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Subject: Global Groupings and Conventions

Important International institutions, agencies and fora- their structure, mandate.

  • What is the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)?

    Non-alignment is an old concept today, and India has adopted an approach of “issue-based alignment”, according to External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.

    Try this question for mains:

    Q.“The gradual exit of the US from institutional geopolitics has created an ocean of opportunity for small nations”. Discuss.

    What is the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)?

    • The NAM is a forum of 120 developing world states that are not formally aligned with or against any major power bloc.
    • The group was started in Belgrade, Yugoslavia in 1961.
    • After the UN, it is the largest grouping of states worldwide.

    Its formation

    • NAM emerged in the context of the wave of decolonization that followed World War II.
    • It was created by Yugoslavia’s President, Josip Broz Tito, India’s first PM, Jawaharlal Nehru, Egypt’s second President Gamal Abdel Nasser, Ghana’s first president Kwame Nkrumah, and Indonesia’s first President, Sukarno.
    • All five leaders believed that developing countries should not help either the Western or Eastern blocs in the Cold War.
    • As a condition for membership, the states of the NAM cannot be part of a multilateral military alliance (such as the NATO) or have signed a bilateral military agreement with one of the “big powers” involved in Great Power conflicts.
    • However, its idea does not signify that a state ought to remain passive or even neutral in international politics.

    Its relevance today

    • One of the challenges of the NAM in the 21st century has been to reassess its identity and purpose in the post-Cold War era.
    • The movement has continued to advocate for international cooperation, multilateralism, and national self-determination, but it has also been increasingly vocal against the inequities of the world economic order.
    • On the contrary, from the founding of the NAM, its stated aim has been to give a voice to developing countries and to encourage their concerted action in world affairs.

    The geopolitics of opportunity

    • Non-alignment was a term of a particular era and geopolitical landscape. One aspect was independence, which remains a factor of continuity for India.
    • The consequences of global shifts, including the US and the assertiveness of China, are opening spaces for middle powers like India, Japan, the EU and others.

    US repositioning has impacted everyone

    • The consequence of repositioning of the US, that the big umbrella is now smaller than it used to be, has allowed many other countries to play more autonomous roles.
    • India needs to take more “risks”, as the world expected it to take a more proactive stance on various issues including connectivity, maritime security, terrorism, climate change and terrorism.

  • India should believe in the EU

    India and the EU have many things in common. And there are many areas in which both can expand the cooperation. This article explores commonalities and the areas which offer the scope for enhancing the cooperation. 

    Common interests

    • Both aim to enhance strategic autonomy and their global standing.
    • Diversifying strategic value chains is also a common interest.
    • Both seek to address the issue of climate change on an urgent basis.

    Economic ties with the EU

    • The EU is India’s largest trading partner accounting for €80 billion worth of trade in goods in 2019.
    • This is equal to 11.1% of total Indian trade.
    • The EU is also the biggest foreign investor, with €67.7 billion worth of investments made in 2018.
    • Which is equal to 22% of total FDI inflows.

    Scope for improving the economic ties

    • The EU’s investments in China amounted to €175.3 billion (2018).
    • So, India could succeed in attracting EU investment that might be moving out of China.
    • To attract this outflowing investment, India must address the mutual trust deficit.
    • Enhanced business cooperation can help both the EU and India diversify their strategic value chains.
    • Increasing people’s mobility and connectivity is another area that can create opportunities for innovation and growth.

    Talks on FTA

    • Both sides need to move further on the Free Trade Agreement.
    • A new study from the European Parliament estimates the impact of an EU-India trade agreement between €8 billion and €8.5 billion.
    • The study also mentions additional potential gains from enhanced coordination on the provision of global public goods, such as environmental standards.

    Cooperation on climate change

    • Under the new industrial strategy, the Green Deal, the EU has set an ambitious target to be carbon-emission neutral by 2050.
    • If the EU and India succeed in transforming into carbon-neutral economies by 2050, we all would gain from the investment.

    Strategic partnership with EU

    • The Indo-Pacific region is becoming contentious, so India should capitalise on its geopolitical leverage there.
    • Cooperation with like-minded, democratic powers can support this effort, especially towards assertive competitors like China.
    • The EU as a whole offers more to India than the strongest bilateral relations with individual EU member state.
    • New Delhi must learn how to maximise benefits from this strategic partnership.
    • The disruption caused by COVID-19 has been the occasion for the EU to prove its worth.
    • “Next-generation EU proposal” submitted by the European Commission has economic as well as geopolitical implications.
    • The proposal shows that the ties that bind the EU extend well beyond treaties and individual members’ self-interest.
    • The EU champions the rules-based international order, so the EU and India must act to promote sustainable reform of multilateral institutions starting from the WTO.

    Consider the question “India-EU ties with many common interests assume significance as rule-based order is being challenged by the rise of exceptionalism. Comment.”

    Conclusion

    A strong partnership would help both the EU and India become global decision-makers and tackle the challenges caused by the disruption of global order collectively.

  • International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR)

    United Nations (UN) Special Rapporteurs have made public their third communication forwarded to India expressing concern over alleged excessive use of force, ill-treatment during arrests and detentions.

    Practice question for mains:

    Q.There is an urgent need for reforming the criminal justice system in India in light of rising cases of custodial torture and killings. Comment.

    What is the issue?

    The UN urged the Indian government to conduct a prompt and impartial investigation into the allegations of arbitrary killings, torture and ill-treatment and to prosecute suspected perpetrators under articles 6 and of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), and articles 7 and 12 of the Committee Against Torture (CAT).

    What are the conventions cited by the UN?

    1) International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR)

    • The ICCPR is a multilateral treaty adopted by UN General Assembly Resolution on 16 December 1966, and in force from 23 March 1976.
    • The covenant commits its parties to respect the civil and political rights of individuals, including the right to life, freedom of religion, freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, electoral rights and rights to due process and a fair trial.
    • As of September 2019, the Covenant has 173 parties and six more signatories without ratification.
    • It is part of the International Bill of Human Rights, along with the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR) and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR).
    • It is monitored by the UN Human Rights Committee (a separate body to the UN Human Rights Council).

    2) United Nations Convention Against Torture (UNCAT)

    • The UNCAT is an international human rights treaty, under the review of the UN and was adopted in 1984.
    • It aims to prevent torture and other acts of cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment around the world.
    • The convention requires states to take effective measures to prevent torture in any territory under their jurisdiction and forbids states to transport people to any country where there is reason to believe they will be tortured.
    • Since the convention’s entry into force, the absolute prohibition against torture and other acts of cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment has become accepted as a principle of customary international law.

    3) The Committee against Torture (CAT)

    • It is a body of human rights experts that monitors implementation of the Convention by State parties.
    • The Committee is one of eight UN-linked human rights treaty bodies.
    • All state parties are obliged under the Convention to submit regular reports to the CAT on how rights are being implemented.
    • Upon ratifying the Convention, states must submit a report within one year, after which they are obliged to report every four years.
    • The Committee examines each report and addresses its concerns and recommendations to the State party in the form of “concluding observations.”
    • Under certain circumstances, the CAT may consider complaints or communications from individuals claiming that their rights under the Convention have been violated.

  • In an uncertain world a seat at the UNSC

    As a non-permanent member of the UNSC for the next two years, India will have to navigate through a tumultuous world. Anti-terrorism will be top priority for India.

    India at UNSC

    • India will be back in the United Nations Security Council for a two-year term beginning January 1, 2021.
    • Two-year term will be a critical time in the history of the UN.
    • It is hoped that by then COVID-19 will have subsided, a U.S. President will have been elected.
    • And the contours of a new world order may have emerged.

    How elections take place

    • The basic contest for the non-permanent seats takes place in the respective regional groups and their sub-groups.
    • Voting in the General Assembly is to fulfil the requirement of countries having to secure a two-thirds majority of the member states.
    • But regional endorsement is becoming difficult.
    • Last time, it was Kazakhstan which vacated the place for India.
    • This time, it was Afghanistan. India could not have got the endorsement without such gestures from friendly countries.

    What will be India’s priorities as a member of UNSC

    • India will continue to provide leadership and a new orientation for a reformed multilateral system.
    • How far the UN will be able to reform itself in the new situation remains uncertain.
    • The UN did not succeed in either defining terrorism or in adopting the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism.
    • Counter-terrorism will be one of the highest priorities for India at the UNSC.

    Permanent member of India issue

    • India’s election as a non-permanent member has understandably ignited the hope that its quest for permanent membership.
    • Nothing is farther from the truth.
    • Seeking to amend the Charter to add new permanent members is difficult task.
    • None of the proposals has the possibility of securing two-thirds majority of the General Assembly and the votes of the five permanent members.
    • A majority of the UN members are against the privileges of the permanent members, particularly the veto.
    • India’s performance in the Council will not lead to its elevation to permanent membership as the opposition to any expansion is not India-specific.

    Role of India as non-permanent member

    • The non-permanent members have a collective veto over every resolution in the Council.
    • As a part of collective veto, India will have a higher profile at the UN for the next two years
    • Permanent members can prevent the adoption of resolutions by themselves through veto.
    • But they need at least nine votes to get a resolution passed.
    • India will also have a rare peep into the consultations chamber of the UNSC, which is closed to non-members of the Council.
    • India will get involved in many issues in which it may not have any direct interest.
    • Since India does not have a veto, it shall have to proceed cautiously not to offend anyone.

    Consider the question “India has been chosen as the non-permanent member of the UNSC and will be there at the critical time in the history of the UNSC. What should be India’s priority and approach as a member of the UNSC?”

    Conclusion

    India’s mission in New York has earned a reputation that it is next only to the permanent members in influence. But whether it will be able to deal with traditional challenges in novel ways will depend on the turns and twists in an uncertain world.

  • UN Arms Trade Treaty (ATT)

    China will join a global pact to regulate arms sales that has been rejected by the United States.

    The New START, INF, Open Skies and now the ATT …. Be clear about the differences of these treaties. For example- to check if their inception was during cold war era etc.

    What is the Arms Trade Treaty?

    • The Arms Trade Treaty is a multilateral treaty that regulates the international trade in conventional weapons. It entered into force on 4th December 2014.
    • The ATT is an attempt to regulate the international trade of conventional weapons for the purpose of contributing to international and regional peace; reducing human suffering; and promoting co-operation, transparency, and responsible action by and among states.
    • 105 states have ratified the treaty, and a further 32 states have signed but not ratified it.
    • India has abstained from voting for this Treaty

    Highlights of the treaty

    ATT requires member countries to keep records of international transfers of weapons and to prohibit cross-border shipments that could be used in human rights violations or attacks on civilians. The treaty would ensure that no transfer is permitted if there is a substantial risk that it is likely to:

    • be used in serious violations of international human rights or humanitarian law, or acts of genocide or crimes against humanity;
    • facilitate terrorist attacks, a pattern of gender-based violence, violent crime, or organized crime;
    • violate UN Charter obligations, including UN arms embargoes;
    • be diverted from its stated recipient;
    • adversely affect regional security; or
    • seriously impair poverty reduction or socioeconomic development.

    China’s agenda at ATT

    • Beijing saying it is committed to efforts to “enhance peace and stability” in the world.
    • It comes after the US announced plans last year to pull the United States out of the agreement which entered into force in 2014.
    • The US Senate never ratified the 2013 Arms Trade Treaty after former president Barack Obama endorsed it, and Trump has said he would revoke his predecessor’s signature.

    Why has India abstained?

    • From the beginning of the ATT process, India has maintained that such a treaty should make a real impact on illicit trafficking in conventional arms and their illicit use especially by terrorists and other unauthorized and unlawful non-state actors.
    • India has also stressed consistently that the ATT should ensure a balance of obligations between exporting and importing states.
    • However, the ATT is weak on terrorism and non-state actors (undoubtedly Pakistan) and these concerns find no mention in the specific prohibitions of the Treaty.
    • Further, India cannot accept that the Treaty is used as an instrument in the hands of exporting states to take unilateral force majeure measures against importing states parties without consequences.

    Also read:

    U.S. set to exit the ‘Open Skies Treaty’ Copy

  • India gets re-elected as Non-permanent Member of UNSC

    India gets re-elected as Non-permanent Members of UNSC with 184 out of the 192 valid votes polled in its favour.

    Practice question for mains:

    Q. United Nations is in need of structural reforms suiting to the needs of present times. Discuss.

    What are ‘non-permanent seats’ at the UNSC?

    • The UNSC is composed of 15 members: five permanent members — China, France, Russian Federation, the US, and the UK — and 10 non-permanent members who are elected by the General Assembly.
    • The non-permanent members are elected for two-year terms — so every year, the General Assembly elects five non-permanent members out of the total 10.
    • Even if a country is a “clean slate” candidate and has been endorsed by its group, it still needs to secure the votes of two-thirds of the members present and voting at the General Assembly session — which is a minimum of 129 votes, if all 193 member states participate.

    Sharing of seats

    • These 10 seats are distributed among the regions of the world: five seats for African and Asian countries; one for Eastern European countries; two for Latin American and Caribbean countries; and two for Western European and Other Countries.
    • Of the five seats for Africa and Asia, three are for Africa and two for Asia.
    • Also, there is an informal understanding between the two groups to reserve one seat for an Arab country.
    • The Africa and Asia Pacific group takes turns every two years to put up an Arab candidate.
    • Elections for terms beginning in even-numbered years select two African members, and one each within Eastern Europe, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean.
    • Terms beginning in odd-numbered years consist of two West European and Other members, and one each from the Asia Pacific, Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean.

    Current members as on today

    • The current non-permanent members of the Security Council are Belgium, Dominican Republic, Germany, Indonesia, and South Africa, all of whose terms end this year; and Estonia, Niger, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Tunisia, and Vietnam, whose terms end in 2021.
    • India begins its term at the beginning of 2021 and will hold the position until the end of 2022.

    Has India been in the UNSC earlier?

    • India’s term on the 15-member Council will be it’s eighth.
    • India has earlier been a non-permanent member of the Security Council in 1950-51, 1967-68, 1972-73, 1977-78, 1984-85, 1991-92 and 2011-12.
    • For the 2011-12 terms, India won 187 of 190 votes after Kazakhstan stood down from its candidacy.
    • Unlike Africa, which has formalized a system of rotation of its three seats, the Asia Pacific grouping has often seen contests for seats. In 2018, there was a contest between the Maldives and Indonesia.
    • On the occasions when there is a contest, the elections for non-permanent seats can go on for several rounds.
    • Back in 1975, there was a contest between India and Pakistan, which went into eight rounds, with Pakistan finally winning the seat. And in 1996, India lost a contest to Japan.

    Significance

    • Terming India’s winning of a non-permanent seat of the UN Security Council one of its best performances” ever, the Union government said.
    • The strong support by almost the entire U.N. membership demonstrates the goodwill that India enjoys in the U.N. and the confidence that the international community has reposed in India.
    • India’s EAM gave India’s overall objective during its forthcoming UNSC tenure as an acronym ‘NORMS’ — New Orientation for a Reformed Multilateral System.
    • NORMS includes the push for expanding the UNSC permanent membership.

    Back2Basics: United Nations Security Council

    • The UNSC is one of the six principal organs of the United Nations and is charged with the maintenance of international peace and security.
    • Its powers include the establishment of peacekeeping operations, the establishment of international sanctions, and the authorization of military action through Security Council resolutions.
    • It is the only UN body with the authority to issue binding resolutions to member states.
    • The Security Council consists of fifteen members. Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, and the United States—serve as the body’s five permanent members.
    • These permanent members can veto any substantive Security Council resolution, including those on the admission of new member states or candidates for Secretary-General.
    • The Security Council also has 10 non-permanent members, elected on a regional basis to serve two-year terms. The body’s presidency rotates monthly among its members.

  • Multilateralism post COVID-19

    What is the future of multilateralism? This is the question we have come across many times recently. Given the chaos that we are witnessing in the global order, multilateral seems to be headed for either collapse or capture by China. But, the author of this article suggests that it would be a mistake to consider the choice as binary. Between the collapse and the capture, there are many stakeholders working for its sustenance. So, multilateralism will endure.

    International institutions performing below par

    • The COVID-19 outbreak has placed all international institutions under a magnifying glass.
    • By any measure, most have performed below par.
    • Such is the caution espoused that multilateralism today seems to have reverted to its version 0.1.
    • The General Assembly now passes resolutions through no-objection procedure.
    • The Security Council has been found wanting in no small measure.
    • The 75th session’s ‘leaders week’ runs the risk of being reduced to a video playback session.

    Pursuit of change by threatening to leave

    • It is true that functioning of multilateral institutions requires reform.
    • They need to adapt to new realities.
    • However, the pursuit of change by threatening to leave multilateral institutions is a phenomenon we witnessed only during the period of the League of Nations.
    • One state followed another in bidding goodbye, until the League’s final demise.

    Why post Second World War institutions survived departures

    • The post Second World War multilateral institutions have survived such departures.
    • The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) in Paris and the Human Rights Council in Geneva have survived the departure of the U.S.
    • The United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) in Vienna continues despite the withdrawal of the U.S. and many others.
    • The World Health Organization (WHO), notwithstanding its visible shortcomings, will survive U.S. threats.
    • The reasons are simple.
    • Multilateral organisations serve desperately felt global needs of the vast membership.
    • The pandemic has reinforced the desire for greater global cooperation amongst most states.

    So, will the current multi-lateral order survive China’s onslaught?

    •  It is true that Chinese nationals head four multilateral organisations.
    • It is also true that Chinese nationals have failed in campaigns to head UNESCO and the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO).
    • Despite contributing nearly 10% of the UN’s budget, Chinese nationals are not exactly over-represented in terms of staff positions.
    • China has certainly risen up the multilateral pantheon and is able to better promote its interests.
    • It has warded off attacks against it in multilateral fora, at times with the aid of the heads of these organisations.
    • However, it is yet to display an ability to set the multilateral agenda and dominate the discourse on an array of issues, in the manner that the U.S. once indispensably did.
    • China’s flagship venture, the Belt and Road Initiative, remains only on the fringes of multilateral fora.
    • Neither in monetary terms nor in substantive inputs are there portents of a ‘Chinese takeover’.
    • Amidst this, multilateral bodies are populated by a plethora of small and middle states quietly working to restore equilibrium, when the balance tends to shift.
    • The capture of the existing multilateral order by a new hegemon is antithetical to the ethos of multilateralism.
    • Multilateralism thrives on the notion of the Lilliputians tying up Gulliver — old or new.

    Evolving multilateralism is not a choice between collapse and capture

    • Between collapse and capture, there are other pathways.
    • Multilateral architecture places a premium on structures over functions, processes over substance.
    • It slows down the change of any sort.
    • The same processes that have stalled change in the past will militate against a takeover in the future.
    • Does that mean that multilateralism will meander meaninglessly?
    • It will meander, but perhaps not meaninglessly.
    • The ‘pluri-laterals’ and the emerging ‘mini-laterals’ each have their place in terms of international agenda-setting, but global norm-setting requires inclusivity that they lack.

    Opportunity for India

    • Being able to shape the discourse at an incipient stage is a good perch to be on.
    • Issue-specific ‘coalitions of the willing’ are catalysts.
    • As a growing power, India needs to avail of such avenues.
    • However, by themselves, these will not do justice to the depth and variety of India’s interests and our stakes in global cooperation.
    • Also, they are not holistic solutions in ensuring global acceptance of norms.

    Understanding the essence of multilateralism

    • Responses of states during the COVID-19 crisis point to more emphasis on sovereign decision making than before.
    • The imprimatur for acting on behalf of the global community is not going to be available easily.
    • On myriad issues, from sustainable development to the environment, from climate change to pandemics and cyberspace to outer space, the demands for ‘nothing about us without us’ are likely to increase.
    • Since stakeholders perceive that their stakes have risen, they will call for enhanced engagement.
    • Convening such stakeholders in pursuit of global goals is the essence of multilateralism.

    Consider the question “In the world afflicted by Covid, multilateralism seems to be headed for collapse or capture by a hegemon. Critically examine.”

    Conclusion

    We need to patiently promote reforms while building partnerships to avail opportunities which may arise for more fundamental change. We need to bide our time without hiding our intent.

  • SIPRI Report on Nuclear Stockpiles

    All nations that have nuclear weapons continue to modernize their nuclear arsenals, while India and China increased their nuclear warheads in the last one year, according to a latest report by Swedish think tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

    About SIPRI

    • Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) is an international institute based in Sweden, dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament.
    • Established in 1966, the Stockholm based SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public.

    Practice question for Mains:

    Q.“Nuclear disarmament of the world seems a distant dream”. Comment.

    Nuclear arsenals are on rise in ‘thy neighbourhood’

    • China is in the middle of a significant modernization of its nuclear arsenal.
    • It is developing a so-called nuclear triad for the first time, made up of new land and sea-based missiles and nuclear-capable aircraft.
    • China’s nuclear arsenal had gone up from 290 warheads in 2019 to 320 in 2020, while India’s went up from 130-140 in 2019 to 150 in 2020.
    • Pakistan’s arsenal was estimated to be between 150-160 in 2019 and has reached 160 in 2020.
    • Both China and Pakistan continue to have larger nuclear arsenals than India.

    A general decline across the globe

    • Together with the nine nuclear-armed states — the U.S., Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea — possessed an estimated 13,400 nuclear weapons at the start of 2020.
    • This marked a decrease from an estimated 13,865 nuclear weapons at the beginning of 2019.
    • The decrease in the overall numbers was largely due to the dismantlement of old nuclear weapons by Russia and the U.S., which together possess over 90% of the global nuclear weapons.

    Major issue in reporting: Low levels of disclosure

    • The availability of reliable information on the status of the nuclear arsenals and capabilities of the nuclear-armed states varied considerably, the report noted.
    • The U.S. had disclosed important information about its stockpile and nuclear capabilities, but in 2019, the administration ended the practice of publicly disclosing the size of its stockpile.
    • The governments of India and Pakistan make statements about some of their missile tests but provide little information about the status or size of their arsenals, the report said.

    New START seems to ‘STOP’ very soon

    • The U.S. and Russia have reduced their nuclear arsenals under the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) but it will lapse in February 2021 unless both parties agree to prolong it.
    • However, discussions to extend the New START or negotiate a new treaty made no progress with the U.S.’s insistence that China must join any future nuclear arms reduction talks, which China has categorically ruled out.
    • The deadlock over the New START and the collapse of the 1987 Soviet–U.S. Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty) in 2019 suggest that the era of bilateral nuclear arms control agreements between Russia and the U.S. might be coming to an end.
    • Russia and the U.S. have already announced extensive plans to replace and modernize their nuclear warheads and delivery systems.
    • Both countries have also given new or expanded roles to nuclear weapons in their military plans and doctrines, which marks a significant reversal of the post-Cold War trend towards the gradual marginalisation of nuclear weapons.

    Back2Basics: INF Treaty

    • Under the INF treaty, the US and Soviet Union agreed not to develop, produce, possess or deploy any ground-based ballistic and cruise missiles that have a range between 500 and 5,500 km.
    • It exempted the air-launched and sea-based missile systems in the same range.
    • The INF treaty helped address the fears of an imminent nuclear war in Europe.
    • It also built some trust between Washington and Moscow and contributed to the end of the Cold War.

    New START Policy

    • The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) pact limits the number of deployed nuclear warheads, missiles and bombers and is due to expire in 2021 unless renewed.
    • The treaty limits the US and Russia to a maximum of 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers, well below Cold War caps.
    • It was signed in 2010 by former US President Barack Obama and then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
    • It is one of the key controls on superpower deployment of nuclear weapons.
    • If it falls, it will be the second nuclear weapons treaty to collapse under the leadership of US President Donald Trump.

  • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

    The UN nuclear watchdog IAEA’s governing body began meeting as a row brews over Iran’s refusal to allow access to two sites where nuclear activity may have occurred in the past.

    Practice question for mains:

    Q. Discuss the role of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in enhancing nuclear accountability of the world.

    Concerns over Iran

    • The latest row over access comes as a landmark deal between Iran and world powers in 2015 continues to unravel.
    • If IAEA passes a resolution critical of Iran, it would be the first of its kind since 2012.
    • Even though the two sites are not thought to be key to Iran’s current activities, the agency says it needs to know if past activities going back almost two decades have been properly declared and all materials accounted for.

    About IAEA

    • The IAEA is an international organization that seeks to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy and to inhibit its use for any military purpose, including nuclear weapons.
    • The IAEA has its headquarters in Vienna, Austria. It was established as an autonomous organisation on 29 July 1957.
    • Though established independently of the UN through its own international treaty, the IAEA reports to both the UN General Assembly and UN Security Council.

    Functions of IAEA

    • The IAEA serves as an intergovernmental forum for scientific and technical co-operation in the peaceful use of nuclear technology and nuclear power worldwide.
    • The programs of the IAEA encourage the development of the peaceful applications of nuclear energy, science and technology, provide international safeguards against misuse of nuclear technology and nuclear materials, and promote nuclear safety (including radiation protection) and nuclear security standards and their implementation.

  • Expanding the G7

    There has been a call for expansion of G7 by the U.S. President. Against this backdrop, this article examines the historical background in which the group emerged. But a lot has changed since. So, it would be appropriate for G7 to adjust to the new reality. But what would be the focus of a new mechanism? What are the areas in which India would be interested? All such questions are answered in this article.

    Call for expansion of G7 and China’s objection

    • Recently, the U.S. President proposed the expansion of G7 to G10 or G11,  with the inclusion of India, South Korea, Australia and possibly Russia.
    • Elaborating this logic, the White House Director of Strategic Communications said the U.S. President wanted to include other countries, including the Five Eyes countries.
    • Five Eye is an intelligence alliance comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States.
    • The U.S. also stressed said the expanded group should talk about the future of China.
    • A Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs official immediately reacted, labelling it as “seeking a clique targeting China”.

    Should India care about China’s objection if invited to join?

    • China’s objection to an expanded G7 is no reason for India to stay away from it, if invited to join.
    • India has attended several G7 summits earlier too, as a special invitee for its outreach sessions.
    • India’s Prime Minister was guest invited to Biarritz, France to the G7 summit last year, along with other heads of government.

    The historical background of G7

    • The G7 emerged as a restricted club of the rich democracies in the early 1970s.
    • The quadrupling of oil prices just after the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, when  OPEC imposed an embargo against Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, and the United States, shocked their economies.
    • Although the French were spared the embargo, the chill winds of the OPEC action reverberated around the world.
    • So, French President invited the Finance Ministers of five of the most developed members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the United States, Germany, Japan, Italy, and the United Kingdom, for an informal discussion on global issues.
    • This transformed into a G7 Summit of the heads of government from the following year with the inclusion of Canada in 1976.
    • And the European Commission/Community (later Union) joined as a non-enumerated member, a year later.
    • On the initiative of U.S. President Bill Clinton and British Prime Minister Tony Blair, the G7 became the G8, with the Russian Federation joining the club in 1998.
    • This ended with Russia’s expulsion following the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

    Declining share G7 and rising of E7 in world GDP

    • When constituted, the G7 countries accounted for close to two-thirds of global GDP.
    • According to the 2017 report of the accountancy firm, PwC, “The World in 2050”, they now account for less than a third of global GDP on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis.
    • And less than half on market exchange rates (MER) basis.
    • The seven largest emerging economies (E7, or “Emerging 7”), comprising Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey, account for over a third of global GDP on purchasing power parity (PPP) terms.
    • And over a quarter on MER basis.

    Predictions for India

    • India’s economy is already the third largest in the world in PPP terms, even if way behind that of the U.S. and China.
    • By 2050, the PwC Report predicts, six of the seven of the world’s best performing economies will be China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, and Russia.
    • Two other E7 countries, Mexico and Turkey, also improve their position.
    • It projects that India’s GDP will increase to $17 trillion in 2030 and $42 trillion in 2050 in PPP terms, in second place after China, just ahead of the United States.
    • This is predicated on India overcoming the challenge of COVID-19, sustaining its reform process and ensuring adequate investments in infrastructure, institutions, governance, education and health.

    Limitations of G7

    • The success or otherwise of multilateral institutions are judged by the standard of whether or not they have successfully addressed the core global or regional challenges of the time.
    • The G7 failed to head off the economic downturn of 2007-08.
    • This failure led to the rise of the G20.
    • In the short span of its existence, the G20 has provided a degree of confidence, by promoting open markets, and stimulus, preventing a collapse of the global financial system.
    • The G7 also failed to address the contemporary issues, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, the challenge of the Daesh, and the crisis of state collapse in West Asia.
    • It had announced its members would phase out all fossil fuels and subsidies, but has not so far announced any plan of action to do so.
    • And their coal fired plants emit “twice more CO2 than those of the entire African continent”.

    Turmoil in West Asia and failure of Europe to act

    • Three of the G7 countries, France, Germany, and the U.K., were among the top 10 countries contributing volunteers to the ISIS.
    • West Asia is in a greater state of turmoil than at any point of time since the fall of the Ottoman Empire.
    • This turmoil has led to a migrants crisis.
    • Migrant crisis persuaded many countries in Europe to renege on their western liberal values, making the Mediterranean Sea a death trap for people fleeing against fear of persecution and threat to their lives.

    So, to deal with the unprecedented challenge, we need new institution

    • The global economy has stalled and COVID-19 will inevitably create widespread distress.
    • Nations need dexterity and resilience to cope with the current flux, as also a revival of multilateralism, for they have been seeking national solutions for problems that are unresolvable internally.
    • Existing international institutions have proven themselves unequal to these tasks.
    • A new mechanism might help in attenuating them.
    • It would be ideal to include in it the seven future leading economies, plus Germany, Japan, the U.K., France, Mexico, Turkey, South Korea, and Australia.
    •  The 2005 ad hoc experiment by Prime Minister Tony Blair in bringing together the G7 and the BRICS countries was a one-off.

    What should be the focus of this new institution?

    • A new international mechanism will have value only if it focuses on key global issues.
    • A related aspect is how to push for observing international law and preventing the retreat from liberal values on which public goods are predicated.
    • Global public health and the revival of growth and trade in a sustainable way -that also reduces the inequalities among and within nations- would pose a huge challenge.

    What should be India’s priority in new institution?

    • India would be vitally interested in three: 1) international trade, 2) climate change, 3) the COVID-19 crisis.
    • Second order priorities for India would be cross-cutting issues such as counter-terrorism and counter-proliferation.
    • An immediate concern is to ensure effective implementation of the 1975 Biological Weapons Convention .
    • And the prevention of any possible cheating by its state parties by the possible creation of new microorganisms or viruses by using recombinant technologies.
    • On regional issues, establishing a modus vivendi with Iran would be important to ensure that it does not acquire nuclear weapons and is able to contribute to peace and stability in Afghanistan, the Gulf and West Asia.
    • The end state in Afghanistan would also be of interest to India.
    • And also the reduction of tensions in the Korean Peninsula and the South China Sea.

    Consider the question “There has been a clamour for expanding G7 and India is being considered as one of the prospective candidates in the expanded group. In light of this examine the challenges and opportunities for India if it gets entry into the expanded group.”

    Conclusion

    The decaying influence in geopolitics and declining share in the world GDP calls for the formation of the new institution. IF and when that institution comes into being India should try to address its immediate concern with the help of new mechanism based on values.