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Subject: International Relations

  • [24th June 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Pakistan’s role in the U.S.-West Asia calculus

    PYQ Relevance:

    [UPSC 2018] In what ways would the ongoing US-Iran Nuclear Pact Controversy affect the national interest of India? How should India respond to this situation?

    Linkage: This question directly addresses a central component of the “U.S.-West Asia calculus”—the US-Iran dynamic. The article explicitly states that the U.S. conducted military strikes against Iranian nuclear installations and that the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) was focused on the situation in West Asia and how to deter Iran with Pakistan’s support.

     

    Mentor’s Comment:  On June 22, U.S. President Donald Trump launched The USA recently carried out military attacks on three of Iran’s nuclear sites—an action that could influence the future of West Asia for a long time. on three of Iran’s nuclear sites—an action that could shape the future of West Asia for years. This decision may trigger a long-term conflict between the U.S. and Iran, but it also has major links to South Asia. Just days before the strikes, Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir had an unusual private lunch with President Trump at the White House—something rare for anyone who isn’t a head of state. This points to deeper strategic changes. At the same time, Pakistan is facing rising sectarian tensions, serious economic troubles, and higher defense spending. Its sudden border closure with Iran and growing support from the U.S. raise important questions about Pakistan’s new role in the Iran-Israel conflict and what it could mean inside the country.

    Today’s editorial looks at how the USA’s military strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites and Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir’s rare private lunch with President Trump could affect international relations. This is useful for GS Paper II (International Relations) in the UPSC mains exam.

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    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    The USA recently carried out military attacks on three of Iran’s nuclear sites—an action that could influence the future of West Asia for a long time.

    What could be the impact of a U.S. strike on Iran have on West Asia and the subcontinent?

    • Escalation of Conflict: The strike may trigger a prolonged confrontation between Iran and Western allies, increasing instability in West Asia. Eg: Past U.S. interventions in Iraq (2003) and Libya (2011) resulted in regime change but long-term chaosand extremist expansion.
    • Realignment of Regional Powers: Countries like Pakistan may shift alliances to support U.S. actions, potentially isolating Iran and affecting critical land-based trade routes. Eg: Pakistan closed its land border with Iran in June 2025, limiting Iran’s trade access to South Asia.
    • Security Tensions: U.S. engagement with Pakistan’s military leadership amid regional conflict could embolden Pakistan strategically, raising concerns for India.  

    Why is General Munir’s meeting with Trump strategically significant?

    • Geopolitical Signalling to India and Iran: The timing and optics of the meeting send a message to both India and Iran about Pakistan’s rising strategic relevance in U.S. calculations. Eg: Coinciding with Pakistan closing borders with Iran and India-Pak tensions easing, the visit reshapes regional power equations.

    How do Pakistan-Iran ties affect regional dynamics?

    • Border Tensions and Proxy Conflicts: Pakistan and Iran share a volatile border in Balochistan, where militant groups operate across both sides, causing frequent skirmishes. Eg: In early 2024, both countries exchanged missile strikes after attacks on Iranian security forces allegedly by groups based in Pakistan.
    • Geopolitical Rivalry in Afghanistan: Both countries compete for influence in Afghanistan, affecting regional alliances and the balance of power in Central Asia. Eg: Iran backs Shia groups, while Pakistan supports Sunni factions, intensifying sectarian divides and shaping Afghanistan’s internal politics.
    • Strategic Role in U.S.-Iran Tensions: Pakistan could play a critical role in isolating Iran, especially during a U.S.-Iran conflict, by shutting trade routes and cooperating with U.S. military interests. Eg: On June 15, 2025, Pakistan closed its border with Iran, coinciding with the Pakistani Army Chief’s visit to Washington, signaling alignment with U.S. strategy.

    Where does Pakistan stand economically amid rising defence spending?

    • High Debt Burden : Interest payments consume 74% of revenue, leaving little for other public services. Eg: In FY2025‑26, PKR (Pakistan’s revenue)  8.207 trillion was allocated to interest, out of PKR 11.07 trillion in total revenue.
    • Defense Budget Surge at Development’s Expense: Despite an overall cut in spending, defense gets a 17% increase, while developmental funds are halved. Eg: Defense allocation in FY2025‑26 is PKR 3.29 trillion, whereas development spending dropped to PKR 1 trillion.
    • Heavy Reliance on Bailouts: Pakistan depends on IMF packages and debt rollovers to meet fiscal commitments amid shrinking revenues. Eg: After its 25th IMF bailout, Pakistan secured PKR 1.4 billion in climate resilience funds, along with PKR 16 billion in loan rollovers.

    What are the steps taken by the Indian government? 

    • Strategic Engagement with Iran and Gulf Nations: India continues to balance its ties with Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to safeguard energy security and trade interests. Eg: India is actively involved in developing the Chabahar Port in Iran, enhancing access to Afghanistan and Central Asia while bypassing Pakistan. At the same time, India is deepening partnerships with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, including in defence and energy sectors.
    • Heightened Border Surveillance: The Indian government has directed increased surveillance and intelligence gathering along the western borders, especially in Jammu & Kashmir, to counter any proxy threats or destabilisation efforts. Eg: Deployment of UAVs and satellite imaging systems has been intensified across vulnerable stretches, and border infrastructure under the Vibrant Villages Programme is being upgraded.

    What should India do? (Way forward)

    • Strengthen Strategic Autonomy in West Asia: India must maintain balanced relations with both Iran and the U.S., ensuring that its energy security and regional interests are safeguarded. Eg: Continue investing in Chabahar Port, a strategic counter to China-backed Gwadar, while also deepening ties with the Gulf monarchies for energy and investment.
    • Enhance Intelligence and Military Vigilance along Western Borders: With increasing Pakistan-U.S. military cooperation and Iran-Pakistan tensions, India must stay alert to any spillover effects. Eg: Boost surveillance in Jammu & Kashmir, especially given General Munir’s renewed rhetoric on Kashmir and increased Pakistani defense spending.

  • India needs a strategy to deal with China’s restrictions on exports of rare earths

    Why in the News?

    The growing trade war between the U.S. and China, marked by rising tariffs, has drawn attention to rare earth elements and critical minerals.

    What is the role of critical minerals in key industries?

    • Clean Energy and Digital Technologies: Critical minerals such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt are essential for lithium-ion batteries, which are widely used in electric vehicles (EVs) and portable electronics.  
    • Renewable Energy Infrastructure: Minerals like dysprosium and neodymium are used in wind turbines, while tellurium, indium, and gallium are critical for solar photovoltaic cells, vital for clean energy generation.
    • Defence and Strategic Industries: Rare earth elements are critical for manufacturing missile guidance systems, jet engines, and advanced communication equipment. Eg: Gallium and indium are used in high-frequency radar systems and military-grade semiconductors.

    Why is China’s control over rare earths a global concern?

    • Supply Chain Vulnerability: China controls over 90% of global rare earth refining and has the largest reserves, making other countries highly dependent on its exports. In May 2025, China’s export restrictions on rare earth magnets led to global panic and supply concerns in the automobile and electronics sectors.
    • Geopolitical Leverage: China’s dominance allows it to use rare earths as a strategic tool in trade wars or diplomatic tensions, affecting global industrial stability. In response to U.S. tariffs, China imposed restrictions on rare earths, disrupting supply to key U.S. industries.
    • Disruption of Global Industries: Restrictions can hinder production in sectors like renewables, EVs, and defence, slowing global progress in critical technologies. Eg: India’s automobile sector expressed concern about rare earth shortages impacting EV manufacturing and sought government intervention.

    How are countries responding to China’s restrictions?

    • Diplomatic and Trade Negotiations: Major economies like the U.S. and EU are engaging with China to secure continued access to rare earth supplies. Eg: The U.S.-China framework includes commitments that “Full magnets, and any necessary rare earths, will be supplied
 by China.”
    • Diversification of Supply Sources: Nations are turning to alternative producers to reduce dependence on China. Eg: Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam are actively exploring their critical mineral resources to establish new supply options.
    • National Self-Reliance Missions: Countries are launching domestic initiatives to boost exploration, mining, and processing of critical minerals. Eg: India’s National Critical Mineral Mission (2025) aims to conduct 1,200 exploration projects by 2030–31 to bolster local supply chains.

    What measures has India taken for mineral self-reliance?

    • Launch of the National Critical Mineral Mission (2025): A central initiative aimed at securing India’s future needs in critical and rare minerals. This mission includes plans for 1,200 exploration projects by 2030–31 under the Geological Survey of India.
    • Expanding Domestic Exploration & Mining: India is ramping up on-ground efforts to locate and extract critical minerals within its own borders. Eg: The Geological Survey of India is actively spearheading new lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elementexploration programs across several states.
    • Building Processing and Supply Chain Ecosystems: The government is promoting infrastructure for domestic processing, refining, and manufacturing related to critical minerals. Eg: Policy support and incentives are being extended to companies to set up mineral processing plants, reducing dependence on foreign sources.

    Why is a multi-level strategy needed in this sector?

    A multi-level strategy refers to a comprehensive approach that operates on different layers or fronts simultaneously to address a complex issue effectively. 

    • To Ensure Short-Term Supply Security: Relying on a single country like China for essential minerals creates risks of disruption during geopolitical tensions or trade restrictions. Eg: After China’s 34% tariff and export restrictions in 2025, global industries, including India’s auto sector, faced supply uncertainty.
    • To Develop Domestic Capabilities: Long-term resilience requires countries to invest in local exploration, mining, and processing infrastructure. Eg: India launched the National Critical Mineral Mission with plans for 1,200 exploration projects by 2030–31 to reduce import dependence.

    Way forward:

    • Strengthen International Collaborations for Strategic Reserves: India should forge long-term mineral supply agreements and joint ventures with resource-rich countries. Eg: Bilateral ties with Australia, Argentina, and Africa can help secure lithium and cobalt through assured offtake deals.
    • Boost Domestic R&D and Green Mining Technologies: Investing in sustainable exploration, extraction, and recycling technologies will reduce environmental impactand enhance efficiency. Eg: Support for CSIR and private firms in developing indigenous technologies for rare earth processing and battery recycling.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2024] The West is fostering India as an alternative to reduce dependence on China’s supply chain and as a strategic ally to counter China’s political and economic dominance.’ Explain this statement with examples.

    Linkage: The article highlights that China dominates the production and reserves of rare earth elements and has placed export restrictions on them, causing panic over supply shortages. This question encapsulates the broader geopolitical and economic context that necessitates India’s strategy to counter China’s dominance and secure critical supplies, such as rare earths.

  • Why so many Indian students — especially from Kashmir — go to Iran for higher education

    Why in the News?

    The recent Iran–Israel conflict has again revealed the weaknesses in India’s system of sending students abroad for medical education. Due to the conflict, India had to carry out emergency evacuations of its students from war zones, similar to what was done during the Ukraine crisis under Operation Ganga.

    Why do Indian students, especially Kashmiris, prefer studying medicine in Iran?

    • Affordability and Lower Fees: Studying medicine in Iran is far cheaper than Indian private colleges. Eg: Medical degrees in Iran cost nearly one-tenth of what private institutions in India charge.
    • Cultural and Historical Ties: Kashmir shares strong historical and cultural links with Iran, often referred to as “Iran-e-Sagheer” (Iran Minor). Eg: 13th-century Iranian saint Meer Sayyed Ali Hamadani brought crafts, industries, and Persian influence to Kashmir.
    • Religious and Admission Advantages: Religious affinity due to a shared Shia population eases access for Kashmiri students. Eg: Iran provides admission concessions (Pargees quota) to Kashmiri students based on cultural-religious ties.
    • Historical Connection: Kashmir has long-standing civilisational links with Iran, often called “Iran-e-Sagheer” (Little Iran). Eg: In the 13th century, Meer Sayyed Ali Hamadani, an Iranian saint, brought crafts, culture, and Persian influence to Kashmir.
    • Language and Educational Comfort: The Persian language, once widely used in Kashmir, and similar educational traditions make adaptation easier. Eg: Kashmiri students find Iran’s academic and cultural environment more familiar and accessible compared to Western countries.

    What are the major risks and challenges associated with pursuing medical degrees abroad?

    • Quality of Education Varies: Some foreign universities run dual-tier systems, offering lower-quality courses for international students. Eg: Certain programs are not designed to meet clinical standards required in India or even in the host country.
    • Ineligibility to Practice Locally: Many students graduate from courses that do not allow them to practice in the host country. Eg: A student completing a degree in a university designed only for foreigners may not qualify for local medical licenses.
    • FMGE and Licensing Issues in India: All foreign medical graduates must clear the Foreign Medical Graduate Examination (FMGE), which has a low pass rate. Eg: In 2024, only 25.8% of foreign-trained students passed the FMGE.
    • Lack of Transparency and Regulation: There is no official list of approved foreign colleges, leading to confusion and misinformation. Eg: Students often rely on agents or unverifiable online sources, resulting in enrolment in unrecognised institutions.

    What challenges do foreign-trained doctors face in India?

    • Low Pass Rate in FMGE: Foreign-trained doctors must clear the Foreign Medical Graduate Examination (FMGE) to practice in India, which has a historically low success rate. Eg: In 2024, only 25.8% of candidates passed the FMGE, reflecting gaps in practical training and knowledge.
    • Mismatch in Course Duration & Curriculum: Some foreign degrees do not meet the National Medical Commission (NMC) norms like minimum 54-month duration and one-year internship. Eg: Degrees from the Philippines (48 months) were not recognised, leading to rejection of registration applications.
    • Employment and Clinical Training Gaps: Even after passing FMGE, doctors struggle with employment due to perceived inferior clinical exposure and lack of hands-on patient care experience. Eg: Many hospitals hesitate to hire FMG doctors citing practical skill deficiencies.

    Way forward: 

    • Establish Clear Guidelines and Approved Lists – The National Medical Commission (NMC) should release an official list of recognised foreign medical institutions and standardise eligibility norms.
    • Enhance FMGE Support and Skill Bridging – Provide preparatory support, internships, and clinical exposure to help returning students meet Indian medical practice standards.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2023] Indian diaspora has scaled new heights in the West. Describe its economic and political benefits for India.

    Linkage: The Indian diaspora, which includes individuals who have moved abroad for higher education and subsequently stayed. Their presence abroad contributes to economic and political benefits for India.

  • Places in news: Strait of Hormuz

    Why in the News?

    Iran’s Parliament has approved a motion to block the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns worldwide.

    Strait of Hormuz

    About the Strait of Hormuz:

    • Geographic Location: The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and eventually to the Arabian Sea.
    • Dimensions: It is about 167 km long and 33 km wide at its narrowest, making it one of the world’s most strategic maritime chokepoints.
    • Bordering Countries: The strait lies between Iran (north) and Oman (south), with nearby cities such as Bandar Abbas, Khasab, and Dubai.
    • Shipping Lanes: It contains designated lanes just 3 km wide in each direction to manage heavy oil tanker traffic.
    • Key Islands: Important islands include Qeshm, Hormuz, and Hengam (controlled by Iran) and disputed ones like Abu Musa and the Tunbs, claimed by both Iran and the UAE.
    • Naval Depth Advantage: Waters near the Musandam Peninsula reach depths over 650 feet, ideal for deep-draft oil tankers.
    • Security Risks: Due to its narrowness, the strait is vulnerable to disruption from mining, military action, or cyber interference.
    • Historical Tensions: It has witnessed frequent maritime tensions, especially during Iran–West conflicts but has never been fully blocked.

    Its significance:

    • Global Oil Flow: Over 20 million barrels of crude oil per day pass through the strait, accounting for 25% of seaborne oil trade and 20% of global consumption.
    • Gas Exports: It is vital for LNG exports, especially from Qatar, reaching markets across the globe.
    • Asian Dependence: Countries like India, China, Japan, and South Korea import 69% of the oil that flows through the strait.
    • Market Sensitivity: Any disruption can spike global oil prices, increasing fuel and commodity costs worldwide.
    • Limited Alternatives: Overland pipelines like Saudi Arabia’s East-West (5 million bpd) and UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah (1.8 million bpd) offer only partial alternatives.

    Implications of Blockade:

    • Shipping Costs: During geopolitical tensions, insurance and freight charges for using the strait surge significantly.
    • India’s Vulnerability: India relies heavily on the region for oil imports, so instability could raise inflation, disrupt energy supplies, and impact the trade balance.
    • Strategic Response: A full blockade could trigger direct military action, particularly from the US 5th Fleet based in Bahrain.
    • Mutual Economic Impact: Disruption would affect both exporters and importers, including Iran and its major customer, China.
    [UPSC 2010] Which one of the following can one come across if one travels through the Strait of Malacca?

    Options: (a) Bali (b) Brunei (c) Java (d) Singapore*

     

  • [21st June 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Lighting the spark in U.K.-India cultural relations

    PYQ Relevance:

    [UPSC 2019] What makes Indian society unique in sustaining its culture? Discuss.

    Linkage: The article emphasizes India’s “deep cultural heritage” and states that India is “uniquely positioned to lead” in the creative economy, reaffirming a “shared creative spirit” with the UK. This question probes the underlying strengths and uniqueness of Indian culture that enable such leadership and sustained collaboration.

    Mentor’s Comment:  The landmark moment for India-UK ties, not only with the ratification of the long-awaited Free Trade Agreement but more so with the signing of the Programme of Cultural Cooperation (POCC) between both nations. This represents a significant cultural pivot and recognizes creative industries as drivers of economic growth, inclusion, and diplomacy. It also places India, with its deep heritage and burgeoning digital skills, in a leadership role within the global creative economy — a sector projected to constitute 10% of global GDP by 2030. The POCC opens up a digital-cultural corridor between India and the UK, at a time when cross-border cultural diplomacy is becoming central to international relations.

    Today’s editorial analyses the Free Trade Agreement between the UK and India. This content would help in GS Paper I (Indian Society), GS Paper II (International Relations) and GS Paper III ( Indian Economy)  in the mains Paper.

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    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    In May 2024, India and the United Kingdom approved their long-awaited Free Trade Agreement, marking a major step forward in their economic relationship.

    What is the Programme of Cultural Cooperation (POCC)?

    • POCC is a cultural agreement signed on May 2 between U.K. Secretary of State for Culture Lisa Nandy and India’s Minister for Culture Gajendra Singh Shekhawat.
    • It aims to strengthen India-U.K. cultural ties and enhance cooperation across the creative economy. It represents a shared commitment to cross-cultural collaboration and economic growth.

    What are its main focus areas?

    • Digital Technologies for Culture: Focuses on using emerging tools like AI, AR/VR, and digital platforms to preserve and share cultural experiences. Eg: Creating virtual museum tours or AI-powered cultural archives.
    • Exhibitions and Collections: Promotes collaboration between museums and institutions to share art, history, and heritage collections. Eg: Joint exhibitions by the British Museum and Indian cultural institutions.
    • Performances and Events: Encourages cultural exchanges through music, dance, theatre, and film festivals. Eg: Participation of Indian artists in the Serendipity Arts Festival – Birmingham chapter.
    • Cultural Property: Aims to protect and restore heritage artifacts and traditions, including tackling illicit trafficking. Eg: UNESCO–Royal Enfield’s Himalayan Knot project conserving textile traditions.
    • Sustainability: Supports environmentally responsible practices in cultural projects and promotes green initiatives in the arts. Eg: Sustainable exhibition design and eco-friendly performances during India-UK cultural collaborations.

    What is the creative economy? 

    The creative economy includes sectors such as art, music, design, film, architecture, publishing, fashion, advertising, digital media, software, and crafts—all of which rely on individual creativity, skill, and talent. Eg: Bollywood contributes to both India’s cultural identity and economy through movies, music, and dance.

    Why is the creative economy important for both India and the U.K.?

    • Drives Economic Growth: The creative economy is projected to contribute 10% of global GDP by 2030. Eg: India’s creative sector is already worth $35 billion, and is rapidly expanding with global collaborations.
    • Generates Employment: It is a major employment multiplier, especially in sectors like film, design, digital content, and heritage arts. Eg: In India, it employs 8% of the workforce, second only to agriculture.
    • Boosts Cross-Cultural Collaboration: Fosters partnerships and mutual understanding between nations through shared cultural experiences. Eg: The POCC agreement strengthens UK-India ties via co-created exhibitions and performances.
    • Supports Innovation through Technology: Integrates AI, AR/VR, and digital platforms into creative practices, making the sector dynamic and future-ready. Eg: The British Council’s Arts and Technologies report calls for embedding digital tools in India’s creative education.
    • Promotes Inclusive Development: Engages non-metro regions and artisan communities, helping balance regional inequalities. Eg: Creative hubs in Badgam (J&K) and Tiruppur (TN) show the power of decentralised cultural growth.

    How are new technologies shaping the creative sector?

    • Enhancing Cultural Experiences through AR/VR: Augmented and virtual reality bring immersive experiences to museums, exhibitions, and performances. Eg: Museums in the U.K. use VR to recreate historical events, allowing virtual tours and deeper engagement.
    • Expanding Global Reach via Digital Platforms: Digital platforms enable creators to reach global audiences instantly. Eg: Indian artists now showcase their work on OTT platforms and global streaming services.
    • Boosting Innovation in Storytelling with AI: Artificial Intelligence helps generate content, animation, music, and design, improving efficiency and creativity. Eg: AI tools are used in film editing and scriptwriting to speed up production.
    • Creating New Art Forms and Jobs: Tech-based sectors like gaming, digital art, and interactive media are emerging as new creative industries. Eg: India’s gaming sector, driven by youth and mobile access, is becoming a major employer in digital creativity.
    • Transforming Creative Education: New technologies are integrated into curricula to train the next generation of artists and designers. Eg: The British Council’s report urges India to include tech-based tools in creative education programs.

    Way forward: 

    • Promote Education & Skill Development: Invest in creative education, vocational training, and digital literacy to build a future-ready workforce equipped for sectors like design, animation, gaming, and digital content.
      Eg: Setting up creative arts institutes and expanding courses in AR/VR, AI, and multimedia design.
    • Strengthen International Collaboration & Policy Support: Foster cross-border partnerships and provide policy incentives for creative industries to innovate, grow, and access global markets. Eg: Agreements like the India–U.K. Programme of Cultural Cooperation (POCC) help promote cultural exchangeand creative trade.

  • Explained: Significance of PM Modi’s Croatia visit, and India’s historic ties with the country

    Why in the News?

    Prime Minister is visiting Croatia as part of his three-nation tour, which includes Cyprus and Canada. It is his first foreign trip since Operation Sindoor and the first-ever by an Indian PM to Croatia.

    Why is India’s PM’s visit to Croatia strategically important for India-Europe ties?

    • First-Ever Visit Signals Diplomatic Priority: PM of India visit marks the first by an Indian Prime Minister to Croatia, signalling India’s intent to strengthen ties with smaller but strategically located EU nations. Eg: This visit follows recent high-level engagements with the EU, including EAM S. Jaishankar’s tour of key European nations and the EU chief’s visit to India.
    • Gateway to Broader European Engagement: Croatia’s location on the Adriatic Sea and participation in EU and NATO makes it a vital link for India to access Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe. Eg: Ports like Rijeka and Split could serve as future nodes for the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
    • Strategic Counter to China’s Growing Presence: The visit is a part of India’s effort to counterbalance Chinese influence in the region through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by building stronger ties with countries like Croatia. Eg: Croatia is part of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI), where India can build alternative trade and energy partnerships.

    What is the significance of Croatia’s location in India’s trade and connectivity plans?

    • Strategic Adriatic Sea Access to Europe: Croatia is located on the Adriatic Sea, offering India a western maritime gateway to Europe and easy access to landlocked Central and Eastern European nations. Eg: Ports like Rijeka, Split, and Ploče can facilitate India-Europe cargo movement, reducing dependence on northern European routes.
    • Link to Trans-European Transport Corridors: Croatia sits at the intersection of the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T), enabling smoother logistics and intermodal trade connectivity across the EU. Eg: Goods arriving at Croatian ports can be distributed via rail or road to Germany, Austria, Hungary, and beyond.
    • Potential Hub in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC): Croatia could be a key extension point in IMEC, connecting India to Europe through Middle Eastern and Mediterranean routes. Eg: A route through Adriatic ports would offer faster, diversified supply chain options to bypass chokepoints like the Suez Canal.

    How have India-Croatia relations evolved since Yugoslavia’s breakup?

    • Early Recognition and Diplomatic Ties: India was among the first non-European countries to recognise Croatia’s independence in 1992 and quickly established formal diplomatic relations. Eg: The Indian mission in Zagreb opened in 1996, and ties were upgraded to the ambassadorial level by 1998.
    • Continuity of Warm Relations from Yugoslav Era: Friendly ties from the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) days continued, especially since Marshal Tito (of mixed Croatian and Slovene heritage) had a strong personal rapport with Indian leadership. Eg: Croatia once accounted for two-thirds of India-Yugoslavia trade, laying a historical economic foundation.
    • Stable Relations Amid Croatia’s Western Integration: Despite Croatia’s focus on EU and NATO membership, India maintained cordial ties and engaged through trade, cultural diplomacy, and multilateral platforms. Eg: Croatia joined NATO in 2009 and the EU in 2013, yet bilateral trade and cultural exchanges with India have steadily grown.

    What are the key economic and cultural links between India and Croatia?

    • Growing Bilateral Trade: Economic ties have steadily improved, with bilateral trade increasing from $199.45 million in 2017 to $337.68 million in 2023. Eg: India exports medicines, machinery, chemicals, and apparel, while Croatia exports chemicals, precision instruments, and timber products to India.
    • Deep Cultural and Civilisational Connect: Cultural exchanges trace back centuries, with scholars and missionaries engaging with Indian traditions and languages. Eg: Croatian scholar Ivan Filip Vezdin printed the first Sanskrit grammar in Latin in 1790 after learning from Kerala Brahmins—a reprint was gifted to PM Modi.
    • Academic and Heritage Bonds: Indian culture continues to attract interest in Croatia, particularly in universities and historical architecture. Eg: Croatian involvement in the construction of the Church of Sao Braz in Goa in the 1560s and Indian studies programmes in Croatian academic institutions reflect enduring links.

    Why should India deepen engagement with Central and Eastern Europe amid China’s BRI?

    • Strategic Counter to China’s Expanding Influence: Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries are key participants in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), increasing Beijing’s geopolitical footprint in the region. Eg: Strengthening ties with countries like Croatia, Poland, and Hungary allows India to offer an alternative partnership model based on mutual respect and balanced trade.
    • Support for India’s Global Aspirations: Many CEE countries support India’s bid for permanent membership in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC)and other multilateral forums. Eg: Engaging with pro-India nations in the EU helps India shape global norms and strengthen its diplomatic leverage.
    • Geostrategic and Economic Gateway to Europe: CEE countries lie at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, making them vital for India’s trade connectivity, energy cooperation, and access to European markets. Eg: Croatia’s role in the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) and its ports linked to Trans-European corridors can serve as hubs for the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).

    Way forward: 

    • Institutionalise Strategic and Economic Dialogue: India should establish regular high-level forums and joint working groups with Croatia and other CEE countries to deepen cooperation in trade, infrastructure, and digital technology.
    • Enhance Cultural and Academic Exchange: Boosting people-to-people ties through scholarships, cultural festivals, and collaborative research will strengthen India’s soft power and foster long-term partnerships across the region.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2024] The West is fostering India as an alternative to reduce dependence on China’s supply chain and as a strategic ally to counter China’s political and economic dominance.’ Explain this statement with examples.

    Linkage: Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Croatia, an EU member, is highlighted as part of a broader strategy to strengthen India-EU ties. The article explicitly states that this growing importance of India-EU relations comes in the context of the EU “trying to de-risk from China”.

  • Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

    Why in the News?

    Amid intensifying war with Israel, Iran’s Parliament began drafting a Bill to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

    About Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT):

    • Overview: It is a global agreement aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, promoting peaceful nuclear energy, and advancing nuclear disarmament.
    • Enforcement: It was opened for signature on June 12, 1968, and came into force on March 5, 1970.
    • Nature of the Treaty: It is the only binding international treaty that requires NWS to pursue disarmament.
    • Categorization of States: The treaty distinguishes between Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) and Non-Nuclear Weapon States (Non-NWS).
    • Key Features:
      • Definition of NWS: Countries that had tested nuclear weapons before January 1, 1967 (US, UK, France, Russia, China).
      • Obligations: NNWS agree not to manufacture or acquire nuclear weapons; NWS pledge not to transfer nuclear weapons or assist non-NWS in acquiring them.
      • Peaceful Use Clause: All parties are allowed to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, under IAEA safeguards.
      • Monitoring Agency: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verifies compliance through inspections and reporting.
      • Withdrawal Clause: Article 10 allows a country to withdraw with 3 months’ notice if national interests are jeopardized.

    India and NPT:

    • India is NOT a signatory to the NPT and has consistently refused to join, calling it discriminatory.
    • India argues that the treaty legitimizes nuclear weapons in the hands of five countries while denying them to others.
    • India conducted its first nuclear test in 1974 (Smiling Buddha) and maintains a “No First Use” policy.
    • Despite being outside the NPT, India is regarded as a responsible nuclear power and adheres to non-proliferation norms.

    Non-members of NPT, Countries Planning to Leave:

    • Non-signatories:
      • India and Pakistan have never signed the treaty, but both possess nuclear weapons.
      • Israel is also a non-signatory and maintains strategic ambiguity about its nuclear weapons.
      • South Sudan remains a non-signatory without known nuclear ambitions.
    • Countries that withdrew or are planning to:
      • North Korea signed in 1985, withdrew in 2003, and went on to develop nuclear weapons.
      • Iran, though a signatory since 1970, has recently threatened to withdraw, citing IAEA censure and security concerns linked to its tensions with Israel.
      • If Iran leaves, it would end IAEA inspections and raise fears of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
    [UPSC 2018] What is/are the consequence/consequences of a country becoming the member of the ‘Nuclear Suppliers Group’?

    1. It will have access to the latest and most efficient nuclear technologies.

    2. It automatically becomes a member of “The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)”. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

    Options: (a) 1 only* (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2

     

  • [19th June 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Why are oil prices rising amid Iran-Israel war?

    PYQ Relevance:

    [UPSC 2018] In what ways would the ongoing US-Iran Nuclear Pact Controversy affect the national interest of India? How should India respond to this situation?

    Linkage: This question explicitly links “escalating tensions between Iran and Israel” to oil prices “spiralling upwards” due to fears of “potential disruption in oil supplies globally”. The article talks about the Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz as the “primary reason” for rising prices, as this chokepoint is crucial for transporting a significant portion of global petroleum liquids and oil supply from the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea.

     

    Mentor’s Comment:  Oil prices have jumped sharply due to rising tensions between Iran and Israel, mainly because of fears that the Strait of Hormuz — a key route for global oil supply — could be blocked. Brent crude prices rose by 9%, showing how sensitive global markets are to such conflicts. Although prices eased slightly after news of diplomatic talks through Gulf countries, the threat of disruption still remains. For India, which buys over 80% of its oil from abroad, this is a serious concern. It affects not just fuel availability, but also inflation, economic stability, and business investments, making it a major challenge for India’s economy.

    Today’s editorial analyses the impact of tensions between Iran and Israel on crude oil prices. This content would help in GS Paper II (International Relations) and GS Paper III (Indian Economy) in the mains Paper.

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    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    Recently, oil prices have risen a lot because of increasing tension between Iran and Israel, mainly due to worries that the Strait of Hormuz — a major route for global oil transport — might be closed.

    Why is the Strait of Hormuz vital for global oil trade?

    • Major Oil Transit Chokepoint: The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints, through which nearly 20 million barrels per day (mb/d) of oil passed in 2024 — about one-fifth of global consumption. Eg: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that the strait handled the world’s largest oil tankers transporting oil from Gulf nations.
    • Exports from Key Producers: It serves as the primary export route for major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar. Eg: According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), about one-fourth of the global oil supply exits the Gulf through this strait.
    • Dependency of Asian Markets: A significant portion of oil transiting the Strait goes to Asian economies, which are heavily dependent on West Asian oil. Eg: In 2024, 84% of crude oil and 83% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) transported via the Strait was destined for countries like India, China, Japan, etc.

    What are the economic implications of the Israel-Iran conflict on India’s growth and inflation?

    • Rising Crude Oil Prices Increases Import Costs: A spike in global oil prices due to the conflict raises India’s import bill, as the country imports over 80% of its crude oil needs. Eg: Brent crude surged to $78.50/barrel in June 2024 amid Israel-Iran tensions, directly increasing India’s energy costs and widening the current account deficit.
    • Pressure on Inflation and Input Costs: Higher oil prices translate into increased transportation and production costs, leading to inflationary pressure on goods and services. Eg: Experts like Amit Kumar of Grant Thornton noted that global price shocks could affect India Inc’s profitability and raise inflation even though India doesn’t import oil directly from Iran.
    • Threat to GDP Growth Projections: Prolonged geopolitical instability may lead to delayed private investments and lower industrial output, affecting economic growth. Eg: ICRA’s Chief Economist, Aditi Nayar, warned that a sustained oil price rise could prompt a downward revision of India’s 6.2% GDP growth forecast for FY25.

    How has India reduced its vulnerability to oil price shocks amid West Asian tensions?

    • Diversification of Crude Oil Import Sources: India has expanded its import basket beyond traditional Gulf suppliers to include countries like the U.S., Russia, and Latin American nations. Eg: Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated that India is “comfortably placed” due to diversified crude sourcing, reducing overdependence on West Asia.
    • Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR): India has built strategic oil reserves to buffer against short-term supply disruptions or price spikes. Eg: The Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd (ISPRL) manages reserves that can support 9–10 days of crude demand, offering resilience during crises.
    • Promoting Renewable Energy and Domestic Production: India is ramping up solar, wind, and ethanol-blended fuels to lower long-term reliance on imported oil. Eg: Initiatives like PM-KUSUM and National Bio-Energy Mission aim to reduce fossil fuel dependence and enhance energy security.

    What are the key drivers of the recent oil price surge?

    • Geopolitical Tensions Between Iran and Israel: The escalation in Israel-Iran conflict, including threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, triggered fears of significant supply disruptions, sending oil prices sharply upward. Eg: Brent crude shot up nearly 9% on June 13, reaching $75.65 per barrel, after heightened tensions.
    • Strait of Hormuz Chokepoint Risk: As a critical maritime chokepoint, any threat to close the Strait could drastically affect global oil flow and increase shipping and insurance costs, contributing to higher prices. Eg: Iran’s repeated threats to disrupt transit through the Strait instilled market anxiety, pushing Brent to an intraday high of $78.50 per barrel.
    • Supply Constraints Due to Sanctions and Regional Export Bottlenecks: U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports and potential disruptions to routes via the Suez Canal or Red Sea limit available global supply, exacerbating price volatility.

    Who ensures safe oil transit through Hormuz?

    • United States Navy – Fifth Fleet: The U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, regularly patrols the Strait to deter threats like piracy or military aggression, especially from Iran. Eg: In 2019, after Iranian threats, the U.S. deployed additional naval assets to escort commercial tankers through Hormuz.
    • International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC): A coalition of Western and Gulf nations, including the UK, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, established the IMSC to protect freedom of navigation in the Gulf region. Eg: The UK Royal Navy has deployed warships like HMS Montrose to escort oil tankers through Hormuz during periods of heightened tension.

    What global actions can reduce related risks? (Way forward)

    • Strengthening Multilateral Naval Patrols: Enhancing joint maritime security through coalitions like the International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC) can deter potential blockades and ensure safe passage. Eg: The U.S. and UK-led naval missions in 2019 escorted oil tankers after Iran’s threats, maintaining uninterrupted oil flow.
    • Diversifying Global Oil Supply Routes: Investing in alternative pipelines and trade routes (e.g., via Red Sea or land-based pipelines) reduces overdependence on chokepoints like Hormuz. Eg: The UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline bypasses the Strait and delivers oil directly to the Arabian Sea, reducing exposure to disruption.

  • Resetting the India-U.S. partnership in uncertain times

    Why in the News?

    India-U.S. ties, once seen as strong and promising, now face a quiet shift. Recent U.S. actions like engaging Pakistan’s military and economic warnings to India have caused concern in Delhi.

    Why does the India-U.S. relationship face a strategic drift despite deep convergence?

    • Transactional Approach Undermines Long-term Trust: The Trump administration’s focus on short-term, deal-based diplomacy contrasts with India’s strategic and civilisational outlook, causing mistrust. Eg: Trump’s unpredictable style — praising one day, criticising the next — makes it difficult for India to navigate the partnership confidently.
    • Return of “India-Pakistan Hyphenation”: The revival of outdated strategic equivalence between India and Pakistan has offended Indian diplomatic efforts to de-hyphenate its rise. Eg: Trump’s offer to mediate on Kashmir post-Operation Sindoor and remarks equating both nations reignited diplomatic concerns in New Delhi.
    • Contradictory Economic and Strategic Signals: Despite promoting Indo-Pacific cooperation, U.S. actions have undermined India’s manufacturing ambitions and H-1B visa interests. Eg: Trump reportedly discouraged Apple from expanding in India, clashing with India’s China-plus-one strategy and investment goals.

    What key factors are straining India-U.S. ties under the Trump administration?

    • Revival of India-Pakistan Equivalence: The U.S. has reverted to “hyphenating” India and Pakistan as strategic concerns, undermining India’s diplomatic efforts to decouple its rise. Eg: Trump’s comments post-Operation Sindoor—offering mediation on Kashmir and warning of nuclear escalation—were seen as diplomatically regressive.
    • Economic Mixed Signals: The Trump administration sent conflicting signals on India’s role in global supply chains, affecting investor confidence. Eg: Trump reportedly discouraged Apple from expanding manufacturing in India, undermining India’s China-plus-one strategy.
    • Restrictive Immigration Stance: The H-1B visa policy, critical to U.S.-India tech ties, has become vulnerable to protectionist rhetoric and political posturing. Eg: Curtailing H-1B visas strains the Silicon Valley–India innovation ecosystem, weakening a pillar of bilateral cooperation.

    How can India manage uncertainties in its U.S. engagement strategy?

    • Pursue Calibrated and Persistent Diplomacy: India must avoid overreaction and focus on quiet, sustained engagement to preserve strategic alignment. Eg: Continued cooperation in defence, Quad, and intelligence sharing can reinforce long-term trust despite short-term irritants.
    • Broaden Strategic Outreach in the U.S: India should strengthen its influence beyond traditional diplomacy by engaging Congress, think tanks, and the Indian-American diaspora. Eg: Leveraging support from Indian-origin U.S. lawmakers helps build bipartisan consensus for stronger ties.
    • Accelerate Domestic Economic Reforms: India must boost its manufacturing, regulatory clarity, and infrastructure to reinforce its attractiveness as a global partner. Eg: Advancing Make in India and supply chain resilience makes India indispensable to U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy.

    Why does the U.S. tilt towards Pakistan concern India’s strategic interests?

    Revival of India-Pakistan Diplomatic Parity (Hyphenation): By treating India and Pakistan as strategic equals, the U.S. threatens to undo India’s efforts to decouple its global risefrom the South Asian rivalry. Eg: Trump’s offer to mediate in Kashmir and mention of India and Pakistan in the same context post-Operation Sindoor reflect regressive diplomacy.

    What steps must India and the U.S. take to revive their strategic partnership? (Way forward)

    • Strengthen Institutional and People-to-People Engagement: Both countries must go beyond government-to-government ties and deepen connections through think tanks, academia, diaspora, and legislative forums. Eg: India leveraging the Indian-American diaspora and policy institutions in Washington can build long-term bipartisan support.
    • Reframe Economic and Immigration Cooperation: Economic reforms in India and predictable immigration policies in the U.S. can boost mutual trust in trade and talent exchange. Eg: Reframing the H-1B visa regime as a tool for mutual innovation rather than political leverage strengthens tech cooperation.
    • Reinforce Shared Strategic Values and Regional Vision: India and the U.S. must revive the moral and strategic purpose of their partnership — promoting a rules-based, democratic, Indo-Pacific order. Eg: Joint initiatives through the Quad and coordination in maritime security reinforce their shared commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2019] What introduces friction into the ties between India and the United States is that Washington is still unable to find for India a position in its global strategy, which would satisfy India’s National self-esteem and ambitions” Explain with suitable examples.

    Linkage: This article explicitly highlights a “perceptible drift; subtle yet serious” in the relationship, indicating “uncertain times”. It calls for a “reset, not of fundamentals, but of tone, clarity, and mutual commitment”.

  • [18th June 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: What is Netanyahu’s endgame in Iran?

    PYQ Relevance:

    [UPSC 2018] In what ways would the ongoing US-Iran Nuclear Pact Controversy affect the national interest of India? How should India respond to this situation?

    Linkage: To answer this question effectively, one would need to understand the strategic objectives (Netanyahu’s “endgame”) of the key players involved, particularly Israel and the U.S., concerning Iran’s nuclear capabilities and regional influence because this question is highly relevant as it directly references the “US-Iran Nuclear Pact Controversy,” which is a central theme of article.

     

    Mentor’s Comment:  Israel’s massive air attack on Iran, launched on June 13, has become a major turning point in West Asia’s politics and nuclear tensions. Israel targeted important nuclear sites, military bases, and top Iranian leaders — including the head of Iran’s armed forces — in what is now the most serious direct clash between the two countries. Although Israel says it wants to stop Iran’s nuclear program, much of the damage is limited, and Iran has hit back by firing hundreds of missiles, showing that Israel’s air advantage has its limits. This rising conflict is pushing the region closer to a wider war, with uncertain choices ahead — whether through diplomacy, trying to remove Iran’s government, or involving the U.S. — all of which carry serious global risks.

    Today’s editorial analyse the Israel’s massive air attack on Iran. This content would help in GS Paper II (International Relations) in the mains Paper.

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    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    Israel controls the skies and keeps bombing Iran to stop its nuclear program. But without powerful bombers to destroy protected sites, the attacks are unlikely to end soon.

    Why did Israel launch a pre-emptive air war against Iran?

    • To cripple Iran’s nuclear programme: Israel aimed to destroy key facilities involved in uranium enrichment and nuclear fuel processing. Eg: The air strikes on Natanz and Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre targeted centrifuge halls, uranium conversion labs, and fuel manufacturing plants.
    • To eliminate Iran’s military leadership and infrastructure: Israel sought to weaken Iran’s retaliatory capabilities by decapitating its chain of command and targeting missile sites. Eg: The first wave of attacks killed Iran’s top generals, including the chief of the armed forces, and destroyed ballistic missile sites.
    • To pre-empt diplomacy and assert regional dominance: The strike came just before scheduled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, indicating Israel’s intent to disrupt any deal that could legitimize Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Eg: The air war began three days before the sixth round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, showing that diplomacy was not Israel’s immediate priority.

    What impact has Israel’s offensive had on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and retaliatory capabilities?

    • Partial damage to nuclear infrastructure: Israel’s strikes caused significant but incomplete destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities. Eg: The Natanz facility’s above-ground buildings were “completely destroyed”, but the underground centrifuge hall remained mostly intact, as per the IAEA.
    • Severe but not total disruption of key nuclear functions: Several critical facilities were hit, reducing Iran’s short-term nuclear processing ability. Eg: At Isfahan, Israel destroyed a chemical lab, uranium conversion plant, fuel manufacturing plant, and a uranium metal conversion unit—all essential to nuclear development.
    • Limited impact on Iran’s missile retaliation capacity: Despite leadership losses and infrastructure damage, Iran responded with strong missile and drone attacks. Eg: Iran launched ~400 missiles, striking targets in Israel like the Haifa oil refinery and a research institute near Tel Aviv, showing its retaliatory capabilities remain intact.

    How does the ongoing conflict affect regional security?

    • Risk of a full-scale regional war: The conflict may escalate beyond Israel and Iran, drawing in regional actors and proxy militias. Eg: Iran’s allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Shia militias in Iraq and Syria could retaliate, opening multiple war fronts across West Asia.
    • Destabilization of already fragile states: Ongoing hostilities may worsen instability in politically volatile countries. Eg: Countries like Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, already dealing with internal conflicts, could become battlefields for Israeli-Iranian proxy warfare.
    • Undermining regional diplomacy and peace efforts: The conflict derails ongoing peace talks and normalisation efforts between Israel and Arab nations. Eg: Arab countries part of the Abraham Accords, like UAE and Bahrain, are now under pressure to respond, potentially freezing further diplomatic engagement with Israel.
    • Threat to global energy supplies: The war risks disrupting oil production and shipping through key routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Eg: Iran may target Gulf oil infrastructure or tankers, affecting exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE, leading to global oil price hikes.
    • Increased civilian casualties and humanitarian crises: Strikes on civilian infrastructure increase displacement and humanitarian distress. Eg: Bombing of civilian locations in Iran and missile hits on Israeli cities have killed dozens and forced airport shutdowns like at Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv.

    What is the role of global powers like the U.S.?

    • Indirect support and strategic green light to Israel: While officially denying involvement, the U.S. has tacitly approved Israel’s actions. Eg: President Donald Trump publicly claimed neutrality but reportedly gave a “clear green light” to Israel before the June 13 strikes, according to Israeli officials.
    • Using Israeli strikes as diplomatic leverage: The U.S. is leveraging the conflict to pressure Iran into nuclear negotiations on stricter terms. Eg: Trump indicated openness to a new nuclear deal with Iran, using Israeli aggression as a tool to push Iran back to talks.
    • Avoiding direct military involvement while containing escalation: The U.S. is trying to prevent the conflict from expanding to American assets or allies. Eg: Trump warned Iran not to target U.S. troops or bases, and Iran has been cautious to avoid direct conflict with U.S. forces despite intense fighting with Israel.

    What are the diplomatic and military options available to Israel in its conflict with Iran?

    • Military escalation for regime change: Israel may continue bombing key infrastructure to weaken or collapse the Iranian regime. Eg: Prime Minister Netanyahu hinted at targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, and stated that the offensive could lead to regime change in Tehran.
    • Pause strikes to enable diplomacy: Israel could halt its attacks temporarily to allow diplomatic negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Eg: Iran reportedly sent feelers through Gulf countries expressing willingness to talk if Israel stops bombing, indicating an opening for peace talks.
    • Push for direct U.S. military involvement: Israel could seek to draw the U.S. into the conflict to achieve its strategic goals, especially the destruction of fortified nuclear sites. Eg: Israeli officials are pressing Washington to join the war, as U.S. bunker-buster bombs and bombers are necessary to destroy Iran’s Fordow facility.

    Way forward: 

    • Pursue an internationally mediated ceasefire and nuclear dialogue: Global powers, especially the U.S., EU, and UN, should mediate a ceasefire to de-escalate hostilities and revive nuclear diplomacy with robust verification mechanisms. Eg: Leveraging backchannel talks through Gulf countries and involving the IAEA can help restore trust and prevent further militarisation.
    • Prevent regional spillover through coordinated crisis management: Establish a joint crisis response framework involving regional actors (like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Turkey) to contain proxy escalations and protect civilian infrastructure. Eg: A regional security dialogue could be initiated under the UN or Arab League to address missile threats, avoid airspace violations, and prevent humanitarian crises.