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Subject: International Relations

  • How India’s Gati Shakti Plan can have an impact beyond its borders

    Context

    The Gati Shakti National Master Plan will have an important economic multiplier effect at home, it must also be leveraged to have an external impact by aligning it with India’s regional and global connectivity efforts.

    Main components of the Gati Shakti National Master Plan

    • The Gati Shakti plan has three main components, all focused on domestic coordination.
    • Increase information sharing: The plan seeks to increase information sharing with a new technology platform between various ministries at the Union and state levels.
    • Reduce logistics’ costs: It focuses on giving impetus to multi-modal transportation to reduce logistics’ costs and strengthen last-mile connectivity in India’s hinterland or border regions.
    • Analytical tool: The third component includes an analytical decision-making tool to disseminate project-related information and prioritise key infrastructure projects.
    • This aims to ensure transparency and time-bound commitments to investors.

    How Gati Shakti Plan can strengthen India’s economic ties with its neighbours

    • The plan will automatically generate positive effects to deepen India’s economic ties with Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka, as well as with Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean region.
    • India’s investment in roads, ports, inland waterways or new customs procedures generate positive externalities for these neighbours, who are keen to access the growing Indian consumer market.
    • Any reduction in India’s domestic logistics costs brings immediate benefits to the northern neighbour, given that 98 per cent of Nepal’s total trade transits through India and about 65 per cent of Nepal’s trade is with India.
    • In 2019, trade between Bhutan and Bangladesh was eased through a new multimodal road and waterway link via Assam.
    • The new cargo ferry service with the Maldives, launched last year, has lowered the costs of trade for the island state.
    • And under the South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation Programme, India’s investments in multimodal connectivity on the eastern coast is reconnecting India with the Bay of Bengal and Southeast Asia through integrated rail, port and shipping systems.
    • Whether it is the alignment of a cross-border railway, the location of a border check post, or the digital system chosen for customs and immigration processes, India’s connectivity investments at home will have limited effects unless they are coordinated with those of its neighbours and other regional partners.
    • While India recently joined the Transports Internationaux Routiers (TIR) convention, which facilitates cross-border customs procedures, none of its neighbouring countries in the east has signed on to it.

    Suggestions for Gati Shakti Plan to have maximum external effect

    • First, India will have to deepen bilateral consultations with its neighbours to gauge their connectivity strategies and priorities.
    • Given political and security sensitivities, India will require diplomatic skills to reassure its neighbours and adapt to their pace and political economy context.
    • A second way is for India to work through regional institutions and platforms. SAARC’s ambitious regional integration plans of the 2000s are now defunct, so Delhi has shifted its geo-economic orientation eastwards.
    • The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) has got new momentum, but there is also progress on the Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal (BBIN) Initiative.
    • Finally, India can also boost the Gati Shakti plan’s external impact by cooperating more closely with global players who are keen to support its strategic imperative to give the Indo-Pacific an economic connectivity dimension.
    • This includes the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank, but also Japan, the US, Australia, EU and ASEAN.

    Conclusion

    Gati Shakti plan must also leveraged to have an external impact by aligning it with India’s regional and global connectivity efforts.

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  • Delhi Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan

    India is hosting the National Security Advisors (NSAs) level ‘Delhi Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan’ this week.

    About the dialogue

    • It will be headed by NSA Ajit Doval.
    • It aims to organise a conference of regional stakeholders and important powers on the country’s current situation and the future outlook.
    • Invitations are sent to Afghanistan’s neighbours such as Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, and other key players including Russia, and China.

    Pakistan’s response

    • Not surprisingly, Pakistan has denounced India’s invitation. China too followed Pakistan’s footsteps.
    • Had Pakistan consented to come, it would have been the first high-level visit to India from Pakistan since 2016.
    • Pakistani position reflects its mindset on Afghanistan, where it has played a conspiring role.
    • It reflects its mindset of viewing Afghanistan as its protectorate.

    Response from the other countries

    • India’s invitation has seen an overwhelming response.
    • Central Asian countries as well as Russia and Iran have confirmed participation.

    Significance of the dialogue

    • This will be the first time that all Central Asian countries, and not just Afghanistan’s immediate neighbours, would be participating in this format.
    • The enthusiastic response is a manifestation of the importance attached to India’s role in regional efforts to promote peace and security in Afghanistan.
    • If peace is established in Afghanistan, it could become a major trading hub as a corridor of connectivity in the heart of Asia.

    When you are not at the table, you are on the menu… this conference is India’s attempt to set the table, be on the table, and decide the agenda.

    India’s motive for the conference

    • This is India’s attempt to secure for itself a seat at the table to decide the future course of action on Afghanistan.
    • It underlines the need to actively engage with the world to protect India’s security interests.
    • Until the fall of Kabul, India had not engaged with the Taliban through publicly-announced official channels.

    India’s expectations form Taliban Govt

    • Taliban should not allow safe havens for terror on its soil.
    • The administration should be inclusive, and the rights of minorities, women, and children must be protected.

     

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  • What is Freedom of Air?

    A flight from Srinagar to Sharjah had to avoid flying over Pakistan after the country denied permission to use its airspace for the said flight. With this refusal, Pakistan has violated the first freedom of air.

    Freedom of Air

    • Following the Chicago Convention in 1944, the signatories decided to set rules that would act as fundamental building blocks to international commercial aviation.
    • As a part of these rules, initially, six ‘freedoms of air’ were decided.
    • These freedoms or rights still operate within the ambit of multilateral and bilateral treaties.
    • It allows to grant airlines of a particular country the privilege to use and/or land in another country’s airspace.

    ‘Freedoms’ accorded

    1. Flying over a foreign country without landing
    2. Refuel or carry out maintenance in a foreign country without embarking or disembarking passengers or cargo
    3. Fly from the home country and land in a foreign country
    4. Fly from a foreign country and land in the home country
    5. Fly from the home country to a foreign country, stopping in another foreign country on the way
    6. Fly from a foreign country to another foreign country, stopping in the home country on the way
    7. Fly from a foreign country to another foreign country, without stopping in the home country
    8. Fly from the home country to a foreign country, then on to another destination within the same foreign country
    9. Fly internally within a foreign country

    Why did Pakistan deny use of its airspace?

    • There has been no official explanation given by Pakistan authorities.
    • Indian has approached Pakistan to raise the issue of the refusal to use its airspace for the said flight.
    • Notably, other Indian airlines flying to west Asia from airports such as Delhi, Lucknow, etc have not been barred from using Pakistan airspace.
    • This also raises the concern of Pakistan violating the first freedom of air.

     

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  • AUKUS could rock China’s boat in the Indo-Pacific

    Context

    The trilateral security agreement between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States (AUKUS) continues to be in the news.

    Implications for ASEAN

    • There is also the matter of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) disunity over the emergence of AUKUS.
    •  While AUKUS is clearly an attempt by the U.S. to bolster regional security, including securing Australia’s seaborne trade, any sudden accretion in Australia’s naval capabilities is bound to cause unease in the region.
    • Even though Australia has denied that AUKUS is a defence alliance, this hardly prevents China from exploiting ASEAN’s concerns at having to face a Hobson’s choice amidst worsening U.S.-China regional rivalry.
    •  AUKUS is based on a shared commitment of its three members to deepening diplomatic, security and defence cooperation in the Indo-Pacific to meet the challenges of the 21st century.
    • Even though this has not been stated explicitly, the rise of China, particularly its rapid militarisation and aggressive behaviour, is undoubtedly the trigger.

    Relations of AUKUS members with China

    • The AUKUS joint statement clearly acknowledges that trilateral defence ties are decades old, and that AUKUS aims to further joint capabilities and interoperability.
    • For three nations, their relations with China have recently been marked by contretemps.
    • Australia, especially, had for years subordinated its strategic assessment of China to transactional commercial interests.
    • Much to China’s chagrin, its policy of deliberately targeting Australian exports has not yielded the desired results.
    • Instead of kow-towing, the plucky Australian character has led Canberra to favour a fundamental overhaul of its China policy.
    • The transfer of sensitive submarine technology by the U.S. to the U.K. is a sui generis arrangement based on their long-standing Mutual Defence Agreement of 1958.
    • Elements in the broader agenda provide opportunities to the U.S., the U.K. and Australia to engage the regional countries.

    AUKUS engagement with regional countries

    • All three nations will also play a major role in U.S.-led programmes such as Build Back Better World, Blue Dot Network and Clean Network, to meet the challenge of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
    • The Quad and AUKUS are distinct, yet complementary. Neither diminishes the other.
    • Whereas the Quad initiatives straddle the Indian and the Pacific Oceans, a Pacific-centric orientation for AUKUS has advantages.
    • Such a strategy could potentially strengthen Japan’s security as well as that of Taiwan in the face of China’s mounting bellicosity.
    • Shifting AUKUS’s fulcrum to the Pacific Ocean could reassure ASEAN nations.
    • It could also inure AUKUS to any insidious insinuation that accretion in the number of nuclear submarines plying the Indo-Pacific might upset the balance of power in the Indian Ocean.

    Conclusion

    There are limited options in the economic arena with China already having emerged as a global economic powerhouse. AUKUS, though, provides an opportunity to the U.S. to place proxy submarine forces to limit China’s forays, especially in the Pacific Ocean.

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  • We need greater global cooperation

    Context

    Our thinking about the international system is focussed on a new era of great power competition. An assertive China is seeking to refashion the international order and exercise greater regional hegemony.

    Refashioning the international order

    • Recently, Secretary Antony Blinken outlined the US approach to China: “Competitive when it should be, collaborative when it can be, and adversarial when it must be.”
    • This pretty much describes the approach of every country in the world to this geopolitical moment.
    • The big question is whether the competitive and adversarial dynamics are now so deep that the space for “collaboration” is diminishing fast.
    • There is now bipartisan consensus in the US that China needs to be contained; just as China is convinced that the US will not only not tolerate China’s further rise.

    Great power competition between the US and China

    • Two dynamics were supposed to counteract the risks of great power competition.
    • Global economic interdependence: The first was global economic interdependence.
    • Global trade has rebounded to its pre-pandemic levels.
    • The logic of interdependence is now under severe ideological stress.
    • Interdependence has not led to greater convergence on political values or a more open global political order.
    • Common challenges fostering global cooperation: The second dynamic counteracting competition was the idea that common challenges like climate change, the pandemic and the risks posed by technology will foster greater global cooperation.
    •  All the global crises that should have been occasions for global cooperation have become the sites for intensifying global competition.

    Climate and global health: Indicator of lack of global cooperation

    • It is hard to convince anyone that most countries of the world were willing to treat the pandemic as a global public health crisis.
    • The shift in the climate change discourse is about intensifying technological competition and maintaining national economic supremacy, rather than solving a global problem.
    •  It is not entirely clear that all the innovations induced by this competitive dynamic will, in fact, limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
    • It also leaves the question of a modicum of justice in the international order entirely unresolved.
    • We have also learnt over the last couple of decades that the international system, and all global public goods, including security, can be made extremely vulnerable even by small groups carrying a sense of grievance.
    • So, the distribution of technology, finance, and developmental space will matter.
    • India, in the context of what other countries are doing, takes a very well-judged stance at the international level.
    • But it is difficult not to wonder whether a country that lets its citizens breathe the foulest air, and cannot get its head around a solvable problem of stubble burning, can project seriousness.
    • So, climate and global public health, rather than acting as a spur to global cooperation are going to be symptoms of a deep pathology.

    Global risks and declining multilateral institutions

    • Areas where global risks are increasing include-Cyber threats, the possible risks of unregulated technology, whether in artificial intelligence or biological research, competition in space, a renewed competition in nuclear weapons and an intensifying arms race.
    •  In not a single one of these areas is there a serious prospect of any country thinking outside of an adversarial nationalist frame.
    • The old multilateral system was undergirded by, and partially an instrument for, US power.
    • The term multilateral has also been deeply damaged by a cynical use, where it simply refers to a group of countries rather than a single or a couple of countries acting together.
    • It is high time the term be used only in a context where there is agreement on global rules or an architecture to genuinely solve a global public goods problem.
    • These may still reflect power differentials, but at least they are oriented to problem-solving at a global level.
    • In this sense, one would be hard-pressed to find any genuinely multilateral institutions left.

    Consider the question “What are the challenge facing global order in the present context? Suggest the measures to preserve the global order aimed towards greater global cooperation.”

    Conclusion

    The real choice for the world is not just navigating between China and the United States. It is fundamentally between an orientation that is committed to global problem-solving rather than just preserving national supremacy.

  • Trade and climate, the pivot for India-U.S. ties

    Context

    The fate of the grand strategic ambitions of the Indo-US relationship may depend substantially on how well they collaborate in two areas to which their joint attention is only belatedly turning — climate and trade.

    Importance of climate change and trade to India-US partnership

    • Strategic partnerships capable of re-shaping the international global order cannot be based simply on a negative agenda.
    • Shared concerns about China provide the U.S.-India partnership a much-needed impetus to overcome the awkward efforts for deeper collaboration that have characterised the past few decades.
    • What risks being lost is a reckoning with how interrelated climate and trade are to securing U.S.-India leadership globally, and how their strategic efforts can flounder without sincere commitment to a robust bilateral agenda on both fronts.

    India-US collaboration on climate change and challenges

    • India and the U.S. are collaborating under the Climate and Clean Energy Agenda Partnership.
    • In parallel, there are hopeful signs that they are now prioritising the bilateral trade relationship by rechartering the Trade Policy Forum. 
    • At COP26 in Glasgow India announced a net zero goal for 2070, it has called for western countries to commit to negative emissions targets.
    • Challenges: India’s rhetoric of climate justice is likely to be received poorly by U.S. negotiators, particularly if it aligns with China’s messaging and obstructs efforts to reach concrete results.

    Collaboration on trade

    • The failure of the U.S. and India to articulate a shared vision for a comprehensive trade relationship raises doubts about how serious they are when each spends more time and effort negotiating with other trading partners.
    • Protectionist tendencies infect the politics of both countries these days, and, with a contentious U.S. mid-term election a year away, the political window for achieving problem-solving outcomes and setting a vision on trade for the future is closing fast.

    Climate-trade inter-relationship

    • Climate and trade are interrelated in many ways.
    • If governments, such as India and the U.S., coordinate policies to incentivise sharing of climate-related technologies and align approaches for reducing emissions associated with trade, the climate-trade inter-relationship can be a net positive one.
    • India and the U.S. could find opportunities to align their climate and trade approaches better, starting with a resolution of their disputes in the World Trade Organization (WTO) on solar panels.
    • The two countries could also chart a path that allows trade to flow for transitional energy sources, such as fuel ethanol.
    • Shared strategic interests will be undermined if India and the U.S. cannot jointly map coordinated policies on climate and trade.
    • The most immediate threat could be the possibility of new climate and trade tensions were India to insist that technology is transferred in ways that undermine incentives for innovation in both countries or if the U.S. decides that imports from India be subject to increased tariffs in the form of carbon border adjustment mechanisms or “CBAMs”.

    Conclusion

    Concerted action on both the climate and trade fronts is mutually beneficial and will lend additional strength to the foundation of a true partnership for the coming century.

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  • India launches Infrastructure for the Resilient Island States (IRIS)

    The PM has launched the Initiative for the Resilient Island States (IRIS) for developing infrastructure of small island nations.

    What is IRIS?

    • The Small Island Developing States or SIDS face the biggest threat from climate change.
    • To mitigate this, India’s space agency ISRO will build a special data window for them to provide them timely information about cyclones, coral-reef monitoring, coast-line monitoring etc. through satellite.
    • IRIS will be a part of the India-UK Coalition for Disaster Resilient infrastructure (CDRI).

    About CDRI

    • The CDRI is an international coalition of countries, UN agencies, multilateral development banks, the private sector etc. that aim to promote disaster-resilient infrastructure.
    • Its objective is to promote research and knowledge sharing in the fields of infrastructure risk management, standards, financing, and recovery mechanisms.
    • It was launched by the Indian PM Modi at the 2019 UN Climate Action Summit in September 2019.

    Focus areas

    • CDRI’s initial focus is on developing disaster-resilience in ecological, social, and economic infrastructure.
    • It aims to achieve substantial changes in member countries’ policy frameworks and future infrastructure investments, along with a major decrease in the economic losses suffered due to disasters.

    Try this PYQ:
    Q.Consider the following statements:
    Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) to Reduce Short Lived Climate Pollutants is a unique initiative of G20 group of countries
    The CCAC focuses on methane, black carbon and hydrofluorocarbons.
    Which of the above statements is/are correct?
    (a) 1 only
    (b) 2 only
    (c) Both 1 and 2
    (d) Neither 1 nor 2

    Post your answers here.

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  • Energy cooperation as the backbone of India-Russia ties

    Context

    With its abundant energy sources and appetite for trade diversification, Russia could be an ultimate long-term partner of India as it tries to diversify its trade relations.

    Energy partnership

    • Indian Prime Minister in a virtual address at 6th Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Russia’s Vladivostok said that “India-Russia energy partnership can help bring stability to the global energy market.”
    • Indian and Russian Energy Ministers announced that the countries’ companies have been pushing for greater cooperation in the oil and gas sector beyond the U.S.$32 billion already invested in joint projects.
    • India’s Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri referred to Russia as the largest investor in India’s energy sector.
    • One of the examples of cooperation between the two countries in energy transformation is the joint venture between India’s Reliance Industries Ltd. and Russia’s Sibur, the country’s largest petrochemicals producer.
    • Apart from accounting for most of the Indian butyl rubber market, Reliance Sibur Elastomers exports its products to Asia, Europe, the United States, Brazil and other countries.
    • A few years ago, Rosneft invested U.S.$12.9 billion in India’s second-largest private oil refiner, Essar Oil, renamed Nayara Energy, marking it one of the most significant foreign investments in years.
    • Partnership in renewable: In efforts to transition to green energy, India has recently achieved a significant milestone of completing the countrywide installation of 100 gigawatts of total installed renewable energy capacity, excluding large hydro.
    • A recent Deloitte report has forecasted that India could gain U.S.$11 trillion in economic value over the next 50 years by limiting rising global temperatures and realising its potential to ‘export decarbonization’.
    • Unknowns of climate change and threats of a new pandemic suggest that the country should accelerate its energy transition. Russia, one of the key global players across the energy market, could emerge as an indispensable partner for such a transition.
    • Partnership in nuclear energy: Russian companies have been involved in the construction of six nuclear reactors in the Kudankulam nuclear power project at Tamil Nadu.
    • India and Russia secure the potential of designing a nuclear reactor specifically for developing countries, which is a promising area of cooperation.
    • India’s nuclear power generation capacity of 6,780 MW may increase to 22,480 MW by 2031, contributing to the country’s efforts to turn to green energy.

    Way forward

    • In September, almost all of Russia’s major energy companies were interested in projects in India, Russia’s Energy Minister said at the Vladivostok forum in September, adding that he sees prospects for energy cooperation in all areas.
    • However, the current bilateral exchange rate needs to accelerate for India to grasp its potential from energy transformation.

    Conclusion

    To meet its growing energy demand and succeed in green transformation, India needs approximately U.S.$500 billion of investments in wind and solar infrastructure, grid expansion, and storage to reach the 450 GW capacity target by 2030. Therefore, more efforts are needed to expand cooperation with such partners as Russia.

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  • China’s new land border law and Indian concerns

    China has recently passed a new land law for the “protection and exploitation of the country’s land border areas”.

    Land Border Law: Key Takeaways

    • The law states that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of China are sacred and inviolable.
    • It asks the state to take measures to safeguard territorial integrity and land boundaries and guard against and combat any act that undermines these.
    • The state can take measures to strengthen border defence, support economic and social development as well as opening-up in border areas.
    • It seeks to improve public services and infrastructure in such areas, encourage and support people’s life and work there.

    Other features

    • In effect, this suggests a push to settle civilians in the border areas.
    • The law also asks the state to follow the principles of equality, mutual trust, and friendly consultation, handle land border related-affairs with neighbouring countries.

    China’s land borders

    • China shares its 22,457-km land boundary with 14 countries including India, the third-longest after the borders with Mongolia and Russia.
    • Unlike the Indian border, however, China’s borders with these two countries are not disputed.
    • The only other country with which China has disputed land borders is Bhutan (477 km).

    Why is it significant for India?

    • China claims up to 90,000 square kilometres in Arunachal Pradesh in the eastern sector.
    • It has illegally occupied 38,000 square kilometres of Aksai Chin in the western sector of Jammu and Kashmir.
    • While recent tensions in the western sector have been centred on Ladakh, both sides have lately clashed in Uttarakhand as well.

    A signal to India

    • The law is not meant specifically for the border with India.
    • However, this could create hurdles in the resolution of the 17-month-long military standoff at LAC.
    • There is also a clear distinction that PLA will do border management but it will make negotiations a little more difficult.

     

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  • A ‘bubbles of trust’ approach to globalisation

    Context

    An asymmetric globalisation favouring China allowed Beijing to attain power. It is now using that power to undermine liberal democratic values around the world.

    What is Globalization?

    Globalization is a process of increasing interdependence, interconnectedness and integration of economies and societies to such an extent that an event in one part of the globe affects people in other parts of the world.

    OR

     Globalization is a process of interaction and integration among the people, organizations, and governments of different nations, a process driven by international trade and investment and aided by information technology.

    Asymmetric globalisation

    • The Chinese market was never open to foreign companies in the way foreign markets are to Chinese firms.
    • This is particularly true in the information and communications technology sector: foreign media, technology and software companies have always been walled out of Chinese markets.
    • Meanwhile, Chinese firms rode on the globalisation bandwagon to secure significant market shares in open economies.

    Global retreat from globalisation and role of Quad

    • We are currently witnessing a global retreat from the free movement of goods, services, capital, people and ideas.
    • But this should not be understood as a reaction to globalisation itself, but of its skewed pattern over the past four decades.
    • The Quad countries – Japan, India, Australia and the U.S. – have an opportunity to change tack and stop seeing engagement with China through the misleading prism of free trade and globalisation.
    • It will be to their advantage to create a new form of economic cooperation consistent with their geopolitical interests.
    • Indeed, without an economic programme, the Quad’s geopolitical and security agenda stand on tenuous foundations.

    Economies inside bubbles of trust

    • Policies of self-reliance: The popular backlash against China – exacerbated by the economic disruption of the pandemic – is pushing Quad governments towards policies of self-reliance.
    • But while reorienting and de-risking global supply chains is one thing, pursuing technological sovereignty is inherently self-defeating.
    • Worse still, inward-looking policies often acquire a life of their own and contribute to geopolitical marginalisation.
    • There is a better way.
    • A convergence of values and geopolitical interests means Quad countries are uniquely placed to envelop their economies inside bubbles of trust, starting with the technology sector.
    • The idea of ‘bubbles of trust’ offers a cautious middle path between the extremes of technological sovereignty and laissez-faire globalisation.
    •  Unlike trading blocs, which tend to be insular and exclusive, bubbles tend to expand organically, attracting new partners that share values, interests and economic complementarities.
    • Such expansion will be necessary, as the Quad cannot fulfil its strategic ambitions merely by holding a defensive line against authoritarian power.

    Way forward

    • The U.S. is a global leader in intellectual property, Japan in high-value manufacturing, Australia in advanced niches such as quantum computing and cyber security, and India in human capital.
    • This configuration of values, interests and complementary capabilities offers unrivalled opportunities.
    • The Quad’s Critical and Emerging Technology Working Group, announced in March 2021, is well placed to develop the necessary ‘bubbles of trust’ framework, which could be adopted at the next Quad summit.
    • To be successful the Working Group must seek to strengthen geopolitical convergences, increase faith in each member state’s judicial systems, deepen economic ties and boost trust in one another’s citizens.
    • There are fundamental differences between authoritarian and liberal-democratic approaches to the information age.
    • The Quad cannot allow differences of approach on privacy, data governance, platform competition and the digital economy to widen.

    Conclusion

    This agenda cannot be about substituting China. Rather, the approach would allow Quad countries to manage their dependencies on China while simultaneously developing a new vision for the global economy.

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