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Subject: International Relations

  • EU unveils Global Gateway Project

    The European Union has unveiled a project called ”Global Gateway” that is worth 300 billion euros ($340 billion). The project is being seen as a response to China’s Belt and Road strategy.

    Global Gateway Project

    • It is the initiative Build Back Better World and the European Global Gateway that are reinforcing each other.
    • The bloc will mobilize the financial aid in public and private infrastructure investment around the world.
    • It is an offshoot of a plan by G7 countries to offer developing countries an alternative to Belt and Road.
    • The project will probably extend the remit of the European Fund for Strategic Investment, or create a similar institution, which can act as a guarantor for riskier investments in the ‘Global South’.
    • The EU has indicated it especially wants to compete for infrastructure development projects in Africa.

    About Belt and Road Initiative

    • The Belt and Road is a flagship project of Chinese President Xi Jinping that was launched in 2013.
    • Beijing has invested $139.8 billion in the project which is the centerpiece of Chinese foreign policy.
    • BRI aims to develop land and sea infrastructure to better connect China to Asia, Europe and Africa for trade and development, and it has found many partners around the world.

     

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  • WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC)

    The World Health Assembly (WHA) took the historic decision to form a global treaty to “strengthen pandemic prevention, preparedness and response”.

    Significance of the launch

    • The launch of putting together this accord is the second such initiative taken under Article 19.
    • The first initiative was the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), which came into effect in 2005.

    About FCTC

    • The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) is the world’s first modern-day global public health treaty.
    • It is also the first treaty negotiated under the auspices of the World Health Organization (WHO).
    • The treaty entered into force in February 2005.
    • It was signed by 168 of the 192 WHO member states and more than 180 WHO member states have become parties to the convention.

    Highlights of the FCTC

    The FCTC provides an internationally coordinated response to combating the tobacco epidemic and sets out specific steps for governments addressing tobacco use, including:

    • Adopting tax and price measures to reduce tobacco consumption
    • Banning tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship
    • Creating smoke-free work and public spaces
    • Putting prominent health warnings on tobacco packages
    • Combating illicit trade in tobacco products

     

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  • Beijing’s aggressive regional policies and its implications

    Context

    One of the many consequences of China’s assertive posture in Asia has been the emergence of geopolitical coalitions to limit the prospects for Beijing’s regional dominance.

    Two new coalitions forcing China rethink

    • Quad and AUKUS: Two new coalitions that have got a lot of political attention are the Quadrilateral framework involving Australia, India, Japan and the US, and the AUKUS, which brings together Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States.
    • Until recently, China was quite contemptuous of the new political formations.
    • It had compared the Quad to “seafoam” that is here now but gone in a second.
    • China’s dismissive attitude has now yielded place to denunciation.

    US’s policy forcing China to rethink

    • Two big factors are behind China’s rethinking.
    • Consensus in the US on Challenging China: One was the surprising emergence of American domestic political consensus on challenging China.
    • Beijing believed that Donald Trump was an exception to the longstanding US policy of deeper economic integration with China and sustained political engagement. But Biden has simply reinforced Trump’s strategy.
    • US making alliances critical element of China policy: Trump thought that alliances are a burden on US taxpayers.
    •  Biden, in contrast, has made alliances a critical element of his China strategy.
    • The idea was to create “situations of strength” vis-a-vis China by rebuilding US alliances and developing new coalitions.
    • In Asia, the Biden administration moved quickly to strengthen the traditional security ties with its allies in northeast Asia — Japan and South Korea.
    • Elevating the Quad to leaders-level: It also elevated the Quad to the leaders-level within weeks after Biden took charge and had a physical summit in Washington six months later.
    • AUKUS: It also announced the AUKUS.
    • Biden travelled to Europe in June this year to revitalise the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.
    • Summit with Russia: Biden also decided on an early summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin that took place in Geneva at the end of his European tour.
    • Rebalancing relations: Biden’s team believed that the greatest strength of the US was its wide network of allies and partners.
    • And that mobilising them was the key to rebalancing relations with China.

    How China is making alliances and partnerships?

    • While China’s economic reach is now global and deep, political and military alliances have not been part of Beijing’s tradition.
    • Relations with Russia at peak: Beijing’s ties with Moscow have never been as close as they are.
    • Relations with N. Korea and Pakistan: China also has strong alliance-like relations with North Korea and Pakistan.
    • But there can be little comparison though between the kind of strengths that American allies bring to the table with those of China’s partners.

    Is Asian geopolitical structure turning in China’s favour?

    • Beijing was betting on the proposition that the Asian geopolitical structure was turning, irretrievably, in China’s favour.
    • This is based on a number of propositions.
    • Location of the US: America, located far from Asia, will have trouble overcoming the tyranny of geography in a conflict with China.
    • The economic and military power of China: China’s hard power — both economic and military — relative to the US is growing rapidly and shifting the local balance of power in its favour.
    • Location of China: The proximity of China and Asian regional integration have made Beijing the most important economic partner for the whole region.
    • Beijing believed that few Asian nations would want to spoil their commercial relations with China and align with Washington.
    • Power imbalance: The vast imbalance in military power between Beijing and its neighbours it presumed would dissuade most Asian states from considering armed confrontations with China
    • Breaking up coalition: China counted on the fact that it is easier to break up coalitions than build them.

    Implications of China’s aggressive policies

    • Making the US unfriendly prematurely: Chinese policies have driven the US towards an unanticipated internal consensus on containing Beijing.
    • Making a friendly America into an enemy prematurely could go down as one of Xi Jinping’s egregious strategic errors.
    • Driving regional countries towards the US: China’s aggressive regional policies are driving many countries like Australia, India, Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam, towards the US.
    • Neighbouring countries pursuing stronger national military capacities: While the military balance of power in Asia has certainly turned in China’s favour, it has not cowed down its neighbours.
    • Many are pursuing stronger national military capabilities to limit some of the threats from China.
    • Stoked nationalism: China, which never stops to emphasise its own nationalism, appears to have underestimated the depth of similar sentiment in other Asian states.
    • Today, it is driving many of China’s neighbours into the US camp.
    • It is America and not China that today talks about the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Asian nations.

    Consider the question “One of the many consequences of China’s assertive posture in Asia has been the emergence of geopolitical coalitions to limit Beijing’s regional dominance. Critically analyse.”

    Conclusion

    It has been quite fashionable in the West as well as in the East, to proclaim that China’s hegemony is inevitable, American decline is terminal, and Asian coalitions are unsustainable. Those conclusions are premature at best. For Xi Jinping has squandered many of China’s natural geopolitical advantages.

  • What is the Iran Nuclear Deal?

    As Iran has refused to hold direct talks with the U.S., European officials will shuttle between the Iranian and American delegations, exchanging talking points and seeking common ground over the nuclear deal.

    Do you know how the enmity between Iran and the US came into reality?  We hope you have watched the Argo (2012) movie for sure!

    Context

    • After a gap of five months, Iran, Russia, China and the European countries resumed negotiations in Vienna to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
    • The 2015 JCPOA agreement sought to cut Iran off a possible path to a nuclear bomb in return for lifting of economic sanctions.

    What is JCPOA?

    • The Iran nuclear agreement, formally known as the JCPOA is a landmark accord reached between Iran and several world powers, including the United States, in July 2015.
    • Under its terms, Iran agreed to dismantle much of its nuclear program and open its facilities to more extensive international inspections in exchange for billions of dollars’ worth of sanctions relief.

    Expected outcomes of the deal

    • Curb on nuclear program: Proponents of the deal said that it would help prevent a revival of Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
    • Increasing regional engagement: It would thereby reduce the prospects for conflict between Iran and its regional rivals, including Israel and Saudi Arabia.

    Background of the JCPOA

    • Iran had previously agreed to forgo the development of nuclear weapons as a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which has been in force since 1970.
    • However, after the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979, Iranian leaders secretly pursued this technology.
    • In 2007, U.S. intelligence analysts concluded that Iran halted its work on nuclear weapons in 2003 but continued to acquire nuclear technology and expertise.
    • Prior to the JCPOA, the P5+1 had been negotiating with Iran for years, offering its government various incentives to halt uranium enrichment.

    Issues with the deal

    (1) US withdrawal

    • The deal has been in jeopardy since President Donald Trump withdrew the US from it in 2018.
    • In retaliation for the US, Iran resumed some of its nuclear activities.

    (2) Iran’s insistence over sanctions removal

    • In 2021, President Joe Biden said the US will return to the deal if Iran comes back into compliance, though Iran’s leaders have insisted that Washington lift sanctions first.
    • Iran now has indicated that he will take a harder line than his predecessor in nuclear negotiations.

    Who are the participants?

    • The JCPOA, which went into effect in January 2016, imposes restrictions on Iran’s civilian nuclear enrichment program.
    • At the heart of negotiations with Iran were the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and Germany—collectively known as the P5+1.
    • The European Union also took part. Israel explicitly opposed the agreement, calling it too lenient.
    • Some Middle Eastern powers, such as Saudi Arabia, said they should have been consulted or included in the talks because they would be most affected by a nuclear-armed Iran.

    What did Iran agree to?

    • Nuclear restrictions: Iran agreed not to produce either the highly enriched uranium or the plutonium that could be used in a nuclear weapon.
    • Monitoring and verification:  Iran agreed to eventually implement a protocol that would allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog.

    What did the other signatories agree to?

    • Sanctions relief: The EU, United Nations, and United States all committed to lifting their nuclear-related sanctions on Iran. However, many other U.S. sanctions on Iran, some dating back to the 1979 hostage crisis, remained in effect.
    • Weapons embargo: The parties agreed to lift an existing UN ban on Iran’s transfer of conventional weapons and ballistic missiles after five years if the IAEA certifies that Iran is only engaged in civilian nuclear activity.

    How has the deal affected Iran’s economy?

    • Prior to the JCPOA, Iran’s economy suffered years of recession, currency depreciation, and inflation, largely because of sanctions on its energy sector.
    • With the sanctions lifted, inflation slowed, exchange rates stabilized, and exports—especially of oil, agricultural goods, and luxury items­—skyrocketed as Iran regained trading partners, particularly in the EU.
    • After the JCPOA took effect, Iran began exporting more than 2.1 million barrels per day (approaching pre-2012 levels, when the oil sanctions were originally put in place).

     

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  • Bilateral trade between India and Pakistan should be first step to normalising links

    Context

    The recent partial opening of land borders between India and Pakistan signals a thaw in the troubled relations between the two South Asian neighbours.

    How normalising relations with Pakistan help India?

    • Reduce India’s vulnerability to China: From the Indian standpoint, as a Centre for Policy Research report argues, a continuing freeze in relations with Pakistan will “enhance India’s external vulnerability to other actors, in particular, China”.
    • Impact on bilateral trade: After the Pulwama terror attack, bilateral trade between the two countries plummeted from around $2 billion in 2017-18 to a paltry $280 million in 2020-21 (April to February).

    Steps to normalise relations

    1] Pakistan needs to revoke suspension of trade with India

    • Pakistan needs to revoke the unilateral suspension of trade with India undertaken in August 2019 due to India’s decision to dilute Article 370.
    • Suspension against GATT and SAFTA: The trade suspension by Pakistan is inconsistent with the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) agreement — the two international law instruments that regulate trade between India and Pakistan.
    • GATT, as part of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), allows countries to adopt trade-restraining measures on certain grounds such as public health and conservation of exhaustible natural resources (Article XX) and for national security purposes (Article XXI).
    • Neither the WTO nor SAFTA permits a country to suspend trade with another member country on grounds that it disapproves a domestic law enacted by the latter.

    2] Pakistan needs to confer MFN status on India

    • Pakistan needs to reverse its practice of not according the most favoured nation (MFN) status to India.
    • MFN is a principle of non-discrimination in trade given in Article I of GATT.
    • Breach of GATT: Pakistan is in breach of Article I of GATT towards India since the formation of the WTO in 1995.

    3] India should restore Pakistan’s MFN status

    • India should restore Pakistan’s MFN status that it revoked after the Pulwama terror attack by hiking the tariff rates on all Pakistani imports to an unfeasible rate of 200 per cent.
    • Such a move by India will put the ball in Pakistan’s court.
    • If Pakistan fails to reciprocate, India should exert pressure on Islamabad by mounting a legal challenge.

    4] Explore the special trading arrangement under GATT

    • Article XXIV.11 allows India and Pakistan to enter into any special trading arrangement without fully complying with GATT conditions that typically apply to countries signing free trade agreements.
    • This merciful rule that only India and Pakistan enjoy, out of 160 odd WTO members, was incorporated in GATT to enable the two sides to overcome the economic hardships caused by Partition.

    Consider the question “How normalising trade relations will India and Pakistan? Suggest the steps both the countries need to take in this regard.” 

    Conclusion

    India should appreciate that the rise of China, not Pakistan, poses the graver threat. Strengthening bilateral trade can be an important lever towards establishing a working relationship with Pakistan.

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  • Places in news: Solomon Islands

    Australia has announced sending police, troops and diplomats to the Solomon Islands to help after anti-Government demonstrators.

    Solomon Islands

    • Solomon Islands is a sovereign country consisting of six major islands and over 900 smaller islands in Oceania, to the east of Papua New Guinea and northwest of Vanuatu.
    • Its capital, Honiara, is located on the largest island, Guadalcanal.
    • The country takes its name from the Solomon Islands archipelago, which is a collection of Melanesian islands that also includes the North Solomon Islands (a part of Papua New Guinea).
    • It excludes outlying islands, such as the Santa Cruz Islands and Rennell and Bellona.

     

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  • Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) with Bangladesh

    Union Home Minister has said that the Northeast States will be linked by road and railway to Bangladesh in a year or two under the historic Land Boundary Agreement (LBA).

    Land Boundary Agreement (LBA)

    • India and Bangladesh have signed the LBA in 2014 to ensure proper connectivity in the region.
    • The operationalization of LBA lays the way for the exchange of 162 enclaves under the control of either country as per the 1974 pact.
    • Under the Agreement, 111 border enclaves will be transferred to Bangladesh in exchange for 51 that will become part of India.
    • The agreement settles an old land boundary dispute which dates back to colonial times as India transfers 111 border enclaves to Bangladesh in exchange for 51 enclaves.
    • It also settles the question of citizenship for over 50,000 people residing under these enclaves.

    Why was such an agreement needed?

    • India and Bangladesh share a 4,096 km land boundary covering West Bengal, Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya and Mizoram.
    • This is the largest among the international boundaries that India shares with its neighbors.
    • On this boundary, some 50,000-100,000 people reside in so-called Chitmahals or Indo-Bangladeshi enclaves.
    • There are 102 Indian enclaves inside Bangladesh and 71 Bangladeshi ones inside India.
    • Inside those enclaves are also 28 counter-enclaves and one counter-counter-enclave, called Dahala Khagrabari.

    The inception of the agreement

    • For the first time, a vision to solve this issue had been enshrined in the Indira-Mujib pact of 1972.
    • Accordingly, the India-Bangladesh LBA was signed between the two countries in 1974.
    • However, this agreement need ratification from the parliaments of both countries as it involved the exchange of the territories.
    • While Bangladesh had ratified it as back as 1974 only, it was not ratified by the Indian parliament till 2014.
    • The 119th Amendment Bill 2013 sought to ratify the land boundary agreement between the two countries.

    Key features of the LBA

    • The LBA envisages a transfer of 111 Indian enclaves to Bangladesh in return for 51 enclaves to India.
    • The area transferred to India is less than that transferred by India to Bangladesh. In totality, India incurs a net loss in terms of area occupancy.
    • This remained a major concern of opposition from the north-eastern affected states and west Bengal.
    • Also, most of the area concerned is occupied by the tribals of the North-Eastern states and hence the swapping takes away their land rights leaving them more vulnerable.
    • Current Status of the Constitution (119th Amendment) Bill has been passed by the Parliament of India on 7th May 2015.
    • While India will gain 510 acres of land, ten thousand acres of land will notionally go to Bangladesh.
    • This legislation will redraw India’s boundary with Bangladesh by exchanging enclaves in Assam, West Bengal, Tripura and Meghalaya.

    Implications of the Agreement

    • It will secure the long-stranded boundary and enable to curb the illegal migration, smuggling and criminal acts across the border.
    • It would help those stateless citizens by granting them citizenship from their respective countries. It would help settle the boundary dispute at several points in Meghalaya, Tripura, Assam, and West Bengal.
    • It would improve the access to underdeveloped north-eastern states and would further enhance the developmental works in the region.
    • It would help to increase the connectivity with south-east Asia as part of India’s North-eastern policy.

     

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  • Australia’s controversial Religious Discrimination Bill

    Australian PM Scott Morrison has introduced a contentious piece of anti-discrimination legislation called the “Religious Discrimination Bill” in their parliament.

    What is the Bill about?

    • The bill aims to eliminate discrimination on the ground of religious beliefs or activities.
    • It will ensure Australians are protected from discrimination on the basis of religious belief or activity.
    • The timing of the introduction of this bill, ahead of the federal elections is being seen as an attempt by the Morrison government to target religious voters.

    What does the Religious Discrimination Bill say?

    • The Act makes it unlawful to discriminate against a person on the grounds of religious belief or activity in a range of areas of life including work, education, access to premises, and the provision of goods, services, and accommodation.
    • Discrimination is unlawful if it occurs, for example, because of a religious belief or activity that the person holds or engages in.
    • It is also unlawful if it occurs because of the person’s association with someone else who holds or engages in a religious belief or activity, regardless of whether or not they themselves hold or engage in a religious belief or activity.

    Contentious provisions

    • The bill also allows faith-based organizations such as religious schools to hire and enrol people from particular faiths.
    • The bill states that religious bodies can give preference, “in good faith, to persons who hold or engage in a particular religious belief or activity”.
    • It goes on to say that a religious body does not discriminate against a person under this Act by engaging, in good faith, in conduct that a person of the same religion as the religious body could reasonably consider.

    Because of this clause, the bill has alarmed some LGBTQI groups and some legal experts who say that the bill will discriminate against gay teachers and students.

    Criticisms

    • Some critics of the bill see it as a piece of legislation that is legalizing hate.
    • Some are questioning the government and asking for proof that people are discriminated against on the basis of religion in the country.
    • Further, there are also demands to protect gay students from discrimination.

     

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  • Dynamism in India-U.S. ties

    Context

    While there are regular interactions among officials at various levels and across sectors, as well as people-to-people engagement, there are no formal interactions between Members of Parliament in India and members of the U.S. Congress.

    US Congressional Delegation (CODEL) visit to India

    •  CODEL travels across the world during the periods when Congress takes a break from legislative work.
    • Interactions during these travels are important in shaping relations with foreign countries.
    • In November, a congressional delegation (CODEL) travelled to the Indo-Pacific Command countries, including the Philippines, Taiwan and India.
    • In New Delhi, the six-member delegation interacted with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, and representatives of the Dalai Lama.
    • The members of the delegation noted the “increasing convergence of strategic interests” between India and the U.S. and said they would like to “further enhance cooperation… to promote global peace and stability”.
    •  Mr. Modi appreciated the consistent support and constructive role of the U.S. Congress in deepening the India-U.S. comprehensive global strategic partnership.
    • Enhancing bilateral relationship on critical issues: Mr. Modi and CODEL exchanged views on enhancing the bilateral relationship and strengthening cooperation on contemporary global issues such as terrorism, climate change and reliable chains for critical technologies.
    • Demand for the presidential waiver for India: Two days after returning from his trip to India, CODEL member Senator Tommy Tuberville favoured India getting the presidential waiver under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.
    • Significance of CODEL visit: Members of the U.S. Congress play an important role in determining foreign policy, which at times is dictated by the demands of constituents.

    Way forward

    •  Despite the robustness in India-U.S. relations, there is no institutional communication or interaction between MPs in India and members of the U.S. Congress.
    • Establishment of India-US Parliamentary Exchange: The joint statement at the end of the 2+2 Dialogue in 2019 stated: “The Ministers looked forward to the establishment of India-US Parliamentary Exchange to facilitate reciprocal visits by Parliamentarians of the two countries”.
    • Indian Parliamentary Group: India can take it forward through the Indian Parliamentary Group, which acts as a link between the Indian Parliament and the various Parliaments of the world.
    • At present, there are eight Parliamentary Friendship Groups of India’s including Japan, Russia, China and the European Union.
    • The U.S. is absent from this list.

    Conclusion

    The significance of the CODEL visit is not lost in the U.S. as members of the U.S. Congress play an important role in determining foreign policy, which at times is dictated by the demands of constituents.

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  • China’s missile tests could have Sputnik-like effect

    Context

    On October 27 Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US, reacted to China testing its nuclear-capable hypersonic weapons system by drawing an analogy with a Sputnik moment.

    How US’s Ballistic Missile Defence led to the recent Sputnik moment

    •  Since the US withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty in 2002, both Russia and China have been wary of Washington’s Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) programme.
    • It undermines strategic stability: Missile defence is inherently destabilising — it undermines “strategic stability”.
    • A robust BMD would compromise the second strike capability of the adversary by neutralising the surviving incoming missiles in case of a near-decapitating first strike
    • Both Russia and China thus view the US BMD as undermining their deterrence and have sought ways to restore their retaliatory strike capability by investing in new technologies such as Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs).
    • HGVs can escape the missile defence systems.
    • HGVs fly at lower altitudes than ballistic missiles, which means they could potentially escape early warning systems, aided by the earth’s curvature.

    Implications of Chinese test

    • It can set off competition: The Chinese tests have the potential to set off an aggressive competition among the nuclear powers to modernise their nuclear arsenals and add new, potentially destabilising capabilities to their arsenal.
    • Global and regional arms race: In the present era of minimal arms control measures, the Chinese hypersonic missile system test will trigger an intense arms race both at the global and regional levels.
    • With the Chinese test, the US may be forced to expand its hypersonic programme and further modernise its missile defence systems.

    What should be the course of action for India

    • China’s nuclear-tipped hypersonic weapon systems, though not particularly India-focused, could nudge New Delhi to adopt two courses of action.
    • Missile program: First, accelerate its hypersonic missiles programme.
    • Develop missile defence system: Second, consider erecting an equally robust missile defence.
    • Chinese advancement in stealth technologies will drive New Delhi to seek similar capabilities but also develop effective countermeasures.
    • This can then set off a regional arms race, a sign that is not particularly encouraging for regional peace.

    Consider the question “Examine the implications of recent hypersonic missile test by China for the region and global arms race control efforts? What should be the course of action for India? “

    Conclusion

    China’s hypersonic missile test may not have come with a Sputnik-like surprise, but it has the potential to set off a post-Sputnik-like arms race that does not augur well for the strategic stability both at the global and regional level.

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    Back2Basics: Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs)

    • A hypersonic missile is a vehicle that achieves a speed five times faster than the speed of sound, crossing Mach 5.
    • These missiles travel at a speed of around 6,115 km per hour, with a combination of technology and manoeuvrability of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.

    Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS)

    • A Fractional Orbital Bombardment System is a warhead delivery system that uses a low earth orbit towards its target destination.
    • Just before reaching the target, it deorbits through a retrograde engine burn.