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Subject: International Relations

  • Should the free movement regime between India and Myanmar remain?

    Why in the News?

    In February 2024, Union Home Minister Amit Shah announced plans to end the Free Movement Regime (FMR) along the Myanmar border. However, so far, there has been no official notification from the Ministry of External Affairs or any formal agreement with Myanmar on this matter.

    What are the historical and socio-cultural reasons behind the implementation of the Free Movement Regime (FMR) along the India-Myanmar border?

    • Ethnic and Familial Ties Across the Border: The India-Myanmar border cuts across communities with shared ancestry, language, and traditions. Ethnic groups such as the Chin, Mizo, Kuki, and Naga tribes live on both sides and consider themselves part of the same cultural identity.
      • Example: The Mizo people in Mizoram and the Chin people in Myanmar share deep kinship ties and often intermarry, making border restrictions impractical for their social and economic interactions.
    • Pre-Colonial Trade and Historical Linkages: Before colonial rule, there were no rigid boundaries, and people freely moved for trade, festivals, and religious practices. The FMR formalized this long-standing tradition.
      • Example: The Naga tribes have historically maintained trade and social connections between Nagaland and the Sagaing Region of Myanmar, exchanging goods such as textiles, salt, and agricultural produce.
    • Post-Independence Border Division Without Local Consent: The Indo-Myanmar border was drawn by the British without consulting local communities, splitting ethnic groups across two nations. The FMR was introduced in 1968 to ease movement and mitigate the negative impact of artificial boundaries.
      • Example: The Kuki and Zomi tribes in Manipur and Myanmar continue to see themselves as a single community despite the international border, and FMR allows them to maintain their cultural and familial ties.

    Why do Mizoram and Nagaland oppose scrapping the FMR, while Manipur supports it?

    • Reasons for Opposition (Mizoram & Nagaland)
      • Ethnic & Cultural Ties: The Mizo and Naga communities share deep historical and familial ties with tribes across the Myanmar border. Example: Many Mizos have Chin relatives in Myanmar, and restricting movement disrupts social and economic relations.
      • Humanitarian Concerns: Mizoram and Nagaland emphasize providing refuge to Myanmar nationals fleeing conflict and persecution. Example: Mizoram has sheltered thousands of Chin refugees since the military coup in Myanmar (2021).
      • Economic & Livelihood Impact: Many border communities depend on cross-border trade and traditional exchanges. Example: Mizoram’s barter trade with Myanmar sustains rural economies.
    • Reasons for Support (Manipur)
      • Security Concerns: Manipur sees unrestricted movement as a risk to security, citing arms smuggling and insurgency threats. Example: The state government has linked rising violence to unchecked cross-border infiltration.
      • Demographic & Political Factors: Manipur fears an influx of migrants could alter its demographic balance and strain resources. Example: Tensions have risen between local communities and Kuki-Zo refugees from Myanmar.

    What challenges does the Indian government face in implementing border fencing along the 1,653-km-long India-Myanmar border?

    • Ethnic and Tribal Opposition: Several ethnic groups, such as the Nagas, Kukis, Mizos, and Chins, have strong familial and cultural ties across the border. Fencing would disrupt their traditional movement and economic activities.  
    • Difficult Terrain and Dense Forests: The India-Myanmar border passes through hilly terrain, dense forests, and riverine areas, making it logistically challenging to construct and maintain a continuous fence. Example: The rugged terrain of Manipur’s Moreh-Tamu sector complicates infrastructure development and patrolling efforts.
    • Security and Insurgency Issues: The region is home to various insurgent groups, including NSCN-K (Naga), PLA (Manipur), and Chin National Army (Myanmar), who use the porous border for movement and arms smuggling. Fencing alone may not curb insurgency without enhanced intelligence and cooperation with Myanmar.
      • Example: The Manipur-based People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has reportedly used Myanmar as a base for launching attacks in India.
    • Impact on Free Movement Regime (FMR): The Free Movement Regime (FMR) allows people from border villages to travel up to 16 km inside each other’s territory without a visa. Fencing would disrupt this agreement, leading to resistance from local communities and potential diplomatic strain with Myanmar.
      • Example: The border trade hub of Moreh (Manipur) and Tamu (Myanmar) benefits from FMR, and restrictions could harm livelihoods.
    • High Financial and Maintenance Costs: Constructing a fence across 1,653 km of difficult terrain requires massive financial investment and continuous maintenance due to landslides, heavy rainfall, and natural degradation.
      • Example: The fencing project in Manipur was delayed multiple times due to cost escalations and environmental challenges, making large-scale fencing impractical.

    What alternatives balance national security and border community interests instead of scrapping the FMR? (Way forward)

    • Strengthening Smart Surveillance and Border Management: Deploying technology-driven surveillance (such as drones, infrared sensors, and biometric tracking) can help secure the border without disrupting traditional movement.
      • Example: India has successfully used the Comprehensive Integrated Border Management System (CIBMS) along the India-Bangladesh border, which could be adapted for the India-Myanmar border.
    • Regulated Border Trade and Movement Checkpoints: Instead of a blanket ban, regulated border entry points with biometric verification can ensure security while allowing legal movement under the FMR. More trade facilitation centers can also boost local economies.
      • Example: The Moreh-Tamu border trade point in Manipur enables legitimate economic exchanges while maintaining oversight over cross-border movement.
    • Enhanced Cooperation with Myanmar for Joint Patrolling: Strengthening bilateral cooperation for joint border patrolling and intelligence sharing can help curb insurgency and illegal activities while maintaining local mobility.

    Mains PYQ:

    Question: Analyze internal security threats and transborder crimes along Myanmar, Bangladesh and Pakistan borders including Line of Control (LoC). Also discuss the role played by various security forces in this regard. (UPSC 2020)

    Linkage: This question linked India Myanmar border issues. It requires an analysis of these issues specifically concerning the Indo-Myanmar border and the role of security forces in managing them.

  • The ‘Great Abandonment’ of Afghanistan

    Why in the News?

    The U.S. and Europe have stepped back from Afghanistan’s issues, and India should be concerned about losing influence among Afghans.

    What are the key reasons behind India’s shift in its engagement policy with the Taliban government in Afghanistan?

    • Geopolitical Realism and Regional Stability: India recognises that the Taliban regime is a reality and is engaging pragmatically to safeguard its interests.Example: India reopened its “technical mission” in Kabul (2022) to oversee humanitarian aid and maintain limited diplomatic channels.
    • Countering Pakistan and China’s Influence: Pakistan and China have deepened their engagement with the Taliban, influencing Afghanistan’s policies. Example: China signed agreements with the Taliban on infrastructure and rare earth mining, pushing India to maintain a strategic foothold.
    • Security Concerns and Terrorism Threats: Engagement allows India to monitor Taliban factions and ensure they do not support anti-India terror groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM). Example: India’s quiet diplomacy with Taliban leaders like Sher Abbas Stanekzai helps in intelligence-sharing on terrorist threats.
    • Economic and Infrastructure Interests: India has invested over $3 billion in Afghan infrastructure, including the Salma Dam and Zaranj-Delaram Highway. Example: Talks on reviving Chabahar port connectivity and resuming development projects indicate India’s strategic economic interests.
    • Humanitarian Assistance and People-to-People Ties: India’s aid and engagement help maintain goodwill among Afghan citizens, which could be useful in the long run. Example: India has sent 50,000 metric tonnes of wheat and medical supplies to Afghanistan despite diplomatic tensions.

    Why is India hesitant to provide visas to Afghan refugees?  

    • Security Concerns and Risk of Infiltration: India fears that some refugees could have ties to terrorist groups like the Haqqani Network, LeT, or JeM, posing a national security risk. Example: Indian intelligence agencies raised concerns that Taliban-linked elements could exploit the visa process for entry.
    • Political and Ideological Considerations: The government is cautious about allowing large-scale migration of Afghan refugees, aligning with its broader immigration policy.Example: India has prioritized granting visas to Hindus and Sikhs from Afghanistan while restricting others.
    • Lack of a Comprehensive Refugee Policy: India is not a signatory to the 1951 UN Refugee Convention, and its refugee policies are ad hoc and politically driven. Example: Unlike Germany or Canada, India lacks a legal framework for recognizing and resettling Afghan refugees.
    • Diplomatic Calculations and Taliban Relations: India does not want to openly oppose the Taliban by granting asylum to its critics, as it seeks to maintain diplomatic engagement with the regime. Example: Unlike during the Northern Alliance era, India has not offered safe passage to anti-Taliban leaders.
    • Economic and Logistical Constraints: Providing visas and long-term support for a large refugee influx would require financial and administrative resources that India is reluctant to allocate. Example: During the 2021 Taliban takeover, thousands of Afghans, including students and former Indian allies, applied for emergency visas, but only a small fraction were granted entry.

    How can India balance its strategic interests in Afghanistan while ensuring support for Afghan civil society and opposition groups?

    • Dual Engagement Strategy: India should maintain diplomatic ties with the Taliban government for security and economic interests while also engaging with Afghan opposition groups and civil society. Example: India’s past engagement with the Northern Alliance in the 1990s, alongside its outreach to the Afghan Republic (2001-2021), showcases a balanced approach.
    • Humanitarian and Development Aid: Continuing humanitarian assistance such as food, medical supplies, and education programs can support Afghan civilians without directly endorsing the Taliban. Example: India has provided wheat, vaccines, and essential medicines to Afghanistan through international organizations like the UN.
    • Support for Afghan Refugees and Students: Granting visas and scholarships to Afghan students, women, and activists can help sustain Afghanistan’s civil society and ensure long-term goodwill. Example: India’s ICCR scholarship program for Afghan students helped many pursue higher education in India before 2021.
    • Leveraging Regional and International Partnerships: Engaging with like-minded countries (e.g., Iran, Russia, Central Asian nations) and multilateral forums (e.g., UN, SCO) to ensure a collective approach toward Afghan stability. Example: India’s participation in the Moscow Format Talks and its collaboration with Iran on the Chabahar port for trade connectivity.
    • Cultural and People-to-People Ties: Hosting Afghan cultural events, supporting Afghan media in exile, and fostering connections between Afghan intellectuals and Indian institutions can preserve historical ties. Example: India has previously hosted Afghan leaders and artists, maintaining its soft power influence despite regime changes.

    Way forward: 

    • Strengthening Strategic and Humanitarian Engagement: India should expand its humanitarian assistance through trusted international organizations while exploring avenues for economic cooperation that align with its security interests.
    • Institutionalizing a Long-Term Afghanistan Policy: India should formulate a structured Afghanistan policy that balances security, economic, and humanitarian interests while ensuring protection for Afghan civil society.

    Mains PYQ:

    Question: Discuss the geopolitical and geostrategic importance of Maldives for India with a focus on global trade and energy flows. Further also discuss how this relationship affects India’s maritime security and regional stability amidst international competition. (UPSC 2024)

    Reason: The demand of the question directly linked with the “why India’s relations with its neighbors are crucial for regional stability and its own security” for example the situation in Afghanistan after the “Great Abandonment” affects stability in the region, and India’s approach to its neighbors should be understood in this larger context.

  • China ties — beware conciliation without deterrence 

    Why in the News?

    India is adopting a conciliatory approach towards China, with improving ties since the 2020 border clashes.

    Why has India adopted a more conciliatory stance towards China in recent months?

    • De-escalation of Border Tensions: India and China have gradually disengaged from multiple friction points along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) since the 2020 Galwan clashes. Example: In October 2023, both sides agreed to withdraw troops from the last two major standoff points in eastern Ladakh.
    • Economic Considerations: China remains India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching record levels despite political tensions. Example: In 2023, India’s imports from China exceeded $100 billion, highlighting the economic interdependence.
    • Strategic Uncertainty in U.S. Policy: With the U.S. showing unpredictability under the Trump administration, India may seek to hedge its bets by stabilizing ties with China. Example: Trump’s reluctance to support Ukraine and potential shifts in U.S. Asia policy raise concerns about long-term American commitments.
    • Focus on Domestic Growth and Development: India aims to maintain economic stability and avoid prolonged military confrontations that could divert resources from development. Example: Infrastructure projects like “Make in India” and semiconductor manufacturing require a stable geopolitical environment.
    • Maintaining Diplomatic Leverage: A balanced approach allows India to engage with multiple global powers while keeping strategic options open. Example: While signaling reconciliation with China, India continues military exercises with the Quad (U.S., Japan, Australia) to maintain leverage.

    How does the shifting U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration impact India’s strategic choices regarding China?

    • Uncertainty Over U.S. Security Commitments: Trump’s ambiguous stance on global security, including reduced support for Ukraine, raises doubts about America’s reliability in countering China’s aggression. Example: The U.S. halted intelligence sharing on Russian missile threats to Ukraine, signaling potential unpredictability in military alliances.
    • Possibility of a U.S.-China Grand Bargain: Trump’s transactional diplomacy suggests he may prioritize economic deals with China over strategic containment, potentially sidelining India’s concerns. Example: His approach to Russia—offering compromises for economic gains—hints at a similar possibility with China, affecting Indo-U.S. strategic alignment.
    • Pressure on India to Strengthen Self-Reliance: With the U.S. potentially scaling back its role in Asia, India must enhance its military capabilities and deepen partnerships with other allies. Example: India has intensified defense cooperation with Japan, Australia, and France while increasing indigenous military production (e.g., Tejas fighter jets, submarine projects).

    What military limitations has India faced in recent years despite rising security challenges?

    • Delayed Modernization and Declining Defense Budget: India’s defense spending as a share of GDP has steadily declined over the past decade, limiting critical investments in military modernization. Example: The Indian Air Force still operates outdated MiG-21 fighters, with delays in acquiring Rafale jets and indigenous Tejas aircraft.
    • Slow Progress in Indigenous Defense Manufacturing: Despite initiatives like Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-Reliant India), India remains dependent on foreign arms suppliers, leading to procurement delays. Example: The Project 75I submarine program has seen repeated delays, affecting the Navy’s ability to counter China’s growing maritime presence.
    • Limited Military Buildup Despite Border Tensions: After the 2020 Ladakh standoff, India disengaged from key incursion sites but did not significantly increase troop deployments or infrastructure in vulnerable areas. Example: While China rapidly built roads, bridges, and airstrips near the Line of Actual Control (LAC), India’s infrastructure development in border areas has lagged.

    Who are India’s key partners in military cooperation? 

    • United States (U.S.): India and the U.S. have strengthened defense ties through agreements like COMCASA, BECA, and LEMOA, facilitating intelligence sharing and logistics support. Example: India participates in the Malabar naval exercise with the U.S., enhancing interoperability in the Indo-Pacific region.
    • Russia: Russia remains a key defense supplier, providing advanced weaponry, including fighter jets, submarines, and missile systems. Example: India procured the S-400 air defense system from Russia despite U.S. pressure and CAATSA sanctions concerns.
    • France: France is a crucial partner in aerospace and naval defense cooperation, supplying high-end military equipment. Example: India acquired Rafale fighter jets from France and is collaborating on Scorpene-class submarines under Project 75.
    • Israel: India-Israel defense ties focus on advanced technology, particularly in missile defense, drones, and cyber warfare. Example: India procured Barak-8 missile defense systems and Heron UAVs from Israel for border security.
    • Quad Partners (Japan & Australia): India’s partnerships with Japan and Australia focus on maritime security, intelligence sharing, and defense exercises. Example: The India-Japan 2+2 ministerial dialogue and AUSINDEX naval exercise with Australia boost strategic ties in the Indo-Pacific.

    How can operational coordination help strengthen India’s strategic position? (Way forward)

    • Enhanced Interoperability with Allies: Regular joint exercises improve coordination between India and its military partners, ensuring seamless cooperation in real-world conflicts. Example: The Malabar Naval Exercise with the U.S., Japan, and Australia enhances India’s naval capabilities in the Indo-Pacific.
    • Force Multiplication through Intelligence Sharing: Coordinated intelligence sharing provides India with real-time situational awareness, helping in threat assessment and strategic planning. Example: BECA agreement with the U.S. enables India to access geospatial intelligence, improving precision targeting and surveillance.
    • Deterrence Against Aggression: Strengthened operational coordination signals military preparedness, discouraging adversaries from engaging in aggressive actions. Example: Joint patrols with France in the Indian Ocean demonstrate India’s extended reach and deterrence capabilities.

    Mains PYQ:

    Question: ‘The West is fostering India as an alternative to reduce dependence on China’s supply chain and as a strategic ally to counter China’s political and economic dominance.’ Explain this statement with examples. (UPSC 2024)

    Reason: This question directly addresses the strategic implications of China’s rise and India’s potential role in countering it, which is relevant to the theme of deterrence.

  • [22nd March 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Charting a route for IORA under India’s chairship

    PYQ Relevance:

    Question: Do you think that BIMSTEC is a parallel organisation like the SAARC? What are the similarities and dissimilarities between the two? How are Indian foreign policy objectives realized by forming this new organisation? (2022)

    Reason: This question explores India’s engagement with other regional groupings. India’s experience with BIMSTEC, its objectives, and the lessons learned in fostering regional cooperation can inform its approach and strategy as the chair of IORA. It also touches upon how India uses multilateral platforms to achieve its foreign policy goals, a key aspect of its IORA leadership.

     

    Mentor’s Comment: The Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) held its Council of Ministers (COM) meeting in Colombo on October 11, 2024, with the theme “Reinforcing Indian Ocean Identity.” Foreign ministers and senior officials from its 23 member countries attended the event. In 2024, many other countries, especially “dialogue partners” or those wanting to join as dialogue partners, showed great interest in the organization. IORA, founded 26 years ago, is believed to have been an idea originally proposed by former South African President Nelson Mandela.

    Today’s editorial discusses issues related to the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and India’s role in it, which is useful for GS Paper 2 in International Relations.

    _

    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    New Delhi should create a strong base for effective governance that works at the local level and brings real impact.

    What are the key priorities for India as it prepares to chair the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA)?

    • Enhancing Funding Opportunities: India can engage private sector players like shipping companies (Maersk, Adani Ports), oil & gas firms (ONGC, Reliance), and marine tourism operators to contribute financially to IORA’s initiatives.
    • Strengthening Maritime Security & Safety: Expanding India’s Information Fusion Centre – Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR) in Gurugram to enhance real-time maritime surveillance and counter threats like piracy, illegal fishing, and trafficking.
    • Integrating Technology for Data Management & Policy Analysis: Promoting AI-driven marine data analytics to track ocean health, predict climate change impacts, and improve fisheries management across IORA nations.
    • Developing Maritime Education & Skill-Based Training: Partnering with institutions like IIT-Madras and NIOT (National Institute of Ocean Technology) to create specialized courses in marine economy, deep-sea exploration, and coastal governance.
    • Strengthening Blue Economy & Sustainable Practices: Collaborating with Australia for marine research, UAE for investment in sustainable fisheries, and Seychelles for traditional knowledge on marine conservation to develop eco-friendly economic growth models.

    Why is funding a major challenge for IORA? 

    • Dependence on Member Contributions: IORA’s budget is primarily dependent on contributions from its 23 member states, most of which are developing economies. For example, Only a few countries like Singapore, UAE, and France have the financial capability to contribute significantly, while others struggle to meet commitments.
    • Limited Private Sector Involvement: IORA lacks strong partnerships with private enterprises, which could provide alternative funding sources. For example, Industries related to shipping, oil & gas, fisheries, and marine tourism are key players in the region but are not formally involved in IORA’s funding model.
    • Comparatively Small Budget: IORA’s total annual budget is just a few million dollars, making it insufficient for large-scale maritime security, climate resilience, and economic development projects. For example, The Indian Ocean Commission (IOC), despite having only five members, has a $1.3 billion budget (2020-25)—significantly larger than IORA’s budget.
    • Expanding Scope of Activities: IORA is expanding into maritime safety, disaster management, technology, and blue economy initiatives, all of which require resource-intensive investments. For example, Implementing maritime surveillance systems and disaster risk management programs demands consistent funding, which is currently lacking.
    • Lack of a Dedicated Fundraising Mechanism: Unlike organizations like the ASEAN Development Fund, IORA does not have a structured mechanism to raise funds through external donors, financial institutions, or international aid agencies. For example, ASEAN collaborates with ADB (Asian Development Bank) and the World Bank for project funding, while IORA lacks such institutional financial backing.

    How can it be addressed?

    • Diversifying Funding Sources: IORA should explore alternative funding mechanisms such as public-private partnerships (PPPs), external grants, and contributions from international financial institutions. Example: ASEAN collaborates with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the World Bank for project funding, which IORA can emulate.
    • Enhancing Private Sector Engagement: Establish formal partnerships with shipping, energy, fisheries, and tourism industries to attract investment in key maritime projects. Example: Creating an IORA Business Forum to facilitate corporate sponsorships and private sector-driven development projects.
    • Setting Up a Dedicated IORA Development Fund: Establish a structured IORA Development Fund where member states, international donors, and regional banks contribute for long-term sustainability. Example: The ASEAN Development Fund (ADF) pools resources for regional projects, which IORA can replicate to support blue economy and maritime security initiatives.
    • Strengthening Bilateral and Multilateral Cooperation: Strengthen financial partnerships with G20 economies, UN agencies, and regional economic blocs to access technical and financial assistance. Example: IORA can seek support from India’s Development Partnership Administration (DPA) or Japan’s Official Development Assistance (ODA) for infrastructure and capacity-building programs.
    • Implementing a Tiered Membership Contribution Model: Introduce a differentiated contribution system where larger economies contribute more while smaller nations have flexible or in-kind contributions. Example: Organizations like the International Maritime Organization (IMO) use GDP-based contribution tiers to ensure fair burden-sharing among members.

    India’s Role in IORA – Timeline of Key Initiatives

    How does the Indian Ocean Region contribute to global trade and economic activities?

    • Major Trade and Energy Corridor: The Indian Ocean facilitates 75% of global maritime trade and 50% of daily oil consumption, making it a critical route for global commerce. The Strait of Malacca, Bab-el-Mandeb, and the Strait of Hormuz are key chokepoints for oil and goods transportation.
    • Rich Blue Economy and Marine Resources: The region generates $1 trillion in goods and services, including fisheries, aquaculture, and seabed resources. India, Indonesia, and Thailand have thriving fishing industries, while Mozambique and Madagascar are rich in offshore gas reserves.
    • Strategic Economic Hubs and Ports: Major ports like Singapore, Mumbai, Colombo, and Dubai serve as global transhipment and logistics hubs, driving regional and global trade. Gwadar (Pakistan) and Hambantota (Sri Lanka) are being developed as part of strategic maritime infrastructure projects.

    Where can India leverage its strengths and partnerships to enhance IORA’s governance and effectiveness?

    • Maritime Security and Disaster Resilience: India can take the lead in strengthening maritime surveillance, anti-piracy measures, and disaster preparedness in the Indian Ocean region. Example: India’s Information Fusion Centre – Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR) can be expanded to assist IORA members in real-time maritime domain awareness.
    • Capacity Building and Skill Development: India can offer training programs, scholarships, and technical assistance to IORA members in areas like blue economy, digital governance, and climate adaptation. Example: The Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) program can be expanded to provide skill development for professionals from IORA nations.
    • Sustainable Blue Economy Initiatives: India can collaborate with IORA countries to promote marine biotechnology, sustainable fisheries, and ocean-based renewable energy. Example: India’s Deep Ocean Mission and expertise in offshore wind energy can be shared with IORA nations for sustainable development.
    • Trade and Connectivity Infrastructure: India can enhance regional trade and connectivity through port modernization, maritime logistics, and blue economy-driven trade facilitation. Example: The Sagarmala Project can be leveraged to assist IORA nations in upgrading port infrastructure and coastal shipping networks.
    • Multilateral Partnerships and Development Finance: India can work with Quad, G20, BRICS, and ASEAN to secure additional funding and policy coordination for IORA’s initiatives. Example: India’s leadership in the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) can be extended to help IORA nations build climate-resilient maritime infrastructure.

    Way forward: 

    • Institutional Strengthening & Financial Sustainability: IORA should establish a dedicated development fund, diversify revenue streams through public-private partnerships, and enhance cooperation with global financial institutions like the World Bank and ADB to ensure long-term financial stability.
    • Strategic & Inclusive Engagement:  India must promote technology-driven governance, capacity-building initiatives, and regional connectivity projects while fostering multilateral partnerships with ASEAN, Quad, and BRICS to enhance IORA’s strategic relevance and effectiveness.

  • India and the Arctic

    Why in the News?

    The Russian Ambassador to India recently stated that Russia views India’s interest in the Arctic as a “stabilizing factor.”

    India-Russia Collaboration in the Arctic

    India and Russia have strengthened their cooperation in the Arctic, focusing on scientific research, energy resources, and shipping routes:

    • Energy Resources: Joint ventures in Arctic oil and gas extraction, particularly in the Dolginskoye oil field and Vostok oil cluster.
    • Northern Sea Route (NSR): India and Russia are working to improve shipping through the NSR, aiming to reduce shipping costs and improve connectivity.

    About India’s Arctic Policy

    • India’s Arctic Policy was launched by the Ministry of Earth Sciences in 2022, taking a comprehensive approach that involves multiple sectors, including scientific, environmental, economic, and strategic interests.
    • It focuses on sustainability, aiming to protect the environment while exploring opportunities in energy resources, shipping routes, and scientific collaboration.
    • The policy includes 6 key pillars:
    1. Science and Research: Focus on climate change, geosciences, and polar biology.
    2. Climate and Environmental Protection: Ensuring development does not compromise the Arctic ecosystem.
    3. Economic and Human Development: Exploring opportunities in energy extraction and shipping.
    4. Transportation and Connectivity: Enhancing access to Arctic shipping routes.
    5. Governance and International Cooperation: Strengthening ties with international partners like the Arctic Council.
    6. National Capacity Building: Developing expertise in Arctic research and polar navigation.
    • The policy acknowledges the geopolitical dynamics of the Arctic and seeks to balance scientific, economic, and strategic interests.

    India’s Mission to the Arctic

    • India’s Arctic mission began in 2007, with its first research mission focused on microbiology, atmospheric sciences, and geology. India also established its research base, Himadri, in the Arctic in 2008. Recent advancements include:
      • In 2023, India conducted winter expedition in polar night conditions to study climate change, sea-ice dynamics, and ocean circulation.
      • India collaborates with Russia, Norway, and other Arctic nations through research institutes and joint expeditions.
    • India’s focus is on understanding the Arctic’s impact on climate change and its effects on weather patterns, particularly in South Asia.

    Back2Basics: Arctic Council

    • The Arctic Council, established in 1996, is an intergovernmental forum for cooperation among Arctic states.
    • The Council includes 8 Arctic countries and permanent participants from indigenous Arctic communities. Its focus is on environmental protection, sustainable development, and scientific research.
    • India has been an observer since 2013, contributing to scientific research, climate change discussions, and policy frameworks.
    • The Council’s activities were suspended in 2022 due to rising tensions from militarization by NATO countries.
      • Despite this, India continues to engage constructively with the Council.
    • India’s participation in the Arctic Council highlights the global importance of Arctic issues, particularly regarding climate change and energy security.

     

    PYQ:

    [UPSC 2015] The term ‘IndARC’, sometimes seen in the news, is the name of:

    (a) an indigenously developed radar system inducted into Indian Defence

    (b) India’s satellite to provide services to the countries of Indian Ocean Rim

    (c) a scientific establishment set up by India in Antarctic region

    (d) India’s underwater observatory to scientifically study the Arctic region

    [UPSC 2018] Why is India taking keen in resources of Arctic region?

    [UPSC 2015] What are the economic significances of discovery of oil in Arctic Sea and its possible environmental consequences?

     

  • The assault on multilateralism and international law

    Why in the News?

    The US’s independent actions could lead to global pushback, but they also create an opportunity for non-Western nations to step up as leaders.

    What are the key multilateral institutions and agreements from which the U.S. has signalled withdrawal under the Trump administration?

    • World Health Organization (WHO): The U.S. announced withdrawal in 2020, accusing WHO of mishandling the COVID-19 pandemic and being overly influenced by China.
    • United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC): The U.S. exited in 2018, citing alleged bias against Israel and ineffective handling of human rights abuses.  
    • Paris Climate Agreement: The U.S. formally withdrew in 2020, arguing that the agreement unfairly burdened its economy while benefiting competitors like China and India. Example: The withdrawal slowed global climate efforts, as the U.S. is one of the largest carbon emitters.
    • International Criminal Court (ICC): The U.S. imposed sanctions on ICC officials in 2020, rejecting its authority over American troops and allies. Example: Sanctions were placed on ICC officials investigating alleged U.S. war crimes in Afghanistan.
    • World Trade Organization (WTO): The U.S. blocked appointments to the WTO Appellate Body, crippling its ability to resolve trade disputes. Example: This led to a breakdown in the global trade dispute resolution system, impacting countries like India and China.

    What is the DEFUND Act?

    The Disengaging Entirely from the United Nations Debacle (DEFUND) Act is a proposed U.S. legislation introduced by Senator Mike Lee. It seeks to completely withdraw the U.S. from the United Nations (UN), repeal key participation laws, cut all funding, and revoke diplomatic immunity for UN officials within the U.S.

    Why does the proposed DEFUND Act pose a threat to the legitimacy of the United Nations?

    • Financial Crisis for the UN: The U.S. is the largest financial contributor to the UN, funding around 22% of its budget. The DEFUND Act would halt all U.S. contributions, severely affecting UN operations. Example: The UN’s peacekeeping missions and humanitarian aid programs in conflict zones like Syria and Yemen would face funding shortages.
    • Weakening of Multilateral Cooperation: The Act would repeal key legislation like the United Nations Participation Act of 1945, severing U.S. engagement with the UN. This could encourage other nations to follow suit, undermining the UN’s credibility. Example: Without U.S. involvement, the UN Security Council may struggle to enforce resolutions, reducing its effectiveness in global crisis management.
    • Legal and Diplomatic Challenges: The Act would revoke the diplomatic immunity of UN officials in the U.S., disrupting UN functions and diplomatic activities. Example: The UN Headquarters in New York might face operational difficulties, making it harder to conduct international negotiations.

    How has the U.S. administration’s stance on the International Criminal Court (ICC) impacted global accountability for human rights violations?

    • Undermining International Justice Mechanisms: The U.S. imposed sanctions on ICC officials in 2020, accusing the court of targeting American personnel and allies. This weakened the ICC’s ability to investigate war crimes and crimes against humanity, particularly in conflict zones like Afghanistan and Palestine.
    • Encouraging Non-Cooperation with the ICC: The U.S.’s non-recognition of the ICC has emboldened other nations to ignore its rulings, reducing its global influence. Countries under investigation may refuse cooperation, limiting the court’s effectiveness in ensuring accountability.
      • Example: Israel rejected ICC jurisdiction in its war crimes probe in Palestinian territories, citing U.S. opposition to the investigation.
    • Weakening the Principle of Universal Justice: By discrediting the ICC and blocking investigations, the U.S. has set a precedent for selective justice, where powerful nations can evade accountability while weaker states remain subject to scrutiny.
      • Example: The ICC struggles to prosecute major powers like China or Russia, as the U.S.’s stance encourages a lack of enforcement in high-stakes human rights cases.

    What are the chances for non-Western nations to assume global leadership roles?

    • Expanding Economic and Political Influence – Emerging economies like China, India, and Brazil are increasing their global footprint through trade, technology, and strategic alliances.
      Example: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) enhances its economic influence across Asia, Africa, and Europe.
    • Strengthening Regional and Multilateral Institutions – Non-Western nations are actively shaping global governance through regional organizations and alternative institutions.
      Example: The BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) launched the New Development Bank (NDB) as an alternative to Western-led financial institutions.
    • Leadership in Global Crisis Management – Developing nations are taking initiative in addressing global challenges like climate change, health crises, and digital transformation.
      Example: India’s Vaccine Maitri initiative supplied COVID-19 vaccines to over 100 countries, reinforcing its role in global health diplomacy.

    What would be the impact on India?

    • Challenges to Multilateralism and Global Governance: The U.S. exit from key institutions like the UN, WHO, and WTO weakens the global rules-based order, making international cooperation more fragmented. India, which strongly supports multilateral diplomacy, may face difficulties in global negotiations, including trade, climate change, and security.
      • Example: The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement (2017) reduced global climate finance commitments, impacting India’s renewable energy goals.
    • Opportunity for India to Assume Leadership: As the U.S. retreats, India can play a more prominent role in shaping multilateral decision-making, advocating for reforms in the UNSC and WTO, and positioning itself as a bridge between developing and developed nations.
      • Example: During the G-20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (2025), India emphasized the need for inclusive multilateralism, strengthening its diplomatic standing.

    Way forward: 

    • Strengthen Multilateral Leadership – India should actively engage in UN reforms, WTO negotiations, and climate diplomacy, positioning itself as a stabilizing force in global governance.
    • Diversify Strategic Alliances – India must deepen partnerships with EU, ASEAN, and African nations, enhancing trade, security, and diplomatic ties to counterbalance U.S. disengagement.

    Mains PYQ:

     Q “Critically examine the role of WHO in providing global health security during the Covid-19 pandemic. (UPSC 2020)

    Reason: The World Health Organization (WHO) has faced calls for withdrawal by certain nations, highlighting a challenge to multilateral institutions. This PYQ directly assesses the role and, by extension, the relevance and effectiveness of the WHO in a global crisis, which is pertinent to discussions on the assault on multilateralism.

  • Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI)

    Why in the News?

    New Zealand has expressed its willingness to join the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI).

    About Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI)

    • India launched the IPOI at the East Asia Summit in November 2019 to promote cooperation for a free, open, and rules-based Indo-Pacific.
    • The initiative aims to strengthen maritime security, stability, and development in the region by fostering multilateral engagement among Indo-Pacific nations.
    • It builds on India’s Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) vision, which emphasizes the importance of collaborative efforts in regional maritime governance.
    • The IPOI operates as a voluntary, non-treaty-based arrangement, relying on existing frameworks like the EAS mechanism, ensuring flexibility and adaptability in cooperation.
    • The IPOI is structured around 7 key pillars, with specific countries taking the lead in each area:
    1. Maritime Security: UK and India
    2. Maritime Ecology: Australia and Thailand
    3. Maritime Resources: France and Indonesia
    4. Capacity Building and Resource Sharing: Germany
    5. Disaster Risk Reduction and Management: India and Bangladesh
    6. Science, Technology, and Academic Cooperation: Italy and Singapore
    7. Trade, Connectivity, and Maritime Transport: Japan and the US

    Mandate of IPOI:

    • The IPOI seeks to establish a rules-based regional order in the Indo-Pacific, facilitating the free movement of goods, services, and people while respecting the sovereignty of nations.
    • The initiative enhances regional maritime security by fostering cooperation among countries to tackle shared challenges such as piracy, illegal fishing, smuggling, and other maritime crimes.
    • IPOI aims to boost regional capacity for disaster risk reduction and management, encouraging collaboration on disaster preparedness and response, thus minimizing the effects of natural disasters.
    • As a non-treaty, voluntary initiative, IPOI offers flexibility, allowing nations to participate according to common interests without adding new institutional responsibilities.
    PYQ:
    [UPSC 2011]     The strategic significance of South-East Asia lies in its:
    (a) It was the hot theatre during the Second World War.
    (b) Its location between the Asian powers of China and India.,
    (c) It was the arena of superpower confrontation during the Cold War period.,
    (d) Its location between the Pacific and Indian Oceans and its preeminent maritime character.

     

  • [19th March 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: What is happening in Balochistan?

    PYQ Relevance:

    Q How far are India’s internal security challenges linked with border management particularly in view of the long porous borders with most countries of South Asia and Myanmar?” (2013)

    Reason: The movement of non-state actors, the potential for cross-border terrorism, and the involvement of external actors in Balochistan could link to India’s internal security challenges and the complexities of managing its own borders.

     

    Mentor’s Comment:  Balochistan’s ongoing insurgency isn’t just a Pakistan issue—it’s a case study in how internal unrest, resource conflicts, and external interventions shape regional security. For UPSC aspirants, this article is crucial for understanding India’s border security challenges (GS3) and the broader geopolitical game involving China and Pakistan (GS2). The mention of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), the hijacking incident, and Pakistan’s military response highlights patterns of insurgency and counterinsurgency—offering insights into how states manage separatist movements, a key aspect of internal security answers. Additionally, CPEC’s impact on local communities echoes concerns about economic imperialism and sovereignty, making this a relevant talking point in India’s foreign policy discourse.

    Today’s editorial discusses the challenges in Pakistan’s Balochistan province and how India can strategically respond. This analysis is relevant for GS Paper 2 (International Relations) and GS Paper 3 (Internal Security).

    _

    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    Pakistan’s internal politics will shape the unrest in Balochistan. However, due to low trust in the military and government, meaningful talks between insurgents and the leadership seem unlikely.

    What are the key reasons behind the ongoing insurgency in Balochistan?

    • Historical Grievances and Forced Integration (1948): Many Baloch nationalists argue that Balochistan was forcefully incorporated into Pakistan in 1948 without the consent of its people. Example: Multiple insurgencies have occurred over the decades (1950s, 1960s, 1970s, mid-2000s) due to political and economic marginalization.
    • Political and Socio-Economic Marginalization: The region remains underdeveloped despite its vast natural resources (coal, copper, gold, gas). The Baloch people feel excluded from governance and decision-making. Example: Even with rich gas reserves, local communities face power shortages while other provinces benefit from Balochistan’s resources.
    • Military Suppression and Human Rights Violations: Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies have employed heavy-handed tactics such as enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and crackdowns on dissent. Example: The mass protests led by Baloch women against custodial killings and forced disappearances highlight the ongoing repression.
    • China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and Resource Exploitation: Large-scale infrastructure projects, like Gwadar Port, were developed without consulting local communities, causing displacement and demographic changes. Example: Chinese fishing trawlers have disrupted local fishermen’s livelihoods, leading to economic hardships and resentment.
    • Growing Insurgent Coordination and External Factors: Various Baloch insurgent groups (BLA, BLF, BRG) have improved their coordination, launching high-profile attacks on security forces and infrastructure. Example: The Baloch Raji Aajoi Sangar (BRAS) alliance has intensified attacks, including the March 2024 train hijacking and past assaults on Chinese workers and security installations.

    What is China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)? 

    The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a $62 billion infrastructure project linking China’s Xinjiang to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, enhancing trade, energy, and connectivity but facing security, debt, and geopolitical concerns.

    cpec, balochistan

    How has the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) impacted the socio-political landscape of Balochistan?

    • Economic Disparities and Local Alienation: Despite promises of economic growth, local Baloch communities have seen minimal benefits from CPEC projects, leading to resentment. Example: Gwadar Port’s development has largely benefited Chinese and Pakistani investors, while local fishermen face economic hardships due to Chinese deep-sea fishing trawlers.
    • Increased Security Presence and Military Crackdown: To safeguard CPEC projects, Pakistan has intensified military operations in Balochistan, leading to human rights abuses and forced displacements. Example: The establishment of the Special Security Division (SSD) for CPEC has led to increased military checkpoints and reports of enforced disappearances.
    • Rise in Insurgency and Targeted Attacks: Baloch insurgent groups view CPEC as a form of exploitation, leading to increased attacks on Chinese nationals and Pakistani security forces. Example: The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) has carried out multiple attacks, including the 2022 suicide bombing in Karachi targeting Chinese teachers associated with CPEC projects.
    • Demographic Changes and Marginalization of Locals: Large-scale infrastructure projects have led to an influx of outsiders, creating fears among Baloch communities about losing their cultural and economic dominance. Example: The settlement of non-Baloch workers in Gwadar has fueled protests, with locals demanding control over job opportunities and land rights.
    • Environmental Degradation and Livelihood Losses: Industrialization and large-scale construction under CPEC have led to pollution, water shortages, and destruction of marine ecosystems, affecting local livelihoods. Example: Gwadar’s water crisis has worsened due to excessive resource extraction for CPEC-related industries, forcing residents to rely on water tankers.

    How can India leverage this situation to its advantage?

    • Diplomatic Advocacy for Human Rights: India can raise concerns over human rights violations in Balochistan at international forums like the UN and human rights organizations, building pressure on Pakistan. Example: Indian Prime Minister’s 2016 Independence Day speech highlighted Balochistan’s struggles, signaling diplomatic support.
    • Strategic Engagement with Baloch Leadership: Engaging with Baloch exiled leaders and activists can strengthen India’s regional influence and counter Pakistan’s narrative on Kashmir. Example: India has provided a platform to Baloch leaders like Brahumdagh Bugti, who has sought asylum in India.
    • Intelligence and Strategic Operations: India can enhance intelligence-sharing and non-conventional tactics to counter threats emanating from Pakistan, especially along its western borders. Example: Reports suggest Indian agencies have been monitoring CPEC activities and Pakistan’s military actions in Balochistan.
    • Economic and Cultural Soft Power: India can support Baloch diaspora communities through scholarships, cultural exchanges, and humanitarian assistance to build goodwill. Example: Media outlets in India have amplified Baloch issues, increasing global awareness of Pakistan’s suppression.
    • Countering CPEC’s Strategic Influence: By highlighting the environmental and economic concerns of Balochistan, India can strengthen its ties with countries skeptical of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Example: India’s opposition to CPEC, citing sovereignty concerns over PoK, aligns with global criticisms of China’s debt-trap diplomacy, helping form strategic alliances.

    Way forward: 

    • International Advocacy and Strategic Alliances: India should continue raising the Balochistan issue in global forums while strengthening diplomatic ties with nations wary of CPEC and China’s growing influence. Example: Collaborating with the Quad (US, Japan, Australia) and EU on human rights and regional security concerns.
    • Balanced Engagement with Baloch Leadership: India can discreetly support Baloch nationalist movements through political dialogue, humanitarian aid, and economic initiatives, ensuring a calibrated approach without direct intervention. Example: Facilitating educational opportunities and cultural exchanges for Baloch youth to build long-term goodwill.

    Back to Basics: Importance of Balochistan

    • Strategic Location – Balochistan provides Pakistan access to the Arabian Sea, hosting Gwadar Port, a key part of CPEC, enhancing regional trade and connectivity.
    • Natural Resources – It holds rich mineral reserves, including natural gas, coal, gold, and copper (e.g., Reko Diq gold-copper project).
    • Energy Hub – Balochistan is crucial for Pakistan’s energy security, with major gas fields like Sui Gas Field, supplying the country since 1952.
    • Defense and Security – The province borders Iran and Afghanistan, making it vital for border security and counterinsurgency operations.
    • Fisheries and Maritime Importance – Its 1,000 km coastline supports Pakistan’s fishing industry, with Gwadar’s deep-sea port boosting maritime trade potential.

     

  • 30th Session of International Seabed Authority (ISA)

    Why in the News?

    The 30th Session of the International Seabed Authority (ISA) has officially commenced in Kingston, Jamaica, on March 17, 2025.

    About the International Seabed Authority (ISA)

    • ISA is an autonomous international organization created under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the 1994 Agreement relating to Part XI of the UNCLOS.
    • It regulates and manages mineral-resource activities in the “Area”—the seabed and ocean floor beyond national jurisdictions.
    • It is headquartered in Kingston, Jamaica
    • It has 168 Member States, including India, and the European Union
    • Mandate:
      • Regulate exploration and exploitation of deep-sea minerals.
      • Protect the marine environment from harmful effects of seabed activities.
      • Encourage marine scientific research and promote the sustainable use of oceans.
    • The ISA manages about 54% of the world’s oceans, ensuring activities are carried out for the benefit of all humankind and to protect the marine environment.

    Role in Regulating Deep-Sea Mining

    The ISA is responsible for enforcing the Mining Code, which governs all mineral activities in the International Seabed Area. It includes:

    • Regulation of Exploration: Grants exploration licenses for assessing mineral deposits in deep-sea areas, ensuring scientifically responsible activities.
    • Environmental Protection: Sets environmental standards and ensures impact assessments before mining starts.
    • Development of Mining Code: Continuously updates the Mining Code to address scientific, technological, and environmental concerns.
    • Oversight and Compliance: Monitors activities of contractors and member states, ensuring regulatory compliance and environmental safeguards.

    India and ISA

    • In January 2024, India submitted two exploration applications in the Indian Ocean for:
      • Polymetallic sulphides in the Carlsberg Ridge.
      • Cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts in the Afanasy-Nikitin Seamount.
    • India holds two active exploration contracts for polymetallic nodules and sulphides in the Central Indian Ocean Basin and Ridge.
    • India seeks access to critical minerals for energy transition and technological growth, balancing economic needs with sustainable practices.
    • India actively participates in Mining Code negotiations, aligning its actions with international legal standards and environmental protocols.

    PYQ:

    [UPSC 2021] Consider the following statements:
    1. The Global Ocean Commission grants licences for seabed exploration and mining in international waters.
    2. India has received licences for seabed mineral exploration in international waters
    3. ‘Rare earth minerals’ are present on the seafloor in international waters.
    Which of the statements given above are correct?
    (a) 1 and 2 only
    (b) 2 and 3 only
    (c) 1 and 3 only
    (d) 1, 2 and 3

     

  • New Delhi’s perilous recalibration with the Taliban

    Why in the News?

    The Prime Minister of India may allow the Taliban regime to appoint a new envoy for its embassy in New Delhi.

    What are the key reasons behind India’s increasing engagement with the Taliban despite international concerns?

    • Strategic Influence in Afghanistan: India aims to maintain a presence in Afghanistan to safeguard its long-term geopolitical interests.Example: India reopened its embassy in Kabul in June 2022, ensuring diplomatic engagement.
    • Countering Pakistan’s Diminishing Influence: As Taliban-Pakistan relations sour, India sees an opportunity to reduce Islamabad’s sway over Kabul. Example: The Taliban’s refusal to act against Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has strained ties with Pakistan, creating space for India.
    • Competing with China’s Expanding Role: China has accepted a Taliban envoy and is integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Example: China became the first country to accept a Taliban-appointed ambassador in 2023, prompting India to reconsider its approach.
    • Ensuring Regional Security and Counterterrorism: A stable Afghanistan is crucial to preventing it from becoming a hub for anti-India terror groups. Example: India seeks Taliban cooperation in curbing ISIS-K and groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) that threaten Indian interests.
    • Economic and Humanitarian Interests: Engaging with the Taliban allows India to continue developmental projects and provide humanitarian aid. Example: India has sent multiple consignments of wheat and medical supplies to Afghanistan under humanitarian assistance programs.

    Why is the recognition of a Taliban envoy in India considered a significant shift in diplomatic policy?

    • De Facto Recognition of the Taliban Regime: Accepting a Taliban-appointed envoy would signal India’s indirect recognition of the regime, despite its lack of international legitimacy. Example: Most countries, including the U.S. and EU members, have refused to recognize the Taliban due to human rights violations.
    • Departure from India’s Traditional Stand on Terrorism: India has consistently opposed regimes that support terrorism. Engaging with the Taliban contradicts its long-standing stance. Example: India had previously refused to engage with the Taliban, citing its ties to groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM).
    • Contradiction with India’s Human Rights Advocacy: The Taliban’s treatment of women and minorities has been widely condemned, and recognizing its envoy could weaken India’s credibility as a human rights advocate. Example: The UN has termed the Taliban’s policies as “gender apartheid,” which contradicts India’s global image as a democratic and inclusive nation.
    • Impact on Relations with Western Allies: Closer engagement with the Taliban may strain India’s relations with countries that have imposed sanctions on the Taliban. Example: The U.S. and European nations continue to restrict diplomatic ties and financial transactions with Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.
    • Risk of Setting a Precedent for Other Unrecognized Regimes: Accepting a Taliban envoy might encourage other unrecognized regimes to seek similar diplomatic treatment, complicating India’s foreign policy. Example: It could open debates on whether India should engage similarly with other disputed governments, such as Myanmar’s military junta.

    What are the major risks for India in engaging with the Taliban?

    • Security Threats and Terrorism: The Taliban’s ties with terror groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) pose a direct threat to India’s national security. Example: The 2001 Indian Parliament attack was linked to JeM, which has operated from Taliban-controlled areas in the past.
    • Growing Influence of the Islamic State (IS): The Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-K) has been expanding in Afghanistan, carrying out attacks even against the Taliban and its allies. Example: IS-K’s attack on the Moscow Crocus City Hall in 2024 and the bombing of a Kabul hotel housing Chinese nationals show Afghanistan’s instability.
    • Potential Diplomatic Backlash: Engaging with the Taliban could harm India’s relations with key allies like the U.S. and the EU, which refuse to recognize the Taliban due to human rights violations. Example: The U.S. and European nations maintain economic sanctions on Afghanistan, and aligning too closely with the Taliban could attract criticism.
    • Destabilization of India’s Western Borders: The Taliban’s alleged support for Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has worsened Pakistan’s security situation, and any spillover could affect India. Example: TTP claimed 147 attacks in Pakistan in February 2024 alone, and instability in the region could have consequences for India’s border security.
    • Economic and Infrastructure Investment Risks: Any investments India makes in Afghanistan may not be secure due to the Taliban’s unstable governance and lack of financial transparency. Example: India’s $3 billion investments in Afghan infrastructure, including the Salma Dam and the Afghan Parliament, remain uncertain under Taliban rule.

    Way forward: 

    • Strategic, Conditional Engagement: India should engage with the Taliban on a case-by-case basis, ensuring its security interests are safeguarded while avoiding full diplomatic recognition. Example: Continuing humanitarian aid and infrastructure projects without legitimizing Taliban rule.
    • Regional and Multilateral Cooperation: India should collaborate with regional partners like Iran, Russia, and Central Asian states to ensure stability in Afghanistan while maintaining ties with Western allies. Example: Strengthening mechanisms like the Moscow Format Talks and UN-led initiatives to balance engagement and counter-terrorism efforts.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q Critically analyse India’s evolving diplomatic, economic and strategic relations with the Central Asian Republics (CARs) highlighting their increasing significance in regional and global geopolitics.(UPSC IAS/2024)

    Reason: India’s engagement with CARs is influenced by the situation in Afghanistan and the wider regional security scenario involving the Taliban.