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Subject: International Relations

  • Power asymmetry between China and Russia

    Why in the News?

    Due to sanctions put by the USA, affected Russia’s usual supply and pressured its domestic production eventually led to  China’s share of Russia’s imports surged from 32% in 2021 to 89% in 2023.

    What is the issue over the dual hegemony of the dollar and the SWIFT messaging system? 

    • Effect of Ukraine War: Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the U.S. and its allies froze $300 billion of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves and imposed a SWIFT ban on Russian banks involved in dual-use goods. This showed the weaponization of the U.S.-led financial system.
    • China’s Fears: China, with about $770 billion of its reserves held in U.S. treasuries, fears similar financial penalties if tensions with the West escalate.
    • Dual Hegemony: Both Russia and China share concerns over the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global transactions and the influence of the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) system, which is integral to cross-border payments.
      • Both countries have tried to de-dollarize their economies and promote alternative payment systems like China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS).
      • However, CIPS is still far from challenging the dominance of SWIFT, and their efforts to create alternative financial frameworks have not seen significant global success.

    About SWIFT system:

    • Founded in Belgium (1973), SWIFT is overseen by the G-10 central banks.
    • The SWIFT system is a global financial messaging system used by banks and financial institutions to send and receive information about financial transactions securely.
    • Russia and China have both developed alternative systems to SWIFT.

    What is the issue over the dual hegemony of the dollar and the SWIFT messaging system? 

    • Trade Dependence: Russia has a minor trade surplus with China, but the trade relationship is imbalanced: China represents 30.4% of Russia’s exports and 36% of its imports, while Russia is only 3% of China’s exports.
    • Energy Dominance: Over 70% of Russia’s exports to China are fossil fuels, making it vulnerable to changes in China’s energy needs.
    • High-priority goods: In 2023, 89% of Russia’s high-priority goods were imported from China, compared to 32% in 2021.

    What does it mean for India?

    • Strategic Implications: The deepening partnership between China and Russia has raised concerns in India. Russia, traditionally a close partner to India, now shares a strong relationship with China, India’s primary geopolitical adversary.
    • Trade Disparity: India’s trade with Russia remains relatively small compared to the rapidly growing China-Russia trade. This economic disparity limits Moscow’s autonomy in maintaining a balanced relationship between India and China.
    • Russia’s Diminishing Autonomy: Given the economic asymmetry and Russia’s increasing reliance on China, especially for critical goods and financial support, it has less leverage to act independently in its relations with India.  

    Way forward: 

    • Diversify Strategic Partnerships: India should strengthen its ties with other global powers, including the U.S., the EU, and emerging economies, to reduce over-reliance on Russia for defense and energy.
    • Expand Domestic Capabilities: India must invest in boosting its indigenous defence and energy sectors to minimize dependence on foreign partners. Strengthening self-reliance will help India maintain strategic autonomy amid shifting global alliances.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q The USA is facing an existential threat in the form of China, that is much more challenging than the erstwhile Soviet Union.” Explain. (UPSC IAS/2021)

  • Indian military export to Israel — aiding genocide

    Why in the News?

    A Supreme Court Bench, led by the Chief Justice of India, recently dismissed a petition by former civil servants and activists seeking suspension of military export licenses to Israel during the ongoing conflict.

    India’s Ongoing Exports to Israel

    • India exports military equipment and arms to Israel, which includes both public sector and private sector companies supplying defense-related materials.
    • During the ongoing conflict in Gaza, the Indian government has continued to issue licenses for the export of arms and military equipment to Israel, despite international concerns about potential violations of humanitarian law.
    • India has developed a strong defense relationship with Israel, marked by regular arms deals, military cooperation, and technology transfers.

    How does India’s arms exports to Israel violate the law?

    • Complicity in Genocide: By exporting arms to Israel, India risks being complicit in violations of international humanitarian law, including potential war crimes and genocide committed by Israel, as indicated by various international bodies.
      • As a signatory to the Genocide Convention, India is obligated (Article 1) to prevent genocide and avoid providing aid or assistance to any state engaged in such acts.
    • Indian Constitution: Article 21 of the Indian Constitution guarantees the right to life and personal liberty to citizens as well as to foreigners.
    • International Court of Justice (ICJ) Precedents: ICJ rulings have repeatedly warned states against exporting arms to conflict zones where such weapons might be used to violate international law.

    Genocide Convention (1948)

    • Definition and Purpose: The Genocide Convention, adopted by the United Nations in 1948, aims to prevent and punish acts of genocide, which include killings and other acts intended to destroy, in whole or part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group.
    • Obligations of Signatory States:
      • States party to the Convention are obligated to prevent and punish acts of genocide, both within their territories and in international contexts.
      • Article III of the Convention makes states’ complicity in genocide a punishable offense, meaning states must refrain from providing material or logistical support to nations engaged in genocide.
    • India’s Commitment: India ratified the Genocide Convention, thereby binding itself to these obligations. Under this Convention, India is required to ensure that it is not complicit in such crimes through its actions, including military exports.

    International Pressure and ICJ Opinions

    • ICJ Provisional Measures (2023): In January 2023, the ICJ ordered provisional measures against Israel for violations of the Genocide Convention in the Gaza Strip, including an immediate halt to killings and destruction.
    • Global Response: Many countries like Canada, Spain, and the UK have suspended arms exports to Israel, in compliance with their obligations under international law to prevent genocide and war crimes.
    • India’s Non-Compliance: Despite these international legal obligations and warnings, India continues to provide military aid to Israel, raising questions about its commitment to international humanitarian law.

    Conclusion: India’s continued arms exports to Israel, despite international legal concerns, highlight the delicate balance between strategic defence relations and adherence to international humanitarian obligations under the Genocide and Geneva Conventions.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss. (UPSC IAS/2018)

  • Turkey bids to join BRICS

     

    Why in the News?

    • Turkey has officially applied to join the BRICS group after Russia supported its entry. Russia is set to hold the BRICS Summit in Kazan from October 22 to 24, 2024.
      • Malaysia and Thailand had also expressed their interest in joining the expanded BRICS group of emerging economies.

    Turkey’s Geopolitical Position:

    • Joining BRICS could signify Turkey’s foreign policy shift, possibly distancing the country further from its long-standing ambition to join the European Union (EU).
    • Turkey has faced Western criticism for its purchase of Russian S-400 defence systems, its ties with Russia, and its stance on sanctions.
      • Ankara is positioning itself as a middle power that can balance relationships between the West and the Global South.

    What is BRICS?

    Details
    Members BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa)
    Origin Coined by economist Jim O’Neill in 2001 as BRIC, formalised as BRICS in 2010
    Formation First meeting of BRIC Foreign Ministers in 2006. South Africa was invited to join BRIC in December 2010
    Global share of BRICS
    • Population: 41%
    • GDP: 24%
    • Global trade: 16%
    Chairmanship Rotated annually among members, following sequence B-R-I-C-S
    India’s Hosting Hosted the 2021 BRICS Summit
    Key Initiatives
    • New Development Bank (NDB) established in 2014: Approved 70 infrastructure and sustainable development projects
    • Contingent Reserve Arrangement signed in 2014: Aims to forestall short-term balance of payments pressures and strengthen financial stability
    • Customs agreements signed for trade facilitation
    • BRICS Remote Sensing Satellite Constellation initiated in 2021: Involves six existing satellites developed by members
    Expansion
    • Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates joined as new full members on January 1, 2024.
    • Argentina refused to join the BRICS group in 2024
    • Malaysia, Thailand and Turkey have bid for its membership.

     

    PYQ:

    [2014] With reference to a grouping of countries known as BRICS, consider the following statements:

    1. The First Summit of BRICS was held in Rio de Janeiro in 2009.

    2. South Africa was the last to join the BRICS grouping.

    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

    (a) 1 only

    (b) 2 only

    (c) Both 1 and 2

    (d) Neither 1 nor 2
  • [12th September 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: Perils of decentralization with Chinese characteristics

    [12th September 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: Perils of decentralization with Chinese characteristics

    PYQ Relevance:

    Q “The USA is facing an existential threat in the form of China, that is much more challenging than the erstwhile Soviet Union.” Explain. (UPSC IAS/2021)

    Q  ‘China is using its economic relations and positive trade surplus as tools to develop potential military power status in Asia’, In the light of this statement, discuss its impact on India as her neighbor. (UPSC IAS/2017)

    Q. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is viewed as a cardinal subset of China’s larger ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative. Give a brief description of CPEC and enumerate the reasons why India has distanced itself from the same. (UPSC IAS/2018)

    Mentor comment: In the Indian context, there is a need for improved infrastructure to support economic growth and facilitate investment, which requires coordinated efforts at both state and national levels. While prioritizing industrial growth, it is essential to balance this with the provision of public services to ensure comprehensive development. We can learn from the experience of our neighbour – China.

    China’s decentralized policy has become a threat to itself. China’s decentralized policy initially spurred economic growth. Still, it has now become a source of structural inefficiencies, regional disparities, ineffective investments, and governance challenges that threaten the country’s long-term stability and development.

    _

    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    PM urged the states to compete with each other to attract investors. The difference was highlighted with India’s more centralised system where city-level governments account for less than 3% of total spending.

    • China’s extreme fiscal decentralization (in 1994), with sub-provincial governments accounting for 51% of government spending and having broad qualitative mandates, has turned counter-productive.

    What are the challenges faced by the Chinese local government?

    • Overcapacity as a Structural Issue: Initially, during the Hu Jintao era, the local governments prioritized industrial construction over public services to boost economic growth and political prospects.
      • This model led to competitive sub-national growth, resulting in structural overcapacity and wasteful investments.
    • Tipping Point Under Xi Jinping: As the investments made between 2009 and 2013 were ineffective, Xi Jinping focused on strengthening central control and narrowing directives, focusing on specific product lines like semiconductors, which often ignored market demands.
      • By mid-2024, 30% of industrial firms reported losses, highlighting the negative impact of overcapacity and ineffective local government spending.
    • Geopolitical Ramifications: Other countries view China’s overcapacity as a national security threat, particularly regarding tech-enabled products, exacerbated by China’s international conduct.
      • The geopolitical climate has shifted, affecting China’s ability to export excess capacity and creating challenges for local firms reliant on government funding.

    What were the effects of this on the Asian region?

    1. Positive Impacts:
    • In the Southeast Asian Region: These economies have become highly integrated into China’s supply chains, relying on Chinese intermediate inputs to produce goods for export. This has boosted trade and economic growth in the region.
    • On ASEAN Region: China’s upgraded trade agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), have strengthened economic ties and trade flows between China and its Asian neighbors.
    1. Negative Impacts:
    • Over-dependence on China: Southeast Asian manufacturers heavily rely on Chinese components, making them vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.
    • Increasing Trade Deficits: Growing trade deficits with China concern many Southeast Asian countries as they import more from China than they export.
    • Increasing Sanctions: Countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia impose anti-dumping measures and tariffs on certain Chinese products to protect domestic industries.
    Lessons for Indian States from China’s Experience

    • Decentralization of Authority: Meaningful decentralization of budgets and authority to local governments, particularly cities, can enhance political accountability and improve service delivery, akin to China’s local governance model.
    • Investment in State Capacity: Indian states must invest in building effective governance structures and administrative capacity, ensuring local governments can effectively manage resources and deliver services.
    • Policy Innovation: Encouraging local innovation and flexibility in policy implementation can lead to tailored solutions for regional challenges, mirroring China’s approach during its economic reforms.
    • Balancing Central and Local Authority: Finding the right balance between central oversight and local autonomy can help avoid the pitfalls of over-centralization while ensuring accountability and effective governance.

    Conclusion:

    The overcapacity and export orientation model has now reached its limits due to China’s arrogant approach to international relations and drive towards self-reliance. Though we might see a jump in exports for some sectors, China faces an economic decline if it does not transform its political and economic relations with the world’s major countries.

    https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/perils-of-decentralisation-with-chinese-characteristics/article68631225.ece

  • With an eye on Indo-Pacific, Germany seeks greater defence ties with India

    Why in the News?

    External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, currently in Germany as part of a three-nation tour, met with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in Berlin. They discussed various defence topics, including Ukraine, Gaza, and the Indo-Pacific region.

    Defence Partnership between India and Germany:

    • Late Engagement: Germany has been late in engaging India’s defence interests compared to France and the U.S., who have stronger partnerships with India.
    • Opportunity Post-Russia-Ukraine War: With Russia’s industrial capacity focused on the war, Germany sees an opportunity to enhance its defence exports to India. 
      • German defence manufacturers like ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems are already involved in projects like submarine construction for the Indian Navy.
    • Technology Transfer: Technology transfer is a key condition for India’s defence partnerships, and Germany’s ability to meet this requirement could shape future cooperation.
    • Complementary Systems: Germany’s Eurofighter and its future replacement by U.S.-made F-35s highlight Germany’s readiness to integrate its defence systems with Western platforms, easing potential interoperability issues for India.

    Exercise Tarang Shakti:

    • Tarang Shakti is one of the most extensive multilateral air exercises hosted by the Indian Air Force (IAF), showcasing India’s commitment to international defence cooperation.
    • This exercise marked the first time the German Luftwaffe (Air Force) participated in air sorties over Indian skies, symbolizing Germany’s growing defence ties with India.
    • It would become a biennial exercise, highlighting India’s intent to make such multinational military cooperation a regular feature.
    • Tarang Shakti was seen as a tryout for the larger Pacific Skies 24 air exercise involving France, Germany, and Spain, further emphasizing the Indo-Pacific’s growing military relevance.

    Present Dilemma of China:

    • Germany’s Strategic Interest in the Indo-Pacific: China’s aggressive actions, such as building artificial islands in the South China Sea, pose a significant threat to regional stability, international shipping, and trade routes, which Germany heavily depends on.
    • Germany’s Balancing Act: While Germany has clear political positions against China’s actions in the Indo-Pacific, its economic dependence on China complicates the situation. Germany’s increasing defence presence in the region is partly aimed at ensuring free and secure shipping routes.
    • Europe’s Shift in Focus: Post Russia-Ukraine war, Europe, including Germany, is recalibrating its foreign policy towards the Indo-Pacific, recognizing the region as the future centre of global economic and geopolitical influence, which is driving greater German defence engagement in the region.

    Way Forward: 

    • Enhance Defence Collaboration: India and Germany should focus on deepening defense cooperation, particularly in areas like technology transfer, joint military exercises, and advanced systems integration to build long-term strategic partnerships.
    • Strengthen Indo-Pacific Engagement: Germany and India should align their Indo-Pacific strategies to ensure regional stability, emphasizing free trade routes and countering China’s assertiveness while balancing economic dependencies.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q To what extent can Germany be held responsible for causing the two World Wars? Discuss critically. (UPSC IAS/2015)

  • [11th September 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: A panoramic view of the 2024 China-Africa summit

    [11th September 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: A panoramic view of the 2024 China-Africa summit

    PYQ Relevance:

    Q Increasing interest of India in Africa has its pro and cons. Critically Examine. (UPSC IAS/2015)

    Q “If the last few decades were of Asia’s growth story, the next few are expected to be of Africa’s.” In the light of this statement, examine India’s influence in Africa in recent years. (UPSC IAS/2021)

    Prelims:
    Consider the following statements:  (UPSC IAS/2016)
    The India-Africa Summit held in 2015:
    1.  was the third such Summit
    2. was actually initiated by Jawaharlal Nehru in 1951
    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
    (a) 1 only
    (b) 2 only
    (c) Both 1 and 2
    (d) Neither 1 nor 2

    Mentor comment: Africa is a vital source of raw materials and energy that China needs to sustain its industrial growth. The continent’s potential for economic development aligns with China’s goals for resource acquisition and market expansion. Many African countries are part of China’s BRI, which aims to enhance infrastructure and connectivity, facilitating trade and investment opportunities that benefit both sides.

    During the past 24 years, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) has emerged as an all-encompassing and effective platform for dialogue, interaction and planning between the two sides. African countries, despite their reservations and grievances, have found it useful to enhance their proximity to China.

    _

    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    Due to the ongoing regulatory challenges, the Health Ministry has established a National Task Force to address healthcare challenges. 

    • The stagnation in reforms and public policy efforts could hinder the government’s ability to manage current and future public health challenges effectively.

    What are the main outcomes of the 9th Ministerial Conference of FOCAC?

    • Strengthening China-Africa Partnership: Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to the China-Africa community with a shared future and elevating their comprehensive strategic and cooperative partnership to new heights.
    • Adopted the Beijing Action Plan (2025-2027): The Beijing Declaration on Jointly Building an All-Weather China-Africa Community with a Shared Future for the New Era was adopted, outlining the vision and blueprint for future China-Africa relations.
    • Enhancing Cooperation Mechanisms: It further provided the improving mechanisms like Bi-national Commissions, intergovernmental commissions, strategic dialogues, and foreign ministers’ political consultations to substantiate and institutionalize FOCAC.
    • It was decided to hold the 10th FOCAC Ministerial Conference in the Republic of the Congo in 2027.
    • Expanding Cooperation Areas: Both of them expanded their plans in Africa’s industrialization, agricultural modernization, and talent development for common development and prosperity.

    How will the 9th Ministerial Conference impact China-Africa trade relations?

    • Increased Trade Commitments: China has committed to importing $300 billion worth of goods from Africa, along with financial support to improve the quality of African exports and facilitate small- and medium-sized enterprises’ access to Chinese markets.
    • Focus on Industrialization and Resource Access: The conference will likely lead to better access to Africa’s lithium and cobalt, while providing African nations with investment opportunities and technological support.
    • Strengthening Bilateral Agreements: African nations are expected to negotiate more favorable terms, which could enhance local job creation and economic benefits for African countries.

    What are the key takeaways for India from FOCAC Summit?

    • Consistent Engagement: India must prioritize high-level political engagement with Africa, resuming its conference diplomacy after a nearly decade-long pause since the last India-Africa Forum Summit in 2015.
    • Financial Commitment: Historical ties and rhetoric need to be supported by substantial financial resources to enhance India-Africa cooperation effectively.
    • Reassessing Diplomatic Priorities: Africa’s significance in India’s foreign policy should be elevated, necessitating a proactive approach from Indian policymakers to align with this priority.
    • Need for Political Will: Stronger political will is essential to implement the practical policy choices proposed by Indian Africans for deeper engagement with the continent.

    Conclusion: The Ninth FOCAC Ministerial Conference consolidated China’s strategic partnership with Africa, while highlighting the need for India to reengage the continent with consistent high-level engagement, financial commitment, and stronger political will.

    https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-panoramic-view-of-the-2024-china-africa-summit/article68626792.ece

  • UAE-India ties are rooted in affnity, trust, and respect

    Why in the News?

    During Sheikh Khaled’s recent visit, new cooperation agreements were signed, including those related to civil nuclear technology and renewable energy, showcasing the commitment to collaborative advancements in critical sectors.

    Evolving Bilateral Relations:

    • In 1972:  India and the UAE bilateral relationship has been formalized since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1972, gaining momentum with high-level visits and agreements over the years.
    • In 2015: The greater push was achieved when the visit of India’s PM to the UAE in August 2015 marked the beginning of a new Strategic partnership.
    • In 2017: The relationship was elevated to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2017, during the visit of the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi to India in January 2017 as the chief guest at India’s Republic Day.
      • The UAE is India’s third-largest trading partner and a significant source of investment.
    • Today, the UAE hosts over 3.5 million Indian expatriates, which strengthens cultural ties and economic collaboration.

    Present Scenario of Strategic Development

    • Trade and Investment Growth: Bilateral trade reached approximately USD 85 billion in 2022-23, with goals to increase it to USD 100 billion by 2030.
      • The UAE has become a significant investor in India, with FDI from the UAE surging to USD 3.35 billion in FY23.
    • Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA): India and the UAE signed a CEPA in February 2022, with India being the first country to secure such a deal with the UAE. This agreement led to a 15% rise in bilateral trade within its first year of operation.
    • Regional Ties: India and the UAE are actively engaged in various regional groupings and initiatives such as the I2U2 and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), reflecting shared interests and strategic alignment.
    • Energy Ties: The UAE plays a crucial role in India’s energy security, with strategic oil reserves stored in India.
    • Fintech Ties: Since August 2019, the RuPay card, India’s domestic card payment network, has been accepted at 21 businesses and 5,000 ATMs across the UAE. This makes the UAE the first Gulf nation to adopt the Indian payment system.
    • Cultural Ties: India participated as the Guest of Honour Country in Abu Dhabi International Book Fair 2019. Indian cinema/TV/radio channels are easily available and have good viewership.
      • The inauguration of the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi’s Abu Dhabi campus marks a significant milestone, representing India’s growing educational influence in the UAE.

    Challenges in India-UAE Relations

    • Labor Rights and Kafala System: Concerns regarding the treatment of Indian expatriates under the Kafala labor system necessitate diplomatic engagement to improve labor rights and welfare.
    • Geopolitical Balancing: As India strengthens its ties with the UAE, it must navigate its relationships with other Gulf nations and maintain a balanced approach to regional conflicts, such as the Chinese market dominance and the Israel-Palestine issue.
    • Economic Diversification: While trade is growing, there is a need to diversify economic cooperation beyond traditional sectors like energy and real estate to include technology and innovation.

    Way forward: 

    • Strengthen Labor Rights Cooperation: India and the UAE should engage in continuous diplomatic dialogues to reform labor practices, improving the welfare and rights of Indian expatriates under the Kafala system, and ensuring a more humane and fair working environment.
    • Diversify Economic and Strategic Cooperation: Both countries should focus on expanding collaboration into emerging sectors such as technology, innovation, and renewable energy while maintaining geopolitical neutrality and balancing relations with other Gulf nations.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q How will I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE and USA) grouping transform India’s position in global politics?  (UPSC IAS/2016)

  • Africa can make India’s ‘critical mineral mission’ shine  

    Why in the News?

    India has invested approximately $75 billion in Africa, focused on energy assets and mining.

    • This includes reaching out to resource-rich countries in Africa and Latin America to negotiate access to critical mineral resources.

    Recent Initiatives by the Indian Government:

    • Critical Mineral Mission (Union Budget 2024-25): This mission aimed at securing the supply of critical minerals crucial for India’s economic growth and green transition.
      • It focuses on expanding domestic production, recycling critical minerals, and incentivizing overseas acquisition.
    • Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Amendment Bill, 2023: Removes six minerals from the atomic list, allowing private sector participation in their exploration.
      • This also supports India’s drive for self-reliance in critical minerals, such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements.
    • Khanij Bidesh India Limited (KABIL): It was established in 2019 to secure overseas critical mineral assets. It Signed its first lithium exploration deal in Argentina in 2024, marking a significant step towards India’s goal of securing critical mineral supplies.

    Africa’s significance in advancing Global and Indian Priorities

    • Critical Mineral Reserves: Africa holds 30% of the world’s critical mineral reserves, making it a crucial partner for India’s supply chain needs.
    • Existing Partnerships: India has strong political, economic, and historical ties with Africa, including a three-million-strong diaspora and $98 billion in bilateral trade (2022-23), with a focus on mining and mineral sectors.
      • India has already invested $75 billion in Africa, largely for energy asset acquisition.
    • African Green Mineral Strategy: African countries are moving towards minerals-based industrialization. Policies in Tanzania, Zimbabwe, and Namibia focus on value addition, offering India an opportunity to align its critical mineral strategy with Africa’s development goals

    Major issues in Africa 

    • Sudan and Syria Issue:

        • Humanitarian Crisis: Sudan’s crisis is particularly acute due to its strategic location and resource wealth, leading to a massive displacement crisis, with over 10 million people displaced since April 2023
        • Parallel Conflicts: Both Sudan and Syria have experienced severe internal conflicts driven by authoritarian regimes, regional power plays, and foreign interventions, leading to widespread human suffering and instability.

    • India’s Strategic Considerations:

        • Economic Interests: India’s trade with Sudan reached $2,034 million in 2022-23, with a significant trade surplus. India has also invested heavily in Sudan’s oil sector, with cumulative investments worth $2.3 billion.
        • Historical Ties: India has maintained strong people-to-people ties with Sudan, including educational exchanges and medical tourism. President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam’s visit in 2003 reinforced these relations.
        • Humanitarian and Diplomatic Engagement: India evacuated its nationals early in the conflict, but the ongoing crisis may require continued diplomatic and humanitarian engagement to protect its broader interests in the region.

    • Challenges of China-Africa Debt:

      • Chinese loans to African countries amounted to approximately $170 billion from 2000 to 2022. However, Chinese lenders represent only about 12% of Africa’s total public and private debt, indicating that China is not the primary creditor.
      • A significant portion of Chinese loans is not disclosed in sovereign debt records, complicating the understanding of Africa’s overall debt levels. This lack of transparency raises concerns about the sustainability of these debts.
      • Despite concerns over “debt trap diplomacy,” China is unlikely to forgive or cancel debts but may consider writing off smaller, interest-free loans.

    China Domination:

    • China dominates the global critical mineral supply chain, particularly in cobalt mining in Africa (e.g., the Democratic Republic of Congo). China’s control poses significant risks for India, especially in terms of access and geopolitical influence.
    • Recently, China signed a $7 billion minerals-for-infrastructure deal, demonstrating its strategic approach to securing mineral resources in Africa.

    What are the opportunities for the Indian Government? (Way forward)

    • Collaborating on Infrastructure and Technology: India can support Africa’s critical mineral sector by building mining-adjacent infrastructure (e.g., railways, power grids) and providing technological solutions through its tech start-ups to enhance mining exploration, extraction, and processing.
    • Strengthening Diplomatic and Economic Ties: Leveraging existing partnerships and India’s deep historical ties with Africa, the government can work with African nations on strategic projects and value addition initiatives, supporting both regions’ developmental goals.
    • Reducing Dependence on China: By engaging with African countries for critical minerals, India can diversify its supply chains, reducing the economic and geopolitical risks posed by China’s dominance in the global critical mineral market.

  •  Singapore: A partner in India’s growth story  

    Why in the News?

    The PM’s upcoming visit to Singapore offers a chance to reflect on the current state of the relationship. India-Singapore ties are dynamic, continually presenting new opportunities.

    India-Singapore Bilateral Relations

    • Historical Ties: Diplomatic relations were established shortly after Singapore’s independence in 1965, with India being one of the first countries to recognize Singapore. 
      • The relationship has evolved through high-level visits and collaborations, particularly since the 1990s.
    • Look East Policy: Singapore has been pivotal in India’s “Look East” policy initiated in the early 1990s, which aimed to strengthen economic and strategic ties with Southeast Asia.
    • Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA): Signed in 2005, CECA has significantly enhanced trade and investment ties, making Singapore India’s largest ASEAN trading partner and a key foreign direct investment (FDI) source.
    • Defense and Security Cooperation: The bilateral relationship includes extensive defence cooperation, with joint military exercises and training, particularly in maritime security, reflecting shared strategic interests.

    What is Singapore’s contribution to India’s Growth Story?

    • Economic Hub: Singapore is India’s largest trade partner in ASEAN. Singapore serves as a crucial gateway for Indian companies seeking to expand in Southeast Asia, providing a robust platform for trade and investment.
    • Largest Source of FDI:  It is the leading source of FDI, among the largest sources of External Commercial Borrowings and Foreign Portfolio Investment, accounting for about 17% of total FDI inflows since 2000, with investments exceeding USD 136 billion over the last 22 years. 
    • Knowledge exchange: Singapore’s status as a hub for Indian talent, especially from IITs and IIMs, facilitates knowledge exchange and enhances India’s capabilities in various sectors
    • Cultural Exchange: The strong cultural ties, supported by the Indian community in Singapore, have enriched bilateral relations. Ethnic Indians constitute approximately 9.1% of Singapore’s resident population.

    How this relationship can achieve more considering the ASEAN region and Chinese dominance? (Way forward)

    • Strategic Partnership: The relationship can be further strengthened by enhancing strategic dialogues and collaborations in areas like security, technology, and sustainability, particularly in the context of the Indo-Pacific region.
    • Regional Connectivity: Initiatives like the Trilateral Highway, which aims to connect India with Myanmar and Thailand, can enhance regional connectivity and trade, positioning India and Singapore as central players in ASEAN.
    • Countering Chinese Influence: As China asserts its influence in the region, India and Singapore can collaborate more closely to address shared concerns, leveraging their partnership to promote stability and security in Southeast Asia.
    • Emerging Technologies: Focusing on emerging sectors such as semiconductors, green technologies, and electric mobility can open new avenues for cooperation, aligning with both nations’ goals for sustainable development.

  • [4th September 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: A discourse on AI governance that India must shape

    PYQ Relevance:

    Q At the international level, the bilateral relations between most nations are governed by the policy of promoting one’s own national interest without any regard for the interest of other nations. This leads to conflicts and tensions between the nations. How can ethical consideration help resolve such tensions? Discuss with specific examples. (UPSC IAS/2015)

    Q “The emergence of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (Digital Revolution) has initiated e-Governance as an integral part of government”. Discuss. (UPSC IAS/2020)

    Q Describe the major outcomes of the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). What are the commitments made by India in this conference? (UPSC IAS/2021)

    Mentor comment: The United Nations is emerging as a central forum for establishing global AI standards, facilitating dialogue among diverse national interests, and promoting international cooperation. India has a long-standing strategic role at the UN and is involved in platforms like the G-20 and the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence (GPAI). India’s historical legacy of advocating the interests of the Global South, robust engagement at international fora, and lived experiences as a Global South country make it well-positioned to lead these conversations. In today’s Editorial we will have a look at India’s advocacy for a fair and inclusive AI governance framework is also crucial in the context of bipolar dynamics between the U.S. and China, where both countries are driving the AI governance discourse to advance their strategic interests.

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    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    The Summit of the Future, taking place on September 22-23, 2024, will be a crucial event for global discussions on Artificial Intelligence (AI) governance. 

    • World leaders will gather under the United Nations during this summit to promote the Global Digital Compact (GDC).

    What are the main goals of the Global Digital Compact?

    It aims to establish a collaborative framework for addressing key digital challenges and promoting an inclusive digital future. Its main goals include:

    • Closing Digital Divides: Ensuring equitable access to digital technologies and accelerating progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
    • Expanding Inclusion: Enhancing participation and benefits from the digital economy for all individuals.
    • Fostering a Safe Digital Space: Creating an open, secure environment that respects and promotes human rights.
    • Advancing Data Governance: Promoting responsible and equitable international governance of data.
    • Strengthening AI Governance: Enhancing international governance of emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, to benefit humanity
    The present state of Geopolitical contestation

    The UN General Assembly has adopted two significant resolutions led by the U.S. and China regarding Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    U.S.-Led Resolution: Focuses on ‘Safe, Secure and Trustworthy AI for Sustainable Development’ which promotes a harmonized approach to AI governance, encouraging shared ethical principles and transparency standards. This aims to assert U.S. dominance in AI technology.

    China-Led Resolution: Emphasizes equitable benefits from AI, bridging the digital divide, and fostering an open business environment. This positions China as a key player in global trade and technology standards.

    What are the Challenges?

    • Wider gaps vs. Realm of AI: While developed countries have readily available resources, developing countries lack even the basic infrastructure, Internet access, and electricity which are absolute essentials for AI advancements.
      • This issue might be overlooked or simplified by developed economies.
    • Exacerbating Inequalities: Policies and Frameworks that fail to address the root issues faced by developing countries limit the effectiveness of global AI governance initiatives, and exacerbate existing inequalities.

    How can India leverage its historical legacy and advocacy for the Global South?

    • Engaging in Multilateral Platforms: Active participation in international forums, such as the United Nations and G-20, allows India to highlight the priorities of the Global South and shape the discourse around digital governance and AI to reflect these interests.
    • Building Coalitions: By forming alliances with other Global South nations, India can strengthen its voice in negotiations, ensuring that the concerns and perspectives of developing countries are represented in the GDC discussions.
    • Emphasizing Human-Centric Development: India can advocate for a GDC that prioritizes human rights and sustainable development, ensuring that digital policies promote social equity and economic justice for all.
    • Addressing Geopolitical Dynamics: With the current geopolitical contestation between major powers like the U.S. and China, India can position itself as a leader advocating for a balanced approach that considers the needs of the Global South, rather than allowing these powers to dominate the narrative.
    • Climate Justice Advocacy: India’s experience in international climate negotiations (during UNFCCC and CBDR) highlights its commitment to equity and justice, which can inform its approach to AI governance.

    Conclusion:

    India must underscore the importance of aligning AI development with democratic values and human rights, advocating for a collaborative approach that involves multiple stakeholders (South countries as well as North countries) to ensure that AI technologies benefit society as a whole while mitigating potential risks.

    https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-discourse-on-ai-governance-that-india-must-shape/article68602063.ece