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Subject: International Relations

  • [20th May 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Understanding India’s relationship with Turkey and Azerbaijan

    PYQ Relevance:

    [UPSC 2013] ‘The expansion and strengthening of NATO and a stronger US-Europe strategic partnership works well in India.’ What is your opinion about this statement? Give reasons and examples to support your answer.

    Linkage: Turkiye is a NATO member, and its foreign policy decisions (like supporting Pakistan or Azerbaijan) are influenced by its position within such alliances, which in turn affects India’s relationships and interests in the region.

     

    Mentor’s Comment: India, Turkey, and Azerbaijan entered into diplomatic tensions after Turkey and Azerbaijan openly supported Pakistan following the Pahalgam massacre. This support sparked a sharp rise in regional political conflicts and strong public reactions. Social media anger quickly escalated, prompting top Indian institutions to pause agreements and causing many travelers to cancel trips to Turkey and Azerbaijan, as reported by travel websites.

    Today’s editorial explains the diplomatic tensions between India, Turkey, and Azerbaijan and their implications. This topic will be included in GS Paper I (Unity in Society) and GS Paper II (International Relations).

    _

    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    Data shows that even if India officially bans trade with Azerbaijan and Turkey, it is likely to experience minimal losses due to limited economic dependence on these countries.

    What triggered the boycott of Turkiye and Azerbaijan in India?

    • Support for Pakistan: Turkiye and Azerbaijan backed Pakistan following India’s military confrontation after the Pahalgam massacre, which angered many Indians.
    • Social media-driven calls for boycott: The support sparked calls on social media to boycott both countries, leading to a surge in travel cancellations. Eg: Sharp spike in cancellations of tour bookings to Turkiye and Azerbaijan reported by travel platforms.
    • Institutional actions: Indian institutions suspended ties, and trader associations resolved to boycott trade and commercial ties with these countries. Eg: IIT Bombay and IIT Roorkee suspended MoUs with Turkish universities.

    Why do Azerbaijan and Turkey oppose India? 

    • Support for Pakistan in the Kashmir conflict: Historically, Turkiye has aligned with Pakistan on the Kashmir issue, opposing India’s sovereignty over the region. Eg: Turkiye’s consistent diplomatic backing of Pakistan’s claims on Kashmir since the partition of India in 1947.
    • Azerbaijan’s conflict with Armenia: India has historically supplied arms and support to Armenia, Azerbaijan’s adversary in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, creating tensions with Azerbaijan. Eg: India’s provision of surface-to-air missile systems to Armenia, opposing Azerbaijan’s territorial claims.

    How have arms trade relations evolved between Turkiye and Pakistan?

    • Long-term arms exports since the 1990s: Turkiye has been supplying arms to Pakistan continuously for over three decades. Eg: SIPRI data shows arms exports from Turkiye to Pakistan starting in the 1990s.
    • Major focus on artillery systems: A significant part of the trade involves artillery like naval guns, howitzers, self-propelled guns, and multiple rocket launchers. Eg: Pakistan has received multiple rocket launchers and howitzers from Turkiye.
    • Supply of armored vehicles: Turkiye exports tanks, armored cars, and personnel carriers to Pakistan’s military. Eg: Delivery of armored vehicles strengthens Pakistan’s ground forces.
    • Mutual strategic and political support: Arms trade is supported by reciprocal backing in geopolitical issues such as Kashmir and Cyprus. Eg: Turkiye supports Pakistan on Kashmir; Pakistan supports Turkiye on Cyprus disputes.
    • Strengthened ties during regional conflicts: The relationship deepened as Turkiye provided diplomatic and military backing to Pakistan in various geopolitical standoffs. Eg: Turkiye’s vocal support for Pakistan during Kashmir-related tensions.

    Who stands to lose more economically if trade is banned?

    • India’s low dependency on crude oil: The combined share of crude oil imports from these two countries is less than 1% of India’s total crude imports. Eg: Charts show less than 1% crude import share over the past six years.
    • Azerbaijan’s significant reliance on India: India was Azerbaijan’s third largest destination for crude oil exports in 2023. Eg: Azerbaijan could face a bigger impact if India bans trade.

    • Limited trade volume in machinery: Turkiye accounts for only about 1% of India’s total imports in machinery, including nuclear reactors and boilers. Eg: India relies more on countries like China and Germany for such equipment.

    • India’s diversified import sources: India’s major imports come from several other countries, making it less vulnerable to a ban on trade with Turkiye and Azerbaijan. Eg: China and Germany are larger suppliers of machinery than Turkiye.
    • Greater economic impact likely on Azerbaijan: Azerbaijan stands to lose more from India’s trade ban because India is a major crude oil buyer for them. Eg: India being the third largest market for Azerbaijan’s crude oil exports highlights this dependence.

    Where has there been a notable rise in Indian tourism and student migration recently?

    Indian tourism

    • Significant increase in Indian tourists to Turkey: In 2024, about 330,000 Indian tourists visited Turkey, marking a 20.7% increase from the previous year. This growth was due to better air connectivity and Turkey’s appeal as a budget-friendly European destination.
    • Rapid growth of Indian tourists in Azerbaijan: Indian tourist arrivals in Azerbaijan jumped from around 60,700 in 2022 to over 243,000 in 2024, fueled by affordability and rich cultural heritage.

     Student migration

    • Increase in Indian students in Turkey: Indian student numbers in Turkey have grown from less than 100 in 2017 to several hundreds by 2024, attracted by diverse programs and competitive costs.
    • Rising Indian student in Azerbaijan: The number of Indian students in Azerbaijan also increased significantly, supported by institutions like Türkiye-Azerbaijan University established in 2024.

    Note: This 2024 data is from before Operation Sindoor. The real effects on tourism and student migration will be seen later because it takes time for such events to show their impact. 

    Way forward: 

    • Promote diplomatic dialogue: India should engage in sustained diplomatic efforts with Turkiye and Azerbaijan to address mutual concerns and reduce geopolitical tensions.
    • Expand people-to-people and economic ties: Enhancing cultural exchanges, trade, and educational cooperation can build trust and diversify relations beyond political differences.

  • The ongoing oil price tensions

    Why in the News?

    In May 2025, Saudi Arabia led OPEC+ to reverse previous production cuts, sparking a full-fledged oil price war—a new form of global conflict fought aggressively over barrels of crude oil rather than through military aggression.

    What is OPEC+? 

    OPEC+ is a group consisting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plus several non-OPEC oil-producing countries that coordinate their oil production policies to manage global oil supply and influence prices.

    Key points about OPEC+:

    • OPEC: A cartel of 13 major oil-exporting countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, UAE, Nigeria, and others.
    • The “+”: Includes major non-OPEC producers like Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, and others.

    What led OPEC+ to increase oil production in May 2025?

    • Ineffectiveness of previous cuts: Despite voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by eight members in 2023 (including a collective cut of 5 million bpd earlier), oil prices kept declining.
    • Oversupply & competition: New producers (e.g., Brazil, Guyana, shale oil players) increased their market share, reducing OPEC+’s control.
    • Saudi frustration: Overproduction by OPEC+ members like Kazakhstan, Iraq, UAE, and Nigeria undermined collective output discipline.
    • Market flooding strategy: To discipline overproducers and regain market share, Saudi Arabia led a reversal in strategy, increasing output (411,000 bpd) starting June 2025.
    • Preemptive move: Anticipating return of major sanctioned producers (Iran, Venezuela, Russia), OPEC+ may be frontloading production before supply increases further.

    Why is Saudi Arabia called a “swing producer”?

    • Large spare production capacity: It can increase or decrease output swiftly to influence global oil prices.
    • Stabilizing role: Prefers stable and moderately high prices to ensure consistent oil revenue.
    • Historical precedence: Has previously launched price wars (1985–86, 1998, 2014–16, 2020) to discipline the market and punish overproducers.
    • Current context: Took the largest voluntary cut (3 million bpd) in 2024, but shifted to increasing output as a strategic move to reassert influence.

    Who are the key oil producers under U.S. sanctions?

    • Russia: Sanctioned due to the Ukraine conflict and other geopolitical reasons.  
    • Iran: Sanctioned for its nuclear program and regional activities.  
    • Venezuela: Sanctioned for political repression and economic mismanagement.

    How does the oil price war affect India’s economy?

    • Lower Import Bill and Fiscal Savings: Falling oil prices reduce India’s import costs significantly. Eg: In 2024–25, India spent $137 billion on crude imports. A $1 drop in global oil prices can save India roughly $1.5 billion annually.
    • Reduced Export Earnings from Petroleum Products: India exports refined petroleum products, a top export item. Lower crude prices reduce global demand and margins for these exports. Eg: Refinery margins decline, affecting companies like Reliance Industries and Indian Oil Corporation, and reducing foreign exchange earnings.
    • Negative Impact on Gulf Economies and Remittances: Gulf countries face revenue drops, leading to reduced infrastructure spending and job losses for Indian expatriates. Eg: Over 9 million Indians work in the Gulf, sending home more than $50 billion in remittances annually. Job losses or salary cuts can hurt India’s balance of payments.
    • Lower Tax Revenues from Oil Sector: As oil prices drop, the government earns less in excise duties, royalties, and other taxes from oil and gas sales. Eg: The petroleum sector contributes significantly to India’s tax base—lower prices reduce collections, affecting fiscal planning and public spending.
    • Strained Bilateral Economic Ties with Oil Exporters: Economic decline in oil-exporting countries (like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Nigeria) affects India’s project exports, bilateral trade, and inbound investments. Eg: Indian companies working on infrastructure projects in Gulf countries may face payment delays or cancellations due to budgetary constraints in host nations.

    Way forward: 

    • Diversify Energy Sources and Boost Renewables: Reduce dependency on crude oil imports by accelerating adoption of renewable energy, energy efficiency, and alternative fuels like hydrogen and biofuels to enhance energy security.
    • Strengthen Economic Resilience and Diplomatic Engagement: Build strategic petroleum reserves, improve fiscal buffers, and deepen diplomatic ties with diverse energy suppliers to better manage supply shocks and geopolitical risks.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2013] It is said the India has substantial reserves of shale oil and gas, which can feed the needs of country for quarter century. However, tapping of the resources doesn’t appear to be high on the agenda. Discuss critically the availability and issues involved.

    Linkage: It focuses on the potential of unconventional sources like shale oil/gas within India, which could impact its energy security and reduce dependence on imports influenced by global price tensions.

  • Why Northeast-Kolkata link via Myanmar — not Bangladesh — is significant

    Why in the News?

    Recently, the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) has approved a 166.8-km four-lane highway from Shillong to Silchar. This highway will later be extended to Zorinpui in Mizoram and will link the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMMTTP) with a fast road network running through the center of Northeast India.

    What is the Kaladan project’s role in Northeast India’s connectivity?

    • The Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMMTTP) offers a strategic alternative to the narrow and vulnerable Siliguri Corridor (“Chicken’s Neck”), currently the only land route connecting the Northeast to the rest of India. Eg: Direct Kolkata–Mizoram route via Myanmar.
    • The project significantly shortens the transport distance (by around 1,000 km) and time (3–4 days), facilitating faster movement of goods and people, and promoting trade and investment in the resource-rich but infrastructure-poor Northeast.  

    Why have India-Bangladesh ties worsened recently?

    • Political Shift and Leadership Change: The ousting of pro-India Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 disrupted longstanding bilateral ties. Her party, the Awami League, was subsequently banned by the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, raising concerns in India about democratic processes and political inclusivity.
    • Strained Diplomatic Exchanges: Interim leader Muhammad Yunus made statements perceived as antagonistic by India, such as referring to Northeast India as “landlocked” and suggesting Bangladesh as the “only guardian of the ocean.” These remarks, especially during his visit to China, were viewed by India as a shift towards a more China-aligned stance, causing diplomatic unease.
    • Trade Restrictions and Economic Tensions: In response to Bangladesh’s interim government’s approach, India imposed restrictions on Bangladeshi exports to its Northeast region.

    Why has the Kaladan project been delayed?

    • Security Concerns: Ongoing civil unrest in Myanmar, especially in Rakhine State, has disrupted construction and posed risks to workers. Eg: In 2024, the Arakan Army seized Paletwa, making the area unsafe for project activities.
    • Incomplete Infrastructure: Critical segments of the project, especially the road link from Paletwa to Zorinpui, remain unfinished. Eg: The 109 km road stretch needed to connect the waterway to the Indian border is still under construction.
    • Operational Hurdles: Difficult terrain, weak contractor coordination, and reliance on local sub-contracting have caused delays. Eg: Despite awarding the contract to IRCON in 2022, progress has been slow due to logistical difficulties.

    How does the new Shillong-Silchar-Zorinpui highway enhance the connectivity of the Kaladan project?

    • Strategic Redundancy: The highway provides an alternative route to the vulnerable Siliguri Corridor, ensuring uninterrupted access to the Northeast. Eg: In response to Bangladesh’s “landlocked” remark, India approved the ₹22,864 crore Shillong–Silchar highway to bypass Bangladesh.
    • Integrated Multi-Modal Link: It seamlessly connects to the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, facilitating efficient cargo movement between Kolkata and the Northeast. Eg: The Shillong–Silchar highway acts as a continuation of the Kaladan project, linking the Northeast to Kolkata via Myanmar.
    • Economic Development: Enhanced connectivity boosts trade, tourism, and economic activities in the Northeast region. Eg: The new corridor is expected to spur economic development by improving road connectivity and reducing travel time.
    • Reduced Transit Time: The highway shortens travel time between key cities, facilitating faster movement of goods and people. Eg: The 166.8 km highway will cut travel time between Shillong and Silchar from 8.5 hours to 5 hours.

    Way forward: 

    • Strengthen Security and Coordination: Enhance cooperation with Myanmar and local stakeholders to ensure safe and timely completion of the Kaladan project’s remaining sections, addressing security challenges in Rakhine State.
    • Expand Infrastructure Integration: Accelerate development of connecting highways and transport networks in Northeast India to fully leverage the Kaladan corridor for economic growth and strategic resilience.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2013] The protests in Shahbag Square in Dhaka in Bangladesh reveal a fundamental split in society between the nationalists and Islamic forces. What is its significance for India?

    Linkage: The political and social changes happening inside Bangladesh are important for India to understand, because they can affect India’s security and ties with its neighbour. Recently, Bangladesh’s  sentiments (like cut the “Chicken’s Neck” of India) have raised concerns for India, especially around the narrow “Chicken’s Neck” – the only land link between mainland India and the Northeast. That’s why the Kaladan project is very important. It will give the Northeast a direct link to the Bay of Bengal, reducing dependence on Bangladesh.

  • Terror, treaties, and civilisations: Indus through the centuries

    Why in the News?

    On April 22, a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, killed 26 civilians. In response, the Indian government took several diplomatic steps, including suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).

    Why is the Indus Waters Treaty crucial for India-Pakistan ties?

    • Framework for Water Sharing: The IWT provides a clear, legally binding agreement on how the Indus River and its tributaries are shared, reducing the risk of water conflicts between India and Pakistan. Eg: India controls the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), while Pakistan manages the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab), helping avoid disputes over water access.
    • Endurance Amid Political Tensions: Despite wars and terrorist attacks (e.g., 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2019 Pulwama attack), the treaty has endured for over six decades, maintaining a vital channel of cooperation between two hostile neighbors. Eg: Even after the 2019 Pulwama terror attack, the treaty remained a key framework for managing shared water resources.
    • Diplomatic Leverage and Stability: The treaty serves as a strategic tool in diplomatic relations, with India occasionally using it as leverage while ensuring continued water flow, preventing escalation into broader conflict. Eg: After the 2023 Pahalgam attack, India announced suspension of some treaty provisions as a diplomatic response.

    How does climate change affect the Indus Basin?

    • Glacial Melt and Water Flow Variability: The Indus Basin depends heavily on glacier-fed rivers, with about 80% of water coming from glacial melt. Climate change accelerates glacier melting, causing short-term floods and long-term water shortages during dry seasons.
    • Rising Water Demand and Scarcity: Growing population and agricultural needs increase pressure on limited water resources, worsening water scarcity in the basin, especially in Pakistan, where water availability has dropped below critical levels. Eg: Irrigation losses in Pakistan exceed 50% in some areas, threatening food security.
    • Impact on Agriculture and Livelihoods: Reduced and unpredictable water flow due to climate change affects crop yields and fisheries, destabilizing rural economies dependent on the Indus Basin.

    How did colonial irrigation projects influence post-independence water disputes?

    • Extensive Canal Systems Built by British: The British developed large canal networks for irrigation, creating shared water infrastructure across regions. Eg: The 1915 Triple Canal Project linked major tributaries, affecting river flows between future India and Pakistan.
    • Altered Natural River Flow: British dams and barrages controlled floods and irrigation but changed river courses, leading to downstream access issues. Eg: Barrages on the Indus and its tributaries shifted water availability patterns.
    • No Formal Water Sharing Post-Partition: At independence, India and Pakistan inherited interconnected irrigation but lacked agreements on water distribution. Eg: This led to conflicts over the use of eastern and western rivers after 1947.
    • Regional Water Imbalances: Colonial irrigation prioritized certain areas, creating uneven water distribution that fueled disputes. Eg: Punjab’s canal systems served both countries but became points of contention.

    What lessons can India draw from other river treaties? (Way forward)

    • Promote Cooperative Water Management: Successful treaties often emphasize joint management and data sharing to build trust and avoid conflicts. Eg: The Mekong River Commission involves multiple countries collaborating on water usage and flood control.
    • Include Climate Change Adaptation: Modern treaties factor in environmental changes and sustainable usage to address future water challenges. Eg: The Nile Basin Initiative incorporates climate resilience strategies for water-sharing among East African nations.
    • Establish Dispute Resolution Mechanisms: Effective treaties have clear, impartial conflict resolution processes to handle disagreements peacefully. Eg: The Danube River Protection Convention includes mechanisms for arbitration and mediation among European countries.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2020] In what way have the science-based technologies triggered off striking changes in agriculture?

    Linkage: Genome editing is a science-based technology that represents a significant advancement capable of triggering changes in agriculture by developing improved crop varieties.

  • Why UK is tightening immigration rules, how Indians will be affected

    Why in the News?

    Recently, the United Kingdom (UK) has announced new plans to change its immigration rules to reduce the number of people moving to the country.

    What are the key immigration reforms proposed to control net migration?

    • Raising Skilled Worker Visa Threshold: The requirement for the ‘skilled worker’ visa will be raised from the senior secondary level (A-level) back to the degree level. (The previous Conservative government lowered it to A-level in 2020.)
    • Ending Social Care Visas: The UK will no longer issue social care visas to foreign workers, reversing the post-COVID-19 expansion that allowed easier entry for care workers.
    • Reducing Graduate Visa Duration: The graduate visa, which allows international students to stay and work after completing their studies, will be shortened from 2 years to 18 months (3 years for PhD holders).
    • English Language Requirement for Dependents: Dependents of visa holders will now have to meet English language proficiency requirements to promote social integration.
    • Increasing Settlement Period: The minimum qualifying period for ‘settlement’ (permanent residency) will be increased from 5 years to 10 years.

    Why has the UK decided to discontinue social care visas for foreign workers?

    • Increased Migration and Pressure on Services: The rise in social care visas after COVID-19 led to a large influx of foreign care workers, which added strain to public services and housing. Eg: Over 114,000 additional health and care worker visas were issued between 2021 and 2023, mainly to South Asian and African nationals.
    • Reducing Low-Skilled Migration: The government plans to reduce low-skilled migration by raising visa requirements, such as increasing the skill level from A-level to a degree. Eg: Social care sector.
    • Promoting Domestic Workforce Development: There is a push to invest in training and apprenticeships for UK residents instead of relying on imported cheap labour. Eg: PM Starmer highlighted the need to focus on local skills development rather than importing workers in sectors like social care.

    Who are the major beneficiaries of the UK’s visa ?

    • South Asian Nationals: A large number of work visas were issued to workers from India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Eg: Many Indian care workers received health and care visas between 2021 and 2023.
    • Sub-Saharan African Nationals: Significant numbers of care workers came from countries like Zimbabwe, Ghana, and Nigeria. Eg: The visa route helped fill care sector jobs with workers from these African nations.

    How have Indian students and workers been affected by recent changes in UK visa policies?

    • Shorter Post-Study Work Visa: Graduate visa reduced from 2 years to 18 months, limiting job opportunities for Indian students. Eg, many now have less time to build careers in the UK.
    • Higher Skill Requirements: Skilled worker visas now require a degree-level qualification, excluding some mid-skilled jobs. Eg, Indian engineers and healthcare workers face stricter eligibility.
    • English Language Rules for Dependents: Dependents must meet English proficiency requirements to promote integration. Eg, Indian families may find it harder to join relatives.
    • Longer Residency for Settlement: Permanent residency eligibility increased from 5 to 10 years. Eg, Indians must wait longer to settle permanently.
    • Increased Tuition Costs: Proposed 6% fee levy on international students raises study costs. Eg, this could discourage Indian students from studying in the UK.

    Way forward: 

    • Enhance Domestic Skill Development: Invest significantly in vocational training and apprenticeships to reduce dependency on low-skilled foreign labour and create local employment opportunities.
    • Balance Migration Policies: Implement targeted immigration reforms that maintain the UK’s competitiveness in attracting global talent while ensuring sustainable public service capacity and social integration.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2023] Indian diaspora has scaled new heights in the West. Describe its economic and political benefits for India.

    Linkage: The tightening of immigration rules in Western countries like the UK directly impacts the size, composition, and potential “scaling of new heights” of the diaspora, and thus implicitly affects the economic and political benefits for India.

  • Big deal: On the U.S.-China trade deal

    Why in the News?

    Recently, the U.S. has agreed to temporarily reduce its tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days, while China will lower its tariffs on American products from 125% to 10%.

    What are the key terms of the U.S.-China trade truce?

    • Tariff Reductions: The U.S. has temporarily lowered tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and China has reduced its duties on American imports from 125% to 10%.
    • 90-day Breather: The reprieve is limited to 90 days, giving both sides a window for further negotiations.
    • Global Market Response: The announcement led to a 2%-3.8% rise in markets worldwide, reflecting investor relief.
    • Exclusion from Previous Pause: Earlier, in April, the U.S. had excluded China from a 90-day reciprocal tariff pause, indicating that this thaw represents a strategic pivot.

    Why has the U.S. trade deficit with China remained unresolved despite the tariff rollback?

    • Temporary and Limited Rollback of Tariffs: The U.S. reduced tariffs from 145% to 30% only for 90 days, which is not a permanent structural solution. Eg: Such short-term measures may ease tensions but do not address long-term trade imbalances rooted in production and consumption patterns.
    • Core Issue of Trade Imbalance Not Addressed: The agreement focuses on reducing tariffs but does not compel China to increase imports of U.S. goods or alter its export-driven model. Eg: The U.S. continues to import large volumes of electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals from China while exporting relatively fewer goods.

    How might the U.S.-China agreement affect India’s position in the China+1 manufacturing strategy?

    • Reduced Urgency for Diversification: The easing of tensions may lead global firms to reconsider shifting away from China, reducing momentum behind the China+1 strategy. Eg: Companies that were exploring alternatives like India or Vietnam may delay or reverse their relocation plans.
    • India’s Limited Gains from China+1 Exposed: India has not fully leveraged the China+1 opportunity due to infrastructure and policy bottlenecks, making it less competitive. Eg: Despite global supply chain shifts during the trade war, India attracted far less investment than Vietnam or Indonesia in electronics and apparel sectors.
    • Renewed Focus on China’s Scale and Efficiency: Investors might return to China due to its unmatched manufacturing scale, efficient logistics, and mature supply chains. Eg: Apple’s decision to continue manufacturing a large share of its products in China despite exploring India illustrates the challenge India faces in replacing China.
    Note: China+1 is a business strategy adopted by multinational companies to diversify their manufacturing operations and supply chains beyond China, by adding at least one other country—hence “China plus one”.

    What challenges does India face in its trade negotiations with the U.S.?

    • Retaliatory Tariff Pressures: India has had to respond to U.S. tariff hikes on steel and aluminium with potential reciprocal measures, increasing trade tension. Eg: After the U.S. imposed duties under Section 232, India notified the WTO of its plan to raise tariffs on American products like almonds and apples.
    • Pending Comprehensive Trade Agreement: Despite ongoing talks, both countries have struggled to finalize a broad-based trade deal due to divergent priorities and domestic pressures. Eg: Disagreements over market access for U.S. dairy products and medical devices have repeatedly stalled progress on a bilateral trade pact.
    • Impact of U.S.-China Trade Developments: A thaw in U.S.-China trade ties may reduce Washington’s interest in deepening trade relations with India, limiting India’s leverage. Eg: If U.S. firms regain confidence in China post-agreement, India may lose the strategic advantage it gained during earlier trade disruptions.

    Why must Indian States implement labour and land reforms to reduce dependence on Chinese imports?

    What are the steps taken by the Indian government? 

    • Labour Law Reforms to Boost Ease of Doing Business: The Indian government has amended labour laws to make it easier for industries to hire and fire workers, fostering a more flexible labour market. Eg: The Code on Industrial Relations (2020) consolidates multiple labour laws and provides greater flexibility for businesses to operate efficiently.
    • Land Acquisition and Infrastructure Development: The government has streamlined land acquisition processes and enhanced infrastructure to attract investments in manufacturing. Eg: The National Industrial Corridor Development Corporation (NICDC) is developing dedicated industrial zones with improved connectivity and land acquisition processes to boost manufacturing.

    Way forward: 

    • Enhance Policy Frameworks: India should strengthen its infrastructure, labor, and land reforms to offer a more competitive and attractive environment for global companies, ensuring it can capitalize on the China+1 strategy.
    • Focus on Technology and Skill Development: India must invest in advanced manufacturing technologies and skill development to match China’s scale and efficiency, thus making itself a more viable alternative for global supply chains.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2018] How would the recent phenomena of protectionism and currency manipulations in world trade affect macroeconomic stability of India?

    Linkage: The US-China trade deal, as described in the article arose from a “tense global trade environment” involving “tariffs being ratcheted up by both sides”. This context of rising protectionism and trade tensions between major powers directly relates to the “phenomena of protectionism” mentioned in this PYQ and its potential impact on India’s macroeconomic stability.

  • [pib] Group of Friends of Traditional Medicine (GFTM) 

    Why in the News?

    The Sixth Meeting of the Group of Friends of Traditional Medicine (GFTM) was hosted by the Permanent Mission of India in Geneva.

    About Group of Friends of Traditional Medicine (GFTM):

    • GFTM is an informal platform launched by India in May 2023 under the WHO to promote cooperation on traditional medicine.
    • It is coordinated via India’s Permanent Mission in Geneva; it hosts regular meetings to explore integration of traditional systems into health strategies.
    • It supports global efforts like the WHO Traditional Medicine Strategy 2025–2034, fostering knowledge exchange and research collaboration.
    • It focuses on policy development, capacity building, and scientific validation of traditional practices.
    • It builds momentum for global events such as the WHO Global Traditional Medicine Summit and World Health Assembly sessions.

    India’s Key Initiatives in Traditional Medicine:

    The National AYUSH Mission (NAM) promotes Ayurveda, Yoga, Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha, and Homeopathy through dedicated facilities and education. Key efforts include:

    • Establishment of Ayush Arogya Mandirs (wellness centres) for integrated care.
    • Expansion of insurance coverage for AYUSH treatments.
    • Promotion of collaborative research with DBT, DST, ICMR, and CSIR.
    • Use of AI, genomics, and bioinformatics to bolster scientific credibility.
    • Strengthening of global outreach via bilateral agreements, international events, and multilateral platforms.
    [UPSC 2019] How is the Government of India protecting traditional knowledge of medicine from patenting by pharmaceutical companies?

     

  • Self-Defence Clause in Global Law

    Why in the News?

    India and Pakistan agreed to cease all firing and military actions following precision strikes by India under Operation Sindoor as a Self-Defence against the Pahalgam massacre that killed 26 civilians.

    About Right to Self-Defence under UN Charter:

    • The United Nations Charter generally prohibits the use of force under Article 2(4).
    • Article 51 provides an exception, permitting the use of force in self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member State.
    • The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in Nicaragua v. U.S. (1986) interpreted “armed attack” as the gravest form of the use of force.
    • The right of self-defence is subject to two key conditions:
      1. Necessity: The force must be essential to respond to an armed attack.
      2. Proportionality: The response must not exceed what is required to repel the attack.
    • Under Article 51, states must immediately notify the UN Security Council (UNSC) of any action taken in self-defence.
    • In India’s case, the May 7, 2025 missile strikes were described as a “measured response” to the Pahalgam massacre, implying invocation of Article 51, though not explicitly stated.
    • India’s May 8 briefing to 13 of 15 UNSC members was likely in fulfilment of this reporting obligation.

    ‘Unwilling or Unable’ Doctrine:

    • This is an emerging principle in international law, particularly after 9/11.
    • It allows a state to use self-defensive force against non-state actors operating from another state’s territory if that state is:
      • Unwilling or
      • Unable to stop the threat.
    • It was prominently invoked by the US:
      • In 2011 (killing of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan).
      • In 2014 (airstrikes on ISIS in Syria).
    • However, it is criticised by countries like Russia, China, and Mexico for undermining state sovereignty and the UN system.

    India’s Stance:

    • India’s position is unclear but evolving. At a UNSC Arria Formula meeting in Feb 2021, India listed 3 conditions:
    1. The non-state actor has repeatedly attacked the state.
    2. The host state is unwilling to neutralize the threat.
    3. The host state actively supports or sponsors the non-state actor.
    • Legal scholars note it is uncertain if these conditions are cumulative or independent.
    • In response to the Pahalgam attack, India accused Pakistan of inaction and labelled it a safe haven for terrorists.
    • This suggests implicit reliance on the “unwilling or unable” doctrine, though it is not codified in customary international law.
    [UPSC 2005] Consider the following statements:

    1. The Charter of the United Nations Organization was adopted at Geneva, Switzerland in June, 1945;

    2. India was admitted to the United Nations Organization in the year 1945;

    3. The Trusteeship Council of the United Nations Organization was established to manage the affairs of territories detached from Japan and Italy after WWII.

    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

    Options: (a) 1, 2 and 3 (b) 2 only* (c) 1 and 3 (d) 3 only

     

  • Caution and optimism: On India’s FTA with the United Kingdom

    Why in the News?

    India and the United Kingdom have signed a landmark Free Trade Agreement (FTA), under which 99% of Indian exports to the U.K. will have no import duties, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced on Tuesday.

    Free Trade Agreement

    What are the key benefits for India under the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the United Kingdom?

    • Zero-Duty Access for 99% of Indian Exports: This significantly enhances India’s export competitiveness in the U.K. market. Eg: Indian gems and jewellery, apparel, and engineering goods will enter the U.K. without customs duties, making them more attractive to British buyers.
    • Social Security Relief for Indian Workers in the U.K: Indian professionals and their employers will be exempt from social security contributions for up to 3 years. Eg: Indian IT professionals on temporary assignments in the U.K. will take home higher net salaries, encouraging Indian firms to send more workers abroad.
    • Boost to Services Trade and Investment Flows: The FTA facilitates easier movement of professionals and investors, promoting service sector growth and foreign direct investment (FDI). Eg: Indian consultancy firms or startups may find it easier to operate or invest in the U.K., supporting India’s goal of becoming a services export hub.

    Who are the major Indian stakeholders expressing optimism about the FTA with the U.K., and why?

    • Engineering Goods Sector: Expects a significant boost in exports due to reduced or zero tariffs. Eg: The Engineering Export Promotion Council (EEPC) projects engineering exports to the U.K. to nearly double to $7.55 billion by 2029-30.
    • Apparel and Textile Industry: Gains price competitiveness in the U.K. market through zero-duty access. Eg: Indian garments become more competitive against Bangladeshi or Vietnamese exports, enhancing market share in Europe.
    • Gems and Jewellery Sector: Welcomes duty-free access for high-value products, boosting profitability. Eg: Indian jewellers can export gold and diamond jewellery to the U.K. with lower cost structures.
    • Information Technology (IT) and Professional Services: Benefits from easier mobility and recognition of qualifications for professionals. Eg: Indian IT firms can deploy professionals to the U.K. more efficiently, with less visa friction.
    • Indian Employers of Workers in the U.K: Gain from exemption from social security contributions for Indian workers temporarily in the U.K. Eg: Firms hiring Indian talent in the U.K. will save on mandatory contributions for 3 years, reducing costs and encouraging cross-border placements.

    Why are Indian farmer organisations opposing the India-U.K. FTA?

    • Threat from Imported Agricultural Products: Reduced tariffs on U.K. agri-exports like lamb, salmon, and dairy products may hurt Indian farmers. Eg: Cheaper U.K. lamb and salmon could enter the Indian market, undercutting local producers who already operate on thin margins.
    • Concerns Over Low-Income, Low-Margin Conditions: Indian farmers fear intensified competition could worsen their already precarious economic situation. Eg: Many Indian farmers rely on traditional and small-scale farming, which cannot compete with heavily subsidised U.K. agriculture.
    • Lack of Protective Mechanisms: The FTA lacks clear safeguards to protect Indian farmers from market shocks due to sudden import surges. Eg: No countervailing duties or quotas have been announced to cushion farmers from a flood of imported agri-goods.

    How could the India-U.K. FTA influence future trade agreements with the European Union and the United States?

    • Establishing a Negotiation Template: The India-U.K. FTA may serve as a reference framework for structuring future trade deals. Eg: If India agrees to liberalise tariffs on 85% of imports from the U.K., similar expectations may arise in talks with the EU and U.S..
    • Precedent for Sensitive Sector Concessions: Concessions on agricultural and alcohol imports set a precedent for market access in sensitive sectors. Eg: The cut in whiskey and gin tariffs for the U.K. may lead to similar demands from U.S. bourbon producers or EU wine exporters.
    • Pressure on Domestic Manufacturing and Policy: As India lowers duties and opens its markets, pressure may grow on its industrial and trade policy in upcoming FTAs. Eg: With less than 2% share in global exports, India’s manufacturing sector could be exposed if future FTAs follow the U.K. model without strong support policies.

    Way forward: 

    • Safeguard Vulnerable Sectors: Introduce protective clauses such as trigger safeguards, quotas, or phased liberalisation to shield Indian farmers and MSMEs from import surges. Eg: Gradual tariff cuts with review mechanisms for sensitive agri-products.
    • Strengthen Domestic Competitiveness: Enhance manufacturing capacity, R&D incentives, and export infrastructure to fully capitalise on new market access. Eg: Support engineering and textile sectors with technology upgradation and logistics hubs.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2024] The West is fostering India as an alternative to reduce dependence on China’s supply chain and as a strategic ally to counter China’s political and economic dominance.’ Explain this statement with examples.

    Linkage: The India-UK FTA, and its potential use as a template for agreements with the EU and the US mentioned in article, can be viewed within the broader context of strengthening India’s economic and strategic ties with Western countries. This PYQ explores the reasons behind such partnerships, which provides a geopolitical backdrop to India’s trade negotiations with the UK and other Western nations.

  • [pib] Quad Indo-Pacific Logistics Network (IPLN)

    Why in the News?

    The Quad nations—India, Australia, Japan, and the United States—conducted a Tabletop Exercise (TTX) in Honolulu, Hawaii to simulate the launch of the Indo-Pacific Logistics Network (IPLN).

    About IPLN (Indo-Pacific Logistics Network)

    • The IPLN is a Quad-led initiative focused on coordinating shared logistics for civilian disaster response across the Indo-Pacific region.
    • It aims to enable the rapid deployment of humanitarian aid during natural disasters such as cyclones, tsunamis, and public health emergencies.
    • The initiative strengthens interoperability, resource-sharing, and real-time coordination among the four Quad countries — India, the US, Japan, and Australia.
    • Key features of IPLN include digital logistics mapping, joint resource planning, and real-time tracking capabilities.
    • IPLN was launched through a Tabletop Exercise (TTX) held in Honolulu, Hawaii from April 28 to May 2, 2025.
    • The initiative complements other Quad efforts like the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA) and the Quad Pandemic Preparedness Workshop.
    • IPLN reinforces the Quad’s broader goal of acting as :a “force for good” in the Indo-Pacific region.

    Back2Basics: QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue)

    • The QUAD is a strategic forum comprising India, the United States, Japan, and Australia, aiming to promote a free, open, inclusive, and rules-based Indo-Pacific.
    • It does not have a formal structure but functions through summits, ministerial meetings, joint exercises, and policy alignment.
    • Its core objectives include countering China’s influence, and supporting democratic values, human rights, and the rule of law.
    • The group originated in 2004 during the Indian Ocean tsunami relief efforts and was formally proposed in 2007 by Japanese PM Shinzo Abe.
    • Although suspended in 2008, the Quad was revived in 2017 due to emerging regional challenges and cooperation needs.
    • Notable activities include the Malabar Naval Exercises, and initiatives like IPMDA, Quad Fellowship, Open RAN, and AI-ENGAGE, emphasizing humanitarian aid, disaster relief, and emerging technology collaboration.

     

    [UPSC 2023] With reference to India’s projects on connectivity, consider the following statements:

    1. East-West Corridor under Golden Quadrilateral Project connects Dibrugarh and Surat.

    2. Trilateral Highway connects Moreh in Manipur and Chiang Mai in Thailand via Myanmar.

    3. Bangladesh-China -India -Myanmar Economic Corridor connects Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh with Kunming in China.

    How many of the above statements are correct?

    Options: (a) Only one (b) Only two (c) All three* (d) None