arid regions. The article shows how degradation of the Aravalli Range is enabling Thar Desert dust to spread into Delhi and the Indo-Gangetic Plains, illustrating that the effects of desertification can extend far beyond desert areas.
With reference to the public Sector Undertaking in India, consider the following statements :
1. Minerals and Metals Trading Corporation of India Limited is the largest non-oil importer of the country.
2. Project and Equipment Corporation of India Limited is under the Ministry of Industry.
3. One of the objectives of Export Credit Guarantee Corporation of India Limited is to enforce quality control and compulsory pre-shipment inspection of various exportable commodities
Which of these statements is/are correct?
Assertion (A): Areas lying within five to eight degrees latitude on either side of the equator receive rainfall throughout the year.
Reason (R): High temperatures and high humidity cause convectional rain to fall mostly in the afternoons near the equator.
Assertion (A): Unlike temperate forests, the tropical rain forests, if cleared, can yield productive farmland that can support intensive agriculture for several years even without chemical fertilizers.
Reason (R): The primary productivity of the tropical rain forest is very high when compared to that of the temperate forests.
Assertion (A): The amount of moisture in the atmosphere is related to latitude.
Reason (R): The capacity to hold moisture in the form of water vapour is related to temperature.